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563: Are College Towns Doomed? Housing Supply Grows, More Apartment Loan Implosions with Hannah Hammond
About this Episode
Keith highlights the decline in college town real estate due to demographic changes and reduced international student enrollment.
The national housing market is moving towards balance, with 4.6 months of resale supply and 9.8 months of new build supply.
Commercial real expert and fellow podcast host, Hannah Hammond, joins Keith to discuss how the state of the real estate market is facing a $1 trillion debt reset in 2025, potentially causing distress and foreclosures, particularly in the Sun Belt states.
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Complete episode transcript:
Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai
Keith Weinhold 0:01
Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, are college towns doomed. There's a noticeably higher supply of real estate on the market. Today is get rich education. America's number one real estate investing show. Then how much worse will the Apartment Building Loan implosions get today? On get rich education.
Speaker 1 0:27
Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com
Corey Coates 1:12
You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.
Keith Weinhold 1:28
Welcome to GRE from Orchard Park, New York to port orchard, Washington and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education. How most people set up their life is that they have a job or an income producing activity, and they put that first, then they try to build whatever life they have left around that job. Instead, you are in control of your life when you first ask yourself, what kind of lifestyle Am I trying to build? And then you determine your job based on that. That is lifestyle design, and that is financial freedom, most people, including me, at one time. And probably you get that wrong and put the job first. And then we need to reverse it once you realize that, you discover that you found yourself so far out of position that you try to find your way back by putting your own freedom, autonomy and free agency first. There you are lying on the ground, supine, feeling overwhelmed, asking yourself why you didn't put yourself first. Then what I'm helping you do here is get up and change that by moving your active income over to relatively passive income, and doing it through the most generationally proven vehicle of them all, real estate investing for income. We are not talking about a strategy that didn't exist three years ago and won't exist three years from now. It is proven over time, and there's nothing avant garde or esoteric here, and you can find yourself in a financially free position within five years of starting to gradually shift that active income over to passive income.
Keith Weinhold 3:29
Now, when it comes to today's era of long term real estate investing, we are in the midst of a real estate market that I would describe as slow and flat. Both home price appreciation and rent growth are slow. Overall real estate sales volume is still suppressed. It that sales volume had its recent peak of six and a half million homes moved in 2021 which was a wild market, it was too brisk and annual sales volume is down to just 4 million. Today, more inventory is accumulating, which is both a good news and a bad news story. I'm going to get to this state of the overall market shortly. First, let's discuss real estate market niches, a particular niche, because two weeks ago, I discussed the short term rental arms race. Last week, beach towns and this week, in the third of three installments of real estate market niches are college towns doomed? Does it still make sense to invest in college town real estate? Perhaps a year ago on the show, you'll remember that I informed you that a college closes every single week in the United States. Gosh, universities face an increasingly tough demographic backdrop ahead. We know more and more people get a free education. Education online. Up until now, universities have tapped a growing high school age population in this seemingly bottomless well of international students wanting to study in the US. But America's largest ever birth cohort, which was 4.3 million in 2007 is now waning. Yeah, that's how many Americans were born in 2007 and that was the all time record birth year. Well, all those people turn 18 years old this year. This, therefore, is an unavoidable decline in the pool of potential incoming college freshmen from the United States. And on top of that, the real potential