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Canada financial advisor Jonathan Wellum of Rocklinc Investment Partners gives an update on the current stock market situation.He concerned that the odds of a "market retrenchment" look uncomfortably high now that oil prices are surging.#marketcorrection #oilprice #stockmarket _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
Obviously, we're watching the market give way each day and we're looking at the bigger
factors out there and it does appear to us that we could be in for a bit of a retrenchment
in the market.
It's just based upon fundamentals.
I mean, you've got increasing energy costs, that's going to cause increasing inflation.
You've got further decoupling going on in the global economy as a result of the war
and Iran.
I've got interest rates actually going up quite a bit and that's going to have to filter
through the economy and that's going to have a very strong negative effect on the overall
economy, given the indebtedness of the economy.
Welcome to Thalphal Money.
I'm Thalphal Money Founder in your host, Adam Taggart.
Today, we have the good fortune of being joined by Jonathan Wellam, who is the founder and
CEO of Rocklink Investment Partners.
It happens to be Thalphal Money's endorsed financial advisory firm up in Canada.
Jonathan, thanks so much for joining us today.
Great to be with you, Adam.
You've picked a great time for me to talk with you, given what's going on in the markets
here.
Yeah, it's not like there's a shortage of things to talk about.
I also want to thank you.
When this video, we're recording it the day before Thalphal Money's spring online conference,
but it's going to run the day after and you're going to be an important part of that conference.
So I'm thanking you in advance while we're recording, but retroactively after this launches
for your involvement there.
It is going to be, well, I know at this point in time, I feel comfortable saying it was
a phenomenal event and I just want to remind folks if you didn't watch it, but you wish
it had.
Don't worry, you can still purchase a replay of the conference folks.
Just go to Thalphal Money.com slash conference and you can purchase the replays there.
All right, Jonathan, like you said, a lot going on in the world.
And I kind of want to make that part of the thread we talk about here, which is, you
know, I think about that, that Richard Kipling, poem, if I should have pulled it up here.
I don't have it in front of me, but it's like, you know, if you can keep your head while
all those around you are losing yours, I think this is one of those times in the market
or feels like it's about to be one of those times where there's so much concern swirling
around here for very understandable reasons, whether it's what's going on in Iraq, whether
it's what's going on in private credit, whether it's people just watching, you know, their
portfolios start to shrink here.
If they've been, you know, natural resource holders, especially in the precious metals,
they're watching those get kind of clobbered right now.
I think only people who are doing well are those who own oil and gas stocks at the moment.
But, you know, how do you, how do you help people kind of just keep perspective and keep
from being their own worst enemies at this time?
Because we know that most investment decisions that are made out of emotion tend to be the
wrong decision at the wrong time.
Yeah, great question.
And that's really what, you know, as advisors, that's how we really earn our keep them
talking to our guys in the office today.
And I said, this is when we actually are really have to work hard and to keep the long-term
focus.
So we go back to why we are invested in the various areas that were invested, why we
own some of the businesses that we own, why, for example, are we in precious metals?
And has the really, as a thesis changed at all, just because there's some circumstances
that are causing a disruption in the markets right now.
And so we always go back to looking, again, out two, three, four years, where we want
to be and look at the underlying reasons for investing in the sectors and in the particular
businesses in the first place.
We have to stay focused.
I've been doing this for 36 years, almost 37 now, believe it or not.
And I've seen tremendous volatility, you know, back in 2008, I remember, I should say,
well, wait, those are financial crisis, but even if you go back to 1998, long-term capital
management, we had a lot of financials.
And they, you know, Merrill Lynch, I think, went from like 80 bucks to, you know, 25.
And I got, you got to look through the long-term, of course, the NASDAQ peaking out in 2000
and so forth.
So the issue is, when you're investing, why are you investing, what's the thesis, is
it still intact?
Can I take advantage of the volatility to dollar cost average and actually increase my
positions?
And for goodness' sakes, don't be buying high and selling low.
That's what, you know, that's what is really condemns a lot of retail investors who aren't
focused.
So that's what we do.
We just go back to our basic thesis, look at the valuations and just stay focused.
Okay.
You know, one of the things that I think a lot of retail investors are guilty of and folks
I've been guilty of this too many times myself is we tend to get an insight, right, whether
it's we've actually done our homework on a specific company or we are reading and we think
we identify a macro trend and think, okay, you know, this company is going to benefit
from that, right?
So we're pretty good at coming up with like a rationale for buying a security.
We're not great at the same time in our mind determining, okay, well, under what conditions
are we going to sell, right, our just general hope is, okay, I'm going to buy this thing.
Hopefully my thesis is right.
It's going to make me a lot of money and then at some point in the future, I'll have
more money, you know, maybe I'll sell it, but we don't really, there's not a framework
or a formula that we're putting together to say, okay, if it hits X within Y zero amount
of time or if this change happens macro, that's going to be my trigger.
We just kind of think we'll in the future, I'll figure out when to sell it, right?
And then we get into a point like this where it's just a lot of uncertainty there when
we look at our portfolio and we obviously didn't realize, yeah, I'm not really sure why
I own half the things I have in here.
I felt passionate the time I bought it, but like, I'm not sure how I feel about it now
and I don't know whether it's worth keeping in the portfolio or not.
So this kind of goes back to the old, you know, know what you own, maximum in investing.
And this is one of the reasons why I recommend people work with financial advisory firms
like yours is because you guys don't have the luxury of just buying and crossing your
fingers.
You know, every decision you make, you have to justify it to everybody else at the firm
and your clients while you're buying it.
And then you kind of have to justify it on a daily basis, why you continue to hold
it.
So you know why you're holding it or why it's time to get rid of it.
How do you help the average person there who is just looking across their portfolio and
seeing a whole bunch of names where they're just like, I don't know if I want to be holding
this going into further uncertainty, but I don't know if it's a bad time to sell or not.
Yeah, I mean, part of that is upfront, upfront education.
