4 Questions That Will Make Or Break the 2026 Fantasy Football Season

USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day, like superheroes and side chicks or auto and

home insurance.

With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10 percent, tap the banner

to learn more and get a quote at USAA.com slash bundle, restriction supply.

Edible Arrangeous Effort List Joy-All-Year With same day in next day delivery or local

pickup, Edible makes gifting simple, fresh arrangements, dessert boards, and big treats

for birthdays, thank yous, or just because.

Order at edible.com or your local store.

Welcome to the roto wire fantasy football podcast sponsored by Draft King's Bestball.

I'm Jim Covertree.

I got a special guest today, J.J. Zachary is in, you know, from at late round quarterback,

you know him from everywhere, end of the show.

You are not going to want to miss this.

J.J. is going to tell you about his rookie guide.

I've read it.

J.J., as you know, knows his stuff.

It's worth reading.

You're going to find out how to get that later.

J.J., if you're going to hype that later, but right now, how busy have you been with

draft season?

Yeah.

I mean, look, it's always a busy time.

It's always a fun time.

But then after that guide gets published, I have this like month and a half period of this

is kind of one of the slower times, you know, in our calendar, right?

Where free agency ends and we're just kind of waiting for the draft to happen.

So I'm in this period now.

I got to take a vacation in a week and a half, about a week, you know, go away for spring

break with the, with the fam.

So it's a good time of year for me now that that guide is done and out there.

Absolutely correct.

And spring break is a big deal.

Always take time to enjoy the family.

Everybody today on this show, J.J. and myself, we're talking about the four NFL teams that

could be set the surprise for fantasy football in 2026.

And without waiting any longer, we are going to start with a question.

Are the ageing 49ers a good bet for 2026 fantasy?

I'm going to let's tee you up here, J.J.

No problem.

Brock Birdie is young.

Not an issue there.

Christian to Cafery, 30 years old now, heavy, heavy workload last year.

Mike Evans comes on the scene, 33 years old.

And I always talk about age and injuries, missed 12 games in the last two years.

He only missed eight games in his first 10 years.

Ricky piercels in the house.

He missed eight games last year.

We don't talk about his rookie year because the poor man was shot and that's not his fault.

And Christian Kirk comes over, missed 18 games in three years.

And then George Kittle tore his Achilles in January.

He'll be 33, one cherry on top, left tackle Trent Williams.

He'll be 38.

J.J.

Initial thoughts before the draft.

There's not going to be much at free ageing.

Really J.J.

Jennings comes back because nobody wants them.

But what are your initial thoughts on whether we're buying or selling this old 49er skill

position roster in injured group?

Yeah.

And look, you didn't even mention the electrical substation through all that, right?

That they're practicing next to.

No, I mean, look, it's an interesting situation.

You have no J.J.

Jennings.

Kendrick Bourne's gone too.

Obviously, I.

Euk wasn't there for most of last year.

And Pierce all, of course, he had the unfortunate situation as rookie season.

But he hasn't really been able to stay on the field much either.

And the irony here is that he was an older rookie.

He came out.

He was almost 24 years old whenever he was drafted.

So yeah, I mean, I look at this as, yes, we have to have caution.

We definitely have to weigh the cost benefit and think about the downside risk of injury

with all of these guys.

But I do think that if you remove the age or you remove the injury aspect, I can see the

vision for from a personnel perspective, right?

Like, I can, obviously, they have Christian McHaffrey in the backfield, but you bring in

Mike Evans.

I think that he fits like the I.U.K. role, if you will, where you can put him on the boundary

and he can run similar routes and do the similar things that I.U.K. would be hypothetically

be doing in that offense.

And the thing with Evans that I thought at least from last year, you know, if you look

at his like yards for our run numbers, it was the worst of his career.

But also Baker Mayfield was not good the second half of last year.

And I don't think anyone should argue that.

You know, if you look at catchable target rate of, you know, the, the, if you look at

the 126 qualified wide receivers, both a Mecca, Buka, and Mike Evans were outside the

top 100 in catchable target rate last year.

So it's one of those things where, yes, his yard for our run was weaker, but also the

quarterback play was a lot weaker for Evans.

And then, you know, the one thing that I will say favorably about Evans is that he was

still seeing similar target for our run numbers.

He was still targeted at a similar rate as we typically see from him.

And I, I kind of like the pairing of him with Brock Purdy, where a lot of people think

that Purdy can't push the ball down the field.

That's just not true.

I mean, he was first in NFL last year in completion percentage on 20 plus area yard throws.

You know, the last two seasons, he's been top 10 in completion percentage over expected.

Like whether you want to say it's Purdy or the system, that still exists, right?

Like that's still there.

So I think the way that I'm approaching this is, I'm going to be cautiously optimistic

because I think the pieces fit together well.

I think Mike Evans can fit in this role well.

I think Christian Kirk, as a pure slot at this point, his career is fine.

And Ricky Purysel can move inside out.

I think that's a fine trio.

But yeah, you have to be a little bit concerned because, you know, they're older and there's,

there's injury concerns.

And, and, you know, whether you believe in the, the tinfoil hat stuff or not,

there's also that, that substation.

Hey, a lot of people believe that they're going to enjoy that.

It's going to be the key point of this video is that the tin hat talk.

Let's go further on this.

I do want to just, um, laterally go, I know you mentioned Baker Mayfield.

And I just want to laterally point this out.

Maybe you commented on this as well.

I have noticed that Baker Mayfield's career, when he's healthy, he's been good.

Yeah.

It's one really bad year in Cleveland, both of his shoulders were jacked up.

Yeah.

Esther, shoulder, you know, it was a, a problem.

So when Baker Mayfield's healthy, he's good.

