2291: $10M Bitcoin Incoming - 401(k) Trillions Enter Bitcoin

Hey y'all, it's Kelly Clarkson with Wayfair, where delivery and setup are as easy as a few taps on your phone.

Picture this, you're relaxing in an old hammock, scrolling Wayfair's app when you spot it, a brand new patio set.

Next thing you know, Wayfair delivers it right to your patio and sets it up.

Oh, you need a new grill too? All right, Wayfair's got you covered.

With Wayfair's room of choice delivery and fast expert setup on qualifying orders, life gets a little easier.

Visit Wayfair.com or the Wayfair app.

Wayfair every style, every home.

Welcome Bitcoin fam to the number one Bitcoin pod.

In today's show, we shall discuss a $10 million Bitcoin supply shock forming inside America's retirement system.

That's right, breaking news, White House Clear's review for Proposal to allow crypto and 401k retirement plans tapping into a $13 trillion market.

Also, Michael Saylor's strategy dominates DAT Bitcoin buying as Treasury demand collapses.

Also, Merra sells 1.1 billion in Bitcoin to buy back debt at a 9%.

This count, we'll also discuss Fidelity's new Bitcoin study, challenges the traditional 6040 portfolio.

I'll also be breaking down the latest technical analysis and everything you need to know in the market.

All this plus so much more right here in today's show.

Today is pod episode 2,291.

It's March 26, 2026.

Let's kick it off with our feature story of the day.

You know, I always bring the heat.

We have a $10 million Bitcoin supply shock, maybe forming inside George Foreman, that is.

Inside America's retirement system and almost nobody is talking about it.

So yeah, headline here today, and this is why this sparked this topic.

White House Clear's review for Proposal to allow crypto and 401k retirement plans.

And I'll dissect this here in a second, but first, I want to hit you with what I came up with.

When you include all employer-based, the fine contribution retirement plans, the number rises to 13.9 trillion in capital,

which Bitcoin will be able to tap into once this is approved.

This is the backbone of the American retirement system.

In fact, if any of you have any 401k, let me know in the comments.

I don't have any, nor does Nipinator, I'm just saying.

But anyways, for decades, that money flowed into the same assets, stocks, bonds, and mutual funds.

Bitcoin simply wasn't a part of the equation yet.

But something is beginning to change.

Large financial institutions are quietly building that infrastructure,

which allows retirement accounts to gain that exposure to the BTC.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs now exist as of January 11, 2024.

And in two years, BlackRock, Ibit, the largest, most successful Bitcoin ETF in general,

the most successful one of all time, accumulated over 800,000 Bitcoin.

In two years, let that sink in, and that's one asset manager.

You also have major custodians, securely storing institutional Bitcoin,

such as Coinbase Prime.

They're the custodian for strategy via sailors, company, BlackRock, and many others.

And retirement platforms beginning to explore Bitcoin allocations inside the long-term portfolios.

And at first, the allocations are small, one percent, two percent,

and even Bank of America, as saying, recommending 4 percent now.

You know what I mean?

That's the start.

But even those tiny percentages become enormous when applied to trillions of dollars.

Because the moment retirement capital begins allocating the Bitcoin, the demand shock becomes massive.

This is exactly why BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink recently warned that even the small

institutional allocations of Bitcoin would send the price to 700,000 per coin.

And this is where the real story begins.

Bitcoin still operates inside a market that is tiny compared to the capital now circling it.

At today's market cap is roughly 1.4 trillion in total market value,

which means it's literally half the market cap of Microsoft, which is exceeding 3 trillion.

Gold alone, though, sits at 36 trillion.

And when gold peaked at the all-time high of like 5,700 announced, it surpassed 40 trillion.

Global bond markets exceed 145 trillion.

And the global real estate market exceeds 390 trillion.

And Bitcoin's demonetizing all of these pulls a capital.

Retirement capital represents another massive ocean of money.

And now, Bitcoin's appearance on the radar.

But demand is only half the equation.

