3/24/26: Trump Iran Negotiation Fantasy, Insider Trading On Iran War, Pentagon Preps Boots On The Ground

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Good morning, everybody. Happy Tuesday. I have an amazing show for everybody today. What are we at Crystal?

Did we do? We've got some new reporting from Jeremy Skahill about what exactly is the truth behind these alleged negotiations that Trump touted between US and Iran and break that down for you.

Also, treat a party digging into just how much money Iran is actually making off of this conflict.

Might be surprising to a lot of people. Kind of reminds me a little bit of the Russian Ukraine war situation.

So break that down. Revelations that apparently some people are getting very rich off of Trump's market timed announcement yesterday.

And, you know, enforcement apparently doesn't exist anymore. So that's a thing that's happening.

Bren and Wiker is going to join us again to talk about the troops that are being moved into the region and what they could be used for.

Top Israeli politician is pushing for annexation in Lebanon as part of the greater Israel project.

This is all unfolding against a backdrop of mass programs in the West Bank horrifying scenes there.

Airport chaos as Trump blocks a TSA deal. And we're going to take a look at the use of AI in the Iran war.

And also the just Bizarre world where two of the three leaders heads of state here have been rumored to be dead and actually just be AI.

So you already can see this destabilization of reality that's happening in real time.

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Really helps other people find the show. As Crystal said, though, let's go ahead and start with these so-called negotiations.

Do they even really exist? Well, our friend Jeremy scale over at Dropsite News.

Spend a lot of time speaking with the Iranians doing some reporting. Here's what he had to say.

The most breaking stuff I have for you is that Trump today.

Post on truth social that there's been this breakthrough that he's pausing his threat to to bomb the Iranian electrical grid and other energy infrastructure.

Because there have been these talks going on between the United States and Iran.

And Trump implies that he has some secret squirrel that he's talking to in Iran.

And he doesn't want to name who it is because he doesn't want that person to be killed.

It's unclear as he means by Israel or by or by the Iranians, you know.

But what I'm told is that there have been no negotiations direct negotiations with the United States.

And that what the Iranian officials are telling me is that every time a third country comes to Iran and they say the United States wants to talk.

Iran says, let us explain to you our conditions. And in short, what the Iranians are saying is that they will not agree to the kind of ceasefire that took place last June

after the so called 12-day war because the Iranians view that as having been a gimmick to buy the United States in Israel time, to rearm, to reposition, and then come back in with this full blown war that they launched on February 28th.

So they're saying they won't go for just a ceasefire that doesn't have conditions attached to it.

They also want any cessation of the war not only to apply to Iran, but to apply to two other fronts of battle as the Iranians see it.

Iraq as well as Lebanon where the Israelis are increasingly engaged in ground operations, very heavy bombing.

Hezbollah, which Israel had said, was wiped out, has been launching dozens upon dozens of rockets every single day into Israel.

So they want those two countries also to be party to this ceasefire deal. They're also saying that they want reparations paid by the United States.

And they want Israel to pay, but they don't want Israel to pay directly. They want that to happen through the United States because they don't want to take anything directly from Israel.

Good update there from Jeremy on the negotiations and he's exactly right from everything that we've been able to figure out.

Let's go to the next one and put this up here on the screen. So basically for the best we can tell, here's what happened.

The last couple of days, two days prior, Sunday, very early morning, our time, the Turks, the Egyptians and several other countries gathered in Egypt, diplomats from those countries.

They were able to make contact with the Iranians and obviously they're also speaking to the United States.

The Pakistanis were party to these tax talks as well. The Turks, in particular, have a better relationship with the Iranians.

They've been talking quite a bit to several of the people over there. They have been reaching out to them about what potential peace deal would actually look like.

The Iranian line is very simple, a cessation of all hostilities, not now, but forever, as in we need a total and a final piece to this conflict.

Second, we will demand some reparation of some kind, either in payments or in sanctions relief as a result of this war.

The United States line, the Egyptians and the Turks have been calling the United States. This is what eventually cost Trump to taco and to say that he was calling and extending his five day deadline off.

The United States line remains today. No ballistic missiles, no regional proxies, no nuclear program.

Now remember on the nuclear program, they've already said that they're not going to pursue a nuclear program.

But on the ballistic missile front and especially on the regional proxy front, those two, it's a nonstarter.

Regional proxy is already a nebulous term. It means nothing.

But let's talk about the ballistic missile. I mean, really, really think about this.

You are in a war and the other side says, well, we will stop shooting you if you just give up all your bullets.

What are you going to do? And by the way, that's the only credible deterrent that you actually have.

The only ability to extend and project power, have some deterrence, have to be able to extract some cost from the enemy and its allies.

Would you give up your missile program five years of a new of a missile basically giving up not only missiles, but all of your production?

Who would be stupid enough to sign up for that deal?

Oh, and by the way, you've been bombed twice under the cover of diplomacy.

So this is where things now currently stand. Now a lot of things could change.

So let's put a three up here on the screen. I do want to be clear. There are efforts right now by the Pakistanis.

So here's some drop site. Pakistan is emerging as the key back channel.

They have positioned themselves as central intermediary between Washington and Tehran.

Various outlets confirming active efforts to facilitate the conflict.

The financial times of the senior Pakistani officials have been relaying messages between Tehran and Whitkopf

with the Prime Minister speaking several times with the President of Iran as well.

Reuters had said that the Vice President, Steve Wyckoff and Jared Kushner would expect to meet them in Islamabad potentially this week.

But again, there's been no confirmation. There are people who are out there posting jets that are on their way.

Totally wrong. I actually confirmed it. It had nothing to do with that.

It was a Pentagon official bridge call. He was on his way to India. He's not going to Pakistan.

Prescheduled trip already had been announced. It has nothing to do with these potential negotiations.

So that's where we stand as a right now. We are nowhere closer to any sort of a peace deal.

And in fact, like what you really see is a desperation on Trump's behalf on Trump's side to portray the reality of this while giving nothing on the back end.

And that's why I think setting this stage for this while there's this kabuki going on to try and prop up market prices and crude oil futures

while thousands of ground troops remain on their way to the region, which we'll talk about with Brandon.

What have we learned now under Venezuela and under Iran?

Follow the carrier strike groups. Follow the troops. That normally is the precursor to military action, no matter what nonsense that he's saying out there in public.

So I just want to be very clear. There does not appear to be any breakthrough whatsoever in these talks.

Yeah, that's right. I mean, the Iranians are sending back. Here are what our demands are.

And as much as you might think the Iranian demand sound delusional things like reparations.

Their demands are actually much less delusional than the American demands are at this point.

Because from the Iranian perspective, they're like, we're winning this war.

Like you just had to talk. You threatened to blow up our entire electrical grid.

We were like, all right, bet. Then we'll blow up, you know, various assets in the region.

And Trump, just before the markets was open, was like, well, let's press pause for five days.

Now, I'm continuing to be of the opinion. And I think soccer based on his comments just now is also of the opinion that a lot of this is just buying time for Trump to, you know, amass these additional forces in the region.

