3/10/26: Trump Threatens 'Fury' On Iran, Israel Panics, Iran Rejects Ceasefire

This is an I Heart Podcast.

Guaranteed Human

Military life isn't predictable, but earning your master's degree can be.

With American military universities 40 plus flexible online master's programs,

you can stay mission ready while you get market ready.

Learn anywhere, anytime, with an education built to keep pace,

steady, reliable, and always accessible.

Plus military service members, veterans, and their families can save up to 45% on

master's tuition with AMU special rates and grants.

Learn more at amu.apus.edu.

Study through every mission.

Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas and

less sunshine and the cool Bahamian breeze.

Bahamar, located in NASA Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels.

Over 45 fine dining and nightlife venues,

John Batista's all new jazz club, the Caribbean's most luxurious casino,

and one of the kind experiences for the entire family.

Like our 15-acre tropical water park, wildlife sanctuary,

world-class golf course, and so much more.

Visit bahamlar.com today.

There's a difference between liking a house and actually getting it.

Redfin is built to make up that difference and close the gap between

finding and owning the home for you.

Redfin agents close twice as many deals as other agents.

So when you find a home you love,

you're not a step behind when it comes to making an offer.

That means less watching great homes disappear,

and more focus on the one you'll call home.

Redfin helps turn saved listings into real addresses.

Get started at redfin.com.

Own the dream.

Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

and we are so excited about what that means for the future of the show.

This is the only place where you can find honest perspectives from the left

and the right that simply does not exist anywhere else.

So if that is something that's important to you,

please go to breakingpoints.com,

become a member today,

and you'll get access to our full shows,

unedited, ad-free, and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

We need your help to build the future of independent news media,

and we hope to see you at breakingpoints.com.

Good morning, everybody.

Happy Tuesday.

Have an amazing show for everybody today.

What do we have for Sol?

If we do, Trump gave a very head scratching press conference yesterday.

We'll break that down for you.

Also, Israel is leaking that maybe they've had enough.

Maybe they'd like a ceasefire, at least for now.

Iran now is signaling they want to keep going,

at least until the midterm.

So we'll talk about everybody's strategy,

and where everybody is in this war at this point.

Brandon Wiker is also going to join us to break down the interceptor math

and the damage that has been done to U.S.

Raiders and the significance of that as the war grinds on.

Trump is urging oil tanker pilots to risk their lives

to traverse the straight-of-war moves

as oil concerns continue to escalate

and sort of dominate this conflict.

We also have one non-Aran block year,

although I would argue they continue to be linked.

Some new Epstein revelations,

including new details about a potential cover-up.

Apparently, guards were discussing a cover-up.

There were some interesting Google searches,

some interesting money transfers to one of these prison guards.

And also, those secret interviews of a Trump accuser

that were hidden have now been made public.

And one journalist was able to verify

some of the details,

corroborate some of the personal details

that were offered in one of those interviews.

These are obviously shocking revelations,

so we will break that down for you as well.

Yeah, that's right.

Thank you to everybody who has been subscribing

to the show breakingpoints.com.

This is the last week.

I think it's over on Friday for our free trials.

We can put that promo graphic on the screen.

You can use the code BP326 to sign up for a free month trial.

We would love to have you.

Costing nothing, you can cancel at any time.

Of course, you get access to all of our premium benefits

and support all of our work here.

If you cannot afford it, or I guess, you know,

if you don't want to, no worries.

Just hit subscribe to our YouTube channel, please.

And if you're listening to this as a podcast,

please share an episode with a friend.

The biggest week already in the history

of breakingpoints were really, really pleased

to have so many people join and trust us

at such a critical time like this.

As Crystal said, let's go ahead and start here

with the Trump press conference.

So Trump made a major announcement,

just to set the stage for everybody yesterday.

Oil prices had gone sky high.

They had come down a bit.

The markets were down right around 3 p.m.

Right before the markets closed.

Trump calls, or it was called by a CBS news reporter.

And he said that the war will be over very soon.

Immediately, the S&P 500 shot up.

Oil prices rocketed down.

Everybody was so excited.

The taco is coming.

And then he took to the stage.

And yeah, that's not really what we got at all.

Let's take a listen.

It was separate.

And but everybody said the same thing.

Make sure you win.

We will.

We've already won in many ways,

but we haven't won enough.

Yeah, please.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Mr. President, you've said the war is, quote,

very complete.

But your defense secretary says,

this is just the beginning.

So which is it?

And how long should Americans be doing?

Well, I think you could say it both.

The beginning.

It's the beginning of building a new country.

But they certainly, they have no navy.

They have no Air Force.

They have no anti-aircraft.

Equipment.

It's all been blown up.

They have no radar.

They have no telecommunications.

And they have no leadership.

It's all gone.

So, you know, you could look at that statement.

We could, we could call it a tremendous success right now,

as we leave here.

I could call it, or we could go further.

And we're going to go further.

But, but, you know, they said this about a lot of things.

Go with the president.

You could do some of this shit I'm doing.

Yeah.

That's not a common truth.

Yeah, certainly true.

Definitely not.

A compliment.

Let's go ahead and put A to B.

Please, Eric, up on the screen just to show people.

Again, how, you know, any idea of some sort of taco,

Trump always chickens out as originally coined by Senator Chuck Schumer.

Now become a Wall Street Journal and or traitor term.

It has completely been dispelt.

So late last night, Trump issues this misive.

If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil

within the straight of our moves,

they will be hit by the United States of America 20 times harder

than they have been hit thus far.

Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets

that will make it virtually impossible

for Iran to ever be built back as a nation again.

Death, fire, and fury will reign upon them.

But I hope and pray it does not happen.

This is a gift from the United States of America to China

and all those nations that heavily use the hormones straight.

Hopefully, it is a gesture we greatly appreciate it.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

So, fire and fury watchers, it's back.

Fire and fury, of course, originally coined in 2017

in that exchange between Trump and what did he call Kim Jong-un?

Rocket man?

With a rocket man?

Oh, wow, nine years.

I sense all that happened.

It feels like yesterday.

But just to give people context,

this is all indicative of a panicking administration

over these rising energy prices.

So, while oil, as of this morning,

it's trading around $90 a barrel.

It was all the way up to like 120.

Yesterday, extremely volatile.

Everybody, of course, hanging on every word of the president.

But regardless, it's still up some 30, 40 percent

from when the war began just some last week.

They are trying to find some sort of off-ramp.

Let's go ahead and put A1B up here on the screen.

This is a Wall Street Journal story breaking late last night.

What it says, as you guys can see in front of you,

is that some of Trump's advisors in recent days

have encouraged him to articulate a plan

to extract the U.S. from the war with Iran.

Make the case that the military had largely achieved its objectives.

While many in the president's conservative base

still support the operation,

some of his advisors have privately expressed concerns

that a longer war could deplete that support.

So, they're talking about political backlash.

Which, again, I actually think at this point

is the least of their problems.

Because just this morning,

we hear from the United Arab Emirates

that one of the largest refineries in the entire country,

in the entire Middle East is now on fire.

And they're like, hey, everybody,

please stop circulating rumor.

But, yes, we are trying to contain a fire.

I love the vague nature, which they released it,

like when Saudi Arabia said,

incoming missiles into Dharan, please don't panic.

And I was like, Dharan is where Saudi Aramco is.

So, maybe we should panic, same here with the UAE.

We know multiple targets were struck overnight

all across both Iran, which we're going to show you in a little bit.

And this morning, we're already waking up to the news

that's more significant oil infrastructure has been hit.

So, the war continues to widen.

I think what the advisors are pointing to

is that they can see gas prices, look, maybe not 120.

Even 90, I mean, it's high, it's very high.

And the only reason I think that it's currently trading

around 90 right now is that,

and we'll get to this in a little bit,

is that the G7 nations have decided that basically

that they will, they're open to releasing probably,

30% of what's already been lost

of the entire strategic petroleum reserve

from all across the world,

out into the open market to try and lay those fears.

Same, the S&P 500, as far as I know, how so far.

It's down a little bit, just a little bit,

but not all the way back to where it was.

But the point is, is that they saw this indication

as Trump is open to some sort of offering,

but traders have no idea.

So, you could see extreme volatility happen.

I mean, if you ask me, fire and fury,

that's a sell signal, that's just me.