When he's limited, he is terrible.

So real quickly, I, I am ready because Baker's going to come cheaper this year.

And he's got, God, when we don't know at the age of how he's looking, but, you know,

he's got a Bucca and he's got Jalen McMillan.

He's got K dot and I probably am buying back in a Baker.

I know we're talking 49ers here.

Any quick word on Baker this year?

No, that's a great point.

Yeah, the, the, all of what I said was, was descriptive more than anything else.

You know, it's just, it's just, you know, speaking to the fact that objectively,

he was bad, you know, objectively, this is what we were seeing from him.

But I agree, you know, I think health in the injury.

I mean, you could argue similar things with even like a Bucca in that same,

offense last year where, you know, he, he hit that injury around that Detroit game.

And we didn't even think he was going to play in that game and then he was active.

And then Mike, Mike Evans enters his collar or hurts his collarbone.

And then all of a sudden, the Bucca is just thrown in there.

I don't think he was 100% through the second half of last year.

So I think all of that is definitely going to play into a more of a favorable

regression for the offense and the passing attack.

But yeah, I mean, like if you, the thing, you know, just to go back to it,

like the thing that I just pinpoint is general usage and intent of the offense.

And the intent of the offense was to still get Mike Evans involved, you know,

and that, that at least shows me that there's still something there for him.

Oh, and there was no argument with what you said.

I just was thinking about this year when you mentioned that in my, my thought on Baker,

just because you were right.

He was, once you're at the shoulder, he was awful.

Right. So back to the 49ers where we were focusing.

So here's where I'm going to counter a question with you because I, you know,

I know you know, football really well.

So I can have these deeper level discussions, I think.

So Brandon Ayuk, I thought the beauty of him was at the time when he was like a few

years ago and he had that huge air.

It was like him and Keenan Allen were getting open like the fastest in the NFL.

A nanosecond in Ayuk was open.

And I think that allowed a lot of things to happen with the offense.

Mike Evans isn't exactly that type of player.

And I think even though I you could run out routes and he would run down field routes,

but I really felt the best routes he ran were those slant routes to an over the line

backers. And that's what Shanahan specializes him.

He gets Kittle going over the linebackers and you're right about Purdy.

Purdy gets a very good downfield situation for himself.

And he's very good at identifying those throws.

And Shanahan is perfect at putting great weapons.

I wonder how Shanahan is going to be able to pull levers this year.

Joanne Jennings, if he's not back, the blocking that he offered, it was insane.

It really helped a lot of concepts.

Kittle, not knowing if he'd run or go out into a route and be weaponized.

I don't I would be stunned.

I think if he's back by midseason, right.

So and then Evans himself, JJ, I get terrified 33 years old.

I think about Julio Jones.

I think about Deandre Hopkins.

I think about how many receivers will keep Larry Fitzgerald out of this,

because he got moving to the slot and he ate till he was like 38 years old.

And Mike Evans, and you mentioned you were right about Baker,

but the injuries in the age become a problem with the whole weaponization of this

offense, Shanahan having pieces.

Are you at all concerned about how they work together?

Because A, how many are being healthy at the same time?

B, the skill sets have changed.

I can say Jennings for the blocking out, I you with the quick, quick separation out.

Do you think any impact comes from that?

What are your thoughts?

Yeah.

I mean, I think it's all valid, especially I you.

Like I don't want it to think I don't want anyone to walk away thinking that I believe

that that prime I you is where Mike Evans is at right now.

I do think that a lot of the perimeter routes are going to be able to be run by

Evans, but the big differentiator to be transparent would be that the Kyle

Shanahan offense has always been predicated on a lot of yak, right?

And and they've always gone after that, that archetype of player, right?

Whether it's I you, who was that kind of player?

Peer saw was that kind of player as well.

And their players who can do a lot after the catch Christian McCaffrey,

why they wanted him as a weapon because obviously in the in the passing game,

he can do those things George Kiddell is that way, right?

You just go down the line.

Mike Evans really isn't that and he's not he's not really been that throughout

his career.

He's been more that contested catch guy that's, you know, that translated.

And and so like I think that would be the part where I'm like kind of if he

with it, but I do think that Peer saw and Christian Kirk can still play that

role, you know, to to a degree.

Like that's what, you know, that short area stuff is where Christian Kirk can

win still and I'm still like I'm not high.

I don't want to say that I'm high on Peer saw.

I'm still cautiously optimistic about what he might be able to bring to the

table as a versatile inside out wide receiver who can do like when they drafted

him, I remember, you know, what the way he was deploying college was, you know,

a lot of endarounds, a lot of jet sweeps and a lot of like, like he was doing

more than just the traditional wide receiver stuff.

And that's exactly what we have with like Debo, right?

And San Francisco in the way that they wanted to deploy him.

Now obviously Ricky Peer saw is not going to line up in the backfield the way

that Debo was.

You know, just get him the ball, let him do it.

Like I think there's more that Peer saw can provide in that facet and area of

that offense that he hasn't provided necessarily as much yet.

So yeah, I think that there are questions.

The fear I think with Evans would be that it's a very volatile situation for

him week to week.

Whereas before the volume might have been stable enough week to week where

you could get away with, okay, his floor was, you know, a four for 50 game

that was okay enough from a fantasy perspective.

The floor now might be more 30 for third or three for 30.

And now you're really struggling on that those, those valleys.

So maybe in the end, Evans wound up being a better and best ball type player.

I still think the ceiling outcomes week to week would be there.

But yeah, I can understand the concerns for sure.

So it's going to be fun and we'll have to keep eyes on training camp.

And hopefully everybody's healthy.

That would be the most fun because I want to see the 49ers do well because

we love when they put those points up on the board.

