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552: Terrible—Home Sales Now Worst Since 2009
About this Episode
In this power-packed episode, Keith delivers a masterclass on the current real estate landscape, blending personal insights with market-changing trends. From the nuanced world of home flooring to the pulse of national housing markets, Keith breaks down complex real estate dynamics into actionable intelligence.
The episode reveals a market at a critical inflection point: declining home sales, shifting apartment dynamics, and emerging investment opportunities. Keith provides listeners with a strategic roadmap to navigate these changes, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and informed decision-making.
Exclusive Takeaway: Get Rich Education offers free investment coaching to help you turn these insights into wealth-building action. Your real estate success journey starts here.
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Complete episode transcript:
Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai
Keith Weinhold 0:00
Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, there's been a real estate tragedy in my family. Then this past month, national home sales have plummeted to their worst level since 2009 then something is happening in the market for apartment buildings that shocked everybody and more all today on get rich education.
Speaker 1 0:24
Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guessing the top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast, sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com
Speaker 2 1:09
You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.
Keith Weinhold 1:25
welcome to GRE from Montreal, Quebec to Montrose, Michigan and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back inside get rich education here in our 11th year, you're listening to one of America's longest running the most listened to shows on real estate investing, indeed, the 552nd consecutive week before we delve into the sad topic of terrible national home sales, the worst since 2009 which is a serious topic, first, a bit More of a light hearted topic, a real estate tragedy of sorts, has taken place inside my family, right inside my parents home, the same home that I grew up in. And you know, it's been a while since I had a good rant in an episode. So before we get to our core content today, my parents just replaced the nice, plush, warm, soft, inviting wall to wall carpets in both of their living rooms with laminate, hardwood floor. Oh no, this is disastrous. I mean, this is an abject property atrocity right in the home that I grew up in. Now, if you're a longtime listener, you know what I'm talking about. If you're newer here, it's probably been a couple years since I mentioned it. You know, everyone has their own quirks and idiosyncrasies, like you have certain ways of thinking about some things in your life, where you just know that you're in the minority of society with how you behave with that thing. Yeah, there are some things that you're counter cultural on. It's part of your unique personality, and it's what makes you you, well, one of my real estate idiosyncrasies and unorthodoxies is that I love deep, plush carpet, not hardwood floor, and hey, I don't expect you to agree with me on this. It's what makes me different. Now we'll talk about the flooring that you choose to use in your rental units in a moment and compare their prices and when you might want to use those things and when you don't. But we're just talking about home here, the flooring that you live on your primary residence. Why would anyone replace carpeting with hardwood, plank flooring? It is uninviting. It is cold, hard, and it even transfers noise more than quiet, comfortable, plush carpeting. And yes, hardwood floors can be heated. And some homeowners do that. They use what are called radiant heating systems, and they are installed beneath the floor, and these systems use either electric cables or sometimes mats or hydronic tubing, which are pipes filled with hot water in order to radiate that heat upwards into the floor. Now, something like that is what you'd be more likely to do in your own home, and not a rental unit, but even if you do that, hard floors are still, well, hard and noisier, like I just don't get it deep, plush carpet is superior. I'm not talking about the shag carpet that was popular 50 years ago, just plush carpet that hit its peak. In the 1990s Oh yes, that is the stuff I'm telling you. I mean plush carpet. That is the stuff that turns a house into a home. Well, my parents did just the opposite. They turned their home back into a house. Oh, dear. And, hey, it's their home. They can do whatever they want. Now, what are the main reasons that I hear about why people prefer laminate, hardwood flooring or luxury vinyl plank flooring over carpeting? That's what the majority of people want to do, and that's not what I want. Well, one