This is where things get very interesting.

The other half is the supply.

As Bitcoin supply behaves very differently than traditional assets.

There is no board of directors that can issue more shares.

Thank God for that.

And there is no central bank that can expand supply during periods of high demand or a war.

Thank God for that as well.

Bitcoin's monetary policy is fixed, permanent, and unchangeable.

That's a beautiful thing.

The total supply was programmed from Satoshi in the very beginning.

21 million hardcap baby finite.

But here's the part many investors misunderstand.

The theoretical supply to Bitcoin is not the same thing as the tradable supply.

Because the amount of Bitcoin that actually circulates through the markets

is obviously far smaller than the total that exists over the past decade.

Enormous quantities of Bitcoin migrated to the long-term storage.

Early adopters hold large reserves that rarely move.

Institutional buyers are building strategic treasuries,

which we're witnessing in real time at unprecedented levels.

Thanks to strategy, right?

And Bitcoin needs to have absorbed thousands of coins every week.

And Sailor just proposed another $42 billion acquisition plan

to buy more Bitcoin.

So the corporate balance sheets now contain Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

There's in fact now over 200 companies following in the Sailor Playbook.

And every time Bitcoin moves into long-term storage,

it effectively disappears from the liquid trading supply.

The coins still exist, but they're no longer available to buy.

Which means something's subtle.

But powerful is happening at the same time.

Inside the bitty market, the pool of capital interested in buying the Bitcoin keeps expanding.

Meanwhile, I also want to talk to Sampson.

But the amount of Bitcoin actually available to purchase, obviously, is shrinking.

This is how supply shocks form.

And when supply shock meets trillions of dollars of income in capital,

markets do not move gradually.

They reprice violently.

First 200 G's will double, maybe 250.

The current firmament.

Then 500 G's then a million.

That's right.

But if retirement capital begins allocating at Bitcoin at the scale,

those numbers may simply represent only early milestones.

Because trillions of dollars cannot enter a fixed supply asset quietly.

It forces a complete repricing of the entire network,

the kind of repricing which eventually produces numbers.

That markets, once believed, were impossible.

And that's where these numbers come from.

5 million per coin, 10 million per coin.

We've even heard sayler predict 21 million per coin or more.

Not because of the hype.

It's simple mathematics, simple supply demand.

Bitcoin is gradually moving from niche technology asset

into the architecture of the global finance.

And the moment retirement capital begins allocating in size,

the transition accelerates dramatically,

which leads to a question that very few investors are even asking.

Because when demand explodes and supply cannot expand,

price only has one direction to move.

So what happens to Bitcoin's price when trillions of dollars

in retirement capital begin competing for an asset

whose supply can never increase?

That's my question for you today.

Let me know in the comments.

And here's another example.

If just 5% of US retirement capital allocates the Bitcoin,

that's roughly $700 billion entering a $1.4 trillion market.

And Bitcoin's supply can expand.

The math gets interesting fast.

You feel me.

But there you go, yo.

And actually as a bonus, I want to read this one to you.

I posted this last night, very short post,

but very powerful.

For over a decade, the high-priest Max Kaiser

warned about the coming global hash war.

Most people thought Bitcoin was just a trade.

Now the corporations are hoarding it.

ETFs are absorbing supply.

Nation states are entering the race.

The first Bitcoin superpower hasn't been fully revealed yet.

But when it is, the world order changes overnight.

And there you go, yo.

Which nation do you think that will be?

Could it be a China or Russia?

Will it be the US if we actually move forward

with this strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order,

which got signed back in March of 2025,

but nothing has happened?

Let me know.

But we all know Bitcoin Country got the strategic first mover's advantage.

Thanks to President Buchelle,

making Bitcoin illegal tender back in 2021.

I refuse to have my asset tied up in an account

that I have to pay a penalty for accessing.

I'd rather have a Bitcoin stack

than I can liquidate when I need it.

And this is a great point.

We often talk about Bitcoin ETFs

and we talk about strategy,

you know, the largest corporate player.

