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It's today explained this week's big news was supposed to be that Sean Rama's firm is back from parental leave
But then there is even bigger news
So I texted you on the weekend and I was like, yo, do you want me to do the bigger news?
And you were like my name's no king step aside
Let's go to the president to see why he's doing war with Iran every time you see someone with missing arms and legs
Or a face that's been absolutely shattered violently
It was almost certainly caused by in Iran
And
Roadside bomb. He is not trying to beat the forever war allegations somebody said today
They said oh, well president wants to do it really quickly after that. He'll get bored. I don't get bored
There's nothing boring about this the president says he doesn't have the yips about sending in ground troops
He also says we accidentally killed the people who were supposed to take over from the Ayatollah
Sean
You glad to be back. I don't miss my beautiful little daughter at all
Ha ha
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You're listening to today explained
We reached Greg Carlstrom longtime Middle East correspondent for the economist in Riyadh today Greg has seen a lot over the years
Has he seen this?
It is unprecedented
I think in the run up to this war
I mean everyone expected that there was going to be a conflict between the United States and Iran once
Donald Trump started this enormous military buildup and everyone
expected that
Iran was going to lash out
At Arab countries in the region because it had warned that it was going to do that
But the speed with which they have struck the the scale of the targets not just American military bases and Gulf states
But all sorts of civilian infrastructure
We've never seen anything like that in the Gulf
At least in since the the Gulf war back in 1991 and
It's taken a lot of people by shock in this region
Let's talk about what Iran is doing today
So the US is still bombing Iran is retaliating. What is Iran hitting?
So it's firing at Israel of course
It's been firing
Valleys of ballistic missiles there which have notably been smaller than the ones that we saw
During the 12-day war between Israel and Iran back in June
But the bulk of Iran's retaliation has been aimed across the Persian Gulf at the UAE
Qatar Bahrain Kuwait Saudi Arabia
Armand all six of those countries have been targeted
When the war began on Saturday morning
At least for the first few hours Iran was mostly firing at
American military targets in those countries
Plumes of smoke seen in an area of Bahrain
Near the headquarters of the US Navy's fifth fleet
And our base in Doha also hit where there was a significant US military presence
Kuwait Saudi Arabia or Oman
Where tankers were struck just off its shores in the street of Hormuz
A vital global shipping route where one-fifth of the world's oil passes through
The regional headquarters of the US Central Command
Is in Qatar the headquarters of the Navy's fifth fleet is in Bahrain
And those bases were targeted but Iran shifted very quickly
To aiming at civilian targets in these countries
In fact the airport was hit by a second attack in the early hours
Of this morning with black bellowing smoke rising up above the city
There was the luxury luxury hotel here
Hit the Burj al Arab
You can also see the damage that has been brought
To several of these residential homes that were around this small synagogue
Here in the city of that Shemesh on the outskirts of Jerusalem
All of these things have no conceivable military value as a target
These are civilian targets plain and simple
But Iran has been focusing its fire on those
And then on Monday signs that it's also beginning to aim at energy infrastructure
In the region
A refinery and oil refinery in Saudi Arabia
Was targeted with drone
Similarly a natural gas facility in Qatar both of which
Have temporarily gone offline in the aftermath of those attempted attacks
Big explosion here at the Rastanura
That's the Aramco Factory Saudi Arabia's biggest oil company there
And of course this is state back
And you see look at the splumes of smoke
The global ramifications that will be felt by people all over the world
When they're fueling their cars, when they're beginning to pay their bills
We can mark this is the moment where that begins
So it looks as if they're on now not just stopping at airports and hotels
But also beginning to go after the energy infrastructure that is critical for the economies in the Gulf
And for the economies of the world
Hey why is Iran going after civilian targets
Why not just keep hitting the US military
The logic of it for the Iranians is that
All of these countries in the Gulf they are close American allies
They have good relations with the Trump administration
And they really do not want to be involved in a war
They have thrived for decades on this reputation
For being Oasis of stability in a very turbulent region
Whatever else is happening in the rest of the Middle East
The Gulf has historically been pretty quiet
So missiles and drones zooming overhead
That's bad for business, that's bad for tourism
That's bad for the economic model of these countries
And so for Iran the hope was that
They would cave under the pressure of these attacks
And then Gulf states would use their relations with Donald Trump
To pressure him to try and wrap up the war
They would tell him essentially we can't endure this any longer
You need to end the war because this is becoming unsustainable for us
That is what Iran has been trying to accomplish
With these want and attacks on civilian targets
Do you think that's going to happen?