reason, and this is the main reason that my parents did it, is that it looks nicer. In their opinion, looks nicer. I don't get it at all. I mean, even most cheap $1,000 apartments have been using like hardwood, plank flooring for close to 25 years now, there's nothing special about the way that it looks. Most of it anyway, some of it can look pretty cool. Now, some people want the hardwood because, well, they say that it's easier to clean. Easy to clean. Why in the world would you have trouble keeping your own home clean? I mean, if there's any space in the world that you keep clean, it is your humble abode. Now I know that it's easier for me to say that because I don't own any pets and still don't have kids, maybe you do replacing carpet for hard flooring is just an unspeakable act. What an uncalled for abhorrence, a repugnance. Other reasons that people say they prefer hardwood or vinyl plank over carpet is that it is allergy friendly. All right. Well, I don't have any trouble with allergies. But here's the thing that's even more confounding, most people that install a hard flooring. Well, the next thing that they do, and this is exactly what my mom and dad say that they're going to do next now that they put the hardwood floor in, is find some area rugs and cover it up so people put carpet on top of the hardwood floor anyway, but then yet, that carpet cannot be plush and padded underneath like real Carpet would be, because it's just like a piece that's rolled out, plus it cancels out, then all these pet friendly and allergy free benefits, plus it might be even harder to clean, because now you got to clean both the carpet and the edges of the room where the stupid hardwood flooring is showing I mean, it makes zero sense, so this just all compounds how I am confounded on how almost everybody in the world, it seems they want hardwood floor. I feel like I'm the only person in the world sticking up for carpeting. I do not expect you to agree with me here. It is just my, I guess, oddball preference. I also do a lot of exercises down on the floor. That's where the best high intensity interval training workouts take place. Down on the floor. Plush carpet is best for that too. Oh, the myriad reasons that carpet is superior, I'll tell you. Well, I'll next be staying at my parents place in two months, as I'll spend a lot of July there, and that's when I will first be witness to this transgression, this incomprehensible abomination. I mean, it is almost malfeasance.
The reason that I care more about this than most sons of parents would is that my parents have lived in the same home since I was age one. I have a lot of memories there, and when I visit my parents in rural upstate Pennsylvania, I sleep in the same exact bedroom that I have since age one. Really special continuity there. What's more important than the flooring changing in the two living rooms is that, like I've told you before, I won the parent lottery, I did not have an affluent upbringing, but my brother and I had a top 1% childhood anyway, because we have two married, committed parents that are still together, still healthy and loved us. I phone my parents at least weekly, and I send them messages all the time. I guess it's a good time to think about that as this is the last episode before Mother's Day, and if you did not win the parent lottery, like I did in the way that I just described. Well, the good news is that you can do something about it. You can provide that same stable, nurturing environment to your children, and that way, they will win the parent lottery. Now, when it comes to. My rental properties, I do have hardwood flooring virtually everywhere and in every property, from single family rentals up to apartment buildings, because I don't have to live on it now, I probably do have some bedrooms in those rentals where there's carpeting, yeah, I mean hard floors that makes sense for the durability in a rental. I mean, with rentals, you might have to replace the carpet every three to five years. That is cost prohibitive. So for real estate investing, hardwood flooring, which, again, it's really a trend that became widespread in America about 25 years ago. I mean, that trend was really good for real estate investors. Tenants actually prefer this intolerable condition, perhaps much like you do. Now let me talk about five main types of flooring, how much they cost per square foot, and where you might want to use different flooring types in different situations, as we've already established. For me, it is carpet, carpet, carpet, wall to wall, everywhere, except for kitchens, bathrooms and maybe the laundry room. Seriously, though, for you and how you want to think about this and these prices include the total for both the material and the installation is for hardwood plank flooring, which is that atrocity that my parents committed. Expect to pay about $25 per square foot. And of course, all these costs are going to vary based on the