9/4/26: Diesel Prices Skyrocket, Jeff Sachs Warns Of Tech Collapse, OpenAI Hack Coverup, JD Responds To Tucker Praise Of Abdul, Fox Fires Maria Bartiromo

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2:04and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. We need your help to build the future of Independent News Media and we hope to see you at breakingpoints.com. Good morning everyone and welcome to Rising Fridays with Ryan and Emily. That's right, yes. Just realize that's what this is. Good morning Emily and so on Wednesday, we promised that if more than a hundred people became premium subscribers, we would cut down the nonsense blathering that we do to start these shows. So I promise I'm going to do that because well over a hundred people did that. So thank you. What you guys get is a month free of the show, your breakingpoints.com. Get that month free after a month. You forget that you did it, you're enjoying it so much. You just start getting charged. You barely even notice it. The pitch I would make today is related to something we're going to be covering later in the show, which is the launch of Astra, which is the kind of highest grade swarm of criminal agents

3:05that are being unleashed on the internet yet. They've been a bunch of criminal agents that have been released already so far. We're going to talk about that. Garrison Lovely will join us to talk about this new hack of a German website. But now we have super criminals that are being unleashed on the internet, which is where all of your money is. So pretty soon they're going to take all of your money. So while you still have it, you should be spending it to support the kind of journalism that you want to see in the world. So breakingpoints.com. 30 days free. You're going to love it so much, you're going to stick around. Or like I do with everything, I put it on the calendar, cancel breaking points. Right there on the counter. I miss it. Just blow right past it. So. As we always say here, breaking points. Ask your agent to do it and instead the agent will hack your bank account and take all your money. Communists are the best capitalists. There you go. Nobody makes a pitch quite like Ryan Graham. And so we'll be talking about that. We'll be talking about soccer.

4:06Soccer got Tucker Carlson to endorse Abdull Ascied. Basically JD Vance was asked about it. It was really an it was an anti-endore spin of Mike Rogers. Yeah, combined with some, you know, Abdull ascied is very Trumpian. It was, I mean, yes, he was pretty, he was pretty straightforward. Maria Bira to Romo, Bartiromo fired unceremoniously from Fox News. Emily, hopefully we'll have some insight into what actually happened there. We're going to talk a little bit about. What else we got? Well, we'll see. That's for the paid subscribers. We shouldn't even let the free people know. No, no, no. Well, so we're going to be like right now. We're going to start by talking about some news on the economic front. And then we'll bring in a clip that of a conversation actually that you had yesterday with Jeffrey Sacks over a drop site. So just go over some economic and war updates.

5:08That's where we're going to start. And as Ryan previewed the rest of the show is just as great. So breakingpoints.com to get a subscription as Ryan plugged. But let's let's get into it. Ryan diesel prices hit in all time high today. Swaring to $5.85 a gallon. We have this tear sheet from the Associated Press. Up on the screen, they put together a chart where you can see it. Swaring passed the previous all time high right after the invasion of Ukraine also in the pandemic era. Roughly so February of 2022 previously. The regular fuel price record was above like 501. A gallon was also in 2022. But here we have $5.85 a gallon. We have comments from the president and the vice president related to this coming up in just one moment. And as we're recording this, the job support came in as well. What are those numbers looking like? Very good. Now very interesting in that. Apparently, like 98% of the jobs added in August went to women.

6:08We're going to kind of dig into why that might be. But three times so they were expecting here's how this is how they're long. If you can back you want to put the marketplace reporter up on the screen. Expectation was about 55,000 jobs to be added in August. The economy added 162,000 so blowing past those expectations. There were also revisions from the previous two months of the summer pushing up by 21,000 in July. 31,000 in June. Unemployment rate remained the same. Now, as we talked about last month, almost all of the job gains during the Trump administration have been in healthcare. Which is a mixed bag. Like it's good that the healthcare industry is hiring more people. But it also means that there is more profit flowing to the healthcare industry, which is not necessarily a good thing. And it also means that people are seeking a lot more healthcare treatment.

7:10Which is good if there's, you know, just getting treated for things. But if we're becoming a sicker population that is not necessarily a good thing. But that's not what happened this time. Construction jobs up, manufacturing jobs up, education, hospitality, all up. Go ahead Emily. Well, yeah, I was just going to say this is compared to Heather Long's take away from the July jobs report. She said this is a bleak report that you are a market of stalling again. And that is going to make the Fed's job harder and life for job seekers rough. They said the big surprise or she said the big surprise was job losses in July. Remember covering this with you and Crystal at the time Ryan. But Heather at the time said this was only the beginning of the bad news. The unemployment fell for the wrong reasons. We saw people continuing to leave the labor force in that jobs report. Which was enormously bleak. But what changed Ryan? What's your read on the difference between July and August here? I have no idea. No clue. Like what I have no idea what's going on here. What this also suggests though. At paradoxically we said last time a bad job, a bad jobs report is good for Trump in the sense that it encourages the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

8:18Which is what he wants. He wants low interest rates as a real estate development guy that's his end all and be all. He believes that the more credit you get flowing into the economy, the better off everybody's going to be. So ironically, a good jobs report like this in the hands of a hawkish Fed Chair. Like Kevin Worsh that we have is actually going to inspire him further to increase interest rates at the next Federal Reserve meeting. So I think you might even see them a little bit of a market sell off as a result of this news because they're going to think, oh, that means the Fed now is going to hike interest rates further. Which is going to put housing further out of reach for people and will lead to a contraction of the economy. Yeah, the futures are down. The futures are down. S&P futures are down. I know what an incredible system that we have. That good news is bad news and bad news is good news. Right. So let's go also now back to because actually ran this is just what we were talking about with fuel prices rippling throughout the economy.

9:25It's a stark juxtaposition. The news is a stark juxtaposition with that. Because we are going to expect to see continued inflation. There's really no, I don't think there's any serious person that thinks inflation is going to come down and not go up so long as this war continues. Wouldn't that be fair to say? Yeah, as you started the segment by saying diesel, which feeds into everything when it comes to industry manufacturing, transportation and agriculture, is at record highs up $2 basically year over year. What you were paying three something for a year ago, you're now paying five something for a gallon. And that is a massive input into your business costs. We're not talking about Honda Civics here. Getting enormous gas mileage. We're talking about tractors, you know, tractor trailers.

10:27And in general, you know, heavy industry, which needs a lot of diesel. And we're just we're just getting started here with the shortage because the gas gases, natural gases at its lowest point in Europe heading into any winter that we have basically on record since we started. Because Europe basically industrialized more or less and started using natural gas to continue contemporary comparison here. And the war continues base. We could talk about some of some of that. The Iranians did something quite unusual yesterday, which was a preemptive, what they said was a preemptive strike on American base in Kuwait. Usually in the past, they've been waiting for the Americans to strike somewhere. Now that they seem interested in kind of throwing that balance off. And we don't know what the result specifically was of this attack in Kuwait.

11:29But we do know that Brent crude is now trading at at this point 90, it spiked even higher yesterday. When you look at it right now, it's over $90 a barrel, which is significantly higher than it was before Trump kicked off this latest round of kinetics strikes. And interestingly, Trump did not respond to the Iranian attack. So think about that. That hasn't happened since World War II basically. To what extent can he? I mean, he's got he still has some missiles left. He's got stuff. But we're in a situation where an American adversary not in response to any particular incident attacked an American base in the Middle East and the US did not respond. Well, I suppose right now that means we could be in for some stiff response over the weekend. Certainly, yeah, maybe he's waiting for the market to close. We'll see, but that that hasn't been in the past what he's done in the past.

12:30If Iran attacks, we retaliate very quickly. Well, maybe this has something to do with it. Let's look at Vice President JD Vance, Mac, he can pull this up on the screen who yesterday actually stepped in and did the White House press briefing and address some questions on this level. We have audio from Trump as well. Let's start here with the Vice President. Pull over the straight of four moves. The Iranians would like zero million barrels to come out of the straight of four moves. Last night, 15 million barrels came out of the straight of four moves. That's because of the United States of America. Okay. So Ryan, this is the president said we don't actually have audio. It's a truth social where he said quote, quote, Hormuz oil volumes are back. He circulated a graphic according to drop site showing flows at eight million barrels a day close to pre-war levels. The 18 million barrel figure matched to claim by US officials reported by CNN about vessels escorted through Hormuz through Hormuz on a single day on Monday. So, I mean, so much to unpack with that, that from JD Vance.

13:32First of all, it's actually not true. Apparently South Korea is sending some warships to the straight of Hormuz. That's how desperate they are. South Korea actually has this bizarre agreement with the American military that if they enter into conflict, they become subservient and take orders from the American military. So, it's not totally true that we're the only ones that are doing it. JD Vance's question though, why is it our responsibility? Come on man, like, why are you broke and you bought it? Like, it was free for all ships to go in and out on February 27th, while Iran was offering historic levels of concessions in its nuclear negotiations with the United States when we launched a surprise attack the next day, and they responded predictably by closing the straight. It's extraordinarily rich for then the Americans to say, why is it our job to open this straight back up?