And again, hopefully the players can defy a little bit of aging here.

We are going to move on to our next team.

The Kansas City Chiefs will they have a balanced offense in 2026 because

JJ, they haven't had that in a while.

They dragged a Clyde Edward to Laird.

I didn't work out so well.

They've tried to go the cheap route at running back seventh rounder Isaiah

Pacheco had a little bit of success.

Keep bringing cream hunt back.

Well, this backfield will look different this year.

Well, we started out with my homes.

Of course, it was the torn ACL week 15 early reports, fully expecting.

He's going to be ready week one and it probably doesn't surprise me.

Just wonder how much scrambling he's going to do this year.

So we'll see how that is.

I'll ask you about that in a minute.

The running back room.

Let's we'll start with that though.

We'll come back to my homes and receivers.

They bring it Kenneth Walker and then a quiet signing of the Murray Demercado.

The only question I have JJ is this.

We know that the chiefs will get free yards for their running back as the place

hurts, just like Chase Brown, Sal and Joe Burle was this quarterback and just

like the chiefs wanted for their running backs.

They want them though to get downhill quick and take those yards.

And if there's explosive ability, now you're chunking beyond that.

Kenneth Walker in theory, sounds like a really good fit.

But he is going to have to clean up one thing, JJ.

He always dances to the outside looking for the perfect hole.

And in this chief's offense, if you don't immediately get down hill,

it could be problematic.

The play could get sniffed out.

If Walker could get a little more decisive, I think it could be a jackpot season

for him.

What are you thinking about the running game in Kansas City?

Yeah, I couldn't agree more.

My evaluation of Walker throughout his career as a prospect throughout his career

has always been because there are there are Kenneth Walker truthers out there.

There are people who believe that he's like just unbelievably good.

And I think that he is unbelievably good from like a carry to carry ceiling

perspective.

Like he is one of the few running backs in the league that can truly take

anything to the house, right, when he gets the ball.

The problem is that it's not consistent from play to play.

It's never been consistent from play to play.

He's always very high in metrics like EPA per rush

because he's able to get those huge monster plays.

And then he's really low in the success rate metrics

because he's a home run hitting running back.

That's what he's always been throughout his career.

And so you pair him in this chiefs offense.

Now I think with the chiefs, you look at this, they go, they sign Kenneth Walker.

You could think two things like number one.

Oh, the chiefs want to be more run heavy.

But that's not really Andy Reed's MO.

It's never been a demo, right?

And so what I think that they did is they looked at cream hunt and I say,

a Pacheco last year, they had one combined 20 plus yard run on over 200

care 280 carries last year.

Like it was, there's just no explosion to that backfield whatsoever.

Kenneth Walker is known for that.

And he was top five, fringe top five and 20 plus run rate last season.

I mean, 10 plus yard rate as well.

I mean, you had eight and a half percent and 6.1% for the two Kansas City backs last year.

Kenneth Walker was 15% and gaining 10 or more yards per rush.

So Walker definitely has that explosive ability.

But like you said, to me, this has a chance to end look,

I chase ceiling and fantasy football.

Like I just, I want the league winner.

You know, I want.

And so I'm probably going to be chasing this more often than not.

But yes, like this is a situation in Kansas City where they get push

because of the way defenses play them and because the offensive line,

how the offensive line is set up.

So they're going to have yards before contact for, for these running backs.

That's what we,

cream hunt was fourth in the NFL last year in success rate, which is crazy, right?

Because he was horrible.

Like, right, watch the guy.

It's like, this is not a, he's, he's done.

Like this is, he's running like a, a 4940 right now.

You know, and so, but with Kenneth Walker back there,

if he is able to be more decisive than all of a sudden, it's a,

it's a 1,500 yard season for Kenneth Walker.

You know, like if he's able to really fit and morph into what they want to do.

And so knowing that there's the upside, but also the,

this is what Kenneth Walker doesn't do poorly.

So this could go south.

I will still chase and go after more of that upside because I also think,

like, I don't think he's a, he's a plus as a receiver,

but I don't think it's a minus as a receiver, I think it's fine.

And so if he can walk in because, you know, three of his four years,

he's had like a 7% target share.

You know, there's that one year where it was like 13% when they grew up as

offensive coordinator.

But like going here, I could see a scenario easily where it's like a 10,

11% target share just given the way this offense has generally operated in the past.

And then all of a sudden, if you get a 10%, 11% target share and Kenneth Walker

starts to really hit behind this line and with this offense and mesh with this offense,

that is legitimately in today's game where, where running back receiving,

you know, they're not getting as many looks through the air.

That's a top six top seven season and fantasy football running back.

So like that's, that's in the range of outcomes.

I'm not saying it's going to hit and not going to finish that way.

But I do think that that's what they're thinking here is they,

they want those explosives with Walker.

So we both agree on Walker's running style, real short answer on this,

because I want to move that out of the receiving part that you talked about.

But what I'm going to say is we haven't seen many running backs very rarely

change their running style during a career.

What is the probability in your mind that Kenneth Walker can actually make

himself a more decisive runner?

It's probably less likely than more like I think it's less like it's likely

that he's not going to change, right?

Like, like between the two, with that being said,

I think that the situation is there enough where it can hide some of this to a

degree, right?

Because he's going to face better and easier defenses than he's faced throughout

his career.

And so I think just given that we're going to see potential for more breakaway

runs or, you know, bigger chunk plays than we've seen before from Walker.

But the, the real question is like, like we've been saying is like,

if it does come together for him, that's when we're talking about like this

unreal, you know, high end RB one type outcome.

Like that's possible.

I don't think it's probable, but I think it's at least possible.

Now, JJ, you mentioned Kenneth Walker in the receiving game.