Self-custody is superior to all that

because you're holding down their lying asset

versus paper, Bitcoin.

You know what I mean?

So there's no second best when it comes to that.

And it's important we preach this message

because only properly self-custody Bitcoin

is uncomfuscatable.

We cannot say the same regarding ETFs

or strategy or any corporate treasury play

because the government or lizard folk behind the government

can sickle handedly, you know,

create a Bitcoin seizure act.

And just like they did in 1933 with gold.

Yeah, I mean, let's dive into our next story of the day.

White House clears review for the proposal

to allow the 401k retirement plan.

That's right.

White House Office of Information

of the regulatory affairs has completed its review

of the Department of Labor Proposal

which would reshape how 401k fiduciaries

evaluate alternative assets including digital assets.

Their website shows the review concluded on March 24th,

which was two days ago,

with the action mark consistent with change

and proposed classified as economically significant.

They also said they now expect to publish

the proposed rule for the standard 60-day public comment period

which is usually followed by revisions

and issuing of the final rule.

The proposal allows President Trump's August 7th, 2025

executive order directing federal agencies

to expand access to alternative assets

and 401k's including exposure to digital assets

to certain investment vehicles.

The order directed to reevaluate restrictions

around alternative assets

and define contribution plans

including obviously digital assets like Bitcoin,

private equity, and even real estate.

It also called for interagency collaborations

between the U.S. Department Treasury and the SEC.

The completed review clears an interagency hurdle

for proposal which would widen the path

for alternative assets.

The U.S. defined contribution for retirement plans.

Also, crypto-linked exposures are moving closer

to 401k market.

For example, May 28th,

they rescinded the 2022 compliance release

urging fiduciaries to be extremely cautious

when considering crypto for 401k retirement plans.

I'd be very cautious

having no exposure to Bitcoin,

but that shouldn't be me.

Signalling a broader shift

in the federal government's stance

towards retirement plan exposure

to digital assets.

Meanwhile, the U.S. retirement market

reached the record 48 trillion.

Shit, I didn't even know it was that much.

You know, I looked it up on Google

and it was only 13 trillion.

So it's much, much bigger pool of capital

than I even anticipated.

That's good.

Excellent.

Also, Indiana advances crypto retirement access.

Other U.S. states have lost

their own legal initiatives

to make digital asset

a retirement plan asset.

For example, that was back February 25th.

Indiana lawmakers passed the bill

which would require certain state retirement

and saving plans to offer a self-directed

brokerage option

with at least one crypto investment option

by July 1st, 2027.

The bill would allow Indiana citizens

to hold Bitcoin and digital assets

as a part of the retirement plan for the first time.

But there you go, yo.

I mean, this is just the beginning.

Again, a pretty significant pool of capital in 401K

and it's one of the smaller pools of capital

but Bitcoin will be demonetizing all asset classes

as a wise man once said,

it's all going to zero against the pretty little bitty.

Next up, Michael Saylor's strategy

dominates DAT Bitcoin buying as Treasury Domain collapses.

Here's some of the highlights.

Corporate Bitcoin buying is effectively consolidated

around a single firm known as strategy,

formerly known as the MicroStrategy,

MSTR, which acquired about 45,000 Bitcoin

to the past month.

I think they just recently exceeded

what was it, 760,000 bitties.

While all other Treasury companies together

bought only about 1,000 Bitcoin.

So Saylor's purchasing effectively

45 times the amount of Bitcoin

than all the other Treasury's combined.

Hence, there's no second best

when it comes to Bitcoin Treasury company.

Got a Michael Saylor, and then there's everyone else.

Strategy now holds roughly 76%

of all the Bitcoin owned by the Treasury companies.

Got a monopoly here.

It's like owning boardwalk and park place

with the hotels and all that shit.

Creating a concentration risk of the trade

once pitched as broadening institutional ownership

of the asset, quite hilarious.

But clearly becoming the largest Bitcoin bank,

which is his ultimate ambition.

