487 | Just Baseball's Top 100 Prospects (15-1)

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And it's nice.

Hit it high.

And deep and go.

Still not bad.

We're out.

All I am.

Go up to the pinkley.

Deep to center field.

And it is gone.

Wow!

His first pig league swing is going to be a grand slam home run.

Swing and try.

Not to run.

It's a big hit.

I feel like it's a big hit.

I feel like it's a big hit.

It's a big hit.

Yeah.

It's a big hit.

I feel like it's a big hit.

It's a big hit.

It's a big hit.

We made it to the top 15 prospects in baseball here on the call-up Aram Layton,

Jack McMullan, perfect time to talk about several of these players because what a day for the kids on opening day part two.

Part three is today's, we're recording this Friday, March 27th, but it's the real part one.

It's really 1A after we've got the ball.

But, man, the kids balled out everywhere.

We'll save McGonagall and Weatherhold actually gives us something different to talk about with them instead of just gushing over these same abilities that we have for years now on this podcast, but chased a lot or two homers.

He's got to do it over 100 plus games, both health wise and just production wise, but swing looked like it worked in his first regular season, big league game.

I don't know how it worked, but it worked.

I guess the two homers was crazy and the get off me swing resulting in a no doubt shot to write is unbelievable.

Yeah, and there are a couple of guys like Benches in this clumping as well, but what was cool about opening day on Thursday is all the kids that showed out were the ones that are in the highest regard.

Like there's a reason that you're making your big league debut or your regular season debut into Lauders case on opening day.

You are one of the best prospects in baseball.

There are going to be no slouches in every team's a line up and there is no slouch among this rookie class here.

Nobody got a token start on opening day and everybody contributed seemed like it was kind of a reminder.

I hammered home the point that I was talking about with Elijah on the last podcast, which was like.

Look, Carter Griffin is probably the most talent.

He is the most talented prospect. That's why whole being number one when we get there, but.

The idea maybe from the pirates was like, look, this is going to be a really tough year, even for the most talented prospect.

If he's raw to win the PPI for their team when the rookie of the year and earn that PPI pick for them because.

There's just so many guys that are so talented, so what we'll talk about.

Weather hole and bench and then McGonagall when we get to those names, but I just wanted to shout out to Lauders as well on those two swings and.

I don't know these balls, man, and this like some these kids are really talented.

Some of these swings, I'm like, how did that produce that? It might just be these kids are freaks these balls might be trampoline and a little bit out of the gate.

I don't know what we'll have a little bit more data to see things in the coming weeks, but.

Let's get right into it at number 15.

Who's another guy that had a great game. It just wasn't his MLB debut.

I'm by the way, chase the water is number 20 on our top 100.

I just want to shout that out because a lot of people said the swing wasn't going to work and had him a lot lower than that.

I want to be clear as long as the sky is healthy.

Like I said, probably going to be the second blessed blend of hitting power in that guardians lineup.

Speaking of hitting power blend, though, South Stewart.

He brings just that to the table.

Obviously it's going to be a little bit more power than hit because that's just who he is, but that isn't really who he was in the early going in the mono waves.

Now, I really like that development from him, right? He was a guy that you're always dreaming on the power was really hard EVs was kind of the Yandi Diaz light type of thing where.

He's hitting the living crap out of the ball and it's just not at the best angles to maximize power.

Then South starts just making some subtle adjustments.

There was nothing that clear mechanically in the second half of last year.

I think it might have been a little bit of timing, just small little path things, maybe some swing thoughts and all of the sudden.

He's elevating the ball at a significantly better clip through the second half of the season.

I really like that into a big league debut and an opportunity to play in, you know, their brief little postseason appearance there.

But I think that was the thing that really catapulted South Stewart for me was you saw this guy with good recognition of spin.

Really good raw power solid field to hit.

Now finally check the last box, which was that ground ball rate and just a reminder for reference like going into July.

It's about 28% ground ball rate from South Stewart and an average launch angle about 10 degrees on hard hit balls from July.

First onward, which includes his big league debut that ground ball rate dropped to 35% and it's a hard hit launch angle of 20 degrees.

That's night and day.

So maybe I need to dive into the mechanics a little bit more.

There might be something a little bit more tangible regardless.

It makes that change is the upper minors and majors in his age 21 season.

And now he enters his age 22 season looking like a guy that could provide, you know, above average hit plus power and, you know, above average play discipline.

And by the way, the glove ain't too bad either.

I know he's not going to be an everyday third baseman, but he can plug there.

You don't need that with Brian.

He could get by a second base and he looks like a darn good first baseman.

Though Roman Anthony almost took his hand off on a line drive.

Thank goodness he's not hurt.

I was going to say tough as hell coming back from that because that was an absolute laser beam off the batter Roman Anthony and in quick aside here if you are watching this right after opening day.

That at bat in what the top of the ninth inning for Roman is exactly why the ABS challenge system was needed.

Bad call is a cold strike three to get Cincinnati out of the inning.

Roman challenges the call is overturned the red socks put on two more runs and they win by two.

Like that was everything that the ABS challenge system was implemented to do.

It was take a bad call right the wrong and then allow momentum to continue to go.

So that was really cool.

But yeah, he got come back or right off the wrist.

He was in a lot of pain, but he stayed in the ballgame.

He said I was good after effectively I was reading some of the transcription from his post came interview.

Like he pretty much got confirmation that his wrist wasn't broken.

He's like, all right, screw it on still.

Not later.

Let's go.

The other thing on South Stewart real quick is this guy has been good literally everywhere in any sample debut right after he was drafted at a high school in 2022 and eight 50 OPS was first eight games.

He was seven for 24 with four doubles 23 and eight 10 OPS 24 and Dayton in eight 44 OPS 25 in the minor leagues and nine 10 OPS.

Big leagues 18 games and eight 39 OPS spring training 60 plate appearances in 20 games of 10 42 OPS.

This guy is good every single place he goes every single level every single stop.

There is no example of failure yet and the question is what does failure look like for him because we haven't seen it.

Exactly.

I mean, even at the bigs, right?

I thought maybe we'd get a micro dose of a failure facing Garrett crochet and he launches a hundred nine mile per hour double.

He gets crochet again on like a single and then he gets Garrett Whitlock for a three hit game, you know, in this ballgame where, you know, again, when he ends up taking one off the hand and stays in there too.

I mean, they got him hit and clean up on opening day against Garrett crochet against the red socks.

I think it's a little bit different than the feelings maybe that they had on South Store or maybe the manager had, you know, when he first got his taste at the end of last year, like this guy's got to do the little things.

I think now the expectation is understandably this guy needs to go mash for us and be one of our most productive hitters and it's a lot to expect of a 22 year old.

But I think he's, you know, up for the occasion and that's why I think South Store has a really strong chance.

I picked him.

Peter took JJ weather hold and part of the reason why I went with South Store on the rookie of the year and award predictions on the just baseball show.

But the other reason is like, I think South just might take this thing from the guy that has the highest floor because he's his ceiling is just higher.

Although if JJ does what he does to or what what he did yesterday to fastballs off the plate away.

And my the ceilings might be a little bit different. I might have to recalibrate there, but we'll get there in a moment.

Number 14.

Treyas Savage. So Treyas Savage is banged up.

I think that's abundantly clear.

Shoulder thing. We never know the severity.

Impingement, you know, impingement is broad. There's different levels of like how we have that could potentially how long that could hold him out how he's going to be after that time lay the layoff of seeing how he comes back from that we'll see.

It sucks because he's a guy that you're so excited to see after, you know, an all time postseason performance, especially from a rookie.

Also the question just the big question with him was just going to be easy super weird, weird works.

You have an elite splitter. You have this really unique slider and and then you got this fastball, but the command is like fringy.

What does it look like over 25 starts? I hope we still get the opportunity to see that. I think there's still a chance that we will.