wood species, the finish and the part of the world that you're in for LVP, luxury vinyl plank that's about $8 installed. LVP is a good choice because it mimics the hardwood esthetics. It's waterproof, and as you can see there, its cost is less than half of that of hardwood plank. So LVP can be a good choice for bathrooms and maybe a kitchen, and though the name luxury might be cheapened or diluted somewhat in that name, LVP, it's a bit over named. I suppose it's that that name is given to help distinguish it from vinyl flooring. Because when you hear the term vinyl flooring, what do you think of you think of sheets, something that comes in a roll in sheet vinyl only costs maybe about $5 installed. And then carpeting installed, my favorite at home, but not in rentals that costs about $6 per square foot. And then the last major flooring type is tile, and the cost of tile is really all over the place because of its different material types. Tile can be made of so many things, going from cheapest to most expensive ceramic. That's about $20 per square foot. Again, this is the cost installed for both the materials and the time it takes to install it, porcelain, 20 to 25 natural stone tile can be 40 bucks or more, and then glass tile can be a little more expensive than that, yet. So those are the approximate prices for your flooring, what you can expect to pay because, of course, plank flooring and tile, it doesn't have to be replaced as often as carpet and sheet vinyl. That's something to keep in mind when you think about those prices. But yeah, I have bought apartment buildings before, where, when I bought it, every unit was carpeted, and then as each tenant moved out, one by one, I would have my property managers contractor replace it with hard plank flooring, the radiant heat that you'd place beneath hard flooring that I described earlier, that is cost prohibitive to put in a long term rental in almost every case, that's something you'd only want to do in your own home, or maybe, just maybe a luxury short term rental in a cold climate, Like a ski resort town or something like that. So yes, you have now learned about one of my odd quirks, and you've learned about flooring types. Another of my idiosyncrasies is my preference for back scratching rather than massages. But that has nothing to do with real estate, and we've got more important topics to move on to heck. Come on, though, you might have some weird quirks, even more weird than mine. In fact, maybe real estate investors in general have more quirks than mainstream society. Because, you know, real estate investing is a little countercultural itself, right? We own things that pay us to own it every month with mainstream society and 401, KS, you have to pay it with every paycheck. Now. Who in the heck would do that?
The title of this week's episode has to do with the fact that spring existing home sales are now at their worst level since two. 2009 the worst in all that time. Now, and understand when I say home sales, that means the volume of sales, the number of transactions. We're not talking about the prices now, the outlook for home prices is also less rosy now as well. I'll get to that shortly. But why are the number of property transactions at their lowest level in 16 years like this? Let's listen in to Diana Olick at CNBC. She's talking about March, but that's the newest month reported. You got to remember that real estate stats run in arrears more so than most essay classes. This report is a real bellwether for the spring housing market and how this year could turn out. This is a little over a minute, and then I'll be back to comment.
We also have some housing data just cross the tape. Diana olik Has that for us. Diana, Well, David, existing home sales in March fell a much wider than expected, 5.9% from February to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.0 2 million units sales down 2.4% from March of last year, and that is the slowest March sales pace since 2009 the Great Recession. Now remember, this count is based on closing, so its contracts likely signed in January and February, when mortgage rates were over 7% but it was before the market volatility of April, supply is rising fast, 1.3 3 million units for sale at the end of March, up nearly 20% from the year before. That makes a four month supply, which is still on the lean side. Six months is considered a balanced market. More inventory and slower sales are starting to put the chill on prices. The median price of an existing home sold in March was $403,700 that's still an all time high for the month, but it's only up 2.7% from last March, and that annual comparison is shrinking. First time, buyers made up 32% of the market, the same as last year, they should be around 40% all cash dropped to 26% from 28th the year before, but investors house steady at 15% of sales. Sarah, all right, have a bad combo, weaker sales, higher prices. Diana, thank you very much. Diana Olek.
