0:00
On February 28th, the US and Israel struck Iran.
0:03
The state of Humurs, which takes 20% of the world's all-supply, is still closed,
0:10
and they all jump from $72 US to $106.
0:13
Petrol and Sydney is already at nearly $3, and some stations are well over $3.
0:20
And if you think this is just a middle east problem, think again.
0:24
It's affecting us right here in Australia, as I'm sure you already know.
0:28
Now, Australia imports 90% of our fuel.
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We have 36 days of reserves who refineries left down from eight remain in Australia.
0:37
We are the most exposed developed nation on the planet.
0:41
I'm Matthew Fraser, an eight-figurant entrepreneur and seven-figure crypto investor.
0:46
Now, in this episode, I'm breaking down the full economic timeline
0:49
of what your groceries and airfares are about to cost and how Bitcoin fits into this picture
0:55
when the government inevitably starts printing dollars.
0:59
On February 28th, the US and Israel hit Iran.
1:03
And four weeks later, the straight-off Humurs, the choke point for 20% of the world's oil
1:08
is still effectively closed.
1:10
Now, Australia imports 90% of our fuel, and we've got about 36 days of reserves.
1:16
According to the energy minister Chris Bowen,
1:20
now, do we even believe a single word that he says?
1:25
He's basically saying right now, there's nothing to see here.
1:29
But yeah, let's see what happens there.
1:33
Now, this isn't some middle east problem.
1:35
This is smashing every Uber driver, Traiti, Mum, doing the school run,
1:40
retirees and farmers right now.
1:43
Now, if you're not stacking Bitcoin yet,
1:45
you're about to wish you had.
1:47
So stick around, this one's going to be a killer.
1:50
Right, so here's the simple version.
1:52
Iran controls the narrowest bit of water between the Persian Gulf and the open ocean.
1:58
Every day, tankers carrying Saudi, Iraqi, UAE oil, oil of it, south through there.
2:03
Now, as soon as the strike started, shipping giants shut it down.
2:07
Tankers are getting attacked.
2:09
Insurance is through the roof.
2:10
Now, the result, global oil supply just got slashed.
2:15
Now, Australia doesn't even produce enough refined petrol and diesel anymore.
2:20
We've got only like two operational refineries left in the entire country.
2:25
Ampholes, lighten refinery in Brisbane,
2:29
and Viva Energy's Geelong refinery in Victoria.
2:32
Now, these two sites together supply less than 20% of the total fuel needs.
2:38
The other 80% we import mostly from Asia.
2:42
Now, we used to have eight refineries back in 2005.
2:46
The rest have all been shut down or turned into import terminals under successive governments.
2:52
But it's Albo and Labour's reckless management that's left us exposed right now.
2:57
They've let our domestic refining capacity collapse while they subsidise
3:03
the last two just to keep the lights on.
3:05
And that's exactly why we're screwed when a crisis like this hits.
3:10
Westpac economist Pat Buster-Monte and NAB are now saying petrol could hit $2.80 to $3.
3:17
And the day of recording, it's nearly there.
3:19
Now, diesel is already well over $3.
3:22
And that's before panic buying kicks in.
3:26
Because wait for it, because as of today, they're now talking about putting in petrol caps
3:31
from anywhere between 20 to $40 per fill-up, okay?
3:36
Which is going to get you basically squadly did when it comes to filling up your car.
3:41
Now, this has already started rolling out in places like WA and Queensland.
3:46
So, what happens now when the panic starts setting in and all these
3:51
petrol caps start being implemented?
3:54
Well, step one, transport costs explode.
3:58
Every single thing you buy moves by truck or plane.
4:01
Freight companies just got hit with a 40 to 50% higher fuel bill like overnight.
4:05
So, they pass it straight on.
4:08
Step two, inflation goes nuclear.
4:12
The RBA already warned a trimmed-to-mean inflation could smash 5% in quarter two.
4:18
NAB chief economist Sally Old is now forecasting even high pressure from these petrol spikes.