I mean the US says it's going to continue its campaign
Do you think Iran will continue retaliating?
I don't think it has many other options
It cannot fight the United States directly
If there are no American troops on the ground
In Iran, Iran cannot shoot down the American jets overhead
Or almost certainly cannot do that
Because its air defenses are so degraded
All it can do is attempt to fire missiles and drones at American ships
Or continue attacking the Gulf
It's really the only means they have to try and influence
How Donald Trump perceives this war to try and impose costs
That might push him to end it sooner
You mentioned earlier that the response from Iran
Is not as strong as it was during the war last June
The very short 12-day war last June
What is that telling you?
Right, that's the Israeli assessment
If you think back to what we saw in June
With these attacks on Israel
They were enormous barrages of dozens and dozens of ballistic missiles
Fired at a time and sometimes there were hundreds of these missiles in a day
But the first few days of this war we've seen much smaller valleys
Sometimes only two or three missiles at a time
And I think what that suggests is that
Iran either does not have the capability to fire larger valleys
Because so many of their missile launchers have been damaged or destroyed
Or that they are trying to ration the missiles that they have
Because they expect that this is going to be a prolonged conflict
And they have a finite number of the long-range missiles
With the capability to hit Israel
So they are rationing what they have there
Whereas in the Gulf it's a different calculus
They've actually fired more missiles and drones at this point at the Gulf
Than they have at Israel significantly more
And that's because of geography
It's because the Gulf is so much closer
They're not reliant on a small number of long-range missiles
They can use short-range missiles
They can use drones more effectively to target the Gulf
And so they have a much larger arsenal
That they can use and they are using it
I want to ask you about what President Trump says the objective is here
And the president has been about as coherent on this as he is ordinarily
But he posted this weekend that the bombing is going to continue
Until the, quote, objective of peace throughout the Middle East
And indeed the world, unquote, is met
How do you interpret this statement?
At this point, I'm not sure how to interpret any of his statements
No, we don't get bored, I never get bored
Because if you look at all of these interviews that he's given
I mean it's remarkable, he's in the middle of a war
But he has found a lot of time to call seemingly every journalist
Whose number is in his phone
To chat over the past few days
And he tells one outlet
This is going to continue until I bring freedom to the people of Iran
All I want is freedom for the people
He tells another one
Maybe this will be over in two or three days and I'll cut a deal
I can go long and take over the whole thing
Or end it in two or three days
And tell the Iranians
See you in a few years if you start rebuilding
There was this remarkable pair of interviews
Where in one of them he said I have three candidates in mind
To replace the supreme leader of Iran
I won't be revealing them now
Let's get the job done first
And then a few hours later he told another outlet
Actually those three guys were killed in the first round of strikes
So it turns out we can't rely on them
I asked him about who is going to take over now
That the Ayatollah, the supreme leader is gone
And his answer was interesting
He said the attack was so successful
It knocked out most of the candidates
He told me it's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of
Because they are all dead
I mean
What is he driving at here?
I don't know, it's not clear that he knows
I think really he wants to be able to say
Iran has been a problem that bedeviled American President since Jimmy Carter
I fixed it
But what that looks like, what I fixed it means
We really have no idea
Is there any suggestion that
In order to get what it wants
The US will have to put boots on the ground
Do you want to go round to Iran?