Well, what it's, I mean, Trump's actions yesterday

were obviously just a good old fashion market manipulation.

He saw things going south in terms of the stock market.

He saw things going north in terms of the oil prices.

It's like, I got to do something about this

because I got to buy myself some time here

as much time as I can.

So, he calls up this reporter, says,

oh, we're pretty much done.

Schedules of press conference for after the market's closed

to be like, well, you can say that we're done,

but also we're just beginning.

It's kind of both at the same time, somehow.

My read of the situation is he actually would like to taco

and listen to the AIDS and find some sort of way out of this,

but he's trapped, because if he now,

like, declares mission accomplished and tries to walk away,

the Iranians have been very consistent in saying,

we're not done, oh, no, you don't get to say

when this is over, because we know,

we learned our lesson from the 12-day war.

We're not doing a ceasefire with you now

until you have felt the pain.

We're gonna talk more about some of the specifics

of what the Iranians are saying, you know,

when we get to that portion.

But so he knows, if he tries to walk away,

there is a very, very strong likelihood,

but his intelligence reports are probably telling him this too,

that the Iranians continue to strike.

And so then you just look incredibly weak.

So, I think his AIDS are, it's incredible

that they're already leaking to the press,

like, yeah, this is not going well.

We wanna find a way out of this thing.

I think that also is probably a signal to the markets,

that they're trying to put out there

of like, oh, we're trying to get out of this, guys.

But this is what we have been talking about.

This is the prediction we've been making

from the beginning of this,

that once you get into this escalatory cycle,

it's not so easy as just putting up

the mission accomplished banner and saying,

we're gonna walk away.

So that's my read of what is going on here.

And, you know, I think also,

obviously they're putting out all kinds of bluster.

You hear Trump there.

Oh my God, they have no more Navy,

they have no more Air Force,

they have no more leaders, et cetera, et cetera.

They're basically defeated.

You know, we've effectively declared victory here,

even though we're gonna keep going.

But this leak from his age shows that behind the scenes,

the picture is far less rosy.

And there are great concerns,

both in terms of the economic fallout,

the military damage, and the political fallout.

Let me give you headlines from just the last 35 minutes.

Al Jazeera correspondent,

explosion following sirens in Northern Tel Aviv.

Al Upgar correspondent,

Lebanese army soldier killed in the conflict with Israel.

Abu Dhabi authorities, fire broke out

in the ROE's industrial complex.

And then another Lebanese army soldier

was killed and explosions in Doha Qatar,

and as well as the UAE.

So there you go.

I mean, this is all just in the last 30, 45 minutes

before we even done the show.

A top Iranian security official tells Trump,

be careful not to get eliminated yourself.

So this is the kind of rhetoric that, you know,

it's coming from the Iranians,

is that sound like people want to back down.

Their leader now is the dude who's mom, dad, wife, and son,

you just murdered.

So you think they're-

We miss a few relatives in there too.

Yeah, there's other children relatives to whatever.

They, yeah, all mass murdered.

You think he's in a conciliatory mood?

You think he's ready to shake hands and say, okay,

well, let's go back to the negotiating table.

I don't think so.

And by the way, you know, with this sort of rhetoric,

which is extreme, can you really complain

when you just assassinated their head of state

and are openly threading the new one?

I mean, Trump got asked about it.

I don't think we pulled the clip.

But Trump got asked, hey, you know,

are you thinking of killing the news supreme leader?

He's like, yeah, maybe he doesn't comply.

Yeah, we may do that.

Yeah, he kept that open.

And you can already see how that is working.

Now, again, we just want to stick to show you

the American press.

Part of the reason we're so happy

by the people who watch this show.

So I'm watching this press conference yesterday.

My wife's mad at me because I'm not being able to help out

with the baby.

It's late at night, AKA like 6 p.m.

And I'm like, okay, let's get some good questions in here.

And this is the shit that I hear.

You see here some reporter out there who goes,

wait, but if you do taco,

then aren't you letting down the Iranian people?

Let's take a listen.

You promise the Iranian people you would help them,

but it sounds like you're willing to end this fight

after your military objectives have wrapped up.

Is that, isn't that in betrayal at all?

Will I help them?

I'd like to if they can behave,

but they've been very menacing.

You know, they're great people.

They have an amazing population.

It's amazing, smart, brilliant, energetic.

They have a great, I'd love to help them,

but they have to be in a system

that allows them to be helped.

Yeah, so the only adversarial, the journalism

that we occasionally get is a reporter being like,

but if you end it, wouldn't that stop helping the Iranian people?

You wanna see how we're helping out the Iranian people?

Let's go to A3.

Let's show some of this stuff from last night.

By the way, the president in the middle of his speech

is talking about how, oh, if Iran doesn't capitulate,

we're gonna go after their energy grid.

Meanwhile, in a video that you all just saw,

that was a strike in the middle of Tehran,

where you see that massive flash,

which analysts are indicating is a power transformer,

which caused a massive blackout across the entire sea.

I mean, look at this, it's out of a movie.

It's like, it's literally out of a movie in 4K video,

where all of us just get to see

what is happening with some of these explosions.

So that's apparently how we're helping the Iranian people,

the great people of Iran who are just going to rally

around the American flag and greet us in these rallies

as liberators.

Meanwhile, by the way, as all indications go forward,

A5, put this up here on the screen,

more confirmation of everything that we warned you about yesterday,

capturing Iran's highly enriched uranium

would require a large US ground force source to say.

So the president continues to weigh that special operation,

which would go in and capture all of this nuclear material.

And it would make sense, right, Kressel?

Because that's an easy mission accomplished.

Well, what did we tell you all yesterday?

You can't just send in small team of Delta Force.

They know you're coming.

That's why the 82nd airborne

has currently been put on notice and is awaiting orders.

And they can deploy anywhere in the world in like 72 hours.

This is the exact reason,

is that to be able to do so,

it would require, yes, the Delta guys are going in it,

but somebody's got to protect them.

So you're going to need all these air assets,

you need large ground force around the area,

the Iranians know that you're coming,

and they're turning it into a complete death trap.

If there have any IQ left in their leadership,

but in their military.

So that's why it would require more.

And then who knows how many people

are going to get killed in that type of mission.

And it would be some sort of, I think,

that would be their way of saying mission accomplished,

is that they would knock it over.

But it would have to end on the same note,

if this is the way that it's going to go down,

the way that Afghanistan did.

And look, you know, you and I were supportive of the decision

to get out of Afghanistan,

but you can't deny it was an abject disaster, right?

And that yet 13 Marines were blown up

by some ISIS bomber who were right there at the end.

And it sunk a decent part of Trump's presidency.

It looked like, sorry, Biden's presidency.

It looked like a quagmire and a disaster.

And that's pretty much how this is looking right now

for the plan to have all of these forces on the ground.

Well, and not only would it require all of these forces,

I mean, to say it would be risky is really to undersell it.

One of the analysts that they interviewed here

said the logistics and risk involved would be prohibitive,

meaning that this isn't just risky,

this is practically a death wish.

You're talking about an operation

that would require air cover,

require security, require these guys on the ground.

And then you have to find where this material even is.

They have some idea.

The thought is that it's still buried, you know, it is Fahan

and that you'd have to be able to access it

through these tunnels.

I mean, that's why I think they haven't gone forward

with this yet because it's just such

an insanely risky, difficult mission.

You're begging for scores of U.S. service members

to either be captured or killed.

So, you know, the quote unquote easy mission accomplished

moment is not going to be easy whatsoever

and could only further deepen and entrudge this conflict,

not to mention kill a bunch of Americans.

So, that is the landscape that they're ultimately looking at here.

You know, there's another development.

I'm curious what you think of the saga.

This is, you know, a little hard to parse.

This comes from Barack Revead.

We could put this up on the screen.

Trump apparently spoke with Putin.

This is A6 claiming that they discussed an end

to the Iran war in a phone call.

The Kremlin says that the Russian president

presented a proposal.

You know, it was the Russians who originally,

you know, leaked the fact that this phone call happened

and then clearly the White House gave some details

to Barack Revead, but this comes in its reports

that Russia has been helping Iran quite a bit

with intelligence, which is crucial.

I mean, we've been doing the same thing with Ukraine

in terms of, yeah, for years and, you know,

certainly in the context of the, you know,

after Russia invaded Ukraine.

