#106 Exit, Voice, Loyalty, And Mia Khalifa

This newsletter is really a public policy thought-letter. While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought-letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways. It seeks to answer just one question: how do I think about a particular public policy problem/solution?

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India Policy Watch #1: Rahne Do, Rihanna

Insights on burning policy issues in India

- RSJ

In one of the recent editions on GameStop, I wrote about the Gamma squeeze and I was particularly pleased with myself. After all, there might not be many newsletters who over the last year could have shoehorned Dr Shreeram Lagoo, Louise Glück and Gamma squeeze into their editions. Maybe there’s someone up there who is keeping an eye out for me. Because this edition has Rihanna and Mia Khalifa (careful now) in it!

What a time to be alive and, importantly, to be writing on public policy!

The Farm Laws Backstory

We have written quite a bit on the new farm laws in the past few months. I believe the laws are critical to transforming agriculture in India. Pranay agreed on the potential of the laws but questioned the timing and the lack of a narrative by the government to make them acceptable to all stakeholders. He felt this could get sticky.

Turns out he was prescient. A simple stakeholder mapping exercise would have revealed the key farmer groups in Punjab and Haryana would be the most impacted by these laws. They needed specific attention. Further, the years of paranoia built by the Indian state itself about corporates, profits and other capitalist bogeys in farming would not just go away by a stroke of the pen. It should have been expected that it will be used by those in opposition to create a counter-narrative. A government that encourages opinions and arguments within its cabinet and among its coalition partners would have figured a way to anticipate and resolve these issues. But the usual shock and awe playbook that this dispensation favours came into play. An announcement about the new farm laws was made at the peak of the pandemic as part of the COVID relief package. Then came the ordinance, and finally the farm bills went to parliament where they were passed with a voice vote in Rajya Sabha. That, remember, was the only place where there was a half-decent chance of a debate. It was not to be.

Now you can argue that almost every party has in the past had similar laws as part of their manifesto. Or there have been umpteen committees who have recommended opening up of agriculture and dismantling of MSP. But only a political novice would believe these would mean everyone opposed to the government today would lay out the red carpet for these laws. Nothing this sensitive and transformative will be accepted in our fractured polity without building a narrative for it. But there wasn’t any strong ‘sell your story’ efforts for a set of reforms that if pitched right might have actually been supported by Greta Thunberg. After all, the groundwater depletion and other ecological imbalances in many states are because of incentives and distortions the MSP provides to grow crops alien to the land.

In A No-Win Situation

So here we are. The farmer protests have gathered strength. The government has offered an eighteen-month delay in implementing them. The commitment to continue with MSP has been made. In short, the reforms are dead in water. But it has made zero difference to protests. Because while making these conciliatory moves on one hand, the government has gone into an overdrive painting the farmers as anti-nationals and terrorists. The protests now have morphed into a Shivji ki Baraat - all kinds of assorted species are in it. Then we have the unedifying spectacle of spikes being nailed and battlefield-like fortifications on roads leading up to national capital. This is to prevent the farmers from entering it. This has now gone beyond farm laws.

Into this mix walked in Rihanna. On Tuesday, she tweeted out “Why aren’t we talking about this?’ with a link to a CNN article about headlined, ‘India cuts internet around New Delhi as protesting farmers clash with police’ to her 101 million followers. Soon Greta Thunberg and Mia Khalifa tweeted their support to the farmers. That’s it.

The radically networked societies (RNS) of their supporters coalesced with the network of Indians who were protesting the laws. So in the red corner, we had the Radically Networked Society -1 (RNS1). The government got into the act. Soon we had Indian film stars and cricketers supporting the laws (and more). And in the blue corner, we had the RNS2. To top it, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) also came out with an officious sounding formal statement asking global celebrities to stay away from matters relating to India. We now have a triangular contest of sorts - the state, RNS1 and RNS2.

Going Deeper

There are a few issues involved that merit discussion and conceptual clarity. Let me attempt to tackle them. Your thoughts are welcome.

* Like Pranay says, every issue is global by default in the times of RNS. You don’t have to be universalist to take a position on an issue that doesn’t affect you directly. Social media allows you to take a position and broadcast it to your followers. And you will. A vocal stand on issues generates cohesion among the members of your RNS. Cohesion strengthens RNS and draws more members. This is the RNS flywheel (Jeff Bezos who secretly reads us would be so proud of me for this analogy).

