9/10/26: Trump Offers $5k Midterm Bribe, Oil Prices Spike Amid Houthi Attacks

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2:00But enough with that, let's get to the show. Trump is hosting his big midterm convention down in Texas, where in perfect Trumpian style. He is the keynote speaker, both Knights, so it kicked off last night, and he unveiled a new promise to the American people. Let's take a listen. If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them, because of our economic, tremendous economic success, like in history, we've never had anything like what's happening. But because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000. I mean, you could just do it now, since you have Republican majorities. If you actually wanted to do such a thing, but I'm still waiting on my doge check. I'm still waiting on my tariff rebate check.

3:02So this is the third major, I will just give you money promise that Trump's pay. It's all rolled into one. You get your dividend together. $5,000 dividend. I'm sure that all the Republicans in Congress definitely support this idea, right? Oh, yeah. Is that right? Is that right? Rying up for the new $1.2 trillion stimulus, this would be? Billy, $1.3 trillion actually. In terms of how you're going to pay for it, I believe the justification is that because we've taken in three... How many Iran wars does it cost? We've taken $300 billion in tariff revenue in. And so that means that we could give out $1.3 million in dividend checks. I mean, listen, Ryan Joke, Democrats, you just be like, fuck it, we'll give you $10,000. Absolutely. I mean, you know, I don't hate it. Like, you know, people would suffer it. You could call it the gas check or something like that. I mean, I just, the broader political, I mean, number one is not happening. So let's just be clear about that. Number two, I don't think people will believe that it's going to happen because it's like, okay, again,

4:04there have been a lot of promises made that have not been kept in terms of, oh, we're totally going to give you a check. And number two, you do have control right now. So how about you go ahead if this is something you're serious about, you could go ahead and do it. And then maybe we vote for you because you actually showed some care and concern for the American people versus the things you've been saying routinely, which is that you don't give a shit about the material conditions of the American people. Captain Rampell over at Washington Post has, or is our bull work, has this. $5,000 stimulus checks were promised by a doge. $2,000 stimulus checks were promised by a tariff dividend. $1,000 checks via savings from the expiring ACA subsidy. Oh, I forgot about that one. And $5,000 dividend now if Republicans win the midterms. Coincidentally, I believe that this $5,000 would be just enough to make up for the overall price increase that will pay over the course of a year from the ACA subsidy expiring. So there's just my personal guess. And then how far does it come of the additional gas prices? Of course, you have a lot of cars.

5:04I have electric cars. We'll definitely pay more for it than most people pay for gas vehicles. So yeah, I'm doing all right. But, you know, overall, I don't think that this, look, it comes down to trust. And remember, I think back to Trump literally won the one, the 2020 election. If he had been able to pass those final stimulus checks, do you remember this entire thing? With the Georgia runoff elections? Oh, yeah. And everything. If Trump had actually promised to just pass a final stimulus check, I genuinely think he would have won the election. And not only that, Mitch McConnell could have easily made sure that neither of those Democrats were able to win in those Senate seats. If he had allowed that, now did Trump use any of his political authority to push that through? No. Ultimately, you know, the doge actually didn't save us any money at all. Don't believe me. Believe the official United States government statistics. If you want to go and check that, that's the problem. Because there's a huge trust deficit and this comes off as desperate whenever it comes to Trump. And especially because every single one of us knows that Trump is not actually going to put all of his political capital behind this.

6:09Now, let's be fair. If he wanted to, he actually could. Remember when Trump promised that he was going to cut all social security tax? He actually did that. Yeah, it worked out for boomers. And everybody was like, oh, yeah, and they put that into the big, beautiful bill. They also did it for no tax on tips, which I guess give a credit, although it's being horrifically abused right now in terms of the tax code. So you can see how when he wants to do something and actually ram it down people's throats. Yeah. It can happen. You'd be better off doing it right now. I mean, the United States Senate, they're not even in back in session till next Tuesday. I'm pretty sure. Call them back. You have the authority as president. I'm calling back both houses of Congress. I spoke to Speaker Johnson. I spoke to leader Thune. We're immediately going to advance this legislation. And every American will get it on no Wednesday election day. November 5th on November 4th. They're going to direct the positive. Who gives a shit? Sure. Yeah. I mean, remember in 2020, part of how it was so close when all the polls had it being a total blowout was because he'd sent out stimulus checks.