And I want to add a wrinkled at us.

I do agree with you that he will get a target share.

Patrick Mahomes scrambled at the fourth highest rate last year coming off

in ACL.

I wonder, he's a smart player.

How much will he back off the scrambling if he has a safety valve to throw

the ball to?

And also he had five rushing touchdowns.

So in that we know they didn't like the sneak moments, which they didn't,

but he could get those touchdowns on scrambles.

Do you think that Mahomes may be more careful?

So as to not set himself back in his recovery when he's on the field and Kenneth

Walker, as you mentioned, does this situation of Mahomes?

Going back when ACL amplify that upside, you were talking about especially in the past game.

Yeah, I think so.

I mean, like I, I, I, here's the thing when we say these things like these guys are

competitors.

And so it's very easy for us to be like, Oh, yeah, I'll hold himself back a little

bit because he's, you know, going to make sure that his knees good and that his

recovery is good.

And on one hand, I'm like, these guys are competitors.

They're just going to do what they have to do to win.

But on the other, there actually is pretty strong data, especially with Patrick Mahomes,

because we have a sample size of him in the playoffs.

But we see quarterbacks throw their bodies around a lot more in the playoffs,

let's say versus the regular season, which tells me that this is a very possible

thing to have happen for someone like Mahomes to not throw his body around so

much, especially early on in the regular season, as he's recovering and getting

back to playing shape, et cetera, et cetera.

And so yeah, I mean, like, I, I think that that with any analysis that we do

with Kansas City and looking at recent history, we also have to recognize that the

sample size in recent history.

And when I say recent history, I'm talking about like the meta of the NFL and

what it is now versus what it was six, seven years ago with more of these

spread offences, you know, now we're more, more heavy.

In this meta, we haven't necessarily seen Kansas City with this strong, we

haven't seen Kansas City with this type of running back before.

So I think we have to be a little bit more open-minded about how they deploy

guys in the, at the goal line or how they, you know, use their running backs

out of the backbuilder, what they, like just because we haven't really seen

this, this combination of really strong, talented running back in today's game.

And again, I, I think there's at least some chance that this could signal

that Kansas City wants to run the ball a little bit more, you know, than they

have because you look around the league and teams are fine.

Like, look, passing is still more efficient than rushing and it's always

going to be more efficient than rushing, but the balance that we're seeing

across the league is important because rushing is becoming more efficient due

to what these defenses are giving them in the way they're built, right?

Because, you know, you've talked about it a ton, but, you know, they're smaller,

the deep, the linebackers are smaller, they're faster, so we can get these big

body tight ends and, and running backs back there to do more work.

And, and, you know, Andy reads a smart guy.

They're going to have to recognize this at, to, at some point.

And, you know, look at, like, Sean McVay, like the Rams recognized it, you know,

yes, they ran so much heavy last year after McVay was the person who started

the spread revolution in, in 2017, you know, with the, the 11 personnel

use that he had.

So I think that we're going to see at least some change there with this kind

of walker signing to one more important question.

Now, we won't talk about the receivers in particular, kind of know we got.

We're not sure if we're going to have any legal issue for Rashi Rice,

Travis Kelsey's getting old, but he still piles up the receptions.

But I want to talk about Andy Reed.

JJ, I know the advanced metrics people love what the chiefs have done every

year. In my mind, the offense has not been what it should have been the last

two years. I think they try to throw deep too often.

And I'm homes is not going to go deep passer.

I think the offense had plenty of struggles.

I was hopeful that after last year's disastrous season that Andy

Reed had realized, okay, we had a great run.

We went to the Super Bowl three times, won a couple of them.

Maybe we need to tweak the offense.

And then he brings back Eric Biannamy.

And I'm like, you have got to be kidding me because he's a nice coach,

but this is not going to challenge Andy Reed to be any different than what he's

been. Is my pessimism in the right place?

Or do you think that Andy Reed is going to turn a two year trend where the

offense has not been what we expect from Kansas City chiefs offenses?

Yeah, I think it's a fair, like if you want to use that as a piggyback off of

what I just said with, with the way that, you know, the meta has changed and

how Andy Reed has done things like this is the con, right?

This is the, this is the, the negative side to it is that they're, you know,

in order to enact change, you need to change yourself, like you need to be

able to do something, you know, shuffle things at the, at the coach level or

the personnel level or whatever the case may be.

And so yeah, I think that there is some fear there.

I mean, they also, from a personnel standpoint, just have not gotten wide

receiver right for a while now.

Like even, even Rishi Rice being a hit, he's not a hit in the traditional sense,

you know, like he's just been in a role that is very helpful.

Like he's good, but he's been in a role that has elevated that goodness,

you know, to a degree that us fantasy gamers are like, oh, he's so amazing.

He's so great.

It's like, I mean, he's playing this like weird hybrid slot role where he's

getting peppered with these low A dot looks and in full PPR leagues, we freaking

love that.

But for being realistic, it's not like he's a dominant force.

I still think they need that like dominant force.

They need to at least take a chance on it.

And when you draft archetypes like Miko Hardman and then Xavier worthy,

you know, like those types of players, like you need, you need more of an

alpha in this offense.

I think that's still a missing piece, you know, aside from the coaching aspect,

I still think that they need some alpha.

And that could be a reason why they go out and they get kind of walkers so

they don't feel like they need to get Jeremiah love if he slips in the draft.

And then now you're sitting at nine and you should have your choice at at

least two really strong, maybe three really strong wide receivers there.

So I think there's a chance that they go that direction to in the draft,

just knowing what the personnel looks like right now.

Overall, I am pessimistic and the chiefs being a juggernaut in offense.

Like you said, Walker, I think he's got a great opportunity.

