A Numbers Game | September 3, 2026 | Hour 2

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1:04That's buylorien. L-A-R-I-N-E dot com slash college for up to 50% off. This episode is brought to you by SoFi, the everything app for smarter money, banking, investing, borrowing and more. Check your first move with SoFi, Ticking and Savings. Earn up to 3.80% savings APY for up to 6 months? No account fees? Plus a cash bonus up to $400 when you sign up with eligible direct deposit. Terms apply. SoFi.com slash smart money. SoFi. Get your money right. SoFi, Ticking and Savings is offered through SoFi bank NA member FDIC. The numbers told the story now is down. Swarmdoll's idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gill I like Xander. Convison. Our number two with numbers game at Vs and Vs sports betting network, Vs and dot com game plus I hard radio YouTube TV. Of course, series X of channel 158. No, it's not it. It's 189. See? I did it again. 189.

2:05Hope you've made the switch. It's a serious if that's how you take it. Well, if you took his into series, you've already made the switch. Yeah, you have. But if you're listening through other means, the other ones that I just mentioned, just know that if you think about going to series X, it's 189. Yeah, we got that out of the way. Still to come. Crack unscripted. Bill Crack a burger and then Mike Reardon from right angle sports with a live college football release. Cleve TA standing by. I just want to read a few tweets here before Patrick Kelly says forget great. I just want to be decent. Congratulations. Justin talking about Justin Emory. Yeah. We highlighted earlier on the show. He says, when does tankable lose a comeback? Who's curious? I guess that's a go. I think our clippers things specifically. Skits O 360. Well, I always forget the wins, but remember the losses, not me. I've tailed many a winning bet from Gill very much appreciated. P.S. I can't see your tennis plays on V-Syn. I am a pro subscriber. You know, I put those in later than normal last night. So I wonder if that's is, but anyway, on the show here earlier, bonzy on the men's side, Putin's have a on the lady side.

3:06And the great Andrew Maxwell's all over. He's getting them up there now. Thank you, Andrew. You're not there. Drew Maxwell. Who I think the nickname I'm workshoping is cornbread. As a tribute to old Sedrick Maxwell. No? Yeah, no, I like it. Okay. What was it going on there? Nothing. Okay. Kenny Kelly's, Kelly's reacting to other things. And then I'm asking Kelly on air about his reactions. I shouldn't do that. Kenny Dillingham sexual. That is a real name. Value on Sanchez. Haven't been following this market since Wheeler blanked the bed on me. LOL. I, there is, listen. There's not value on Sanchez. There really isn't. Mrs. Who's the only one bad outing? He's first and majorly baseball and everything. What are we doing if he doesn't win the side? Come on. Ladies and gentlemen, last time this man was on the phone. And we love him. He's one of our favorite guests. But last time it was on there, we talked about his free. I want to say it again, free 2026 NFL preview guide. And then Kelly Bidley over here tried to make everything else he did free. You remember that?

4:06It's right. Yes, it is. It's cleaved TA Everybody. Currency the Progressive Guest Line. Cleve was happening. What's up guys? is my marketing agent and I'm from it out of the fire. It can cost me too much money if I think. But no, I appreciate you guys having me on. It's looking forward to looking forward to the season. So trying to get all my accounts ready and all my fantasy drafts done and all my survivor stuff ready. So it's a great time of year. Okay. So let's go through that a second. How many fantasy leagues are you in? How many million slash survivor entries are you going to do? Break it down for us. Yeah. So I tried to reduce my fantasy leagues. I mean, I think four now is my limit. And really it's just as not doing money or anything else. It's pure camaraderie and it's the, you know, one time a year I get to get together with some old friends and that's the only reason to have that, you know, the, those drafts to have that connection. So that's why I do that. I've got my got I've got some local survivor pools and I've got five, five

5:09survivor circus survivors. I've got some, you know, some of the splash entries I haven't submitted yet that I'm going to do the big one. I've got two circa millions, one that I split with a group of guys that have for a number of years and then one that are my own. So and then there's all sorts of other contests and pools that I'm not even thinking about right now. So there's a lot to, a lot to remember. Okay. With survivor, you at cleavanteletics.com, you have a survivor optimizer and you are, it feels to me like you've done three different waves of additions to this this summer. Can you sort of describe all the different things you can do on the cleavanteletics.com survivor optimizer? Yeah. And I keep adding stuff on just because things keep popping up and I have suggestions and I try to add as much as I can for people. But yeah, so you can go and the first thing you do is you select the pool type. So you can obviously are our circus survivor. You've got the different, you know, splash sports ones and then you just have a standard, you know, your local 18 week pool. And if you've got double weeks, you can select, you know,

6:13which weeks are double weeks. So you kind of, you know, and the number of entries, right? Number of contestants. So you kind of format it to whatever pool that you're, you're looking to join and then, you know, you go through, you know, you could just run the optimizer as is, but, you know, give you a full season path as to, you know, best of options. But there are a bunch of different features like if you want to lock in specific teams to specific weeks, you can do that for any week. So like if you think that, I think with the rams on Thanksgiving, maybe or, you know, whatever, you know, holiday weeks, for example, you just want to lock in. You know, for sure, you want to take that team or like Seattle plays Arizona, I think week nine, you know, that might be the largest spread of the season. Like you can go ahead and lock that those teams in and then run the optimizer that way. You can, you know, you can look at maybe week 18, we know week 18 is obviously a coin flip, whether it matters to teams, whether it be a taking team or a