So making sure that when clients come in, they understand that there will be volatility
and we tell clients to look, if you're not prepared for a 30, 40% drawdown on some equities,
I mean, not that we want to go down that much, of course, but whenever you buy something,
you can get a drawdown like that if you don't have a stop loss in place and so on.
And so we try to prepare clients for some inherent volatility that will emerge.
You also, when creating a portfolio, make sure that you have some assets that aren't
already volatile, so that if they need money in the short run, they can take from that
part of the basket, if you will.
And so asset allocation is very important.
And with that, if you do have a sector like precious metals that has run quite a bit,
like very quickly, that's a sector you want to take some money off, so take a little bit
of money, take some profits, reallocated, that's a discipline that's very important also.
And then a sell discipline, as you basically are laying out there, if the thesis change
gets overvalued, better opportunity, you sell the security.
The security doesn't care if you own it or not.
It doesn't have, you know, there's no love relationship between you and a stock.
And so you've got to be able to part with it when it doesn't make sense.
And so again, all of those factors come into managing a portfolio, managing expectations
and managing the risk in the portfolio.
All right, I mentioned some big concerns that are swirling out there in the headlines
right now.
I'll get your opinion of them in just a second.
But there's one development that I'm curious how concerned you are about it, which is,
if you look at technical analysis, one of the factors that people look at a lot is daily
moving averages.
And they have started to cross over to the downside.
And pretty much as of the day we're recording here, Jonathan, we've punched down below the
200 daily moving average.
It's looking like we're probably likely going to close there.
You know, TBD was going to happen next, but a number of the folks I talk to, so they
see that as a critical support level.
And so the question is, is, you know, we'll find out we don't know for sure at this time,
but, you know, we could potentially be on the precipice of a fairly large coming down
leg in the markets because we've punctured that long-term support.
How concerned do you about the fact that we are now below it?
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Yeah, I mean, to be honest with you, we don't spend a lot of time on technical analysis.
We're bottoms up, value oriented investors.
I mean, clearly, we also look at some of the macroeconomic trends.
So that's not something that we're preoccupied with.
Having said that, obviously, we're watching the market give way each day, and we're looking
at the bigger factors out there.
And it does appear to us that we could be in for a bit of a retrenchment in the market.
It's just based upon fundamentals.
I mean, you've got increasing energy costs.
That's going to cause increasing inflation.
You've got further decoupling going on in the global economy as a result of the war
and I ran.
I've got interest rates actually going up quite a bit.
And that's going to have to filter through the economy, and that's going to have a very
strong negative effect on the overall economy, given the indebtedness of the economy.
You've got just so many geopolitical factors going on in uncertainties right now.
In terms of the straight of our muses, there's so much important economic commerce goes
through that.
Not just the 20 percent oil, but you've got fertilizers.
You've got the issues of natural gas now that have been interfered with the LNG facilities
in the Middle East.
So, I mean, there's just a number of things that I think are weighing on a global economy.
It's already really leveraged and didn't really have a lot of growth anyway outside of
the United States.
And there's not a lot of economic growth in Europe.
It's very little in my own country in Canada.
And so when you look around the world, if you put these kind of kind of headwinds in
the system, you know, the increasing interest rates, the increasing energy costs, which
you're going to filter through and increasing inflation and so on, I think, you know, to
see a global recession, it can all of a sudden becomes quite probable.
I mean, I'm not saying I'm not calling for that, but these things are going to be big
concerns.
You mentioned private equity, private credit.
Yeah, we're seeing all sorts of issues bubbling up to the surface there.
In my own country in Canada, we just did a quick report in the private real estate market
in Canada.
So about $80 billion has been raised over the last number of years.
So, you know, multiply that by 10 if it's in the US economy, where about one tenth sort
of the US.
So, $80 billion was raised and these are private real estate equity funds and 40% of them
are gated.
40% of that are gated.
And so, again, you're seeing this pressure coming and, you know, people don't talk about
it that much.
You're seeing some of that United States, some of the gating that's going on.
But the gating is there because, again, they don't have all the equity.
People want out.
They want out for a whole host of reasons.
Quite a few of the funds that have been gated have cut their distributions and a lot
of people bought these strictly for the distributions and, you know, maybe a little capital upside.
Yeah.
What comes next at them?
Probably write downs, right?
And so, yeah, so there's all of this swirling around.
I think that is concerning and I think is going to put a lot of downward pressure on economic
growth, not just, of course, in the United States, but around the world.
And so, I think that's why the market's really, really getting heavy.
It's tough going.
You know, we've had a lot of excess.
You've talked about this, the lag effect.
Maybe we're finding getting it in the market.
And so, I think people need to tighten their seatbelt and get ready for some volatility,
increase volatility, maybe some downside for a while.
Okay.
And what's interesting is there's a lot of angst around this right now, but the markets
are down what, you know, a little over 400 points from their all-time highs.
You know, I mean, it's not a lot and, you know, there's a lot of room, there's a lot further
to fall, right?
So, if people are freaking out now, I wonder if there is another down like we're talking
about, what the fear factor is going to be, you know, on Wall Street at that point in
time?
Yeah.
I mean, if you look at the, the TSX in Toronto, we're now just negative for the year and
probably off about four or five percent from the high.
And as you know, in the US market, the Nasdaq might be down five, six percent year to date
or so.
And, you know, the Dow, the Dow, it's a little bit less than that.
So, yeah, we're not very far off the highs and people are very concerned.
But I think that's just because of the overall environment in the world, the unsettledness
that's going on, there's just so much activity every time you turn around, there's things taking
place.
And I think it's just sort of throwing people a little bit, throwing people off.
And yeah, it's unsettling.
People are just not settled, I think, in terms of their stations, yeah.
Well, so at the conference, the keynote is provided by Lacey Hunt.
And he, as he usually does, he does a graduate level walk through a whole bunch of charts
about our current situation in this conference.
It was all about studying how oil shocks have impacted economies in the past.
And you know, in particular, when an oil shock happens, when the economy is already somewhat
compromised, and you know, the short answer, folks, is nothing good.