of fewer international students coming to the US to study adds to the concern for colleges. This is due to the effects and the wishes of the Trump administration. It already feels like a depression in some college towns now among metro areas that are especially reliant on higher education, three quarters of them suffered weaker economic growth over the past 12 years than the US has as a whole. That's according to a study at Brookings Metro. They're a non profit think tank in DC, all right, and in the prior decade, all right, previous to that, most of those same metros grew faster than the nation did. If this was really interesting, a recent Wall Street Journal article focused on Western Illinois University in McComb Illinois as being symbolic of this trend, where an empty dorm that once held 800 students has now been converted to a police training ground, it's totally different, where there are active shooter drills and all this overturned furniture rubber tipped bullets and paintball casings, you've got to repurpose some of these old dorms. Nearby dorms have been flattened and they're now weedy fields. Two more dorms are set to close this summer. Frat houses and homes once filled with student renters are now empty lots city streets used to be so crowded during the semester that cars moved at a crawl. That's not happening anymore. It's almost like you're watching the town die, said a resident who was born in Macomb and worked 28 years for the Western Illinois Campus Police Department. Macomb, Illinois is at the heart of a new rust belt across the US colleges are faltering, and so are the once booming towns and economies around them. Enrollment is down at a lot of the nation's public colleges and universities starting next year due to demographics like I mentioned, there will be fewer high school graduates for the foreseeable future, and the fallout extends to downtown McComb. It's punishing local businesses. There's this multiplier effect that's diminishing. It's not multiplying for generations. Colleges around the US fueled local economies, created jobs and brought in students and their visiting families to shop and spend and growing student enrollment fattened school budgets, and that used to free universities from having to worry about inefficiencies or cutting costs. But the student boom has ended, and college towns are suffering. And what are some of the other reasons for these doomed college towns? Well, first, a lot of Americans stopped having babies after the global financial crisis, you've got a strong dollar and an anti foreigner administration that's likely to push international student numbers down on top of this, and then, thirdly, US students are more skeptical of incurring these large amounts of debt for college and then, universities have been increasing administrative costs and tuition above the rate of inflation, and they've been doing that for decades. Tuition and operating costs are detached from reality, and in some places, student housing is still being built like the gravy train is not going to end. I don't see how this ends well for many of these universities or for student housing, so you've really got to think deeply about investing in college town housing anymore. Where I went to college, in Pennsylvania, that university is still open, but their enrollment numbers are down, and they've already closed and consolidated a number of their outlying branch campuses. Now it's important notice that I'm focused on college towns, okay, I'm talking about generally, these small. Smaller, outlying places that are highly dependent on colleges for their vibrancy. By the way, Pennsylvania has a ton of them, all these little colleges, where it seems like every highway exit has the name of some university on it. That is starting to change now.
Keith Weinhold 10:21
Conversely, take a big city like Philadelphia that has a ton of colleges, Temple University, Penn, which is the Ivy League school, St Joseph's, Drexel LaSalle, Bryn Mawr, Thomas Jefferson, Villanova. All these colleges are in the Philly Metro, and some of them are pretty big. Well, you can be better off investing in a Philly because Philly is huge, 6 million people in the metro, and there's plenty of other activity there that can absorb any decline in college enrollment. So understand it's the smaller college town that's in big trouble. And I do like to answer the question directly, are college towns doomed? Yes, some are. And perhaps a better overall answer than saying that college towns are doomed, is college towns have peaked. They've hit their peak and are going down.