7:15team that, you know, is really good. They're just going to sit all their starters. And so you don't want to burn, you don't want to save a team that you can use early in the year for something in week 18 that may not matter. So you can click on a button that says, keep a week 18 open and run the optimizer excluding week 18, which I think is a neat feature and can really change some of these paths that you see out there. And then the last thing that I really like and a lot of people are interested in and it's the big secret sauce with any of these huge survivor pools like circa is the, you know, projecting the public pick ownership for each of these teams. And so my algorithm, you know, projects the, the weekly, you know, public pick percentage. But if you want to go in and play around and give your own, you know, your own projections, you can do that and see how that affects the different options that pop up. So those are the things that I think are pretty interesting. You know, you can click on different teams in the matrix below that shows you like the entire season and the win probability by week. And then where they rank within each week. So there's

8:18a bunch of different things we hear. I have on on the site for you. That is super cool. So just to do it through the prism of circa survivor or circa grondissimo, you could, the thing is the Thanksgiving. I mean, the games of the Thanksgiving quirk, they're so competitive. I don't know who you would lock in. But let's say you had a conviction, right? Let's just say you said, um, ram's over the Packers. I don't know. Right. So you lock in the rams there. You lock in your Christmas as well. Then let's say with the Chargers gauntlet schedule coming, you put the Chargers in. Let's say week one. And then you could layer all that other stuff on top. Basically, cleave. So in other words, then you could do, then you could put all of it in the same sort of search. They're the part about the percentage of, you know, most likely for the other, they're the rest of the pool to be picking in those other weeks. Yeah, you can. Yeah, you can, you can lock in like multiple, multiple teams, multiple weeks. And then, you know, see how that affects the entire path, right? And you can say, all right, maybe, you know, maybe I don't like that team anymore on Thanksgiving. Let me try this team instead and just kind of, you do a lot of trial and error.

9:22And I think that's what this is about is seeing how one's, well, one change can, can affect the entire path. So, you know, it gives you that option again. I have a matrix below too, for the entire season. So you can see like, all right, if I don't want this team on Thanksgiving, what are the other options? You could sort of by, you know, current win probability too. So it gives you like an idea, like, all right, now I want to go back and use this team instead. So again, it's, it's, it's a lot of work, but it's fun and it's, it's a puzzle that is impossible to solve very easily, but we do our best. And that's really the idea here is, and you can save your entries too, by the way, so you don't have to keep coming in every time you can save up to 25, I have a 25 entries. You can save as well. So you don't have to always every week, you know, go and redo everything, because you're going to select which teams you've already used as you go along, but they'll be saved so you don't have to keep reselecting. So, and I'll add features, if you have any more suggestions, like feel free to message me. I got buddies who are like, who love this stuff and like, hey, why don't you try this? And I'll keep adding as much as I can, but I think it's something

10:26that if you're in a small pool, like a local pool, I think you've got a gigantic advantage with this. If you're in CERCA or like one of the larger pools, or at least you're like, you're in the game, right? Like you're trying to be in a level playing field with some of the more sophisticated groups and syndicates that are using like real programs to map the stuff out. So at least it gives you a shot. And just to be clear, the survivor optimizer was something that Kelly was trying to give away for free last time, but it is not free. How much is it for the survivor optimizer? So it's 99 bucks, you know, you just go on the website and subscribe. So I think for what you can get out of it, you know, it's pretty good value. And I also will, it's not just the the optimizer I do write up and I'll start starting in a few days kind of the different options and just the different considerations. Because I do think it's more than just pure numbers. Like the math will, there are math guys that only follow the wind probability and the value. I also do think there are, you know, some nuances where you should understand maybe the, you know, potential injuries like different things that can affect, you know, one team versus another different

11:32different considerations. So, you know, I'll have that qualitative aspect as well. So last thing on survivor, because I want to get to a week one thoughts and maybe some season long awards here, obviously, a larger season long. Then what would the week one survivor, survivor optimizer pick B based on the least amount of specifics that you would put in. Yeah, it's good to take the chargers of the top pick. I think now we've got about mid 30% projection for the pool, which gives you, you know, pretty good value on the chargers. I know a lot of people are saying, hey, try to be a contrarian, try to, you know, a lot of people are going to be on them. But if you're in the mid 30s percentage, it's actually not that bad for a team that is substantially substantially higher from a wind probability than a team like Jacksonville or, you know, or the lions who you're going to want to save because there's so many options in the future. And I'm not a big Jags guy. You know, we could talk about that. But, you know, to me, the chargers might end up being a pretty valuable pick in week one because of that. But there are other options and it gives

12:36you a backup option one, backup option two, for example, you know, if you want to go ahead and see how that works out as well. So, you know, you could pick at least three different options in week one, you know, other than chargers and see what happens to the rest of your path. Do you really think only 30% percentish will be on the charges? I would have had a way higher than like 45 to 50% up, not 50, but 45% I would have had 30% is lower. So this is more art than science, right? This is more art than science. It's really hard to know. But, you know, I think if you look at any other public and again, there are other really good sites that give you, you know, good projections. I think they're all in the mid 30s. So I think kind of mid 30th to 37% is a fair number. You know, a lot of people will talk themselves out of it because again, it's just so much discussion about holding teams back. I think that you get a little bit more contrarianism than you should be. Hey, long time. But you never know. Hey, long cleave. We'll finish that thought of it aside, then it's season long thoughts next.