Once again, using a ledger diplomacy, this diplomacy doesn't even exist. It's fictional diplomacy.

As a ruse in order to, you know, pursue whatever next escalation he wants to pursue.

And then meantime, by the way, the war is ongoing. It's not like, you know, Israel struck within Iran yesterday.

There were, and then Iran struck back. There were blackouts reported in Kuwait.

They were able to hit inside of Tel Aviv.

So this war continues, you know, while this supposed cease five day ceasefire once again time for the markets to close on Friday.

I think we've seen once again, you know, the thing that really does scare Trump is the bond markets.

And that was a big problem, probably even a larger issue for him in the immediate term than the, than the oil price of oil per barrel.

So, so that's where we are. And here's the other piece I go. I want to go ahead and put a nine up on the screen.

This is from Tree to Parcy, who did some digging into the war economy for Iran.

And what he find may really surprise you.

He says energy industry insider in Iran tells me the following and it is stunning.

Before the war, Iran produced just shy of 1.1 million barrels of oil per day and sold it at $65 per barrel minus an $18 discount.

So roughly $47.

Today, it produces 1.5 million barrels a day. So more and sells it at $110 with only a two to four dollar discount.

So they're producing more and they're selling it at a vastly elevated price.

This he says does not include petrochemical sales that not only have increase but are now being sold to a larger set of customers compared to before the war.

Moreover, Iran is receiving payments through new mechanisms that bypass the UAE, which were set up after the June war.

In essence, and this is really important to understand, Trump and Israel's war has ended up delivering Iran de facto sanctions relief.

That means Iran is all the less incentivized to end the war and less the agreement provides Iran with formal sanctions relief.

So far to the contrary of the idea that they were going to decimate Iran's economy and it's going to be a disaster and they're going to have all this economic pain.

No, they're making more money, more money because of the war.

And, of course, obviously, they continue to control the straight-of-war moose and apparently what was not anticipated, I mean, Trump didn't anticipate they would close the straight-of-war moose at all.

But certainly what was not gained out and anticipated appears to be the fact that they'd say, no, no, we're not actually closing the straight-of-war moose.

We're just closing it for you. We're still going to sell our oil.

And if you want to come through and you want to pay our $2 million toll and you want this to be denominated in Chinese Yuan, come on down.

And I'm happy to have your business. And so this has created a very unlikely dynamic here where, you know, again, in terms of putting pressure on the Iranians to get them for some sort of concessions from them, we are in the total opposite land right now.

The U.S. would have to make some serious concessions right now if they wanted to end this war.

I'm sure it's possible at this point because, I mean, number one, if Trump just, like, withdraw'd in humiliation, it would basically be the end of the American Empire, you know, total humiliation.

It certainly would be the end of his presidency.

But number two, Iran needs those guarantees that we're not going to be back here again in the near future.

And that part of how they get that guarantee is by exacting a severe price so that not just Trump, but every future American president understands, oh, this is not a good person.

Part of the problem. We're locked in a real battle of bad incentives because what you could actually hear and treat this voice yesterday, he's afraid that the Iranians think that they're right and too high right now.

Yeah, they're going to keep on pressing. And let's be honest, they are right in high.

So just this morning, India's reliance confirmed one of the large, it's like one of the largest industrial conglomerates in India.

They just purchased five million Indian barrels of Iranian formerly sanctioned oil, a bunch of ships that just passed through the Straits of Hormuz straight on their way to New Delhi.

And so the Indians, and again, look, it's not just my heritage, I just respect the way these people conduct business.

They're like, look, we're not with America, we're not with Russia, we're in it for us.

There's cheap oil on the market, we're going to buy it.

What did they do? They're not party to the war, they call the Iranians up.

Modi's like my dear friend, the president of Iran, every leader is his dear friend.

He calls him up and he's like, hey, I need my ships through. I need oil. They're like, okay, no worries.

Although, I think the US also, the US also gave them the green light to do that.

No, no, that too. But I'm saying if you put all this together, you can clearly, you can clearly very see here that other countries are exploiting and going end loops,

you know, to the extent that they can around the United States. So what does Iran feel?

They're in the poll position. They're able to command the straight.

They're able to demand, in some cases, their reports of people paying $2 million for passage,

which is approximately $1 per barrel, easy. They'll be able to reclaim that in an insurance surcharge later on down the line.

They actually feel more emboldened. If you're the IRGC, you've established some credible deterrence.

You've gotten rid of this idiot supreme leader, 86 year old.

He was always holding us back. Now we have our new guy who injured whatever, basically, who's controlled.

I mean, the IRGC is running the show.

Of course, and that's the other thing. What have the people been telling us now for years?

The IRGC are corrupt goons while the rest of the country starves, they get rich.

As tree, they're getting richer. They're more rich than ever before.

They're more in control of the company or of the country. They control all the political facets

and they're getting filthy rich now off these oil sinks. Would you surrender in that scenario?

Now listen, they could be destroyed by a U.S. ground invasion, but that's coming on later.

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And then just to show you all how the control that they have,

let's put A4 up here on the screen.

So the speaker of the Iranian parliament,

I'm not going to try and pronounce his name, I apologize.

The Israelis and the US were saying that he was the person

they're negotiating with immediately after those reports break.

Here's what he puts out, our people demand the complete

humiliating punishment of the aggressors.

All officials stand firmly behind their leader and people

until this goal is achieved.

No negotiations with America have taken place.

Fake news is intended to manipulate financial oil markets

to escape the quagmire in which America and Israel are trapped.

So it actually does appear as if they have, you know,

look, maybe he took a phone call or not, we have no idea, right?

But what we do know is that he's at the very least pressured

internally for him to actually come out and deny this.

And you know why we know some of this?

Trump let it kind of slip.

Trump was asked on the tarmac yesterday, who are you talking to?

He says a top person, and I can't tell you who it is.

I don't want them to be killed.

Let's put A6 and let's take a listen.

We're going to speak to you, Mr. President.

A top person, don't forget.

We've wiped out the leadership phase one, phase two,

and largely phase three.

But we're dealing with the man who I believe is the most respected

and the leader.

You know, it's a little tough.

They've wiped out, we wiped out everybody.

No, not this supreme leader.

Nobody wants to be that, nobody wants that job right now, you know?

Nobody's exactly looking forward to being the head of that particular country.

Perhaps we'll be able to solve that.

So he says it can't tell you who it is, because he doesn't want them to be killed.

Now, they might be killed by the right, they also could be killed by the Israelis.

Right?

So let's clear.

There's a lot of people who might be killing them.

The second thing is that he's obviously flailing on the Straits of Hormuz.

So for example, somebody asked him, he said, who's going to be in control of the Straits of Hormuz.

Someone says it'll be, he says it'll be jointly controlled by who.

He said, maybe me and the next Iatola, let's take a listen to that.

So this is Hormuz, who's going to be in control of that.

That would be opened very soon if this works.

How soon?