Keith Weinhold 11:23
Let's talk about the direction of the overall housing market now, including some lessons where, even if you're listening 10 years from now, you're going to gain some key learning. So we look at the national housing market. There is finally some buyer selection again, resale housing supply is growing. I'm talking overall now, not about the college towns. Back in 2022, nearly every major metro could be considered not just a seller's market, but a strong seller's market. And it was too much. It was wild. Three years ago, buyers had to, oftentimes offer more than the asking price, pay all cash. Buyers had to waive contingencies, forgo inspections, and they had to compete with dozens of bidders. I mean, even if you got a home inspection, you pray that the home inspector didn't find anything worse than like charming vintage wiring, because you might have been afraid to ask for some repairs of the seller, and that's because the market was so hot and competitive that you might lose the deal. Fast forward to today, and fewer markets Hold that strong seller's market status. More metros have adequate inventory. And if you're one of our newsletter subscribers, you saw that last week, I sent you a great set of maps that show this. As you probably know, six months of housing supply is deemed as the balance point between buyers and sellers over six months favors buyers under six favors sellers. All right, so let's see where we are now. And by the way, months of housing supply, that phrase is also known as the absorption rate nationally, 4.6 months of resale supply exists. That's the current level, 4.6 months per the NAR now it bottomed out at a frighteningly low one and a half months of supply back in 2022 and it peaked at 12 full months of supply during the global financial crisis, back in 2010 All right, so these are the amounts of resale housing supply available for sale, and we overbuilt homes back in the global financial crisis, everyday people owned multiple homes 15 years ago because virtually anyone could qualify for a loan with those irresponsible lending standards that existed back in that era. I mean, back then, buyers defaulted on payments and walked away from homes and because they had zero down payment in the home. Well, they had zero skin in the game to protect and again, that peaked at 12 months of supply. Now today, Texas and Florida have temporarily overbuilt pockets that are higher than this 4.6 month national number and of course, we have a lot of markets in the Northeast and Midwest that have less than this supply. But note that 4.6 months is still under six months of supply, still favoring sellers just a little, but today's 4.6 months. I mean, that's getting pretty close to historic norms, close to balance. All right, so where is the best buyer opportunity today? Well, understand that. So far, have you picked up on. This we've looked at existing housing supply levels here, also known as resale homes. The opportunity is in new build homes. What's the supply of new construction homes in the US? And understand for perspective that right now, new build homes comprise about 1/3 of the available housing supply. And this might surprise you, we are now up to 9.8 months of new build housing supply, and that's a number that's risen for two years. That's per the Census Bureau and HUD. A lot of builders, therefore, are getting desperate right now, builders have got to sell. The reason that they're willing to cut you a deal is that, see, builders are paying interest costs and maintenance costs every single day on these nice, brand new homes that are just languishing, just sitting there. Understand something builders don't get the benefit of using a home. Unlike the seller family of a resale or existing home, see that family that has a resale home on the market, they get the benefit of living in it while it's on the market. This 9.8 months of new build supply is why buyers are willing to cut you a deal right now, including builders that we work with here at GRE marketplace.
Keith Weinhold 16:30
And we're going to talk to a builder on the show next week and get them to tell us how desperate they are. In fact, it's a Florida builder, and we'll learn about the incentives that they're willing to cut you they're building in one of these oversupplied pockets. So bottom line is that overall, an increasing US housing supply should keep home prices moderating. They're currently up just one to 2% nationally, and more supply means better options for you. Hey, let's talk about this very show that you're listening to, the get rich education podcast. What do you like to do while you're listening to the show? In fact, what are you doing right now while you're listening to the show? Well, in a recent Instagram poll, we asked our audience that very question you told us while listening to the show, 50% of you are commuting, 20% are exercising, 20% are at work, and 10% are doing home chores like cleaning or dishes. Now is this show the number one real estate investing podcast in the United States, we asked chatgpt that very question, and here's how they answered. They said, Excellent question. Real estate investing podcasts have exploded over the past 10 to 12 years, but only a handful have true long term staying power. Here's a list of some of the longest running, consistently active real estate investing podcasts that have built serious legacies. And you know something, we are not number one based on those criteria. This show is ranked number two in the nation. Number one are our friends at the real estate guys radio show hosted by Robert Helms. How many times have I recommended that you go ahead and give them a listen? Of course, I'm just freshly coming off spending nine days with them as one of the faculty members on their summit at sea. Their show started in 1997Yes, on actual radio, before podcasts even existed, and chat GPT goes on to say that they're one of the OGS in the space. It focuses on market cycles, investing strategies and wealth building principles known for its international investor perspective and high profile guests like Robert Kiyosaki. All right, that's what it says about that show. And then rank number two is get rich. Education with me started in 2014 and it goes on to say that this is what the show's about. It says it's real estate centric with a macroeconomic and financial freedom philosophy. It focuses on buy and hold investing, inflation, debt strategy and wealth building. Yeah, that's what it says. And I'd say that's about right? And this next thing is interesting. It describes the host of the show, me as communicating with you in a way that's clear, calm and slightly academic. That's what it says. And yeah, you've got to be clear. Today. There's so much competing for your attention that if I'm not clear with you, then I'm not able to help you calm. Okay? I guess I remain calm. And then finally, slightly academic. I. Hadn't thought about that before. Do you think that I'm slightly academic in my delivery? I guess that's possible. It's appropriate for a show with the word education in our name. I guess it makes sense that I'd be slightly academic. So that fits. I wouldn't want to be heavily academic or just academic, because that could get unrelatable. So there's your answer. The number two show in the nation for real estate investing.