13:38Every game day you show up for your team. Now it's your time. We go. We go. We go. We go. We go. Ask your prescriber about we go. We some magnified injection 2.4 milligrams, a GLP one. Call 18334 we go. We or visit we go. We calm to view the medication guide and to learn more about we go. We go. We go. We go. We go. We go. We go. We go. We go. The best menu hack for cheese lovers. One you don't even have to make. Introducing Applebee's new OEM Cheezah Dia burger. Your favorite UC beef burger meets an irresistibly cheesy case of Dia served with tortilla chips on a sizzling skillet of even more cheese. And for a limited time only, it's on Applebee's 2 for 25 menu. We dare you to resist the pull of this triple threat of cheeziness, a full-sized appetizer and two entrees, including the OEM Cheezah Dia burger for just 25 bucks. That's even good in the neighborhood.

14:41A numbers game on FESET, these sports betting network. Most people think sports betting is about picking winners. Ungambled is built on a different idea matched betting in arbitrage. It's a tool that teaches you how to use sportsbook bonuses and promotional offers to capture value whether or not your side covers and ungambled backs it up. You don't turn a profit on your bankroll in eight weeks. They refund your membership to learn more start with the free guide at ungambled.com slash visa and that's ungambled.com slash visa and use promo code visa for 10% off. Bet sharp. Look, square Gill Alexander Kelly Bidlet line from Circus, you know, downtown Las Vegas, cleave TA kind enough to join us for a second segment. By the way, cleave CLEV TA on the old Twitter machine cleave analytics.com is the website that houses the survivor, optimizer also gives you the free, the free downloadable, if you will, is that a word downloadable? I believe it sure. Yeah, they freed downloadable. You have the able to download an FL preview guide as well on the site. Cleave, let's get to,

15:45let's get to week one because you're not a one trick pony. It's not just about survivor. You're all obviously betting these week to week as we all do. You're, you know, you're in contests. You're also, you also kind of come to Megapod and talk picks with us week one. What, uh, what excites you? What have you bet so far? Yes, it's actually a relatively late week, so or late week one versus history. I'll probably get some more down in the next few days, but, um, yeah, the only thing I have really are totals. I've got one is gone. I took the Philly Washington under 47 and a half, like three, four weeks ago. And I did, I heard Drew was on a couple days ago. I know he likes that one. Actually, you know, Fesick, by the way, you got to give him a hard time. He took, he gave out 46 and a half last Friday in your show, like way too late. Well passed the key number 47. He would, if that was anybody else, you know, if you would give them a hard time, he murdered them. He'd kill them. Yeah, he's give, give Fesick a hard time. Sure. I'll do that. I like that. Okay. So, but

16:49that, so that's long gone. So I'm not gonna, I wouldn't give that out anymore. I do like a number that's still out there Detroit, New Orleans under. I got it 50 and a half two days ago. It's, it's trending down a little bit. You can still find, I think, Circa, it's 50. Anything, I, to me, I got, I have this at 48. So I think 49 and a half 50 is fine. Like to me, I'm not buying the Saints as like this juggernaut offense out of nowhere. You know, you're talking to someone who was touting Tyler Schuck rookie of the year halfway through last year at like 200 to one. So I watched like all of his snaps in the States at the end of the year and he was fine. But look, they faced the single easiest schedule in the NFL to end that year. I mean, the only team that he faced as a starter that was a winning team was Rams. And that was his first start. They lost like 34, seven, face five, bottom 10, EPA past defenses. Like he padded his stats a lot against some bad teams. And so I, you know, I'm not really buying this as like the, the, the resurgence Saints offense. I think a couple more is a good coach. I think one of the things I've seen out there is, you know,

17:51pace the plays can be really fast. Well, they were number one in the NFL last year in pace. Like, so that's already baked in. It's got pretty much the same set of receivers as he had last year at the end of the year without Jordan Tyson. Like if Tyson was in there and might be a different story because I think he could be explosive. But I'm just not buying the Saints team as one that I want to back in the 50s. And then, you know, you look at the, the Lions. Jared Goff is actually really struggled historically in week one after not taking any preseason snaps. He's done it three times as a lion. And they've gone over their team total all three times that the tap and actually under his passing prop in all three games. And you look at his EPA in those first weeks when he did he did not take any preseason snaps. You're talking about like games in the 12 15 17th ranking of the season. So it's, you know, three, you know, some of his worst games of the entire season have come in week one. And I think they're going to be more of a run offense run heavy offense under Duke, Pensac who came from the Browns came from the Cardinals. He likes multiple tight end sets.

