284 – You Are Losing Deals You Never Even Saw (The 28 Moments)

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In this high-impact podcast episode to kick off 2026, Vince Menzione sits down with Jay McBain (Canalys/Informa) to decode the tectonic shifts reshaping the technology ecosystem. Jay reveals why the tech economy is forecasting double-digit growth while the broader economy lags, introducing a “Tale of Two Cities” where direct infrastructure sales are booming but partner influence is more critical than ever. He explains the drop in channel transact share to 66.7% and why the “96% Partner Assist” is the new metric for success. Jay also details the shift away from traditional “Gold/Silver/Bronze” programs toward point systems that recognize partners at every one of the “28 moments” in the customer journey, from influence to long-term retention.

Key Takeaways

• The tech industry is forecast to grow 10.2% in 2026, outpacing the global economy’s 2.7% growth.
• Channel transact share has dropped from 75% to a forecast of 66.7% as infrastructure deals go direct.
• Nvidia and the “Magnificent Seven” are driving a massive direct infrastructure build-out for the next era.
• Microsoft measures a 96% “Partner Assist” rate, with up to seven partners involved in every deal.
• 80% of customers now prioritize partner certifications and competencies over relationships when choosing partners.
• The number one request from partners is to be recognized for value across all 28 moments, not just the point of sale.

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Key Tags:

Jay McBain, Canalys, Informa Tech, Partner Assist, 28 Moments, Tech Growth 2026, Channel Strategy, Nvidia, Infrastructure Buildout, Partner Economics, Microsoft Ecosystem, AWS, Direct Sales, Indirect Sales, Partner Influence, Multiplier Effect, Customer Journey, Partner Programs, Tech Economy, Ecosystem Orchestration.

Transcript:

[00:00:00] Jay McBain: By the way, marketplaces, the massive growth in marketplaces for everyone that doesn’t own the marketplace is also an indirect sale. It should be helping these numbers. Yeah, so, but there’s one company that’s driving and happens to be the most valuable company in the world right now.

[00:00:15] Vince Menzione: Let’s start off with the first, my burning question I have first, let’s cover it first.

[00:00:21] Vince Menzione: If you had a sum up 2026 for partners in one sentence. What is it and what are people still underestimating?

[00:00:29] Jay McBain: Yeah, it’s one, one word is probably opportunity. Opportunity. Um, so we look around the world, uh, the world economy without technology in it is gonna grow at 2.7%. That’s about $120 trillion with technology in it, technology industry, we’re forecasting to grow by double digits.

[00:00:47] Jay McBain: Amazing. You know, in a world that’s growing at two, uh, we’re expecting 10.2%. Growth. And this industry, as you know, is surrounded by partners. Yes. And there are opportunities in hardware, in software, in services, in telco, all the different parts of the customer’s budget. And to look through the double digits though, I mean the, the extension of the sentence is, it’s a tale of two cities.

[00:01:11] Jay McBain: Yeah. I was gonna ask you about this. Police do. There isn’t an opportunity in every slice. You know, some of the slices are shrinking by single digits. Some of them are growing by low single digits, but some of them are in the 20, 30, 40% growth range. And this is what partners are starting to think, these tectonic shifts that are happening, the ultimate partnerships that are happening are in very specific places that you kicked off this session talking about.

[00:01:35] Vince Menzione: Yeah. So I would love to di dive in here because we have your, we have your slide up behind us. In fact, in talking about this $6.1 trillion economy around te uh, tech and telco and this opportunity. So, you know, we’re, there are gonna be winners and losers right in, in terms of these, uh, these segments or slices of the economy.

[00:01:55] Vince Menzione: We can talk about that now. I, I think maybe it would be a good idea to talk about both the channel and, and why the par the channel plays such a big role in this growth. And then talk about what the winners and losers are gonna be.

[00:02:07] Jay McBain: Yeah, I mean, broader. Um, actually if we go to the next, uh, slide, there is, um, a declining number and in the world economy that 120 trillion, 75% of it.

[00:02:20] Jay McBain: Uh, moves indirectly. You bought your last car from a dealer. Yeah. You bought your last, uh, TV from a retailer, you know, peanut butter from a grocer, that type of thing. But the agencies, the brokers, the resellers, the retailers, the franchisees, the gas stations, pharmacies, grocery, all the different parts of the 27 industries, you know, play an incredible role.