4:24
NAB says, unless oil comes back down fast, we're looking at another rate hike.
4:29
And I would say way more than one.
4:31
Your mortgage just got way more expensive while your wages stay the same.
4:35
And this is all on top of Labor's reckless federal spending that's already been driving these
4:40
RBA rate rises for months.
4:43
Now, step three, business carnage.
4:46
Mining in WA, diesel powered is already cutting shifts.
4:51
Farmers can't afford to run machinery if they can even get the fuel.
4:55
Supermarkets can't keep shelves stocked without jacking prices.
4:59
Step four, the domino effect.
5:02
Airlines, Quannis and Virgin have already hiked fairs.
5:06
Jet fuel has just doubled, right?
5:08
Tourism dies, exports die, unemployment ticks up.
5:12
And then the bank starts sweating on bad loans.
5:16
Now, this is the rig system at work.
5:19
Governments and central banks have left us wide open while they print money and tell us
5:24
inflation is transitory.
5:29
Now, just to be clear, I'm no chief economist.
5:32
I'm an average bloke who's made a bit of money on the side and invests a lot into the Bitcoin
5:40
But I ran this past GROC AI.
5:44
I said, look, based on things like the GFC and COVID, what is the outcome?
5:48
What are we likely to see with petrol prices going through the roof?
5:53
And this is what they said.
5:56
Weak one to four, which is where we're basically here now, right?
6:01
Petrol is going to be up, you know, 50 per cent a litre.
6:04
Panic buying will start setting in, AFS up.
6:06
ASX has already gone down over 6 per cent.
6:10
And month one, fuel rationing torque starts, which we're already seeing now.
6:16
And some petrol stations have already implemented their own rationing system.
6:21
At the same time, you've got Albo saying, and Chris Bowen,
6:27
There's people should not be worried.
6:29
But yet, that's exactly what is happening on the ground.
6:32
There's a complete disconnect right now between what is actually happening on the ground
6:36
and what the politicians are saying.
6:38
Now, keep this in mind, though.
6:40
Albo's not going to come onto the TV and say, yep, we're fucked.
6:45
This country is doomed.
6:46
Petrol's going to go at probably $5, $6 a litre.
6:49
That you won't be able to afford groceries.
6:52
The whole economy is going to lock down.
6:54
People would go absolutely mental.
6:57
So I understand his feeding is a whole bunch of baloney to try and keep things calm
7:04
before there's rights in the street.
7:06
But I dare say that could be happening.
7:09
So month two to three, if the homo's straights stay shut,
7:15
physical shortages, right?
7:16
Diesel for mining and farms runs slow if not completely dry.
7:21
Unemployment spikes severely.
7:23
GDP growth drops sharply.
7:25
And recession territory.
7:29
Full economic unravel.
7:32
Westpac modeling shows if oil averages $90 plus dollars for a barrel.
7:37
For the quarter, we lose .1% growth minimum.
7:41
As the head of business and industry economics, Fener has laid out.
7:45
Prelonged think 2008 levels.
7:48
But with way higher inflation,
7:51
Jim Charmers has already warned that if this drags on,
7:54
inflation could push past 5% and we could see GDP take a much bigger hit.
8:00
Now government says we've got reserves for six months,
8:04
but only if no panic and no further attacks.
8:07
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8:11
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8:14
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8:59
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9:02
Now, back to the episode.
9:04
So what should we now expect in the future?
9:05
What will hit our hip pocket?
9:07
Well, let's get real about this and have a look at the weekly shop.
9:11
I think petrol will already, it's up 40, 50% already today.
9:16
So expect three to four dollars at the very least
9:20
for just your average petrol by per liter.
9:22
So you fill up a 60 litre tank,
9:24
you're looking at at least 60 to $100 plus every time you fill up.
9:30
Now, groceries or freight is 80% of the cost
9:33
for fresh food, milk, bread, meat.
