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584: The K-Shaped Economy for Real Estate Investors: Capital Compounds. Labor Doesn't.
About this Episode
Keith discusses the K-shaped economy, where income from capital assets is rising while labor income is declining.
In 1965, 50% of income came from labor and 50% from capital; by 1990, it was 54% and 46%, respectively, and today it's 57% and 43%. Keith emphasizes the importance of how capital compounds over labor and advises on building ownership in real estate and businesses.
Finally, he answers your listener's questions about: agricultural real estate inflation, profiting on mortgage loans, transitioning from accumulation to preservation and a fast-growing state that no one talks about.
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Complete episode transcript:
Keith Weinhold 0:00
Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, capital compounds, labor doesn't realizing this can change allocation decisions for the rest of your life. Then I discuss giving. Finally, I answer your listener questions about agricultural real estate inflation, profiting on mortgage loans when it's time for you to stop accumulating properties and a fast growing state that no one talks about today on get rich education
Speaker 1 0:33
since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com
Corey Coates 1:18
You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.
Keith Weinhold 1:34
Welcome to GRE from Williamsburg, Virginia to Williamsport, Pennsylvania and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education, and I'm somewhat near Williamsport, Pennsylvania today. For years, I've told you about the widening canyon between the haves and the have nots, and that's something that you might have only visualized in your head or merely considered a theory, but now you can see it. There's a chart that I recently shared with our newsletter subscribers that might just make your spine tingle and look, I don't like saying this, but hard work just does not pay off like it used to. This is emblematic of the K shaped economy. Just visualize the upper branch of the K, a line rising over time, and the lower branch of a letter k, that line falling over time, both plotted on the same chart. So what steadily happened over the last 60 years really is quite astonishing. And look, I don't want the world to be the way that I'm about to tell you it is, but that's just what's occurring. The share of one's income from capital assets is rising, while the share from labor keeps decreasing simultaneously. Now just think about your own personal economy. What share of your income is from your invested capital versus how much of your income is derived from your labor. When you're the youngest, it's all labor. When I got out of college and had my first job, all of my income was from labor. I certainly didn't have any rental property cash flow or stock dividends. But for Americans, here is how it's changed over time, and this K shaped divergence is alarming people in 1965 it was 5050 by 1990 54% of income was from capital and 46% labor. Today it's 57% capital and only 43 labor. Gosh, the divergence is real, and it's only getting wider, and I really had to dig for the sources on this K shaped economy chart. They are the BLS, the Tax Foundation and the International Labor Organization. Increasingly, asset owners are the haves. The upper part of this K shaped economy, that line is drifting up like a helium balloon that you forgot to tie to the chair. It just keeps going up and then the labor share of income, which is shrinking, that is also known as how much of the economic pie goes to people who actually work for a living. That is another way to think of it. So frankly, that's why I say hard work just does not pay off like it used to, because with each wave of inflation, assets, pump, leveraged assets, mega pump and wages lag behind, and we can't allocate our resources in the way that we want the. World to be, but how the world really is. In fact, the disparity is even greater than the chart that I just described to you, because it doesn't even include value accumulation, also known as appreciation. I was only talking about income there, and the reality is that working for a paycheck just pays off less and less and less. No amount of working overtime on a Saturday can make you wealthy, but it might make you miserable. Owning assets pays off more and more. In fact, the effect is even more exaggerated than what I even described, because, as we know, the tax treatment is lighter on your capital gains than it is your income derived through labor. As the economy keeps evolving, those who benefit the most, they do not sell their time for money. They're not trading their time for dollars. In fact, let me distill it down here are, yeah, it's just four words that could change the way you allocate your time and your effort for the rest of your life. Capital compounds, labor doesn't. yeah, there's a lot right there. If you want to keep up or get ahead, you need to be on the capital part of the K, the upper part. And what would that really look like for you in real life? What does that practically mean? It means building ownership into your financial life, owning real estate, owning businesses using prudent leverage, owning things that produce income, and even merely owning more things that appreciate. And here's the great news, though, real estate is still the most accessible, leverageable, tax favored capital friendly asset class ever created. That's whether you're just patching together like 43k for a down payment on your first turnkey single family rental, or making a tax deferred exchange into a 212 door apartment complex. Okay, this is how that can look in real life. The bottom line here is that as the economy gets more and more K shaped, with this divergence between Americans capital share of income increasing and labor share decreasing, that you want to stack real income generating assets. That is the big takeaway.