But I also think the blue jays are going to be very careful with this guy. I think it's not quite Dodgers territory.

But I think it's similar to where the blue jays are saying we got a really good chance to make the playoffs. We've got a lot of rotation pieces anyways right now.

Our focus is that Treya Savage, who's already stamped in the postseason is available in the postseason. So we it may be a little bit more of a lead back into action than then we believe even if he is healthy.

That's just a big question right is does that weird continue to work to that degree in start 15 16 17 18 as players have a little bit more opportunity to see him game plan idea idealize kind of how they can approach him and all those different things.

Can I tell you I think the severe over the top delivery is conducive to blow up starts but also untouchable starts.

So I think what we're going to see you savage turn into is a guy that throws 150 to 175 innings in the mid threes ERA wise.

But that mid threes are a bunch of different ways to get there and you can go five and a third one hit with 11 punchouts against the Yankees in the postseason or it can be bombs away a couple of times.

I think there will be starts if you gave Treya Savage 25 to 30 starts in a major league season.

I think seven or eight of them he looks untouchable and it looks like one of the best arms in baseball and you're saying how is with how is he not the number one prospect in the game.

But then there are also going to be five to six of them where it's like this guy can't find a strike zone at all right now and that is the case with a really unique delivery because they are sports cars and like this delivery is a sports car.

If you hit a bump in the road things are thrown out of whack.

It's a timing based delivery like there are 10 different things that you've got a time up in there and thankfully it's his natural throw but I do think that he will have blow up starts over the course of a season.

He will have untouchable starts over the course of a season and it'll all normalize over 25 starts to be like a three and a half year.

Yeah and to be a really good middle rotation starter and that's why when I call a guy like a volatile middle rotation guys it's not necessarily a negative.

It's it's generally going to be hey you're going to see flashes of you know number two type stuff.

Maybe even you know guys you say maybe this is our budding ace and then you're going to see days where it's like man.

That's not the Treya Savage I got used to and it's possible also he could just continue to refine and get more comfortable and you never know.

I think fortunately a little bit of Benjamin generally is not the best way to get there because he's that's where I'm glad they caught it early you start.

The body just starts to adjust almost subconsciously that's why I've been with Quinn Matthews last year you start to adjust your slot not even knowing it.

And now all of a sudden your pitches are doing different things and going in different places and you're like wait that's not what my mind thinks it's doing so at least they caught this early.

Yeah real quick pavetta is like obviously always the comp because of the super high over the top you know release site and the delivery and all that we saw pavetta struggle command wise in the first inning on opening down Thursday.

Yeah I think a better one is probably just based on how the season could go like I think there's a lot of McKenzie Gore production in Treya Savage.

Gore's starting game three for Texas and Texas feels awesome about that but when they feel awesome if he was their opening day starter I don't know.

Yeah no I think it's a great point and I think a big thing for you savage is going to be that fastball command and even in his big league stint if you combine major league regular season games and then the post season.

The reason why he was so successful was actually he was spotting those secondaries at a really good clip 66% strike rate between the two 51% swing rates getting guys to swing a lot at it and chasing at a 38% clip.

The challenge is the fastball was a sub 60% strike rate and you know you want to establish with that and I think hitters were kind of just laying off of that in general that swing rate on the fastball is like 39%.

So I don't know what the approach was if they're sitting soft a fastball taking them off guard but if you can spot that and freeze them it's going to be a little bit different than you know maybe letting them back into counts but if he has a secondary is commanded like that.

You savage is going to be a pretty good spot because you can get himself back into any count the tunnel from that high release of the fastball splitter might be one of the more difficult combinations and baseball so as long as he has that fastball command I think it opens up the doors for everything else but historically there has been a little bit of like touching go with the fastball command so that'll be the thing to monitor.

Got you.

Number 13 another big league or Carter Jensen again like I think with Jensen now there used to be a point where I'd have to kind of like fake I was like yelling into the mics and like pay attention to this guy's power it's different right like we're not fully recognizing this guy's power.

This is a really unique athlete blah blah blah I think everyone's privy to Carter Jensen this point I ever I see him getting tweeted about left and right about the power of being picked for a I'll rookie the year all this the underground he's the underground indie folk artists that you were on when he was performing in garages and now he's playing like that bougie concert hall in New York and everybody's like oh I went because I'm edgy and I wore a scarf for the show.

If I would say that's a decent comp.

I think he's going to have a really good year.

I think a lot of people agree with that and the thing I could just go back to and we've told stories so many times which is like this was kind of the one of the things that opened my eyes a little bit more because it wasn't I wouldn't say it was gradual like it was a pretty significant leap in the power department at least in the raw power department in 2025.

I think he flashed some stuff in 2024 you started to see that hard hit rate climb up but 2025 was kind of a different beast and when you look at 2023 the power was extremely light he just wasn't very good understandable where time out of high school catcher here and I think that's an important thing to monitor like we always forget.

These high school catchers look at Joe Mac to right Joe Mac for the first couple years I mean he was trending towards some minutes of what have you done for me lately territory but like you're people didn't want to hear about Joe Mac like why even tell me about that guy like he's not hitting like we'll see what the glove is but may not matter blah blah blah and then all the sudden boom it just all comes together because these high school catchers there's a reason why it's an extremely dangerous archetype I think the archetype becomes I think all of those.

Preemptive don't draft this position from this like high school type of guy like I think that's going to dissipate now that we just have the player development infrastructure that we have.

I think historically it was bad because we didn't have it across a lot of these teams was like that is just the hardest type of player to help make the leap a high school catcher usually catchers really need college right so that was just something that I think people saw a power right handed picture out of high school those guys usually really needs season.

I don't think it's that that archetype is like impossible to polish and develop I think it's more that just we didn't have the infrastructure to do it.

And now we can it's harder but these guys now I think it allowed for teams to find some really high up side guys the teams where maybe a little bit spooked up and Carter gents and was a third round pick.

So you see this guy go from kind of fringy power but you know showing some athleticism he's not like it's not like he's a huge guy either.

To show him like slightly above average power maybe maybe comfortably above average in 2024 and then so maybe it was a little bit more gradual but I feel like 2024 is already a huge leap and then 2025 he just turns into a guy that has 70 grade raw like 107 mile per hour EV 90 hard hit rate of 54%

bad ball angles are good drastically improved against secondary is that was my big thing he used to just leak out you know pretty much right as the ball starts to break he just couldn't hold it back he wasn't recognizing well now he is really well.

The plate discipline looks comfortably above average now and then the defense has gotten to a point where I think he can be average back there.

So I'm just I'm looking through honestly zips projections right now sorry the bad X the bad X is a is a more accurate model than zips projections I learned that this off season but I'm looking through the bad X projections right now and I'm just looking at the catcher war leader board here and Carter gents in wood I think blow the next best high school drafted catcher out of the water I'm just looking at the top 10 like American amateur draft catchers taken.

And they're all college guys top 15 all college guys so Carter gents and could be that high school drafted catcher the kind of bucks the trend as Ken Joe Mac Logan O'Hoppy is not a war accumulator but O'Hoppy is probably the best high school drafted catcher that we've gotten baseball right now but he's consensus outside of the top 10 to 15 catchers and baseball so it bit of a rare breed like seeing a high school catcher be able to thrive at the major league level this quickly based on my little monologue off the job.

I think we're going to see more of it Joe Mac go back that up to is well soon and then you know we'll see if some of these some more of these guys can you know again start to buck that trend but really excited about a full year from Jensen with the walls a little bit more shallow there in Kansas City.

Number 12 Bubba Chandler guy that you've seen plenty of up close and personal I know you think the world of as just the way he goes about his business and also just what what he has on the mound I don't think anybody can really speak out against that for him it's going to be continuously the same conversation right I mean it's a 70 fastball it's a plus change up and I think both breaking balls like that slider it looks like it can be an above average pitching throws it really hard it's really this cutterish slider and then the curve.

