Is inflation actually cooling—or just being measured differently?
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down Truflation’s real-time inflation readings (built from millions of point-of-purchase prices across multiple providers) versus the official CPI/PCE framework, which relies far more on surveys and sampling.
We’ll also address the big caveat: neither CPI/PCE nor Truflation perfectly captures what you feel “in the shops,” because inflation varies by geography, income group, and what you actually buy. The aggregate number can hide the lived experience.
0:00 - INTRO
0:19 - Employment Data Continues to Weaken
4:10 - Finishing up Earnings Season
10:36 - Truflation & Kevin Warsh's Hawkishness
12:36 - The Truflation Conundrum vs CPI
16:12 - The Reflation Trade vs Real Economy
20:49 - Cheaper Fritos & Texas Chili (no beans)
21:48 - Tariff Impact on Inflation
23:33 - Value vs Growth
26:11 - Why Portfolio Positioning Matters
28:05 - More Chili (with beans & Broccoli)
29:27 - Software Services vs AI
30:29 - The Risk Facing Oracle
35:22 - Leverage Kills
40:11 - The Lesson in Narratives
41:37 - Warsh vs Powell - Is there a difference?
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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