第2884期: Falling price in oil

The business news at the moment is dominated by the falling price in oil. We're looking at some of the reasons behind this. So Richard, falling oil prices, what's it all about? Like any commodity, it's all about supply and demand.目前的商业新闻几乎都被油价下跌所主导。我们正在探讨这背后的一些原因。那么，理查德，油价下跌到底是怎么回事？和任何一种大宗商品一样，这归根结底还是供求关系的问题。

So presumably you're saying that demand is going down? Demand is going down because the world economy is slowing, especially China. So therefore there is less demand for oil, so the price goes down. So there's a decrease in demand.所以你的意思是需求在下降？是的，需求在下降，因为全球经济正在放缓，尤其是中国。因此，对石油的需求减少，价格自然就下跌了，也就是说需求出现了下降。

So what about supply then? Well, that's the double whammy. That's why the oil price has gone down so much, because there's been a surge in supply. From OPEC countries? No, from the US.那供给方面呢？这就是“双重打击”了。这也是油价大幅下跌的原因，因为供应量激增。是来自欧佩克国家吗？不，是来自美国。

The US has doubled its production of oil since 2010. How come they've done that? Well, it's all about fracking. Right.自 2010 年以来，美国的石油产量翻了一番。他们为什么能做到这一点？这主要得益于水力压裂技术。对。

They're producing oil from new deposits that they're finding in the US. So that's very successful for them. Successful for them.他们正在从美国本土新发现的油藏中开采石油，这对他们来说非常成功。确实是成功的。

But again, it leads to a lower oil price. So how much are we talking about then for a barrel of oil, Richard? Well, from a high of $110 a barrel in 2014, it's now less than $50 a barrel. OK.但这同样也导致了油价下跌。那么现在一桶油大概多少钱呢，理查德？2014 年的时候最高达到每桶 110 美元，而现在已经跌到每桶 50 美元以下了。好。

So obviously some of the OPEC countries are panicking about this? Yes, but it's affecting them very differently. Some are really suffering. For instance, Nigeria and Russia, they depend on oil.那么显然，一些欧佩克国家对此感到恐慌了？是的，但这对它们的影响各不相同。有些国家确实在承受巨大压力，比如尼日利亚和俄罗斯，它们高度依赖石油。

Right. To keep their economy afloat. They are really suffering.没错。为了维持经济运转。它们确实遭受了严重冲击。

What about Saudi Arabia? Well, they've got so much oil and they've got so much reserves of cash and oil that they're hoping to ride the storm out. And they, again, they're hoping that the low oil price will send the American frackers out of business. So it really is a supply and demand issue.那沙特阿拉伯呢？他们拥有大量石油资源，同时也积累了大量的现金和石油储备，希望能够挺过这场风暴。而且他们还希望低油价能把美国的页岩油生产商挤出市场。所以归根结底，这还是一个供需问题。

Yes, but there's also another factor on supply, on the supply side, because obviously the sanctions have been lifted against Iran. Which is an oil-producing country. They used to produce an awful lot of oil, and obviously now they're going to be producing more again.是的，但在供应端还有另一个因素，那就是对伊朗的制裁已经被解除。伊朗是一个产油国，过去曾生产大量石油，而现在显然又将重新增加产量。

Now that the sanctions have lifted. Exactly. So the outlook is for even lower prices.制裁解除之后。没错。所以前景是油价可能会进一步走低。

You say that, Richard, but when I take the car to the garage to be filled up with petrol, the prices are going down. Slowly. Slowly.你是这么说的，理查德，但我把车开去加油站加油时，油价确实在下降，只是很慢，很慢。

But why is it not going down at the same speed as the price of oil? Well, I think that's quite simple, really, because petrol companies, they're very, very reluctant to lower their prices, aren't they? And if their competitors aren't lowering their prices, they're not going to be lowering their prices. So prices are coming down. But as always happens, the prices go up quickly, but they come down slowly.但为什么油价没有像原油价格那样快速度下降呢？我觉得原因其实很简单，因为石油公司非常不情愿降价，对吧？如果竞争对手不降价，它们也不会降价。所以价格确实在下降，但一如既往，涨得快，跌得慢。

Are there any winners in this scenario? Theoretically, yes. Theoretically, Europe, for instance, which is a net importer of oil, they should like it because, obviously, cheaper oil, it should stimulate the economy. But they're keeping quite quiet about this.在这种情况下有没有赢家呢？理论上是有的。比如欧洲，作为石油净进口地区，按理说应该欢迎油价下跌，因为更便宜的石油有助于刺激经济。但他们对此却相当低调。

And obviously China as well. They're a big importer of oil. It should be better for them.当然还有中国，他们也是石油进口大国，油价下跌本应对他们更有利。

But they're suffering from their economy as well. So there doesn't seem to be any big winners at the moment. So this is something that's going to be affecting the business world for quite some time to come then?但他们的经济本身也面临压力。因此，目前看来并没有真正的赢家。那么，这是否意味着油价问题还将在相当长的一段时间内持续影响商业世界呢？