Ball as well as kind of a taste breaker it's just about execution and it's really all it is this final spring training start he executed right I mean it was five innings one hit it was a home run to Jair Camargo he hit a one 13 and it was just a slider that backed up you know on the inner half.

It struck out.

Sorry if you're not privy to it real quick Jair Camargo has been doing that for years like he's got a half decade of just triple a absolute tanks.

Yeah and that's why he's still around and it's really fun to watch when you get a one that stretch it one walk eight K's like that's him right overall had a pretty solid spring but there was

thing the first three adding to sell four walks in the first outing and that's all the sun be more like he's over throwing whatever three walks three walks but then

really settled in with that one walk over five innings and that kind of ties into what we saw over the final three starts of the

regular season last year where it was 16 and two thirds no walks to earn runs and 19 strikeouts so I think the biggest

thing right is just is Bubba Chandler going to get in Bubba Chandler's way and I think that really is the difference

between him being a you know a volatile middle rotation guy or a number two type right is going to be that execution

because that fastballs a get out of jail free card and guys that usually backspin the fastball like that don't have you know the four pitches that that

Bubba Chandler has. I'll call it I think this guy in six years is going to get paid like a frontline arm and you know we're going to see four years at least

of him being the number two in that rotation behind schemes maybe even the three but it was funny like we were having this conversation

and Bubba was making his way through the minor leagues and plenty of people asked the question would you rather have Bubba Chandler or Jared Jones?

And there was not a right answer I still don't know if there's a right answer because they're pretty similar in age.

Bubba is I want to say two years younger than Jared Jones but it just seems like they both have this insane ability

three ace level stuff guys fronting the pirate rotation and then you've got Keller who's as safe as they come as the four. I think Bubba and Jones get paid like front line guys in six years

I don't know who gets paid more I could see Bubba being one of those guys that like he's never been the one in the rotation but he gets $200

billion when he gets free agents and then he's the one maybe at that wherever he goes or he's just yeah joins a team that's just got

crazy crazy money it's funny I remember you asking me that question I completely forgot and my answer even though we love Jared Jones and I remember really singing the praises

because that two pitch make you know that the fastball slider combination alone is just amazing was Bubba Chandler just because of the safety net say he has

the fact that with the 70 fastball and 60 change up in the way those pitches work off of each other the fact that you even have two breaking balls

and now I would like to see a little bit more distinct shape like the curve ball is very similar shape wise to the slider

but it's still it's several ticks lower and there's times where it has a little bit more separation but still the fact that he has that in that

slider is a great pitch in 89 to 90 and then has that that curve ball at about like 86

it's just something Jared Jones that you hope he comes back from TJ with because he's had a lot of time to you know the internal

time to work on maybe just other throws but Bubba already having that is is you know pretty exciting

here's Carson Bench it's it Carson Ben I saw pronunciation guide you're going to need to learn the soon buddy

brother I mean in spring training it was Bench in the minor leagues it was Bench yesterday Vaskers and called him Bench

and then I see one tweet it's like it's actually Ben is it like I would love to see

something more official come out baseball reference I believe has Bench what do you see

I'm literally going to look at player profile Carson Bench from I mean it was the draft but like I don't think he

I think he I well he wouldn't identify as a different last name within the last year and and change right year and a half

I don't think so you know you know with the way that I'm actually going to do this and this kind of gives you a peak behind a curtain

the Odyssey Metz radio network Metz radio booth let's see if they tweeted the highlight of the Homer

okay Carson Bench told me it's Carson Bench with his intro also he had some crazy lettuce going on in the draft

like really nice curls like he had both directions looks like kind of an 80s hairstyle there so okay I got Bench from Carson Bench there in the draft

like I'm Carson Bench and blah blah blah so let's go with that and here's how he roads real quick here's how he wrote

I like you know Paul Ted Carson Bench makes this fun yeah there we go how it goes I'll always trust you always this guy's awesome

right we've talked so much about it if you're in Dynasty fantasy baseball like I hope you picked him up

acquired him a while ago because we were talking about him being on the opening day roster at the end of last year

and I'm just glad the Metz did it right sometimes these teams in wind now mode they just they want to go with the vet

I know they brought in talk been to make a competition I think Bench was going to make it anyways he earned it

makes some people were a little spooked by it and we kept saying like don't be spooked by the triple a finish

you got one he climbed all these levels two it was a really long season it's the first full pro season

and three got hit on the hand really badly in the middle of that triple a adjustment and it clearly affected him

for a handful of games barely a time to really come back and you know succeed at the end of the year

but he still had you know some good games after that this guy can get by in center and I don't even get by

I think play an average center field he could play I think a plus corner and then he got above above average wheels

what I loved about the pro debut or the big league debut was that you kind of got a little bit of everything of

why this guy's going to succeed look there's a little bit of slack to the swing

but he's so wippy that he'll get away with it we're just see sometimes it's going to get like jammed it on the

hands and it's just going to be an inside out like flying saucer over the short top set

he's going to get attacked inside a lot and I think there's going to be some growing pains with that as he

just learns to either lay off of it or get the barrel out a little bit quicker there that way

or find a way to be a little bit more efficient path wise but when he can get extended like it's

it's one I think you start to see that above average power but too he's just has this ability

to get the barrel to anything and get enough of the barrel to the ball to get it to the outfield

or spoil so he strikes out his first two at bats like understandably so tough draw right and

I feel like and also you prepare and then you end up not really facing the guy that you prepare for

you know with the weird game that that was third at bat he gets a tough relief arm

and I think it was Isaac Mattson good fastball and just spoil spoil spoil spoil spoil

spoil works the full count spoil draws the walk next at bat he gets a hanger and he

doesn't miss it right he crushes it I think it recalibrated him why I like bench to ultimately I think this

guy can be you know a multi all star but why I like him to fill a role

that's this here it's going to do all the things that they need him to do I don't think they're expecting him

to go out there and reach his 25 homer upside right away or go out there and and reaches you know 290

to 290 batting average upside or you know 360 OBP whatever it may be I think it's just looking

at firm to go out there and compete right and and be a net positive for them

and the some of his parts is going to allow him to do that I think we saw that

and that's why I really like this guy the approach is just so good the ability to compete at bats wise

and then the ability to hammer mistakes like I just think he's going to be a really solid floor

prospect that's going to help them that's when games this year maybe a shelter from left ease

a little bit we'll see and maybe there will be some growing pains with the stuff on the

inner half that's really like thrown hard in there but I just think he's he's twitchy

enough to get away with it on the just baseball show we've talked a lot this

offseason about the Dodgers having a rhythm of always having a corner outfield spot

that's been a bit of a revolving door and one that's been underwhelming if you were to poke one

hole in their starting lineup in each of the last three four or five years

it would be one of those corner outfield spots whether it was right or left

and they just plug it in with Kyle Tucker on the call upside the

Mets have had a one outfielder issue for the last couple of years they have two outfield spots

Soto's and one of them Nimmo was in the other they were trying to figure out center

last year and Tyrone Taylor was not the answer Siri was not the answer

that's been the case for the last couple of years what do they do they have one of the top

prospects and all the baseball plug in and it seems like their outfield is pretty

damn solidified now with with Soto with Robert with that yeah

I think it's really exciting I think there's a way even for the big market teams

you got to give some of your guys an opportunity and then you know maybe you put that

money elsewhere but also like you don't want to fully block what you have

you know I'm Michael Bush but again it's it's hard to

complain when you then have a Hall of Famer in that spot anyway so again I really like the way

the Mets played this and and you know I think Ben was very deserving of the opportunity

number 10 Max Clark

we're gonna get to Clark who got an assignment to triple A which I think is an exciting

you know semi aggressive push for him in a moment before that first break

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so Max Cork gets sent to Toledo and I think