Keith Weinhold 20:29
How are things going with your rental properties? Anyway, I had something interesting happen to me here these past few months. Now I have a property manager in one market that manages quite a few of my properties, all these single family homes and I had five perfect months consecutively as a real estate investor. A perfect month means when you have 100% occupancy, 100% rent collection, and zero maintenance or repair costs. Well, this condition went on for five months with every property that they managed. For me, which is great, profitable news, but that's so unusual to have a streak like that, it kind of makes you wonder if something's going wrong. But the streak just ended. Finally, there was a $400 expense on one of these single family homes. Well, this morning, the manager emailed me about something else. One of my tenants leases expires at the end of next month. I mean, that's typical. This is happening all the time with some property, but they suggested raising the rent from $1,700 up to 1725, and I rarely object to what the property manager suggests. I mean, after all, they are the expert in that local market. That's only about a one and a half percent rent increase, kind of slow there. But again, we're in this era where neither home price growth nor rent growth have been exceptional.
Keith Weinhold 22:02
I am in upstate Pennsylvania today. This is where I'm from. I'm here for my high school class reunion. And, you know, it's funny, the most interesting people to talk to are usually the people that have moved away from this tiny town in Appalachia, counter sport, Pennsylvania, it's not the classmates that stayed and stuck around there in general are less interesting. And yes, this means I am sleeping in my parents home all week. I know I've shared with you before that Curt and Penny Weinhold have lived in the same home and have had the same phone number since 1974 and I sleep in the same bedroom that I've slept in since I was an infant every time that I visit them. Kind of heartwarming. In a few days, I'm going to do a tour of America's first and oldest pretzel bakery in Lititz, Pennsylvania with my aunts and uncles to review what you've learned so far today, put your life first and then build your income producing activity around that. Many college towns are demographically doomed, and even more, have peaked and are on their way down. Overall American residential real estate supply is up. We're now closer to a balanced market than a seller's market. We've discussed the distress in the five plus unit apartment building space owners and syndicators started having their deals blow up, beginning in 2022 when interest rates spiked on those short term and balloon loans that are synonymous with apartment buildings. When we talked to Ken McElroy about it a few weeks ago on the show, he said that the pain still is not over for apartment building owners.
Keith Weinhold 23:51
coming up next, we'll talk about it from a different side, as I'll interview a commercial real estate lender and get her insights. I'll ask her just how bad it will get. And this guest is rather interesting. She's just 29 years old, really bright and articulate, and she founded her own commercial real estate lending firm. She and I recorded this on a cruise ship while we're on the real estate guys Investor Summit at sea a few weeks ago. So you will hear some background noise, you'll get to meet her next I'm Keith Weinhold. There will only ever be one. Get rich education podcast episode 563 and you're listening to it.
Keith Weinhold 24:31
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Keith Weinhold 25:03
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Caeli Ridge 26:13
this is Ridge lending group's president, Caeli Ridge. Listen to get rich education with key blind holes. And remember, don't quit your Daydream.