9:35
So plus 30% in the next eight weeks,
9:39
NAB says overall food inflation could hit eight to 10%.
9:44
Plastics and packaging, everything from bin bags
9:48
to bottled water is oil-derived.
9:51
So expect that to be 25 to 40% increase.
9:54
Air fairs and holidays, jet fuel just doubled.
9:58
Quantists already announced hikes, domestic flights,
10:01
up 30% and international flights, up 50%.
10:05
I honestly don't know who is even contemplating now
10:09
having to travel unless it's an absolute emergency.
10:13
Fertilizer and farming inputs up massively.
10:16
So fruit, veggies, dairy, probably follow in three to four months.
10:22
Closed toys, electronics, polyester, shipping, everything is going to be up.
10:27
So basically guys, if it moves or is made from oil,
10:31
it's getting way more expensive.
10:33
Your $100 weekly shop becomes $150 to $200 real quick.
10:38
I mean, I just went to the grocery store three days ago,
10:41
came back with three bags.
10:43
Over $300, I mean, it's absolutely insane.
10:48
Now, the part that you guys have been waiting for.
10:52
While stocks tanked and gold barely moved, Bitcoin is up roughly seven to 10%
10:57
since the strikes started.
10:59
So sitting at around 71,000 USD and showing real resilience,
11:04
a lot of people say that this is really the base
11:07
or the benchmark now moving forward.
11:10
It did for a day when oil first spiked and then decoupled hard.
11:13
ETF inflows have stayed strong and Michael Saylor continues to put
11:18
the pedal to the metal and push a lot of money into Bitcoin
11:22
into the tune of billions of dollars.
11:24
Because the smart money knows,
11:26
fear currencies and the dollar system get wrecked in these energy shocks.
11:30
Inflation hedge, portable, no counter party.
11:34
Now, we saw the same thing in 2022 with the Russia Ukraine war.
11:38
BTC dipped and then it roared.
11:41
Past oil crisis has crushed economies hard, but assets won.
11:46
Bitcoin is the new gold on steroids.
11:49
Now, during this exact war while the S&P failed 2%,
11:52
Bitcoin rose 2.4% in the same period and has kept climbing.
11:57
It's already acting like the geopolitical hedge of this need.
12:01
Now, like I said before, I'm no chief economist,
12:04
accountant or anything like that.
12:07
I research a lot about the history of money and Bitcoin.
12:11
But I don't know much about war tactics.
12:13
I don't know what Trump's doing.
12:14
I certainly don't know what Australia seemed to be doing.
12:17
It would seem to be absolutely nothing
12:19
when it comes looking after the people.
12:21
But let me talk about Simon Dixon and what his take is
12:26
He's the bloke from BTC sessions and bank to the future.
12:30
Go and research him.
12:32
He says, stop watching the missiles and start watching the money.
12:36
Now, this isn't just a nation-state war.
12:39
It's the financial industrial complex using the chaos
12:43
to demolish the old dollar-based order
12:45
so they can rebuild a multipolar world with new contracts.
12:49
Military industrial complex gets the weapons spending.
12:53
But the banks and big finance are already pricing in
12:56
the reconstruction phase.
13:00
The war drains munitions, spikes oil, weekends,
13:05
some currencies short-term.
13:06
The dollar actually strengthened a bit at first.
13:09
But sets up the next system.
13:11
So Russia quietly wins energy dominance
13:14
and China sits back.
13:16
Now, what about for everyday Australians?
13:18
If you've got Bitcoin in self-custody,
13:22
If the ultimate hedge, portable wealth,
13:24
no one can freeze it when the banks or governments
13:27
get desperate and I'm sure they will,
13:30
you keep your purchasing power
13:31
while inflation eats everyone else.
13:34
So it's sovereign wealth.
13:36
Now, if you've got zero Bitcoin,
13:38
you're stuck in the system.
13:40
Your super gets hammered by the inflation and rate hikes,
13:44
wages lag, house prices might stall
13:47
while everything else costs more.