I think it is semi-aggressive because

now and I don't mean aggressive in the sense that like he shouldn't be there

just aggressive in the sense that

Scott Harris

and just the way that a lot of these teams operate

you could have easily seen

Cork sent back to double A where

you know there was a little bit of an adjustment period as it was for just about every single hit

so like he got up to double A last year for about 43 games he was good

he was really really solid

I mean they saw enough of those 43 games

where he had the 798 OPS to say

and I think from a WRC plus perspective it was much better than that

I don't know if you have that up in front of you

look this kid's up polished we know that he's got you know the abilities

he's ahead of his years in a lot of ways on the baseball field like let's just

let's just get him a triple A because this is a guy that can potentially help us this year

I also really think it was it was good

to not send him back to double A after all the BSA to deal with through the spring training

and just to kind of

the gesture of hey like this is a guy that we think could help us this year and if not this year

definitely be helping us next year

he's a great contingency plan for a team in winnow mode

that you know currently has parker meadows out there

but you got to give parker meadows a little bit of a shot

I like max corks floor like more than anything

I know the ceiling can be so exciting

because he started to tap into more power

but the hit tool being plus

the plate discipline being plus

being a plus plus runner

and a plus defender in center field

as a left handed hitter

you're going to have a pretty good chance at

at least accumulating a couple of war per year

but obviously if if car can push towards that

slightly above average power plateau

like

you got a lot to be excited about

yeah full season WRC plus for him

is age 20 year between high and double A

a 148 WRC plus

68 games in high A 157

and then 135 in double A

so it's quite good

I mean I

it's really good really good

I actually thought AAA was the right assignment

for him especially with McGonagall and the big leagues

at this point like you don't want those guys two levels apart

yeah I understand

they're running their own race

but from a tiger's perspective

the future you're franchise you do not want those guys two levels apart

so I love it

I think that he is going to rake

in Toledo to be honest with you

it's an easier place to hit than double A

it just is

and I do think that he eventually takes over center field

for them I bet it happens right after the all-star break

yeah and that's what like the ETA was

before it was 2027

I think realistically he's getting up there

sometime in 2026

even if Parker Meadows is swinging it

like even if things are going well

all across the board there's not really a spot

per se for Max Clark

Gary Cart played right yesterday man

he's going to have a spot on that bench down the

down the line as a speedster

as a pinch runner

I mean and to also be able to plug

in defensively at leverage

and give you a better defensive outfield in general

so he's going to

he there's so many different ways that he can provide value

that I think you're going to see him up there

and the biggest thing for Clark is just going to be

you know continuing to show that he can

tap into more power

I think he took a big step in the right direction last year

in doing that

EV90 crept kosher to 105 miles per hour

a hard hit rate about 42 percent

I think those are both really solid figures

for a guy that's a plus hitter

and again the plate discipline just reaching

another level here

where you know I think

the spin recognition the feel for the zone

he walks more than he struck out last year

I think that was all things that you love to see

from a 20-year-old that you played a third of the season

at the upper levels

we get to number nine

Leo de Vries

so I got to update that ETA

that guy's not that that guy's getting up by 2027

and Heckman

he might get up at the end of this year

and I think that might be the most realistic

working eligibility

but get him up at the very end of this season

and I wouldn't blame the athletics for doing that

Leo de Vries

this is just the most fun

stat here

and I know I was working on this with Peyton Genus

our video extraordinaire

and producer on the just baseball show

we were driving back from spring breakout

and

he was talking about Leo de Vries spring training

and I was like dude

like you could extrapolate that

and he's looking at the double A numbers

and he's like holy crap

and then it's again when it's not included there

it's also his postseason where

he hit three homers in like six games

or five games

so we're like let's encapsulate all of that

if you encapsulate

double A

and remind you this is a guy that was 18 years old

when he was promoted to double A

he turned 19 years old

in the back half of this sample here

Leo de Vries

in 45 games between double A

and

big league spring training where the athletics gave him

a hell of a lot of runway

out there

45 games

333

4629

and actually let me eliminate the

spring breakout game

because that doesn't help in the case

and that's not big league spring training

342

406

206

406

206

309

406

309

306

305

30 RV

3011

below average exit velocities. Like he's kind of ESOc Peretta's his way to slugging. And I can

promise you Leo DeVries is going to start hitting the ball harder as he matures. But as a switch

hitter to have your swing path so optimized that you are slugging to this degree, I think is so

so exciting. And it was really down the stretch there from double A and then Big League Spring

training. As he adds a little bit more in the EV department, I think you're going to see a guy

that again looks like a potential superstar here. And you know, there's a third base opening

there and in Sacramento or Vegas or whatever. And I think he can potentially grab onto that.

And probably never let go. We're talking about above average hit, above average power,

plus plates discipline and the ability to stick on the left side of the infield with above average

plus speed. It's literally the final piece to the puzzle for the athletics being the best 2K team

ever created. Honestly, like the breeze playing third base for them is just that's it. I'm good.

And then you immediately become the early 2010s Knicks with Jeremy Lynn and Amari Stautamirin

Primelo. It's it's the good stuff. But Leo DeVries, he's got a little choreo in him from a production

standpoint. He turns it on in the second half. And we now have a pattern of him doing that. And we'll

see if he can do it over the course of an entire season in his age 19 season. But Leo DeVries

in 2024 in low A I remember we talked about him catching fire in July. I'm going to give you the

monthly OPS in May 656. And this is 24 in low A when he was what 17 years old is 18.

In May 656 in June 615 OPS. But in July 1136 and then 782 in August in 2025 when he was in

Fort Wayne in April and a thousand and three OPS grade. But then he dipped in May to a 599

that is 659 in June. But in July 827 and 713 in August at a 1271 in 10 games of September not

accounting for the postseason the Patents talking about and then a hell of a spring training as well.

So the last thing from a production perspective at least aside from the exit velocities is him

getting going early in the season because he has been a second half hitter so far.

Which is funny because as you play it out you think like oh he's just settling into the level a lot

of the times he's he's performing in the second half at a higher level than he was in the first half

and he's out performing where he was you know what he was doing at a lower level in the first half.

He's just finding a groove honestly I bet it's routine based I bet he just feels so good in his

routine and his daily life and his rhythm that I mean he is he's dialed in for the last three

months of the year. Last thing on him you know I want to see the bags become a little bit more of a

part of his game and and I think they will. He used to have pretty noisy hands you know and it

was it was it was a load where like his hands go up down back and like I thought it might be a

little bit disruptive but you know also guys like Junior Common Arrow can just make it work and it

doesn't matter but he is really simplified it now where it's pretty stagnant slight little load

and boom and he's on playing early I think that's a big reason why he's succeeding this way too.

He eliminated like the only variable in his swing and now he's just unleashing a really

efficient and really effective path very consistently so I think this guy by mid season updates

like we'll see we'll talk about it but like I'm not remembering the topic guys immediately

off the top ahead there might be a better candidate for this we'll see let's walk through it here

let's let me set us up for a thought exercise by July like our June update.

Can Leo DeVries be the number one prospect in baseball?