7:14100% stirring COVID with his name on it. And we covered those Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley who were like, I don't know. He seemed pretty good to me. I got this check with his name on it. So I'm voting for him again. Yeah. So, you know, it can be very powerful. I think you learned that lesson. But when your approval rating is in the toilet and you've already done the like I'm going to give you checks things repeatedly. And then it hasn't come through. I don't know how powerful this is going to be. Another thing that was very significant here is that he said specifically. That you should act as if I am on the ballot, which we'll talk about it on the other side. But it's kind of an interesting thing to say at a time when you're hovering like the low 30s with your approval rating with the American public. This is D1. Let's take a listen. The choice in this election is very, very simple. Democrats are asking you to vote for their failed far left agenda. It's never worked. That destroyed your finances and delivered you four years of disaster. Bedlam and death under sleepy Joe Biden.

8:19And I'm asking you to let us finish the job we began with the greatest two years in the history of the presidency. This has been the most successful two years financially and every other way in the history of the presidency. So I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot. Just one more time. Because if we lose, you're going to lose your butter, you're going to lose your tax cuts, you're going to lose your safety and security, you're going to lose your wealth. Our country is going through hell. You will be going through hell just like you did just two years ago. Go through hell like you did two years ago. How's it going right now? If you ask most Americans, they'll say that they are financially worse off and worse off in general under the Trump presidency. So it's pretty wild to say it's been the most successful two years in the history of the presidency.

9:19And he's not wrong that it is sort of like he's on the ballot. No, he is not. I mean, it will be a referendum on him. I'm not sure that it's smart for him politically to completely own that. Just as you remember when Obama said with Hillary, act as if I'm on the ballot and then she loses. Well, you know, that is a bit of a referendum on you and how people felt about the legacy of the presidency. I played that clip in my very first rising monologue ever actually. I remember that. I remember that. My name and all the ballot. Justice is on the ballot. That's why you got to go out and vote for Hillary. Yeah. Well, yeah, it doesn't really work out for Mr. Trump. I do think I have really is fascinating to me that he survives the whether it is at the 90 criminal charges. He survives everything the media ever threw at him. He survives literally a decade in public life, stormy Daniels, access Hollywood, Charlotte'sville. I mean, January, I could go on forever in the like and every single one he comes out stronger.

10:23He wins the popular vote probably one of the most stunning victories in modern American history in terms of expectation versus reality. First Republican to do so since 2004 on ambiguous he has literally the culture like on his side. How did it all just go like this? It really is Iran. Like if you take a look, I'm not saying that he wasn't unpopular or divisive, but in my opinion, you know, prior to Iran, this would have been one of those classic elections where you're going to get blown out in the house 2018 style, but those closer Senate races, they're going to they're in contention. I think Ken Paxen wins easily if there is not easily, but two to three points. It's a Beto style Ted Cruz versus Ted Cruz. Toleriko raises a lot of money. But the scenario that we're in right now is one where with Iran, he actually just can't wriggle his way out like period. It is one where it is genuine checkmate. It's a disaster. As you and I are recording right now, our friend Rory, I mean Brent crude oil is at $105 a barrel right now today.