18:55I think they're going to try to establish the run a little bit more this year and not, you know, expose Goff to a mediocre offensive line. So I do think it's going to be a little bit more run heavy from that perspective. And, you know, I just think that well, I'm not ready to buy the hype on shit. It's like this ascending quarterback. You know, he's going to be 27 years old. Yes. People have to remember. I think the, the, when he came out, the reason he dropped is because, you know, his ceiling was capped at that age. So I'm just not, we've seen it before. We saw it. Jaden Daniels last year. We've seen it with CJ Straub. We saw it with Carson Wentz a number of years ago. Like it's not just a linear path up in year two, just because you had a good rookie year. And I don't think he's in that elite category. So I think he's going to be more of a, you know, flatlined trending, trending negatively, um, starting week one. You and I are aligned on a couple of things. We're aligned on Caleb Williams with passing yards this year. We are aligned on Tyler Shuck too. One of the more bizarre things I've heard this off season is a seemingly widespread love for Tyler Shuck. And you pointed out, well, you know, I, and I've mentioned his

19:57inaccuracy down the field. Once you get past 20 yards, he's a really an accurate quarterback. But you mentioned something that I sh- that I think needs to be emphasized again, which is he is older. He's 27 years old. When you are that age, maybe your floor is higher, but your ceiling is lower in terms of progression, right? In terms of improving. So there's that. Exactly. And that's the whole point. Like we're quarterbacks when, you know, the older they get, the kind of the less value they are from an NFL perspective that you're essentially, this is who you are. This is kind of your, you're, you're ceiling and we see that with bone mix, bone mix is similar in that fashion. You know, it's hard for him to take that leap. He's just kind of who he is. And so I think you could see something similar with Shuck. And if you look at, you know, what I try to do is isolate, you know, true drives, like actually, how often did you get the ball in your own territory, drive length of the field and score? And so last year in that, that, you know, second half resurgence, they got a lot of short fields or defense created, you know, generate a lot of turnovers. Fifth highest rate of drive starting in opposing territory,

21:03which Shuck. And so if you, if you strip that out, like his points per drive on kind of length of the field drives was one of the worst in the NFL. So, you know, there's a little bit of noise when it comes to, you know, how he performed it in the last year. And yeah, they, they had to Travis ATN who I think is overrated. He struggled last year. But I just don't see this offense being, you know, this isn't the, uh, the greatest show on turf here. Yeah. So this is under 50 in this game. You went under in this game. Is that the best? Yeah. Okay. And since it is a St. Lions game, and then we just picked on Tyler Shuck, can you do one of my favorite cleavet A side bars is at any point in any season, right? It comes up. It flares up. It's like a virus that flares up once a season. People start to talk about Jared Goff as an MVP candidate. Can you give us the cleavet A talking points on why this will never happen? Yeah, he'll never get the full credit for, you know, for any, you know, outstanding offense. Like we've seen the Lions have been a top five offense a number of times. He's put up monster stats. You know, I think he've led the league in

22:05passing, uh, a couple of years ago. Like it's just, and he's just never received any credit. And I don't think he's even gotten a top five votes. You don't get a sniff. I don't even know. Yeah, I don't even know what it would take for him to win MVP. You have to have to get like, you know, set an NFL record. I think for touchdowns and have Jameera Gibbs not be the reason why the offense has been unlocked, but it's it's almost impossible for a guy like him to win. Yeah, I should never say never, but it's almost impossible. Five thousand yards or something. One seed with a one loss or something. Yeah, yeah, yeah, maybe he's in the mix. And yeah, um, okay, speaking of season long awards here, I know you listen, we lean on your parameters for these awards. All the time, Kelly and I during the season, is there one award? And maybe you've talked about one already on the show, but maybe let's go with one you haven't. I can't remember if we did or not, but what what said award you want to season that you'd like to talk about that you've made a bet on? Good boy. Um, I'm trying to think the last time what we talked about, I do think eight and

23:06Hutchinson, along with them, there's on about the Lions. I do think he, if he can play and all season not get hurt. I do think he's still valuable. I think, you know, obviously after Miles Garrett, he's the guy that I would attack from a defensive player of the year. Um, standpoint, like if you strip out two years ago, he was on pace for like 25 sacks before he got hurt. It was knocked out for the season. If you remember that last year, I had a really nice season. I think they're going to be face, you know, they've got the easiest schedule in the NFL. So they're going to have the lead a lot. He's going to be able to kind of pin his ears back. And I think he can rack up a lot of sacks and look, as great as Miles Garrett is, he is, you know, getting, getting up there in age, he's going to be 31. Aaron Donald coming back, I think is going to affect him. Like, is he going to get all the credit if this is like an elite top five defense or is Donald going to take some of that away? You know, that could be something, you know, it's really hard to, um, to go top what he did last year. So I think it's going to be really difficult for Miles Garrett to win

24:09it again. And then you've got Will Anderson. Will Anderson's on the best defense in a foul. But, you know, his numbers are not as, you know, elite from a sack perspective, as you think. So I do think Hutchinson has a shot to win it this year. If he can stay healthy and if that schedule ends up being as bad from an opposing quarterback, same point as it looks. Yeah. And we just flashed up again. One of the things you get with Cleveland Kelly and I again, we lean on these all year for defensive player of the year. You got to have 11 sacks. It's you, it's almost always a defensive line man. It's almost always from a playoff team. And Aiden Hutchinson would check all three of those boxes. One would think with the Detroit lies this year. Hutchinson third in the market behind Miles Garrett and Will Anderson Jr. Aiden Hutchinson plus 750 to win defensive player of the year. So once again, it's Cleveland analytics.com, the free 2026 NFL preview guide still there still though still what six days away from the beginning of the season. One of the best out there. You got one of the best. If you're still working on your prep work, you need to go check it out and really digest a bowl. A lot of people look at other preview guides are like, there's too much for me.

25:12Cleveland is not that way. And of course the survivor optimizer as well as we talked about that part, not free, but well worth it. Cleveland can't thank you enough man. Appreciate it. I appreciate it guys. Thanks. Cleveland T.A. CLEV T.A. on Twitter. One of the great NFL follow. Absolutely. Period. Coming back. How about a live college football release from right angle sports Mike Gordon? Let's go. He's got some splain to do on FSU. Let's talk about that too. Next. A numbers game on FESET. These sports betting network. Back on a numbers game live from Circa Resorts. Casino downtown Las Vegas. Derek Stevens Shangrall on the desert. It's Gill Alexander Kelly Bidlin. We get tweets made in the book. Buddhist man. It's just said good lord. We've made a mess of the tennis picks on the picks page. It's it's it's a too many cooks in the kitchen situation. Yeah. Everybody's trying to get some things fixed and yeah it starts with me putting them in later and I think they caused havoc.

26:14But one of the highlights of the tennis picks page right now is that apparently I have both I have both Putin's have a n-jangshin when in this one match where they play each other and they're both huge plus mother. So that's awesome. Again the picks are bonzy on the men's side. Yeah. Putin's have on the lady's side. We will keep repeating them here. That's right. And like you say best listeners in the game right. I can't believe how many tweets how many emails I'm getting over this. It's so great. Bill ladies losing his mind downstairs trying to help us figure it out. It's it's it's it's it's a comical and I got a shout out for the next show promo for prop points coming up next. Adam Schefter joining John Hansen stop it. That's a good one coming up here in just a couple hours. Shefty. As the as the cool kids go. It's right. Patrick Kelly said the tweet earlier was about the Justin Emory. It was about Justin Emory. Do an excellent numbers and logic to go from good to great and that I just want to get to miss. So please give me some more of those fantastic bat fantastic fantastic betting strategies from him. One being I believe the

27:15brain dead tankable lose. Okay. That's he was explaining his previous tweet. Yeah. Yeah. Got it now. Love it. Love go check that out at Vsign.com. Great article by Justin Emory. It might be on my list of next to book on the show. It's it's it's public. And then it's Justin Emory. Let's get Pablo on. Let's get Justin on. Yeah. Wait. No, that text message from Pablo. Yeah. Oh, all text him. Jim Campbell as a subscriber. I love the betting guides. Do either of you know if there will be one for the NHL this season. Do we do an NHL betting guide? Unlikely. That's what I'm going to say. Actually, no, that's not true. We did last year. Yeah. Did you have the Davis to last year? I think we did. Never mind. Tell listen to me. Yeah. I was who am I asking? I think it was just on the site. Right. I think we put it on the site. Hmm. Now you're asking me too many questions. Yeah. Mr. Drew Fitty. Gills play for Jagged today is the wrong price or listed as the wrong one. Okay. Can this be clarified? Okay. He goes of course. It was a bad day yesterday. But you know sports. Yeah. It was rules for society. Hey, gents. Are we sure that corruption doesn't infiltrate everything we do on a day to day basis from the planes we board to the fuel we purchase to the sports we love. It seems like it permeates

28:17everything these days pretty depressing. Yeah. It is. Yeah. Probably true. Mark Meltzer highlighting Joe Peters. Uh, Joe Peters appearance. Doing prediction market one on one earlier this week, covering the basics for that a better would want to know. So he's highlighting that. Thank you. Meltzer. Good. Joe was great. And Vegas vice whoever's posting the tennis picks for subscribers must have had a rough evening. Yeah. He's pointing out I have both both Putin seven and Zhang. That blessed you 35 Patrick Kelly also adds floor higher ceiling lower sounds like safe escalator riding guidance as well. Oh, yeah. Uh, okay. Ladies gentlemen, he is here to release a college football play. But I want to have a broader discussion about college football before that beforehand. It's Mike Reardon from right angle sports. Kind enough to join us on this Thursday. Mike. Good morning to you, sir. Good morning. Thanks for having us on after last weeks. FSU release. Yes, which didn't go well, which brings up a broader question. It's only one play, but we brings up a broader question, which is because I had Todd Wischnev on earlier this week. We had Todd Wischnev on it. And we got in this whole, you know, Todd's very big on. He's an in-game

29:20guy versus a pre-flop guy to begin with. But he pointed out and I agree with him, which is, you know, what are we really we say this going into the NFL season? What do we really know? College football more than anything these days, right? With all that goes on in the world of transfer portals. Is probably harder to wrap your arms around than anything now. And then you see the power rankings and it's hard not to let the you know, the average person tired not to let that seep into your brain as some kind of truth. Do you find that it is a harder world to deal with now in college football, specifically through the lens of power ranking? Well, absolutely. It's never been harder to rate a team for the upcoming season. You know, the way it used to work, I've been doing this for about 20 years and you know, I've had mentor, my mentor has been at Golden for obviously the whole time. And I've you know, spent a lot of time reading the work of Dr. Bob. I used to the great Dave Mollinsky. I used to spend time reading his stuff, watching his stuff. I even Alan Boston, crazy Alan Boston, loved you know, love watching his stuff. And anyway, the the old model used to be, let's look at last year's rating. That was kind

30:26of our anchor, whether it was the program rating or just the general rating for the team last year. And then you adjust like how many starters are back, whether the returners look like how many guys did they lose to the NFL. And it was always don't move too far. Let's not overreact and then just make subtle adjustments, you know, a few points up, few points down. And you know, that kind of changed in 2024. As soon as we had unlimited transfers, you know, it used to be you had to sit out a year. Once you could transfer pretty much every year. And once you could start getting paid and go wherever they were going to give you the most money, that just absolutely changed everything immediately. Basketball used to be the sport you could win immediately at like if you, you know, John Calipari 10 years ago, if you dropped him into any school, he's going to get two or three great players and it's basketball. So that's good enough. You know, he'd be a top 10 team immediately. Football, it was always it takes time. You know, Frank Beamer, I grew up in Harrisonburg, Virginia. My parents taught accounting at James Madison. Frank Beamer was always the story of like give the coach time. He was six years in and he was 24 and 40. He went two and eight in his six

31:31year and everyone wanted him fire. The president wanted him fire. Some reason the 80s stuck with him. And you know, they ended up going to 23 straight bulls. So that was always the stick with it. You know, Phil Stillo always talks about third year. The coach has his guys. He's developed them. They, you know, wherever you redshirted, you've been in the weight room. That was how you built a program in football. It took time. Now once, you know, what the signety did from James Madison to Indiana, he brought about 20 players over to kind of be the core of his first team there and they obviously made the playoffs, which is incredible. Indiana, I think they were the first team to lose 700 games in power four. So you could say they were the worst power four team ever. He took them to the playoffs. They obviously won a national title last year. You know, he's he's done amazing things and pretty much what signety has done has sped up the timeline for all fans and athletic directors. And so what he kind of started and I'm not saying my partner Jeff coined this term. I'm sure someone else has said it many times, but he calls it the lift and shift. And so what's going on now is you see this

32:32with goalish at Auburn. He took a lot. Most of his a lot of his offense from USF to Auburn. And then what you see at Oklahoma State, you know, Morris from North Texas there. He took a bunch of the offense messimaker some receivers. And in that case, Oklahoma State, we've got them about 15 points better power rating wise than last year, which is insane. He brought about 88 transfers in. And North Texas, they're down 13 points, obviously, because they lost a lot. So anyway, what it comes down to is last year's rating is probably never been more irrelevant. But sometimes you want to look at the last year team of another team to check the rating of your this year team. All right, Mike, the time we've all been waiting for. Let's put up the procedure. Once again, for those who forgot how this works, the right angle sports release procedure, which Steve Fesick always loves to do with any of his picks. What do you know? He stole it from them. Mike is going to give us a game in college

33:33football. You're going to add the bet to your bet slip before you bet it, though. Right. We'll give you 30 seconds to find the bet. You can put it in your bet slip. 30 seconds. We'll just hem and haul for 30 seconds. And then Mike will say go or cancel it. He says go bet it immediately. If he says cancel, it is not a bet. You'll remove it from your bet slip. We'll start the whole process over again. Like process or process process process. I don't know why I said process right there. This is an England. All right, Mike. Um, you're on your honor. You're on your honor. What do we got? Yeah. So the first bet that we will put in our bet slip for a possible bet is 177 North Texas, Indiana, over 55 and a half 177 is the rotation number. Old school North Texas, Indiana. I don't know if you know this Kelly, but defending champs over over 55 and a half. Now you're not going to bet it yet. You're putting in your bet slip. Um, I just want to say as we're stalling here for people to put in their bet slip. The Fernando Mendoza can have another big year. Are we

34:35just going to act? Not there. He's not. Um, we're going to act like Mike Reardon's chair is not like Star Trek. He's got a sweet game or a chair. Man, it's better for the back. William Shatner. It's beautiful. Yeah. Absolutely. It is definitely better for the back. I used to sit in these theater seats and all the sudden my back was shot. We've, we've improved the seat. Maybe he's not great for TV, but that's what we're doing right now, Gil. Okay. Yeah, it's great. It's a great office chair. I like the other ones though with the Reardon group on there. That stuck out to me too. Okay. I think we've given everybody enough time. Again, in your bet slip now, uh, 177 North Texas, Indiana over 55. Mike, what's the deal? What do we do? It. 177 North Texas, Indiana over 55 is a go bet North Texas, Indiana over 55 and a half. Go. Everybody go. Go. Go. Go. Go. Go. Go. Go. Click it on. And now we watch the Christmas tree move. Um, think FSU from 31 to 32. Liquid. He split last week. We will see where this over the North Texas, Indiana game goes here in very short time. Um, want to give some words on, on why exactly the 45 seconds, Mike?

35:41Of course, Gil. Yeah. So, you know, we, to say the most obvious thing, Indiana is going to do most of the work here. But the good news is Signeti loves to score as a big favor when they've been favorites of 28 points or more. His teams themselves have averaged 56 points per game. They're 12 and 4 to the over Indiana, 61 of the over in these situations. 83 to the over in the second half, which just shows you in these over match situations. No, Signeti keeps his starters in and absolutely puts the, you know, hits the gas. He's absolutely willing to kind of run it up. And he just like, he likes to keep, you know, excellence going at all times. Uh, yeah, Signeti, four straight J. M. U. quarterbacks who have conference player of the year. He's got Hoover this year in St. Arm talent. So I think they're going to he's going to fix the turnover problem. Uh, North Texas has got some injuries at the cornerback position. Jenkins Johnson out for the year. Canada been the best cornerback in camp, worth keeping an eye on his status for this week. And then anything you might, you and T does as a bonus. I appreciate it. Thank you. Car salesmen are annoying.

36:44Sign here, please. Never talked to one again with Flexcar the first and only month to month car. Oh, no. Get a great car. Switching the time. Flexcar, you drive everything. If you like YouTube, you'll love YouTube Premium. It's destroying athlete, creator, and YouTube Max. YouTube Premium enhances how I use YouTube with awesome features like offline downloads. So I could download my favorite training videos before I hit the gym. So no Wi-Fi doesn't turn leg day into loading day. Plus, I get ad free videos, background play, and so much more. YouTube Premium is like YouTube got some extra gains. Try YouTube Premium for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. Trial eligibility varies, terms apply, cancel anytime. A number is game on FISA, these sports betting network. Let's not sleep on the average Joe contest edge boost average Joe contest, puts you in the same pick and format as the circuit

37:46Friday football invitational. The humans invitational, the one that pros play top average Joe earns a spot next year's circuit invitational field. It's free to play. You can register anytime during the season. Edge boost is offering its customers a $1,000 deposit if you finish first for the week. Don't have an edge boost account yet. Sign up at edge boost dot IO with promo code vcid and fund. Well, there's a typo there and make sure your account is funded with at least $100. We added a word and have fun funding. That's right. Enter the contest today at bc.com slash Joe that's visa.com slash Joe. Not only do we get tweets, we get texts bill 80, recent founder NHL guide on the site, not PDF. I got to write the second time. You give a Kelly Bidlin two times to get that's right. Right kid does it. So not a full guide. It's on the site. That's right. Yeah. We're doing the same things last year. Okay. Got it. Okay. The Mike Reardon right angle sports release went from 55 and a half to 56 and a half and then to 57. Do I have a 57 and a half yet on my board? Let's see.

38:46Hang in tough at 57. Hang in tough at 57. Yeah. Now Christian will hide on Twitter says the draft King line moved to 56 and a half before Mike said go laughing emoji. Now what's the reason for that is because people don't believe that we're going to do a cancel and one of the tells there is that we were too close to the end of the segment. So I think some people were like, oh, they're not doing a cancel. And so they jumped the gun. Oh, this is like this is like my favorite. So we got to do the releases earlier in the second call. It's a good call. The that's a good call. Because going idea there wasn't going to be a cancel. So yeah, it's a good call. The it's kind of like when you watch this was always my favorite. You know, you know, I used to be a big poker player. Poker on TV always like drove me nuts though because you're like, all right, it's final table. We're down to the final two. Yeah. It's 9.58 P.S. Right. Next show starts at 10 and clock. Oh, this guy's going all in. What do you think? It's going to happen. That's like the, uh, I was I think I bring this up once every few years when, uh, Jerry Jones and

39:50Jimmy Johnson were feuding at the height of the Cowboys dynasty. And there was this, oh my God, there's a press conference. Is he going to be fired or is he going to stay? What's going to happen? What's going to happen? And Jimmy Johnson comes out in a suit. And I'm like, he's gone. It's like a tell on everything. He's not wearing a suit. If he's still a Cowboys coach, Fred Leonard's on Twitter, random question, but you have any idea how a proxy service would handle a customer that rebies into circus survivor after having lost on the Seattle Rams games next week. Thanks. I don't think there's any strangeness to that. You would just go to the same proxy and give him another thousand dollars. I don't know what the exact question is that he's asking. You mean because it would require. I think because you've already signed up. Yes. And you've gone through that process. Yeah, what process at that time? You've gone through that process. So you're wondering, could they just add it to your old? You have to sign up and say, I think what would happen to happen is you would have to sign up again going through the whole process

40:50again, but maybe using a different username for your newer entries. Oh, man. Okay. So I was checked. I was checking over the rules yesterday just to confirm, just to confirm like the deadline. Because I haven't signed up yet. I don't know if you know there were a lot of details in there about it. So I really encourage you to go read the house rules for the contest that's in place. That is an interesting question though. I had not thought about it that way. I would, I would, it is, but people have done this. It's not like you can't do it. So it's just a question. Right. No, totally. Yeah. Yeah. No, it's a good question. Just one that going like there's no riddle involved. Yeah. Yeah. That's my guess, but Fred, I would, I would ask the authorities. Yeah. You definitely don't want to be planning that way, right? And then lay all 10 on those Ram C-Hawks or some, you know, one of those early games that not have a chance to rebuy if that was what your plan was. Yeah. All right. Let's recap the bets on today's show because crack is coming up at the top of the hour. Obviously, the two tennis plays today. If you're, if you're looking at

41:52Vista.com slash picks, it's completely obvious. The picks are on the men's side. It's Benjamin Bonzi. Zach is on Benjamin Bonzi as well. He told us. I didn't know that plus 123 versus Ignacio Boussai. And then on the lady side, big dog, Julia Putin, Seva, plus two 35 versus Jens Shinwen. I said, how did Julia Putin, Seva at the Indian Wells? He was just chilling in the lobby. I remember that. Nobody knew who she was. She's 20th ranked player in the world. Gilded though. I'm like, hello, Miss Putin, Seva. She was like, oh my god. Somebody recognized me. Do you go up with one of those comically big tennis balls? What, go ahead, get your autograph. No, I just kept it moving because I see Julia Putin, Seva was somebody else. I might know, I'm tight. Also Red Sox, Oh, and two to start the month of September. That's not good. 28 to one. But the blue jays with an 11 and nothing win yesterday behind Dylan Seas. Really, it was that they, they just botched a base is loaded situation in the second. What was like a sixth to nothing game should have been a one to nothing game. Blue jays go on to crush the guardians 11 and nothing. So that's good for our plus 23 25 most wins in September. And then of course Caleb Williams passing yards, leader 20 to one,