No but he can be two or three okay let's see let's see who gets in the way. Number eight

we'll not get in the way right and I know who you're gonna say gets in the way and I think it'll

be a fun conversation. Eight will not because he will graduate Sam Wolvesio the biggest thing for him

he's gonna catch maybe a little bit by some first base D.H. we'll see his job is to mash

and it's 70 power and I think he's gonna get into it right the biggest thing is like he

just chases too much and I think he does that because he feels like he can get to everything

and in spring training we saw him reign it in a lot and I look I know it's spring training

but for a guy like this I think it matters it's kind of the cags thing I know his

approach isn't like cags territory but in the big leagues it was he was chasing north of 50%

of fastballs and if you're chasing north of 50% of fastballs that's almost less concerning to

me because that's more of a mindset I think if you're chasing a ton of spin and your chase isn't

that high on fastballs I'm saying oh man you're not seeing that are you if you're chasing fastballs

as a young guy that is a what the best badball hitter in the minor leagues I'm saying all right you

just think you can get to everything now and you're just trying to you're trying to prove it kid huh

he's gonna always chase a little bit more against fastballs because he can freaking get to them

he had a great spring he rained it in chase wise against fastballs it was like 30% and then his

chase rate against spin was was like half of that that's fine that's the recipe right there

it's just about being a little bit more disciplined because he is going to get away with

fringy plate discipline and he's going to absolutely pulverize baseballs he not only hits them hard

again I was talking about the visual of like hard hit launch angle uh you know 90th percent

Alex velocity in contact rate like he was in a really unique spot on the plot as well given his

90th percent Alex velocity in hard hit launch angle yes the contact rates leave a little bit

to be desired but the out of zone contact rates help hedge that a little bit and like

he's just going to do so much damage so so much damage and it really is the the devers ask profile

that you just can't escape and a devers profile that with a guy that could catch a couple times per

week um and you know get by potentially at first basis is going to be a little bit more value but

I think they're really keen on developing this guy's catch rate especially is the the questions

continue to loom around addily rush minute and Sam will decide the last thing I'll mention before

I kick it to you is like watch him play through the years there's and I don't mean this in an

abundantly negative way there's a lot of youthful energy when you watch him play and I I think

I think and you see the approach at the big league level I think he's just a guy that's so

used to just going and competing because he's so freaking good at baseball that maybe the finer

things as it pertains to the catching side of things we're not as much of a focus and then when

you get to the big leagues that obviously change especially for a team that has aspirations to to

make a run in the playoffs I really think we're going to see a sample but not that he wasn't bought

in but there's just a different level of robotic buy-in that you have to do to be a big league catcher

I think we see that on a different level this year through the spring through this year and

if he's a 40 grade catcher slightly better than that with his bat you could justify having

him back there four days a week yeah I think there is there are a lot of similarities between

Samuel Bessio and the guy that I get to watch pretty much every night in Augustine Ramirez and

those two are very good friends and Augustine and Bessio worked out together in the DR in the

offseason and I asked Augustine about working out with Bessio and I asked him because like you're

very similar guys obviously you have similar goals but you're doing it in different teams

and this is on the heels of Bessio get an extended and he just feels like they push each other

defensively a lot if Samuel Bessio and Augustine Ramirez get to a point where they are both league

average defensively we're talking about two of the more dangerous catchers in Major League Baseball

and they could give you a frustrating 25 home or season where they hit 25 jacks but you start to

go gray a little bit because of maybe some of the swing decisions at points but also you see

the ball come off the bat and you hear the sound of the ball coming off the bat and you say

no catcher should be able to do that kind of thing you saw Francisco Alvarez do that in New York

yesterday like he's one of the very few catchers in baseball that can go top tank like that

I think Bessio and Augustine are two of those other guys and I'm excited to see how Bessio

takes steps defensively because power wise there are zero questions zero questions and I think

that's the one thing offensively that Bessio has maybe as an edge over Augustine Bessio just being

a left-handed hitter is that he's got the angles down I know that's been something that

Augustine was focusing on too and like Augustine's had the edge contact wise because the path is

a little bit more geared towards that whereas Bessio like he's optimized for launch and that's going

to give him a little bit higher that power ceiling but with Augustine showing that up too and you

talk about them working together right it's an exciting thing I think for Marlon's fans like

if that if Augustine can raise that hard hit launch angle a couple degrees it's a lot more pop

in that tank in terms of slug so it's exciting and I mean it could be an exciting thing for

Orioles fans too because Augustine is disciplined when it comes to fastballs right like he's not

he's not going to expand on fastballs much his problem is a little bit more spin related

there but with SIO like maybe Augustine can help Bessio rain it in a little bit on heaters

it's always funny when you talk about these two guys that work together it's like well what if

you could just combine them into one player you know then we've got maybe the best catcher in

baseball outside of Caliropa we always joke though at the Marlon's if you could just combine

the two guys they have internally Joe Mack and Augustine here you might have the best catcher

in baseball but yeah last thing on Bessio it's like an 80 on and so like even even if he's not

the best receiver if he's throwing guys out and he's not letting past balls get by again I think

he's got a good shot at that 40 glove yeah here's the guy that went dead central 425 feet away on

a ball that was two balls off the plate away JJ weather hole man that swing crazy like I know

JJ weather hole can cover everything but I expect that swing from weather hole to be a line drive

back up the box or like a maybe split the backside gap a pitch two balls off that you park dead central

that's some some different level of pop from JJ weather hole JJ is one of the best prospects in

baseball number seven because of the fact that he is you know such a pure hitter and such a good

at bat the other thing is while he's not going to play shortstop and I know people say like

that's indifference to difference to Mason win in part I think that he always profiled best

in second base you know weather hole or maybe third but at second base he's going to be in

above average defender so you have that layer as well if the power creeps coaster to 55 grade

now we've got a really really dynamic guy I've got 50 game power I still kind of think it's going

to be there but if you got 60 hit 70 plate discipline 50 game power and above average run and

and above average defender at second base you're going to accumulate a lot of war for a long time

a long time yeah JJ weather hole and Mason win should be what brings people back to bush stadium

this year because you get glimpses of the future also the burlison home or yesterday was a

thing of beauty and like that ballpark reacting to that guy swinging it like that it seems like

the next wave of cardinal baseball is here and it's burlison weather hole and win and then

Herrera as well obviously but I don't know like the vibe was better than I was anticipating it to be

in St. Louis yesterday and I called it my nap time game yesterday I apologize for that that's

the worst take maybe you've ever had I don't blame you for having it out of the gate that ended up

being the most insane game on the whole slate it was an awesome game man and weather hole was kind

of the kickstarter that taking rasmussen deep and rasmussen is freaking awesome so that was a good

picture making a good pitch and weather hole put an amazing swing on a bad ball so credit to

weather hole man and I'm really excited to see that up the middle tandem just blossom like grow

together yep a hundred percent and I think that that tandem up the middle just on the glove and

back to ball skills I mean I'm taking over over would you take over six and a half war combined

this year I would take over six this year and then I would push it to like seven next year I don't

six and a half is tough I feel like they might sit right at six and a half yeah I'm gonna I think

weather hole accumulation of defensive war at second base with the OPP skills and I think Mason

win slight step forward I'm gonna take over six and a half I think they get to like almost seven

but I I'm with you it's gonna be it's gonna be tough but again I regardless those guys should

bring people back to the ball games there in St. Louis and it's gonna be a fun young team even

if they don't win a ton of games yeah number six is eight and Miller filled off you Phillies Miller

banged up a little bit this year didn't get to see him in spring break out which sucked I didn't

get to see him much in spring training because of this back issue Phillies are downplaying it you

know you never really know how what what to assess you don't like to see a lingering back issue I

think it was something that was affecting him a little bit last year too so there is some concern

get that out of the way the way that he finished the year last year I we've talked about ad nauseam

right this is a guy that made some subtle changes to be on time for Velo and uh yeah final

50 games hit 453 640 against fastballs with an in-zone contact rate at 93% in an EV 90 of 108

moss per hour gonna usually bowed pretty well for you the the numbers against spin are not as great

it's kind of the romananth anything though where it's like he's gonna hit mistakes he's gonna maybe

the quality of contact takes a little bit of a hit against spin but his plate discipline and spin

wreck is so good that it's not gonna be as much of an issue as people make it out to be when you go

to the you know baseball SEVON page and see oh you know hit 180 against spin but yeah but like

he never chased it and he made you go back to the fastball most of the time so I think that is

gonna be a little bit of a restrictive aspect but nothing crazy and ultimately I think that that's

gonna be something that Miller continues to get better and better with and I think he we saw that

as he was longer through the zone um his timing was better and he wasn't as rushed from fastballs

the air pole is just something that's a knack for him uh like and then again chase rate of