I haven't heard much talk about that
But at the same time it is very very difficult to change a regime from the air
There are very few examples in history of that working
And so if the goal here truly is regime change
To rip out the Islamic Republic root and branch
And replace it with something else
It's very difficult to see how that happens without ground troops
I think the preference for Trump and for the administration
Is probably something closer to a Venezuela scenario
Where you find a
Client regime insider who can take power now
And who is willing to
Deal with America be more amenable to American interests
It's not quite regime change
It's it's changing the figure at the top
But it's leaving the foundations of the regime intact
I think that's the preference
And if that's what they want to do
If they can find that person
It doesn't require troops on the ground
But we don't know
I mean the other question I think at this point is
Is how bad do things get in the Gulf?
How bad do things get with attacks on energy infrastructure here
You know there's going to be a point at which some of America's allies start to say
Either you need to end this
Or you need to do whatever it takes to protect us
And to make sure that Iran can no longer fire missiles and drones at us
And again that's something that's
Perhaps tricky to do just from the air
Greg Carlström is the Middle East correspondent for Leading magazine The Economist
Coming up next
What is the plan here
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This is today explained
And the hall to see senior foreign affairs correspondent and columnist for politico who is in charge in Iran right now
It's a very good question
Technically, they've said that they've appointed an interim council to lead the country for now
It consists of the president
a suede pizestrian
He's something of a moderate in the iranian system
Um, and then there's a member of the guardian council and the chief justice of the supreme court
They're considered hardliners of sorts for the most part
But to be honest, it's a little bit unclear in the sense that
Who is really running the military who's making the military decisions
There's a very senior guy named Ali lar jani who has a lot of power as well
Um, it's a little vague especially when the bombs keep raining down
How did this regime which right now seems as you say to be incomplete disarray how did it survive so many years
Well, everything through repression
diplomatic negotiation
Balancing its anti-americanism by appealing to other world powers such as china and russia
It has used any number of uh, of tricks. I mean, you know, it has had international relations with plenty of countries
If not america over the years, but increasingly it has become isolated as well
It was getting weaker and weaker and my sense is that the trump administration saw
A moment of an usual vulnerability and just went for it
It went for it with the idea
presumably that if you sort of take out the leaders of the regime then you get regime change is that
Is that what is likely to happen here? You know, it's interesting. I've been thinking a lot about this
The thing about a regime is it's not just about the people, right? It's not just who's there
It's also about the process of everything from elections to making decisions
It's also about power and how power is allocated within a system
The Iranian system was never built around a single cult figure that type of thing
To where you could just take one person out and everything else would change and you know, there'd be rainbows and unicorns or whatever
This is a systematic place and and it was designed it has been designed to regenerate itself
People step in when other people leave or die
What's different now is that the us in israel israel in particular because they're really the ones carrying out the
Assassinations they have just been going after as many figures as they can get
Even ones who aren't really in power apparently like people who might be related to someone in power
And there it seems like it just depends on how deep they can go to where the whole thing could fall apart
But then you still have the armed forces you still have the paramilitaries
There's there's a certain limit and there's certain limit to munitions for that matter
Yet you wonder if President Trump has thought through process as you put it
He said this weekend he hopes that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and the police
Will work together with
Iranian patriots so the protesters who've been protesting in the streets
He's essentially saying that the military and the police who massacred these protesters earlier this year should now work alongside them
It it it doesn't sound likely does it sound likely to you does is Trump hitting on something here look
Strange times make for strange but fellows yeah, right uh there
You know there's been reports over the years that there are people in the military and armed forces police forces who don't like the regime
Who would prefer to defect a lot of these guys are there collecting a paycheck at the same time a lot of these guys
Killed thousands of Iranian protesters just weeks ago, right?