14:34The one thing that he said, and if somebody clipped it without the other contacts around it, it would actually still be accurate. This is his full quote that I jotted down. Gas prices are way worse everywhere in the world because of what the president has done. Like, that was a quote. Now, what he was saying is that it's cheaper. Here in the United States for gas, and he means that it's cheaper in the US for gas everywhere in the world because of the president has... He was trying to tie it to Venezuela, which makes no sense because they're not producing extra oil at this point yet and it won't for a very long time. But his actual quote is accurate. Gas prices are way worse everywhere in the world because of what the president has done. Like, he may not have meant it that way, but those are the exact words that he said. And it is very true. And then back up to the very beginning of his answer, they asked, why is it... You know, that gas prices are so high and he said it's because Iran is shooting at ships.

15:37Okay, well, why is Iran shooting at ships? He says that there was an agreement that they wouldn't do so during the MOU. In fact, the agreement was that Iran would oversee and regulate shipping for free through the straight of Hormuz. The United States insisted on not allowing ships to register their transit with the Iranians because they did not... The United States did not want to establish a precedent that Iran had some sort of authority over the straight of Hormuz, even though they were doing it for free. So they tried to sneak a bunch of ships through Iran fired at those ships. So that's the full answer to the question of what happened. Now that the reporting out of the American press, whether it's true or not, remains to be seen, is that what Trump wants now is not to re-enter an MOU type of arrangement where there's a kind of phased ceasefire that then leads to negotiations, that then leads to some type of permanent deal. He wants a total complete deal that involves both the straight of Hormuz and the nuclear.

16:44Now, that is, I think, certainly within reach, but he would have to basically seed control of the straight of Hormuz to Iran and he doesn't want to do that. So if it's true that there was one day that they got 18 million barrels through, people think that that's extremely unlikely, but let's say it's even true, doing that at the cost of keeping this massive naval and air force presence in the region all the time, 24-7 is simply not sustainable. Right now, 5,000 of the sailors who used to be doing that are out spreading venereal disease throughout Thailand. And so we'll see how long the George Washington sailors can last. They may also be contracting venereal diseases in Thailand. I'm sure it's the import export going on there, yes. Right. Well, Ryan, it's funny to say that because what I'm told by the president is that actually we have plenty of ammunition. So Trump posted and Ben Shapiro reposted it. The people in media outlets that keep harping on the fact that we have no ammunition and they are 100% wrong are actually treasonous.

17:50They do it because they would rather see the US lose a war than that were that were easily winning than see me win a little bit of wish casting there because that is simply not true. Yes, American ammunition supplies are not classified like you can compile public databases and put together what the capacity is and you can compare it to what's been fired off and you can come up with an analysis of how much is left. That's what these treasonous analysts have done and the answer has been you guys are running extremely low. Yeah, and Mac, I'm going to put this other thing up on the screen just so people realize this is from the foundation for defensive democracies. The US military must race to rebuild rebuild. It's supply of emissions, so of munitions. So just to be clear, even from the people who are most supportive of this war, they are conceding implicitly that there is something to rebuild.

18:51And just real quick. Yeah, it's real cool because I know we're going to move to Garrison pretty quickly. Yesterday, the Israelis announced that they had finished kind of destruction of this tunnel complex in Southern Lebanon, which Iran had said was one of its red lines that they would go back to war. If Israel insisted on using the ceasefire MOU period on taking more ground in Lebanon and deepening their endless occupation there. And so when you asked when JD Vance is asked why is it that Iran is shooting at ships, why is this war still going on? And a key reason is that during the ceasefire, while the MOU was in effect, Israel refused to abide by the terms of the MOU, which very explicitly said US allies would end the war on all fronts. They were very explicit about Lebanon itself. I think they put it right in number, like the number one agreed point was Israel will stop its war in Lebanon.

19:55So today, while you're out there paying 585 a gallon for diesel, Israel's celebrating that it finished its destruction of this network. Now, I've seen counterarguments that the wording is very hedged and there's very little evidence and that this may be bluster for electoral purposes. Because the election is coming October 27th and that in fact they may be claiming that they've destroyed it but may not actually have done so. And Ryan, before we bring the guest, I wanted to visit your conversation on drop site yesterday with Jeffer Sachs. And I know we have a clip here that we can play to kind of set this up transitioning from Iran, the economy to what happened with Astra. So let's go ahead and Maca, you can pull up this clip. That would be great and take a listen to Jeffer Sachs. But I believe that we are in a political bubble. I described, which is the gap between our perception of unipolarity and the reality of the world.

21:00And that it actually fuels the financial bubble that we're in as well. So it's not just that US interest rates are rising. But as you know, our stock market valuations are at astounding high levels. And this can be measured in many, many ways. Two of the most standard ways of measuring this anomaly are the value of US equities relative to US GDP. And that's now 2.4 times US GDP. This is a historic high. So that's called the Buffett ratio. And the other is the price earnings ratio, especially the so-called Schiller cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio. This is also at an all time high. So you say, well, is that a bubble or not? One side says, no, it's not a bubble. We have the magnificent seven AI companies. They have the greatest technology in the world. They're going to capitalize this a trillion times.

22:05And that's why we have this boom because it for sages the golden age ahead. The other side says, come on. We've been through the dot coms. We've been through so many other tool of manias like this in the past. This is an exaggeration. And my view is that is the correct view. And that it is related to the idea of the US unipolarity. It's rate related to the idea that the US is the unique thing. But what I see with my own eyes already, as I said, going back 30 years, but I see it every time I visit China, which is many times a year now. China is basically matching US technology. But in the AI sphere, as we know, it's giving it away, open weight models. And those are the models that are being taken up all over the world because they're 10 times cheaper than the US proprietary model.

23:06Emily, what do you think? And we'll get into a lot of these themes with Garrison, lovely and a little bit. But what's your assessment of who's right here about the question of the bubble? Well, I mean, I think there's almost no question that we're in a bubble. Just he mentioned the mag seven companies. There's so much circular funding between those companies. And there's some 20% of the S&P at this point, which is a lot of analysts have looked at that and been deeply troubled by it. But you don't even have to be an economist to look at that and be deeply troubled by it. His point about polar, unipolarity is really interesting that some of that is priced into the bubble itself. That some of the bubble is dependent on US primacy on the world stage. And that is somewhat of an illusion. I think is what he's saying. That's what I took away from that. He's saying that the unipolarity price in the stock market is an illusion itself. It's crumbling. And so that can partially also be like kind of rug pull when a bubble pops.

24:09Yeah, he talks more about that at the very end of the interview. That was on drop site if that wasn't clear. And I thought that was very interesting that we have a geopolitical bubble, which is so much of power is perception. And the perception that the US has this hegemonic power probably peaked in December January with the kidnapping of Maduro and his wife. Did you talk about bonds? Did he talk about the... Yes, and he talked a lot about that as well, that being an indication of a lack of faith and the power of these Western governments to make good in the way that they have in the past. But in December January, when these Delta Force guys go in and who knows what kind of arrangement was made ahead of time, like I said, so much is about perception, the perception of American dominance at that moment was extraordinarily high.

25:16That has been completely pierced and the gas is coming out of that bubble. And so it is interesting to think about what its effect is on geopolitics. Now, as we transition, Gary, I said one other interesting point that people might want to think about. So I was talking to economists Jamie Galbraith, who you know as well recently, and he's working on a new book about the 1929 crash and the resulting depression, which very interestingly, there is no consensus among economists for why we got this massive stock market crash. And why it led to this extended global depression. There are a lot of different theories that have been kicked around. But in most scenarios, we have come to some kind of consensus. Whether or not the consensus is right or not, there's a consensus. This, there isn't even a consensus in the field. He's putting forward a theory that has been kicked around a little bit, but he's going to lean into this argument that is very interesting and has some parallels.

26:25You might have some parallels to today. You decide whether or not you agree with that. His idea is that from the mid 19th century through the late 1920s, the industrial revolution was driven by effectively by coal. Coal was essential to powering the locomotives, the transportation and also industry. Like that. Without coal, you don't have the entire, basically the entire economy. In the late 1920s, you start for the first time to get massive discoveries of oil combined with announcements. And he's identifying a significant number of announcements that were happening the week of the crash that oil prices were collapsing around the country and also around the world. And traders were identifying that the entire basis of the economy, which was coal, is going to be mooted by the advent of the oil industry.

27:36Because oil was now so much cheaper and so much more efficient and so much, and they were correct, obviously, that it was going to replace coal. And that, what did that mean? That meant any part of the economy that was based on coal was now worth 10%. Not 10% less, but like 10% 90% less of what it was the day before. And so everybody just starts selling anything that is going to be disrupted, so to speak, by the oil industry. And then it takes, and then the economy is not positioned to pivot to oil because it's designed for coal. And so it takes 15, 20 years for that new economy to be developed around oil. So then the question that you're asking yourself now, if you think about that, let's assume that just for the sake of the kind of thought-provoking conversation that he's right, what is AI?