okay, we just learned that the latest month shows the slowest spring housing market for that month since 2009 and that the supply of available homes is up 20% since last year. All right? Well, if the supply of homes is up, then why is the volume of sales down? Well, it's the same reasons that we've had for a couple years soured affordability and the ongoing lock in effect, and that soured affordability is just more set in I hope you caught it. Note that this 16 year low in sales volume is for existing homes, okay, brand new home sales are healthier. The nation is still undersupplied of housing Overall, though, with four months of supply, of course, six months is that balance point. Now, the worst news here, with this low sales volume is not affecting the homeowner or the investor. It is affecting the renter somewhat more, because they're having to stay as renters. But it's really tough. Just horribly bad news for people that are in the business of home sales, like realtors and other agents. Mortgage lenders are losing business too. So are title insurers, moving truck companies, furniture companies, and for those consumers in the market to buy and sell homes. It's actually troublesome news for society. Less residential mobility means less economic mobility and more people stuck in place. And how are we going to get Americans moving again? It is lower mortgage rates. It's probably not going to come from a substantial lowering of prices. Prices keep rising, as you heard in that clip, up 2.7% year over year, but as we look out in future months, you know, I can feel it. Price growth seems to be flattening out. Zillow and some other agencies have lowered their home price appreciation forecast for the year, I really keep up on this stuff in research, in my estimate is that the consensus is that there will be zero to 2% home price growth this year. That's not me saying that. That's me amalgamating what others say, and they don't always get it right, and this year still has a long way to go, but you know, there is just this sort of general malaise in the real estate market where there's not a lot of activity for primary residence buyers. In that clip, you heard that investor purchases are steady, constituting 15, one 5% Of home purchases, just like they did in the previous period. So that's what a low sales volume means, and that's who is affected. It is not a vibrant market out there. I still don't see anything on the horizon that could make home prices jump as much as 10% this year, not even substantially lower mortgage rates could do that. In my opinion, tariffs impact to construction costs over the next few months. You know, it's probably quite a bit less than you think. The prevailing current view among the number of developers for now is that construction costs will increase between one and 3% on wood frame builds. And wood frame builds that represents the vast majority of apartment and build to rent projects and now that one to 3% that's by no means immaterial, but it's also not some crazy surge like some headlines have suggested. So as you're out there listening to media reports on the housing market, as you can see, you've got to listen closely to what you're being told. The volume of sales and the median price are two very different things, and they're both moving in different directions, sales down, price up, also the existing home market and the new build home market are, of course, different, but you got to listen closely sometimes in order to pick that up. That also helps to be attentive to if you hear that new build prices are falling, you got to think about what that means, because in recent years, builders have responded to weak affordability by building smaller homes to try to make them more affordable, so they might be selling for actually more money on a square footage basis, even though their price is lower, it's because the homes are smaller. And then another thing is, when you hear that sellers are cutting prices, be attentive to what that really means. For example, say that median home values in an area are 450k and if a seller advertises a perfectly median home for 475k therefore it's a little overpriced, and say it doesn't sell in a month, and then they drop the price to 460 and sell it for that well, then what they've done is that they cut the price, yet at the same time, they moved the median price up from 450 to 460 so despite a price cut, that was about a 2% gain in sale price there in That example, that is how a price cut results in moving up in areas median price. So there's a lot to be attentive to when you look at news like that. As volatile as stocks have been lately, a lot of people are grateful to have their dollars invested in really stable real estate. When Stocks are volatile, the rent just keeps coming in. In fact, in a let's look at history over hunch's vein, when stocks crash, which all define as a loss of 20% or more, what happens to home prices now, a while ago, here on the show, I discussed what historically happens with home prices during recessions. But this is different. This is what happens during stock market crashes, because the stock market is not the economy. Aside from the one bad mortgage blow up of a housing market induced economic recession from 2008 to 2010 which was bad. Home prices do not go down when the stock market crashes. In fact, real estate prices usually rise when stocks plunge hard. Let's look at the five other times that this has happened since 1980 and we'll take the S, p5, 100 index high to its low. All right, in november of 1980 the S P was at 135 points. And doesn't it sound funny to say that that sounds like a ridiculously small number? Yes, the S P was at 135 points. Then by August of 1982 almost two years later, it