#169 - How The Iran War Can Collapse Australia’s Economy

On February 28th, the US and Israel struck Iran.

The state of Humurs, which takes 20% of the world's all-supply, is still closed,

and they all jump from $72 US to $106.

Petrol and Sydney is already at nearly $3, and some stations are well over $3.

And if you think this is just a middle east problem, think again.

It's affecting us right here in Australia, as I'm sure you already know.

Now, Australia imports 90% of our fuel.

We have 36 days of reserves who refineries left down from eight remain in Australia.

We are the most exposed developed nation on the planet.

I'm Matthew Fraser, an eight-figurant entrepreneur and seven-figure crypto investor.

Now, in this episode, I'm breaking down the full economic timeline

of what your groceries and airfares are about to cost and how Bitcoin fits into this picture

when the government inevitably starts printing dollars.

On February 28th, the US and Israel hit Iran.

And four weeks later, the straight-off Humurs, the choke point for 20% of the world's oil

is still effectively closed.

Now, Australia imports 90% of our fuel, and we've got about 36 days of reserves.

According to the energy minister Chris Bowen,

now, do we even believe a single word that he says?

Absolutely not.

He's basically saying right now, there's nothing to see here.

There's no crisis.

But yeah, let's see what happens there.

Now, this isn't some middle east problem.

This is smashing every Uber driver, Traiti, Mum, doing the school run,

retirees and farmers right now.

Now, if you're not stacking Bitcoin yet,

you're about to wish you had.

So stick around, this one's going to be a killer.

Let's dive in.

Right, so here's the simple version.

Iran controls the narrowest bit of water between the Persian Gulf and the open ocean.

Every day, tankers carrying Saudi, Iraqi, UAE oil, oil of it, south through there.

Now, as soon as the strike started, shipping giants shut it down.

Tankers are getting attacked.

Insurance is through the roof.

Now, the result, global oil supply just got slashed.

Now, Australia doesn't even produce enough refined petrol and diesel anymore.

We've got only like two operational refineries left in the entire country.

Ampholes, lighten refinery in Brisbane,

and Viva Energy's Geelong refinery in Victoria.

Now, these two sites together supply less than 20% of the total fuel needs.

The other 80% we import mostly from Asia.

Now, we used to have eight refineries back in 2005.

The rest have all been shut down or turned into import terminals under successive governments.

But it's Albo and Labour's reckless management that's left us exposed right now.

They've let our domestic refining capacity collapse while they subsidise

the last two just to keep the lights on.

And that's exactly why we're screwed when a crisis like this hits.

Westpac economist Pat Buster-Monte and NAB are now saying petrol could hit $2.80 to $3.

And the day of recording, it's nearly there.

Now, diesel is already well over $3.

And that's before panic buying kicks in.

Because wait for it, because as of today, they're now talking about putting in petrol caps

from anywhere between 20 to $40 per fill-up, okay?

Which is going to get you basically squadly did when it comes to filling up your car.

Now, this has already started rolling out in places like WA and Queensland.

So, what happens now when the panic starts setting in and all these

petrol caps start being implemented?

Well, step one, transport costs explode.

Every single thing you buy moves by truck or plane.

Freight companies just got hit with a 40 to 50% higher fuel bill like overnight.

So, they pass it straight on.

Step two, inflation goes nuclear.

The RBA already warned a trimmed-to-mean inflation could smash 5% in quarter two.

NAB chief economist Sally Old is now forecasting even high pressure from these petrol spikes.

NAB says, unless oil comes back down fast, we're looking at another rate hike.

And I would say way more than one.

Your mortgage just got way more expensive while your wages stay the same.

And this is all on top of Labor's reckless federal spending that's already been driving these

RBA rate rises for months.

Now, step three, business carnage.

Mining in WA, diesel powered is already cutting shifts.

Farmers can't afford to run machinery if they can even get the fuel.

Supermarkets can't keep shelves stocked without jacking prices.

Step four, the domino effect.

Airlines, Quannis and Virgin have already hiked fairs.

Jet fuel has just doubled, right?

Tourism dies, exports die, unemployment ticks up.

And then the bank starts sweating on bad loans.

Now, this is the rig system at work.

Governments and central banks have left us wide open while they print money and tell us

inflation is transitory.