17% this past season plus x of velocities good angles he's progressed into a plus defender

at shortstop and he's a menace on the base path what's the whole that you poke in a

Miller's game it would probably be quality of contact against spin which he immediately hedges

yeah I don't I don't know personally um I'm also just trying to make this jigsaw puzzle work

for the Phillies Alec Bohm with an opposite field homer that's you know slightly encouraging but

Bohm is the odd man out here so Miller albeit he's a he's a really good defensive shortstop at this

point like you probably have to defer to Turner for three or four more years so Miller is playing

third and then he pivots to short a little bit later but that's three short stops on the infield

there yeah started back in with Turner and shortened with uh with Miller at third and that is

modern baseball like that's where we're going right now where you just got a whole bunch of

short stops and centerfielders out there so uh we'll see what the Phillies do there but at this point

I'm done asking questions about Aiden Miller the player I'm asking questions about Aiden Miller

the fit on the Phillies team as they pursue a world series and then it just becomes the okay just

the slight dip off and you know dip in in quality of contact against spin rear it's head at the

big league level for the reasons that we laid out I don't think so um and then I think a third

base he's going to be like a plus plus go off potentially so really exciting I think it's just

more about the injury too it's like well how bad is the back thing is that going to linger but

otherwise I mean you've got impact across the board and the guy that can just help you win games

in so many different ways and really elongate this lineup like we're talking about in the

Carson benching he doesn't need to be full-fledged Aiden Miller to help this Phillies team um especially

when you look at the back of that lineup you absolutely can help this Phillies team um and just more

of this complimentary role as he gets his feet wet and a season where he doesn't turn 22 until

June 9th yeah we're going to get to the top five here in a moment before that one more quick break

all right cold Emerson is number five you've heard us talk about him a ton I'm just a huge fan

of his game another player who had a fantastic finish to the season we talked about the toe tap

ditching the big lead kick up and push forward toe tap keeps your center talk to the mariners about

it and Justin tool head director of player development you see validated that but also said

there was just some mental approach things as well that just really clicked for him and and and

helped Emerson you know just kick things into another gear so they rave about how he's ahead of his

years they rave about the defense and it's funny because I'm you know I'm asking about how much

better this guy got offensively in his age 19 season to reach AAA and then get up there and

you know for a handful of games continue to dominate there and what they wanted to keep

reminding me about is I think the biggest area of improvement for for cold was the glove um and

so hearing them say that I think was extremely encouraging as well were you saw Emerson as a guy

that was viewed by many as a candidate to slide over to third base he may do that to fit into this

big league jigsaw puzzle right now another team in world series mode however this is I still

think the heir apparent to JP Crawford at shortstop or you know I know it's we'll rave

about something right now or whatever it is but this is this is the next shortstop for the Seattle

mariners yeah it just may not be in 2026 but he has proven defensively to be able to hold it

down there and I think it's only going to get better and then the other side is final 50 games

between AA and AAA at 313 404 507 it's a 912 OPS 18% K rate in that span seven homers

he had 24 extra base hits and plus exit velocities great recognition to spin sweet left-handed swing

the speed has become a little bit more of a part of his game he's gotten quicker Emerson's just

another 55s across the board that you just you just can't find an issue with would anybody buy

a coal and cold t-shirt like a cool young Emerson you've had some good t-shirt ideas lately

yeah I'm thinking the coal and coal t-shirt or maybe just like a trendy euro like club like

coal COL and then it's just both of them standing back to back I've got I've got those ideas in

the tank right now like that that is the middle infield of the future for Seattle I'm excited to see

how they fit him in much like Aiden Miller I'm excited to see how a world series caliber team

fits in a guy like this there was an opening for Justin Crawford to play center field for the

Phillies like there was an opening for Koyong to play second base last year for the Mariners there's

like not a clear cut opening right now for the Seattle Mariners for cold Emerson to slide in there

like you just traded for Donovan he's gonna play third base yeah maybe Donovan goes to the outfit

I have no idea it's funny I kept saying on the just baseball show I think I've said it on here

I'm like I think the the path for Emerson is that you know Dominic can zone and and

Luke Rayleigh don't hit and they'll move Donovan over to the outfield in game one you got two

homers from can zone I think look Rayleigh Homer as well so Rayleigh Homer yeah yeah it's just one

game but I think that's the most realistic path I think the Mariners welcome that problem where both

of those outfielders are continuing to hit or Rayleigh more bouncing back can zone continuing to hit

and you visit it when you get there at the end of the day Emerson's barely played in AAA go

torch the PCL which he will do as a 20 year old and those things work themselves out and they'll

get an opportunity but there's clear runway in 2027 but he'll get his way up there one way or

another in 2026 I think for that team we get to number four I think this is the guy that you're

shaking your head saying this is why Leo DeVries will not be the number one prospect in baseball and

I can't really fault you I just think if anyone's got a shot Leo DeVries can give this guy run for

his money Hazus Maday Maday Hazus Maday another guy that you know I was able to get to that

Brewers camp we talked about that and you know sometimes you think you're just hearing more

just the general like you know especially the best shape of your life oh he showed up stronger

yeah who didn't you know I showed up stronger this year too I guess like I but it was different

with the Brewers guys right one I trust everything that tell me I don't think they're just pumping

their guys tires but when you hear like a eight a guy that was 17 at the start of last year

and we'll be 18 at the start of this year showed up to camp stronger you're like of course you could

just sleep every day and and hold naturally be stronger but days tangibly stronger and I think

that's abundantly evident and the spring training we've seen couple of things there number one those

are almost always things that you hear about guys that the industry may be down on not consensus

top 10 prospects in baseball before they turn 20 years old those guys don't need to be you know

alerting the media that they showed up in the best shape of their life usually it's the guys that

have like something to prove were some some stock to gain back that show up in the best shape of

their life and it's pretty well documented so there's no reason for the Brewers to say like oh look

at Maday yeah they don't need to upsell Maday it's not like it's gonna pig you're putting

lipstick on it like I'm already convinced yeah exactly I'm already convinced about Maday we're

good there the other thing is there have been some ugly swings that have produced like 105 EVs

and I'm just wondering if Hawkeye is off by 10 miles an hour or he's just that special

that's where I think the strength comes in so both Maday and Payne have been training stay

back on spin stay back on spin stay back on spin we talk about it a lot right you go from the DSL

70% fastballs and shitty breaking balls uh so like low A start to see decent amount of breaking balls

than high A you see a ton of breaking balls and double A you you almost see more than fastballs

that was the big thing for them right and that's all they trained for training but with with

Payne uh I think he was able to kind of find a way to stay back more but day is staying back

slightly more but for him it's just his hands are so out of this world like you you can't teach

that it's like if you can just stay back like 5% more and get a little bit stronger his B swing

is still 107 and I posted a couple of those where he's on his front side he's he looks like he

has nothing behind him and he flicks his hands and it's 107 on a line so he's kind of just defies

the rules right and that's what you're gonna get from Maday do you see the ball that he hit off Jamie