And so, Jonathan, we could have, we could have, and we were talking about a number of the
concerns that you and I have rattled off here so far before the war was enacted against Iran.
And not only does the war itself put an uncertainty premium on markets, but obviously,
what's been going on with the oil prices is the real big concern.
You know, it's sort of like, hey, we had an issue, or we had an environment that we were quite
worried about beforehand. And now we have this exogenous shock that is quite bad.
There's no real good way to spin it.
How much more vulnerable is that going to make the, the, the fragile system that we had before?
And of course, the big answer to that is sort of twofold.
It's, well, how long does this war last, right?
And then secondly, how much damage is done to the Gulf energy infrastructure?
And that's been, I think, the very concerning development this week is that both sides have started
hitting, you know, oil and gas installments that will take honestly months at best to get
working again in the number of cases they're saying years, right? And of course, that's,
that's what's been done so far, who knows how much it's going to be done going forward.
So there's this big uncertainty factor out there still of just how much more could this be,
right? Could, how much more damage could it be? How much longer could the, the war last in
these, these high oil prices system? So, you know, it, you try to sort of seal the different
permutations of what could happen and come up with a probability distribution. But it's,
it's hard to find many parts of the tail that, that don't have some sort of, you know,
quite negative lingering effect from what's going on right now with this war.
You know, absolutely. I mean, look, we've been facing, you know, the end of a debt cycle.
I mean, we were at a huge debt cycle. We've got an issue with currencies, our whole currency
system. You've got this major political struggle going on now in the Middle East and all
of the implications of that. You now got a, a jacking up of energy costs, who had a very vulnerable
time in the global economy. And as you point out, it doesn't appear that those energy costs
are going to come down that dramatically soon, simply because there's been some damage. And,
you know, the, you know, the world, the world can absorb some of this. But if you've got,
you know, the LNG facility and guitars been hit that they're talking maybe a couple of years
for parts of that to get back up. And, and so the energy assets in Iran are compromised,
other parts of the world. I mean, you, you take a couple million barrels of oil off the market,
and it can have a profound effect. But that runs through as, you know, every part of the economy,
every part of the economy now is going to be increasingly stressed. Also, it's the same time
where you're having this, you know, bipolar world being developed, right? So the same time
that we're kind of getting east and west, in my view, we see, you know, that sort of, you know,
building now, it's sort of China, the United States and the sort of the standoff there.
That means, again, all of these goods that are coming from the east to the west probably less,
that means increasing prices, probably things like that. So there's so many things going on that
I think can feed into inflation or a stagnation environment and that are upsetting for people.
And we just don't know how this is all going to pan out. I don't know how it's all going to pan out.
That's why we come back to our investment thesis. We stayed pretty focused on some of the
precious metals. We stayed focused on businesses that we think, you know, can absorb this pressure
and continue to do well and so on. And also we're trading attractive prices so that we're not overpaying.
But no, it's a world that's facing a lot of challenges and they're all coming to a head.
And then you throw this mess of increasing energy costs into the middle of it all.
And yeah, it's one that I think, you know, investors have a reason to be concerned and to be focused
on what they're investing in and be watching their capital.
So obviously this was a big topic of conversation that yesterday's conference,
and I'm saying yesterday, even though we're recording it the day before.
But I've seen all the presentations and, you know,
when you get a whole bunch of people together, you're going to have differences of opinions.
Right. That's what makes the market. But I will say Luke Roman
is very concerned about all this and made the comment that he is concerned about an outcome
that in his words could be worse than COVID plus 2008 combined, which is a pretty pig statement.
And I'm not trying to freak everybody out and I'm not saying you have to share that as well, Jonathan.
But I'm just mentioned to say, hey, some of these smart people are really concerned about
what these knock on effects could be. Let me ask you a question maybe to the positive upside here,
at least for part of the world. I asked Lance Roberts this in yesterday's weekly market recap,
but I'm curious to hear your thoughts too, especially because you're from Canada.
I think even if the war ends tomorrow, but especially if it lasts for a lot longer and gets worse,
is I think the risk premium to purchase oil and gas through the Persian Gulf
is going to be substantially higher in the future than it has been up until this war.
You know, it's just it's going to be more expensive to ensure ships.
Countries are going to be, you know, once bitten twice shy. I'm not really sure I want to do
this in case my tanker gets marooned inside the Gulf if they close the straight again or
God forbid gets hit by a missile or whatever, right? And if if Iran decides to the regime is still
intact and it starts to try to, you know, enact a toll of any ship going in and out of there,
which apparently it's maybe starting to do now. So we've all heard the staff at 20% of the
world's oil flows through the Persian Gulf, you know, as of right before the war.
I'm one man's opinion, but I'm going to guess that percentage of the world's oil
that the Gulf represents is going to go down or at least as a ship through the Gulf is going to go
down for two reasons. One, I think in apparently we're already starting to see this,
you've got countries saying, you know what? I think I want to start buying a larger percentage of my
oil from quote unquote safer, friendlier parts of the world, right? My pecanadian oil might be
a US oil way wherever. And so I think our countries could could potentially be net beneficiaries of
that and understand that some people watching this might not like that, you know, maybe it looks
like war profiteering or whatever. But I think that could be one of the the outcomes of here.
I also think and we've heard talk of this too recently. A lot of the countries that are on the
coastline there in the Gulf will be working even harder and a number of them have already
built an infrastructure to do this is to provide alternative ways to get the oil and gas out of
their country and getting it on to a ship without having to traverse the Gulf, right? So these
are pipelines that are going, you know, to other to the Red Sea or to other other potential
distribution points. So my point here is is I think no matter what happens, the Gulf's outputs
probably going to be a bit diminished is going to be more expensive and other parts of the world
will probably benefit. And of course other parts of the world too will it's a reflexive system,
you know, those say, hey, look, the world wants to buy a lot of oil, but not from the Gulf,
we'll increase our production here and we'll sell to them. So do you see this? Because I know
you're very resource oriented and you're, you know, the types of companies that you invest in.