And that has been incredibly important

for the Ukrainians and their ability to sustain,

you know, the lines, the battle lines

that they've been able to sustain,

their ability to target, including targeting within Russia.

That has all been enabled by us.

And Russia reportedly is doing the same for Iran,

which is why, you know, there have been a bunch of reports

including from our friends at Dropsite

that the US was shocked by some of the targeting,

including the ability to know where service members were,

which hotel rooms are service members were staying in

and other personnel were staying in.

So, you know, that's the back story here.

So to have this conversation happening right now

is, you know, it's an interesting development.

Well, there was another piece of the press conference

where Trump did not get specific, but he said,

we'll be removing sanctions from some countries for oil.

It's obviously right.

You know, it's right after a call with Putin.

Now, listen, I'm not for the oil sanctions,

so I don't care.

But if you're one of those neocons

who's been beaten their chest for Ukraine,

you want to cut off Russian oil,

how much have you been idiot do you look like now?

Well, maybe I already got their wavered Russia.

Did you got their waver from Russian oil?

Which is insane that they need such a thing.

Right.

I couldn't agree more as I said, but all right,

so let's put that to this side.

So now, Trump and Putin are in a long phone call

and Putin, I mean, what?

You think he's not going to sweet?

He's like, hey, you want to bring the price of oil down?

I'll help you.

Just take some of these sanctions off.

No worries, it's all good.

We can even move towards a peace settlement in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Kremlin war coffers are going up like this.

If you follow, there's one of his advisors,

Putin's advisors.

You don't Twitter.

You got to really go and follow them.

His name is Kirill, something.

I forget.

He's very open about it.

He's like, thank you, United States $100 per barrel.

This is the best thing that's ever happened to us

over at the Kremlin.

We can use this to our advantage.

You've just taken out a significant chunk

of the global supply.

He's like, oh, we're going to use all this money

to kill the Ukrainian Nazis.

That's how they talk, right?

So they're open.

You just massively empowered the Russians.

Military life isn't predictable,

but earning your master's degree can be

with American military universities 40-plus

flexible online master's programs.

You can stay mission ready while you get market ready.

Learn anywhere, anytime, with an education built to keep pace,

steady, reliable, and always accessible.

Plus military service members, veterans, and their families

can save up to 45% on master's tuition

with AMU's special rates and grants.

Learn more at amu.apus.edu.

Steady through every mission.

Discover a spectacular island destination

with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine,

and the cool Bahamian breeze.

Bahamar, located in Nassau Bahamas,

offers your choice of three luxury hotels,

the richly refined rosewood, the playfully hip SLS,

and a stylishly modern grand riot.

With over 45 restaurants, bars, and lounges,

Bahamar serves up delicious dining

from world-renowned shops, like Daniel Barude

and Marcus Amulsen.

Nightlife venues like the new Jamba T's Jazz Club

and the Caribbean's most luxurious casino.

At Bahamar, you'll find every pleasure under the sun

and one of the kind experiences for the entire family,

like Baha Bay, our 15-acre lush tropical water park,

interactive wildlife experiences,

including our daily flamingo parade,

world-class golf, tennis, spa, and so much more.

Visit bahaamar.com today and discover

a vacation destination where memories are made

for a lifetime.

Bahamar, life spectacular.

John, I'm putting my foot down.

We can't put off renovating this house any longer.

Our kitchen is so small, we need to finish the basement

for the kids and don't even get me started on the bathrooms.

Honey, renovating is so expensive.

We can't do all those projects.

With Renify, we can.

What's Renify?

Renify loans are a new type of home equity loan

only for homeowners during renovations.

We can get up to $750,000 and keep our existing

low mortgage rate locked in.

With Renify, we can do everything on our renovation list

and we don't have to refinance.

That's right.

Renify loans are the only home equity loan

that use the after renovation value.

Just what we need.

How do we get started with Renify?

I've already started.

See, I'm at Renify.com.

Visit Renify.com.

That's r-e-n-o-f-i.com to receive a text message

to see if you qualify for up to $750,000

to renovate your home with Renify.

Unlock the future value of your home right now

to get the money you need without refinancing.

Visit Renify.com or r-e-n-o-f-i.com to get started today.

NMLS, number 1802847, terms apply.

NMLS was a property qualify, equal opportunity broker.

Another huge piece of news about South Korea,

I'll save that for our talk with Brandon.

It's literally breaking right now.

It's absolutely shocking.

But the last thing I didn't want, of course,

to note is about this strike on the Girl School,

the elementary school, where Trump, again,

I could not believe that this was actually happening,

where a reporter, I think it was Manu Raju

over at CNN, he's a pretty good reporter,

and he's like, hey, so what happened

with this Tomahawk missile, a video,

and it shows hitting a girl school?

And Trump goes, well, a lot of people have Tomahawk missiles,

including Iran.

I'm not joking, that's what he said.

Let's take a listen.

What is that show that American missile strike

in a Tomahawk missile likely destroyed

that Iranian Girl School?

So will the Americans, will the US

accept any responsibility?

Well, I haven't seen it.

And I will say that the Tomahawk,

which is one of the most powerful weapons around,

is used by, you know, sold and used by other countries,

you know that.

And whether it's Iran, who also has some Tomahawk say,

wish they had more.

But whether it's Iran or somebody else,

the fact that a Tomahawk, a Tomahawk

is very generic, it's sold to other countries.

But that's being investigated right now.

Super generic missiles,

only the United States, Britain, and Australia have.

Even Israel does not have these things.

Right.

So, I mean, it's like, I mean, I'm laughing,

but I'm not laughing.

Like, that's an insane thing to say.

And actually, reporter confronted him later on.

It was great.

Sean McCree shout out over the New York Times,

been a fan of his for a long time.

And he was like, why are you the only person

in your government saying that Iran has a Tomahawk missiles?

Like, not even your own Secretary of Defense says that.

And he goes, well, we're investigating it,

and I'll live with whatever the report was.

So even he walked it back in the immediate term.

McCree was like, you're saying that Iran somehow

got a Tomahawk missile and bombed their own school.

No one else is saying that.

Why are you the only person that's saying that?

And then Trump backpedals to like, well,

there's an investigation.

I mean, just unbelievable bullshit

that even Pete Exeth has enough shame

that he won't go along with.

So they default to like, oh, it's an investigation.

And this has been, like, it should be.

And it is a massive scandal.

It should be an even bigger scandal.

But I've seen even, you know, Laura Ingram

is like, there needs to be answers to this.

Like, how did this happen?

Because the other piece is, you know, best case scenario,

it's just a horrific mistake.

But then you're like, why was it a double tap strike then?

How did that happen?

And then the other question obviously is,

was this an AI-generated target?

You know, was that why this occurred?

Because there was another instance

where they bombed something called police park.

Now, this may have been the Israelis

because it's been largely the Israelis

who have been bombing the police stations,

just trying to completely break down

any sort of civil order

and create the, you know, foment the conditions

for this, you know, imaginary uprising.

Same thing that they did in Gaza, by the way,

when they were trying to get the people to rise up against them

as obviously that never happened either.

But in any case, in the context of bombing

all these police stations, they bombed something

called police park, which is literally just a park.

So, would seem to indicate potentially, you know,

AI was just generating like, anything that says police,

let's just bomb that.

There was no intensive human review

to find out you're literally bombing like

a playground in a soccer field or something like that.

And so they go forward with that.

Like, how did this happen?

Because bombing in an elementary school

where you have 168 girls who are now murdered

and more than a dozen of their teachers

who are now murdered on the very first day

of the world of the war is a moral atrocity.

And it also, you know, we're gonna show you

some of the hardening of nationalist sentiment

within the country.

Like, when you see your little children being murdered

at the hands of this, you know, enemy government

that attacked you on the legally attacked you

on the blue and killed your leader, et cetera.

You know, how do you think that's gonna make people feel?

It's gonna make them much more committed

to want to fight and die for the cause of their country.

So, you know, just disgusting for Trump to lie.

And it's so, honestly, it's so disrespectful

to the people of the world and the people of this country.

I think we're just gonna buy this bullshit.

You know, I'm sure his cult members will,

but the rest of the country is gonna look at this

and be like, that is utter and complete garbage.

You should be horrified by it.

I also think that it's a massive disservice to the military.

It's one of those where we had a culture originally.

And again, you can say a lot of bad things

about Iraq and Afghanistan.

But generally, there was a culture

and I covered many of these when you did something like this.

You were gonna pay.

It was a scandal that was gonna be a real investigation.

There were likely to be some kind of consequences.

And the thing is, is that, and think about this too.

Now, you've got the person who probably fired the Tom Hock.

They've got to live with this forever.

The only way that they should be able to live with it

is to know that there's accountability

up the chain of command.

Because again, the individual sailors

or any of the people who fired these,

they don't know, give it just programming things,

you know, from the Pentagon.

Who in the Pentagon created the strike package?

What was the process where the strike package happened?

Remember my lie?

I mean, we did a whole after action thing

on the my lie massacre or any of the atrocities.

The Kunduz hospital, I read the whole report.

You can, you can Google it.

You can go and read it for yourself.

If you wanna know the step-by-step process,

it used to be one where we take this stuff very seriously.

Now, I was, oh, it was Iran.

I mean, again, the way that you know that it wasn't,

because I even saw some cope, not even cope,

but somebody said, you know, one alternative,

which is even more horrifying,

is that whenever we struck Iran previously,

that they were able to acquire a Doug Tom Hock missile.

And I was like, I'm pretty sure that that didn't happen.

There would, and but if it did,

that would be as much of the scandal,

you know, at the same time, but beyond like all of this.

Yeah, it's so far-fetched, right?

Pretty far-fetched, because it has to be fired and created.

You know, it's like, it's not so simple.

It's just like getting a Tom Hock missile.

But the whole point around for our military culture

is one where you don't wanna encourage cover-up or make it

so that you don't acknowledge these types of incidents,

because we know from our long history

that that would only encourage

and institutionalize a bad process.

And that's not what we want.

It's counter to our strategic games,

our tactical games, obviously.

And also, 168 people, or 168 little girls are literally dead.

It's insane.

Not to mention what, seven US soldiers,

I just saw the news.

You know, one of those guys who they're claiming,

one of those guys who you were claiming

had a hell, died of that.

Hell medical incident.

These NYPD cop, father of six children,

you know, coming back in a coffin,

like it's the worst possible thing

for all of these people who are involved.

Last, yes or no?

I was just gonna say to your point about, you know,

look, obviously I have long-term critiques

of the US military and, you know,

the lack of care for civilians and all of that.

But yeah, I mean, the first, like, big video

that WikiLeaks published was the collateral murder video

which showed Apache helicopter targeting, you know,

journalists and civilians.

And that was a massive scandal, you know?

And so, you know, I think partly, too,

what has happened here is with all of us

watching the Gaza genocide happen on our timelines,

they do think that they can just get away with anything.

And now you see the US directly copying

these really tactics of, okay, if we do,

if we spark a little public outrage,

we'll just say, you know, oh, we don't know,

maybe it was them, maybe first we'll try,

oh, maybe it was actually the Iranians

who, you know, bombed their own elementary school,

see if people will buy that.

And if they won't, then you say,

oh, they'll be an investigation.

And then you just, you know,

let the new cycle move on.

And that's where we are.

Yeah, last thing we want to show you was this report

from inside of Iran, Dr. Mohammed,

and Iran, now again, he's joined John Kirakau.

We always give the caveat, he's very pro regime.

He has sources though.

So we try to show you all sides of the conflict.

He says that Iran wants to wait until the midterms

are over in order to keep this war going as long as possible.

Let's take a listen.

I've been informed today by a significant political figure

that Iran plans to continue this war until the midterms

in the United States.

And they will, they are planning to make the United,

force the United States to leave.

And the more this war escalates,

the darker it becomes for US allies across the region.

For the Arab family dictatorships and the Persian Gulf,

this, if it continues for much longer, they won't survive.

Remember, these are all dictatorships, family dictatorships.

And the passport holders in these small entities

are sometimes 10, 15% of the whole population.

So in the Emirates, you have 1.4 million people

who are Emirati is the rest, 10 million or so, I guess.

They are there.

But if the state collapses those slaves

and in an indentured servants and the underclass,

they may have something to say about the future of the Emirates

or Qatar or Kuwait.

So you can see there the strategic calculus

from inside.

And here's the thing, you don't even really need to trust him.

I think you just need to look at their public statements.

We're not going to surrender.

They're going after President Trump

in retaliation for some sort of fire and fury.

I also think everyone should really pay attention

to all of our interviews with Dr. Treetoparasi

because he was dead on before the war

and he's been dead on since, and he's like, look,

if they end the war right now, they're going to be very weak.

And they believe, in their hearts,

that the 12-day war ending was a disaster,

because it gave these railings in the US time

to rearm before they hit them again.

How could they possibly have any assurance

that they won't get hit again after we bombed them twice,

twice, that we've launched wars with them,

after an under the cover of diplomacy.

You would never trust that ever again.

The only way to make any sort of trust

is to inflict maximum damage for as long as possible,

try and destroy the global economy.

Like that's their one chance at being able to survive.

You've got the new Ayatollah

who's, I mean, I can't even give you the list

of how many relatives this guy is dead.

I read a profile of him yesterday.

We really don't know much about him.

We only heard his voice once, apparently, in public in 2024.

But the only propaganda video of him

released his cleaning his gun

during the around the rock war.

Not great.

Also, somebody who had apparently long fostered relations

with the IRGC and tried to put down

or bolster some of the hardline factions

to a protest in 09.

So you've got the ideological component,

the fact that his father has been killed,

his wife, his daughter, or sorry, son,

one of his children who was killed in this strike

and you're like, oh, man, we're dealing with somebody.

If anything, this is a guy who's going to repeal

a fought one on nuclear weapons.

You could understand from a psychological,

personal perspective and an ideological.

You fuse those two things together.

What would you do?

And a tactical perspective,

for this is from their own strategic perspective,

they should have pursued a nuke.

That would have been a deterrent.

I mean, so there have been many hardliners

who have pushed in that direction,

but it has not happened, I think, predominantly

because of the fatwa that was issued

by the now dead Ayatollah.

And so, yeah, you could easily see,

I didn't think of the insanity of that,

think of the insanity of that.

So one of the many stated goals of this whole war

is to prevent them from getting,

from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

And there is a very strong possibility

you've just made it more likely

that they will pursue a nuclear weapon, not less.

Last thing to your point about,

Tree to Parsley, I just wanted to read his analysis,

he posted, about the Trump press conference,

which was, as we said, all over the place,

he said Trump's all over the place press

or appears to have had two key objectives.

A, calm the markets by signaling the conflict

may student be over because it had been so,

quote unquote, successful.

And B, prepare the ground for Trump

ending the war through a unilateral declaration of victory,

though ending a war that never should have started

in the first place rather than fighting it endlessly

in the pursuit of an illusory victory

as the US did in Afghanistan is the right move.

It will not be as easy as Trump appears to think.

Tehran also has a vote, and there is little to suggest

that it will agree that the war is over

and then he goes on to talk more

about the Iranian perspective.

But that is really the bottom line here.

Even if Trump wants to taco,

and there are some indications here

that he and his advisors are trying to look

for a way to taco, which would be great,

even if he does that, he may be already in a trap.

The Iranians do not seem to be in any mood to back down.

So that is the lay of the land.

As of today, it is, you know,

looks like we are in an escalation trap.

Looks like this thing is only expanding,

only going to get more deadly,

only going to grind on further into, you know,

what may end up being sort of war of attrition,

where, you know, that's why we're going to talk

to Brandon Wiker later on, you know,

what last longer are interceptors or their drones,

which they're able, by the way, to continuously manufacture.

Which one is willing to bear more pain?

The Iranians, for whom this is literally existential

in terms of both their lives and their country,

or the Americans who do not even want this war

and are not interested in paying any sort of price for it.

You know, I think most Americans probably sort of like

the idea of, oh, the Iranians are bad.

Let's throw their regime.

But they do not support this,

and they're not willing to bear much of any cost

in order to accomplish the ever-shifting goals

articulated by the Trump regime.

Yeah, that's right.

Military life isn't predictable,

but earning your master's degree can be.

With American Military University's

40-plus flexible online master's programs,

you can stay mission-ready while you get market-ready.

Learn anywhere, anytime, with an education built to keep pace,

steady, reliable, and always accessible.

Plus, military service members, veterans,

and their families can save up to 45% on master's tuition,

with AMU's special rates and grants.

Learn more at AMU.APUS.edu.

Steady through every mission.

Discover a spectacular island destination

with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine,

and the cool Bahamian breeze, Bahamar.

Located in NASA, Bahamas offers your choice

of three luxury hotels, over 45 fine dining

and nightlife venues, John Batista's All New Jazz Club,

the Caribbean's most luxurious casino,

and one of the kind experiences for the entire family,

like our 15-acre tropical water park,

wildlife sanctuary, world-class golf course,

and so much more.

Visit Bahamar.com today.

John, we can't put off renovating anymore.

The kitchen's tiny, the basement's unfinished.

Renovating is expensive.

Not with Renify.

What's Renify?

Renify loans are a new type of home equity loan

just for renovations.

No refinancing required.

We can get up to $750,000 while keeping our low mortgage rate.

How do we get started?

I've already started.

Visit renofy.com to receive a text to see if you qualify

for up to $750,000 to renovate your home with Renify.

That's re-en-o-fi.com.

NMLS number 1802847, terms apply.

Not all bars are property qualify, equal opportunity broker.

Let's move on to Israel.

Yeah, so we've got sort of a parallel story

here going on from the Israelis, where we just

talked about how some of Trump's aides

are leaking to the press.

We're trying to figure out how to get out of this thing.

Well, the Israelis are apparently leaking

to David Ignatius, who's known to be very tied in

with the deep state over at the Washington Post,

that they are also concerned.

So this is worth taking note of with interest.

Put this up on the screen.

So the headline is, is really officials

are growing concerned.

A bombing campaign, nearing its military goals in Iran,

leaves the hardest questions unanswered.

A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern

about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran

and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war

before it further damages the region and the global economy.

Talk of an endgame is early and a decision

about whether to stop the attacks

rest largely with President Donald Trump,

that's not what he said, by the way, in any case,

who continues to seek all-out victory.

But in a telephone conversation Sunday,

a senior Israeli official familiar with the planning

and strategy for the Iran War discussed alternatives

to Trump's call for unconditional surrender,

the official requested anonymity.

So that is kind of the line coming out

from these Israeli officials is, look,

our bases are taking direct hits.

We're gonna talk later about the radars

that have been damaged.

Our Gulf allies are really unhappy in a variety of ways.

We'll talk about that as well.

But the Israelis are taking active fire in their country

and we really don't have a clear view

of just how much damage has been done,

but they have to be looking at the same interceptor math

that we've been talking about in the context of this war

that we talked about in the context of the 12-day war

and going, I'm not sure how much we are able

or willing to sustain.

So they may be, it reportedly,

after the 12-day war, it was really the Israelis

who were the ones who said, let's call this quits for now.

Let's come to some sort of a ceasefire,

let's end these hostilities for now

over precisely some of these same concerns.

And I think, Sagar, they would probably be happy

adopting effectively like a Mo the Lawn strategy,

like what they've done in Gaza for years and years,

where you go in, destabilize, blow a bunch of shit up,

make it impossible for the country of Iran

to grow and thrive and succeed, create a bunch of chaos.

And then once the price gets too much to bear for you

or public sentiment starts to turn global sentiment,

I should be clear, the Israeli public

is very much on board with this war.

But once global sentiment starts to, okay,

then we'll stop for now

and then we'll go back in at a future time.

That seems to be what they're aiming for,

but of course, this is subject to the same problem

that the Trumpian logic of Trump wants to taco

is subject to as well, which is that there is another party

to this and the Iranians seem to have learned a lesson

from the 12-day war.

They seem to regret having agreed to that ceasefire then

which just allowed the Israelis and the Americans

to rebuild and re-equip so that they could come back in

with an even more aggressive illegal war.

Yeah, and what I see in terms of the Israeli strategy

is more of an acknowledgement of the widening

of the conflict where I really do,

it does seem to me that the Israelis in the US

actually believed a lot of their own BS

that they wouldn't strike elements of the Gulf.

They just thought that this is a nightmare scenario,

same with the closure of the Straits of Hormuz.

It was one of those like tail end risks,

but not something that was really

from what they were thinking would happen.

I mean, Ignatius even writes that the bombing campaign

was nearing the point of achieving its military objectives,

but what they find is that, of course,

we wish to topple the regime,

but that's not the only endgame, this is the Israeli.

Once the major military targets have been eliminated,

Israel would have achieved its goals.

Iran won't surrender, but it can send messages

to accept a ceasefire within US conditions.

But what that ignores is how the Iranians

are going to respond, number one,

and they've already gone for the MAC strategy.

But two, I think what they're also saying

from the Israeli perspective is they're like,

oh, man, now we're tied at the hip here

with the United States with Trump.

We're tied at the hip obviously with them.

They wanted to clear this some sort of regime change,

but they're also learning as we continue to see

their strikes all over Israel.

I mean, look, the war has already widened.

Israeli soldiers have even been killed.

Now with Hasbullah, they're having to expand into Lebanon,

and what they like, as you said,

is having the boogeyman exist.

But if they actually go forward,

then what are they going to do?

They can't rile up their whole population

every few years and say, oh, we have to go bomb them

because of their nuclear threat.

If they actually did replace the regime,

then they would have to, first of all,

we'd have to live with their consequences

and people could see how much of a nightmare

that it's all become.

I think more than anything,

this is probably more about munitions math,

and it's about defense readiness,

and the reality of a long war

and what it's all going to look like.

Yeah, well, and there were also some indications

before Trump kicked off this war

that it was the Israelis, again,

this was some reporting that came out.

You know, Netanyahu come to visit Trump in December,

and it looks like that's when they made the decision,

like, okay, we're going to go to war

and all the, in my opinion,

all the negotiations were totally fake

is evidenced by the fact that they sent two guys

who really didn't know what they were talking about

in order to lead these alleged negotiations.

And of course, while you're in the midst

of these negotiations and the Iranians

have just given up war concessions

that they have ever had,

that's the moment when you choose to actually start the war.

But in any case, there was reporting

that it was actually these Israelis

that were like, way, way, way, we were not ready to start yet.

And the U.S. moved even more firepower into the region,

moved another carousel strike group into the region.

And so the alleged diplomacy was to kind of run out the clock

so that the war could start at a time

when we would be somewhat more prepared.

Just imagine how disastrous this would have been

if it started even earlier when we were less prepared,

given what a disaster it already is.

So yeah, I mean, these Israelis are the ones

taking the direct hits in their country.

And so they now realize that,

I don't know if they ever believed,

they probably didn't, that they decapitated the regime

that the whole thing would collapse.

But once that has not come to fruition,

there's no signs that you're going to have

some sort of regime change.

The Kurds are like, we're not getting involved here.

You're not looking at civil war conditions at this point.

Then the next best option for Israel is to say,

okay, well, we blew up a bunch of shit.

You know, Iran has paid a price.

We'll back off for now.

And then we'll come back later.

You know, we'll do the same thing.

We got Trump in office for a few more years.

We can, you know, later on, we'll talk them into this again.

We'll once again threaten to strike Iran.

If he doesn't, we'll once again, you know,

talk about how they're rebuilding the nuclear program.

By the way, that might be true.

Now, given the logic that we have created,

it gives them every incentive to go in that direction.

So I think that's some of the calculus there.

At the same time, we wanted to take a look

at our friend Lindsey Graham, who we covered yesterday.

It, you know, reporting about, we already knew

he was very influential in terms of pushing for this war.

This is a, you know, near lifelong dream at this point.

You, there is no one happier, I think,

on the planet right now than this bloodthirsty ghoul.

And so he was, you know, making the rounds over on Fox News

yesterday, just talking about how much he is committed

to Israel, how much he loves Israel, et cetera.

Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.

All the anti-Semonites, to all the isolationists,

I don't forget it.

I'm not with you.

I'm with Israel.

I'll be with Israel to our dying day.

They're the best ally we could hope for.

So we have a commander, chief and president, Trump,

who I think is Ronald Reagan plus, plus, plus.

God bless Israel.

We should move all our stuff to Israel.

Thank you.

God bless Israel.

Should move all our stuff to Israel.

I'll be with Israel to my dying day.

I mean, this is a United States Senator.

Him and Ted Cruz, both out there, just openly admitting

that this is their number one priority.

Calling Trump Ronald Reagan plus is also really something.

And it's important to play these comments

and understand this man's mindset

because he has been very influential.

He had a plan to push Trump in this direction again,

Trump's a big boy.

This is his fault, ultimately.

And the reporting is that he ended up being pretty enthusiastic

about going in this direction.

But Lindsey Graham has been there making the case routinely,

religiously for years now at this point.

And so in a lot of ways, he is driving this trainer,

at least he is incredibly important in terms

of why we ended up in this whole mess.

It's funny, Magos.

Like, can president Trump please keep Lindsey Graham off the air?

He's hurting your case.

I'm like, no, no, no, no, no.

He's the only fuckers who can handle this all the truth, okay?

He's sitting here with a blood relationship.

Would they have got some like Angelina Jolie,

Billy Bob Thornton,

wearing each other's blood around their neck?

Some Satanic ritual.

That's going on between the two of them.

I don't, you know, we'll only speculate.

But that's what's really going on with Lindsey and Israel.

But that's the truth, you know?

Yesterday, Laura Ingraham even had Ted Cruz on her show.

And she's like, you know, think it's a little weird

that Lindsey Graham is going over to Israel

and she, you know, coordinating with their intelligence agencies

on how to pressure the president.

Well, he loves America.

That's what Ted Cruz goes, he loves America.

No, he doesn't.

He even said at one point in the interview,

he's like, I'm going back to South Carolina

to convince them to send their sons and daughters

to the mid east.

I am just like, I'm a luck.

Yeah.

And look, people with South Carolina, at this point,

you guys had plenty of chances.

I don't know what the hell you guys are doing down there.

But, you know, the real point that remains

is that we are in some suicidal blood pact with this country.

A significant part of our electorate

is either compromised or ideological.

For him, I do think it's ideological 100%

because he's been saying.

Be a little from Colomay, a little from Colombe.

Yeah, I don't know.

I mean, he knows, right?

But I mean, he's been saying it for 20, 30 years.

Like, this is his entire worldview,

but it does demonstrate the, you know, what we're all into.

And the Israelis may say to David Ignatius

that they're a little worried, but they're calculus

is always escalate, escalate, escalate, escalate.

And you can also see how, in the Gulf,

we are dramatically losing a lot of our allies.

Like, let's go and put to the next one, please, be three.

Good example.

So you have the UAE, which says that the Emirates

reaffirms their commitment, not to allow their airspace,

territory, waters to be used for any military actions

against Iran.

Now, it's not even true, right?

Because you can already see that there has obviously been,

you know, a lot of launchers and other things

who knows even with their own base.

But what they're trying to do is signal to Iran

that they have nothing to do with this.

You've also had multiple instances now

where the UAE is upset with Israel

because they're saying, oh, hey,

Israel is stopped trying to leak

that we are responsible for some attack

on a desalination plan.

And even the Iranians are responding.

Recently, the Pentagon posted a picture

of some missile batteries that were in the desert.

And the Iranian Foreign Minister was like,

thank you for confirming that you have these weapons

on their soil, which is the exact reason

that we are striking you.

But the point of both.

Well, Trump and his press are yesterday

said that Gulf states had launched attacks.

Right.

I mean, who knows if that's true or not?

Probably true, yes, me.

But let's go to the next part because this is very interesting.

This was passed around everywhere.

I'd reference it a little bit in our show

is this UAE billionaire who has been accusing the US

of dragging the region into the war

and rejecting calls from the Gulf states to join.

He gave this long, misive, I'm sure you saw it,

criticized Trump, who authorized you to drag our region

into war.

And as I explained yesterday, there's

no such thing as like an independent billionaire

in these countries.

Like, you only speak and you do it twice,

especially if the government is like, yeah, man, go ahead.

All of your, you know, it's like China.

Like, business is part of the state.

That's literally how they wield all of their power.

It's all intertwined for their own national interests.

He is giving, you know, these long, like,

Bill Ackman-style essays about how bad America's decision

is, how dangerous it is, how they weaken their country,

how they have to question their alliances,

how they're not going to join, you know, the Gulf,

the rest of the Gulf states, in being dragged in.

It's the last, all they want is for this conflict to end.

And you can see why.

I mean, look at this map.

Let's go to the next one, guys, just to show you all.

I mean, look at, I mean, to describe this

as not a regional slash global war at this point,

is preposterous.

If you're watching our show, look at the arrows

of all of the different countries that have even been attacked

or been backed by, or sorry, attacked by the United States,

Israel, whether they've been bombed,

whether Iran has bombed them, the type of rockets,

the number of strikes.

I'm going to talk about thousands at this point of munitions

that have all crossed all of these different borders

just in the span of what, like, 10 days that we've gone now so far.

I believe that the number is now 20 different countries

that are now directly or indirectly involved in this conflict.

It's completely, I mean, it's gone literally global.

Cyprus, obviously, the French, the entire French Navy,

is on its way right now, down to the Middle East.

It's literally a catastrophe, and it's only been 10 days.

It's crazy.

Well, and to go back to our friend, Lindsey Graham,

I don't know who this man thinks he is,

but he's out there directly, like, threatening Saudi Arabian,

offering them certain, you know, defense agreements

if they go along and fully participate

in the bombing campaign.

This is B2.

Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.

I'll lead to my friends in Saudi Arabia.

I've been your biggest champion.

I think the Crown Prince has taken Saudi Arabia

in a completely different direction in a good way.

But here's when I want to say to Saudi Arabia tonight,

I'm willing to do a mutual defense agreement with your country

to give you protection and perpetuity.

Under the agreement I've been pushing,

and I hope we can continue to talk about,

if you're attacked by Iran, we would go to war for you.

Who are you?

Who said that?

You're not, you're not the president,

you're not in the cabinet, you're not the secretary of war,

you're not the secretary of state, you're now freelancing,

offering defense agreements to various countries.

And I think the Saudi piece, though,

is really important.

I understand why he's so upset about it

because there was some reporting that Saudi

was low key or high key interested in this war,

supportive of this war.

I don't know whether that's true or not,

the Saudis denied it.

It could have been, you know, a sort of a planted story.

But in any case, they have a long-term rivalry with Iran.

So they also stand to benefit if Iran

and if the Iranian government is weakened.

But at the same respect, you know,

they are feeling very exposed.

They don't want their country to continue to be attacked.

And so even Saudi Arabia, which of course

has been a very sought long-time ally of the US,

probably one of our biggest allies in the region,

our biggest downside of Israel.

If they're even doing the calculus of like,

I don't know if we really want to be involved with this,

that shows you the thinking here.

And for Iran, you know, winning this war for Iran

just means survival, right?

That's the ultimate goal is just surviving the onslaught

and being able to continue with this particular

governmental regime.

That's what winning looks like.

But the bigger aspirational goal would be to push the US

out of some of these countries in the region.

And, you know, it seems far-fetched at this point,

but if you're Saudi, if you're UAE in particular,

and you're looking at the fact that you thought

you were getting protection from the US,

and instead, it's made you a target.

Well, that is going to change your calculus,

that is going to change how you're thinking

about your relationship with this country

and what you're getting out of it.

There was that, wasn't a Saudi analyst that went on,

you know, Al Jazeera and was like,

was like, they're protecting us,

they're protecting the Israelis.

That's their number one priority.

And again, that wouldn't have been said

if it was not sort of permitted in Greenlit

by the government.

So they're feeling very exposed.

They're begging to be able to buy more interceptors.

We're like, not in, we've like, ghosted them,

not answering their phone calls.

Sorry, we don't have any available to sell you.

And if we did, we would, you know, prioritize Israel

over you.

And they are feeling like we, instead of getting protection

to the US, we have been destroyed.

And for, you know, for UAE,

Dubai, like these places are not going to recover

all these influencers who brought in all these wealthy expats,

they are all fleeing, leaving their dogs behind,

by the way, which is disgusting, to, you know,

tying them to just like dropping them off at shelters

that are over full and tying them to lamp posts

and whatever and just abandoning them there.

But in any case, they're all fleeing,

the brand damage that Dubai and these other locales

are sustaining is going to be irreparable.

I mean, you're talking about generations

before that goes back to the image

that it had previously.

So yeah, I understand why he's upset

because this is not the reaction that he wanted

from these Gulf states as they recalculate exactly

what they're doing with their US defense partnerships.

It is scary.

One of the things I've been holding this word,

but to talk about this with Brandon and Wiker,

but just to give you, you know,

some more global picture, just this morning,

South Korea and the United States confirming

that significant parts of their sad batteries,

those interceptors will be taken

from the South Korean Peninsula for the Middle East

in addition to patriot interceptors

all across the Indo-Pacific region.

So we have burned through 5.6 billion in munitions.

In two days, the first two days of the war,

5.6 billion dollars.

The munitions disaster, we don't will never know.

The full picture, because they're just going to classify it

to hell, look at the actions.

When you start pulling stuff out of South Korea,

that means you've burned through the stockpile

to the point where you think it's going to be critical

and you're going to have to use it.

One more week, it's been only been 10 days

and we already have to do this.

How are we going to fight a war with China?

I mean, that's the joke of this entire thing.

Forget about it.

And that also underscores that we've been talking about,

okay, roughly a billion dollars a day to fund this thing.

That's not even true.

Definitely.

So what does that mean?

If you're talking about just 5.6 billion in just munitions,

I mean, God only knows what this is.

Oil costs, during the war in Afghanistan,

the estimate was that for every soldier down range,

it was a one million dollars in order to keep them

and we had a hundred thousand or some people

so you can do the math and on how that works out.

But it is such a nightmare for defense readiness

for all of these allies.

This is going to seriously rewrite the entire way

a lot of countries look at us.

And it was all preventable.

That's the craziest part about it.

I mean, it's all by choice.

Literally all by choice.

Preventable.

All right, let's get to Iran.

Military life isn't predictable,

but earning your master's degree can be.

With American military universities 40 plus flexible

online master's programs,

you can stay mission ready while you get market ready.

Learn anywhere, anytime,

with an education built to keep pace,

steady, reliable, and always accessible.

Plus military service members, veterans,

and their families can save up to 45% on master's tuition

with AMU special rates and grants.

Learn more at amu.apus.edu.

Steady through every mission.

Discover a spectacular island destination

with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine,

and the cool Bahamian breeze, Bahamar.

Located in Nassau Bahamas,

offers your choice of three luxury hotels,

over 45 fine dining and nightlife venues,

John Batista's All New Jazz Club,

the Caribbean's most luxurious casino,

and one of the kind experiences for the entire family.

Like our 15-acre tropical water park,

wildlife sanctuary, world-class golf course,

and so much more.

Visit Bahamar.com today.

John, I'm putting my foot down.

We can't put off renovating this house any longer.

Our kitchen is so small,

we need to finish the basement for the kids,

and don't even get me started on the bathrooms.

Honey, renovating is so expensive.

We can't do all those projects.

With Renify, we can.

What's Renify?

Renify loans are a new type of home equity loan

only for homeowners during renovations.

We can get up to $750,000

and keep our existing loan mortgage rate locked in.

With Renify, we can do everything on our renovation list

and we don't have to refinance.

That's right.

Renify loans are the only home equity loan

that you can use the after renovation value.

Just what we need.

How do we get started with Renify?

I've already started.

See, I'm at Renify.com.

Visit Renify.com.

That's r-e-n-o-f-i.com to receive a text message

to see if you qualify for up to $750,000

to renovate your home with Renify.

Unlock the future value of your home right now

to get the money you need without refinancing.

Visit Renify.com or r-e-n-o-f-i.com

to get started today.

NMLS, number 1802847.

Terms apply, not all borrowers are properties qualify.

Equal opportunity broker.

All right, so we've covered the Americans,

covered the Israelis.

Let's talk about how the Iranians

are thinking about this war right now.

CNN has a reporter on the ground

who was able to interview a top foreign policy advisor

to the IOTOla about their war aims

and how they're looking at things at this point.

Let's take a listen to that.

So the United States says it's drastically degraded

the Iranian military, the capabilities as far as missiles

that's concerned, drones is concerned.

How much longer can you do this?

That is one of the false narratives

that the United States government is producing.

Iranian military is quite strong, as you see.

Because they have the motivation,

they have the arms that they need,

which are producing Iran as a matter of fact,

we are not dependent on any other country

for weapons and arms.

So your side is ready for a long war

with the United States and Israel.

Choose that.

Do you consider this an existential threat

to the Islamic Republic?

It is an existential threat today from the Republic.

And therefore we have to say it full might

as we are doing now.

Is your side seeking or will you seek a ceasefire

with the United States at this point in time?

And with Israel?

I don't see any room for diplomacy anymore,

because Donald Trump have been deceiving others

and not keeping it his promises.

And we experienced it in two times of negotiations

that while we were engaged in negotiation.

I mean, that last part there is just incontrovertible fact

that we have repeatedly used the promises of diplomacy

as a ruse and a cover to actually commit acts of war.

So it's not surprising that's the way they're thinking about it.

And of course the Iranians, they want to project strength,

they want to project stability.

That is all in their interest.

And of course you should take any government official

whether it's ours, the Israelis or the Iranians

with a million grains of salt.

But I think that the logic is pretty straightforward.

They just need to survive.

They understand they cannot allow Israel and the US

to walk away now, having sustained some blow,

but nothing really significant.

American consumers are not super feeling the pain

at the pump quite yet.

The markets are volatile,

but they're just sort of roiling right now.

You haven't had a huge collapse.

You have not had enough pain to deter the US or America

from doing this, sorry, the US or Israel.

They're one in the same at this point, I guess,

from doing the same thing again.

And so I believe them when they say,

look, we are locked in for a long war.

This is what we are planning.

And so listen, they have surely sustained significant blows, right?

I think the Navy has been significantly degraded.

I think we have had a lot of the visible missile launching sites.

I think we've all seen the images of Tehran,

these apocalyptic images that effectively carpet brought bombing,

the number of sites, thousands of targets hit, et cetera.

So I'm not saying they haven't been hit hard,

but they are fighting an asymmetric war.

Where what we have to do is,

I mean, the goals are shifting on a daily basis.

We got a new list of supposed goals this morning

in this press conference.

But what we have to do requires extraordinary acts,

including very likely putting ground troops on inside of Iran

in order to grab the loose nuclear material or foam

and some sort of regime change or whatever.

And all they have to do is hold on and make the price

unbearably high for us and for the Israel.

It's a fight of survival versus a fight, basically,

of choice of convenience.

It's like a side quest, basically.

Yeah, that's right.

At this point, I mean, and that's why I use Trump's legacy,

and Trump's legacy, Israel's existentialism,

and fake biblical fantasies.

Israel's like third-temple fantasies, but for us,

I mean, for me, seven killed too many.

For them, they've lost over 1,000 people.

They barely even blinking an eye.

I mean, remember, if you roll the tape, we were like,

look, guys, they are prepared to take 90% casualties

at the top.

They are ready to fight to the death.

I do not think that we understand.

We haven't fought an enemy like that,

well, actually recently with the Taliban,

but like really at a large industrial scale

since Vietnam, to really understand what it means.

Remember, we won the tactical war in Vietnam.

Every time I make the joke about Mac Vita Iran,

the joke is that it's called military assistance

command Vietnam.

And this is what they would do in the Vietnam War

today, we killed 250 V.C. in the firm.

And we dropped X amount of bombs,

then same amount of bombs that we dropped on

Dresden some 20 years ago.

And America was like, wow, yeah,

look, we killed 250 statistical fake.

But the point was, did it work?

No, I mean, we ended up losing the war in Vietnam.

They're like, we dropped X amount of munitions

in Operation Rolling Thunder

than the entire Second World War.

And everyone was like, wow, look at us,

taking the fight to North Vietnam

and the North Vietnamese were like, we don't care.

We'll take a million casualties

and we're just gonna keep fighting.

They're like, this is a war of colonialism to the death

and whatever it takes, no matter what,

we will outlast you until our die.

Their leader literally died

and they kept the war going forever.

They won that war.

That's all you have to do, survive, survive.

And ultimately, that's how you're able to beat

the same with Afghanistan, not just us, Soviet Union.

How did the Soviet Union, I wouldn't say it broke their back,

but it really hurt them with their 10-year-long engagement.

They blew the shit out of that country.

And if you think Israel is unrestrained,

the Soviets fought that way in Afghanistan,

they didn't care at all.

They murdered women and children, bombing campaigns,

helicopter raid, brutal, brutal stuff.

They still lost, right?

And that was just the Taliban

that was just generic Mujahideen

funded by the United States.

So you can see the storybook for all of this over the years,

which is why for them, that's another thing.

Why do we not give credit to our enemies?

Like we look at them as barbarian idiots

or one of the, like all the stuff I grew up in the mid-2000s

hearing about these people.

The current Ayatollah, he speaks fluent English,

if you're wondering, do you hear that guy too?

These people are very well-educated.

They're not stupid.

They've studied us for a long time, 47 years.

They're the ones that we're always talking about.

Well, that's 47 years of us studying them

and 47 years of them studying us.

These are highly educated people

who have thought a lot about their collective defense.

Now listen, I'm not gonna defend every decision they make.

I think they made a lot of screw ups along the way,

but we are where we are.

Like you have to respect your enemy

and the people who you are fighting.

Yeah.

And it is very clear, after only 10 days,

that this has knock on the way that we thought it would

and that they have operated, not just militarily,

but strategically.

They're, you know, their ability

to draw the whole region into a conflict,

to plunge things in the global chaos.

It was exactly what you would do

if you're trying to fight asymmetric war.

Even the drone program,

do you have to give credit where it's due?

They studied the environment and they go,

okay, we don't have a lot of money.

What's there, you know, critical,

where can we strike them in an asymmetric fashion?

Billion dollar, that system, ah,

we'll create these drones

and then we'll battle test them in Ukraine

with our Russian friends.

We'll get years and years of targeting data

and see how they can get shot down

and refine the process and all that.

I mean, that's a smart military strategy.

That's what you do when you're expecting a conflict

with the West and obviously that has been

the number one problem that we face now on the battlefield.

So you have to respect these people

because if you don't,

you're gonna fall into some propaganda, you know, effort

or whatever and that's how you end up

with tons of casualties.

Well, and I do wanna emphasize

the military top brass, new,

that this would be a problem, right?

They understood that there were incredible vulnerabilities

here for the US.

They at least had some sense seemingly.

I mean, they, you know, were leaking

to a number of newspapers,

exactly some of the problems that we had in fact encounter.

But I think, you know, because you have Trump

who has this messianic view of himself

and who feels like, oh, all the experts told me

that I couldn't do X and Y and Z

and I did it anyway and I was proven right.

He just was not, he did not wanna hear it

and he wouldn't hear it.

He thought, oh, well, you know,

I had all these people warning

that it'd be a disaster in Venezuela

and it went so well

and all these people warning,

all these panicans warning before the 12-day war in Iran

and look at what a glorious success that was

and how I got to have my mission accomplished moment.

So I'm just gonna go back in

and by the way, my friend BB has telling me

that this is gonna go great.

So we're gonna do it all over again.

And I think to your point, you know,

the internal view of the Iranians is that they are not stupid,

that they are, you know, an adversary

that was capable of flirting and strategic thought, et cetera.

What is sold to the American people

is that they're just crazy, you know,

theocratic mad men.

And so they're totally irrational

and you can't deal with them.

And I think Trump, because he's a stupid and uneducated person,

basically bought the public story

about what the Iranian government was.

And again, I'm sure he's being fed that by Lindsey Graham

and by BB Netanyahu, et cetera.

And so he comes in like a bull in a China shop

and now has found himself in a trap

that he cannot figure out how to get out of.

And, you know, one of, I think,

the probably tactical mistakes from the Americans

and the Israelis was assassinating the Ayatollah.

We could put C2 up on the screen.

There were gigantic celebrations in the street

in Tehran celebrating the, you know,

the naming of the new Ayatollah,

of course, the son of the previous Ayatollah.

And so it can't, quite contrary to the idea

that there was gonna be some uprising

against the government and that this government would fall.

In fact, you've had the predictable opposite impact,

which is a hardening of nationalist sentiment.

Now, that doesn't mean there aren't still

plenty of people in Iran who are not happy

with the, you know, Islamic, theocratic regime

who would like ultimately

some sort of different form of government.

But right now, you and your family

and your country are under attack.

Of course, there's going to be a rally around the flag effect.

Of course, that is gonna happen.

And that's much more of what we're seeing

at least manifesting visibly in the streets,

is a hardening and a support for the existing government.

Trump floated, hey, maybe, you know,

maybe we'll assassinate this new guy as well.

You know, if he doesn't play ball with us,

which of course he's not going to, they could well do that.

They could well accomplish that.

You think that that's gonna be the end of the,

you know, this particular Iranian regime?

No, of course not.

They would just appoint a new one.

And, you know, you know, this is the case

because you see how they operated with Hamas,

a number of times that they killed, you know,

all the senior leadership,

whether they were political leadership

or military leadership, did that destroy Hamas?

No.

And the Iranians are much better funded

and, you know, are much more sort of deeply entrenched,

frankly, than Hamas is.

You can see it with Hezbollah as well.

They thought Hezbollah was dead and gone.

I think the Israeli public thought basically Hezbollah

after the whole beeper attack,

that that was it end of story.

Hezbollah is able to fight back

against the Israeli incursion into Lebanon right now.

And the Israelis, the IDF on the ground

are sustaining some significant blows

at the hands of Hezbollah right now.

So, were they set back?

Absolutely, was there a time period

where they're extremely weakened?

Absolutely, are they as strong as they were before?

Probably not.

Are they still able to exist as a coherent organization

and strike some blows against you?

Yeah, absolutely.

And the Iranians are much better equipped

to sustain these blows than either of those organizations.

That's all very, very true.

Last thing I think, C4, let's put this up there

on the screen from Dropsite.

They spoke with Iranian officials, senior officials

they are saying it is unlikely Iran would accept

any temporary deal that leaves open the possibility

that another war could be launched in the near future.

Iran will not accept any ceasefire at this stage

because what is pursuing is not a mere end to hostilities

which can and will be easily broken by Israel in the U.S.

But a deterrence restoring outcome

that creates the conditions for lasting

enforceable settlement.

The strategic logic is that holding out now,

despite the cost, is the precondition

for an agreement that actually holds.

So look, I mean, we box them in to a single corner.

And when you do that, you just have to sit there

and take the pain for as long as possible.

I hope that the other side gives out.

And I don't think it's coming.

And they want to give us a taste of our own medicine

in terms of the economic warfare

that we've been waging against them for decades.

They know that they have control

over this incredibly important strategic choke point.

Now, this is going to be very damaging

to their economy as well.

But again, for them, it's existential.

For us, we don't even want to be doing this.

So yeah, they're like, look, $200 a barrel per oil.

You want that?

Let's keep going.

Let's continue in this direction

because we are going to make you pay.

And I just will remind that we played earlier

that that sought of a professor who has some contacts

within the Iranian government who is based in Tehran

saying, we want to be in this at least until the midterms.

They want there to be an economic price,

devastating economic price, but all of us, by the way,

all of you out there are going to pay

and the entire world, frankly, is going to pay.

They want there to be a devastating economic price

and a devastating political price for this president

and his party.

So that's what they're committed to.

Yeah, that's right.

All right, let's get to Brandon Wiker.

He's a great military analyst.

He's gonna break down everything that's happening

with Iran.

Let's get to it.

Yeah.

Military life isn't predictable,

but earning your master's degree can be

with American Military University's 40 plus

flexible online master's programs.

You can stay mission ready

while you get market ready.

Learn anywhere, anytime, with an education built

to keep pace, steady, reliable, and always accessible.

Plus military service members, veterans and their families

can save up to 45% on master's tuition

with AMU's special rates and grants.

Learn more at amu.apus.edu.

Steady through every mission.

Discover a spectacular island destination

with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine

and the cool Bahamian breeze, Bahamar.

Located in NASA, Bahamas offers your choice

of three luxury hotels.

Over 45 fine dining in nightlife venues,

John Batista's all new jazz club,

the Caribbean's most luxurious casino

and one of the kind experiences for the entire family.

Like our 15-acre tropical water park,

wildlife sanctuaries, world-class golf course,

and so much more.

Visit bahamar.com today.

What if your soda actually did something for you?

Introducing Sky Pop Protein Soda.

Sky Pop Protein Soda has 10 grams of complete protein,

zero sugar, and real delicious soda taste.

Sky Pop Protein Soda.

Reach for the sky.

Get your Sky Pop Protein Soda now at Target.

This is an I Heart Podcast.

Guaranteed Human.