[00:02:40] Jay McBain: Our industry was at 75, not just three years ago. Wow. It dropped to 73.2. Two years ago, down to 70.1 last year, and this year’s forecast to be 66.7, so it’s dropping by about 3% each year and it’s this how money changes hands. Yeah. By the way, marketplaces, the massive growth in marketplaces for everyone that doesn’t own the marketplace is also an indirect sale.

[00:03:05] Jay McBain: It should be helping these numbers. Yeah, so, but there’s one company that’s driving and happens to be the most valuable company in the world right now, Nvidia. Yeah. And the broader data center buildup mostly on consumer side, but this infrastructure data center build out globally happening right now is mostly happening direct.

[00:03:22] Jay McBain: Yeah. There are the magnificent seven who are spending hundreds of billions of dollars each. On these chips and on this, uh, capability and capacity for this next 20 year era. And this is not a resell gain. They’re not buying through distribution and not buying through a reseller. And that’s where you talk about haves and have nots.

[00:03:40] Jay McBain: You talk about this economy that, you know, Nvidia for example, was growing at triple digits, quarter in, quarter out, you know, becoming the most valuable company. And it’s not. A traditional technology opportunity, right? There isn’t managed service providers inside these data centers. There isn’t technology folks like VARs and system integrators in plugging in the equipment.

[00:04:02] Jay McBain: Yeah. So we gotta watch and, and look at where this next shift takes us and where this multiplier opportunity wraps around it. So that’s the second number here. 96%. Which hasn’t changed. This is a number by the way, that Microsoft measures Yes. Understand. And, and Microsoft looks at it and, you know, second most valuable company in the world measures every deal they’re in and then have been for decades.

[00:04:26] Jay McBain: And they measure this 96% of partner assist upwards of seven partners in every one of their deals. And looking at this partner assist number is what drives them. And in Microsoft’s case. You know, perhaps without a better product price or uh, promotion than their lead competitor. AWS, they’ve outgrown them for 26 straight quarters.

[00:04:45] Jay McBain: Yes. And they point to place as the reason why that two, three, maybe even four of those seven partners may be leading with Microsoft in critical moments. And so every company, large, medium, and small, look at this partner assist number. And this is where we take that ecosystem conversation.

[00:05:02] Vince Menzione: So with 96% partner assist, why do partners touch, touching, everything still feel invisible in many cases.

[00:05:11] Vince Menzione: And what’s the one move that they, they make? Or need to make to make them undeniable to

[00:05:15] Jay McBain: vendors in 2026? Yeah, I mean, this is a long legacy. There’s 44 years of legacy of being measured at the point of sale where programs were built and paid at the point of sale. Yeah. Assuming you did a bunch of stuff like consulting and design and advisory before the point of sale, assuming you’re gonna stay after the sale and get the renewal and get the upsell, cross sell, and enrichment, there was this assumption, but you were really recognized only at one moment.

[00:05:41] Jay McBain: And when we did the survey last year across, you know, 20,000 partners around the world, the number one thing they’re asking vendors for now. Is to recognize, measure monitor me at every moment. Mm-hmm. 28 of them before the sale every 30 days. Forever after the sale. Yep. At the point of sale, the provisioning, the procurement, all the pieces of where we add value.

[00:06:02] Jay McBain: And now Microsoft was one of the leaders that came out with a point system over three years ago to say, we’re gonna start measuring and, you know, spreading the program dollars around a little bit like peanut butter. There’s over 400 companies now who have followed suit. You know, Cisco goes live in two weeks, so we’re in this mode now where the world is changing of economics, of partnering.

[00:06:23] Jay McBain: It’s changing how recognition happens and it’s the number one thing partners want.

[00:06:27] Vince Menzione: Yeah, we’re moving away from the gold, silver, bronze, uh, days of the past and, and tying ’em to these moments. In particular, the Ultimate Partner Winter retreat is gonna be here in the Boca Studio. This is the third year.

[00:06:41] Vince Menzione: That we’re gonna be here in Boca. This is always a favorite of our community members, our executive members, our sponsors and speakers. We’ll all be here in the studio, which is a really intimate setting. We can see it upwards of 40, 50 people. We’ll be hosting an incredible dinner at the Boca Resort overlooking the golf course.

[00:07:01] Vince Menzione: That’s an incredible property and uh, we’d love to have you join us. Thank you for being part of the ultimate Partner community, and I hope to see you this year at one of our events. Thank you.