tanked to 109 during that time, home prices went up 7.2% then in the late 80s, it was August of 1987 the S P was at 329. In November of that year, it fell to 245, I mean, that was a massive stock drop of almost 35% in just about three months, the result, home prices went down 1.7% but that happens almost every year, from summer to late autumn. In August of 2000 the S P was at 1485 by February of 03 it went down to 803 37 I mean, that was a major stock crash. During that time, home prices went up 11 and a half percent, and then we got into COVID. Times, March of 2020, 3277 was the level April of 2020, just a month later, down to 2653 home prices went up 2.1% during that month. And then finally, December of 2021, 4675 October of 2022, 3726 that was a big stock market drawdown during that time, home prices went up 5.3% so there you go. The stable nature of real estate is something that's a really valuable attribute during massive stock market drops. And I think there are a lot of people that don't realize that since World War Two, home prices have only fallen significantly one time, and it was that awful period around 2008 now, in fact, you know something interesting related to this, last month, I took that cog railway tour that goes to the top of Pikes Peak in Colorado. You might have taken that train before. It's pretty popular. It's a nice way to spend an afternoon. Well, on that cog railway tour, I got talking to a passenger. He was there with his wife and family, and this was an intelligent, professional guy. He worked in the VE printing space, so he was pretty interesting to talk to. I asked him about that. And this guy, this passenger on the train, he asked me about real estate, once he knew that that's my field. He said the strangest thing to me, but I think a lot of people think this way. He asked me, don't real estate prices have a 10 year cycle? They have a price correction and go down every 10 years, and then the values start going back up again. What I didn't laugh in this guy sure wasn't stupid. I mean, hey, he's in the 3d printing space, and maybe I have some misconceptions about his field too. But it's almost as unlikely that home prices will fall appreciably than that grocery store prices would fall significantly. Both things really unlikely. I don't know how people think things like this.
To summarize what you just learned in this segment, hardwood flooring in the living room is an abomination of inhumane proportions. Existing home sales volume hit low levels not seen since 2009 home prices are still rising, but the pace of that growth is slowing, and when the stock market takes a big hit, real estate historically performs well most of the time. We're talking about residential real estate in the one to four unit space so far coming up a trend in the larger apartment building world that shocked a lot of experts. That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.
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Speaker 3 29:53
This is the king of commercial real estate, Dolph de Roos. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And don't Quit your Daydream.
Keith Weinhold 30:10
Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, being springtime, it's also graduation time. If you're looking for a gift idea for a graduate, consider doing what I did. My niece is about to graduate from high school. That's my brother's oldest daughter. I gave her two gifts, cash plus gold cash because, I mean, come on, any 18 year old wants something that they can use. You want to give them something that they want. But I gave gold as well, not because it's in a massive bull market right now, which it is, but saving that can help her tangibly see and understand the diminished purchasing power of the dollar over time. Be mindful, dollars are just currency, but gold is money. So yes, I like my niece, but apparently not enough to give her a little rock turnkey property. As we know, wannabe homeowners have been roughed up with poor buyer affordability that started around 2022 they must either patiently wait for Mr. Beast to give them a home, or they need to keep renting apartment demand just could not keep up with 2023 and 2020 four's massive surge in new apartment construction that left a lot of units vacant. It meant that any new renters were quickly absorbed, and as a result, rent growth stayed flatter than a soda left open for a week. Builders overachieved, and renters under showed back then, but in 2025 and 2026 new apartment construction deliveries are going to keep falling from their peak even in 2027 that's probably going to happen. And we can already project this, because it takes two years, basically, to build an apartment from permitting to completion and permits are down. The dynamics of the apartment market are pretty straightforward. It takes around two to three months to turn permits into construction starts, and then it takes an additional 19 months to complete and deliver new units. So that's the two years or so that I'm talking about. The past high housing starts have therefore shown up as completions here. In recent months, the high completions are predominantly in southern states, and that's exactly why apartment rents have been falling in places like Atlanta, Charlotte, Tampa, Dallas and Austin. Even though those are the places that people are moving to, oppositely in California, it is especially tough to get permits, and tougher even yet to get apartments completed, there will be acute housing shortages in California. If recent past trends hold, then homelessness is going to be an ongoing problem. Moderate income workers cannot make ends meet, and therefore they're going to leave the state, California simply needs to build more housing to reduce the