Now the downturn for the Bitcoin price above 110.

Actually, we hit the 126 firmament

back in October, fourth quarter of last year

and has been downhill since yo.

We recently bottomed out at like 59.9.

Let me know if you guys think the bottom is in.

Corporate Bitcoin buying is narrowed

to a single company, clearly strategy

large corporate hot all over the world.

Purchase roughly 45,000, no joke.

There's massive accumulation.

This chart says it all.

It shows you the number of Bitcoin purchases

made by other Treasury companies skyrocketed

54 in a 30 day period.

That was back in August of 2025

in the middle of the Bitcoin Treasury summer.

That's when everyone was following

in the Saylor playbook, but look at now.

It's just Saylor doing this thing.

Again, purchasing 45 times more

than all the other corporate Treasury plays compiled together.

Every other company combined brought only a thousand

Bitcoin in the same period.

That's a 99% decline from a peak of 69,000 Bitcoin in August

the last year.

Their share of the total purchases

collapsed to 2% from 95% at the height of the trade.

Saylor strategy, again, 76%, you know,

and you're right now.

The scenario has played out exactly as described.

Also July, August 2025.

The summer of the companies were accumulating.

Bitcoin was 110, you know, back then.

Strategy moved to insulate itself,

disclosing December 1.44 billion cash reserve.

And recently, he just announced another $42 billion raise.

I believe it was 21 million via MSTR,

which is, you know, the stock.

And then also one of the other products,

which is the high yield STRC stretch,

a raising another additional 21 billion in capital,

being raised via the infinite money glitch

known as the Saylor put.

And then that's all going to flow in the Bitcoin.

So I mean, I think Saylor's accumulation

is only accelerating.

He's still doing billion dollar buys.

No one else is nowhere near what he is doing right now.

As far as, you know, corporate plays are concerned,

but very fascinating.

Saylor, you know, already has over 3% of the entire

circulating Bitcoin supply.

He'll soon have 5% when he hits a million,

which is fast approaching.

I predict it'll happen probably in the second

or third quarter of this year.

And he's not going to slow down there, you know,

eventually have 10% of the supply and the race is on.

Black rocks, I bit, the larger CTF has roughly 800,000

bits going similar to Saylor.

So we'll see who gets to a million first.

Let me know who you think will succeed.

First crossed the finish line,

which is really just the start of the race,

because it's a motherfucking marathon.

Next breaking story of the day,

Mara sells 1.1 billion in Bitcoin.

To buy back dead at a 9% discount,

maybe it's some form of a trickery here.

Let's break it down.

Mara sold more than a billion of Bitcoin in March

to repurchase convertible debt at a discount,

using his Bitcoin holdings to reduce leverage.

Interesting.

The US SEC filing the largest listed US Bitcoin minor

said it would buy back $1 billion of zero coupon

convertible notes due to 2030 and 2031 for roughly 913

million cash, capture an 88 million in savings,

close to 9% discount on par.

The company said it just sold 15,000 Bitcoin

for around 1.1 billion between March 4th and the 25th.

That sucks.

To fund the transactions,

which it said would cut the outstanding convertible debt,

by 30% to roughly 2.3 billion once the deals close

at the end of the month.

According to Bitcoin Treasuries.net,

Mara now only holds 38,000 Bitcoin

on the public balance sheet.

Damn.

So Saylor's that much more in a poll position,

because ain't no one remotely close to his holdings.

Mara was number two, and they may still be,

but there's some competitors here.

Mara's chairman and chief executive order, Fred Thiel.

I wonder if there's any relation to Peter commented

in a release that the transaction enhanced

the company's financial flexibility

and increased the strategic optionality.

As Mara expands beyond the pureplay Bitcoin mining

into digital energy and the AI HPC infrastructure.

I don't know what the HPC stands for,

but it sounds like a fuckin' STD.

Mara's pre-market share price,

that reacted positive to the news.

Rising from yesterday's close of $8.25 to $9.29,

again, of 12%.