Arnold no did you see that by chance no I didn't one 13 at 16 degrees one

400 feet and the I think that was in the breakout game and that's the right reason he goes 400 feet

that's next level because it's 113 on a freaking line with backspin he wasn't quite popping those

last year um and he mentioned some of the B swings where it's 106 or there was another 111 11

um from the left side so we're getting like like multiple ways dude they're not B their C swings

some of these are yeah it's like 102 and it's looks like he's just waving at the ball

and that raises his floor significantly um and then the fact that we're getting 110 pluses from

both sides of the plate like the brewer said Maday was moving the bat faster than he was last year

and he's moving the bat faster than he was last year so yeah that's scary when you got a switch

hitter with plus power potential the big question with Madays just gonna be the glove and I can't

pretend to to fully know because this again it's so good offensively that you just don't know

like if the glove is gonna catch up or or if it's just it is what it is

again okay the pivot is katalmarte and that's what I keep going to but obviously he's gonna get

all the opportunity to prove he can stick a shortstop he's crewing a lead athlete and like

we'll see but that's gonna be the biggest question I think to what what the superstar type

ceiling is is a shortstop is in a second um this guy special I think some people might be saying

like why is he three I'll get into that when we get to three but I mean what a unique player

when you get a switch hitter with potential for 60 hit 60 power in above average plate discipline

and above average run like it's a superstar yeah the only reason I don't have him higher is that we

have a big league number two starter I think it's a right above him and I'm just gonna take that

right now like we just saw an elite closer um and I know elite like elite elite but earn the return

of Leo de Vries plus plus plus elite arms that like and I think I think McLean is like at the point

I know he isn't fully established but I think you can look at him and say like this is a like

a guy that's a budding elite arm and a well above average big league starter already I

rarely gonna say that about a guy that has prospect eligibility just seen more than enough

of of of Nolan McLean Nolan McLean it's uh and I I think this final start against team USA or

for team USA behind home plate I put out a video just trying to show people why he's so unique

and why it's such a miserable at bat for hitters and we saw that right like it's almost like

salish and people usually just say that for the funky lefties they don't really say it for the

righties and then we use it for like the wrong guys like Tanner Halk or whatever like it is just

he looks like he's throwing the ball from behind the right-handed batters box and then on top of that

your stuff needs to make that a benefit McLean's horizontal offset is crazy where he's getting a

ton of arm side run on the fastball so it's like looks like it's coming from behind you then looks

like it's gonna be on the inner half then runs back in on you like how do you pull the trigger on

that and then you get this sweeper that's getting 20 inches the other way again what do you do

about that and then he's got a slider a curve ball that looks like you know a plus pitch with

3,000 plus RPM and a splitter as well when you have the angles and it's also two different fastballs

it's got a four-semeral buzz at the top and then the sinker as well you've got all of these pitches

you have a deceptive angle you have a fuel to be able to kind of sequence them and and attack

in different ways the command continues to get better and better what's the what's the deficiency

for this guy I don't really know what what it what it could be no and honestly he added another

strength in the world baseball classic he's throwing hard as shit like he was 98 miles an hour he

was not that previously he was sitting what 95 96 and it was moving a ton but like that four

seamer at the top you're talking about that you can buzz it to the top rail if that's 99 that's

that's a whole nother wrinkle of Nolan McLean there he is and and the biggest piece of analysis

that I can give you the best piece of analysis that I can give you is Rob Friedman went on record

pitching ninja went on record of the world baseball classic saying he is my favorite pitcher to

watch in baseball pitching ninja makes a living watching the nastiest pictures in baseball and he

said he stands alone up top right now that's all you need to know man this guy's stuff is already

some of the nastiest that we have in this game the curveball like it might be one of the most like

it might break more than almost any breaking ball and and major league baseball from a start it's

incredible it's incredible it's incredible in average like almost 20 inches of horizontal and 16

inches of vertical how do you even land and spinning and it's spinning at 3,000 rpm's right yep

yep and then sweepers he's ripping sweepers north of 20 inches of horizontal pretty frequently

and then you have this gyro cutter slider situation that's shorter and he can command

then you have this four seam and sinker that have a pretty good amount of separation right like the

four seamers getting 12 inches of vert which is honestly decent from how low in horizontal his

releases and then the sinker is getting two inches of vert and so you're getting almost 10 inches

of vertical separation and then you're getting another like five or so of horizontal so those

fastballs are actually terribly different and then it gets even more offset from the the splitter

this guy's going to be really really good for a really really long time and I think by the end

of this year it could already be a top 30 pitcher in baseball yeah number two and one little suspense

let's just talk about Kevin McGonagall's debut I don't need to how many times have I told people

if you've been listening to the show for a couple years now you might almost be sick of me talking

about if you've been listening to the show for for a month you might be sick of it we've been

talking about him forever forever he was a number one project for us for a while until

Connor Griffin came along even that was difficult

McGonagall what first game four knocks like does anything surprise you there

I don't know what the scouting report is to try to beat this guy we talk about hard hit launch

angle contact rate and EV he was the most unique on the scatter plot because he I mean the

contact it's a 70 hit it's above average raw power and then or above average game power because

he his average launch angle on hard hit balls is north to 20 degrees so that's like one of the

higher that'd be like 95th plus percent time major league baseball and then most of those guys are

huge with guys because anybody that's so much loft how do you have that much loft but then make

that much contact and like how do you marry those two things that's why I made that plot I just

wanted to see nobody everybody else in that range of of contact rate was like average hard hit

launch angle of like nine degrees like less than half because you're gonna be flatter to make

that much contact to be that lofty but also that consistently contact oriented

and above average EVs is just unicorn stuff it's it's an ability to to maneuver the barrel

that you can't teach and we've seen that but it's just leveled up and leveled up and leveled up and

now we're seeing the the the the form of it where everyone's talking about chase ugly

he's more powerful I'm not saying he's gonna have a better career than him but if we're talking

about like upside comp from a production standpoint I I think it looks more like Robbie can know

I love that there are very few guys that are built like this and he's he's 5.11 a buck 90 he

looks 5.10 like he does not look like a big person like a tall person but he's built like a

fire hydrant the build and this is unfair because he's 5.11 now I'll two base 5.6 but it's a little

more out too bayish than I think just like a classic short second basement the compact swing

is amazing to watch it wasn't the first double that jumped out to me the first double was amazing

and it was a two run double for his first big league hit his first big league RBI it was awesome

it was the second one and I don't know if you saw it but it was I think a lead off double

against pavetta slammed off the top of the wall down the right field line like right in the corner

106 at 23 degrees and this is the number that I want to point out and I literally never point this

out hang time on that 3.2 seconds it got to the wall in 3.2 seconds and I was watching it and I was

like that ball had no business carrying the way it did or like getting to the wall as quickly as

it did it was just amazing to watch like that tight and compact a swing or hit a ball that hard

and that low of a line drive that still might have gotten out there's a home run in two ball parks

and it was 3.2 seconds he squares everything up and then either the pitches at like

maybe he gets doesn't fully hit on the nose to where they're probably almost knuckling because he

hits it so square it's that backspin where it just keeps going and keeps going just never like gravity

doesn't quite do its thing and and I just think that's where he is a just a unicorn type of a hitter

and then I love him a third like I really think he's gonna end up progressing into a really solid

third basement there not might just be his long term home like I think you can plug in it short

and get by there and be an average shortstop I think people were fully like abandoning that for him

too quick but you know I think it could be a really really solid third basement I don't think there's

any question about him being able to slug enough to handle third base either but you know also a guy

that still has the ability I think to be an average shortstop yeah to hit balls on that line like

that but then also be able to just have an average launch where it's it's you know high in the air

with backspin and the never punch and have the play discipline that he has like he said after the

game he's like I have the mentality then I'm better than the guy on the mound and like you know for

a rookie to say that and feel that is is usually a big task and like but he's right 98% of the time

he's going to be right even as a rookie in this game and that's so badass I think I loved that

that guy said that after his his MLB debut not before but not before yeah I think I'm better

yep so that's better than everybody Connor Griffin's number one I'm happy for the folks in

Indianapolis they get a special talent you know back-to-back years here Griffin but we talked about

it a little bit off the top and on the last episode like I think and I saw Keith Law said this

on foul territory that the pirates felt like they wanted Connor Griffin to win the job they weren't

going to give it to him and you know I get that that you can also be a little bit of just like

verbiage should justify the decision but I wouldn't say Connor Griffin outright won the job so