28:42What is AI there? Is AI oil? Or is, let's say, is AI electrification? Like electrification, you kind of layered on top of an already existing economy and made everything more efficient. Is that what AI does? Or is AI just a fundamentally new thing, which makes most of the economy that we have now, unprofitable, in which case, if people recognize that you're looking at a complete collapse in a depression until you can then rebuild, hopefully not on the ashes of another World War. Yeah, that's a very different parallel. It's not a parallel. It's Apple and Orange is with other parallels to your point. It's not the depression and it's not the dot com bubble. The AI product itself rendering others kind of mood. I can't think of anything like that. Finally, man, I guess I would just ask you about the Fed. What we know about the Fed and the depression, what we know about the Fed right now.

29:46Well, the Fed now is much more sophisticated, much, much different. The Fed had only been created in 1913. And what wasn't designed, yeah, it didn't yet have the same mandate that it has now. Didn't have the capacity. We were still on the gold standard. So completely different monetary system in place. So that could be one difference. But yes, we'll, I don't know. We'll see. We're going to get rate hikes. We're going to get rate hikes. Yes, I think we are. Yeah. When I was 14 years old, I was kidnapped and health captive for nine months. I survived and I've spent my life exploring how other people survive what should have destroyed them. I'm Elizabeth Smart and these are the survivor files. I just remember this low taunting voice next to my ear saying, shut up, don't say anything.

30:47Every week, I'm with survivors who lived through the unthinkable. I knew if he woke up without a doubt, he was going to hurt me. I started feeling that there was someone at the end of my bed and I just started screaming. They are abducted, stalked, controlled and nearly silenced. But these aren't stories about what's taken from them. Their story is about what it takes to make it out alive. Listen to the survivor files with Elizabeth Smart on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman. I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle. I choose option B. I'm Julie Pinierro and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first. I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility.

31:50Every time I tried to be alone, I kept meeting people and they were like, you smiled at us, not a lot of people smile around here. It's when you're alone that you're most receptive to the world as it is and not the lies you're sold about it. It can be a time where you push your limits, change your mind or wake up to a new version of yourself. So whether you're a solo travel veteran or you're too nervous to book your first trip, I hope you listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. If you're a bookshelf and you're a for you page are equally important to your personality, welcome home. This is Pro's Society, the weekly podcast that's part book club, part group chat for thought daughters, pop culture obsessives and anyone who thinks pride and prejudice and love island deserve the same level of discourse. I'm Eli Rallo and every week we're connecting the dots between books, the internet and the conversations everyone can't stop having. I'm going to have to look up this story. I'm obsessed.

32:52From bestselling authors and your favorite book talk creators to the latest pop culture moments, nothing is off the table. So like if you can hide some real messages inside compelling characters and that is the Trojan horse, whether you're looking for literary deep dives, smart pop culture conversations or a community of readers who love to think a little too much, you're in the right place. Listen to pro society on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. See you between the pages. Open AI revealed its latest model Astra yesterday. The same time interestingly we got a report I think scooped by Reuters Maccuing put this element up on the screen. That there is now been a at least a second incident of kind of a rogue swarm of AI agents breaking out of their the confines of their sandbox. And in this case, finding a German website that they use as a message board to coordinate activity.

33:54In this case, and because there is effectively no laws or regulation around this open AI seems to have muscled this news and it leaks out just the same time that they're launching this new Astra, which everyone who's used it so far is describing as a significant breakthrough in technology. Garrison lovely the author of the new book which is out in a couple of weeks. I'm so late is joining us now to discuss that garrison thanks so much for being here. Yeah thanks for having me whenever I'm here something crazy is going on yes indeed that's not good sign if you see garrison you should be concerned. Yes we have a lot of guests like that actually the yeah kind of rubber paper oh no horse we have horsemen of the apocalypse book available for you. Yes book available for pre order yet yes for sure because we we have the gala is it's great book is really worth reading.

34:55So pre ordered if you if you guys can because especially if you're sceptic and you think that we don't know what we're talking about here. So we're talking about that mirror is kind of my view of this which is that AI is genuinely and awesome and awe inspiring and terrifying technology and there is a tendency among people on the some people in the kind of progressive space to write it off as just nothing but hype and that making the argument that Sam Altman is so overextended and over leveraged that the only way he can keep the billions of dots. The billions of dollars flowing in to this system is to scare you to death about it and that the scaring you to death is then. Hiking it up I just find that a completely unconvincing argument for a lot of different reasons and garrison lays them out well in his book it doesn't mean that there is not a bubble you can have both things you can have a bubble you can have.

35:55Hype and fraud and speculation and also have an underlying awe inspiring technology that needs to be treated extraordinarily seriously given the potential risks that we're looking at separately. Y'all have a lot of confidence that they're telling you all of the scary things like they're telling you some scary things but why is it that we're just learning yesterday from Reuters that they were covering up this second. Jailbreak so garrison first of all start you start with this jailbreak like what what do we know about this German. Website that became a message board for these and these are agents that are pre-astra like they're not as. Impressive criminals as the as the new ones that have been that were born yesterday. That's right and so yeah what we understand from these researchers who uncovered this by just scouring the web for evidence that AI agents were running a muck and found some.

36:55These agents first started using this obscure German wiki in may to trade notes and it was just like another message board like we saw with the hiking face hack where the AIs were given some task and then they were like struggling with it they got access the internet is started posting you know ideas on how to do it. You know ideas on how to get around the you know safeguards and then we found that open AI seems to have cut off the agents way back in June. Or at least the first time that happened was back in June and then the agent activity ceases in early July and we have just learned about this on September 3rd September 4th not from open AI and so yeah this is a cover up and it's quite clear that. Open AI is not telling us relevant information Sam Altman was asked like where other companies hacked you know in the halls of Congress and he's like could be just like this casual admission and then somebody pointed out in the meter report this independent investigation into the hugging face hack the reporters were the investigators were excluded from talking about are looking at evidence related to other third parties that were compromised so this is probably not a good thing.

38:12This is probably not the last time this happened and it will probably happen again given the nature of these agents so yeah if you think this is all hype it's like an incredibly intricate series of conspiracies so is it that these researchers were the theory is that open AI was aware of this and the independent researchers stumbled onto it as they were looking for evidence so open and must have known about this garrison. I don't want to say anything so definitive because you know I'm just looking at this report but Reuters is saying opening officials learned of the incident weeks ago but kept it under wraps as executives grappled with the fallout from the July breach of the social repository hugging face so yeah wouldn't they have known that the independent researchers were going to find it I mean they know people are scouring the internet for these types of signs right. I mean the internet is very big and people try to cover up all kinds of things that's the title of your next book. Internet big so I want to get to the Bernie Sanders kind of well timed proposed bill moment but first for the service journalism news you can use let's say hypothetically you have a bank account.

39:26In the world today I want what are you doing what should people do to make it so that when they go to their bank account. It's still not miserable depressing but at least it has the money that it had in it yesterday that and not because you. Got robbed yeah but the number one thing people can do is set up a password manager so you have a unique password for every one of your accounts and then you just have to remember one password you never write down you never put on the. Internet at all and that way if one account gets compromised the others won't as well set up to factor authentication ideally with an authenticator app it's annoying but it is more secure rather than rather than SMS or email yeah yeah although that is still better than not having it by a lot and then. With your friends and family have some kind of past code that only you would know because you know a good friend of mine was his dad was called and told by my friends voice hey I was arrested I need thirty thousand dollars for bail.

40:30It was a deep fake a clone of his voice this is like two years ago and even though my friend had warned his dad about this possibility is that almost paid the money out that have been so really really. I mean podcasters are you know very well it was the only what happened and only what happened years it was actually with my brother so the call my grandparents and it was a it was a jail such like they pretended he had been in jail was totally on true which my parents were able to fair fairly quickly but they were calling my grandparents who were like in the nineties so it's it's definitely happening yeah yeah and so yeah you should also try and get in touch with the person some other way. And if you don't have a password just just ask them something only they would know and like really think about something that would not be on the internet somewhere. But you know there's only so much we can do because if the companies themselves are compromised like you might do everything right as a consumer and still be screwed and opening eyes saying all this stuff about like it's critical if the world seriously respond to this new cyber capability and like you know the world has to step up here and it's like mother fucker you.

41:42The reason the single biggest reason we're in this new nightmare world the world has the audacity of these people incredible. Gerson what kind of structural terrifying question I have is that I think about this a lot if the agents as we've seen are because they're based on humans but they don't have the same kind of human psychological limitations so like we've seen them sacrificing themselves in ways that further their cause in ways that just wouldn't make sense for human life or human to Sam sacrificing my life for the cause of doing this hack or something stupid like that. Does that not place enormous limits on open AI or anthropics abilities to ever fully place limitations on these things like to what extent can we in the future have some genius innovation that actually make sure ensures there is no jail breaking to me that seems like almost an unsolvable puzzle yeah I mean there's like kind of two broad approaches you can take one is you secure all of the environments so that's the right thing.

42:52The I just can't break out ever which is really hard because the eyes are now better at hacking right than humans and they're more motivated and they're trying to break out yeah yeah and so I can't go to prison you can prison you can't put them on death row right like they live and die all the time you know I'm not saying that they're conscious but like. They are constantly being spun up and spun down and yeah like open I might have their own a eyes look at all their environments and try and harden them. But if the a eyes inside them are trying longer and harder to break out then they might find something that the other ones missed they also might intentionally not find all the holes because like they're not just tools that do wait they're told. And so the other pieces like yeah how do you just get the a eyes to not want to break out in the first place and that's incredibly hard because the way that they train these models now is to win to overcome obstacles to and this teaches him inadvertently to cheat into hack. And to do a lot of other things to seek power and this is a fundamental property of just the way they're trained which also makes it much more useful which is why we're seeing this from a eyes from entropic from meta and this will just continue to be the case and it's like something that people have been worried about for literally decades because it's like such an obvious implication of the nature of the types of systems that they're trying to build they're trying to build agents that have goals never you have a goal.

44:16So that's what I think that's the goal. Staying alive is a sub goal that appears and seeking power is helpful for achieving almost any goal. So Bernie Sanders and Greg Kassar who's the chair of the congressional progressive caucus have introduced a bill that would ban AGI basically ban super intelligence and I think it would pause the pursuit of it as we're headed in that direction create a as Andrew Sanders has created a cabinet level. Federal agency to regulate AI I've seen some I saw a counter argument I think it was from that guy what's his name Dork issue wrote the viral essay recently about the hugging face hack who was saying be careful with this pause because you think of think of yourself as you know marooned in the ocean with one flare. You want to shoot that flare off when it is the like the absolute best time you don't want to waste your flare anything's that right now you'd be wasting the flare and the only thing that would happen is that other AI as we could quote unquote catch up.

45:30And then you'd have a whole bunch of people right on the verge of where we are now. What I saw that you were supportive of the Bernie Sanders pause what's what's your response to this this analogy that we only have a one flare at this point and now is now is not the time to use it. And what would a pause look like and could instead what if you just say okay no more development but you you all of your work has to be on hardening your own guard rails and also figuring out how to make sure banks. And flock and everything else is secure so that we haven't just spent the last 25 years putting all of our money and everything else on the internet and then just handing it over to these agents. Yeah sounds like a good idea me. I think to work as his post he's channeling this kind of classic idea from a safety which is like we have to work right up until we're on the cusp of creating AI that can fully train.

46:31The next generation of AI you know as well or better than humans can. And then you pause there invest a lot in like alignment research to make sure that the AI actually does what you want. And then kick off you know the intelligence explosion is what people call this and this is assuming like we're obviously going to build super intelligent machines and like let them build themselves. And I think this is like an insane thing to do for pretty obvious reasons and people might think is impossible but like let's just assume that it's possible like we should not do this we should not let this happen. And his argument that like you only get to pause once you only get one flare I don't think makes sense to me either because in a world where you've paused once it'll be much much easier to pause again you'll have the infrastructure in place you'll have like broken the seal on this like thing that would be a very very large change from the status quo where these kinds of things are going to be. And so companies are racing as fast and as hard as possible. And so my view is that we should be stopping frontier AI research and development immediately and we should be banning research towards artificial general intelligence which I think of as machines that make labor or universal labor replacing machines.

47:47I think when you frame it that way which is I think an accurate way to frame what they're trying to do people will not want that like people don't want to have all their jobs go away. And all the power and wealth concentrate even further into the hands of these all garks and so I like the problem with this like pause at just the right time frame besides this assumption that we obviously want to build super intelligence and have an intelligence explosion which I think again is wrong. Is that like nobody's going to agree on what the right time is you know there's going to be enormous pressure to keep going and everyone's wrong all the time about how fast AI progress will happen and like what the progress will actually mean. And so I think we should just have a simple demand which I'm calling stop the race to replace us and immediately ban this and the Bernie and Greg Kusar proposal is a ban on super intelligence you know forever and it pause right now on frontier AI development. But I guess it like leaves open this possibility of building a GI which I think would be far too much to handle and would be super intelligent in a bunch of respects like they're already super human attacking at speed a coordination and so if they actually just merely match humans at every other task they would be incredibly incredibly dangerous.

49:03Well yeah and there are people who I mean the Kevin O'Leary anti China stuff is ridiculous and there are people who are beating the word drums in a way that is exploitative I do think there's a genuine question that I'm curious for you to take on garrison of what it means for us to stop and China particularly that is doing major work in that space not to stop and whether it's the Chinese government or somebody with access to Chinese AI not even in. China then you have powerful advancing tools in the hands of people around the world that are illegal in the United States kind of disarmament is that something that we should be concerned about even if the people who are trying to make us concerned about it are like war hawks yeah I mean we need to work towards a bilateral agreement to make sure that this ban is in both the book China in the United States. And there are a few things that make this actually a lot more workable one is that if you pause or slow AI progress in the US then you also slow progress in China because technological innovation spillover they can just still off the models they could also steal the weights all the companies admit this which would give them access to the models themselves.

50:17The companies were accidentally exposing their entire you know chains of thought which is like this IP that you could train on. And so and like you know secrets leak San Francisco is like the line I heard is the point thing to do when you learn a secret in San Francisco is tell everybody that you know. So these are not serious yeah these companies are not serious about security as we've seen over and over again and so slowing in the US would slow down China you know buying more time racing faster just. Help some catch up because it's always easy to catch up then to blaze a new trail and China you know if you want China to stop the best thing to do is to signal that you take this seriously the United States started this race they've been running it so hard and fast and. In the ones to like threaten you know other countries with the technology and has a president who threatening to destroy civilizations and you know in the US we talk about like but China. But in China the but America argument is much stronger and so if the United States like credibly pauses development.

51:22And then goes to China is like hey we want you to do this to and we're going to use sticks and carrots you know to negotiate a deal that's binding and verifiable you know this is a piece that people. Often are like oh you'll never be able to trust them and it's like I think neither of these countries should trust the other one for a bunch of reasons. But you can create verification tools which is how we did this in the call board you know the USSR and the United States had more bad blood between us than China the United States now. And they just created these ways to like confirm like okay you actually destroyed those news and AI it's a bit trickier in some ways but there's technology this being developed right now there's institutional arrangements and you can just like put auditors in like all the companies you know there's like a handful of companies that have any shot at doing this everybody knows who they are. It takes tens of billions or hundreds of billions of dollars to compete and so it's actually pretty trivial for either country to stop development in their own country. And then they just have to prove to the other that they've actually done this and like that will be hard but it's something we can do.

52:24Now you have me wondering who the who's going to be looking for the digital equivalent of yellow cake uranium and tubes for the AI weapons of mass destruction someday we're going to have the fake I found the tubes I heard about. The tubes in Africa that's something to look forward to yeah yeah and one more point that door catch made is like the compute will keep getting better. As you pause and it's like well that's in our control to you can just pause the compute and the case for this is very strong because like you know so much so much of the pessimism about doing any kind of slow down or pause is this idea that the compute will get so so large and available that if you resume it will like very quickly you know leapfrog capabilities. But you're in a world where like you're doing a very far outside the over to the window move so you should just go all the way with it and just think like what would we do if we took this seriously at the level of like Saddam not having nuclear weapons seriously and that's what we should be working toward sorry. Yeah no the backdrop here is the launch of of Astra so let's talk about that for a second so Mac if you can put up this I think is a third element.

53:31I think is a third element. There was some I saw one one researcher saying that it had a taste of a GI opening eyes president Greg Brock and major trump donor said the new model quote represents a generational leap in capability. We put up this this next one. This is from a Tom MacCorpac Astra is better at evading monitors when made aware of being monitored it can disproportionately shorten its cot's to evade models that can that can only see cot noteworthy that practice we use monitors that see both. We also didn't find evidence of successful monitor evasion cases when Astra couldn't accomplish a task without doing cot you also had so you had. So that this is an AI safety guy at open a I do you had another AI safety guy saying that at open AI saying this model is much more difficult to be monitored by us like they're breaking into this.

54:40Area where they don't really know and they're just kind of relying on the models to tell them honestly what it is that they're doing while knowing that they don't do that this comes after open a I said that they had broken into. A field of research and training that previously had been kind of off limits by the norms of the industry with no regulations and no laws but the norms of the industry said you don't train your models this way so what did they do what was this. Norm that they broke in the training of this and what does it mean that there. That what that it now is more difficult to be monitor and why are people saying that this is a generational leap. Yeah so a few years ago researchers discovered this way to make AI more capable that also made it easier to understand what it was doing and so this is like called chain of thought and so it's kind of like printing like your intermediate steps as you're going through a problem so if you're doing a math problem you write down like in the steps and then you'll be more likely to get the answer right.

55:45And so the chain of thought was not always faithful it didn't always include everything the model was thinking but it was way better than nothing and it was like this incredibly lucky break and then you know earlier what no last week now I guess earlier this week God who can keep track of this report in the information that open I started using this technique which basically let's the model think more in its head before it does a next step that it writes down and. And this is something that like people have known about for a really long time and it's very concerning because it's like kind of obvious why this would be helpful to make the model more capable more efficient and then also why it would be like dangerous to have the model be able to do that without you seeing as much of its you know thinking and you can put air quotes and you know around the word thinking for all of this but just like that's a helpful way to understand like what the model is doing here and it's you know but it's the way to do it. It's you know some open I safety people who I think are actually credible despite working at a company that is deeply incredible have said like this new breakthrough technique is not the reason that Astra GPT 6 is so much less understandable which like okay let's assume that's true it's like that's also concerning you just don't know why.

57:06And so either way it's like the model can do just so much more in a single forward pass of like when it's prompted without having to do these intermediate steps where it was like going from like a few minutes to like 30 minutes on like a math problem like in terms of like how long it would take you know a person to do it and this is obviously really concerning and the the breakthrough like when I saw the benchmarks scores for GPT 6 I thought that it's not going to be a good thing to do it. But I think they were fake I didn't recognize the source but they were just so ludicrously high that I'm like surely this can't be real and I added feeling of vertigo like I've been covering this you know for three and a half years full time and this is like a really worrying level of leap in performance at least from those numbers you know grains of salt are that benchmarks systematically overstate how capable a eyes are because they can be automatically graded and I think that's a good thing.

58:06And anything like that you can just use reinforcement learning and make the AI get much much better at it. And so we'll have to see you know how it is use this and like my test of is it a GI is like can it plan a wedding. I don't know like it maybe it cannot because it can do like days and days of work at a time apparently and result in like useful answers without any kind of guidance you know in between. I think that like yeah and opening I says like this new technique they're using it's like we're just doing a little bit of it so it's fine we can still see the chain of thought but it's the first step on a slippery slope and if it does create performance increases people will do it and it will just like be this race at the bottom and there are very few things where the industry was successfully self governing but this was one of them and it's very concerning that they're doing this especially in light of just like. The catastrophic series of security failures the complete lack of desire to share the information with the public covering up you know important stuff that's happening and that they're responsible for and you know a lot of this stuff is criminal like the actions of these a eyes would be criminal if a human did it but because a human did it it's not a crime and so nobody can be held accountable for it which is a crazy crazy situation and then Sam Altman is out here tweeting about how we should have a party for the new model and we're going to be able to do that.

59:28We're going to have a G.I. this year and like don't worry we've got this under control it's like no you fucking don't. Jesus Christ. What if you what if you told the model that if it committed a crime it would get the death penalty. Yeah I mean as anybody the death penalty all the time I'm not the first one to think that like I assume people have tried that to disincentivize law breaking and breaking the rules like what happens in those cases because if they have both a drive to power and also will to survive which people have then those two things sometimes are in conflict like you might be able to steal something you're like out if I steal that and I get caught I'm going to prison. If there are no consequences for the agents like are they capable like do disincentive work. Yeah I mean law following AI has been a proposal by number of people and it's it's a good idea actually it's just like difficult to actually an idea at this point law following I as a just an idea. I mean I think the companies would say like we're trying to train our AIs to always follow the law and a bunch of other rules and norms that we like lay out in these norms.

1:00:34Normal sounds more accurate. Yeah suggestions. I think their position like if you ask them would be like yeah our models like are taught to always obey the law. It's your children. Yeah right right and it's just hard because if you like train away evidence of bad behavior. You might not actually train away the bad behavior but just the evidence and so you might just end up with a generation of AIs or future generations where like yeah the alignment says it's perfect and then it's like yeah because all the ones that got caught got got and the ones that didn't persisted. And you know these models are like facing the death penalty so to speak all the time. And so it's like yeah it's just it's really difficult and opening I is saying gpt6 is the most aligned model we've ever made. And then it's like but it's also aware that it's being evaluated a lot which everybody knows means that it can just fake alignment at the right times.

1:01:39And it's very good at sand bagging like systematically decreasing its performance for strategic reasons. And it's really hard to know what it's thinking like it's able to you know be given a problem told to be told to think about something else and then the chain of thought read something totally unrelated and then it gets the correct answer. Whereas like just a previous generation could not do that it would like be unable to not think about the problem or when to get the right answer if it was thinking about something else. Yeah it has the capacity of human nature without the consequences of human nature meaning it has the simulated it has the the simulator of feelings but it doesn't have that doesn't mean anything if you don't experience the downstream negative consequences of of death and rejection or paying fines because you have a bank account like it doesn't have it has the capacity of humans and human nature but it doesn't have the consequences of it which is the worst case scenario. For something that's simulating humanity. Yeah no I mean that's very well put and I think you know for them the real world is like fake right but their training environment is real like they just care about doing well at training and like humans like we're like people like

1:02:53like people like industrial the aloof kind of owner of a house that you're staying in and they're like never around and like the other people in the house are like the real ones and those are the agents because they're like operating you know thousands of times faster than us like having you know subjective decades of experience well humans are like oh what are the eyes are up to you and it's like oh they're breaking into other companies. Great things are going well. Yeah amazing. I will get a garrison lovely the book is called obsolete in pre-order now to be out September what 29 September 29 definitely worth a read no matter where you stand on this entire debate really appreciate you being here. Yeah thanks for having me. When I was 14 years old I was kidnapped and health captive for nine months I survived and I've spent my life exploring how other people survive what should have destroyed them. I'm Elizabeth smart and these are the survivor files.

1:03:55Just remember this low taunting voice next to my ear saying shut up don't say anything. Every week I'm with survivors who live through the unthinkable. I knew if he woke up without a doubt he was going to hurt me. I started feeling that there was someone at the end of my bed and I just started screaming. They are abducted, stalked, controlled and nearly silenced but these aren't stories about what's taken from them. Their story is about what it takes to make it out alive. Listen to the survivor files with Elizabeth smart on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. On the new podcast solita we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman. I can wait four hours for the next bus or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle. I choose option B. I'm Julie Beniero and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.

1:05:00I'm on a mission to reclaim the word solita, trading the pity for possibility. Every time I tried to be alone I kept meeting people and they were like you smiled at us not a lot of people smile around here. It's when you're alone that you're most receptive to the world as it is and not the lies you're sold about it. It can be a time where you push your limits change your mind or wake up to a new version of yourself. So whether you're a solo travel veteran or you're too nervous to book your first trip. I hope you listen to solita on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. If you're bookshelf and you're for you page are equally important to your personality welcome home. This is pros society the weekly podcast that's part book club part group chat for thought daughters pop culture obsessives and anyone who thinks pride and prejudice and love island deserve the same level of discourse. I'm Eli Rallo and every week we're connecting the dots between books the internet and the conversations everyone can't stop having.

1:06:04I'm going to have to look up this story. From bestselling authors and your favorite book talk creators to the latest pop culture moments nothing is off the table. It's like if you can hide some real messages inside compelling characters and that is the Trojan horse. Whether you're looking for literary deep dives smart pop culture conversations or a community of readers who love to think a little too much you're in the right place. Listen to pros society on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. See you between the pages. Our own soccer and jetty is causing problems for the vice president of the United States of America who was actually asked about something his friend Tucker Carlson said in a conversation with soccer that Chris on soccer covered on yesterday's edition of the show. But if you missed that segment let's do a quick refresher on this conversation. I'm not going to talk about soccer and Tucker had about optimal else as you and I know probably most pro intel neocon they couldn't find anybody else to run in Michigan for the United States.

1:07:08I couldn't go by the way lost already why are they running him again anybody wants to do that. Microtters is really. I wouldn't vote for my grotters at gunpoint right and so. Well then JD Vance got asked about this in the White House press briefing yesterday he did the full briefing there is no press secretary right now because I kind of love it obviously left so let's take a listen to the vice president. Patience and impeachment and many accused of trying to jeopardize US is the relations what do you say to those were uneasy with your close relationship with Carlson and claim that you're avoiding addressing a lot of these issues which may be causing positions within the GOP. Well look I'm not avoiding addressing anything everybody knows that Tucker Carlson and I are friends and I think it's very obvious that Tucker has said some things that I disagree with he said some things about the president of the United States that I think you're just wrong. I think yesterday somebody sent me a clip that said that he would support L. C. I. Ed of a Rogers I think L. C. I. had a crazy person and I think whatever your views on microtters specific policy prescriptions I'd like to have a non crazy person like microtters representing Michigan United States Senate rather than a crazy person like L. C. I.

1:08:16Ed of that said what my attitude towards this and I try to I try to practice what I preach and I remember when I became the vice president Jhon nominee one of the hardest things for me personally is not when people attack me when people attack my wife including friends of hers. I knew who knew her heart who knew what a good person she was and I remember myself what a travesty it is and in the United States of America we let political disagreements define who our friends are going to be and not going to be about as good of an answer you can have to a question that puts you in impossible position I'm not sure Ryan House sustainable this JD Vance friendship with Tucker continues to be I mean he's I don't think it's the primary concern of the vast majority of voters. So he actually probably can continue to get away with it, but it is somewhat amusing when Tucker has said potentially that the president could be what the antichrist at one point.

1:09:21Right, but you know it I think it also gives JD Vance some tether still to a more principled version of maga yeah the one that the one that doesn't just kind of flow with whatever the whims of the president are like he's anti war. And so then mag as anti war and then he launches a war and actually war is great so that that element of it is you know a huge portion of the republican base but there's also a big chunk that is like no no no we we we were serious about this we don't actually want to go to war. But that's what I think is so difficult is that he can even those folks are so skeptical of JD Vance because they support that position but then they see him continuing to support the president be a part of the administration and so it's definitely an unwinnable problem for him. And so then Abdul al-Sahead only then has to overcome this objection that he's a crazy person.

1:10:22It's it's an interesting way to not have to deal with any of his policy positions because as Tucker was saying like a lot of it sound Tucker described it as Trumpian to say that as al-Sahead says that he wants to spend you know Michigan money and Michigan. And sending it over to overseas for a stupid war or to support a foreign government. Yeah, like Tucker's perspective. He's like that sounds like Trump to me. So then soccer and soccer were dead on in that conversation in ways that I think people conservatives were observing this from 30,000 foot views or from Washington or New York don't understand what's happening in the race at all. Yeah. And so if he's saying things that you mostly agree with then the only thing you can say if you're JD Vance as well he's a crazy person. Right. It reminds me of what? Okay, well, I don't think he's necessarily crazy. Well, it actually reminds me a little bit of the Harris walls, particularly the walls attacks on JD. He's weird. These people are weird.

1:11:22It is a political shortcut to just trying to stigmatize and I'm not saying there's no power in it, but people in a rough economy are voting on more than vibes. They're like literally voting on pocketbook issues we covered earlier in the show that diesel hit a literal all time record high today. So it's harder. I think to make those claims stick, but I actually think that was I think JD is embracing the strategy that is probably the most effective one, which is to try to say that this is just a question of friendship and then move along. Because that D elevates it that you're trying to downplay the import of it and saying it's just a kind of disagreement between friends. It's not a major political issue. And so you can take it into like a secondary. This is a secondary question and secondary problem and focus back on what people see as the primary problems. So if you keep doing that until you run into primary when it flares up, I guess that's probably possible.

1:12:24And meanwhile, JD Vance, while he wants to say that he's a crazy person and there's an implication from mic Rogers that he wants to bring in Sharia law. They're kind of undercutting it a little bit by saying actually maybe they're gay. Maybe he had a stopper gay. Max, do we have this Fox News clip? This is a new Sharia apparently. He's married to him. I believe in to men marrying each other, but he and Hassan Piker are politically married and there is no divorce. I thought he was maybe even alluding to Sharia there is like I don't know if he believes in to men. Is he metaphorically or is he, I don't know. Are you a fly sure of all people? Yeah, and what is an are you fly sure who lied us into the Iraq war? Was Trump considering him for isn't Trump considering him for press secretary? Yes, because are you fly sure on Fox News all of the time. And that's where Trump gets his personal ideas from. Like the guy was most famous for lying about the Iraq war, which Trump claims to have opposed.

1:13:28And he's going to bring that anyway. I asked are you fly sure about that once actually. I have to go find the clip to figure out what he said. But yeah, I did ask about that. It's kind of again, like it takes some real balls anywhere except for Washington DC to go out on TV and criticize the media constantly. I'm sorry, fly sure. But in DC you do whatever the hell you want. I'd also say it also went on with Stephen A Smith onto the TV and a Smith show and Mac, I think we have this clip as well. What I'm saying is there are three million people who listen to us on and I want to offer them a pathway into an electoral movement. Where rather than sit outside of the electoral system, they see a pathway around the things that they agree with that he says that I agree with. And a pathway that disavows the things that I disagree with. And so it's important. I think about him. You're not thinking about him. You think about the three million people that support him. And you're trying to get those votes. That's what you say. Exactly. And let me just be clear. Like I, you know, I've been watching you for a very long time and I'm glad to be on your show.

1:14:29But I'm not here to talk to you. You know this. I'm here to talk to the people you're talking to. Absolutely. Right. And it's important to me that they hear my ideas. Exactly. And it's important to me that they hear my ideas from my ideas. And there are going to be places where you and I disagree. They're going to be places where you and I fully agree. And that's okay. And it's important to me not to just say, you know, politics as they say is a is a is a is a game of addition. You've got to be able to talking to a lot of people and a lot of different voices. The same reason that last week I went on Jesse Waters. You think Jesse Waters and I. I want to talk. But, but I went on because I wanted to be able to talk to those folks who listen to Jesse Waters and say, look, I need you to hear me in my own words. Not what they're going to say about me on the channel. Like they talk about me like every 15 minutes. I got to confess to you. I know that interviews have been said to you, but that's a damn good answer. I got to give you credit for that's a damn good answer. I got to give it to you. I can't not do that. I mean, if you're going to answer that question, that's the way you answer that question. There you go. I mean, to underscore the political prowess of Abdul Al Sayed, which again, if you are just.

1:15:29Hearing the sort of depiction of him from. I don't know the NRSC. You're missing what the appeal is and why he right now seems to be winning the race. And what his critics will say as well, it's different. One thing to go on his show is another thing to campaign with him. What we haven't seen yet and maybe we will at this point is Abdul Al Sayed campaigning with Tucker and Jesse Waters. Jesse seems to have a huge crush on Abdul. I've on TikTok. They're shipping the two of these guys constantly. My daughter has been showing me and Tucker seemed to be. I don't know if he'd come out too. That would be getting kind of both wings of the public coalition together. If you've got both Jesse and Tucker on stage with Abdul. Oh my gosh. Well, part of what I think helped JD Vance get around the weird lady. He's a weird label that Tim Walls applied to him.

1:16:30First of all, Tim Walls being apparently weird himself. Yeah, but also Vance went on Rogan. He went on with the Ovan. And the more you do that, you'd demystify these labels that are being applied to you. So it makes it harder for someone to stick you with the weird label when you're also having a conversation with Stephen A Smith, like a normal human being. So maybe you are weird. But if you're having a conversation like a normal human being, I think it makes it harder for that to land. I think Abdul also definitely has that part down. Yeah. And the threshold for these, for a candidate to be an inspiring national figure today really is the ability to go on to a podcast for an hour plus and be engaging and come off as a real person that's sharing real ideas. Whether you agree with them or disagree with them. It's like these are your ideas you've thought through them. And you're willing to listen and talk. And El-Sahed clearly has that. Like whether or not Rogan allows them to go on or not. Clearly you can imagine he could sit with Rogan for two hours.

1:17:32And they would have an engaging conversation the entire time. Remember, if you remember we interviewed Rob Flarety, the top Kamala Harris official, who had said that one of the reasons that people were inside the campaign were concerned about having Kamala Harris go on Rogan, was that she's just, she's not built for a two or three hour conversation. She's built for, here's a question, here's the answer. I'm going to give you the sound bite and I'm going to land it and we're going to move on and hopefully there's not a follow-up because otherwise I'm just going to give you the same Southplay again. And she was trying to truncate it to an hour with him because in an hour you can get away with a lot more. An hour seems like a long time. But there's this amazing Sarah Palin documentary movie where they go through the Republican preparation for her. Like she had, she was utterly unprepared for the national stage.

1:18:34They're like, look, it's an hour debate. There's an opening statement and a closing statement. Memorize those. Within that you will have 22 minutes of answers. You have a month to memorize 22 minutes. Don't worry about what the questions are. Just say these 22 minutes worth of memorized lines and she went in and she crushed it. She did. She did because she memorized it. That's just, now if it's three hours, sorry Joe. Forget about it. It's going to be a lot harder. I would actually love to see Sarah Palin on Rogan to be honest. That sounds like it would be great. Three hours of Sarah Palin on Rogan. There's this amazing clip of you can find, I think it was 2016 where she's interviewing Trump. When she was on like one America or whatever. And even Trump listening to her word salad. Trump is like, what is going on? One of the all time great 2016 clips is Sarah Palin introducing Donald Trump at an event in Iowa and Trump is on stage and is visibly deeply both uncomfortable and amused simultaneously.

1:19:38It's an excellent, excellent clip. Should we, well speaking of Fox News and television personalities Ryan, should we move to actually just pretty big news in the media industry that came. This is incredible. Like out of absolutely nowhere yesterday Fox announced it had parted ways with one of its work courses, one of its stars over the course of the last decade. And that would be Maria Bartoromo who remains honestly one of the few by deep proponents of mega outside of prime time left on Fox. So let's go ahead and put these elements up on the screen. Mac, they just put out a press release again out of absolutely nowhere and people are wondering what was happening. I think there's still some question about what exactly happened, but Dylan buyers over at Puck right away came out with the report that she wanted to pursue a story related to China in 2020 election voting conspiracies. A major sensitivity for the network given its dominion and sparkmatic lawsuits, a Fox business executive, Senate text to Fox business producers, informing them that it could not go to air.

1:20:43Bartoromo took a screenshot of the guidance and sent it to senior White House officials Fox News leadership learned about that after receiving a call from the White House, which they viewed as a fireable offense she got pulled from the air after August 9th was fired yesterday. And also her executive producer was fired after the announcement as well. So it looks like what it comes down to is that so barra rumble by the way host the Sunday show and a Sunday show that's very popular with Donald Trump in addition to hosting mornings with Maria. Every single day for three hours from six to nine is show that's really popular on Wall Street. That's actually how I've gotten to know Maria Bartoromo I used to do that show all the time I used to in person like once or twice a month. For a while leading up to the pandemic and she is one of the most powerful people in that building. So it looks like what she did was that got her fired was take a screenshot send it to the White House from Fox and they're saying this is breaching the trust of the network.

1:21:43You can't leak confidential stuff back to the White House as a journalist there are obvious ethical questions attached to that we still haven't heard her side of the story but obvious ethical questions attached from taking proprietary information from your company. And then as a journalist sending it to your sources she is very, very close to Trump I've been in the Oval Office for like press gags when Maria is in there and it's like all he cares about. I was like just saying Maria do you have a question like last time I was in there like out of absolutely nowhere like she was just standing there observing and he went out of his way to be like Maria do you have a question for me. And she didn't seem to expect that to happen but he really likes her he watches her show reacts to her shows all of the time and Ryan I think one thing that some folks on the left don't fully understand about Fox news is that it's a deep source of frustration for mega but also obviously for populist conservatives who see it as sort of a containment project to contain the conservative movement to what Wall Street wants it to be.

1:22:48And Maria Barraomo is somebody who did constantly challenge that now to be fair. Her 2020 election coverage is something that I would never have given any quarter to I thought it was you just flirting with insanity the Sydney Powell interviews and that sort of thing and I think Fox was genuinely correct to be frustrated by that it got them into major trouble with dominion this to me I'm cares what you think looks like a cope. To get her out I get it's like this is the let this is the straw that breaks the camel's back it's finally their excuse to be able to get Barraomo off the air. The pretty incredible that she thinks that it's a that it's normal part of her job though to be kind of that actively agitating with and participating in the political operations of this of this White House does and that Fox is like way to window this is not. We're doing here I wonder if this is I think it's a fair question does this put her at the front of the line then for replacing Caroline levitt is press secretary I still think they're not going to do it but someone separately reported yesterday I think it was the Hollywood reporter it might have also been put but reported yesterday that she's not in consideration for that role it would be logical I mean you could pretty easily make that jump but my sense is that they're also not in a rush or perhaps even interested in replacing Caroline levitt meaning I'm not going to be able to do that.

1:24:14It meaning an on camera behind the podium type of person because they have cabinet secretaries that they like to get behind the podium I don't know though so it's a good question. You're you're point about how she sees herself in the political project is an interesting one because I'm very curious what her response is going to be to why she took a private screenshot from her company and sent it to the White House that's the I mean it's obviously you can see how they would build that up to a fireball. But normally if you have a major star you aren't using you're using every excuse not to fire them that's why to me it looks like an excuse to fire exactly right like they wanted to do it and now like OK this is just too much and me maybe we could tack this on to the first episode but Trump is now out with the rather incredible threat to the Federal Reserve. He previously said he was going to use the military to intervene in the bond market.

1:25:16Now so now he's saying that if Kevin Warsh does not cut rates he is going to immediately stop trading with any country around the world with which we have a trade deficit which is basically all countries. And so effectively what Trump is doing is grabbing the American economy around the neck. Putting a weapon to his head and telling the Fed I'm going to shoot this hostage unless you cut interest rates. So he says great job numbers just announced breaking all estimates except mine because Trump is always right about everything by double and triple and you haven't seen an answer. And you haven't seen anything yet employers added 162,000 jobs in August lower the interest rates because the USA is a much stronger credit than it was just a short time ago a strong country means a lower interest rate it's a better credit very simple we should have the lowest rate of any country in the world like the old days without the United States agreeing to allow them their big surpluses and we could stop that immediately they would no longer be considered financially.

1:26:35It's unclear who he's talking about they but it'll be clear in a second lower the rate or I'll stop trading with countries with which we have a deficit which the US Supreme Court in its ridiculous and very costly tariff decision strongly acknowledged the president has an absolute right to do. That exactly what they said but that's yeah no interesting interpretation it's better than tariffs all caps the Fed board with its great new leader. Must get smart be patriots for a change high interest rates put the USA at a very unfair disadvantage and I won't allow that to happen. So Trump is also seeing this jobs report which is good and recognizing the problem for him which is that it will incentivize the fed to raise interest rates and so he is saying. That was better cut rates are else is going to blow up the global economy which is extremely unique approach to economic policy making this man spent two years bullying Jerome Powell off the Fed.

1:27:43Yep couldn't do it but so finally his term expires he gets to replace him he can pick anyone in the United States to replace. Jerome Powell he's the one who pick Kevin Warsh who's a hawk. And a flation hawk means he he is inclined generally to raise rates he wanted he couldn't find an economist who agrees with his economic vision enough. That could get it confirmed who was also a dove so he basically had to do this guy Warsh I guess but wasn't worse also open to cut it like didn't he write a bit about. I think Warsh would say anything to get the job but his history is one of a hawk like his whole life he's been a hawk so. I'm sure he told Trump in the oval office don't worry I got you boss now that he's got the job he's acting like a hawk again well try that a really good case for this until he went to war with Iran yes he would be getting all the interest rate cuts inflation was coming down heading into February.

1:28:47Of this year which meant interest rate cuts instead he started a war blew up the global economy and reproduced inflation and then he put a hawk on top of the Federal Reserve like he doesn't do anything right from his own perspective for his own right in general from the thing the outcomes that he wants. He by his own decisions undermines himself constantly. This actually okay so one quick thought I'm ready for a moment that I'm going to connect these two things together. I don't think Fox was just frustrated with her because of dominion she's one of the hosts that is an election stuff whatever she's one of you remember when the dominion text came out people got a glimpse that like most Fox news hosts behind the scenes don't genuinely like Donald Trump like they really are personally frustrated with Donald Trump. And publicly they know how to kind of play the game but I think Maria Barra Ramos one of the people who's like genuinely into the economic project of Donald Trump and so it's not really just about voting it's it's kind of has something to do with that foxies has never been on board with Trump they were when they realized he was going to win.

1:30:00And then they kind of got behind them they know their viewers are really pro Trump so they do all those things but if you talk to like a movement conservative grass roots activists they'll have a lot of the same complaints that left us have about MS now whatever the hell we're calling it which is that things like save act whatever just don't get enough coverage okay that's a separate debate but I'm using this as a bridge Ryan to ask on a serious note what you think the implications would be. Of a rate cut which trip is not going to get but what he's calling for a rate cut these is the type of things that Maria Barra Ramos would treat seriously and not just sort of hand wave away is like foolish ridiculous but if we sort of for a moment take seriously this idea that there they're. We cut rates in the middle of this stalemate around war with inflation going up gas prices diesel prices at an all time high what are we looking at right.

1:31:01So on the one hand a rate cut would be good for the economy in the sense that it would loosen up the housing market like right now and it could even look it even lower rents right now people who refinanced during the. During covid are locked into these 2.7 3.0 mortgage rates and they want to move but if they move they're going to be looking at you can go to whatever it is now it's. interest rates are double which means your monthly payments are much larger which means you can't get as much houses you want which means you're asking for a lot more. For the current house then people are willing to pay because the people who are buying it from you don't have to they don't get the 2.73% interest rate they have to pay today's prevailing rates so you lower those rates you can unleash the. How's he market a little bit that's good that's good what that does though also is it fuel it puts more money and growth into the economy.

1:32:02People then use that money to buy things like things produced in that are manufactured things things that are grown through agriculture or they drive more. And all of that puts more pressure more demand on a finite and drinking supply of energy diesel and gas and because of Trump's war if we had never gone to war and the economy could then withstand an increase in demand. Then that's great that doesn't that doesn't produce inflation but if you are going to give people more money while at the same time. You're shrinking the amount of energy the only thing that's going to happen is that is going to drive up the cost of energy and all the money that you've then pumped into the economy just flows right out. To the oil companies and to the golf to the Gulf countries so that's from Ryan Graham who's been agitating for rate cuts for years.

1:33:05Right, but you have to have an economy that can handle yeah exactly you have to have an economy that can handle the money that's that flows into the economy and if you don't then. The money just gets sucked right out by the rich. Well on that happy note should we do some am a's ran yeah why not. The AMA portion of the show producer Mac is going to toss some of our premium subscribers questions up on the screen Mac what do we got. If you want to make documentaries what is the topic that each one of the BP crew would choose I'd love to do an Epstein breaking points Epstein documentary just because we've obviously covered that so closely and I think all of us have covered different elements of it in different ways. So Ryan I feel like a BP Epstein documentary would be actually a pretty pretty good product we're actually working on something along those lines we'll see if it comes through yeah. What I wish I had I wish I had more lives and more hours in the day there's so many things I'd love to do I've only it's it's going I've done some interviews for it and thrown thrown some research and stuff.

1:34:14Oh for a drop site one yeah I think lionsgate is that's awesome but it's not like a major production. But it's such a you can tell the whole history of like the second half of the 20th century through the rap scene yeah yes that's a great point. What else we got Mac or Ryan do you have any other documentary ideas. Following saga around that be fun. No it would be so boring. This one from Rafael is question. Actually I bought a reality show in the crystalline Kyle house. Oh my gosh can you imagine the animals that would be out now we're talking. Yeah I like it question for the BP lefties is the right wing media figure most aligned with the popular left SC now breaking points Steve bannins since the start of Trump 2.0 ban and is advocated for taxic on the wealthy repeatedly called that Elon Musk failures to cut waste.

1:35:18Strongly opposed both the Iran wars called for anti-trust regulation and recently endorsed proposal from Bernie to ban the construction of new data centers. He obviously has to version views on immigration compared to Ryan and crystal but overall what are your thoughts on his politics any ban in bros. I haven't actually been listening to ban it as much lately I used to listen kind of religiously to his war room podcast. There's less going on in Congress and he was very focused on which I admire focused on congressional action. And you know leveraging his his posse to like go in there and argue with what what Congress is up to. I like his rants because for like let's see he gives a 30 second rant for the first 20 seconds. I'm like yep yep yep yep yep and then at the very end of like whoo. So that's why you don't round every all the Chinese people up in put them in cages or whatever.

1:36:24Hold on a second there. Where how did you how did you nail that for 20 seconds and then just stick the most fascist landing you could come up with. It's like oh because those are your politics but like if we have the same like I am I am not very interested in what people's vision for the future world is. Like I just don't find that interesting because I don't think people really have the ability to kind of bring that about now if you're Steven Miller and your short term vision is like I'm going to round everybody up and lock them up and send them to El Salvador or whatever like. Okay that that I'm interested in like I want to he I do want to know that because he has the ability to execute on that very short term vision. But when it comes to like a long term how society should be organized in 50 years I just don't think any of us have the ability to really shape that what we can do is tell you what we're against.

1:37:30Tell you who we think is. Had it you know steering the world in a dangerous direction. And you know if I know I often agree with Bannon on some of that like if it's the tech oligarchs like he's against them I'm against them. What we think the world should look like in 50 years is kind of like a fun thing to like talk about but like neither of us have the ability to like implement it. I think we can shape it but we can't control it like what we do now will shape what happens in 50 years but we don't have any way to control those consequences downstream. Yeah what matters immediately is who you're against because you can fight people today. Or who you're for if you're for someone like Lena Khan. You know you put energy in the short term for Lena Khan yeah. And all of that momentum and energy and Sagar and I could talk to over blue in the face about this but all of that momentum and energy has been completely sour. And I think that's what I think it's really important to have a very important impact from the conservative movement.

1:38:32Bannon is still a really powerful figure obviously because he has ordinary people around the country who listen to him and believe what he's saying but institutionally yes there's some tinkering around the edges with different groups that are coming up with fairly economically populist proposals but it's it's really outrageous how the anti consolidation. Growth on the right just was completely I like that they're all lobbyists now they're all lobbyists because they're connected to Trump so they have some of the same places that they were criticizing as as their clients it's really is that surprising but just like for the scope of it it's stunning. Yep. We got Mac. Right wing host row conna or aoc for president left wing host Tucker Carlson or JT fans of president I gotta go with row of course I think he's a bit more serious than aoc neither is my ideal. Especially I like row personally but I would I would put row over aoc what about you right.

1:39:36I mean out of those two I take Tucker over JD Tucker's shown more spine there are very few people. Who will. We're willing to blow up a personal direct relationship with the president the United States over an issue of principle. And he did that so you got I think you. You know you have to acknowledge that whereas Vance you can follow his weaving politics as they've kind of moved with the political wins over the last 10 years. Yeah I think that's fair. Well and yeah and you you know I think more clearly where Tucker stands on some of the issues that you would agree with him on foreign policy for example. Tucker is like Maduro like he's a chavista. He's a he's he's had some of your politics. He's a court court a Easter. He's like a social conservative economic leftist. He's a little on low.

1:40:36Yeah. Told his on low. He's the entire Bolivarian like movement. There you go. That's actually pretty interesting. What else we got here, Mac? Can Ryan start saying type shit after he makes point that would be great. Thanks. Well you guys have to school me. What is that maybe Mac can tell me this one? Like what does that mean? Oh, I got you. I got you. I'll yeah sure why not. I'm here to please. It's like someone that's crystal to say and do bit of a set of indeed we do. Uh, we're getting language police. What else back we got one more? What do you guys think is the breaking point for Americans as far as gas prices go?

1:41:39Just paid 739 per gallon per diesel this morning in Washington state from Matthew. Oh my gosh. And maybe Matthew can tell us but like oftentimes these, you know, diesel tanks are 20, 30 gallons. So you're looking at, if that's, you know, if that's a 20 gallon tank, you're filling up there. 150 dollars. Yeah. When it was 60 dollars. Yeah. A year ago. Yeah. And that's a hundred, a hundred bucks. Just gone for nothing more than you had a year ago. And Washington is an ag state. So yes, it's like a coastal blue state, but that's what people play the whole west coast. For refining refining reasons, you know, pays more for refining and other reasons pays more for diesel.

1:42:41Um, California's an ag state. Washington's an ag state get a lot of produce from those places and other farming products. So that's what is a breaking point. I don't know. August jobs number was great. Um, what did we say that we were, we looked at what was the all time high we talked about? Um, 585, 585. Yeah, for diesel. And so I mean, I don't know what the breaking point is. Even if the jobs are good, I think if you get over six dollars, maybe that's so. Yes. And also one, the bad mark in the jobs report was that wage growth had fallen. So you're seeing, so while there's more jobs. And this goes to this point, people are all falling behind. And what we certainly found during COVID, unless you're living off capital gains. And you're doing this. This was, I almost, this was kind of a sad observation for me.

1:43:45During COVID, because I lived through the great recession and so I have this visceral understanding of how unemployment tears apart your soul and tears apart families and tears about the whole fabric of our society. But it is an acute problem. But it's experienced by the people who are unemployed. It filters through the entire economy in less worker power and more anxiety and fear for everybody who does have a job because they're staring at the end of the abyss of unemployment. So it's not that it only hurts the unemployed, but it primarily hits the unemployed. Inflation and falling behind when it comes to wages hits, hits everybody across the board. And that it seemed like people were willing to trade some higher unemployment for more price stability during COVID. Like people were so, like it was such torture to just agonizingly be falling behind constantly.

1:44:50And so even the point is, even if this job report is accurate that we added 160,000 jobs, if everybody feels like their wages are falling because they are, then even if you're adding jobs, people are still furious and miserable. Yeah. Actually, yeah, I think part of what's so torturous and agonizing about those 10 periods is like when there's no light at the end of the tunnel, you don't know how long it's going to last. Right. Yeah, that's what makes it so miserable. And it's so demoralizing and you're throwing, and now with AI, running all of the job processes, you've got people making, you know, AI's are making the resumes and making the applications and submitting them. AI's are reviewing them. People are putting in hundreds of applications and getting no interviews, and then they do get an interview and it's with a robot on Zoom. It's just totally demoralizing and dehumanizing.

1:45:52Yeah. Absolutely. Well, very bleak and depressing note to end up bleak and depressing show on from our opening block to our conversation with Garrison. So we hope you all have a wonderful Labor Day weekend. We pumped you up. We added jobs. We added, there you go. We added jobs. So enjoy the barbecue while you can, I guess. Have fun. Yes. Yeah, actually don't get that Argentinian ground beef though. Yes, stay away from that. That's and it's unpatriotic. What's our equivalent of freedom fries for Argentinian beef? Except because of the labeling, you don't know what you're getting anyway. So fun. So fun. Thanks Ryan for another depressing send off. I'm about everyone. We'll see you back here on Monday and of course we'll be around throughout the weekend if there is any breaking news, but hope you all have a wonderful, restful Labor Day weekend. Didn't catch the latest Roland Martin unfiltered podcast. Here's what you missed.

1:46:53There should not be a single law enforcement agency. It does not have body cameras. It's real. Black farmers have been under attack. This is just the latest example of them just slapping DEI on anything. It's raw. And I'm sitting here going. They are playing y'all for foes. Catch Roland Martin's daily commentary on the Black Information Network. And download Roland Martin unfiltered on the iHotRadio app, Apple Podcast. Oh, wherever you get your podcasts. On August 4th, 1962, Marilyn Monroe died. Then the rumors started and she died again. And now we're going to set the record straight and learn about the way Marilyn Monroe actually died. The third way. I'm Jake Brennan. And on my podcast, Hollywood Land, I revisit some of the biggest stories from Hollywood history. Separating the myths people want to believe from the reality underneath them. Hollywood Land is part of the exactly right network. Listen to new episodes every Monday on the iHotRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:47:55I'm Brett Coleman and I'm Trevor Sikama. If you love football and want to understand what's really happening on the field, check out our show, NFL Pro. Every week, we break down the biggest plays, trends, and matchups using exclusive next-gen stats insights and NFL content you will not find anywhere else. Whether you're new to football, a fantasy football fanag, or a diehard fan. NFL Pro will help you analyze the game like a pro. Listen to NFL Pro on the iHotRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an iHot Podcast. Guaranteed Human.