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in the credit karma app. Yeah, the new question I think that I think we're going to see dramatic
changes take place. An event like this really sharpens people up. I mean, it's also coming at the
same time, Adam, as you know, where we're getting this sort of decalobilization, right? In other
words, a Trump has really been pushing this that we're, you know, too dependent on China,
too dependent on an enemy or someone that's not exactly your best friend, someone you can't trust,
and becoming much more independent in terms of all of your resources from a Western hemisphere
perspective. So I think it's going to play right into that very, very well. And you're already
seeing that. I mean, you had some of the government officials over in Japan cutting deals on energy
and so forth so they can bypass some of the some of the the Middle East and the Persian.
Yeah, just to that point, it wasn't just Japan, but we had, we just struck a deal for US did
for 56 billion for a number of Indo-Pacific countries, including Japan. So I think that if you
listen to the administration and trust them, they're saying basically the phones are ringing
off the hook right now. Yeah, and I'm up in Canada. I'm just celebrating at that from the point
you guys are doing because in Canada, we've got so many resources, but we have the, you know,
incompetence and lack of initiative on the part of our federal government, particularly, but also
some of our provincial governments to develop these resources. So I mean, we should be getting much more
LNG out of our country. We're doing some small deals, but a few years ago, the Europeans came to us,
the Japanese came to us, came to our prime minister, Trudeau at the time, and he said there was no
business case. You can believe it, no business case. And so I think that's going to change. It's
going to be so much pressure and hopefully the current leadership in Canada or new leadership
will recognize that ability because Canada, especially for the US, we should be developing
stronger relationship with each other because we have all of the resources. Anything you don't have,
we do have, and we're right next door, and it's much safer, of course, and it's all within the
hemisphere. So Uranium, Potash, of course, natural gas. The years of development we have in our
oil and gas sector is much larger than the United States. And so on lumber, aluminum, because our
energy costs, because of hydroelectricity and Quebec and some of our provinces is just so low. It's
a fraction of the cost that you're going to have in the US, but we can, you know, we can smelter
the aluminum, as I say, a fraction of the cost. These are things that we need to start thinking
about and developing, but of course, you need, you know, you need the intellectual horsepower
and people don't want to do that, right? But no, I think it's going to change. It's going to change
quite a bit in the world. Having said that, with all of these changes, as you know, Adam,
that changes the world and it causes increase in prices and dislocations for a period of time.
And I think that's what the markets worried about that we could again. It's fine to say we're going
to change our distribution model, but we're used to a pretty efficient one right now. That's being
interrupted. Now we're going to have to replace it with something else. That means increased cost,
increased infrastructure costs and just all of those changes that will have to take place. And I
think again, that's why the market is looking at this and going on or no. This could be inflationary
for a little while. And without a lot of economic growth, that could be stagflation. And we might not
get, we might not advance very far. And this could be a serious problem. And then with all the
debt, how do we pay for the debt? The interest rates go up as you know, every one percent increase
in the interest rates in the US is another 390 billion in interest costs. Who pays for that? So,
I mean, again, you go back to Luke Gromins comments. You know, I'm sympathetic to what a lot of
what he's saying simply because the numbers do not add up. You can't have a $39 trillion debt
unfunded liabilities, a budget bringing in a little over five trillion spending seven trillion.
You've got a war that's going to cost they say a couple hundred billion. But I think the last time
they said the Iraq war was going to be what someone said, you know, half a trillion half a billion,
yeah, half a trillion or so 500 billion turned out to be three to four trillion dollars. Where does
all that money come from, right? So again, when you all add all that up, you're sitting there thinking,
yeah, you're going to be concerned. You're going to be trying to protect your capital. This
no question. There's a lot of uncertainties. Okay. I want to ask you just a second about,
you know, the potential, well, given this outlook, what an investor should be thinking, but also
how they can position themselves for sort of the period after, where hopefully once most of the
change in volatility and pain in the system is as bloodthrew,
Sun's going to come out again and there may be some really good opportunities to own some great
companies at good valuations. Real quick, let me just ask because you have the Canadian perspective
and I'm not asking you to speak for all your countrymen or even speak for yourself individually,
but what is what is the tenor of what America is doing in Iran right now?
Is it hey, this is the right thing that needs to be done and it's unfortunate, but I hope they
succeed or is it one of these crazy cowboys just gotten a world into?
Yeah, I mean, my view, I'm, as you know, more sympathetic to what the US is doing. Again,
I don't know all the ins and outs and the information that the Trump administration has to pull
the trigger on Iran, but it's been a very bad, you know, global player and a real problem for
the Middle East and uncertainty. I think overall in Canada, it's a little more of a liberal,
it's a bit more and in your terms, democratic, if you will, versus Republican.
And I think I would, I think I'm pretty accurate in saying probably the majority of Canadians
would not be overly supportive of the US going into Iran, but there would be a good size
constituents that certainly would support it. So I think it would probably be somewhat of a split.
And, you know, we've got a large Iranian population in Canada that is overjoyed with it, of course.
And want to see a change in terms of the government there because of the, you know,
the revolutionary government there has just been absolute butchers. I mean, these are just awful,
awful wicked people. So, but I think overall to answer your question, it would be, it would be a mix,
it wouldn't be overwhelmingly in support, and there'd be certainly a lot of people that
wouldn't like it. I mean, some of that I think is fed by Trump Derangement Syndrome.
You know, he can poke, you know, him poking down.
And, you know, Trump, Trump Derangement, or the Canadians, I mean, there's no.
And there's a bit of that going on, unfortunately. You know, and there's nothing I can do about that.
I try to encourage the relationship. I think the United States is our most important trading partner
and most important country that we need to be friends with. And we should continue to work on
that, on that front. In fact, our leader of our opposition, Pierre Paulier, was just down in
the United States recently, just in the Joe Rogan show. And again, it's just trying to get that
more conservative message that sometimes doesn't get out of both Canadians, that, you know, we are
saying sensible people in many regards. And we do want to work with the United States. A lot of us do.