homeless problem and help out the moderate income workers. The real surprise is that today, national demand for apartments keeps coming in at high levels that defy even the most bullish forecasts. Real page recorded the best first quarter for net absorption in more than 25 years. It was 138,000 units. Costar called it the second best q1 in more than 25 years with 128,000 units. And now those numbers don't mean much to you until you realize that this century apartment demand absorption, you know, is typically in a range of 30 to 80,000 units per quarter, and we're looking at double, triple or quadruple that now. And what all that really means is that there is a surprisingly healthy level of well qualified demand for US apartments. All right, so this net absorption that I'm talking about, which is move ins minus move outs, that being over 100,000 units like this, that's something that you might see in busier leasing seasons, like towards summer q2 and q3 but rarely in q1 and apartment demand. It came in hot in nearly every region of the country. So what is going on here? What are the reasons for this surging apartment demand? I mean, sure, for one, it's the one that you already realized. Eyes, fewer people can buy houses. But it's more than just fewer people can buy houses, it's also, if you build it, they will come. I mean, cranes have dotted skylines in US cities for the past few years, apartment construction soared. It's also wage increases. They have outpaced inflation, and both of those have outpaced apartment rent growth, helping with affordability. Another reason for surging apartment demand are those baked in demographics. We had this surge in US births from 1990 to 2010 and that means that think about the age that they are now. That means this group is hitting peak. Let me get out of my parents house age. A whole lot of Netflix accounts are being split into those. People are moving out and getting an apartment. Well, with this in mind a surge of apartment demand in fewer new apartments being built over the next two years. You know, you think about what this means for a while here I've discussed how in real estate, today's best opportunities are one to four unit turnkey properties, especially new builds and also burr properties. I mean, those things have been the MVPs of this cycle, and you keep finding those properties and buying them at GRE marketplace, but apartment buildings, I mean, they're probably warming up in the bullpen by now, I might be able to add those to the mix soon, and to add those to the list about where the opportunity is, because apartment building values have been suppressed Ever since mortgage rates spiked in 2022 but it's probably not time to swing the bat quite yet. Of course it is in some cases. There are always some exceptions, but when you look around today, you know you got to consider apartment landlords. They still got to commonly offer concessions to fill their rent rolls. They're having to give away a free month's rent here and waived some fees over there. But demand, you know, it really tangibly, is starting to catch up with supply now, and when it comes to rent growth, it's still been pretty pathetic for apartments. Okay, apartments still lag behind single family rentals. Now apartment rents, they're only up a week, 1.1% year over year. Really weak. That's the latest figure, a paltry 1.1% apartment rent growth less than inflation then, and that's per real page market analytics, incredibly that 1.1% is actually the highest apartment rent growth rate in 21 months. So the bottom line here is that the apartment market, it has been through the wringer. They've been beaten up by rate hikes and drowned in supply and ghosted by demand. But finally, after years of gloom, the clouds are starting to part for apartment buildings, supply slows and demand grows here at get rich education, you know, I'm trying to give you the knowledge in the tools that I wish I had when I began, where the opportunities are, how to think about real estate, how to know about how you get paid. I mean, knowing all that sooner really would have made my life easier, like frameworks through which to understand real estate investing and the resources so that you can make it actionable and build your real estate portfolio. You'll notice that our provider network at GRE marketplace has recently expanded, and perhaps the best tool of all, that's our free in house investment coaching. We make it easier and hold your hand through the process of buying your first investment property. If you're a more experienced investor, our coaching helps you assess and evaluate the GRE Income Property inventory and help you decide which geographies seem to be most conducive to your goals, and of course, find that real estate pays five ways. Kind of property. Don't let uncertainty prevent you from taking action, because GRE coaching is free access those off market deals. There's no agent that has to be compensated. You'll get free help along your journey, from making the offer, submitting your earnest money, inspection, appraisal, your management agreement, what your closing day is like, and more or perhaps the coaching will help you decide that it's not the right time for you to add income property based on your own unique circumstances. We help you do it all and make it easy. I often like to leave you with something actionable for a free GRE investment coaching Strategy Session customized just exactly to you. Start at GREinvestment coach.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.
Speaker 4 40:03
Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.
Keith Weinhold 40:27
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Speaker 1 41:42
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