Keith Weinhold 7:44
Well, this is the time of year where a lot of people feel compelled to give donations. And as a GRE listener that's paid five ways, you've got more ability than others to give, I need to caution you about some things. I'm sorry that it is this way, because I do want to promote giving. It's kind, it's virtuous, and it's not a completely selfless act either, because when I give, it makes me feel good too. You're making a difference, and that feels great. Let's talk about the downsides of giving, though, because few people discuss that. We already know about the upsides when I give to an organization, say, 1500 bucks here, $1,000 over there, well, inevitably, you do get on that organization's contact list. And yeah, I suppose that it is easier to retain a customer or donor than it is to find a new one. Sometimes I just make what I expected to be a one time donation, but they will keep contacting you. Now, I was once on the other side of this. I served on a volunteer committee that organizes athletic events, and a friend of mine, John made a $1,000 donation to our organization one year, which was really kind, and he's just a day job working kind of guy when he didn't make the donation. The following year, someone made it a line item in our meeting minutes to say that John's donation was not renewed. Like that's the only thing they brought up. Oh gosh, that really struck me the wrong way, because here's a guy that traded his time for dollars at a job that I happen to know he doesn't like very much, and the committee statement was that the guy didn't renew his donation. Sheesh, now, when it comes to the tax treatment of, say, $1,000 that you make in a donation, there's a lot of misunderstanding about how that works, and this is the type of subject that you're thinking about now, because sometimes people want to get a tax break tallied up before year end, because some people think that after the year ends, well, the IRS pays you back the $1,000 you donated because it's tax deductible. No, that's how a tax credit. Works. But a tax deduction, which is all that you might be eligible for, means that if your annual income is 100k well then a 1k donation lowers your taxable income to 99k so if you're in the 24% tax bracket, then you'd get 240 bucks back. But you know, in many or even most cases, you're not going to get any tax break at all for making a donation, and this is because you did not exceed the standard deduction threshold, which is now almost 16k if you're single and almost 32k married, you get to deduct those amounts from your taxable income no matter what. So the standard deduction, in a way, it's nice, because you don't have to keep receipts and do all that tracking for everything. So I've had that experience myself where, huh, feeling a little generous throughout the year, giving $1,500 here, $1,000 there. Oh, and then realizing that it does nothing for me on taxes, you have to give more to exceed the standard deduction amount and start itemizing them. And mortgage interest does go into that amount. Okay, it does go into the amount to try to get your total above the standard deduction threshold. So go ahead and give freely, but in a lot of cases, keep in mind that it often does nothing for your taxes, because you're taking that standard deduction if you indeed are. There's been another tip flation trend that's annoying, and that is increasingly when I give a donation online, I'm asked to if I want to leave a tip on top of the donation. That is so weird, a tip is for good service. I'm serving you by being generous enough to give a donation. Sheesh, a tip request on top of a donation. But please do give when you do, one thing that you might want to specify is that it is a one time donation, if that is your intent, or they will constantly follow up with you.
Keith Weinhold 12:06
Coming up next, I'm going to answer your listener questions. A member of Team GRE, who you haven't heard before, is going to come in to ask me your listener questions, and one of them is going to be among the most important topics that our show has never addressed, and it's about time. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.
Keith Weinhold 12:28
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Keith Weinhold 13:40
the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com
Kristen Tate 14:14
this is author Kristin Tate. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.
Keith Weinhold 14:32
Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, they say that it takes a village to get some things done and well, it takes a team to prop up this slack jawed operation one GRE team member, capably behind the scenes for more than a year and a half now, is Brenda Almendariz, welcome in. Brenda, Hi, Keith, thanks. Rather than me asking the listener questions this time you. You get to do it, but before we do that, just tell us a bit about your real estate investing.
Brenda 15:07
Sure. So I started maybe learning a little bit about investing and kind of looking into other options to grow my wealth. And I came across the GRE podcast and a few others. So I think about 2018 I did a little bit of just learning and kind of educating myself. And then 2019 I bought my first turnkey property. Turned out well. And then 2020 I bought my second one. And then in 2021 I decided, okay, this is working really well. Maybe I'll do a house hack. I'll do something a little different, and in a year, then maybe I'll do something else. But I've been in my 2021 home now for about almost five years. I'm looking for the next one, hopefully within the next year. But yeah, it's been great. Turnkey. Just met real estate investment company here at my local REIA, and then I learned that I could actually connect with other companies across other places through GRE but yeah, it's been great.
