#60 - Annie Duke, decision strategist: Poker as a model system for life—how to improve decision making, use frameworks for learning, and apply 'backcasting' to boost your odds for future success

• Annie's background, favorite sports teams, and Peter's affinity for Belichick [7:30];
• Chess vs. poker: Which is a better metaphor for decision making in life (and medicine)? [12:30];
• Thinking probabilistically: Why we aren't wired that way, and how you can improve it for better decision making [18:15];
• Variable reinforcement: The psychological draw of poker that keeps people playing [25:15];
• The role of luck and skill in poker (and other sports), and the difference between looking at the short run vs. long run [38:00];
• A brief explanation of Texas hold 'em [47:00];
• The added complexity of reading the behavior of others players in poker [53:15];
• Why Annie likes to "quit fast", and why poker is still popular despite the power of loss aversion [58:30];
• Limit vs. no limit poker, and how the game has changed with growing popularity [1:01:00];
• The advent of analytics to poker, and why Annie would get crushed against today's professionals [1:10:30];
• The decision matrix, and the 'resulting' heuristic: The simplifier we use to judge the quality of decisions —The Pete Carroll Superbowl play call example [1:16:30];
• The personal and societal consequences of avoiding bad outcomes [1:27:00];
• Poker as a model system for life [1:37:15];
• How many leaders are making (and encouraging) status-quo decisions, and how Bill Belichick's decision making changed after winning two Super Bowls [1:41:00];
• What did we learn about decision making from the Y2K nothingburger? And how about the D-Day invasion? [1:46:30];
• The first step to becoming a good decision maker [1:48:45];
• The difference between elite poker players and the ones who make much slower progress [1:55:30];
• Framework for learning a skill, the four levels of thought, and why we hate digging into our victories to see what happened [1:58:15];
• The capacity for self-deception, and when it is MOST important to apply four-level thinking [2:06:15];
• Soft landings: The challenge of high-level thinking where there is subtle feedback and wider skill gaps [2:16:45];
• The benefits of 'backcasting' (and doing pre-mortems) [2:19:30];
• Parting advice from Annie for those feeling overwhelmed (and two book recommendations) [2:28:30]; and
• More.

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