I'm not saying it can't happen someone might emerge
But I I would have a lot of questions
What does the organized opposition in Iran look like is there someone inside of Iran who has the
Political leverage to take over right now. I think the short answer is no
There's no real organized opposition inside Iran and there are opposition figures
Many have been thrown in prison many have just had to flee the country
There are some who are under house arrest that sort of thing and some kind of came from the system and
tried to change it
And so they might not have legitimacy in the eyes of many Iranians who really really want
Complete regime change. Oh
I mean, there's just not not a real organized group. There are different groups outside Iran
Who claim to be opposition
leaders and
Organizations to a degree
But many of them have not been inside Iran for a long long time and they don't really have the confidence and they haven't really proven themselves as having a ground game
Inside the country. Tell me about Reza Polavi
It seems like maybe he the the exiled son of the last shavir on might fall into that category
Yes, you know, he's been outside the country for nearly 50 years and
Over the decades he has every now and then emerged and you know tried to kind of make some noise and say
The U.S. should do something we should support the people of Iran
This intervention is critical in the sense that it could be really a humanitarian intervention
To protect more lives in Iran that otherwise might be lost in recent years his profile really has risen
I mean you could just chart it
But it's partly because he and his aides have pursued kind of a political polarization approach
They've really cited with the Republicans. They've really been pro-Trump and they have gone out of their way especially online to
Intimidate to degree and push aside other
Who are in the opposition who say their opposition leaders that sort of thing
It's been a pretty
divisive approach at the same time because he has such name recognition inside the country and because
He has managed to raise his profile. It sort of has worked for him so that more and more people even inside Iran
Chat his name and they say his name
But does that mean that he has
Cells or units for groups in on the ground in the country who can take over institutions and
Take you know the armed forces over that I have not seen any evidence of that
He says he's in touch with many Iranian defectors
Including from the armed forces, but we really haven't seen proof of that and the U.S. officials. I speak to
Do not seem to think he's a serious player
Wow
What about the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps if they take over some analysts suggest
Possibility maybe keep an eye on them. What is that then? Is that like a military dictatorship?
So over the years we have heard reports that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
Has grown in power and stature inside the system now the IRGC is not the normal Iranian military
It reports directly to the supreme leader. It's very religiously biologically driven
But also
I'd say there's probably a fair amount of interest in the economic side of things for them because they have they own large parts of the Iranian economy
They are probably in the best position
To quote unquote take power even if they put a cleric in front and you know that's a symbol
The real power could lie with the IRGC and you know this this is a group that
Could on the one hand be very pragmatic if you say look, you know, let's make money. Let's have peace on the other hand
They could grow even more hard line in anti-American and anti-Israel
And push even harder with having a nuclear Iran down the line
So yeah, it's definitely probably
In many ways the odds on favorite in terms of really having the seizing the mantle of power in the country
You well know that the United States has attempted regime change in the Middle East before and the results were
catastrophic
How concerned are you that we are looking down the barrel of another catastrophe here
Look if you look at the conflagration in the Middle East right now as a result of these actions
It is deeply concerning. It's a question of how
How many countries will get drawn in at some point the Arab states might feel like they have to attack Iran because it's been attacking them
This could get very ugly. It could spill across borders. It could destabilize
A number of places
Most of all it could all destabilize Iran. I mean if you decimate the leadership
But then nothing really rises to take its place. You could have what's called regime collapse, right? That's another term
and
It just could become a chaotic failed state
So there's a lot of concern there. I do think though you kind of have to ask yourself about the really long arc of history
Yes, Afghanistan is a different story
It's back in the hands of the Taliban
But Iraq for instance continues now to hold elections. It's gone through some very very tough times
But it is a somewhat functioning democracy the people there are freer than they were under Saddam Hussein
I mean, we're talking you know, it's been more than 20 years now, but
Things do over time change and the question is is it worth it?
Also, is it worth American lives and American treasure
To make this sort of thing happen and I just think keeping that nuance in everyone's mind is really important
That was Politico's Nahal to see ariana as budu and avashai artsy produced today show july myers edited and Patrick Boyd and David Tadashore engineered
Andre Lopez Crisato checked the facts and I'm noelle king. It's today explained
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