And we've got a lot of great resources. So let's get a deal and continue to work to both of our
advantages going forward. Yeah. Well, and it's interesting. So this will be a conversation for
a different time. But, you know, Canada, very research risk, which, and so is the US, and we're
entering this period of time where both self-sufficiency's got a higher prairie on it for countries.
But also, you know, there's a lot of countries that don't have a bunch of resources. Japan being a
great example when it comes to energy. And the US, Canada, powerhouse, if we are able to find
ways to continue to work even more closely together, you can make, you can make an argument that
there could be, you know, the dawn of a really new, exciting era for that partnership going forward.
But let's save that for a different day. So, to my question that I sort of half-assed earlier,
not saying this is going to happen, but assume for a moment that things do get worse from here.
You know, or maybe I shouldn't even start with that, but like, given the current situation,
what is your firm's general advice to the average investor? So what you're about to say isn't
personal financial advice, and we all know that what matters is your own personal situation. So,
you know, folks take this with that disclaimer. But is this a time to start, you know,
increasing cash reserves, if you haven't started already, is it time to be sort of positioning for
the potential of a material correction? But then also, if you've positioned well, then you have
the drive-how to deploy when there is better valuations around. Yeah, I mean, I mean, I'm reasonably
comfortable with some of the weightings that we have given what we're seeing right now. And that
means we do have up to 25% close to 25% that's in fixed income, very short-term, short duration,
you know, investment savings type, money market type funds. So, we do have liquidity. And that's
larger in people who are closer to the wire or are retired, things like that. So, we have higher,
higher, you know, fixed income portfolios allocations for them. For folks that are younger and
continuing to add to their portfolios, I think as we tell them, this could be a wonderful time.
I mean, we get volatility. You can dollar cost average and you can invest more in the marketplace.
So, we've tried to position our clients, you know, insanely rationally long before something like
this emerges. And sometimes, we'll get the feedback from clients, hey, I want to be more invested
in the market. I mean, can you increase my allocation in that? We say, wait a second, just be patient.
You know, because, you know, when things are going up, they all want to be 100% invested.
Whether I'm going down, they want to be zero invested in the equities, right? And so, again,
is trying to find that balance and just, you know, hold people's hands in a sense that, you know,
you give them, again, a good rationale for their asset allocation. So, we're pretty well positioned.
Now, if things get really messy, we certainly go through and look at different clients that maybe,
you know, we should have a little more cash and depending on their aptitude and their risk tolerances.
But most of our clients that, you know, don't want a lot of volatility, they're already positioned
really safely and carefully before anything like this happens. Because we know anything like this
can happen at any time out of it. It can always come, you know, some exogenous event can hit the
market. That's, this, of course, has been a little more telegraphed, if you will. But sometimes,
you can have a real shock hit the system all of a sudden. And, and so investors have to be prepared
beforehand. That's part of building a portfolio part of, you know, I guess, you know, coming to a
advisor and earning our keep, if you will. Okay. All right. And then, specifically, when it comes
to precious metals, they've had a lot of volatility right now. I want to ask you your thoughts on
their direction. But I guess before I do, from a volatility standpoint, do you have any general
advice for the, the precious metals investor? You know, is it a time to lighten up a
doubt that's going to be your answer? But, you know, is this the time to think about hedging?
What are your general thoughts?
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Yeah, I mean, a couple of things, of course, it depends how you're positioned.
If you were way overweight in the sector, and it's way too much volatility for you,
maybe you should trim back a little bit. I'm bullish long-term, but I'm only saying that,
so that you can have a scene, you know, in good night's sleep. So sometimes people just get
overweighted, and I think sometimes it's better if they just take some off, even if they're going to
sell at a price where they might have a small loss at this point. But I mean, if they were
investing in this sector, they probably still have 30 large gains if they were in a disciplined
weight investing going over the last couple of years. So a couple of things. So nothing wrong
with taking a little off. If you're overweight and you're really nervous and you're just
can't sleep, and people are some people, they just can't handle the volatility.
I think what we're trying to tell people, though, is that, look, if you have a reasonable weight
in it, we, you know, maybe it's 20% of your portfolio, and they're in great companies like
Franco and of that, or wheat precious metals, and some of the ones that we own, you know,
Agnico legal, and things like that. Just stay tight. Don't be jumping around. These companies
are trading at very attractive prices. If you look at the gold price right now, say, 45,
4,600, and you look at sort of $70 silver, you know, some of these companies like Agnico
are trading at, you know, an 8% free cash flow yield if that price holds up for this year.
And Franco and Nevada and wheat and precious metals are trading at, you know, 5% and 6% free cash flow
yields. So they're reasonably priced. And then what we try to get people to focus on is that
we have an intractable debt problem. I mean, we just, the global monetary system is under massive
pressure. And so you want to make sure that you're keeping a certain percentage of your portfolio
exposed to this area. And, you know, just know the companies that you're in, make sure they're
strong companies, make sure they're going to take advantage of volatility and the price also,
and that they're continuing to grow their portfolios. When we look at the companies that we own,
whether it's Agnico or Franco, Wheaton, and assist goal royalties, there's a number of them there.
They have in many cases, it varies growth rates. But over the next few years,
they're seeing 20, 30% growth in, you know, in gold equivalent units and so forth.
And so there's strong growth there along with, I think, opportunity for price increase. So
it's stay focused on the fundamentals, know what you own. If you bought something that's speculative
that, you know, is just gone up because everything went up, yeah, you're going to be nervous.
If there's no foundation to what you own, there's no balance sheet and there isn't resources
being developed, then of course, you should be nervous. But you probably shouldn't have bought that
in the first place. So you want to be very careful and maybe lighten up in some of the junk and
make sure you're in high quality. Okay, well said. And also, the fair amount of talk about
gold at the conference, no huge surprise. But several participants, especially Rick Ruhl,
were saying that even at today's precious metals prices, right, which are off the highs,
you know, silver, particularly so, even if they just stay here at the prices you mentioned,
right, $4,500 gold and $70 silver, that in general, the miners are in their opinion underpriced,
given the jump in profits that these companies are going to see. You know, a lot of these companies
are still being valued as if gold is like $3,200 versus $4,500. And in particular, Rick was
saying that they're royalty sector, which doesn't have exposure to operating costs, right? So,
you know, the rise in oil, it doesn't impact the guys that they're the royalty companies.