It's bullshit.

It's here.

Now, just to be clear, I'm no chief economist.

I'm an average bloke who's made a bit of money on the side and invests a lot into the Bitcoin

crypto space.

But I ran this past GROC AI.

I said, look, based on things like the GFC and COVID, what is the outcome?

What are we likely to see with petrol prices going through the roof?

And this is what they said.

Weak one to four, which is where we're basically here now, right?

Petrol is going to be up, you know, 50 per cent a litre.

Panic buying will start setting in, AFS up.

ASX has already gone down over 6 per cent.

And month one, fuel rationing torque starts, which we're already seeing now.

And some petrol stations have already implemented their own rationing system.

At the same time, you've got Albo saying, and Chris Bowen,

everything's great.

There's people should not be worried.

But yet, that's exactly what is happening on the ground.

There's a complete disconnect right now between what is actually happening on the ground

and what the politicians are saying.

Now, keep this in mind, though.

Albo's not going to come onto the TV and say, yep, we're fucked.

This country is doomed.

Petrol's going to go at probably $5, $6 a litre.

That you won't be able to afford groceries.

The whole economy is going to lock down.

People would go absolutely mental.

So I understand his feeding is a whole bunch of baloney to try and keep things calm

before there's rights in the street.

But I dare say that could be happening.

So month two to three, if the homo's straights stay shut,

physical shortages, right?

Diesel for mining and farms runs slow if not completely dry.

Unemployment spikes severely.

GDP growth drops sharply.

And recession territory.

Month six plus.

Full economic unravel.

Westpac modeling shows if oil averages $90 plus dollars for a barrel.

For the quarter, we lose .1% growth minimum.

As the head of business and industry economics, Fener has laid out.

Prelonged think 2008 levels.

But with way higher inflation,

Jim Charmers has already warned that if this drags on,

inflation could push past 5% and we could see GDP take a much bigger hit.

Now government says we've got reserves for six months,

but only if no panic and no further attacks.

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Now, back to the episode.

So what should we now expect in the future?

What will hit our hip pocket?

Well, let's get real about this and have a look at the weekly shop.

I think petrol will already, it's up 40, 50% already today.

So expect three to four dollars at the very least

for just your average petrol by per liter.

So you fill up a 60 litre tank,

you're looking at at least 60 to $100 plus every time you fill up.

Now, groceries or freight is 80% of the cost

for fresh food, milk, bread, meat.

So plus 30% in the next eight weeks,

NAB says overall food inflation could hit eight to 10%.

Plastics and packaging, everything from bin bags

to bottled water is oil-derived.

So expect that to be 25 to 40% increase.

Air fairs and holidays, jet fuel just doubled.

Quantists already announced hikes, domestic flights,

up 30% and international flights, up 50%.

I honestly don't know who is even contemplating now

having to travel unless it's an absolute emergency.

Fertilizer and farming inputs up massively.

So fruit, veggies, dairy, probably follow in three to four months.

Closed toys, electronics, polyester, shipping, everything is going to be up.

So basically guys, if it moves or is made from oil,

it's getting way more expensive.

Your $100 weekly shop becomes $150 to $200 real quick.

I mean, I just went to the grocery store three days ago,

came back with three bags.

Over $300, I mean, it's absolutely insane.

Now, the part that you guys have been waiting for.

While stocks tanked and gold barely moved, Bitcoin is up roughly seven to 10%

since the strikes started.

So sitting at around 71,000 USD and showing real resilience,

a lot of people say that this is really the base

or the benchmark now moving forward.

It did for a day when oil first spiked and then decoupled hard.

ETF inflows have stayed strong and Michael Saylor continues to put

the pedal to the metal and push a lot of money into Bitcoin

into the tune of billions of dollars.

Because the smart money knows,

fear currencies and the dollar system get wrecked in these energy shocks.

Inflation hedge, portable, no counter party.

Now, we saw the same thing in 2022 with the Russia Ukraine war.

BTC dipped and then it roared.

Past oil crisis has crushed economies hard, but assets won.

Bitcoin is the new gold on steroids.

Now, during this exact war while the S&P failed 2%,

Bitcoin rose 2.4% in the same period and has kept climbing.

It's already acting like the geopolitical hedge of this need.