Rashi writes like he's going to pile up the points.

Kelsey will be fine, but just an overall quick hit.

Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the chiefs offense for fantasy in 2026?

I'm going to kind of just stay in the middle and say neutral because I can at least

see the vision of how things can change, right?

And if they, and if they go that route, then I'll feel a little bit better.

But yeah, I mean, like you said, like this is a, this is an experienced coach who's

been coaching and doing things big thanks to our sponsor, better help for

partnering with us for this important conversation about mental health.

This Steve Smith here, former NFL Y receiver and host of the 89 show on you

too. So having a counselor and working with better health, that gives you an

opportunity to really start to unpack, but people don't understand when you

unpack things.

You also open up a box that you're not always sure what's inside.

And so I think that's why I was seeing a professional is extremely important.

If you need someone to open up to visit better help, that's better.

H E L P dot com slash 89 to get started.

Liberty Mutual customizes your car and home insurance to save you money.

That's it. That's the ad. No bells and whistles.

No, guys, I said no bells and whistles.

No.

Tramones are fun.

Visit Liberty Mutual dot com and make the switch today.

Walmart Express delivery can get what you need delivered in as fast as an hour.

Whether it's baby formula when you're down to the last scoop pet food before the

bowl runs empty batteries for a dead remote or a last minute gift, it is handled.

Try Walmart Express delivery today and get free delivery with promo code express

promotion valid for first express delivery order $50 minimum subject to availability

restrictions apply his way for a really long time and his way has generally worked.

And it's not easy to get that change so I can understand the pessimism side.

All right, we'll go over two more important teams after we take a short break.

All right, we go to the Chicago Bears expectations for this offense after Ben Johnson

came in last year and did a phenomenal job turning things around for Chicago.

Jay, Jay, the funny thing, Caleb Williams, 58% completion rate, but he was

asked to throw down field and awful lot.

So in his defense, those are the lowest percentage throws.

Caleb Williams, when a play broke down, he was very reluctant to just dump it off for an easy

one.

I think he was coached to look for the bigger play.

I was very impressed that Caleb Williams really improved his ability to not get

sacked.

The line was much better than it was, but he also did a better job of getting

to the outside almost almost my homes in and how he would just kind of drift to

the outside and everybody remembers those postseason gate.

The post is giving us the Rams at six throw he made.

We ran around for about seven seconds, but Caleb Williams,

fifth week, 15, 18 between 18 to 26 fantasy punches is best stretch in the playoffs

two games average 26 fantasy points.

So Caleb Williams was coming on before we get to the other targets.

What are your thoughts on Williams as he enters year two of Ben Johnson in year three

for his career?

It's been a weird man.

His his the start of his career because obviously we can we can look at year one

and look at the coaching staff and look at the situation and kind of be like,

okay, that was that was that was pretty rough.

Those you know the weaponry was fine.

Obviously, but it was a it was really bad schematically they get Ben Johnson.

And the problem, you know, you mentioned the completion rate.

If you want to look at even advanced metrics that adjust for the depth, right?

His completion percentage over expected was last in the NFL last year.

You know, like, like this isn't this isn't even just like, hey, yeah,

he, you know, just got a little unlucky or, you know, XYZ.

It was worse than J.J. McCarthy's.

I'm not saying he was worse than J.J. McCarthy, but what I am saying is,

you know, it like I looked, I remember doing my dynasty rankings last month

and seeing that Caleb Williams in some rankings like some ADP

was like QB 2, QB 3 and dynasty rankings.

And to me, it's just rich because we're not quite there

in knowing exactly what he is.

Like I've never, you know, typically after a year or two,

you know what you're getting with a quarterback.

Like you have a good idea.

I think Caleb Williams is a gamer.

I think that he's got that gene, right?

That we always thought that, I mean, like he is he's clutch.

Like he's shown that and that's huge for, you know,

especially for franchise, it's been very unclutch through the last,

you know, couple decades.

But with that being said, I don't think that we've seen the consistency yet

from game to game, from play to play, from Caleb.

And that's, that's the probably hopefully he can work on that and get better.

And I do think that when you look at the surrounding situation,

offensive line has gotten a lot better.

You have the weaponry.

I love on a lot of levels.

I think the backfield's fine.

You know, it's not necessarily special, but it's fine.

You don't need, you don't necessarily need to stud back there.

I think that's, it's, you know, fine for them.

So I think that everything is in place for him to take another step forward this year.

You know, from a fantasy perspective too, you know,

the one thing that we have to keep in mind is that a step forward in real football

does not even necessarily have to equate to a step forward in fantasy football, right?

Correct.

Because, you know, the rushing is going to help things when, you know,

things are breaking down.

And maybe if things don't break down as much because he is feeling better

than looking better than all of a sudden,

you're not getting as much rushing production and less fewer scrambles, et cetera, et cetera.

But yeah, I mean, I'm optimistic about Caleb Williams.

You know, I'm not, I'm not QB2 and dynasty optimistic, but I'm optimistic.

I'm optimistic about Caleb Williams in this future.

Well, at least you put that last layer on it.

I like a not QB2 and dynasty.

No, but definitely a player we want to watch this year.

And like you said, the running has been a very, very nice benefit for fantasy measures.

The running game.

J.J. over all, the Bears running game looked really good last year.

Drew Dahlman, their center, really good.

Paul Blocker, his own blocker.

He left in retirement.

Bears did make a free agent saying, but it's not going to be Drew Dahlman.

That's going to hurt a little bit.

But the bigger issue I saw, J.J.

was we remember as late as black Friday when the Bears were playing Philadelphia.

And they were just, they had been cooking up these run schemes that were just keeping defenses on their heels.

And after that game, it was weird because it was a standalone game.