Keith Weinhold 16:02
Brenda lives in Phoenix, just about as close to the center of Phoenix as you can possibly be. I sat down with Brenda for lunch the last time that I was in Phoenix, and like a lot of people, almost everybody that works here at GRE they started out as a listener before they ever worked here. And really, it's that same story with Brenda as well. So yeah, Brenda will want to ask us the first of what we have about four listener questions today
Brenda 16:31
we do, so I'll go over the first one here. Question is, I would love for you to revisit some of the non traditional example, coffee plantation, CBD manufacturing, teak plantation, Belize resort properties and syndication projects you've discussed on the GRE podcast just to see how they turned out. I'm sure some of them failed to deliver the expected returns, and it's the failures that many of us learn the most from
Keith Weinhold 17:02
Yeah, totally. Okay, so not so much a listener question here, but a comment to discuss more of these agricultural real estate investments or ones that are in syndications off of the investment type that you can't do yourself, is what we're talking about here, rather than direct ownership of residential rental property and an appeal to follow up down the road to see how they really turned out. And you know, Brenda, I'll address you because we don't have the listener name with this question. Most people in my position, if an investment has been discussed on the show, and then that investment didn't go as well as was hoped for, you know what? They never tell the audience about it. However, there's the Panama coffee farm investment. We first discussed that here way back in 2015 and we had a GRE field trip where I met a lot of you in person there in Panama. And as I often do when we discuss a particular investment here, I bought and still own Panama coffee farm parcels myself. That investment, it paid cash flow from the crop yields for a few years, and then it stopped. The good yields stopped due to covid disruption, and since then, there have also been erratic weather patterns like drought and precipitation of the wrong levels and at the wrong time of year, and there's been more of a prevalence of pests in disease like coffee leaf, rust and the operator. They have been communicative and forthcoming all the while they're still issuing the annual report that I read, and sometime after that, I think that a lot of investors were assured, because it sort of made national news, international news, that markets for both coffee and cacao have been suppressed, at least from the standpoint of there's not enough crop yield. I mean, that is a problem in a lot of places worldwide. Now I hope that turns around, and it very well may. In fact, we did something here that very few shows do. Back on episode 431, we had the Panama coffee farm CEO come back on the show to describe exactly what I just told you about there. And few shows are willing to do that. Some people just want you to think that every single investment that's discussed goes as well it was hoped for, or even better than expected. But that is not real world. You got to be authentic in real So, okay. Listener, comment, well, taken there. They appreciate that sort of follow up, and they would like more of that. All right, that's great. What's the next question? Brenda.
Brenda 19:40
Sure. So the next one comes to us from our audience over on YouTube. So in response to our real estate pays five ways in a slow market, YouTube video matrices wrote, There is no inflation profiting. You would have to be paying off the loan with an income that goes up with housing inflation. That's plausible if you are a wage earner, but if your source of income is rental properties, then there isn't a wage increase that reduces the effective loan amount. You are double dipping in the inflation profiting column by counting appreciation which you earn as a real estate investor and inflation profiting, which you earn only if your wages go up at the rate of housing inflation, and you use those wages to pay off the loan, which you don't
Keith Weinhold 20:33
Okay, again, somewhat of a statement here. I suppose there's a question implicit within that for matrices. I'm not sure how you say that name exactly. Wondering about inflation profiting. Are you counting it? Right? I don't know about that. The part about paying off the loan faster if you're a wage earner, I mean, that's plausible, but not if your income is from rental properties. I mean, see that's actually backwards, because your cash flow goes up faster than the rate of inflation due to your biggest payment, your principal and interest staying fixed, so your net rent income goes up even faster than the rate of inflation. So inflation profiting, therefore it's even better than how I've been presenting it and calculating it. Now with that understood matrices, here's one way for real estate investors to understand inflation profiting on your loan if you still have trouble getting with that. 30 years ago, in 1995 the US median home price was 130k with an 80% loan, your mortgage balance at origination would have been 104k and the monthly mortgage payment is 763 with the 8% market mortgage rate level that you would have gotten at that time. Now, even if we don't apply any principal pay down at all, your mortgage balance today is still just 104k and your payment is still just 736 bucks, and it is substantially easier to make that payment today, because your wages and salaries and rent incomes are multiples higher. When you originate a loan, the bank doesn't ask to be repaid in dollars or their equivalent. The loan documents only say dollars and dollars are worth less and less and less. So today, your median priced property is worth over 400k despite still having that tiny 104k loan balance. And of course, your tenant would have paid that down to zero, and we aren't even counting that part, I think, to really exaggerate the effect and help make the inflation profiting concept crystallize for you, matrices. If you go back 100 years, the median home cost was 11,600 bucks. An 80% loan would be just over 9k that you borrowed. Okay, so at a 7% interest