I made it.

I made it.

I made it.

I made it.

I made it.

I made it.

I made it.

I made it.

I made it.

I made it.

Maybe me.

Maybe me.

Maybe the United States.

Me and the Iatola, whoever the Iatola is, whoever the next Iatola, look.

And there'll also be a form of a very serious form of a regime change.

Look at Venezuela, how well that's working out.

We are doing so well in Venezuela with oil and with the relationship between the president and elect and us.

And maybe we find somebody like that around.

Still has Venezuela fantasies after the war continues to spiral.

It says, me, me, the next Iatola.

So what is that?

I don't acknowledge the current Iatola.

So I might have to kill the current Iatola.

These things can only be accomplished through massive ground force, invasion, nuclear weapons.

I hate to say all these things, but there's just no other option.

Like if you have the only off ramp is basically surrender, which I mean, as you said, his psyche, not just his psyche.

Think about it.

Like something I've been thinking about a lot is what Joe Kent told me is one of the reasons he resigned to trying to put pressure is he said,

I've been inside and I know how the sent comm machine gets rolling.

And what he means by that is that there are not guys, the joint staff planning forces.

They don't view themselves as political, but they have lived for this in a lot of ways.

So when the president is like, I need all options on the table.

They're like, oh, they're working on this for 40 years.

Let me start pulling stuff off the shelf.

80 second airborne marine expeditionary force.

And once that stuff starts to get into the system, the machinery, think about how hard it is to roll it back.

Because now they're like, well, we've got to finish the job.

It's a military objective.

Nobody ever sets back.

This is the job of the president and his advisors to be like, is any of this a good idea?

Should we be doing this at all?

And that machine, as we see, the carriers still on their way.

The marine expeditionary forces converging.

80 second airborne planes that are all coming over.

Once that stuff starts, it's very hard not to use it.

Because now it's in theater.

Might as well be an option.

You take, like I talked about, Kennedy yesterday, a supreme act of courage.

And genuine intelligence said, no, we're not doing any of this.

This is madness.

We don't see right now in the situation room.

So if you take that rhetoric and you take this stuff that's all on its way, what other conclusion can you draw?

Same with the Iranians.

They're too, they're so confident right now.

It's scary.

I mean, I think, you know, don't take my words for it.

Take treat us like he is genuinely worried.

They're going to overplay their hands.

And it will lead to their total and complete annihilation to their detriment and to ours.

It'll be bad for everybody who's involved.

I mean, he just, in all his comments and in his decision making,

he really has this, like, child-like understanding of the world.

You know, they leaked to Politico.

I guess even Barack Reveed wasn't buying this bullshit.

That the Gali Baf, the guy who, you know, we put up his, his tweet earlier

and that Trump was sort of alluding, like, oh, we've got a top guy that we're talking to.

And of course, they're completely denying it.

Anyway, somebody leaked to Politico, like, oh, he's a hot option right now.

It's like, this is not Venezuela.

Number one, number two, you're just completely full of shit.

Number three, you think you're just going to, like, swap out some characters

in the entire country of Iran with some, like, 93 million people.

It's going to be yours.

I mean, it's so insane.

And this has been, apparently, the thinking from the beginning of Trump of, like, oh,

if we just murder the Ayatollah, then it'll all be ours.

And we can play him like puppets and do whatever we want.

The military knew that was not going to be the case,

but he didn't want to listen to them because he had his own idea about, like, well, it worked in Venezuela

and BB tells me it'll work here.

So we're just going to go for it.

I mean, it truly is such a, like, kindergarten level understanding of the world.

And that comes out to when he's like, oh, maybe me and the Ayatollah

are going to control the straight-of-war moves together.

The Iranians put out a meme, did you see this in response?

Sagar, that was like, you know, it was like a car where you have the normal steering wheel

and then you have the kid's steering wheel there that obviously doesn't do anything

where it's like, oh, he's pretending to drive the car.

I mean, just complete mockery of this man because the whole thing is so stupid and so insane.

But the bottom line is today, you know, Trump is actually not really in a position

to say when this war ends or how it ends.

That is on Iran and it's on Israel.

He has seated so much control to these Israelis that, you know,

if even if he wants to end the war today,

and I think it's possible he does want to end the war today,

the Iranians get to say, and these Israelis because of our weakness and our desire,

our decision to see so much of our foreign policy to them,

they get to say as well.

And that's why this thing is such an incredible, intractable mess heading towards question.

Yeah, and why we shouldn't have gotten into it in the first place.

It's exactly.

But at 5 up there on the screen, this was from the prime minister of Israel.

He says earlier today, I spoke with President Trump, believes there's an opportunity

to leverage the tremendous achievements to achieve, to realize the goals of the war

through an agreement that will safeguard our vital interests.

But he continues.

Just a few days ago, we eliminated two more nuclear scientists.

We are still active.

We will safeguard our vital interests under all circumstance.

At the same time, we are going to continue to strike in both Iran and Lebanon.

We are smashing the missile program, the nuclear program.

We continue to deal severe blows with Hezbollah.

As we'll show you all later, the strikes continue on a bash and completely.

So, as of thing, where things stand right now, the negotiations don't appear to be going

anywhere.

And if they do meet, the two sides are very, very far apart.

I find it incredibly hard to believe that the vice president would be in Islamabad sometime

this week.

Also, on the steve week of front, well, what do the Iranians say?

Why would we trust you?

We met you with you twice.

We got bombed both.

I do not trust you.

Period.

And as Jeremy and Ryan, remember when Wiccoff and all of them were trying to convey the message

that their messages were being sent?

Yeah.

Just because they're being sent doesn't mean that they're being replied to.

Yeah.

They've never released any evidence that the Iranians actually responded to anything.

If anything, this story is confirmation that the Iranians will not talk to the U.S.

because the Turks and the Egyptians and everybody else is starting to get involved.

And I want to put this up here at the top.

We're on the brink of actual regional conflict.

So, for example, the Saudis are leaking now to the Wall Street Journal.

They said, one more strike on the critical infrastructure or water, we're getting in the war.

We're going to start striking.

The Gulf Arabs have all been leaking to all of these different outlets saying that they now agree with the idea of regime change

because their fundamental security is threatened.

Which means everybody's incentives is for longer, more protracted war.

Do you want to go to war?

Do you want to send Americans a die for the Dubai real estate market?

For only fans' girls to be able to live comfortable lives and high rises in Dubai or fitness influencers

or too much losers to make it in the United States to make it over there?

I'm good, actually.

All right. And that's what they want for us.

Or the Daraan compound? No.

Okay. We're good.

But that's where the incentive structure is for every single person including the Iranians,

which is why honestly, I just think this is genuine nightmare.

Yeah.

At this point, they almost have to get some time.

I know.

That's one of the things.

They're screwed.

Yeah.

Already their brand, Dubai's brand, Abu Dhabi's brand is like, you know, the playgrounds for the rich and, you know, almost like a little car bounce

and the rest of the tunnels of the region.

That's dead.

It's over.

We've all seen the videos of like your airport on fire and, you know, bombs landing are drones hitting luxury high-rise buildings.

Who of our global elite is going to choose Dubai as their location now?

And that's their whole thing.

Like that is really where they've staked their claim.

So unless they can, you know, completely overturn the government in Iran and have some, I don't know, recipes or some other puppet government

that they feel totally comfortable with, it's not coming back.

So, and again, this is, you know, part of Israel's goal in all of this is they, you know, they knew this idea.

It'll be a four-day war and it'll be, or they knew that was nonsense that they were selling to Trump, right?

And he was dumb enough to buy it.

And, you know, foolish and arrogant and vain enough to surround himself with people who wouldn't tell him the hard truth

and to shut on anyone who might have told him the hard truth as evidenced by, you know, Joe Kent being completely shut out of any of the conversations

and the debates leading up to this war.

So, you know, so now you've got this intractable conflict that just continues to grow.

And Israel's happy to have all of these countries in.

That is exactly what they want. That's why it, you know, appears that they may have been involved in some false flag attacks

to make those Gulf Arab states feel even more under threat.

But I mean, make no doubt about it. Iran is striking within those countries as well because they're like, look, you're complicit.

You're hosting these bases. Attacks are being launched from your soil towards us. So, sorry, fair game.

That's, you know, that's where we are. It really is every week that goes by

inching more in war towards total and complete war. And this is also the Pandora's box that's been opened by Gaza

and the, you know, the barbarism that just is accepted now.

Yeah, it's so bad. Let's get to the inside of trading.

It's the new me and it's the old them.

Everybody's on edge. And the old Jenny's different to this.

This woman's history month, the podcast, if you knew better with Amber Grimes, spotlights women who turn missteps into momentum

and lessons into power.

When coming out of where I came from, I'm from the Bronx, I think I grew up really poor.

I didn't know that then because I very much used my creativity to romanticize life.

And I'm like, my mom did a really good job of like you step back and you're like, whoa, we, I don't know how we made it.

So a lot of my life was like built out of like survival to get to the next place.

Like my drive, my like tunnel vision of like, I gotta be better.

Achieve this was off the strings of like, I want to make a better life for us.

If you knew better, brings real talk from women who've lived it, unpacking career pivots, relationship lessons,

and the mindset shifts that changed everything.

Listen to if you knew better with Amber Grimes on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

Hey, ambitious, well-intentioned, barotias and wealthy mother looks like in the black community.

This woman's history month, the podcast key deposit sweetie celebrates the power of women choosing healing,

purpose and faith, even when life gets messy.

Love is not a destination. You have to work on it every day.

Keep it positive, sweetie creates space for honest conversations on self-worth, love, growth, and navigating life with grace and grade,

led by women who have lived, inspired, and tell the truth out loud.

I have several conversations with God and I know why it took 20 years.

To hear this in more, listen to keep it positive, sweetie on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

Hi, I'm Bob Pittman, Chairman and CEO of I Heart Media, and I'm kicking off a brand new season of my podcast,

Math and Magic, Stories from the Frontiers of Marketing.

Math and Magic takes you behind the scenes of the biggest businesses and industries while sharing insights from the smartest minds in market.

I'm talking to leaders from the entertainment industry to finance and everywhere in between.

This season on Math and Magic, I'm talking to CEO of Liquid Death Mike Sissario, financier and public health advocate Mike Milken,

take two interactive CEO Strauss Selnik.

If you're unable to take meaningful creative risks and therefore run the risk of making horrible creative mistakes, then you can't play in this business.

Sesame Street CEO Sherry Weston, and her own cheap business officer, Lisa Coffee.

Making consumers see the value of the human voice and to how that guaranteed human promise behind it really makes it rise to the top.

Listen to Math and Magic, Stories from the Frontiers of Marketing on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

Turning now to insider trading, a very important story that we absolutely cannot just let slide.

So we recall yesterday we talked a lot about Trump market manipulation.

It turns out that market manipulation definitely worked out for several people, but we don't know any of their names.

Let's start with the first one.

Let's put it up here on the screen.

Here we have from the Financial Times.

Traders placed 580 million in oil bets ahead of Donald Trump's social media post on Iran talks.

Is that normal?

No, apparently it's not.

15 minutes before the Trump post, touting productive talks.

6200 Brent and West Texas intermediate futures contracts change hands between 6.49 a.m. and 6.50 a.m. New York time on Monday.

A quarter of an hour ahead of the president's post.

580 million dollars was a notional volume.

Trading volumes left at the exact same time 27 seconds before 6.50 a.m.

Futures tracking the S&P 500 jumped in price moments after the oil trade volumes rising significantly during that timeframe.

Trump's announcement at 704 triggered a sharp sell-off across the global energy markets and jumps in the S&P 500 stock index and European equities as investors dialed back bets on a prolonged conflict.

The well-tried trades echo the flurry of large, highly profitable bets made on polymarket for the timing of the U.S. attacks in recent months on Iran and Venezuela.

The White House has denied that they had anything to do with this.

The only focus of President Trump and Trump administration is doing what's best for the American people.

Well, it just turns out though that again, it's not just the financial time stock mother supported the next one, who CNBC confirming an extra with the first people to report this,

that the volume in the stock and oil features surge right before the minutes of Trump's market turning system.

Exactly at that 6.55 a.m. S&P 500 e-minifutures should record a sharp and isolated jump in volume.

So we don't know the exact profit that these people have made. Some say it could be well over north of a billion dollars for what the eventual bet turned out.

Of course, the SEC has not responded for comment about whether it will be initiating an investigation, the CFTC.

So these are the macro bets, but there were hundreds of other bets made in polymarket, like in other prediction markets, which were able to trace, which show some level of insider knowledge,

traders at the individual level booking a million dollars or so, and these people booking billions potentially.

And who know, this is only what we know here in our equity markets.

Around the world, we have no idea what those countries might be looking into.

This is just like the blatant, obvious stuff, too.

These are the people who just did it, obviously, who knows what long-term contracts and other people that have out there.

And you know, we can't let this go because I think that this demonstrates a couple of things.

This is an undemocratic war. The Congress did not vote for it. The people do not support it.

It continues to be advanced on behalf of Israel and then some people here in the United States government.

And at the very same time, that they are explicitly timing many of their war decisions.

Can you imagine trying to schedule D-Day around when the S&P 500 opened?

What do we do? You know, and that's the point, is that this is not a war that we're all bought into.

It's a war which is being waged, honestly, directly against the interests of Americans.

All my way here to work, every billboard, what am I looking at? 399 a gallon, 399 a gallon, 394 a gallon, 401 a gallon.

I mean, this stuff, it's brutal for everybody who is living this. At the diesel level, what is it now?

550, something like that. You've got people all over the country who are getting broken in a single month.

We were just looking this morning. 401k withdrawals are at an all-time high. It's just that.

Mortgage rates at 7. Mortgage rates at, I mean, it's like at every level across the book, your pocketbook, things are being hurt by this war.

On top of our strategic position, everything else, and not, you know, that doesn't even bring in the lives of American servicemen.

Yes. 13 already. We've been killed. It's a nightmare. And these people are getting filled here.

And then, Chad, insult to injury. You've got insiders who are making bank.

And this is just routine at this point. How many times has Trump come out with some market moving truth social that minutes before it comes out,

someone's trading, you know, making big and unusual bets, either on polymarket or on the stock market that just happened to pan out,

happened to come just before he makes the announcement. I mean, you'd be a fool not to see it at this point.

It's utterly disgusting. This stock market is so beyond fake. It's just like a playground for insiders to siphon off even more wealth for themselves at the expense of literally everyone else.

I mean, to your points, I'm just looking at the national average. Now today, the national average for a tank of gas, regular and let it 398.

And for diesel, we're looking at 535. And, you know, as much as you directly feel that regular and let it at the gas pump, that diesel is the part that really trigger.

It goes around the entire economy and very quickly because obviously that's what all the that's what all the truckers are having to pay.

And that's going to get passed on. They're going to get squeezed and then you're going to get squeezed.

So it's disgusting. And let me add this, the US SEC's ex-enforcement chief clashed with bosses over Trump cases before leaving a courting source sources.

This is from writers. So I saw someone flag on Twitter that this enforcement chief over at the SEC had just resigned earlier this month right before, you know, this level of insider trading is clearly happening in conjunction with the war.

And so Reuters was able to get the scoop about what was actually going on here and lo and behold, it was over a lack of enforcement, especially with cases that have ties to Trump and the Trump family.

So Reuters reports the US SEC's top enforcement official who left abruptly last week had clashed with agency leaders over the direction of its enforcement program, including the handling of cases with ties to Trump and his family, according to three people familiar.

SEC enforcement division director Margaret Ryan resigned last Monday after just over six months on the job Reuters was first to report her resignation email seen by Reuters to not say why she was leaving and she declined to comment.

Two of the people said Ryan wanted to be more aggressive in pursuing charges for fraud and other misconduct, including in cases that touched the president's circle, but face resistance from SEC chair Paul Atkins and other top Republican political appointees.

Of course, they deny it. One case they say that sparked tension in particular involve cryptocurrency entrepreneur Justin Sun, a major backer of Trump's families world liberty financial venture that's their crypto grift.

Another involved Tesla boss Elon Musk, big donor, of course, the Trump campaign, who briefly served as a president special advisor. So there you go, top enforcement official wanted to actually attempt to do some portion of her job.

The head of the SEC was like, no, we're not doing that at least certainly not where the Trump family or Trump donors are concerned. And she said, okay, I'm out of here.

I mean, this is the state of the country right now. This is the state or the lack of enforcement where white collar crime, especially if you are a Trump donor or Trump family member or Trump associate is just legal.

It's just legal now. And then they want to tell you all about oh my god, the Smolley and fraud blah blah blah. The biggest fraudsters are in the White House. There's zero doubt about it, especially on a dollar for dollar.

It would be a lot easier to talk about Smolley and fraud if you weren't pardoning fraudsters at the very same and or protecting them and personally committing fraud at the same time.

Who knows? Yeah, exactly. That's the problem. Also, yeah, I just want to say that you guys know SEC records that can go have a look back period, right?

One day somebody's actually going to look in this and I hope somebody goes to jail. I really do. Let's go for B3, put this up here on the screen, the current market reaction for what we are what we are seeing as of right now.

What it currently looks like is that some of the S&P, again, remember we talk about this stuff early in the morning, S&P 500 futures are pulling back after Mondays rally as oil prices are rebounding.

The Iran conflict continues. If I look again, just right now, the Brent futures hovering right around $100 per barrel. I think West Texas is roughly around 90.

So it's going to be a little bit more manageable and you will likely see a pullback in gas price in midweek and potentially on Sunday.

But of course, if there is some actual well, apparently the way this but I'm not talking about like forever like for a couple of days. That's apparently the way that works.

Again, not fully an oil genius or anything myself, but I'm trying to do some reading. Let's put B4 up there on the screen. This is from Chevron.

And these are the stuff. This is the stuff where people should really freak out.

Because when the Chevron CEO says Iran war impact not fully priced in and that traders have scanned information, you should think, hey, doesn't he have more information because he runs one of the world's largest energy companies.

The CEO cautioned it will take time to restart production that has been dialed back and to repair damaged facilities. Let me just read you directly what he said.

There are very real physical manifestations of the closure of the streets of our moves that are working with their way around the world through the system that I do not think are fully priced into the futures curve on oil.

What he talks about specifically is that the market is trading on scant information and perception. The physical supply of oil is tighter than the futures contracts suggest.

We've got a lot of oil and gas now that is not flowing into the market. There really is a difference in terms of physical supply versus prior incidents.

So he keeps saying and every oil analyst that we listen to is like the market futures are totally pricing in some sort of taco, some sort of event that if you look at the physical market doesn't add up.

I think a few, maybe last week, remember about California barrels trading for like $140.

We talked about how physical crude oil in Dubai or in UAE that was coming out was trading at like 160 and that's way out of step with where the current futures prices are.

And the reason for that is that's the physical oil that's actually there right now as opposed to what the future bet is on some sort of resumption of flow.

But all of the people who are actually in the know don't seem to think that that's going to happen. So for example, let's put United Airlines up here on the screen.

This is Scott Kirby, the CEO of United. He put out a memo. This was last week. We plan for oil to hit $175 a barrel and staying above 100 next year as the industry faces the worst shock since COVID.

Obviously that matters for jet fuel. And he by the way, when he says 175 barrel, he's not talking about jet fuel. He's talking about actual crude oil, which means jet fuel would be trading much higher than that.

I mean, 175 barrel. That's like $6 a gallon and staying at 100 over the next year. Even 100 is a lot. That's right now. So for the next year, we're all signing up for $4 a gallon.

I mean, come on. That's really tough. What I was looking at recently just this morning is that for every $10 increase in the price of oil for a barrel, it's roughly 0.3 to 0.4 in terms of its increase on inflation.

So I think we've already had orders of magnitude more than 10. So we can be had 5% inflation.

Yeah. Literally 1970s energy shock level stuff. Yeah. I mean, in terms of people are saying in terms of the like barrel production loss already, it's bigger than the 70s energy shocks.

But, you know, Rory Johnston, the analyst we've had on before, he made a good point. He's like, listen, so much of the world now can increasingly just be driven by overconfidently posting through it, but not oil at least not for long.

More moves flow still has not resumed every day. We're shedding more oil from the system. That'll catch up can't jawbone 10 to 15 million barrels per day stock draws. So he's making the point here like, yeah, a lot of our economy is fake and based on vibes like Tesla's valuation as one example.

But oil is an actual like thing that exists. It is a commodity. It is a physical good that exists and you can't just like post your way through it.

So that's exactly what Trump is trying to do at this point and having some success. I mean, I think the, you know, Chevron CEO was like, you know, they're really not pricing in just how much disruption. I think he is correct. I think Rory is correct and saying essentially the same thing.

This is going to hit at some point and is going to get worse. You can't just true social your way out of the problem that you have created.

I think about all the downstream effects. So oil is high, which means demand destruction, pullback, high inflation, high interest rates, stagflation. Once again, high unemployment rate, high mortgage rates.

I could go on for a long time, pullback and AI 10% correction in the stock market 15% correction for the tech industry mass layoffs across the US economy.

I'm just giving you the whole 1970s playbook. And remember, the only way they solved it was 19% interest rates, which I mean that scarred a generation forever in terms of how they think about finances and, I mean, banks, like literally the federal reserve, it changed the entire outlook for an entire people.

A student debt would climb debt servicing education. I mean, the downstream fertilizer, I'm going to talk about fertilizer, helium, semi conductors, the global supply chain, potential famine, food crisis in the third world Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, already having gas shortages because they all have cooking gas. I mean, you know, this and so like over here, our problems are just going to be economic in the rest of the world. Like we're talking about life and death.

Yeah.

And if this extends, remember during COVID with Biden, we would often talk about like there's a significant portion of the country. I think in the Northeast or like a way up north where they still use like heating oil or gas.

That spike like destroyed their heating bills and pocketbooks for a long time. So I mean, I don't want to scare people. I'm just pointing out like why it's so imperative to pull the war back as soon as possible.

If these people are too believed, it doesn't even look like that's even possible. And then we're going to be in some $4 a gallon. Like it seems like the base case is $4 a gallon now for over a year, which is, I mean, really just devastating.

Well, luckily, the economy was really really great before this. So people, I'm sure have a lot of cushion. They're feeling very confident. They'll be able to weather the storm. Right. Very true. All right. Let's move on.

It's the new me and it's the old them. Everybody's on edge and the old Jenny's different to this. This woman's history month, the podcast, if you knew better with Amber Grimes, spotlights women who turned missteps into momentum and lessons into power.

I think coming out of where I came from, I'm from the Bronx. I think I grew up really poor. I didn't know that then because I very much used my creativity to romanticize life. And I'm like, my mom did a really good job of like you step back and you're like, whoa, we, I don't know how we made it.

So a lot of my life was like built out of like survival to get to the next place. Like my drive, my like tunnel vision of like, I got to be better. I got to achieve this was off the strings of like, I want to make a better life for us.

If you knew better brings real talk from women who've lived it, unpacking career pivots, relationship lessons and the mindset shifts that changed everything.

Listen to if you knew better with Amber Grimes on the I Heart Radio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast.

Hi, I'm Bob Pittman, Chairman and CEO of I Heart Media. And I'm kicking off a brand new season of my podcast, Math and Magic Stories from the Frontiers of Marketing.

Math and Magic takes you behind the scenes of the biggest businesses and industries while sharing insights from the smartest minds in marketing.

I'm talking to leaders from the entertainment industry to finance and everywhere in between.

This season of Math and Magic, I'm talking to CEO of liquid death Mike Cesareo, financier and public health advocate Mike Milken.

Take two interactive CEO Strauss Selnik.

If you're unable to take meaningful creative risk and therefore run the risk of making horrible creative mistakes, then you can't play in this business.

Sesame Street CEO Sherry Weston and her own cheap business officer Lisa coffee.

Making consumers see the value of the human voice and to how that guaranteed human promise behind it really makes it rise to the top.

Listen to Math and Magic Stories from the Frontiers of Marketing on the I Heart Radio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast.

Hey, ambitious, well-intentioned, barotish and wealthy mother looks like in the black community.

This woman's history month, the podcast Keebe Paz's sweetie celebrates the power of women choosing healing, purpose and faith, even when life gets messy.

Love is not a destination. You have to work on it every day.

Keebe Paz's sweetie creates space for honest conversations on self-worth, love, growth, and navigating life with grace and grade led by women who have lived, inspired and held the truth out loud.

I have several conversations with God and I know why it took 20 years to hear these in more.

Listen to Keebe Paz's sweetie on the I Heart Radio app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast.

Joining us now is Brandon Wiker, great friend of the show and an excellent military analyst. Good to see you sir.

Thanks for having me as always.

Alright Brandon, let's jump right into it. All of us have been on Ground Troop deployment watch.

Let's go ahead and put this one up here on the screen, New York Times saying that the Pentagon is now weighing the deployment of airborne troops for the Iran War.

They spoke specifically on the 82nd airborne whose training exercise had previously been canceled.

Maybe you could break down for us some of the military speak here.

It's currently be about a brigade of 3000 soldiers capable of deploying anywhere in the world for 18 hours.

What would that type of operation look like? What should we look for? Are there movements that are already on the way? What's going on?

Well clearly this is if you contextualize this with the Marine, the Marine Expeditionary Unit, I believe two are being deployed or have been deployed to the region.

This to me looks like the administration's thinking is well we're going to have a small light and fast force that will break into one of the targets along the coastline.

And they will basically overrun whatever defenses are there capture the land and then be able to sort of establish a foothold there and then they can flow in heavier forces.

I don't think this would be a, I might be wrong about this, but I don't believe this is a prelude to invasion of the heart of Iran.

I think this is an attempt to establish what's known as sea control.

Basically they're going to take one of these islands along the coast and then they think they'll be able to capture it and then build up missile presence there and they'll be able to basically

be in, interdict any kind of Iranian attempts to intervene with the natural flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or into the Strait of Hormuz.

And I just got to tell you, Saga, this, this whole thing is, is kooky talk. This is crazy town level stuff because 82nd airborne is wonderful.

And I've, I've talked to those guys before, but this is not going to work the way they think it is nor will it work for the Marines 2500 or 5000 whatever number they're throwing around now.

It's sort of been changing off and on.

This is not going to work. You, you need to, you know, the Klaus Witsy and model, you need to mass a lot of force to just to take one of those islands.

And oh, by the way, our Marines are 82nd airborne guys as the Russians learned in the first few days of their war in Ukraine.

They're not going to be facing, it's not going to be man on man. It's not even going to be tank on man.

It's going to be man arrives on island finds it kind of deserted. It's quiet. Oh, it's kind of nice. But oh, guess what? There's 88,000 shot had drones coming your way in waves and then the missiles and then the hypersonics.

This is not going to end well. This is going to be deliberately from World War one and it will end in us retreating in, you know, humiliation.

And I think that's when we start talking about nuclear weapons.

Do you think there's a possibility what you said is horrifying and terrifying and I acknowledge that.

Do you think it's a possibility there's a possibility we're being sort of siopped on this carg island idea? I'm just hearing too many leaks about it too much in the press about it.

It seems like we're signaling too hard that that's what we're intending to do.

Yeah, and actually there was a YouTube account. I think it was called history legends, which is this Ukrainian military guy and he had a very interesting video a couple days ago breaking down.