I think I think that's fair yes he he saw it for homers but yeah there was a little bit of aggression

in the box at points I obviously chased a lot of sliders in a small sample relative to what we

saw from him last year and I'm sure he was pressing a little bit but I think when you see a guy

you know and also he finished like over like eight or nine and it was punching a little bit more

a lot of the production came early I can understand it I go I go back to the best foot forward

for the pirates was Connor Griffin up there if you're trying to maximize wins from day one I think

however they have a lot of things they still need to figure out like what who is Nick Gonzalez

for you who had an ice game on opening day where is Jared Triollo worth you know having a more

consistent you know spot for I think like they got to figure that out you don't want to just

relegate those guys to the bench immediately and I know that sounds silly when we're talking about

Connor freaking Griffin here but if Connor Griffin was kicking down the door maybe sounds a little

bit sillier and then I think the PPI aspect is where I think the pirates said look we're gonna roll

the dice on the PPI pick here yes Connor Griffin is the best prospect that's prospect doesn't correlate

to big league production right away look at this rookie class we got a couple guys that already

got a taste of the big leagues we have a guy that's established big league starter already uh

whether holds the highest floor you know guy we've seen in a while in the national like so there

was all these factors and I think they're just like it's gonna be hard for Griffin to win the

rookie of the year the PPI could be you know really hard to attain this year what's guaranteed

the year of service and I don't think they're thinking a skeens think can happen again because

this good as Griffin is well harder to get the late start as a hitter and I think like just just

dominate to where you're lapping everybody else if we if yesterday was any indication McClain

should be considered a front runner for the uh NL rookie the award whether holds should be

considered uh a favorite for the NL rookie the year award and then bench should be considered

there as well so you've got three guys right there and south and south Stewart and you have to

take into consideration that it's the top two that will get a full year so if he's down for a month

and those guys all hit the ground running you probably look at those four and say hmm two of them

are going to finish I had a conner Griffin so it's not like you're rooting against the guy but

you're putting yourself in a position to get seven years of big league time out of him and you turn

him into a super two guy so um yeah I we'll see what happens with counter Griffin like honestly when

I saw the fastball numbers in spring training this was an easier pill for me to swallow it's like okay

you know what I get it to a certain extent like he struggled with heaters if I'm not mistaken

in spring training uh I think it was yeah yeah he gets sped up at times and then I think it really

caused him to cheat for the sliders and he just never really got on time for that right okay you

know it was a lot of chase and whiff on side it's small sample so I feel like it's a little bit of

an nitpick but you know from the at bats I watched at least like you have to really just go more

visual in spring training like you just have to and it just you looked a little bit sped up I get it

like the long season I still think their best foot forward was starting in there if you said

they have to win the maximum amount of games this year yeah you put conner Griffin on the opening

there us but that's never going to be the leading decision maker even if you are trying to win now

counter Griffin the play when it's all said and done this is I think the one guy that has a chance

to to to reach heights of of a Bobby what junior type like right where we're talking about no

prospects we've seen in the last couple of years like you know I love Roman Anthony and I think

we were higher on him than than anybody on the prospect side right I mean like we have I think

we're the only out with Adam had a rookie Sasaki going into the year but with the way conner

Griffin can impact the game it's just different man like we're talking and it's not like he's

you know I think going to come with a huge amount of whiff to I think there's still some

hit tool questions I think ultimately he proved that he could close that gap at every level last

year I still think he's gonna end up because he hits them all so hard and get it still succeeding

against all pitch types great out as like that slightly higher whiff than you expect but plus hitter

from the batting average standpoint the plates discipline looks like it's gonna progress to plus

it looks like you'd be a 70 power guy once it's all said and done like reminder conner Griffin

is still 19 years old for another month um he's a plus plus runner the glove at short stop looks

like he could be plus or better like it is I don't know if he fully reaches that wit plateau

but it's that Bobby what starter kit that you're like even if he gets 70% of the way there like

that's a guy that he's gonna make 200 million dollars so that that's why he's the number one

process even if even if the the offense isn't fully fully come together he's gonna hit a lot of

homers he's gonna be a menace on the base patting to be extremely valuable defensively yeah

makes sense man he's probably the x-factor for the pirates this year too given their defensive

limitations and the the layer that he could bring to the lineup brother what is it with

only a cruise in opening weekend man it's got issues on opening weekend I do not know I do not

know hopefully he can settle in and center field a little bit but yeah I mean not often you get to

see 70 game power potential in 70 Ron you know with with with the 60 glove and 50 plus hit on you

know it's just it's a rare talent and I'm really excited I think Griffin's gonna have a really

nice you know month and triple A and he's gonna force their hand and it'll be quick and who knows

he might they might end up getting schemes again where this guy is just so freaking good he

laps everybody from a war perspective it's possible so I think if you're the pirates you're

rooting hard for some of these young guys on these other teams to to keep going off in the

national league out of the gate and they're probably happy with the start uh that some of these guys

had that'll do it for the top 100 breakdown we get a lot of fun stuff ahead you know once the

rosters are finalized in the minor leagues we'll be talking about you know the top minor league teams

that we're looking out for I'm working on my uh breakout candidates I think I'm gonna do one

for each team this year so we're gonna do national league American league um you know breakout

prospects from each team that's gonna be really fun and then plenty of other fun programming things

ahead player interviews will start to trickle back in in the coming weeks as well jack any final

thoughts I don't think so no this is uh this is as fun at top 100 breakdown as I think we've done

like Roman and Sasaki at the top going into last year was really fun but this is I don't know like

there are just a bunch of guys with a ton of juice here in the top like honestly 75 to 80 it's

it's crazy uh and I think it's gonna look a lot different in three months and that's all really

excited about as well because there's a lot of exciting young talent on the way um and we'll be

updating in a few months so look forward to that team top prospectus continuing to come out to

pie all right cardinals will be published very soon but it was not far behind that um so keeping

out for that those will be episodes of course as well as always thank you for listening hope you

enjoyed it if you could subscribe share the show with your friends I really appreciate it uh subscribe

to the youtube leave a rating join our discord it's been fun in there uh a lot of fun prospect

insight stuff like that and early access to a lot of different things that we're putting out

have a great weekend hope you enjoyed opening day enjoy opening weekend and we will talk to you next week

if you're a podcast host listen up this one's for you my name is allie jackson i'm the host of

finding mr. height a dating and relationship podcast that i've been doing for four years now

sharing my positive and practical approach to dating that's built on my own life experience and i

wanted to share another experience that i've had my secret behind monetizing my show it's called

and i was just telling my colleague about how much i love their platform with red circle not only

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align with your show you can vet every opportunity and their platform gives you great analytics more

recently too my red circle team has brought me opportunities outside of my podcast on social media to

really augment the podcast partnerships bring them full circle i just can't recommend them enough if

you want to give it a try go to red circle dot com to get your free trial that's red circle dot com

for a free trial if you're a podcast host listen up this one's for you my name is allie jackson i'm

the host of finding mr. height a dating and relationship podcast that i've been doing for four

years now sharing my positive and practical approach to dating that's built on my own life experience

and i wanted to share another experience that i've had my secret behind monetizing my show it's

called red circle and i was just telling my colleague about how much i love their platform with red

circle not only am i getting a seamless hosting experience but i also love the support i receive in

ad sales it's not just typical ad sales either it's targeted opportunities based on my show and my

life and the platform is super simple you just set your preferences and red circle matches you

with sponsors that align with your show you can vet every opportunity and their platform gives you

great analytics more recently too my red circle team has brought me opportunities outside of my

podcast on social media to really augment the podcast partnerships bring them full circle i just

can't recommend them enough if you want to give it a try go to red circle dot com to get your free

trial that's red circle dot com for a free trial