Keith Weinhold 26:31
Hey, Governor, education nation, Keith Weinhold, here we're on a summit for real estate on a cruise ship, and I'm with Hannah Hammond. She's the founder of HB capital, a commercial real estate lending firm, and the effervescent host of the Hannah Hammond show. Hey, it's great to chat
Hannah Hammond 26:48
you too. It's been so great to get to know you on this ship, and it's been a lot of fun,
Keith Weinhold 26:51
and we just met at this conference for the first time. Hannah just gave a great, well received presentation on the state of the commercial real estate market. And the most interesting thing, and the thing everyone really wants to know since she lends for five plus unit apartment buildings as well, is about the commercial real estate interest rate resets. Apartment Building values have fallen about 30% nationwide, and that is due to these resetting loans. So tell us about that.
Hannah Hammond 27:19
Yeah, so there is a tidal wave of commercial real estate debt coming due in 2025 some of that has already come due, and we've been seeing a lot of the distressed assets start to hit the market in various asset classes, from multifamily, industrial, retail and beyond. And then, as we continue through 2025 more of that title, weight of debt is going to continue to come due, which is estimated to be around $1 trillion of debt.
Keith Weinhold 27:44
That's huge. I mean, that is a true tidal wave. So just to pull back really simply, we're talking about maybe an apartment building owner that almost five years ago might have gotten an interest rate at, say, 4% and in today's higher interest rate environment that's due to reset to a higher rate and kill their cash flow and take them out of business. Tell us about that.
Hannah Hammond 28:03
Yeah. So a lot of investors got caught up a few years ago when rates were really low, and they bought these assets at very low cap rates, which means very high prices, and they projected, maybe over projected, continuous rent growth, like double digit rent growth, which many markets were seeing a few years back, and that rent growth has actually slowed down tremendously. And so much supply hit the market at the same time, because so much construction was developed a few years back. And so now there's a challenge, because rents have actually dropped. There's an overage of supply. Rates have doubled. You know, people were getting apartment complexes and other assets in the two or 3% interest rate range. Now it's closer to the six to 7% interest rate range, which we all know it just doesn't really make numbers work. Every 1% increase in interest you'd have to have about a 10% drop in value for that monthly payment to be the same. So that's why we're seeing a lot of distress in this market right now, which is bad for the people that are caught up on it, but it's good for those who can have the capital to re enter the market at a lower basis and be able to weather this storm and ride the wave back up
Keith Weinhold 29:08
income down, expenses up. Not a very profitable formula. Let's talk more about from this point. How bad can it get? We talked about 1 trillion in loans coming due this calendar year tell us about how bad it might be.
Hannah Hammond 29:23
So it's estimated that potentially 25% of that $1 trillion could be in potential distress. And of course, if two $50 billion of commercial real estate hit foreclosure all at the same time, that would be pretty catastrophic, and there would be a massive supply hitting the market, and therefore a massive reduction in property values and prices. And so a lot of lenders have been trying to mitigate the risk of this happening, and all of this distress debt hit the market at one time. And so lenders have been doing loan modifications and loan extensions and the extend and pretend, quote. Has been in play since back in 2025 but a lot of those extensions are coming due. That's why we're feeling a little bit more of a slower bleed in the commercial market. But you know, in the residential market, we're not seeing as much distress, because so many people have those fixed 30 year rates. But in commercial real estate, rates are generally not fixed for that long. They're more they could be floating get or they might only be fixed for five years, and then they've reset. And that's what we're seeing now, is a lot of those assets that were bought within the last five years have those rate caps expiring, and then the rates are jacking it up to six to 7% and the numbers just don't make sense anymore.