And from that week on, all of a sudden, I saw defensive coordinators frequently going

with five defensive linemen.

And after that point, the Bears rushing attack never really had the traction that it had after that point.

It was almost like all the funky looks the Bears were throwing at defenses.

The fifth defender took away that hole that they didn't think would be there.

The defense, but the offense knew it would no longer at five defensive linemen.

So Deandre Swift down the stretch, little less effective.

Kyle Menungai, a little less effective.

When you take their whole season, it was like a really nice one to punch.

Where do you stand on these running backs going into 2026?

I don't think they're like creators per se, right?

I don't, I don't think that they're like special.

That's what I was saying before they're fine.

You know, if you were to define them that way, the thing with like Menungai, like we know what Swift is at this point.

You know, generally speaking, the thing with Menungai is speaking of someone that the dynasty community seems to really, really like.

Menungai is ranked as like a low end RB two in dynasty right now, high end RB three.

And it scares me, you know, day three capital.

It's not like they invest a lot in him.

And I do think that he's one of those players where he's visually more interesting than what he is going to bring you from a fantasy football perspective.

Because number one, he's not much of a pass catcher.

He's never been really efficient as a pass catcher.

And obviously Deandre Swift can play that role.

That's kind of what his bread and butter has always been.

And then number two, we see the highlight real stuff.

And we see him bulldozing and doing doing the Menungai thing.

But if you look at his like mistakels forced and his avoided tackles where it's nothing special, like it wasn't it wasn't anything.

So that's where that's where the, you know, not all of us, you know, especially people listening and stuff who aren't doing this as their job.

We're going to be able to watch every Kyle Menungai run.

And if you only see the sample of runs, you might think to yourself, this guy's awesome.

But realistically, there was that inconsistency of tackle breaking from play to play with him.

So I like, I think he's fine.

Like he's a, he's a solid RB2 for a team.

I just don't think that he's ever going to be a featured, you know, guy that that will be a bell call seeing, seeing work through the air on the ground very, very consistently.

And that would be my case against them is that I just don't think that their individual creators in the way that some other running backs can be, you know, in this league.

And so, you know, I think there's still a chance not that they're going to spend a lot of draft capital, but I think that they need to still maybe get a third guy that they feel good about even even to potentially throw into that rotation as like a high upside player.

You know, just to see if they could get something else and sort of another, you know, body back there for them and to just get a little bit more juice out of the back.

So it's, again, it's fine, it's fine, but I'm not overly enthusiastic about the person though.

JJ, I was a little bit uncertain about how Ben Johnson, he uses receivers last year.

And I was personally disappointed that I guess the stuff about body language and DJ Moore that was coming up in training camp.

It was true because you could see the DJ Moore was always out there, but he was rarely weaponized when they went to him.

He'd have a big game, but they did not go to him much at all.

And then late in the season, Romo Dunes, they gets hurt.

And then we see the big move from Luther Burden and Colson Loveland.

Well, let's start with Odunze.

Odunze had those great few week run early in the season.

They were using him downfield a lot.

Really, they didn't give him a lot of diverse routes.

They really were a lot of downfield stuff, intermediate downfield.

And I thought that isn't Odunze a little more than that, but okay, he's got a role on the team.

So I get that, but his numbers faded significantly before the foot injury.

And so I wonder if fantasy managers are going to look and remember those early season great games and then say,

well, as a foot injury and then kind of dismiss everything else.

I hope that Ben Johnson is a more varied role for him.

And then, of course, we saw the breakouts of Luther Burden and Colson Loveland down the stretch.

And I'll ask you to talk about all three of them.

But the one thing about Loveland that I really thought was beautiful was the way he was aligned.

They used them out wide.

Everywhere he was that complete, movable chest piece like we talk about.

And he was weaponized program in downfield.

He had a lot of downfields.

They really couldn't have not weaponized him better.

Luther Burden, very, very efficient, very great effort to catch.

What are your thoughts on this wide?

I'll call them wide to see what you know because Colson loves a tight end.

But realistically, they're all functioning as great pass catchers.

What are your thoughts on this group this year?

I do think DJ Moore being gone.

Well, at least open up the versatility that you were speaking of that we didn't necessarily see from these guys individually.

You know, like like Odunze ran more in the slot than I thought he would run to be fair.

But at the same time, yeah, a little bit more one dimensional, if you will, than what we expect.

But I think without more, you're going to just naturally see a more diverse route tree from from all of these guys.

You know, Luther Burden, for instance, didn't have a single game above a 70% route share last year.

And that's almost definitely going to change this year, you know, with another year.

And he came in, you know, Burden in particular, I loved him as a prospect.

Like my model was obsessed with him.

And I probably am a little bit biased as a result of all that and the prospecting work that I did.

But we'd have to ground ourselves a little bit.

Like he had really good per-out run numbers and not really good actually just elite route run numbers per-out run numbers.

But we had to ground ourselves in realizing that like the volume wasn't quite there yet because he wasn't used a lot.

And I think the reason why he wasn't used as much is he had that injury in July and August, you know, as a slower start.

And he also was a little bit more raw as a prospect compared to some of these other guys where like his deployment in college was like Wanda Robinson-esque, you know.

It was, it was just not, it was not typical wide receiver deployment.

Now to his credit, you know, there was some off the field stuff that people were concerned about with Burden.

I think the matching of Burden with Ben Johnson ended up being, it was, could have gone the way, the opposite direction,

but it ended up being a really perfect pairing with the way that he coaches and how demanding he is with the way that Luther Burden, you know, was, was, you know, the character concerns, if you will, that were out there.

And I think that's, that's something to be optimistic about with, with Burden, that, that and the fact that he's now going to be a full-time wide receiver in this offense.