rate, 30 year loan, the monthly payment would be 94 bucks, laughably small. That's less than the cost of a nice dinner out today. That's all you owe on a median priced property, which is over 400k today. So because it doesn't feel like you're tangibly walking away with anything when you sell a property, hopefully that helps make it real mitricas. And one last way to think about it is, let's just forget real estate for a moment. Would you loan your best friend 100k for 30 years interest free, even if we're somehow absolutely guaranteed that he would pay you back? Well, of course, he wouldn't do that, because inflation destroys the lender and benefits the borrower. So you would want to be the borrower in that case, because the borrower profits from inflation, profiting just like you're the borrower with income property. That's the position that you want to be in. But I'm glad we brought this up, because a lot of people have that question. That was a good one. Matrices, even though you seem to sort of be doubting if inflation profiting is a real thing with the way you approach the question, hey, I really appreciate it. Anyway, what's the next one? Brenda
Brenda 24:10
yep. So the next one we have is Mark. He wrote into our general inbox, and he says, I have been listening to your podcasts from the beginning, and I believe I have not missed a single show. Wow. Yeah, it would be hard to argue with your strategy of using debt to rapidly increase your returns and expand your rental real estate portfolio. This method is great for the accumulation phase of one's life. However, I believe that you have never addressed the next chapter of everyone's life, phase two. I am, of course, talking about preserving your wealth, which is phase two. Yeah, I only ask this because that is what stage of life I am in. For background, he has 15 rentals, seven mortgages. Age 62. Currently all managed by a property manager, and he is married and an empty nester. Please note, no matter how much money is made from rentals, he said, his wife's view is that it is work, and so she does not want any more homes or work. This would be a great idea for an upcoming show. Please consider thanks, Mark.
Keith Weinhold 25:20
Yeah. Great stuff, Mark. And before Brenda came on, we discussed which questions that she's going to choose. And I definitely wanted to have this one in there, because, I mean, this is one of the most important topics that's never been answered on the show, and it really needs to be answered today. The accumulation phase of Mark's life is done. He wants to know about how to approach the preservation stage. First of all, Mark, congratulations. You've listened to every GRE episode, 584, of them now, and you've clearly benefited from acting so good for you to be in this position. In fact, this show had its inception in 2014 and it doesn't even take these 1011, years to reach financial freedom, if you follow my plan. So you are there. All right, so, Mark, you've got 15 rentals, seven mortgages. You're age 62 they're currently managed by a property manager. You're married in an empty nester. I mean, you've made it, and you know that you've made it when you have enough income to support your desired lifestyle. That's what we're talking about here. Financially Free, beat step free and all of that, I'm going to speculate mark that if you had tried paying all cash for every property, you wouldn't have gotten very far. You wouldn't have made it to this point. You know why this question resonates so well with me, Mark, despite being quite a bit younger than you, I am at that stage as well. I definitely don't need to add more properties for the rest of my life. Now. I don't have kids yet either, so there's no clear air there. In fact, one reason that I hold on to my properties is to help educate our audience to be a real investor in the game and to be able to keep up with trends. You can just kind of tell when someone's not investing in real estate themselves. So if I talk it, I want to keep doing it now for you, Mark, it's not about rushing to pay off your seven mortgages, as you know from listening, that's usually not your best return on capital. If you've already made it, there is absolutely zero reason to add more properties, I would agree, especially if you know, in your wife's eyes, that creates a headache, and maybe yours as well, once you get to a certain point. So as far as this preservation stage, since you've moved away from the accumulation phase, the LLC is the favorite protection structure, not a C or an S Corp. And I have done shows on that with attorneys before. Since I'm not one of your 15 properties, if one or two are less profitable or for whatever reason, you just have difficulty getting those rented during vacancies, okay, you can sell those off if you don't want to do the 1031, exchange into more property, you can pay the tax. That's an option, but you will also have to pay depreciation recapture on those properties and mark. If there's one thing I wish I knew, it's that if you do have children or clear heirs, but the gold standard for passing along properties to heirs is a revocable living trust, and if you only remember one thing about that, a properly drafted living trust is the number one way to pass along rental properties smoothly. And why it's great is that it avoids probate. Probate is a court supervised process. It takes months or years of delay. So instead, with a revocable living trust, heirs get access to your properties almost immediately. Now you are age 62 hopefully this isn't happening anytime soon, but you do keep full control while you're alive, it's easy to update a revocable living trust, but the big one probably is that it prevents family disputes and it keeps everything private. That way there's no public probate record. And the bonus is, if you own properties in multiple states, a trust avoids multiple probates, that's huge. So those are some considerations. Mark as you've Congratulations again. Move from the accumulation phase to the preservation stage. It's a completely normal, natural process. You sure don't have to keep adding properties for ever and ever. Congrats. You made it. You did it.
