14-Year-Old Forecaster Challenges My P(Doom) — Eli Goldfine

Eli Goldfine is an unusually thoughtful 14-year-old podcast host who’s rapidly becoming an authoritative voice in the prediction market space.

In this unique episode, Eli brings a critical yet open-minded approach to the topic of AI doom that we older folks could learn from.We cover what it's like to grow up in the AGI era, and Eli's hobbies which include reading rationalist bloggers, betting on prediction markets, vibe coding with Claude, and developing a software startup for astronomers.In our debate, Eli expects superintelligence by 2032, but argues P(Doom) can't be estimated. I claim you can't opt out of Bayesian epistemology. All aboard the Doom Train! 🚂

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bqk5vqpzG_o

Timestamps

00:00:00 — Cold Open

00:01:07 — Introducing Eli Goldfine

00:08:31 — Interviewing Robin Hanson at Manifest

00:10:55 — The Supercycle Podcast

00:14:37 — Eli's Betting Market Scandal

00:16:49 — Will Eli Graduate High School?

00:18:27 — Decentralized Telescope Software

00:26:50 — Vibe Coding Without CompSci Basics

00:32:08 — Robin Hanson, Futarchy, MetaDAO

00:40:56 — What's Your P(Doom)?™

00:46:32 — Liron Defends His 50% P(Doom)

00:51:00 — Should P(Doom) Inform Policy?

00:59:16 — What's Your P(Bloom)?

01:03:04 — Pascal's Wager for Accelerationists

01:04:04 — Donation Drive

01:11:22 — Are E/ACCs Incredibly Dumb?

01:13:42 — How Powerful will ASI Become?

01:16:20 — Predicting ASI by 2032

01:23:56 — Let's Ride the Doom Train™

01:35:26 — Orthogonality, Culture, and Moral Realism

01:44:39 — Can Safety Keep Pace with Capabilities?

01:49:12 — Debating Instrumental Convergence

01:54:40 — Culture, Laws, and the Singleton Scenario

01:59:53 — Ricardo's Law Won't Save Us

02:03:32 — The Case for Racing China

02:05:40 — Wrap-Up & Ideological Turing Test

02:10:36 — Outro from Conductor Ori

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