So maybe they know what they're doing,

but I'm always skeptical when they start offloading

their stash, you know what I mean?

The move follows a $1.7 billion net loss of the fourth quarter.

This may explain what's going on.

Driven largely by non-cash fair value adjustment

with Mara Bitcoin holdings.

Mara pushed back against speculation.

That was quietly selling down as Bitcoin holdings.

It leaves me to believe, they're in a precarious

financial situation with Bitcoin price

kind of being suppressed right now.

Miners are kind of at a loss, you know what I mean?

So maybe they're forced to do it.

I don't see why they would willfully do that.

If Bitcoin was thriving right now,

I got an all time high, I mean.

Mara's part of the broader shift

amongst crypto miners seeking more stable revenue streams,

exactly.

A redeploying energy and infrastructure towards AI.

So maybe they look at the AI being a better

higher and best use to be more profitable right now.

That's my understanding.

BitNear also sold down as Bitcoin Treasury to zero.

Fuck.

In February and Pivot's towards infrastructure services,

base revenues and cloud and AI.

So it's like a lot is moving into AI workloads right now.

You know, follow the money.

Next up, Fidelity's new Bitcoin study challenges

the traditional 6040 portfolio.

That's right.

Fidelity has used a new research report

and set out during Timber.

There we go.

He's the head of macro over at Fidelity.

And he was the first one to predict that I'm aware

of Bitcoin going to a billion dollars per coin.

He even put a timeline on it by 2038.

So Fidelity is the most bullish asset manager

to ever exist.

That's kind of cool.

I just want to throw that in there.

There are arguing Bitcoin's role in portfolios

can no longer be dismissed as a fringe question,

especially as the assumption behind the classic 6040 mix

come under pressure.

The report opens and you can actually download

that report here.

Well, usually unusually direct framing.

They say the central question is no longer

where the Bitcoin merits consideration.

Fidelity says instead it asks,

what's your current Bitcoin allocation and why?

For the firm's research team's ear exposure

may still be valid,

but it now requires a well-informed rationale.

You know, what do people say?

Peter Schiff told me so.

Jim Bo Kramer's, you know, Terence Howard says it's going to die.

I can see that in people's responses.

That argument rests first on Bitcoin's historical numbers.

Fidelity says Bitcoin has been a top performing asset

in 11 of the past 15 years.

And over multiple time horizons,

it's the most appreciated asset in human history.

That's a fact.

Has posted a highest return as well as the highest

risk-adjustive returns among the assets it examined.

The report acknowledges the familiar objection,

Bitcoin's volatility, which is absolutely an opportunity.

Remains the highest to the group,

but argues that the sharp and sortino ratios compare favorably.

While the bonds have looked particularly weak

on both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms you heard.

From there, the paper tries to move the discussion away

from philosophy into the portfolio construction.

Fidelity leans on Bitcoin's hard cap.

It's long, low-long-term correlation

to the major asset classes and the sensitivity

to the monetary expansion.

One of the reports stronger macro claims

is that it changes in global M2,

have explained 87% of the Bitcoin price changes

over the past 15 years, and in our squared basis,

for you algebra guys out there,

though Fidelity explicitly notes

the correlation does not by itself proves causation.

It also argues that the Bitcoin and Gold are similar enough

to share the inflation-hedge narrative,

but guess what's happening right now?

There's a great rotation.

That's right.

Gold just witnessed its biggest market crash

in over 50 frickin' years,

and where you think that money is flowing into the BTC.

But distinct enough to remain complimentary

rather than interchangeable in the diverse five portfolios.

The most consequential section for allocators

in the portfolio work using a traditional 6040 portfolio

of the US stocks and aggregate US bonds on a base case.

Fidelity says that in Bitcoin would have historically lifted

both annual and total returns, volatility rose and expected,

but the report says the increase was compensated

by the stronger risks-adjusted returns

with the biggest improvement

in the sharpened sortino ratios showing

when the allocations moved from one to three percent.