Now, like I said before, I'm no chief economist,

accountant or anything like that.

I research a lot about the history of money and Bitcoin.

But I don't know much about war tactics.

I don't know what Trump's doing.

I certainly don't know what Australia seemed to be doing.

It would seem to be absolutely nothing

when it comes looking after the people.

But let me talk about Simon Dixon and what his take is

on this Iran war.

He's the bloke from BTC sessions and bank to the future.

Go and research him.

He says, stop watching the missiles and start watching the money.

Now, this isn't just a nation-state war.

It's the financial industrial complex using the chaos

to demolish the old dollar-based order

so they can rebuild a multipolar world with new contracts.

Military industrial complex gets the weapons spending.

But the banks and big finance are already pricing in

the reconstruction phase.

Now, Simon's take.

The war drains munitions, spikes oil, weekends,

some currencies short-term.

The dollar actually strengthened a bit at first.

But sets up the next system.

So Russia quietly wins energy dominance

and China sits back.

Now, what about for everyday Australians?

If you've got Bitcoin in self-custody,

you freaking win.

If the ultimate hedge, portable wealth,

no one can freeze it when the banks or governments

get desperate and I'm sure they will,

you keep your purchasing power

while inflation eats everyone else.

So it's sovereign wealth.

Now, if you've got zero Bitcoin,

you're stuck in the system.

Your super gets hammered by the inflation and rate hikes,

wages lag, house prices might stall

while everything else costs more.

You're the one paying for the reconstruction contracts

that the big players are already signing.

So Dixon's bottom line.

Bitcoin is the self-custody trade of this reset.

Aussies who move early protect their families.

Those who don't, well, the system wins again.

Right, so when does the government actually start printing

a ton of cash like they do in every crisis?

Think back to COVID.

How much money did they print?

Think about what happened to everything.

Everything went up in value,

but it was inflation pushing things up

like properties, cars, everything.

Now, if you weren't holding hard assets,

you got absolutely screwed.

So look, the RBA is not flipping the switch yet

on printing the money.

There's still hiking rates like mad

trying to kill this inflation fire

from the oil shock and labor's complete mismanagement.

But mark my words.

Once this fuel crisis tips us

into full-blown recession in the next maybe two to four months,

they'll unleash quantitative easing

bigger than the entire COVID era.

Now, some analysts are already calling it

stagflation on steroids.

Dets already threw the roof, unemployment's climbing,

and this is after years of elbow and labor's

reckless federal spending.

They'll have no choice but to pump billions and billions

back into the system to stop the whole thing collapsing.

So we saw it in 2020.

This time, it could be double

because the systems even more rigid and fragile.

And here's the kicker for Bitcoin.

The ultimate hard asset.

If every single time governments print like this

to paper over their messes,

fear currency gets absolutely debased

and Bitcoin goes parabolic.

We watched it after COVID.

Now it'll be on steroids again.

So while everyone's savings gets eaten alive by inflation

and your dollar buys less and less,

your self-custody Bitcoin stack just protects

and multiplies your real wealth.

No counterparty, no government can touch it.

And that's why smart money is already stacking

because Bitcoin isn't just money.

It's your escape hatch from the printing press

that's coming for every Aussie without it.

So there it is, guys.

The Iran War fuel crisis is already hitting us

and it can unravel the economy in just a few short months.

Every day prices are going to go up fast

and Bitcoin is proving it's the hedge.

And with the government about to print bigger than COVID

after elbow and labors reckless spending left us

this exposed, the smart move is clear.

Stack Bitcoin, self-custody it,

use it inside your Esmasaf if you can.

It's the lowest-hanging fruit to protect you

against the currency debasement into the future.

And the fastest way to learn exactly

how we're doing it in Australia,

join Australia's fastest growing free crypto community

right now, link in the description

and pinned in the comments.

So guys, let me know how you're feeling

about this energy shock, the fuel prices

that are already at sky high prices.

Are the politicians telling us a bunch of furfies

or are they just trying to keep things calm

and just do the right thing and show true leadership?

Smash the like button if this opened your eyes

or you wanna join the conversation

and I'll see you in the next one.

In the meantime, build sovereign wealth.

The system isn't coming to save you,

but Bitcoin will take it.

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Take care.