He said they look particularly underpriced right now. And he actually went through and shared a
whole bunch of names that are on his radar list. So, again, folks, if you want to find all that out,
go buy the replay for the conference. But Jonathan, you're nodding as I'm saying all this. So,
that sounds like you feel similar way. Yeah, no, absolutely, they're great businesses. And as you
say, their costs don't go up, they're just going to get a percentage of, you know, the royalty or
the, you know, they'll get a piece of the stream that comes off of them, as you know. And I think
the other thing that Rick probably pointed out, which I think is 100% on track, is that,
again, this AI digitization, all these long-term trends, they remain, I'm not saying that you
should go out and buy in a video. We don't own it. But I'm just saying that those trends and need
for power and energy and copper and so forth, those are going to continue to develop. And I think
that a lot of these resource companies are going to look to some of these large royalty companies,
like Franco and Wheaton and Royal Gold, to do more of their deals. We just saw this about a month
ago with Wheaton Precious Metals providing four billion in capital, four billion dollar royalty.
I mean, it's just a massive royalty. And so I think there's more of these coming down the pipe,
which will provide great opportunities for some of the larger royalty companies. It was thought for
quite some time that there are other deals. There's no deals to be done. But their cost of capital is
so low and it's such an efficient model that they can come along and they're really the best providers
of capital and many of these large projects, especially a lot of the copper projects. So I think
there's a lot of different opportunities for them to grow, even if the price of gold and silver
and copper disco sideways for a while. That's fine. Again, we get too caught up with people saying,
you know, silver is going to go to $500. It's going to go to $400, $500. You hear these different
things. Maybe it does. I'm not attacking anybody that says that. But if they can make lots of money
at 70 and you can do your models, if it goes to 500, hallelujah, you know, but you can still make
lots of money even at these current prices. And so when you look at, you know, you look at silver,
for example, again, the demand for that versus what's produced. There's a shortfall. It's been a
shortfall for five, six years. It's needed. It's a strategic resource. It's becoming even more
important in the future. So all of these things give me a good reason why I want to be in some great
companies that can profit from it over time. And yeah, there's going to be price changes. There's
going to be volatility. You have to stomach that if you're going to make a long-term return.
But by high quality, know what you buy and buy them at attractive prices. And I think you can do
exceptionally well over the next number of years because of, again, some of these long-term trends
that I'm going to continue to bet on because I think they're just really large secular
changes that are taking place in the world. If they don't take place, then that's a different
story. But I think it's hard. Some of these trends are hard to reverse. And I think they're
inexorable trends that are moving forward, especially, again, some of these, the need for power and
digitization, AI, robotics. All of these things are continuing to have a big influence on the
materials market. Okay. All right. We'll look in and start in the wrap up here, Jonathan.
Before we turn the camera on, we were talking about an issue that sort of near and dear to your
heart. And that will say, elements have been woven into conversations that have had on this
channel over the past, that take probably a couple of years. But I'm going to give you an
opportunity to talk about it because I think it's particularly important right now.
Well, I'll explain why in just a moment. But I don't want to put words in your mouth,
so you describe this any way you like. But it's important to you to kind of look at
wealth building and the pursuit of a good life. We'll say through a moral lens and not just a
financial one. So elaborate on that. Yeah. I mean, many years ago, yeah, I have a theology degree.
So I do have a master's in theology, actually. But I wrote a master's thesis on John Rawls theory
of justice, actually, back in the, it was a big shot at Harvard and wrote a book, a big
tomb on justice. But what in doing going through that study and also studying theology,
realized that it's really the virtues and values of the culture, which underpin everything else,
the political system, the economic system, the cultural system, and so forth, it's really those
values. And there was one book that I came across that was excellent. It's called The Economy in
Mind. And it's written by Warren T. Brooks. It's a number of essays from Warren T. Brooks,
who was an accomplished author and writer and newspapers through the 60s, 70s and 80s was quite
instrumental, I think, in the Reagan administration. But he had a couple quotes in that book, which I think
are really important for financial people to remember because we get caught up in numbers and
looking at resources. And sometimes you don't step back and say, well, really, what's the first
order of importance when it comes to developing economy? So he has one quote I'll just read you,
I think, which summarizes quite a bit of this. He says, the primary and essential character of wealth
is metaphysical, not physical. And as the result, the direct result of the creativity of mind,
not the availability of raw materials, the some product of individual efforts, not the manipulated
static resources of collective nations or governments or lands. And what he's really saying there,
especially if you read the book in more detail, is that this whole issue of virtues and values and
innovation and creativity, if you don't have that first and foremost, you're not going to develop
the resources of your land. And we see that in country after country, countries with lots of
natural resources doesn't mean they're rich. If they don't develop it and they don't have innovation
and creativity, one of the powerful forces in America, you know, 250 years going from a very
small, rather insignificant country to the world's dominant enterprise has been the free market
system and enterprise innovation, creativity and the investor revolution. Yeah, absolutely.
And he also has another comment we often talk about money and he says, a dollar is not value,
but representative of value and at last moral values. And he has a great section in the book,
again, that shows you any culture that has a real lack of moral values and moral cohesion,
lack of trust, lack of confidence in your institutions, all of these things rule of law
and so forth, you'll find a dollar that is devaluing. It won't stand up. A country with a strong
dollar, strong anchor in value over time will be one that is, again, infused with strong ethical
moral values. And I think this is really important for people to remember that if we want to restore
our currency value, we should look at the values of our civilization, our populations, say,
eight, wait a second, where are we getting our value? And we kind of wonder, where are we going
and really what holds us together as a nation, as a people? What are the ethical values that we
want to hold on to? Can we trust our neighbor? Can we can we actually enter into long-term
contracts with confidence and so forth? And so I think that that's something that, again,
we as investment advisors and professionals need to go back and challenge the system,
where are ethics, where are moral morals? Are we anchoring them in the right place?