Keith Weinhold 30:36
That one to four unit space single family homes up fourplexes has stayed relatively stable. We're talking about that distress and the five plus unit multi family apartment space. So Hannah, when we pull back and we look at the lender risk appetite and the propensity to lend and to want to make loans, of course, that environment changes over time. I know that all of us here at the summit, we learn from you in your presentation that that can vary by region in the loan to value ratio and the other terms that they're talking about giving. So tell us about some of the regional variation. Where do people want to lend and where do people want to avoid making loans
Hannah Hammond 31:11
Exactly? And we were talking about this is every single region is so different, and there's even micro markets within certain cities and metropolitan areas, and the growth corridors could have a very different outlook and performance than even in the overexposed metro areas. So lenders really pay attention to where the capital is flowing to. And right now, if you look at u haul reports and cell phone data, capital is flowing mostly to the Sun Belt states, and it's leaving the Rust Belt states. So this is your southeast states, your Texas, Florida, Arizona, and these types of regions where a lot of people are leaving some of the Rust Belt states like San Francisco, Chicago, New York, where those markets are being really dragged down by all this office drag from all the default rates in these office buildings that have continued to accumulate post COVID. So the lender appetite is going to shift Market to Market, and they really pay attention to the asset class and also the region in which that asset class is located. And this can affect the LTV, the amount of money that they're going to lend based on the value of the property, also the interest rate and the DSCR ratios, which is how much above the debt coverage the income has to be for the lender to lend on that asset.
Keith Weinhold 32:26
So we're talking about lenders more willing to make loans in places where the population is moving to Florida, other markets in the Southeast Texas, Arizona. Is that what we're talking about here.
Hannah Hammond 32:37
exactly, and even on the equity side, because we help with equity, like JV equity or CO GP equity, on these development projects or value add projects. And a lot of my equity investors, they're like, Nah, not interested in that state. But if it's in a really good Sunbelt type market, then they have a better appetite to lend in those markets.
Keith Weinhold 32:56
Was there any last thing that we should know about the lending environment? Something that impacts the viewers here, maybe something I didn't think about asking you?
Hannah Hammond 33:04
I mean, credit is tight, but there's tons of opportunity. Deals are still happening. Cre originations are actually up in 2025 and projected to land quite a bit higher in 2025 at about 660, 5 billion in originations, versus 539 billion in 2024 so the good news is, deals are happening, movements are happening, purchases and sales are happening. And we need movement to have this market continue to be strong and take place, even though, unfortunately, some investors are going to be stuck in that default debt and they might lose on these properties, it's going to give an opportunity for a lot of other investors who have been kind of sitting on the sidelines, saving up capital and aligning their capital to be able to take advantage of these great deals. Because honestly, we all know it's been really hard to make deals pencil over the past few years, and now with some of this reset, it's going to be a little bit easier to make them pencil.
Keith Weinhold 33:04
This is great. Loans are leverage, compound leverage, trunks, compound interest, leverage and loans are really key to you making more of yourself. Anna, if someone wants to learn more about following you and what you do, what's the best way for them to do that?
Hannah Hammond 33:42
At Hannah B Hammond on Instagram, my show, the Hannah Hammond show, is also on all platforms, YouTube, Instagram, Spotify, Apple, and if you shoot me a follow and a message on Instagram, I will personally respond to and would love to stay connected and help with any questions you have in the commercial real estate market.
Keith Weinhold 34:27
Hannah's got a great presence, and she's great in person too. Go ahead and be sure to give her a follow. We'll see you next time. Thank you.
Keith Weinhold 34:40
Yeah. Sharp insight from Hannah Hammond, there $1 trillion in commercial real estate debt comes due this year. A quarter of that amount, $250 billion is estimated to be in distress or default. This could keep the values of larger apartment buildings suppressed. Even longer, as far as where today's opportunity is, next week on the show, we'll talk to a home builder in Florida, ground zero for an overbuilt market, and we'll see if we can sense the palpable desperation that they have to move their properties and what kind of deals they're giving buyers. Now until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, do the right thing before you do things right out there, and don't quit your Daydream.
Speaker 3 35:33
Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.
Keith Weinhold 35:56
You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info. Oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre 266, 866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre 266, 866,
Keith Weinhold 37:12
The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.
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