The three possible locations. The one he thinks and this is what I was thinking because it was one of our first targets we blew up in the air war.

Is this naval base? The Iranians have it's sort of in the Gulf of Oman or off that coastline.

So it's technically closer to where our Navy is willing to go and let's just think about this.

Pollyanna Pete Hegseth keeps telling us we're winning this thing so bigly it hurts.

Well, we can't even get the Navy within a thousand kilometers of the Strait of Hormuz, but somehow we're going to land Marines inside.

I don't think so. There is a possibility or probability that the real target is something like I think it's the Conorad naval base, which is along that coastline of Oman.

But and that's near Baluchistan and the argument is the CIA's been implanted into Baluchistan, which is a breakaway area of Iran and and where we have friendlies on the ground and the friendlies will come in from the back door of the of the naval base in Iran and then will come in through the front door.

It'll be happy. Happy times are here again. I don't think again. This is how it's going to work out and even if we did take that territory by the way, it's not not really near where we need to be.

I mean, the Strait of Hormuz is the problem, not the Gulf of Oman, not yet. So, you know, this is all for show. This is again, this is irresponsible and crazy talk from the administration, which we've become accustomed to now on this issue.

Let's put C2 up there on the screen. These really compiling some of the plans that we see right now, 2500 Marines, 2000 sailors, three amphibious ships, 3000 paratroopers.

I want to throw another one at you, which we've talked a little bit about before. Let's say Trump needs a spectacular offering.

What about the nuclear mission? The Israeli's just bomb the nuclear facility airborne troops can drop right in.

Some theory that I have seen now currently is you send airborne in, then you send in the one wave of Marines and you have another wave of Marines that could come in.

Everybody's recycling in and out of the country. Obviously, though, that would be deep inside. How would something like that play out?

Would it give the president the off ramp that he wants?

I don't think any of this is an off ramp. I don't know. This is literally escalation. Now, maybe in Trump's mind, you know, this is what we do.

Estulate to deescalate, right, Brandon? Scott Besson told me.

That's what Scott Besson. Yes, the military genius known as Scott Besson.

You know, maybe in Trump's mind, that's how it works. But, you know, remember, the Russians have had a escalate to deescalate doctrine for 15, 10 years now.

And it hasn't worked for them. I mean, they're still in Ukraine. So, you know, they're kind of winning in Ukraine.

But the point is it hasn't worked anywhere. It's tried. When you escalate and you're up against arrival, like the Persians or the Iranians, they escalate along with you.

In fact, they've demonstrated, I think I said this before, they demonstrated a remarkable capacity so far.

We go up one escalation run. There they are waiting for us. They just go right with us.

This is a very wily group of adversaries were up against. We've completely misread and underestimated them. So perhaps that's what the president is envisioning.

It's not going to go that way. And by the way, how is all those free flowing forces going to put up with contested airspace where air defense systems are still active.

They've already hit at F 35. They've already targeted, you know, these KC 135. So how are we going to do this without losing a bunch of guys needlessly.

And of course, the political ramifications, you know, Trump is obsessed with having the markets look good. So he has good, good polling or whatever.

I don't know how losing a bunch of troops in the heart of Iran to try to take over some nuclear facility or whatever. I mean, this just sounds really.

This sounds like something from a Tom Clancy novel and not something from like real war.

But it might happen. The thing is, like, he's actually might happen. Like for real.

Yes, that one would be very difficult, though, because he's going to have to penetrate deep. Hold.

I mean, he might try it, but that thing could really go pear shaped fast.

Wow. So one of our aircraft carriers in the region had to limp back to shore after an alleged laundry fire.

What impact does that have on our abilities in the region? You know, I believe there's just one aircraft carrier in the area. Now, you know, how much does that matter?

Well, I believe the second aircraft has come, I guess the third was the was at the George H. W. Bush left Virginia. So it's in root.

Ultimately, look, I've been a critic of the aircraft carrier for over a decade. I think it is, it is an obsolete weapon.

I think that it is a sitting duck as we're seeing these missiles are targeting whether they hit the Gerald R Ford or not is the question.

I know that the Houthis came very close to hitting a couple of those carriers year to ago. And that's why we abandoned the fight with the Houthis.

The Ford, they're claiming it was a laundry fire. I am not convinced. I personally have no evidence of this as speculation, but I do think that was probably probably clipped by one of those Iranian ASBMs.

That's an anti-ship ballistic missile. And, you know, they probably are retreating back to Virginia now to get repair and rest of the problem is we have one shipyard in the entire United States that can handle the kind of overhaul necessary for these carriers.

It's backlogged. They're saying it'll be 14 months before the Ford is is back in action. I would anticipate 24 to 28 months.

You have to double that almost because the shipyards are so sclerotic here and they're already at, you know, at capacity.

So this is a big problem. This is a loss of capabilities. It's a tool out of our toolbox. And we only have, I think, right now three operational out of 11 carriers.

So, you know, this is this is a nightmare scenario at the strategic level again because as this is happening in the Middle East, the Chinese are not just, you know, leave it alone. You're seeing Russia and your Ukraine again starting at it.

So our, you know, our rivals are constantly figuring out how to use this to their advantage. And Uncle Sam is declining significantly, unfortunately.

Brandon, let's talk about the combat effectiveness of the Iranian missiles now so far. So we day after day, every time I wake up, I see a new hit inside of Israel that I didn't see two weeks ago.

We saw Dimona, the nuclear facility area got hit. We saw us. It was a rod. I think that's the name where southern Israel mass casualty this morning, Tel Aviv, robber everywhere. It looks like the blitz in the middle of London. This seems like a daily occurrence now. What does that tell us?

Well, it tells us that I just saw before I logged on Daily Mail has an op-ed. They're saying the Iranians only have a thousand missiles left. And I'm reminded of, you know, the articles coming out of Ukraine in the beginning when, you know, the Russians are two weeks away from running out of missiles. They're using laundry machine.

You know, this is not, this is not realistic. I think a safer assessment is that the Iranians have probably an additional 18 to 24 months left of their missiles stockpiles.

We're not even talking about the drones. The drones are the real problem. The drones are actually what they're threatening to hit ships passing through the street of Hormuz with. They're not threatening to hit them with missiles necessarily. It's the drones. It's the Shah heads.

So we're not even addressing the more than 88,000 drones that they have in their arsenal, which haven't even been close to used. So in my opinion, these missile strikes are clearly demonstrating escalation dominance on the part of the Iranians.

They clearly have a robust arsenal. Remember, up until a week ago, they're using missiles that were 10 and 15 years old. These were the missiles from 10 years ago.

Now they've started upgrading and they've switched music munitions to the more advanced stuff. And they're talking about the Koram Shah and some of these other very sophisticated, very lethal missiles.

So if you're sitting around listening to the White House and the Pentagon telling you, oh, this war's coming to a close soon.

I think the Iranians, unfortunately, have another, have another message for you, which is we've got plenty and we're going to keep coming up the escalation ladder with you.