And reestablish that secular or atheistic economy will not produce long-term wealth. And so
we need to be innovative, creative. We need to think about our neighbor. We need to show love
and compassion and entrepreneurship and think long-term. Even as we go through some of these
difficulties that we're experiencing now, we should always be thinking intergenerational.
What's going to be good for our kids and our grandkids? Not punishing our kids by spending
over spending and running up our bills, but helping we actually create a better economy,
a better world, a better culture for the next generation. And again, for the one after that. So
those are things often we don't think about as much, but those are the things that are ultimately
are going to strengthen our economy and produce the wealth that we want to produce. If we just
think of ourselves, then a selfish economy will ultimately go down and we'll find our currency
continuing to give up more and more value, which is what we're seeing with all of the printing
of money in the debate that have currency and not owning up to our own responsibilities now.
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dot com slash price match for details. So I think this is a really important topic and forgive me.
I'm trying to pull up a image here. So let me see if I can do it in real time while we're talking.
Yeah, there we go. So it's funny. I didn't know you had a theology degree which explains why you're
such a deep thinker and care so much about so many topics. You know, it's sort of in my study
of the world and all different types of thought paradigms and religions, etc. I do think there's
this sort of common thread coming up and you mentioned the word values several times.
You know, in my opinion, it doesn't really matter, you know,
which which big deed in the sky, you know, you believe is up there. It really comes down to the
values that your belief system holds and there was a great quote from Gandhi that I've repeated
often on this channel, but I'll do it one more time. That's when I'm pulling up here. It says
your beliefs become your thoughts, your thoughts become your words, your words become your actions,
your actions become your habits, your habits become your values, your values become your destiny
and that last line of your values become your destiny. I think this is exactly what you're saying
Jonathan and it's funny because you know, we can see this play out in all
errors of history, but we can't even see it playing out in front of us right now. I just in yesterday's
weekly market recap video with Lance Roberts. I brought this up. You're seeing a tremendous
amount of flight from New York State and New York City to other states right now, particularly
Florida and Texas. And I put up some comparative data on the screen that just sort of compares New
York versus Florida. And you know, on a lot of metrics, Florida just seems way more compelling.
A lot of these are financial metrics. So, you know, it's got New York as some of the highest
state income taxes in the country. Florida's got a zero percent cost of living indexes,
substantially lower in Florida. Education cost is much lower, but performance is much higher.
This is a whole bunch of things like that, right? And it's kind of like Gresham Law where bad money
drives out good, right? You know, if you have bad policies, eventually people will move to a
place where the policies they think treat them better, right? And of course, the decisions we make,
the policies we create, those are all determined by our values, right? And what I find really
interesting about what's going on right now between those states and America is, I mean, you can
look at it and say it's sort of a battle of the ideas between more free market capitalism versus
more socialism in generous social programs, which New York is pushing more for. But you can
also look at it as a really good current manifestation of federalism, which as the founding fathers
intended here in America where they said, look, you know, we're going to try to have a
federal government that does the least. Now, of course, that has changed over time, but their
vision was a federal government that kind of only did a few things. And then we'll let the states
figure out really how to had a self-govern as much as possible. And we'll just have a whole bunch
of running experiments. And, you know, at any given time, people can uproot themselves and go
to a different state. If that state they feel is treating them better. So again, I look at all this
and just think it is the direct outcome of what you're talking about, right? If you have a set of
values, one set of values, it's going to lead to make a certain set of decisions. And, you know,
over time, if somebody else has a different set of values that are leading to different decisions
that the general populist says, I think that serves me better. You know, we're seeing that it works.
We're like literally seeing right now, you know, pretty persistent outflows from one area and
inflows into others for this reason of differences of values and differences of belief. So,
of course, the other reason why I really like how you brought this up was I've talked about the
importance of like knowing your why. Like at the end of the day, why are you doing all this,
right? Why are you pursuing wealth? And why so many of the folks who watch this channel,
you spend a lot of your time either creating the wealth, right? You know,
slaving away your job or, you know, working to grow it through investing or things like that.
It's something you think a lot about. You probably, you know, spend it in an order in the amount of
your your brain power thinking about, how do I grow it or how do I not lose it? Why is it worth
all that trouble, right? And it's not worth all that trouble just to have a whole bunch of dollars
at the end of the day, right? It's because you want to be leaving a legacy of some sort in this
world, right? You want to be providing for your immediate family. You want to be enriching the
life and the way that matters to you, spending time the way you want with the people that you want
to spend it with, right? Those are all the things that are really important about, you know,
to really keep in the forefront of your mind, especially when the world gets kind of walk wonky
like this, because there is no guarantee that you're going to come out through it. Okay. Now,
this whole program is for us to talk about insights and strategies that will hopefully improve your
odds of making it through it, you know, as best you can financially. But as I like to remind people,
look, there's no guarantees. The money can come, the money can go in life. You want to make sure
that no matter what it does, you are still as rich as possible so that you've got this, you know,
the richest relationships in your life. You've got the most meaning in your life when you wake up in
the morning. You've got good health no matter what the S&P does tomorrow, right? So it's keeping that
why like really firmly in your crosshairs. You're nodding a lot as I'm saying this, so I'll hand
a torch back to you, but that's a big thing when you were sort of talking about sort of the
the morality and the values that was coming to the forefront of my mind. Yeah, I mean,
what I would point out that you do want to make sure that you're rooting yourself and what is true.
And of course, the big question is what is truth and that's we have a big argument or big
discussion in terms of that. It's that vertical relationship that I think is important to have
clear. And then once you have that vertical relationship, right, then you can really have much
healthier, stronger, horizontal relationships. That then you know why you're here,
what your purpose is. You've rooted yourself ultimately in the eternity. And that's critical.
Then it gives you a basis to interact on this world with each other and how we are to go about that.