11:28That means diesel is over $6 a gallon, which is the highest price on record. Gasoline price, let me just check retail gas, actual price. It's 427 national. There's not even a lot of bombs that are flying around. There's not even active war. Average price in California, $589, there'll be a six bucks probably in the next week. I mean, this is crushing and it's been six months of this and everybody knows they've got nothing. They have zero solution to this entire thing. That's I think, there's something really profound about that. Obviously, historical lesson, I've just all these people have been a big French Revolution kick, reading a lot about Napoleon. It's just kind of amazing. It's just like roll the dice, you win, you roll the dice, you win, you roll the finger like, God, this man can't be stopped. And then you roll into Moscow and you're like, Oh, actually, you can't stop it. It's on down. Yeah, turns out you can. Well, it's the same thing here. It really is that it's like the most ever present lesson in all of history. It made a sense in a way sort of poetically that Trump would be the author of his own destruction,

12:30that no one else could really do it. He had to author his own destruction. Just like Hitler, just like Napoleon. That's exactly what has happened here. And I would say it is the Iran War as the biggest factor. I don't think we should underestimate though how much people hated the tariffs. Remember when we were talking people hated the tariffs. And especially when you look at how many of these Senate races are in the Midwest, where they're getting hurt both by the tariffs and by the Iran War, and suddenly cancases and suddenly Nebraska's in place, suddenly Iowa is like lean D. At this point, obviously, Michigan's going to be a key state as well. Ohio is a key state as well. When you look at those states and how important not only the Iran War, but the tariffs have been to their entire economic base. I think you put the two of those together. And that is also really when people started to have a negative view of Trump and his handling of the economy. Because previously that had been his biggest strength is people, oh, it's a businessman. He knows what to do. It's going to be great. It was when he did Liberation Day and the whole thing was insane.

13:32It didn't make any sense and it didn't work. And it just increased costs isn't created all of this chaos. That people really had that foundational view of Trump shaken. And then it's been just a steady slide since then with obviously the Iran War and the attendant price increases there being a complete and utter disaster. There were a couple of other interesting moments at this GOP convention. First of all, I can believe that this is 0-0 on the screen. Just to give you a sense of the vibes, there were a lot of empty seats. I think this was towards the beginning, but you've got, there were videos from right in the midst of things. Most of those bottom seats were filled in, but you had a lot of empty space there. There's a lot of reporting on the scene that the vibes are pretty bad. In advance, had a lot of reporting about the number of Republican politicians that were like, I'm good. I'm busy campaigning at home. Good luck. So that's why you had last night at the convention. It was like Scott Besent speaking and whatever Trump administration I think Donald Jr. has a speaking slot as well.

14:33Trump is headlining both nights. Trump this morning claims, quote, the overall numbers beat the NFL. There is no universe where the RNs, so let's split screen. Sam Donald entry, Drake May choking like an idiot, a split screen with Donald Trump and his 11 PM prime time speech. I'm just waiting for the numbers to come out. I think the over the over under, if you will, is around 40 million viewers who probably watched the game. And I would be willing to bet if you stopped a guy on the street and said, did Donald Trump speak last night? He'd be like, what are you talking about? You know what I mean? Look what? This message is brought to you by Ralph's. If you love food, creativity, or making your space your own, you know the best moments often start in the kitchen, where it all comes together. And with Ralph's, you can plan ahead by stocking your kitchen with fresh ingredients and essentials. So the moments you create at home feel more enjoyable right from the start of your day.

15:34Order online and pick up groceries at your local Ralph's. Ralph's serving so cal for over 150 years. Hi, Ryan Reynolds here for a Mint Mobile. Are you looking for a beach read this summer? May I suggest your big wireless bill? It's got suspense, mystery, a slightly flat emotional arc and a shocking twist where you realize you've been overpaying the entire time. Fortunately though, Mint's story is better. Every plan $15 a month, even unlimited. That's it. Happy ending, zero tears. Give it a try at MintMobile.com slash switch. Up from payment of $45 for three months, $90 for six months, or $180 for 12 month plan required, $15 per month equivalent to taxes and fees extra. The initial plan for money greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. See terms. How to sell your car? First, go to CarMax.com. Then... Wow, this offers great. But is this just an estimate? Nope, it's worth real money. Oh, I like that. Hold on. Is my phone going to ring off the hook with sales calls now? Not at all. You have a week to think on it. Pressure free. Okay. But then I have to drop it off. Or you can just schedule an at-home pickup.

16:34That is kind of amazing. Get a real offer today at CarMax.com. Offers a good for seven days. At-home pickup not available in all locations. Distance restrictions and a fee may apply. We also, let's put it, is this a V.O. The D3B? No, it's a SAT. So this is a Pizar. In the whole Hassan Piker discourse, the Republicans decided to include in their montage of like, Democrats are bad and evil. Some images of Hassan Piker, including one that's this like, thirst trap of him in his underwear that he posted on Instagram. At some point, let's take a look at that. It has moved away from Democrats in its own party. I have nothing of the same party with Hassan Piker. I can take that right now. The funniest part of that is how they do it. I don't know. I would love to have a word with the person who put that montage together and know the psychology that went in. I have some suspicions. I think most people do. I have some ideas around how that one got in there. I think what didn't grind or crash? Grind or crash? Again, yeah, as usual during major Republican events.

17:34All right. We'll effort Benny Johnson to give us the little bit down on this psychology. So let's get to the next one. I think we're going to have to get to the next one. Okay. So let's get to what is it? Well, we've got Federman. John Federman decided that he would also make a virtual appearance because we all know he's too lazy to actually travel to Texas. So we sent in a video on behalf of his bestie, the Republican Senator, Dave McCormick, from Pennsylvania. This is D3. Let's take a listen to that. The big, warm welcome Republicans in Dallas. Yes, I'm Senator Jack Federman, Pennsylvania. Yes, I'm a Democrat. Why am I here talking to you today? Because, well, I'm a comment-sense Democrat. I'm always going to stand with America. I'm always going to reject the extremes and socialism in that anti-American way of life. Dave McCormick is the kind of Senator that gets the job done.

18:34And he's going to fight for Pennsylvania. I'm proud to count him as my friend. Right back over my shoulder, that's the iconic US Steel Mill. And that's exactly the kind of thing that will work together and will work with President Trump to fight and defend the steel way of life right here in the Steel Valley. I have this opportunity to introduce this great American, a great Senator. And yes, he's in a different party. But I'm proud to count him as my great friend. So for everybody in Dallas, I'm here to introduce Dave McCormick. So there you go, John Fetterman, really inspiring stuff there for the Republican Convention. Put a statement out this morning, he said, in no way am I switching parties in no way. You know, I'm proud to be the 51st. I would be proud to say it would be the 51st Senator. We are in different parties. We are both on TPA. We have delivered hundreds of millions of dollars back to Pennsylvania with the Steel way of life. I'm a lifelong Democrat who votes overwhelmingly with my party and should the Senate flip in November,

19:35I will still be the 51st vote that I ran on. So he claims I will not be switching parties whatsoever. I actually, I really don't think he was switched parties. I think there is nothing he would love more than being the John, the Joe Manchin, you know, up or down, every media organization in the world has to hang on to his every word. A Schumer has to, you know, take him out to lobster dinners and every lobbyist in town has to shower him with cash. I mean, this is his dream. But I think that's the thing that I'm going to do. I mean, he will also delight in any time there is a close vote where he's the swing vote. Oh, no, no. He will vote for the Republican with the Republicans every time that it actually matters. So it does change the calculus in terms of how many seats Democrats actually have to win to have a functioning majority because you definitely can't rely on this guy that much is, is for sure. Let's go ahead and put D5 up on the screen, the significant polling in terms of where we are politically. This was pretty noteworthy. You know, one of the things that really was a tell that Trump

20:38was likely to win re-election in 2024 was that Republican identification for the first time had was outpacing Democratic identification. More people who were saying they're Republicans and Democrats. That historically has not been the case. Now things have reversed and not only have they reversed, but they have reversed to the point that now you have Democrats with a sizable lead over Republicans, a six point lead, over Republicans in terms of party identification. So things have really, really switched around there. And then we also just again in the sign of the times, let's put this D6 up on the screen. The latest poll out of Texas, which is where, of course, this convention is being held. This has Talleriko up on Paxton by 5.48, 43, very close to majority there, very close to hitting that 50% benchmark for Talleriko as well. This is not obviously the only poll that shows this. There's basically every poll that comes out has Talleriko,

21:40narrowly leading Paxton. There have been very few that have Paxton up at all in the state Greg Abbott also seems to be under significant pressure. And I think to Saga's point, I mean, this would not be a possibility. Even with Paxton being a scandal plague and all the problems with him, et cetera, this would not be in play. It would not be, you know, with Talleriko, I think at this point, you have to say has the edge in the race, if not for the Iran War. Right. So there's 7% undecided. So it's not like Paxton can't win if he wins all those people. But we also just have never seen a modern campaign where you do win 100% of undecided, which makes it literally a game of within 0.5 or 0.6%. Trump also literally said, you know, I'm going to campaign with Ken Paxton. Also Ken Paxton took the stage yesterday, didn't exactly like the whole thing on fire. Trump didn't hold stick again of like, exactly. He's not like how he looks. He doesn't look like he looks. How he told me dresses. You mean, not like anything about him, but he votes the right way.

22:41You're like, okay, I mean, you know, not particularly great endorsement. He's got a money disadvantage. Remember, he needs the Maga Super Paxton to come in and bail his ass out on campaign. That's a big problem because you don't have major control over how the ads on all of that are being cut. And look, Texas, like I said, it's a little bit different because genuinely there are people in Texas right now, one of the few places in America who are printing generational wealth off of the situation in New York. Like if you work in the port of Houston, you are having a bananza. If you are in the West Texas oil fields or any of these guys, you are actually at the prime of your career. But tens of millions of people, it's no longer the state like it was when I grew up as a much more dynamic economy. It's not all oil and gas. Has technology, has more, you know, everyday type jobs. Those people are all still suffering. Let me see what the gas price is in Texas. It's still 383 at Gallon, not exactly cheap, especially down there. So you put that together and high inflation, high cost of living, even in a state which predominantly was like, you know,

23:44it was like a banner for a place to move to escape kind of the problems of some of the California, New York or any of those types of places. There's just enough there, along with democratic enthusiasm for Tallariko to come and to really be able to like seize on this. And I've been watching him. You know, I'll give the guy credit. Tallariko, he went on Fox News yesterday. He had his no compunction, you know, walking in to what he knew would be an adversarial interview. And he said, yeah, I said some stupid stuff about six genders. And the reason why they want to talk about that is because diesel is six dollars a gallon. I mean, you know, not my cup of tea. It's a decent line. Yeah. It's decent enough, I think, you know, exactly for it's decent enough from what I can see to be able to capture exactly the type of person. Let's say the white 48 year old mom who traditionally votes Romney has never particularly liked Trump, you know, decides to go ahead and vote. Or sat out the election is just sit there and is like, I just can't stand Trump.

24:46So pissed off about this pissed off about grocery prices. And you know, this Tallariko stuff. I don't love it. You know, we talk about it at church, but he says something like that. He goes, she's like, okay, maybe, you know, and you could just see that repeat across the spectrum. I think the big question will be how that Latino vote, Rio Grande Valle, Latino vote is swings according to this poll. They are massively going for a Tallariko. But it's a very hard population to pull. You know, previous shifts there haven't really been captured by pollsters. So I think it's something you should be skeptical about. And it's a population that is more culturally conservative. So some of those statements, your Republicans are hoping that some of those statements are going to sit poorly with that community. And Trump is probably hoping that he'll be able to recreate the stimulus check magic that he had in the past. And that will bring some of them back over to the Republican side. But all of the indications are that there's been a huge swing away from Trump and the Republicans among Latino specifically in this election. And I really think that will be the determining factor in terms of whether or not Tallariko is going to be able to win.

25:51Because this is probably the largest sort of swing demographic in the country. You know, they're not diehard Democrats are just going to be excited to come out and vote. You need more than that in Texas in order to win. He's going to need to win these more independent minded, you know, minded voters. And so I really think that could be the key. I have no, I have no compunction of even trying to predict the how these people vote. Because they go from Hillary plus 48 to Trump plus two to Trump plus 50 back to Democrat. I'm like, I have no idea how to vote. I'm done even trying to analyze it. The basics of what I could see was that it was stimulus checks at the beginning. Then it became kind of a cultural liberalism rejection. Then they became heart hawks on immigration. Now they're doves on immigration. I can't figure these people out. So I don't know how they're going to vote. They may not vote period, but yes, they are a very critical constituency. I still think that the biggest thing in Tallariko's favor is the demographic change in the state.

26:52I just can't overstate. I mean, the state that I grew up in just does not exist anymore. There's thousands of people who are all from California or from New York, who have all moved in. I mean, I'm not saying that they overwhelm in terms of numbers, but that is exactly... If you want somebody who's going to crawl over a broken glass of vote, who's going to go doorknock for you, who's going to come and staff your campaign meetings and hand out doughnuts and all this stuff. That's who you need really on your side. I think that's really the wind is at his back in that front more than anything from what I can see. I don't think there's enough of a core constituent base to be able to try and build some sort of a coalition. I still got my eye on Gina Hignosa as well. I don't think Abbott is in any way safe in this election. I think if there's a wave, I think he could very easily could lose by 0.1 or 0.2, something like that. Not nearly as much as Paxton, but it is definitely in a one in six type possibility. No, it would be insane. I mean, she'd be the first Democrat. What's this? And Richard's be the governor of the state, which is nuts. If you know, I think that was what 1988, so, way before you and I was born.

27:56This message is brought to you by Ralph's. If you love food, creativity, or making your space your own, you know the best moments often start in the kitchen, where it all comes together. And with Ralph's, you can plan ahead by stocking your kitchen with fresh ingredients and essentials. So the moments you create at home feel more enjoyable right from the start of your day. Order online and pick up groceries at your local Ralph's. Serving so cal for over 150 years. How to sell your car. First, go to CarMax.com. Then... Wow, this offers great. But is this just an estimate? Nope, it's worth real money. Oh, I like that. Hold on. Is my phone gonna ring off the hook with sales calls now? Not at all. You have a week to think on it. Pressure free. Okay. But then I have to drop it off. Or you can just schedule an at home pickup. That is kind of amazing. Get a real offer today at CarMax.com. Offers a good for seven days at home pickup, not available in all locations, distance restrictions, and a fee may apply.

28:56Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile with your summer price forecast. Now, unfortunately we're seeing rising costs across the country with possibility that big wireless hates you 100%. Now over here at Mint Mobile, we're seeing sunny skies and dropping prices every plan to just $15 a month. Give it a try at MintMobile.com slash switch. From payment of $45 for three months, $90 for six months, or $180 for 12 month plan required. $15 per month equivalent to taxes in these extra. New customer offer for initial plan term only greater than 50 gigabytes may slow in network is busy. See terms. Let's turn now to we run very fast moving developments. We're gonna start with this. The Houthis have now seized a very strategic port actually in Yemen. Let's put this up here on the screen. Our friend Glendizan highlights this with an excellent map so you can see the overall significance. The Houthis have now captured Mocha on the Red Sea coast. This is a strategic piece of real estate 65 to 75 kilometers north of the Babal Mandabstreet, which may which will make the blockade much more efficient. If the term Mocha sounds familiar to you, that is literally the origin that place Mocha of the Mocha.

30:02Oh really? Yes. Yemen. Yemen has a very, very important. Doesn't just sound delicious. No, it literally is named off of it. Mocha is a Mocha and Yemen actually has a very important part in coffee history. Recommend the book called caffeine if you were ever interested. But returning to what's happening here, the reason why it is very important is that the Yemeni port being so close to the Babal Mandabstreet of course gives them significant mobility to project power in the state to be able to use some of the shoulder fired missiles, minds, any of the other things that they want to deploy, not even just cruise missiles. In some cases, they've been able to fire over a thousand kilometers actually into Babal Mandab. It also comes on the heels of some stunning new data actually out of Saudi Arabia, which I believe that we do have. Let's put yes, F-5 up here on the screen, which shows how Yemen tilts to war full-scale war as the Saudi and the Houthi clashes escalate. So our friend, Rory Johnston, actually highlighted this morning, the data out of Saudi Arabia, which is also mentioned here in the New York Times article, is stunning.

31:11The official Saudi numbers reflect their lowest level of crude export or production from 1990, which is insanity. He says the most interesting part is the direct communication from Saudi Arabia and the official numbers reflect Saudi supply to market. Riyadh also says that actual production has crashed in August as a result of the Houthi maritime ban, which is mucked up and rerouted Saudi logistics and tax that have hit infrastructure. So when you put these two things together, that is genuinely shocking. All of it is now putting and showing up in the oil market this morning. Let me just make sure as of the exact moment that I'm speaking. Yep, Brent is now sitting at $105 per barrel. So again, it translates to 430 roughly national in terms of your gasoline average. Already, the diesel prices are going nuts $200 a barrel, as I mentioned earlier.

32:12So we are not in crisis territory yet, but things are tipping into some serious problems here, where there's just enough now happening on the battlefield that you can see how things are marching towards a genuine crisis point. And it's funny, I almost made a joke this morning. I'm like, oh, the Houthis took a territory. Saudi Arabia should try bombing them. That'll work. Right. Maybe we should get involved. Maybe we should get involved. It's only not we've only tried to bomb them for the last what 12 years or something like that. And the fact that they're able to have this amount of success on the battlefield, I mean, it's crazy. Yeah, completely. And reports are this morning, they were able to recapture this strategic island, Zoukar Island in the southern red sea. Again, these are all incredibly important strategic positions in terms of control over the Bob El Manda straight. There's another island right there that they're apparently working to take control over. So they very much seem to have the upper hand in this highly significant offensive, which obviously matters for them and for their war with Saudi Arabia and with the other internationally recognized, you have many government, but also has major implications in terms of the Iran war and what you're paying at the gas pump.

33:23In addition, we've got this information to put F zero up on the screen. There was this huge obviously exchange of fire between the US and run the other day. We now have some information courtesy of CBS news about the damage that the American side suffered in those strikes. So they say multiple American military aircraft suffered damage and strikes overnight on this airbase in Jordan. One A 10 Thunderbolt known as the Ward Hogg was struck and left with a missing wing roughly eight at 15 sustained light damage were placed back into service, according to us, American forces in Jordan lunch more than 30 Patriot missiles defending against the Iranian strikes. I would guess very much that is an undercount. The overnight damage came after the US attack five Iranian tankers in retaliation. So talking about significant military aircraft damaged here and another thing that's noteworthy is that Iran had the IRGC had put out this a very similar analysis of what they had been able to strike. So this is effectively confirmation of what the IRGC had been saying about the success of their attack.

34:26A couple military analysts this morning noting that this is actually the first time that they have been able to hit some of these aircraft, these specific aircraft on the ground. They knew immediately what they had hit which shows that they had satellite imagery. Of course, we already knew that because China and Russia have been supplying them with a lot of this and they have some of their own through a power sharing agreement that they have with some of these Chinese satellite companies. They were able to publish a damage assessment and it also shows you why we fired so many of those damn Patriot missiles. So like let's take a look at 15 cost. What are we looking at? 117 million. So eight of them which are damaged, the full cost 117 million, that's about a billion dollars with the aircraft there which just took a little bit of damage. The A10 got blessed as much cheaper of my favorite airplane, but you can actually still see how to knock a wing off of an aircraft. I mean, that's not even something the Taliban was ever able to do in 20 years of war in Afghanistan, especially in a targeted strike like this.

35:32So 30 Patriot missiles, by the way, they say more than 30 so the real number could be 60. Each Patriot is what? 4 million something. So four times 30 minimum of 120 million in a single five minute salvo more likely 60 so about a quarter billion that we just set on fire. Not even to mention the replacement timeline and the cost. I mean, what are we doing? This whole thing is total insanity and just shows the problem. By the way, the fact that they're able to hit all these things in Jordan, which is far away from Iran, if you want to take a look at a map, should show you how even moving outside of the immediate Gulf area doesn't mean that these things are safe. Yeah, and I was reading this morning too. They're using these more maneuverable missiles. It's making it harder for us to be able to shoot them down and there have been a lot of close calls in terms of not just this space, but also our warships in the region. Trump is claiming that the war is going to end right after the midterms that Iran is determined to hit us hard. It is interesting that this latest conflagration was right after Labor Day, which is like the traditional start of the campaign season.

36:35I have no doubt the run is focused on the midterms and trying to force a political price on Trump. The idea that they're just going to stop after the midterm seems a little bit far fetched to me, but that's what Trump is pushing. Let's play F1. I think the war will end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer. They're desperate to try and affect the election so that we can get a nice week group of people in there and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon. All they want is a nuclear weapon and if they had a nuclear weapon, the whole world is in deep trouble. But apparently his advisors are seeing things quite differently put F1B up on the screen. This is a scoop from the Wall Street Journal. You have Vance and Rubio in particular telling him that the Iran war may last through the end of his presidency. Of course, they have great interest because they're thinking about, oh, when I'm campaigning for president in 2028, how is that going to go for me?

37:37If the Iran war is continuing to drag on and gas prices continue to be sky high and all of the attendant other issues that come with the war, that's probably going to be a pretty difficult political answer. Or if they do win. This is the shits in which you have to eat on day one in the oval. Look, in closed doors, the discussions come as Trump says that the war will end immediately. But that, honestly, Tehran could continue to resist US pressure under the blockade and under military tactics, extending the conflict past inauguration day in January 2029. Now, Iran would never intentionally hold a hostage or a conflict all the way up until an inauguration day. Would they? That's never happened before. If you don't know what I'm talking about, they literally did what they did in the hostage crisis in 1970 or 1980. Yeah. I guess so. Yeah, I don't think it takes a genius to figure that one out.

38:38And in fact, that's genuinely going to be their best strategy. I also think that the fact that they're raising that in the oval office demonstrates how they're trying to prepare him for what the reality of what I think he wants to do looks like. Is he wants to keep the blockade going forever? He wants to have some sort of semblance of victory. And in fact, I mean, the most likely scenario is an escalation on the Iranian side of some kind midterms or disaster Trump has to spend probably 95% of his time just stopping investigations in the house in the Senate, impeachment, all this other crazy stuff that's happening. So what do you do? You try to reclaim the narrative by escalating the war or by taking control of foreign policy, which ultimately you're the commander in chief. I mean, it's a very natural thing for most white houses. They become obsessed with foreign policy because I can't do anything in Congress. This would be that to the end degree. Yeah, that in the ballroom and the baller. Sorry, I forgot. This Supreme Court has also said, I'm sure you can go ahead and keep building until we get around to.

39:40I mean, there's a lot of, you know, to give context like with Clinton, you know, there was this entire conspiracy at the time that the reason that he, I think either bombed bin Laden in response to the embassy attacks was because of the Lewinsky scandal or that he tried to handle it. Or he was distracted, I think, from the terrorism threat at the time. So it's not like it doesn't happen. It's a very common second term story, except here you're going to dial it all the way back up. My only point just is that, you know, things are moving in a very bad direction with $105 barrels with the Bob Almond up straight and the Port of Mocha now falling to Yemen's Houthis. They have no ability to constrain them. Obviously a Saudi bombing campaign is not going to work. We know because they tried an American bombing campaign is not going to work. And if it did, it would have to stop the, they would have to take resources away from the blockade, aircraft are all being damaged. They claim that they're back in service. Who knows, you know, whether and that's true. Like things are really reaching out. I wouldn't say crisis point yet, but you know, all the script right now is being written. Not good.

40:40All right. Thank you guys so much for watching. Appreciate it. Friday show for everybody tomorrow. See you then. This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human.