44. Is Trump Winning or Losing – or Should We Ask a Different Question?

Where does American democracy stand as we are headed into the summer? About a month ago, around the 100-day mark, the idea that Trump was losing, that maybe we were already experiencing the beginning of the end of MAGA’s attempt to erect authoritarian rule, started gaining currency among prominent commentators. We look at the main arguments presented by those who believe that Trump is losing: The constant chaos and incompetence, public opinion turning sharply away from Trump, the courts pushing back and civic society resisting. All of these are important factors. But we are not convinced that means Trump is “losing.” He isn’t “winning” either. In fact, binary ideas of winning/losing (or strength/weakness) may not be very helpful if we want to understand America’s trajectory. The regime might be back-paddling in some areas, while escalating in others; periods of acceleration might be interrupted by treacherous phases of perceived “normalcy.” A key question we should be asking: What does an authoritarian movement like MAGA do when they run into problems, as frustrations start to mount? Will they settle and moderate – or further radicalize? The uncomfortable answer is: We don’t know, and we should accept the openness and uncertainty of the situation – just as we should resist the temptation to measure everything by some rigid idea of an authoritarian “playbook.” American democracy might not crumble exactly the way it has elsewhere; the specifically American, specifically 21st century version of authoritarianism might not look like either the historical examples or the present-day examples from countries around the world. We have much to learn from both the historical analogy and the international comparison. But they don’t offer exact blueprints - instead, they can help us ask the right questions and guide our attention where it needs to be directed.  

Finally, we talk about what will be next for the podcast, as Thomas’ professional (leaving academia) and personal (leaving America) situation is changing. Spoiler: The podcast will go on – and in fact, there will be a lot more, and more frequent, “Is This Democracy” soon!

Show notes:

Jennifer Rubin, “Trump is worse off than he was 100 days ago,” The Contrarian, April 28 https://contrarian.substack.com/p/trump-is-worse-off-than-he-was-100

Zack Beauchamp, “Trump is losing,” Vox.com, April 30 https://www.vox.com/politics/410966/trump-democracy-100-days-losing

Andrew Marantz, “Is It Happening Here?” The New Yorker, April 28 https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/05/05/is-the-us-becoming-an-autocracy

Steven Levitsky, Lucan Way, and Daniel Ziblatt, “How Will We Know When We Have Lost Our Democracy?” New York Times, May 8 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/opinion/trump-authoritarianism-democracy.html

Jonathan V. Last, “The Secret Police Are Here,” The Bulwark, June 2 https://www.thebulwark.com/p/the-secret-police-are-here

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