42:56Nick Benito defense player, the year 14 to one, sir. NFL week one bets for me. Jags Jets. Six point T's or Jags Texans. Six point T's or Bucks, Bengals under 51 and a half Broncos plus three. Okay, I should also mention on the tennis. We have Carlitos to win the men's side. At plus 175. He's down to plus 135. We have Ega to win the lady side at seven to one. She's up a set here in round two already this morning. What do I leave out? Daniel Medvedev to win Q3 on the men's side at seven to one, looking pretty good. Amanda Nisimova to win her quarter on the lady side four to one. The one, the one, the one future we did lose was Grigicava long shot to win her quarter at 14 to one. Zach with his tennis plays. In addition to being on Bonzi with me, he's on a few dogs beyond that on the men's side. Alexei Popperin plus 126 versus Alejandro Tabilo, Jan Leonard Strouff versus Francisco Cerundolo, the good brother Cerundolo. Yes, the good Cerundolo and Dallabor, Sercina plus 128 versus Lutziano Darderi. Okay, there's got to be something

44:00wrong with our system or something. So yes, these are exact plays because Zach is also just texted me informing me that the Darderi play has shown up on the site at plus money as well. So be careful, he's on. Oh, hey, Severcina. Is that what you just said? Sercina, yeah. Sercina. Mm-hmm. He's on Sercina, not Darderi. Sercina, not Darderi. This is a mess. It's a mess this more. Yeah. John Balducci, right, Angle Chestcoat. If you're listening to Sirius, you're about 30 seconds ahead of streaming services. Oh, that's what could be at play. Jason Stark said the same thing. Hey, Gil, don't think it was a problem when released. I think it was, it was the listening medium. I'm on Serius and I got the number fine. He's peg on Delay for watching on the app. So then we have a serious person saying no, Sirius XM189 is actually good. The app is the one that's behind. Well, you know, we're just going to have all these potty mouths come on this show and this is why we got to put these delays in delays and delays and delays. Have I mentioned y'all the best listeners ever? Any format of radio ever? Mako, Shades and Mako. Good way to punish the early goers. Would be to go,

45:05hold on, move. Would be go Oppo on the play like the like prepping over then tell people to go under. Oh, so instead of a cancel, just go Oppo, Oppo. I think Fezick does that as a joke when he does his as well. And then John, you another factor in writing a sports lines movie before the plays are heard on the broadcasts. Is that different methods of listening? Yes. Two are watching. Veecent have different time lags. Well, we can do our part and do it more earlier in the second. Let's put it that way. Yeah. Zach, it's week two for us. Yeah. He's beginning your season, right? That's week one. It's not even a week two. That's right. It's week one. That's right. Because we still call things week zero. Yes, so there is some reason. Zach also with his college football plays Miami Stanford tomorrow night in Palo Alto over 47 and a half, two lane plus nine and a half versus Duke. And then in one of the bigger marquee matchups of week one, LSU minus 10 versus Clemson. Zach bringing it strong this morning. And then of course, the right angle sports play. Let's not forget what we're talking about. North Texas, Indiana was over 55 and a half. But once again, that's already up to 57. I probably

46:09should have asked the question also not being in mid season form. Cut off. What should you play this until it's a good call. But right now it is hangin tough as new kids on the block used to say hang in tough at 57. Hey, if you were interested in the Indiana side, that number, that wasn't really moved. And they, you know, laying 40 points a little bit better at a total 57. 55. What week one bets is over week one, you've only made the two totals play so far. NFL. Yeah. NFL barred me. College football. I'm in on this, by the way. I am in on this. I've got one other circle. I've got one other circle, but we're having dinner with this gentleman tonight. I need to confirm it before I. Oh, right. Randy McKay. The old Randy McKay. Randy McKay who barged into the studio, that you know, a lot of barge into the studio, by the way, only Randy McKays allowed to do it, but he barged in and Randy McKay was like, Hey, here's a pick, but don't say anything. Exactly. So, so I will confirm that tonight. And then we'll talk about it. Oh, yeah. So we've won NFL. Yeah, I've got the two teasers, two teasers in one total one side. So Jags with the Jets,

47:14Jags with the Texans. And guess what? If the Texans end up being favorites in that game, close, I think they close favorites. I'm going to be teasing up the bill side too and hope from open the middle that Bucks, bang goes under 51 and a half is the total I've bet. And then Broncos plus three at minus one 20 against the Chiefs Monday night, which I really like that. I don't necessarily care about being on the same side of something as some people in whatever sport you're handicapping. One of the guys though that I really like love if I'm on the same side of his cleave. And so I was I was happy to hear the first of all my Caleb Williams top passing yards. He like a few days ago was like I wouldn't hate that play at all like randomly. Was that he didn't even know about mine. And then this morning our opinions on Tyler Schuck sort of jibing. I was like thank God it's not just me. He randomly hated on the Jags too on Twitter right after I did brought up these. And then he said it on there. He said randomly. I don't know if that was random or not. He might not like my Jaguars so weak love plays. Bill Crackenberger unscripted next. It's a numbers game advice of

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