13:49
You're the one paying for the reconstruction contracts
13:52
that the big players are already signing.
13:54
So Dixon's bottom line.
13:56
Bitcoin is the self-custody trade of this reset.
14:00
Aussies who move early protect their families.
14:04
Those who don't, well, the system wins again.
14:07
Right, so when does the government actually start printing
14:10
a ton of cash like they do in every crisis?
14:14
Think back to COVID.
14:16
How much money did they print?
14:18
Think about what happened to everything.
14:21
Everything went up in value,
14:23
but it was inflation pushing things up
14:25
like properties, cars, everything.
14:28
Now, if you weren't holding hard assets,
14:30
you got absolutely screwed.
14:32
So look, the RBA is not flipping the switch yet
14:35
on printing the money.
14:37
There's still hiking rates like mad
14:38
trying to kill this inflation fire
14:40
from the oil shock and labor's complete mismanagement.
14:46
Once this fuel crisis tips us
14:48
into full-blown recession in the next maybe two to four months,
14:52
they'll unleash quantitative easing
14:55
bigger than the entire COVID era.
14:58
Now, some analysts are already calling it
15:00
stagflation on steroids.
15:03
Dets already threw the roof, unemployment's climbing,
15:06
and this is after years of elbow and labor's
15:09
reckless federal spending.
15:12
They'll have no choice but to pump billions and billions
15:15
back into the system to stop the whole thing collapsing.
15:18
So we saw it in 2020.
15:21
This time, it could be double
15:23
because the systems even more rigid and fragile.
15:27
And here's the kicker for Bitcoin.
15:28
The ultimate hard asset.
15:30
If every single time governments print like this
15:32
to paper over their messes,
15:34
fear currency gets absolutely debased
15:37
and Bitcoin goes parabolic.
15:40
We watched it after COVID.
15:42
Now it'll be on steroids again.
15:45
So while everyone's savings gets eaten alive by inflation
15:49
and your dollar buys less and less,
15:51
your self-custody Bitcoin stack just protects
15:54
and multiplies your real wealth.
15:56
No counterparty, no government can touch it.
16:00
And that's why smart money is already stacking
16:03
because Bitcoin isn't just money.
16:05
It's your escape hatch from the printing press
16:08
that's coming for every Aussie without it.
16:10
So there it is, guys.
16:11
The Iran War fuel crisis is already hitting us
16:14
and it can unravel the economy in just a few short months.
16:18
Every day prices are going to go up fast
16:20
and Bitcoin is proving it's the hedge.
16:23
And with the government about to print bigger than COVID
16:26
after elbow and labors reckless spending left us
16:29
this exposed, the smart move is clear.
16:32
Stack Bitcoin, self-custody it,
16:35
use it inside your Esmasaf if you can.
16:38
It's the lowest-hanging fruit to protect you
16:41
against the currency debasement into the future.
16:44
And the fastest way to learn exactly
16:46
how we're doing it in Australia,
16:47
join Australia's fastest growing free crypto community
16:50
right now, link in the description
16:53
and pinned in the comments.
16:54
So guys, let me know how you're feeling
16:56
about this energy shock, the fuel prices
16:58
that are already at sky high prices.
17:00
Are the politicians telling us a bunch of furfies
17:03
or are they just trying to keep things calm
17:06
and just do the right thing and show true leadership?
17:08
Smash the like button if this opened your eyes
17:10
or you wanna join the conversation
17:12
and I'll see you in the next one.
17:15
In the meantime, build sovereign wealth.
17:17
The system isn't coming to save you,
17:19
but Bitcoin will take it.
17:22
Hey, thanks for tuning into Crypto Collective.
17:24
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17:25
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17:27
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17:29
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17:30
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17:31
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17:36
Also, if you're ready to level up your crypto journey,
17:39
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17:41
It's the platform that I trust
17:43
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17:46
You can also find more of me at I'm Matthew Fraser
17:49
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