You know, like I do think there's a need for them to get another player, at least from a depth perspective.

But I don't think Chicago is a team that needs to force it in the draft, you know, like they, they have a dunesay, Burden and, and, and Lovlin can work very well in unison, given the fact that they will move.

Like all three of those guys are chess pieces, right?

They can, they can all be moved around the formation.

I think a dunesay is far better suited, like they, they use them in the slot, again, way more than I expected this past year.

And he wasn't very efficient from that area. And so I do think that they need to keep them on the perimeter.

My only fear with a dunesay is Ben Johnson, if you go back this time in Detroit, we kind of saw similar issues with like a James and Williams.

Yes. And what if, what if this is the way they want to deploy Roma dunesay? And we know that that can help a team in real football, right?

But that's going to give you that roller coaster from a fantasy football perspective that we get frustrated and tilted over.

You know, where we just don't know what we're going to get in that given week.

I think a dunesay is a more polished, like traditional X than, than, than JMO would be in perimeter receiver.

But I do have some concern that they don't view a dunesay, like Luther Burton is set up so well with the crossers and stuff that we see in the, in the Ben Johnson, like he will scheme him wide open.

And then he's so good after the catch that there's just so much production upside with a player like Luther Burton, Colston Loveland, same exact idea.

Whereas I don't, you know, that skills that athleticism is not quite there for a dunesay in the same way.

And so that would be my, it's almost like what we were talking about earlier with Mike Evans in the San Francisco offense where it's like, you'll staple him over here, he's going to get you, you know, these chunk plays on the outside.

How consistent will those be, you know, how much can you do with that player? How much are you willing to do with that player?

That would be my only kind of fear with with the dunesay. I think he's a good player. Don't get me wrong. It's just that, that the way this offense is operated in the way that Ben Johnson is operated.

You have to at least question if like he's envisioning a dunesay in a way that he envisioned James and Williams when he was in Detroit.

I like how you mentioned that James and Williams angle. I wonder if Ben Johnson look pretty smart, dude. He had Jared Goff in Detroit. And I get it. Jared Goff put up great numbers.

But Jared Goff has massive limitations. Caleb Williams may have limitations, but they're very different limitations.

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what the usage for that third pass catcher will be because I've had Laporta and I'm on the same brown or great net one year.

And like you said, Jema was the one who was kind of the odd man now, but hopefully Ben Johnson with a much different quarterback could be a little more creative and get a mom up.

We'll have to see how that shakes up. We are going to hear a quick word from our sponsor. Be right back.

It's the off season, but on draft Kings football never sleeps. Early bird best ball is back. Get a head start on the season and compete for a share of $1 million in total prizes before the rest of the field even jumps in.

Are you new to best ball? It's the easiest way to get in on the action without the weekly grind draft ones. And that's it.

Each week, your top scores automatically count. No roster moves, no weekly management. Just build your squad and let it ride all season long.

Download the draft Kings daily fantasy app and draft your early bird best ball lineup for a shot at a share of $1 million in prizes.

Draft stay open until the season kicks off. So now's the time to jump in. You draft it. We crown it. So sign up now using the link in the description below to take your shot at a share of $1 million in prizes on draft Kings early bird best ball contest.

Gambling problem call 1 800 gambler in New York call 877 8 hope and why or text hope and why in Connecticut call 888 7897777 or visit ccpg.org 18 plus and most states restrictions apply see terms at draft Kings dot com sponsored by draft Kings.

JJ we're finishing up with a short one. It's going to be does DJ more help the bills offense, but I'm really thinking outside of fantasy here to a degree. I'm thinking in terms of Super Bowl. This is a team that hasn't been able to get past hurdles and years have been different reasons.

In each of the last two years, JJ, I went into the season, worried for Josh Allen and his passing a they've lowered his passing times way down. This being a run based offense, but my concern was they didn't prioritize outside receiver. Yes, they drafted Coleman, Keon Coleman. I get in that busted, but they really never gave Allen a proper outside presence. So I knew that when defense has had to defend them.

They could kind of like kind of push things into the middle a little bit. Shakira was there, Concade was there and and eventually at some point the bills are going to have a breakdown because they don't have that outside player to win. Now I'm a DJ more truth or full disclosure.

I believe that when he was used last year, he was still that same guy. I maybe he's not, but I have to think there are two places that DJ more helps Josh Allen.

A, obviously just being an outside presence that commands alpha coverage, but can win against that. He can win on bubble screens. He can get over time. But the other thing with DJ more is when those plays break down and Josh Allen is buying time. DJ more is going to be a great asset.

My question to you, I guess there will be a fantasy angle first. What do you expect from DJ more with Josh Allen and then is DJ more the type of player that could potentially help Buffalo's offense, maybe get past an extra round in the playoffs and their goal of getting it a Super Bowl.

Yeah, look, so I had Steve Palazolo on my podcast that drops tomorrow, you know, PFF Steve, you used to be a PFF now open the mic. And so, um, so he, uh, he was on the show and he brought up the point that's very valid that I think that Buffalo was building to beat Kansas City.

Buffalo has built their teams to win over the middle of the field. And that's why consistently they're, you know, getting all these slots and they get Dalton can cade and even Keon Coleman, Keon Coleman to many profile as a big slot at the NFL level because he wasn't a separator at all.

No, and so, and so, um, that's, that's likely their direction and what they've been thinking and it obviously has not worked because you don't just play Kansas City, you know, every single week.

And so now, yeah, you look at what they have a wide receiver. DJ more is, is easily their best wide receiver, like easily, it's not even a conversation.

And I think he can still play inside out the one thing that the other thing to, to note about DJ more is that you might look at his season long numbers last year and say, oh, you know, as yards per out run draft and he did not look like the same kind of wide receiver.