* Celebrities have taken a stand on issues unrelated to their countries for decades now. They are private citizens and they are free to do so. And there will be more of this kind of activism seen in future. The challenge for the state is, in the times of RNS, they can inflict serious damage on the objectives of the state by supporting a counter-narrative. I’m staying away from whether the objectives of the state are right or wrong for now. The state is hierarchical and it cannot be agile enough to contend with the speed of RNS mobilisation. The state has two options - continue with its slothful response or mobilise its own RNS. The Rihanna tweet followed by the tweets of the ‘state celebrities’ is the Indian state’s recognition of the power RNS, its own limitation to counter it through official means and its signal to others that it can mobilise its own RNS. Should states be doing this? Probably some action was needed as self-preservation is the primary goal of the state. RNS is a threat and they must learn and deploy counters to it. Also, this was a way to pre-empt other celebs from jumping on to the bandwagon. The rest of the narrative built about these celebrities being paid or being on the payroll of George Soros (that’s one guy with all the time and money with him to support leftist causes, around the world, apparently) is meaningless drivel. That’s just the loony supporters and the IT cell discrediting the other RNS. It is stupid and it helps mobilise the opposing RNS.

* The other question is how should we view Indians who encourage global celebrities, organisations or governments to take a stand on government action. Do these acts constitute support for violation of our sovereignty?

Firstly, global organisations and foreign governments do take positions on acts of other governments all the time. These positions are conveyed through diplomatic channels as a matter of routine. In case this doesn’t work they use the media to make their position known. The most common of these issues are those where there is an established global order of going about things. For instance, just last month the US Treasury department put India on the list of currency manipulators. Now, is this a violation of our sovereign right to manage our currency? We live and trade in a global order. So we should abide by its rules. Else, others will act in a manner that will question our sovereign moves. On other occasions, the issue could be of the government action violating human rights or being undemocratic. This is a tricky area since it is not easy to define them. But that hasn’t stopped India to opine on others over the years or vice versa.

Secondly, there’s no such thing as internal matter as the Indian state likes saying. In the RNS world, issues are global. Also, the farmers’ protests haven’t emerged out of thin air. There’s a cause and an effect. So, it serves no purpose to ask others to keep off our lawns if there’s smoke coming out of our house. Fixing the smoke is our problem, of course. But others asking us to have a look at it isn’t a violation of any sort. They are only making statements.

Thirdly, and this is perhaps the most important point, private citizens of India raising their voice against certain actions of the government in domestic and international platforms is not the same as treason against the state. The state exists because the citizens have given it the legitimacy to use violence. The citizens can and should question if the state steps beyond it. There’s a line there that the citizens can’t cross where their acts, not words, can threaten the existence of the state. But that line is quite distant. It can’t be invoked on the smallest of pretences. Unfortunately, this has now turned into conspiracy theories about a deep state wanting to destabilise India or preventing its pre-destined rise to being a superpower. Superpower pre-requisite #1 is to be secure enough not to wallow in conspiracy theories against you. Read more about USSR on this.

* The other point I had was about the role of institutions in a democracy. Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson have argued about the nature and the strength of institutions as the fundamental reason for the sustenance of a democracy and for its long-term economic growth. This explains why democracy has struggled to develop roots in countries like Myanmar or in many nations that won their independence following WW2. And also, why its sustains in India. All the revisionism about our history, our freedom struggle or about Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar won’t wear out a single unvarnished truth. The founding fathers of our Republic built institutions and served to strengthen them to sustain our fledgeling democracy. Why do I bring up the point on institutions here? Well, a question I have asked in the past week is what prompted a host of our celebrities to copy-paste the exact tweet to support the government? And did the irony of following a government diktat to the letter while taking a stand against propaganda was lost on them? Do they really believe in the benefits of the farm laws? Is this a show of patriotism? Or, are they toeing the line of the state because it is in their interest? Maybe it is the first two. But I’m sure there is an element of toeing the line here based on how coordinated the act was. And this toeing the line isn’t a new thing. Previous governments have done the same or worse. What do our celebs fear? Compare this with the stands taken by celebrities, sports personalities and many CEOs during the Trump era. The simple conclusion you reach is the US state can’t use its institutions to go after you. The police, the FBI and the tax authorities won’t find a hundred reasons to file charges. Their institutions are strong and they follow their own code. Plus, the state isn’t overbearing. Its laws don’t encompass every aspect of your life in a manner that you cannot ever claim you haven’t violated them. The question we must ask is what does the easy falling in line of celebrities or the fear of protesting against laws say about the state of our institutions and the nature of the state? And if our institutions are indeed weakening, what does it portend about the future of our democracy and our long-term growth prospects.