And just that small allocation change moves the needle

exponentially, which is mind-boggling.

And perhaps more notably for the conservative managers,

Fidelity says the maximum drawdowns

did not increase as dramatically as many would assume.

Partly because the low correlation

and partly because annual rebalancing

kept the Bitcoin sleeve from dominating the portfolio.

Fidelity's modeling does get more aggressive,

deeper in the paper, let's talk now.

In a mean variance optimization exercise

using what it calls conservative Bitcoin assumptions.

25% expected annual return and 50% volatility

against 14 and a half percent expected equity returns

and 2% for the bonds.

The maximum sharp portfolio included 9.4% Bitcoin

and no bonds at all.

If you're to ask me, 100% coal storage, fuck you bonds.

Like, who has any interest in bonds?

Well, Barry bonds maybe, because that's his name.

Other than that, and maybe the government.

But a separate Kelly, criterion exercise,

produces 5% position size,

using historical annual returns,

though Fidelity immediately warns

that there's not an investment recommendation.

They gotta say that, protect their tail.

Ask an inhibinator.

And notes that more conservative assumptions

bring that figure down to 10%.

The point is less that institutions should adopt

those weights than the Bitcoin asymmetric payoff.

But let's knock out our final story of the day, fam.

Bitcoin dips 3% as analysis says 70G's.

Bitcoin price, not obviously bearish.

Let's break her down.

Here, you're looking at a one-day chart.

We've got some green candles of formin' like George.

You know, volatility picked up as the US session began

with traders reacting to the latest developments

at the US-Iran War.

A reported lack of mutual understanding

over the peace proposal,

followed pressure from US President Trumpster

in the truth social posts,

Trump called Iranian negotiators

very different and strange.

They are better get serious soon

before it's too late, fuck, round, find out.

Because once that happens, there is no turning back,

and it won't be pretty,

which is suggesting it's gonna be ugly and violent.

That's Trump for ya.

US stocks turn red at the open,

while attention also focused on the longer term impact

of the conflict on inflation.

And as reported by the KBC letter and others,

the organization for the economical operation

of a development put US inflation at 4.2% in 2026.

Meanwhile, oil is up like fuckin' 30%, 40%.

I put $75 in my tank gas.

It went three quarters.

I used to be able to fill up the tank for $50 bucks.

You know, so I don't buy into any official inflation rates

never have, the suits are always lying.

You know, I'm sick.

Potential rate hikes to the US and EU

are now back on the table.

That's what's up.

Interesting.

And with Bitcoin still wedged in a narrow range,

trading company QCP stressed its resilience

within the overall macro landscape.

Yeah, I must say Bitcoin has been holding strong

even on the landscape of what's happening

with the war right now.

Bitcoin hovering at 70G's.

Price action still feels more like quiet consolidation

than outright stress.

Push!

The broader macro backdrop remains fragile.

With risk sentiment weighed by renewed Middle East

headlines, the oil still carrying a meaningful

geopolitical premium, even after pulling back

from the week's highs.

Yeah, QCP described Bitcoin's price activity

as not obviously bearish.

For now, Bitcoin's trading like an asset

being accumulated on the dips, but not yet chased.

The range is holding.

The surface is defensive but orderly

and Macro remains firmly in the driver's seat.

And checking out the latest overall market perspective

on CoinMark cap.

You can see total crypto market cap today

down close to 3% at 2.36 trillion,

which again, is mind-boggling.

Microsoft, for example, has like

$3 plus trillion market cap.

So all of crypto right now is smaller than

fucking Microsoft.

Again, mind-boggling.

Bitcoin specifically is 1.373 trillion total market cap.

Checking out the crypto degree

and for your index, we're back down

at a 10 in extreme fear.

And checking out the infamous time chain calendar.

Today's block height 942,344, and you could exchange

$1,000,000 for $1,400 and $54,000.

And don't forget to check out Bitcoin news alerts.net

for the full premium experience with video

and to participate in the live stream along with the Q&A.

And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode.

HODL.