But what would concern me more is if he started off really hot and tailed off because of, of some of the opposite happened. He got better as the season went on.

And when, when things really started to open up more, you know, is that a motivation thing? I don't know, you know, I don't know for sure.

The, the, the full reason, but obviously it opened up for him when a dunesay was hurt. He got, he was able to, to play a bigger role in the offense than obviously, you know, in the playoffs, et cetera.

And so, I, I'm, I'm optimistic for sure about DJ more both in fantasy and in real life this year, because, you know, the thing that you mentioned that is going to probably hold him back from like accounting stat standpoint is Joe Brady's offense from the, from a volume standpoint, because they've been.

Immediately when they made that switch to Brady, they became so much more run heavy and they've stayed that way, generally speaking.

You know, when, when, when, when Stefan Diggs was there with Joe Brady for that, for that time period, you know, he was more of like a low end wide receiver to an expected fantasy points for game.

And so I think that we could see that with DJ more, you know, like in that like lower end wide receiver to range where, you know, there's some upside just because this is a situation that, that obviously you're playing with the best quarter, one of the best quarterbacks in football.

But yeah, so I, I overall, you know, I like the move in theory. I think they paid a little bit too much, but I like the move in theory, and I think it should should fit and work because he's an inside out guy.

He can put, he can win on the outside still.

He sure can't. I'm very excited. So we'll see what this does for the bills. That's that there could be a piece that they need.

Now, the defense is another story, but hey, for fantasy, maybe that makes it better for DJ more or two. We don't talk about Josh Allen. We don't talk about James Cook because we know what we've got there.

Before we close out, JJ a couple of things. We're going to ask you about that rookie guy in the moment, but JJ and I everybody, we both play in the King's classic Jim Brown division.

We drafted the pro football Hall of Fame each year. We both have had success in that league. But one thing I want to point out to viewers and listeners is that these leagues are important because it tests your abilities of fantasy.

Major 14 teams, three flex spots. I always thought, JJ, if people are in a fantasy league and it becomes not a challenge.

Then I always recommend those two things, increase the number of people in the league and increase the amount of player started in the league.

What are your thoughts about the King's classic type of league and how that challenges fantasy managers?

Yeah, look, I love it. Like you said, we've been doing that now. I think I've been in that division for a couple of years now. I played one year in the division below when I first went to the expo and then I got to move up after that first year playing there and then won the league and then you won last year.

So we've, we're talking, we got, we got two champions here is what we're really saying, right? Yes.

But yeah, I mean, like I, I think that, you know, people say all the time, like, like, oh, this, this team's getting lucky or this team, play with more people in your league and, and broaden that starting lineup.

If you want to decrease variance a little bit too within this game because there's less of those like, you know, start, sit decisions at the end of the day are truly 50 50 and there is some luck involved in how you're approaching that.

And so there's not like the start sit decisions that you're making in a league like this are very much lower tiered players than are going to necessarily impact your starting lineup quite as much as if you're in a 10 team league where you're, you know, contemplating, you know, benching a wide receiver, a legit wide receiver to for a legit wide receiver to that's just not going to happen in these kinds of leagues.

So yeah, I mean, like it's a, it's a really fun format. It really tests you the waiver wire each week. I mean, we're spending a lot of, of auction dollars on some just very mediocre players, you know, just just just just given the nature of what's out there in the, in free agency and on waivers.

But I think it's something that everybody should should try to try to do in their league if they're trying to do a little bit more fantasy football.

Yeah, I love that take now JJ everybody out there. I'm sure most everybody knows JJ, but JJ comes up with a rookie guide every year in addition to all the other great work he does. And I want you to tell everybody about that and how they can access or purchase that guide.

Yeah, so if you go to layaround.com, it's right there to purchase the prospect guide. Yeah, I mean, it's, it's a, it's a labor of love. A lot of, a lot of work goes into it. It's 170 pages of, of very nerdy content. You know, I have prospect models for running back wide receiver in tight end that I've, you know, tested through the years and that I've, you know, try to improve every year.

And I'm fully transparent with what goes into those models. There's an entire 20 to 25 page section on all of the inputs of the model and why I made the choices I made. So if you're into that kind of thing, you can get that transparently.

You know what's going into it. And then from there, there's profiles of every running back wide receiver in tight end who are at the NFL combine this year and you get like a score for them out of 100. It's a zap score because it's a zap model.

And then there's also a year two section in there. So I have a model that looks at year two players to look at how they performed in their first year in the NFL.

It kind of mixes some of those metrics with their zap scores, their prospect score, and it spits out how well they're going to do a year two through four of their NFL career. So all of that is in the late round prospect guide found on layaround.com.

Yeah, the last thing I'll say is look, those who follow me and know me, smart people talking football, I can learn. And I know a lot of people out there have the same ability to find people who are going to challenge you and make you better at fantasy.

So Jay is one of those people. And if you're one of the few people on the planet, I'm following him. You should be because again, you'll be smart for having listen to him.

JJ, appreciate you hanging out with me. I'm sure we'll do this at some point again and we'll definitely meet up in Canton and we'll try to see who comes out third times a charm on winning another belt.

That's right. Yes. I think our sponsor draft Kings and thanks to everyone for listening. Come back next week for another edition of the Roto wire fantasy football podcast.

Why have we asked our contractor? We found on Angie.com to be our kids legal guardian because he took such good care when redoing our basement that we knew we could trust him to care for our kids.

All eight of them should something happened to us.

Are you my dad now? No, sorry, I do basement.

Connecting homeowners with skilled pros for over 30 years. Angie, the one you trust to find the ones you trust. Find pros for all your home projects at Angie.com.