Among the great skills of the present government is how easily it can shift any discontent against its actions into the territory where it is the strongest. Nationalism. Over the years it has also built a strong media ecosystem that advances nationalism as a primary means to reach the objectives of the state - economic prosperity and protection of sovereignty. Unfortunately, history has shown nationalism is a blunt instrument to achieve sustainable prosperity. The Khalistan flags seen during protests or Rihanna’s tweets give the government ready props to fight the battle of ideas on farm laws on the grounds of nationalism. There, even if it loses the battle, it will win the war.

The question is if that holds true for India too.

Addendum

— Pranay Kotasthane

I have three short points to add to RSJ’s comprehensive take.

One, every protest should be assumed as being global by default. Gandhi’s political genius was to get the masses to participate in the freedom struggle at a low opportunity cost, by just spinning a charkha. Today, this job doesn’t require a Mahatma, it justgets done by the internet. Showing instantaneous support for any cause across the world is now almost frictionless. It can be done with low opportunity costs. Even when there’s no immediate cause, there’s work happening — latent identities get created or reinforced through social media tuned for rewarding polarisation. Come the next immediate political cause and this powder keg is ready for use. ‘Nolocus standi’ arguments are pointless.

Two, those with the lowest stakes in an issue might end up being the more powerful voices. Because the entry barrier is so low, you don’t need to have much at stake to show support. Such a scenario complicates dispute resolution as those with the highest stakes can get sidelined. Even worse, the state machinery will be hard at work to establish nefarious links between those with high stakes/low power and those with low stakes/high power, with the aim to discredit both.

And three, the more aggressive the State response, the more fodder it is for future RNSes. The State that responds, positions itself as the villain which brings together more people. It becomes the ‘other’ that creates the ‘us’. Once that happens, all that remains is the next political cause to emerge.

India Policy Watch #2: Politics and Visual Storytelling

Insights on burning policy issues in India

— Pranay Kotasthane

It irks me when someone forms a strong opinion on complex issues just by watching a Netflix series, movie, or documentary. Chernobyl and The Social Dilemma come to mind. Both these rather well-made series ended up confirming biases against nuclear power and social media respectively.

Visual storytelling is evocative. It can create powerful narratives that elicit instant responses from what Daniel Kahneman calls the fast brain. The more a visual story appeals to our emotions, the more the need to temper the fast brain response with reflection, education, and discussion.

And yet, our movies can reveal a lot about our politics. Not through what they show but through what they cannot show. For example, would it be possible today for a mainstream movie to have a plot in which a Muslim man elopes with a Hindu woman? Or would it be possible to recreate the iconic Mahabharat parody scene from Jaane Bhi Do Yaaro today?

What happened to Tandav and Munawar Faruqui indicate otherwise. This should worry us all. An insecure society abridges individual creativity and distracts the State from what it is supposed to do. It is this insecurity that paves the way for pakistanisation of a society.

PS: A French Netflix parody A Very Secret Servicecame as a refreshing change. The politically incorrect and satirical take on France’s national security apparatus spares none. I couldn’t help but rue the fact that something on these lines is unimaginable in present-day India.

India Policy Watch #3: The Constitution in a Knowledge Graph

Insights on burning policy issues in India

— Pranay Kotasthane

In #103, I had written how cool would it be to represent the Constitution as a knowledge graph. Well, one AtU reader, Rithwik, has now created one such knowledge graph and it looks stunning.

This image below is the Obsidian Knowledge Graph of the Indian Constitution. The backlinks are based on cross-referenced articles in the Constitution. One immediate thing you will notice is how disconnected the Directive Principles of State Policy section is. It’s like an afterthought.

Rithwik has helpfully put the code and all files on GitHub. We are now on the lookout for ideas to make the backlinking more intelligent and useful. If you have any such ideas, please do send a comment.

HomeWork

Reading and listening recommendations on public policy matters

* The unyielding demands of the protesters and the response of the government are both troubling, writes T.N. Ninan in the Business Standard

* [Report] The 15th Finance Commission report is out. It is a goldmine for people interested in Indian public finance. The studies commissioned by the Commission are equally useful.

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