3/17/26: Trump Demands $100 Billion, Rachel Maddow Deranged Monologue, US World Order Collapse, Trump NatSec Resignation

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Turning now to funding, we just talked a lot about the economic impact of this war

about how the war is going tactically, but remember, wars have to be paid for and has to be

paid for by all of us.

And Rao, the bill is starting to come due.

Let's go and put this up here on the screen.

Jake Sherman, over at Punchbowl, one of the most tapped in congressional journalists in

the U.S., here's what he writes, with war raging in the Middle East, the DHS is still shut

down.

The storm bearing down on the East Coast Congress is returning to session today amid an

array of problems, priorities, and deadlines.

No prices are at $100 a barrel.

The Strait of Hormuz's close, 13 Americans are dead, but let's get to the headline.

The White House Pentagon and Congressional leaders have already begun talks about supplemental

funding for the Iran War.

We don't expect any request to hit Capitol Hill this week, but the two sides are trying

to figure out how to pass it.

We have had several sources suggest the package may carry a price tag of 100 billion or more.

Not makers see this as potentially the last must pass bill of the year and may have to

try and attach their own costly proposals.

Reconciliation, the best option for GOP leaders, there is no chance Democrats would allow

anything to pass without a vote on ending the conflict or reigning in Trump's freedom

to operate, but any new spending will have to be offset with cuts elsewhere.

So this would be the worst of all political worlds for the White House.

They would have to put 100 billion into reconciliation and they have to cut 100 billion from the

rest to the federal budget.

They've already stripped it as far as they could go in the last reconciliation package.

So who wants to bet where that money's coming from?

100 billion dollars.

Let's be clear here about this 100 billion.

What is it about?

It's about a supplemental funding request for the immense amounts that have already been

spent.

This isn't just about munitions, and I'm going to get to some of that here in a little

bit.

Don't forget, so we talked about it in our A block, the carrier, right?

The carrier or the fire.

Guess what the last carrier fire cost to repair?

$70 million, $70 million just to repair the last fire, similar fire back in 2008.

I was just looking at that.

Let's talk a little bit about jet fuel.

Let's talk about which is currently trading at $200 a barrel.

Let's talk about the $200 million a month or so that it costs to send a single carrier

strike group.

Let's talk about the cost of diverting a Marine Expeditionary Force through the straits

of Malacca all the way over, and then potentially having to deploy.

Let's talk about all of the new ISR and the intelligence people, all the reservists.

I know a couple of reservists.

They've all been called up.

They're working night shifts now at the Pentagon.

These are people who not usually were working, right?

And so now everybody's starting to get paid, all of these reservists are all over there.

Remember, vast majority of the people who have been killed already in the war were actually

called up from the Army Reserve or from the Air Force Reserve.

We've got, I mean, I would estimate the current true cost of the war already to probably

be about $100 billion.

That doesn't even mention the interceptors and the drones and all that stuff, which by

the way, I mean, this is my counter-intuitive, I actually do think we need to pay for all

of that.

But it puts everybody in a bind here where, yeah, we should pay because obviously we need

real defense readiness like South Korea is out there.

Their economy is getting destroyed.

They get the president basically declared emergency this morning and talking about, he went

on the airwaves.

He's like, we have a serious problem.

Sri Lanka, I don't know if you saw this, Sri Lanka, Wednesdays are now off.

They're like, we're not working Wednesdays to save oil, to save gas.

I mean, that's, it's a disaster in the rest of the world.

But in our economy, it's just going to manifest in high prices.

And then politically, how could any Democrat or honestly, even some of the anti-war Republicans,

how can you vote for the war because it's not Congressional authorized?

And it's basically a free hand to keep the economic punishment of our own country going

for as long as possible.

This is why you don't get into a war without Congressional authorization in the first

place.

If you authorize it, then yeah, you better fund it, okay?

Yeah.

We need well articulated strategic goals, but I'm going to brace everybody.

The way that this is all going to play out is they're going to say they want everybody,

they want us to leave our men in uniform hanging, oh, you complained about the interceptors,

but you don't want to replace the interceptors, no, no, no, no, no, we can talk about that,

we can talk about that strategy.

But in the interim, right now, right now, this is about a free hand to keep this BS war

going.

And I think that everyone really needs to brace because this will be a titanic political

fight.

That's what they're getting.

They're already using that rhetoric with politicians who say on the Democratic side,

who say they oppose funding the war, like how can you leave our service members at risk?

And you know, and some of the Democrats have said, like a list of slot kids, she's like,

well, we're in it now.

So we have to support them.

I think most of, if not all of those Democrats out, aside from John Fetterman, who's lost

cost.

But anyway, I think they will all change their tune because what you're going to be signing

up for is literally making the case to Americans, we're going to cut your health care, we're

going to cut snap, we're going to cut head start, we're going to cut like the things that

actually benefit the American people to fund this war that is not authorized, that no

one asks for that, you know, prior to launch, had like a 20, 30% support rating, you're

going to ask people to give up real things that they benefit from the federal government

in order to fund that war effort.

You're not asking the rich to pay anymore, you're not asking for that, you're not asking

the military industrial complex that are getting rich, you're not asking those corporate entities

to pay anymore to fund this absolute disaster, no.

That is going to come, it is going to skin off the back of a population that has already

been screwed and then you're going to pay again at the gas pump and then you're going

to pay again when you go to the grocery store and the cost are passed through to you and

you're going to pay again when companies do, you know, greed flation like they did before

and recognize like, oh, there's an inflation going on, I can add even more to the price

of my goods and I can get away with it because we know they did that during COVID and they

will surely do it again.

So that is who is going to actually pay for this war.

Good luck, good luck making that case to the American people.

This war right now is as popular as it will ever be and the best polling I've seen for

it is 50-50, the best polling I've seen for it, compare that to the Iraq war.

There was overwhelming support at the beginning, Afghanistan war, even more was like 90% support

for the Afghanistan war at the beginning.

Wars do not get more popular over time, especially not the way we fight them where we end up

getting bogged down in Quagmire, you know, losing massive amounts of treasure and lives

and creating a gigantic mess, which this thing all ready is.

So to your point about the cost, I saw an estimate that just in munitions expenditure, it's

been over $12 billion.

Just that.

And so whatever they're briefing Congress with, they're like, oh, it's been $11 billion

so far.

That is total and complete bullshit.

It is already cost so much more for that than that.

But yet when you go to the government, you know, could we maybe have healthcare like

the rest of the world?

Oh, no, we can't afford it.

We, you know, get some support in terms of affordable housing or build on social housing.

Oh, no, I'm sorry.

We can't afford it.

When it comes to funding the war effort, there was always endless cash, an endless number

of politicians ready to sign up to foot the bill, to push that to the taxpayers to fund

the latest adventure for the military industrial complex and the war profit.

I'll also just show you guys like the problem in the way that we fight.

Let's put C2 up here on the screen.

Okay.

So this is a great Wall Street Journal story about these reaper droids.

And by the way, everybody get, get familiar with this stuff because these are the arguments

that they're all going to be making whenever they're asking for more money.

So US reaper drones take the fight to Iran, but at a cost.

So they talk about Iranian Shia drones have got an intention.

The US is raging its own drone war, right?

So these are surveillance drones, widespread strikes, MQ-9 reaper drone.

They've been using the battle, attacking hundreds of targets, surveillance, and they're

able to strike.

The US military has done little to highlight the role, but the tell tale indications of

their operations are evident in a lot of the videos that Centcom has been releasing.

They're flown remotely in the US.

They were used a lot during the war on terror.

Well, a current estimate puts it that some 10% of the entire fleet has now been lost as

a result of not just this conflict with Iran, but I missed this.

It was also with the Houthis.

Now the unit cost of each one of these drones is about 30 million dollars.

Compare that to the unit cost of the Iranian Shia drone between 20 to 100,000, depending

on.

I saw an estimate that was seven.

It depends.

So I actually listened to an analysis on this.

It's pretty interesting.

The short range ones are cheap.

Obviously, this is like seven grand.

Apparently, this is the Ukrainian model.

The Ukrainians have these like really tiny ones, which will only fly like a couple hundred

yards.

Obviously, this is super cheap.

The Iranian ones are capable of hitting like Dubai and stuff.

Those are more expensive.

Obviously, because they have to fly several thousand kilometers.

But regardless, we're talking about a 30 million dollar drone versus a 20, 30 thousand

dollar drone, all right?

Because the math doesn't math whenever this, whenever it looks like this.

Now, the argument is going to be, well, what we have to do is we have to top up, you

know, this stuff.

Instead, really what we should do, and we should do this with everything, the Pentagon

bureaucracy, is take a look at the Ukrainian conflict, the Ukrainian Russia conflict.

Take a look at Iran.

What's the lesson is that cheap, hot, cheap, it's easy to produce, mass-producible stuff

is always going to be massively beneficial in a long-term engagement.

And the problem with the US military, I've talked about, it's like a Rolls-Royce engine.

Like, it's super expensive, and it functions at a really, really high level.

But when it breaks, massively expensive to fix, you need all these mechanics and technicians

and very hard to produce, did you know, so Tomahawk missiles, we fired untold numbers of

them.

Do you know how many that we produced last year, 57, 57, we've fired several hundred now

so far, over several years of Tomahawk missiles.

There's one facility in Arizona, which makes them all one.

That's it.

You've got no decent, you've got no decentralized industrial base, nothing.

So there's even a fire there.

It's over, right?

And think about that, too, from a perspective of like our own vulnerabilities.

So when they come for this supplemental, the demand needs to be, no, look, we can have

more Thad, we can have more Patriots, Tomahawks and all that other stuff.

But to do that, it needs to be, you know, to our actual interest, not for some endless

ridiculous conflict here with Iran.

We need to be looking at Korea, Japan, the Asia Pacific and say, these are the places

which deserve it.

These are the places here at home, why we need it.

And this is where Congress needs to step in, they need to set actual rules where you can't

just be going around launching wars of choice and aggression.

So we got to balance like, I understand people are like, we don't need any more weapons.

It's really not about that.

What we do need to do though is to make sure that these ridiculous defense industrial companies,

which are here in Northern Virginia, aren't printing billions of dollars at the expense

of us as a taxpayer and making us all less safe.

Like we need a total reimagining.

And a lot of the people I know in the Pentagon, this was their whole thing.

That's the craziest part is that all of these ideas, I know the people who thought them

and they work in the current Pentagon, they, many of them wrote essays, why we should

not go to war with Iran for this exact reason.

And now we're here.

Can you imagine the prospect of having to cut further cut Medicare or something like

that to fund the war with Iran, which again, is the very likely possibility right now.

Yeah, because that's where the money is, I mean, the government is like missiles and

healthcare.

Yes, that's right.

That's what we mostly spend our government money on, social security that has its own

funding mechanism, but that's largely those are the two buckets.

And so yes, this $100 billion apparent, it's going to come from somewhere.

And that is the place where the cuts can and will be made.

So that's the case that they're going to make to the American people.

And there's another piece of this, like I'm not a, you know, a deficit hawk.

You know, I'm not a ballots budget amendment person.

You know, I usually think that this, like how are you going to pay for it thing is silly

and it's not the way that federal government, you know, it's not like balancing your household

checkbook.

We print currency, we are the world's reserve currency, et cetera.

So it's very different than your household budget.

However, the honest fair focus says he doesn't think the dollar as the reserve currency is

going away anytime soon.

And I do put a lot of stock in what he says.

However, there are a lot of others who were like, things are going to move increasingly

in that direction as the US, you know, is this declining empire, trying to throw its

weight around the world, getting humiliated currently in Iran.

And the Iranians are saying, oh, you can bring your oil tanker through the straight

to form as long as it's denominated in Chinese one.

The BRICS countries have been, you know, making their efforts to try to create an alternative

currency.

The war against Russia, the proxy where we've been waging Ukraine against Russia has also

pushed things in that direction.

And if the dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency, then you really do have to

start worrying about the debt.

Then that is something that you are going to have to figure out and they're going to be

massive, massive cuts.

So, you know, the more that we spin up that debt, in a war that is itself undermining our

position as the world's reserve currency, the more you are courting an absolute economic

catastrophe for our own country here at home.

Yeah, and I mean, this, look, the reserve stuff is all important.

And I actually think Yannis's point is good too, where he's like, look, you know, don't

write the obituary just yet.

And because everything seems obvious in retrospective, even Suez.

In the time, nobody was like, oh, my God, the British Empire is over, it's not really

how it went down.

Yeah, it takes only in retrospect when you look back and we're like, oh, wow, like

obviously, that was super important, right?

Exactly.

So, I mean, I've talked about it before, nobody in 1919 said, oh, the British Empire is

over, right?

They're like, actually, we've won, you know, yes, we're horribly, you know, damaged, but

yeah, we owe all this money to the United States, but look at all this vast swath of

territory.

We control now in the Middle East.

Where is it carving an egg?

Exactly.

And something a noose around their neck, right?

It's up actually after the Second World War, that's when they really wake up and they

realize that the entire world is different.

But those types of events are extremely rare.

It's slow bleed.

Like if I were to guess that, you know, the history of our decline, it'll start with Iraq.

I think Iraq is going to be the real one, which you can look at the balance sheet.

We tried to have a political corrective.

How many change elections did we have for since Iraq?

So Obama, Trump, Biden, Trump too.

We had four change elections of Americans being like, please get us out of this.

And not just at the presidential level at the congressional level, it's just back and

forth and back of wave election after wave election after wave election.

That's actually a sign, by the way, of empire is that you have a bipartisan, they're called

like grandiose in the British empire, where no matter who changed in the government, everyone

was still on the empire.

And the whole point is that the bipartisan elite locked up in this has put us to this funding

role, where as you said, the government is weapons and diabetic health care for old people.

That's it.

Plus social security.

That's basically all we actually do.

There's 2% of the budget to weather balloons and doge bullshit about the department.

That's nothing.

That's a little like a rounding in.

It's all social security, health care, prescription drugs, diabetes for fat old people and

weapons.

Boom.

I mean, as an example of that, I've been looking into, I've been, I don't know if you

guys have followed these dope episodes or really something, but in any case, it was the

largest peacetime reduction in workforce in our history, okay?

It was a huge cut in terms of the number of bodies in the federal government.

It didn't matter at all.

In terms of the cost, cost went up, okay?

There was a negligible impact on the overall federal budget, because that is not what

the money is spent on.

So they got rid of all these people and the spending went up because that's not where

the money is spent.

And you've got a lot of people who run around with no understanding of that.

They think that if we just cut our aid to Botswana or something, then, you know, we got

cancer.

That was another one, debt servicing.

Because the interest rates are going up, and there's nothing we can do really about

that.

I mean Trump is trying to pressure the federal reserve and we'll see if that works.

But that's not something that you can cut in a reconciliation bill to fund a war effort

for example.

Exactly.

But look, we have lived through these types of events before.

So when we had Vietnam, we had Stagflation, obviously, there was a horrific crisis that

followed.

Don't forget Iraq.

I mean, Iraq was a huge impact on the precipitating financial crisis.

It seriously drained major parts of the economy and juiced all of this ridiculous government

spending, the Bush administration was throwing everything they could in terms of incentives

too to try and make the impression that everything was okay and then it all goes bus in

08.

A lot of people don't actually remember how important Iraq actually was to the eventual

crisis of 2008.

And you know, I was just looking this morning, you got a three-month high here in mortgage

interest rates, right?

Some like 6.8%.

There gets 6.7% plus 19 basis points just from the last wake.

6.7% is, I mean, that's insanity.

That's really, really high.

And yeah, there's a boomer out there who bought their house for like 100K who is telling

me about how they paid a 14 interest rate.

Not the same when the average price is like 500,000 here in the US, but we're going to have

to, I actually think this one could genuinely trigger like a major budget discussion and

political cycle in Washington ahead of the midterms and it's going to be all self-inflicted.

They have to pass it.

Trump is going to go all in for war funding, which means you have to cut something, which

so the dams can run against the war and against the cuts and against all the other nonsense

that's been going on for the last year.

That's how you get a 2006 style blowout.

And that's what we're on track for.

I'm Bailey Taylor and this is Icarl.

You may know me from my Icarl series I've done on the streets of New York over the years.

Well, I've got good news.

I am bringing those interviews and many more to this podcast.

Yes, we will talk about the style and the success, but we are also talking about the pressure,

the expectations and the real work with the women's shaping culture right now.

As a woman in the industry, you're always underestimated.

So you have to work extra hard and you have to push the narrative in a way that doesn't

compromise who you are in your integrity.

You know, I like to say I was kind of like the silent ninja.

Each week I have unfiltered conversations with female founders, creatives and leaders

to talk about ambition, visibility and what it really takes to build something meaningful

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I feel like pulling the curtain back is important.

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This woman's history month, the podcast, if you knew better with Amber Grimes, spotlights

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I think coming out of where I came from, I'm from the Bronx, I think I grew up really

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you get your podcast.

So speaking of the Dems, should we go take a look at their premiere propaganda channel.

So Rachel Maddow has, she has figured this out, sorry.

She has unlocked the mystery of why it is we're going to war.

And it's because of these foreign countries manipulating the president and you know, the

way that Jared Kushner is in a hawk to them.

Guess what country?

She does not name among the foreign countries that she believes are the reason, the primary

reason that we are now at war in Iran, I'll just, I'll let you guess and you can take

a listen to what she has to say.

Kuibono, right?

Who benefits?

It's always useful to start that question in any country.

Who benefits?

Who wants Iran bombed off the map and for their own reasons?

Who are Iran's rivals and enemies?

Pirenially it's the Gulf Arab states, countries like Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates

and Qatar, you know, Qatar, the country that just gave Donald Trump a really, really nice

$400 million plane, really a gilded flying palace for his own use both during the presidency,

during his presidency and after Trump plans to take that plane with him and keep using

it after he leaves office if he ever leaves office.

And you remember the United Arab Emirates, they missed for recently structuring a totally

pointless crypto financial transaction so that $2 billion of it would be stuffed into

the Trump family's otherwise worthless brand new crypto financial firm.

And of course you remember the Saudis who stuffed another $2 billion into the pockets

of Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, just as Trump's first term in office came to

a close.

You might remember enough people were alarmed about that when it happened that the Trump

folks actually sort of bothered to come up with an excuse for what made that okay.

They said, don't worry, Jared will never again work for the U.S. government.

He's never coming back to Washington.

So it's okay that he's taken all this money from the Saudis now.

We will never have to worry about having somebody involved in U.S. policy who has also

just been given billions of dollars by Saudi Arabia, apparently for no reason.

Well, that was the explanation when he took all that money from the Saudis at the end of

Trump's first term.

And now today, who has been leading the negotiations on behalf of the United States government with

Iran before we just started this war with them today?

I mean Secretary of State Mark Rubio was in St. Kits this week.

It wasn't him.

No, it was Jared Kushner, President's son-in-law.

Recently paid billions of dollars by Iran's chief rival and nevertheless sitting there alongside

Trump's tiny real estate friend Steve Whitkopf, who has sought recently to improve his considerable

family fortunes by going to Qatar to seek money from its sovereign wealth fund.

Weird that those talks didn't work, right?

I mean, how insane is it at the beginning when she's like, who benefits, who wants to see

Iran bombed, who constantly hates Iran?

And you're like, I know, I know, I know, how about the country run by the guy who said

this is his dream for 40 years?

How about that?

How about Israel?

And oh, Qatar, Saudi, and look, I think like there is a point about the Saudis in particular,

regional rivals with Iran, Sunni versus Shia, all of that.

There's some reporting suggests the Saudis were in on this war too.

Okay, Miriam Adelson gave Trump a hundred million, if you're going to talk about the corruption

here, gave him a hundred million dollars for his campaign.

How is that not anywhere in your little listicle here?

Like it is crazy to me.

This is the second time she's done this too.

This is like, she's all in on it.

She's all in on it.

This is her new recipe.

And there will, I don't watch any capabilities very often, but I'm sure there will be others

at the network who take up this line because they realize she's setting the tone.

She's like the quarterback of the network.

She sets the tone for what are the acceptable things to talk about and what rates and

where is the narrative going?

And I'm just going to say, I, even with the Democratic base who, you know, probably continues

to love Rachel Maddo, like this is not going to work.

The views on Israel and the overwhelming view that it was Israel trying to cover up the

Epstein files that effectively got us into this war in Iran.

That is going to persist among the Democratic base and the broader public regardless of

the way that Rachel Maddo tries to shape this propaganda effort.

But that is, it was wild to see her go down the list and then just leave Israel off

and die.

I'm watching it.

I'm like, is this willful at this point like our huge and obviously I think the only

answer is yes.

Yes.

This is the only NBC news approved way of being able to talk about corruption and why we

got into the war in the first place.

You know, every once in a while they'll have somebody on their network who tells the truth.

But be honest.

I mean, take a look at CNN at MSNBC and Fox.

How often do they talk about Israel in a way that tells the truth about how they dragged

us into this war?

Yes, with Trump.

Yes, with Trump.

But do they talk about the 40 year commitment?

Do they do hear any of that type of criticism?

The closest we got was Laura Ingram talking to Ted Cruz asking if it was weird how tight

in Lindsey Graham was in with Mossad.

But even then she still supports the war, right?

That is about as close as I have seen so far.

There's been no CNN panels, no MSNBC panel, no gas, almost nothing.

Really, that actually goes after the true reasons for this.

So that's part of the reason why when you look at public sentiment to, first of all, it's

crazy.

How enough people are still even with all this overwhelming propaganda are like, yeah,

no, we're not doing this.

But second, why the boomers are still where they are right now.

They literally just don't have the information, like period.

Well, it's also why treatoparcy is such an important media figure because they will, they

have him on MSNBC, they have him on CNN and he's one of the few people that they have

on who actually understand the world and tell us the truth about what's going on here.

But in terms of basically the only group in the country, not basically literally, the

only group in the country that still supports Israel the way they used to is boomer Republicans.

The democratic base has complained, I mean, it's gone.

It is done.

It is over.

And independence overwhelmingly as well.

We can put this up on the screen, guys, from NBC News.

It shows you the way that views on Israel have shifted just between 2023 and 2026.

So in three years' time, okay, back in 2023, when you ask people are your views of Israel

positive or negative, overall, 47% said positive and only 24% said negative.

Now the overall numbers, okay, this is not just demo.

This is overall in the whole country, 32% have a positive view of Israel and 39% have

a negative view.

So the plurality of the country now has a negative view and then 30% are neutral or

don't know.

With Democrats, only 13% still have a positive view of Israel, 57%.

So a strong, almost super majority of democratic base voters have an actively negative view

of Israel.

Back just three years ago, in 2023, it was evenly split, 34 to 35 in terms of views.

Independence only 21% have a positive view of Israel.

The only partisan group that continues to have a net favorable view are Republicans.

Even there, there's been some decline.

So back in 2023, 63% of Republicans had a positive view of Israel.

Now it's down to 54%, still a majority, but you can see the bleed among younger Republicans.

And as I said before, if you do the age breakdown, it is boomer Republicans who are still holding

the flame, still carrying the torch for Israel the way that they used to.

But I think this is important, not only because of the news propaganda piece, but I really

think this plays into the way Israel is thinking right now and part of why they're behaving

in such a psychotic manner.

I mean, they have that in them, but why they're lashing out in this extraordinarily

aggressive way in Lebanon, in getting their puppet government in Syria, obviously in Iran,

in the West Bank, in Gaza.

It's because they know their political clock is ticking, that the lock step support that

they have had from both Democrats and Republicans is over.

They've got their guy in the White House right now.

They need to go for it all.

The whole thing right now, because there are going to be no guarantees for them in

the future.

You're exactly right.

The actual generational shifts in this, this is part of the reason why Israel wanted to

go for broke now.

They want to become the global superpower, the regional power that they've wanted to for

many decades.

They want to shed the United States, destabilize the Gulf, basically call the shots for America

and for the rest of the world.

But look, it's going to be up to the future generations of America how it's not just about

our security relationship with Israel.

It's going to be about a security relationship with the whole world as to whether all of

this is working out.

So, I don't know.

I hope it works out better.

I really do.

We have Glenn Dixon standing by.

Let's get to it.

All right, guys.

From more analysis on the Iran War from a global perspective, we are joined for the first

time.

And I'm excited about this by Glenn Dixon, he's host of the Glenn Dixon YouTube channel,

which Sagan and I both watch quite routinely.

He's also a professor of Russian international affairs.

This is on June economics conservatism and the greater Eurasia initiative.

Great to see you, Glenn.

Good to see you.

Thank you so much for the invitation.

I'm a great fan of both of you.

Well, thank you.

It's certainly mutual.

I just want to start with your top line view of this war, what it's about and how it's

going so far.

Well, I think it was quite evident that this war was always about regime change.

And I think what we often underestimated was that regime change in Iran might also

entail the destruction or vulcanization of Iran.

And I think this is quite evident because when everyone speaks of regime change, there

is no replacement government in the rear, which can simply be put in with legitimacy.

So either this would have to be the Shah 2.0 rule with brutality or the country would

then disintegrate into civil war between different factions.

So I see this, I think this is important because it explains that this is not just a threat

to the government of Iran, but also the country.

So once Iran sees this an existential threat, it shouldn't be any surprise that it reacts

in this way, which is why many of my guests, both Americans and Iranians, the podcast,

can't predict this well before the invasion, that if they're attacked, they will stray

the closest straight of our moves rather quickly and just begin to attack all American

bases in the entire region because this is a fight for survival.

And I think this is one thing we left out when we saw this war simply being about helping

protest or liberating girls because if this was simply the case, the Iranians wouldn't

see this as existential threat and they wouldn't respond in this way.

So I think this is just escalating more and more and we're getting into some very dangerous

territory, especially with the potential of the destruction or of a carg island.

I think that's when all bets are off.

Glenn, I'm really curious actually for your view of the bigger geopolitical implications.

So obviously you're an expert with Russia and with Ukraine, you've been analyzing this

war now for years.

Now we have watched actually oil climb to high prices.

The Kremlin has been able to get some sanctions taken off their oil, they're massively enriching,

their war machine.

I just saw that the, I think it's the Belgian prime minister came out yesterday and said,

maybe we should normalize relations with Russia.

This is already having huge ripple effects across the globe.

Tell us how you see that.

Well, this is part of the problem with the, the, the, the, the, the runward.

That is for four years, we tried to knock out Russia from the ranks of great powers and

it failed.

Right.

And especially when Trump took over a year ago if we couldn't do it with Americans, we

can't do it without them.

And nonetheless, the Europeans tried to keep it going, so the US is still involved, of

course, with the intelligence, the targeting, logistics, also selling the weapons instead

of necessarily providing them for free, but the idea for Europe was if we just keep it

going for a bit longer, then perhaps something would happen in Russia.

Now of course, the Iran war has major implications for the Ukraine war.

The Ukraine war was already going very poorly, that is, there's a massive manpower shortage,

so the Ukrainians don't have enough men, the US doesn't have that much weapon to send

anymore, so it's a weapon shortage and also there's an economic problem.

So you end up with this situation where the Europeans want to buy weapons with money they

don't have to buy American weapons, which don't exist to arm Ukrainian soldiers, which

are, you know, also don't exist anymore.

So it was always a huge problem, but now, of course, with the Iran war also entering,

and there's even less weapons coming from the US, and the Europeans, they are, well,

the energy prices are now going from bad to worse, and they're preparing themselves for

a complete economic meltdown, so it's not ideal to keep this war going.

So I think there's some voices now who would like to see an end to the war.

The problem is that the Europeans locked themselves into narratives of simply an opportunistic

Russia wanting territory, they never recognized that this was an existential threat for Russia,

which meant every time we escalated, the Russians would just respond in turn.

So it's a little bit like the problem with Iran, we don't recognize the security concerns

of our opponents, so we misjudged their policies and how they would respond to ours.

One of the rationales that has been offered sort of after the fact of why this war is

happening, why this war is actually a smart strategic play for the US is that since China

gets a lot of their oil for Iran, this is going to be damaging to China.

What do you think is the Chinese perspective of the Iran war and the likely impact on that

country?

Well, they do get oil from Iran, so they don't care for any disruptions, and of course,

if the US would be successful in regime changing Iran, either put in a government loyal to

the US or the country disintegrates or turns into chaos, it would be bad for Iran, sorry,

for China.

But you know, it can also go the other way, that is, if the United States now fails in this

war, which seems more likely than it will, and part of the objectives of the Iranians

is to expel the Americans from the regions, that is to not just destroy bases, but also make

the Gulf states reach the conclusion that they do have more security without hosting

US bases than suddenly the US is no longer a key security provider in the Middle East,

if it's not a key security provider, then some of the foundation of the petrodollar

goes away.

Why would they still then trade only in dollars, especially when in new economic centers

of power?

And then if all of these petrodollar aren't recycled into the US, what would happen

with the AI tech bubble, which is in direct competition or in the AI competition with

the Chinese?

So there's a lot of things that can go wrong for the United States in this competition

with China.

But of course, if the US could seize control over these natural resources, again, this was

very openly an objective in Venezuela to take control of it, make sure they don't

link themselves too closely to Russia and China, but also in the Middle East, as Linsegraim

suggested.

We're going to make a ton of money here, and obviously from the energy going to, well,

whoever America wants to go to instead of China.

So there is a lot more of a great power politics play going on here.

And I think this is all, you know, this is what ties the competition with China, Iran,

Russia.

We're living in a very historical time.

We're seeing the end of the hegemonic era, which was established after the Cold War.

And we're now seeing this transition into multi-polarity.

And at the moment, it's being pulled in both directions, which is a source of, yeah,

some of the more violent parts of our conflicts now.

You know, one of the things I'm interested in and Glenn here is to think, you know, we've

talked here about China, but I'm also curious for your view as to how this will play out

in terms of history.

And so you talked there about the end of the hegemonic era.

We talked to Yannis for a focus earlier, and he said, I would be hesitant to say that

this would be the immediate death of the American Empire.

And compare it, let's say, to a Suez moment for the British.

However, as I said, even at the time of Suez, nobody was like, this is the end of the British

Empire.

It's only in retrospect that we're able to look back and see that.

If you had that lens on and you were looking with the Iran crisis, but all these other things,

what would the specific timeline and events that you would look for to say definitively?

This was the beginning of the end.

Well, I also don't want to go for the Suez Canal comparison, because Britain had very

different fundamentals than the United States.

The US is a massive power.

It will remain.

So even if it's an economy who would begin to collapse, it's going to recover.

It's going to be a key player.

So I wouldn't dismiss it as simply disappearing.

Britain could disappear, but that's not the case with the United States.

But I think it's a longer transition, and it's worth keeping in mind what the world

orders signifies.

That is, what are the basic rules, which depends on how security is created?

When you have the international system with all these large powers competing against each

other, then the question is, what creates security?

Well, usually it would be a pursuit of indivisible security, because if countries compete

that is, if the United States builds a missile, that's secured for US, but insecurity

for China, and then China will respond and end up in the security competition.

So usually, peace is created if you recognize the security concerns of your opponents, and

you try to elevate the common security, that is, indivisible security.

Well, after the Cold War, there was only one central power, and the US promoted a different

approach to security, which was the hegemonic peace, which means you don't have to take into

consideration other centers of power, you only have one power, which dominates.

And indeed, the more the US could dominate, the less any other countries even coalitions

could aspire to challenge the US, this would be the source of security.

So this was the liberal hegemon.

One center of power, there's no more great power rivalry, and that hegemon is a liberal

democracy, so it will try to transcend some of the uglier parts of former politics, so

elevate the role of democracy in human rights.

This was the main idea, it would be a benign hegemon.

But of course, the key problem is over time, the hegemon will always exhaust itself, as

we see in this more debt, and also depends on keeping other powers down.

So eventually, other centers of power would then figure out that they have to work together

to balance the US.

So you see institutions such as BRICS, like why would Brazil, Russia, India, China, South

Africa, and Iran, and all these other countries suddenly have a commonality?

Well, of course, they want a different economic architecture, but they also want to balance

hegemonic aspirations of the United States.

So I think these are the wider trans-happening, and what I would look for would be some of

the key crises we had, for example, the attempt to break China.

This was a key part of this, of trying to restore hegemonic, but it doesn't work.

The Chinese are not just an industrial power, they're also on high-tech power.

If anything, they can use their AI more to implement it within industrial capacity.

So they have more ability to, well, to make some revenue of their AI.

We saw then with Russia, the objective under the Biden administration was to use the Ukrainians

to try to knock out Russia, and then the US could focus on China.

It didn't work.

Trump then instead tried to get Russia on our side of the ledger by improving relations,

and to some extent the same applies for Iran.

The assumption, if you can knock out Iran, it take out an important player at the southern

end of the Eurasian continent.

The problem is all of this tends to backfire.

That is, if one goes after Russia, it will align itself closer with China.

Now the attempt to defeat the Iranians, they will link themselves closer to both Russia

and China.

And ideally, at some point, I think the United States will reach the conclusion what many

people thought was America first, which is if the US just pulls back a bit, just as

far as to aspire to be one among many great powers, it will be able to restore its domestic

strength.

And suddenly, if it doesn't have that big footprint on the Eurasian continent, then the

Europeans, the Russians, the Iranians, the Chinese would begin soft balancing each other

at least.

But we're not quite there yet.

I think there's still this efforts by the United States to restore its hegemony.

But I think that the defeat in the Ukraine war, and now, likely the defeat in the Iran

war, will more or less put an end to this.

My last question for you, Glenn, is we had a treat to party on, and he said, you know,

in the Israeli perspective, they feel that this war is going great, that this is all going

exactly the way that they want it to go.

They finally succeeded in getting a US president to launch the war.

They've been pushing for years and years, of course, blame still lies with Trump, but

no doubt Netanyahu and others allied with him were making the case and that ended up being

persuasive to Trump.

Do you view it that way?

And how do you see the interests of Israel diverging from the interests of the United

States?

Well, the Israelis aren't that different from the Europeans in this regard because the

Europeans also think that what's missing with the United States is not the capabilities.

They still believe the United States has these infinite resources and capabilities to

essentially defeat whoever they want.

So the Europeans wanted simply America.

We can bring them back into the war against Russia, then more directly than we will win.

And Israel is more or less thought the same, that is, if we can just get the United States

to attack Iran, yes, it might not succeed.

With the regime change, but in another long war, over time, the Iranians will be weakened.

And hopefully the government can be toppled and even possibly the country could be vulcanized.

So getting finally a US president after all these years, and they have talked about his

war for many decades now, this is opportunity to, as long as the US kept in the war that

they can knock out Iran eventually, maybe not now, maybe in five years.

But I guess here's where the Israel and the US begin to diverge, that is, it's not in

United States interest, especially this critical time in history because, as I said,

the world is becoming multipolar.

That's just a reality in terms of the international distribution of power, which means the US

has to make priorities.

And those priorities as the national security strategy outlined is to focus on the Western

hemisphere and East Asia.

That's where America's peer competitors, which means if you pivot to somewhere, you have to pivot

away from somewhere, and that would be pivot away from Europe and the Middle East.

And this is the key problem.

This is why Trump has made a mistake because the longer he remains in Europe that absorbs

American resources, but it also pushes the Russians further to China, and also in the Middle

East, the longer it stays in Iran, the more it's going to divert its focus away from East Asia.

Indeed, the US had to pull out its thad missiles and patriots from South Korea to send to the Middle

East. The whole point of pivoting to Asia was, it was supposed to go the other way.

The weapons were supposed to be pulled out of Europe and the Middle East and sent to East Asia.

So we're seeing everything going in reverse, and this was not in the strategic interest of Trump.

This is not what the security strategy indicated.

They were supposed to do the opposites, but now, of course, one year later, the US is still involved

in the war in Europe, and they're also now doubling down in the Middle East.

So I think this is a strategic mistake for the United States.

The fact that they most likely won't win this either makes it even worse.

So no, I think you're going to see this expressed more now in terms of divergence in the US.

How do you, Israel? What is America first? Is it the partnership with Israel or putting America

before Israel? I think you're going to see more splits there now, and that's reflected in how the

strategic interest of America is changing. Absolutely. Glenn, you are such a great guest.

We can't wait to have you back, and everybody goes subscribe to Glenn's channel. He does such

incredible interviews. We're going to have a link down in the description, and we really hope

that people will go watch his content as well. So thank you very much, Glenn. We appreciate you.

Thank you so much.

I'm Bailey Taylor, and this is Ikrall. You may know me from my Ikrall series. I've done

on the streets of New York over the years. Well, I've got good news. I am bringing those

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compromise who you are in your integrity. You know, I like to say I was kind of like the

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This woman's history month, the podcast, if you knew better with Amber Grimes,

spotlights women who turn missteps into momentum and lessons into power.

I think coming out of where I came from, I'm from the Bronx, I think I grew up really poor.

I didn't know that then, because I very much used my creativity to romanticize life.

And I'm like, my mom did a really good job of like you step back and you're like,

whoa, we, I don't know how we made it. So a lot of my life was like built out of like

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if you knew better with Amber Grimes on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you get your

podcast. Huge breaking news that we're going to have to add here at the end of the show. We can

go ahead and put this up here on the screen. Joe Kent, who is currently serving as the director

of the National Counterterrorism Center, has resigned from his position effective immediately.

Let me go ahead and read a sum of his letter, which is genuinely shocking. President Trump,

after much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as the director of

National Counterterrorism Center effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the

ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our country. It is clear we started this war

due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. I support the values and the foreign

policies that you campaigned on until June of 2025. You understood that wars in the Middle East

were a trap that robbed America of the precious lives of our patriots and depleted the wealth and

prosperity of our nation. Early in this administration, high ranking Israeli officials and

influential members of the American media deployed a misinformation campaign that wholly undermined

your America first platform. So did pro-war sentiments to encourage a war with Iran. The echo

chamber was used to deceive you into believing that Iran posed an imminent threat to the United

States and that you should strike now. There was a clear path to a swift victory. This was a lie

and is the same tactic the Israelis used to draw us into the disastrous Iraq war that cost our

nation the lives of thousands of our best men and women. We cannot make this mistake again

as a veteran who deployed to combat 11 times a gold star husband who lost my beloved wife Shannon

in a war manufactured by Israel. I cannot support sending the next generation off to fight and die

in a war that serves no benefit to the American people nor justifies the cost of American lives.

I pray that you will reflect upon what we're doing in Iran. Who are we doing at four? The time for

bold action is now you can reverse course and chart a new path for our nation or you can allow us

to slip forward further towards decline and chaos. You hold the cards. It was an honor to serve in

your administration and to serve our great nation. Absolutely stunning news. Let's just dissect

it a couple of different ways. Number one, this is the national director of counterterrorism,

highest security clearance in the entire United States government. Israel or sorry,

in Iran posed no threat to the United States. Number one, number two, Israel is the person

manipulating intelligence, Israel pro war lobby. Those are the people who convinced you in order to

go into war with this war with Iran. This is one of the most shocking resignations of the entire

Trump administration. I think it might be the first like real big one of somebody who was aligned

with the America first movement. And let's consider the consequences here. They're going to try

and destroy this man. I guarantee you they will try to indict him. They're going to say he breached

his, they're going to say he breached his security clearance by sharing information. He was never

real patriot. He was somebody, you know, he had mags or a snake, something like that. Antisemite,

the full stop of the pro war machine and the US government are going to destroy this man.

Just watch and wait. And especially if he starts going on the podcast circuit and talking,

do not forget, you know, that this is somebody who deployed combat multiple times,

special operations background, gold star husband, doesn't matter. They're going to do everything

that they possibly can. But this should be wall to wall news. We never even really had high profile

resignations like this under Iraq. And I mean, I think the fact that you have a high, high level

security official with the top security and clearance saying this is Israel's war that they

manipulated the intelligence that you're making a huge mistake that they posed no imminent threat

to the United States. You have to ask seriously how about how all of the lies that have been told

by this White House? And I think second, what did he know to have to resign at this point? He knew

no end in sight. And that's why he decided to do it now. So it is a, I mean, a stunning development

just right now. Yeah. And I mean, just so people know, I don't know if you've been following this guy,

Joe Kent ran for Congress as like a hardcore Trump loyalist. America first, there was a controversy

where he was like affiliated with Nick Fuentes, Grieper types and that disavow them. He was a stop-to-steel

guy who's like a January 6th truth or like that's the type of

milieu that he's in. So hardcore supporter of Trump, he was a Tulsi ally, which I think is also

an interesting piece of this internally because apparently Tulsi and the lead up to the first

Iran war, the 12-day war, was arguing against it and making her case fairly forcefully,

ends up getting completely sidelined. They joke about her as DNI standing for do not invite,

gets completely signlined now. She's sent out to do a bunch of like election nonsense and

Fulton County Puerto Rico, whatever. She's not no longer part of the Iran war deliberations. And

so in any case, Joe is one of her allies internally in the administration. So to see him

resign in this very critical and public fashion, I mean, it's hugely noteworthy. And Sagar,

I'd be, you know, interested to get your perspective on, you know, the historic comparisons to

Vietnam, you know, sort of similarly timed concerns about wars in the past and how this stacks

up against them. I will say, you know, similar to the Tucker Carlson line about, oh, it's all

Israel's fault. And Trump, you're getting tricked and blah, blah, blah. I just, I have little patience

for this argument that the President of the United States, who has, can staff as administration

however he wants, can listen to whoever he wants. He can listen to Lindsey Graham or he can listen

to Joe Kent or, you know, he can listen to Tucker Carlson or he can listen to Ted Cruz like he

gets to choose what direction he wants to go in. I really chafe at the notion that he's just

being tricked and manipulated and he's, you know, it's really not his fault. It's all the Israelis.

Yes, the Israelis wanted this war. There is absolutely no doubt about that. These

really have wanted this war for 40 years. And every President up until now has said, including

Trump has said no to engaging in this aggressive hot war against Iran. So that is the one piece

that just when I see it framed in the way that he frames it, it really, you know, I just chafe

against that. I understand your point, but don't forget he's trying to admit to do thing. This

is a real political statement because he wants to try and have, and he's going to get the narrative

which he wants, which is that a member of the administration is resigning in protest. Let's

look, I mean, he said all the Israel stuff. He also resigned and basically applied this is on

Trump, right? This is a different thing than saying it internally. This is somebody who is putting it,

I mean, literally like possibly his life on the line. And I don't mean just like his actual safety.

I'm talking about, remember this with this administration, FBI is going to be up his ass.

They're going to be doing any potential investigation. The entire Zionist media is going to

destroy this man. They, I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets magically audited by the IRS.

Like, I really am not going to put any of that out of line. You're first man on the line. Yes.

He is like, look, Vietnam, remember this, nobody at this high profile, I've ever resigned over

from this early on. They said it internally and it's very clear that he probably tried. I would

put this in a totally different category. This is a person with a ton to lose. He's not rich. He

doesn't have a lot of resources. This is somebody who genuinely has a lot to lose out of this

one and he's putting it all out there. No, that is absolutely fair. I just get so sick of people

treating Trump like he's just, you know, a child being manipulated and being tricked into various

things and he's always blameless, et cetera. But the import of it and the risk that he's taking

here is genuinely heroic. I cannot even describe to you like in this environment where we have the FCC,

you have cash, Patel, Keystone Cash, Pampondi, these people. You think Trump is going to take this

line down. The full force of the United States government is coming after this man and he's in

11, you know, served 11 tours in combat and he said, no, I can't support this. He's one of the

only people who's not full of shit. Remember yesterday when I said, it's time to resign.

And that's the call now from Joe Kent. So if you're listening to this magically, if you're not

Joe Kent or if you're any of these other people, you know, there's only one person who can't resign.

It's the vice president. Everybody else, you're appointed and you serve either the pleasure of

the president or of your own accord. It is time to go. It is time to create the situation that people

were not courageous enough to do after Iraq to stand up in front of the American people and say,

this is a bullshit. And they, oh, that's why the war continued on. Don't forget Colin Powell,

he dissented. Yeah, oh, it took years for him to get out. And then, what, two to three years later,

we learn about all this stuff that he did inside the admin. But at the time, when it mattered the

most, when he could have resigned and used his immense prestige, he did nothing about. You went

and did that UN speech. Yes. And, yeah, and, you know, tarnished his reputation forever and

actually made the case for the war. Well, I am wondering if he will be, you know, a one-off

and you're right that the administration will do everything they can to smear him and make his

life absolutely miserable to try to guarantee that he's a one-off or if this starts a chain

of resignations of, you know, effectively fleeing the sinking ship, right? Looking at this and

going, this is a disaster, you've already got one guy who's taking this step, you know, maybe this

is the move that I need to make as well. And if he can, if he can do it and he can speak out and

he can survive, maybe that's the right move for me to to find the exit. So in the, you know,

coming days and weeks, that will be the thing to watch, whether this is one guy and it's a

flash in the pan and they, you know, do everything they can to make him miserable and destroy him

and everybody else takes that as like a cautionary tale. I was like, I'm just gonna keep my mouth shut

or whether this opens is like a, you know, opens up the dam, opens up the floodgates and

others start to leave. I don't think a dam is going to break. I do think it takes somebody of

immense principle to have to speak out on something like this because you just have too much to

lose. I mean, your whole family is literally, is your entire well-being is at risk financially,

you could go to prison, you have no idea. And I wouldn't put any of it past this government.

And that's why if you look at Iraq and at Vietnam, the dissenters were all internal.

They didn't start speaking out till 1969. Some of these people though, this is this is the time

to actually try to do something about it. And what Joe has done correctly is that now Trump has

to be asked about it. Now every member of the White House of the administration is going to be

asked about it. Oh my God, Tulsi. I would not want to be her because they were allies, right?

They were good friends. Any of the people who were friends with Joe can't, the witch hunt,

that's going to happen. If unfortunately I hate to say it, this will probably work out net net

for the Zionists inside the government because they're going to say that anybody who dissented

is disloyal to you and they're going to use them as an example. So the truth is, is that internally,

this is probably going to empower all of the Zionists in the pro-war lobby. But the only check that we

really have on our government is the people, is the democracy and the press at this current time

before an election. And it's actually really incumbent on everyone to make this a big story.

This guy resigned over the war. He said it's a lie. He said that everything they're telling us is a

lie. And that's the only way to create an immense pressure cycle on the Trump administration.

Although I wouldn't put it past our mainstream media, you know, who largely support the war,

to try and, I don't know, what are they going to say? He's a groipe or a socks or something.

I can see it already. Yeah. Well, he's given them some things to work with.

Okay. Look, Joe, you said a lot of things. In fairness over the years, you know, I wouldn't

have done them. We run in some of the same circles in terms of the anti-war movement. And I can

just tell you, like, there were a lot of people who feel this way in the Pentagon, in the White House,

all across the government. He's the only one who actually did anything about it. Or at least he's

the first one to actually do anything about it. And that wipes away a lot of sins in my book.

All right. We will see you all later. Thank you guys so much for watching.

Appreciate it. Write an Emily on tomorrow. They'll see you then.

I'm Bailey Taylor. And this is Ikrall. This podcast is all about going deeper with the

women's shaping culture right now. Yes, we will talk about the style and the success,

but we are also talking about the pressure, the expectations, and the real work behind it all.

As a woman in the industry, you're always underestimated. So you have to work extra hard

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