So straight of form is obviously has become a central question in this war, central objective in this war, even though we just said and started the war, everything would have been fine there.

But in any case, that, you know, they've abandoned it.

Well, it's not a war. It's a non-war war.

Right. It's an excursion or whatever the term of art is now. In any case, we've abandoned and there was a Washington Post report about this.

We've abandoned the idea of completely destroying their ability to produce nuclear weapons. We've abandoned the idea of regime change.

So now we're just trying to basically, like, undo some damage that was done. Trump, we played the Serol in the show was like, maybe me and the Ayatollah are going to control the straight of our moves together.

Okay. What would it actually take, though, to, you know, forcibly take control of the straight of our moves and make it safe enough that shifts feel they can navigate that without getting, you know, clip by a drone or whatever.

It's going to require a force substantially larger than what we've deployed. And it's going to take a political willingness, and I'm not advocating for this at all, a political willingness to see very large numbers of casualties.

And oh, by the way, the loss of some of these very expensive platforms, not just carriers, but destroyers as well.

Remember, there was a business insider interview with a captain of a destroyer during the Houthi fight where he said that never in his career and not since World War II, the Pacific theater had the US Navy encountered an enemy as serious as I'm paraphrasing as the Houthis were.

And of course, we abandoned that fight. Remember, that was the big signal gate. That was part of that whole discussion with Jeffrey Goldberg.

We abandoned that fight because it was too much. And now we're talking about going up against, you know, sort of the mothership of terrorism in the region, and they're like a missile city.

And we're going to somehow, you know, we're going to with with two carriers and a handful of destroyers that won't get anywhere near under current conditions, the straight of our moves.

Suddenly, they're going to punch through land Marines, take out all, I mean, this is this is the stuff of science fiction fantasy.

So it's yeah. Well, I would respectfully suggest that Israel is the mothership of terrorism in the region. Well, sure. Yeah. Yeah.

I get your point. I know what you're doing. I know what you're saying. See the brand. This is the difficulty of this is that every day we hear 95% capacity has been wiped out 95% and the Israelis.

I think twice now have claimed the 300 missiles have been destroyed. And it's like, well, I don't know if that's even the math.

This is math, as they say. Yeah, it doesn't really work. But the thing is, is that with their drone production, with their oil enrichment right now, the Iranians are in a in a better position, much more than they expected.

Right. Initially, at this point though, how can the United States and, you know, your political as well, what possible outcome could we see that actually leads to this ending from Donald Trump?

I think it would take a sea change of mindset to say, okay, done. Let's sign a fake deal, declare victory and get out. But I just don't see. Yeah. And I wonder if that's the Trump of the first first year or two of the presidency in 2016.

That's not the Trump of COVID. That's not the Trump of of now. We're getting the Trump of COVID. Okay. This was he was committed to lockdowns. He was committed to all that. So this is the worst patterns of Trump coming out in my opinion.

You know, here and now there's nukes involved. So there's no off ramp. You know, he's whenever he says something about, oh, yeah, I've got what we're talking to people.

I think he's talking to himself. I think he's talking to Netanyahu. And, you know, I think that they're conspiring to try to keep the markets calm.

Long enough for them to get those Marines in place. And then they're going to do Gallipoli 2.0. And it's going to end in disaster. There's whole things ending in disaster.

So there is no off ramp. You're going to get a bunch of our people killed. And then it's probably going to lead in my opinion to Israel, then saying, oh, we got to drop a nuke now because Netanyahu, Netanyahu is deeply committed and his people, the Likud party, they're deeply committed to this course of action utter annihilation of Iran, no matter what.

So, you know, this is where it's headed, I think, in the coming weeks. Yeah, Brandon, I think an off ramp requires Trump's removal from office at this point because if you're the Iranians, why would you ever deal with this? Why would you ever negotiate the administration?

Yeah, they have already said that. And I believe them because multiple times and not just with regard to, you know, the build up to the 12-day war, but in other instances as well, we've used diplomacy as a force.

Yes. They see what's going on here with Trump in just now inventing fake diplomacy. And once again, trying to use it as a ruse for whatever his next escalatory plan is. So you have that. And then you also look at this man who is clearly a menace to the country in the world at this point.

So, I mean, is there an off ramp as long as Donald Trump remains president of the United States?

I would have thought the institutions would have snapped back into place. And unfortunately, not even people like General Kane ultimately stood up to him and said, this is not going to work. Now, the Navy, it's interesting. The Navy, you know, he's been telling them to go through the straight.

And the generals keep saying we're not doing it. So that's interesting that that's sort of not happened yet. Thank God. But in terms of 25th Amendment, it requires a vice president who's willing to stand up to Trump.

And I don't think Mr. Vance for a variety of reasons is willing to do that. He was down in Austin recently with Lon's Dale and Palantir guys.

And I think the fact of the matter is you know that there's not going to be any movement toward actually reasserting some kind of constitutional control here because you had was some and some of these top Vance advisors are leaving on moss.

And they're going to be putting in. I was told to expect in the coming weeks, multiple people close to Vance who were foreign policy non interventionists are going to be leaving for the private sector. So I don't think there's any off ramp there either.

I think that when November hits the likelihood is Democrats win and messy and kind of do an impeachment, you know, a scheme together, that's going to be the hope, I think, for the left.

But I don't think the Republicans are going to let it happen either. The Republicans are going to be rallying to their guy who's clearly way off on this one and going to get a lot of people.

I mean, he's Trump is going to get a lot of people killed and he's going to get a lot of people at home hurt with this economic stuff. This is a disaster.

Well, Brandon, last thing, why are you so confident about the use of nuclear weapon? You're one of the only people I know who is like, it's going to, we're not going to happen, but it's what you, I meant like 5% you're like 50. Why are you so confident?

Well, because I think that the wants the land attack, it's so bad in Israel right now. And basically Netanyahu is completely locked in. This is all or nothing for Netanyahu.

So he it's 1945 Berlin. He's trying to move troops around on that only only exists on a map. So like this guy's not he's not operating in the same reality that we are.

And so I think what happens is the he they're banking on one last Hail Mary being the US marine landings. That's not going to work under current conditions.

At that point, Trump's going to probably get cold feet and try to figure out a way to get out of this because he's going to realize this thing is a disaster.

And then at that point Netanyahu is going to say, I'm going this is it. The Americans are getting cold feet. They can't do it. I got to do it. I'm going to the only thing I've got are nukes and when all you have is a hammer, everything's a nail.

And that's why I think this is and I don't see any off ramp. I just don't even have Trump were to taco out today. It's like the Israelis don't have to and the Iranians don't have to.

Like you have to have you know engagement from the other two parties. And so far the Iranians are very confident that they've got what they need and the Israelis are very very worried.

And so they're going to keep doubling down to try to get out of this mess they've created. So that's where we are. And Trump's sort of a passive observer in this whole thing, which is really shocking to see an American president in that position.

Extraordinary stuff. Brandon's always great to speak with you. We really appreciate it. Good to see you. Thank you.

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