Brenda 29:37
Great. We've got another one, Keith. This one is from Tim in Philomath, Oregon, and he says, I would be interested in the days ahead, if you would be able to help us understand why North Dakota is projected to grow so much.
Keith Weinhold 29:54
Okay, thanks, Tim in follow math, Oregon, another word I'm not sure how to pronounce. Now, yeah, you might think it's unusual that I would want to answer this question. For a low population state of under 1 million people, like North Dakota, from today to 2050 there's forecast to be 9% population growth nationally, but in North Dakota, it is 34% that is quite a surge, and that is per visual capitalist via the University of Virginia, but North Dakota's projected growth, it looks surprisingly strong on paper, especially for a cold, rural, low population state. But really, there are at least four major forces behind the fast 2025 to 2050, Outlook, and when you break them down, the growth actually makes sense. So I want to talk about this, because it's really a template for what makes for a growing place and a good future real estate market, no matter where it is. But in North Dakota, you've got this continued energy sector, strength, oil, gas and next generation energy. Part of what's driving the growth is something that's definitely not a new story. It is still the Bach and shale. It's still one of the top US oil fields. You got advances in drilling. That means more production with fewer rigs. That makes a sector more resilient. You've got global demand for liquid fuels projected to remain high through 2050 I know people like to talk about renewables, and there probably is a future there. But it's not like we're going to go all renewable right away. North Dakota is aggressively expanding carbon capture. So energy equals jobs. Jobs equals population retention and in migration, there's a national labor shortage in North Dakota. It's got this skilled worker hole. The US is going to face a major labor shortage through 2050 that's because of trends that you really can't change, like an aging population and low birth rates. That makes these high wage, high demand energy and engineering jobs stickier. North Dakota consistently leads in labor force participation, job availability, good starting wages for skilled trades, and they always seem to have a low unemployment rate, lower than the national average. So in other words, people move where the jobs are, even if it's cold. They really have one of the best economic outlooks in the country. There's a report called Rich states, poor states. In their latest one, they ranked North Dakota fifth nationwide in economic outlook, and that's above Texas and Florida and Tennessee, and that's because North Dakota has low taxes. They're business friendly, they're light on regulation. Businesses like that, their budgets are stable, and they've got strong public finances. So states with those fundamentals, they tend to grow pretty well over long horizons, and North Dakota has this demographic momentum. It's a younger state than all the surrounding states. They have a younger median age, high birth rates, so they've got this faster natural replacement rates, and they have really strong university systems, both und and North Dakota State, and what that does is that retains those graduates for jobs like energy and engineering and agriculture. So North Dakota benefits from this high stay rate, like a lot of people move for jobs, and they end up staying there, and their population growth seems fast, but the overall population small, so a net gain of 150,000 people, that really seems huge in percentage terms. It's steady rather than explosive growth. We're talking about annual gain. So really, a takeaway for investors is that North Dakota's growth is not a fluke. It's from strong economic policy, a big, durable energy engine, high earning jobs. You got this favorable business climate, and really unexpectedly young demographics. I read that the counties that will grow fastest are Cass Williams and stark and, you know, Brenda. If we learn about a reputable North Dakota property provider, maybe we'll talk about them here on the show. So if you the listener or anyone else know about one, write into us at get rich education, comm slash contact, and we'll check them out. And also, more broadly, if you want your listener question answered in the future, that's where to write to us as well, again, at get rich education.com/contact, thank thanks for the North Dakota question, Tim and Brenda, it's nice to have you here to ask the questions in a different voice.
Brenda 34:29
Thanks, Keith. Yeah, it's good to be on this side of the show instead of
Keith Weinhold 34:34
a listener. After all these years, there's one episode I'm sure you'll be listening to, and it's this one that you're on today.
Keith Weinhold 34:48
Yeah, much of our team here were GRE listeners before they ever worked here. We just made another hire two months ago. That woman worked for a payment processor. I said at the time, that sounds really boring. It definitely sounds more interesting to work at the GRE podcast. To review what you learned today, capital compounds labor doesn't though I promote being a giver, there are downsides to giving, but they're manageable. Inflation, profiting is the most often misunderstood of the five ways, and you will reach a tipping point where you've won in which you no longer have to add properties. That is transitioning from the accumulation phase to the preservation phase. That is one of the more important unaddressed things on the show until today, and finally, North Dakota's booming growth projections coming up soon on the show, I'll reveal GRE national home price appreciation forecast for next year, where you will learn the exact percent appreciation or decline expected in the future. Until then, check us out at get richeducation.com I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.
Speaker 3 36:00
You nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC, exclusively.
Keith Weinhold 36:32
The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, GetRichEducation.com
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