And so I think that, you know, the founders of the United States, they knew that. They actually
made it very clear that unless you had a virtuous and values oriented people, they wouldn't be
worthy of the Republic over time, right? You cannot run maximum freedom in a society without
virtues and values and moral absolutes. And so these are things that I think are really important
that freedom is freedom is not absolute. Freedom has to ultimately have a form. The issue is what
form does it take? And so if you get into like you think of Florida and California and New York,
I would argue that the economic policies being pursued by New York are a rejection of the
created order. They stop on the individuality of the importance of people, the value of people,
and they take away initiative and creativity versus the policies of Florida are trying to reward
people with maximum freedom to be able to operate as human beings. And then you'll see that one
doesn't work and one does work. And that's the beauty of the system. I think it does correct
itself. And so that's where if you spend money and you print money and you think that's going to
produce wealth, it doesn't work. Why doesn't it work? Because you have to work and you have to produce
things if you're going to have any money to be able to transact and things. So that's what I like
about ultimately the world of economics is you can only try to get around reality for so long
and then it catches up with you. Because ultimately there are real real real values and there are
moral absolutes that you have to abide by. And if you don't, pay day will come. And I think that's
what we're seeing a lot in the Western world where we sort of jettison long-term discipline,
frugality, investing for the long-haul family formation, children and other generation investing,
kids grandkids and so forth. But that comes at a massive cost to our society and to our culture.
I think that's what we're facing now. And we're seeing that now embedded in our politics and in our
economics. And so we need to, again, think about these things as you say, think about why we're here,
what the purpose is and make sure you've got a good reason. Otherwise, when things get tough,
you can't take it. Otherwise, you're going to be strong and robust. You have to have a strong
worldview that you can anchor yourself in. Yeah, very important. That word anchor I think is
really important. So great conversation here, Jonathan. My parting bits of advice to the audience here
is, you know, whatever your persuasion, whatever your particular, you know, faith,
lack of faith is, I hope there's something in this conversation that's resonating with you and
recommend that you maybe spend some time, you know, this weekend just reflecting on values.
You know, what are the values that you personally hold highest? And, you know, ask yourself,
okay, am I living in accordance with them? And if I'm not, and none of us is perfect, you know,
where or amount of alignment, what can I do to begin to bring my actions better into alignment
with those values? And then similarly ask yourself those of you with families, you know, what values
do I want my family to embrace as well? And my guess is there'd be your personal ones, but there
might be some additional ones given the family structure. And then make sure that everybody in your
family, you know, is on board with us. And a lot of times we just sort of assume and all the
stuff's unspoken, but sometimes it's actually good just to put on the table and say, hey, as a family,
I think this is what our key values are. Do we all agree if we differ while let's talk it through?
But hopefully, you know, try to get your family a little bit more mindful about following your
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They're calling this a battle for the fans. What do you say to that, Rumi?
It's not a battle. So glad the soldier boys could take breakfast and give our meal the rest of the day.
It is an honor to share. Now, it's our honor. It is our larger honor. No, really, stop.
You can really feel the respect in this battle. Pick a meal to pick a side.
Participate in the dollars while supplies last.
The most important unit in society, Adam, and you'll find that nations that have strong families
have small government. Nations with weak families have a large government.
The family unit is the strongest bulwark against totalitarianism.
And so it is a major investment and incredibly important to invest in our families or children
in the next generation. And there's nothing really more important in terms of driving an economy
as a society and a civil population that was had to get along with one another.
The families, the university of life, that's where you learn all of your basic principles,
morality, and ethics in the home. And so, yeah, your encouragement for people to invest in the
family and think about that is a hundred percent accurate. All right, thanks. And look,
if you're a younger person watching, obviously you're part of a family.
Have these conversations with your family. But I also would say, look the people around you
who are older, who you think are really doing it well, and ask them, what are your values?
And find out what they have in common, and that's something that wasn't already on your list,
you know, consider adding it there. All right, I didn't expect this to get so metaphysical,
but it was really fun to do that today. And I think it was very worthwhile, especially in such a
chaotic time. Thanks so much, Jonathan. So just for folks, first off, please thank Jonathan
for giving us such a great conversation today by hitting the like button, and clicking on the
subscribe button, as well as that little bell icon right next to it. As a reminder, Jonathan
is Thalphomani's, he's the head of Thalphomani's endorsed financial advisor up in Canada,
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to schedule a consultation with them, you can do so, and I'll tell you in just a second. But also,
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right away, and you can have one of the free consultations that they offer as a reminder,
these consultations are totally free. There's no commitments involved. It's just to serve us,
these firms offered to be as helpful to as many people as possible. And if you are a Canadian,
don't forget when you're filling out the form where it says Country of Residence, click Canada.
And if you do, you'll be connected to Jonathan and his team there. Lastly, too, if you again,
if you missed the conference that we just had yesterday, but would like to watch the replay of it,
just go purchase the replay over at Thalphomani.com slash conference. Thanks so much, Jonathan.
Great to catch up with you. I'll let you have a last word here.
No, thank you very much Adam. It's always wonderful to speak with you. Thank you for the work
that you do and the wonderful speakers they have on us. As I told you before, I listened to
probably 60, 70% of the sessions and find them incredibly valuable and integrate many of the ideas
into our own business and practice. So keep it going. These the specialists they have are fantastic
and it really helps. All right. Thank you. And for the folks who are saying, you only
listens to 60 to 70%. It is an 11 hour event, folks. So that's six to seven hours. He's giving
up on his Saturday. So he's still making a big contribution there. All right. Jonathan, thanks so
much. Yeah, I'm talking about your ongoing programs all the time. I'm listening to your day after
day after day. Oh my goodness. And enjoy them. And you have tremendous speakers. And so I really
appreciate all this and all of the speakers eventually on the replays that you're going to have
on the conference. Well, well, thank you so much. And look, I know what a busy life you lead.
And the fact that you listen to that many on a regular ongoing basis is a huge honor. So
thanks so much, Jonathan. All right. Great conversation. And Jonathan, I'll see you again soon.
And everybody else. Thanks so much for watching.

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart