Adam Levitan’s 2026 ADP Targets, Fades & Bounceback Players That Will WIN You Your League

One other player that you listed as overvalued is Carnell Tate, who's the odds on favorite to be the first wide receiver off the board.

In this year's NFL draft, your thoughts on Tate and why are you fading him at this cost?

How does a guy who has never had more than 52 catches in his season?

And I understand he had a lot of good players on his team, but never worth 52 catches in his season.

And then in the biggest games this past year against the toughest competition against Texas, he has two catches.

Indiana, Big Ten Championship, 4 for 45 and 1.

Against Miami, in the playoff games they lost, 3-37-0.

In the biggest games, there was no production.

Normally those guys go in like the 20s.

How does Carnell Tate end up in everyone's mock to the Cleveland Browns with that kind of production level?

So I don't know, man, it just scares me from a prospect perspective.

And then, if you're going to go to Cleveland, how excited can we be about that?

Haha, that's him. That's the old chief.

Discussing early 2026 ADP values and bounce back candidates with Adam Levitan of Established

The Run, Theogram and your Fantasy Football Daily on the Fantasy Points podcast network

and Fantasy Points YouTube, excited to talk ball.

The lot of these drafts are starting earlier and earlier.

And Adam, we've always had this best ball right before the NFL draft.

That's been for several years.

But now you're starting to see more and more redraft leagues propping up.

FFPC is doing 350s right now.

So we actually have some real ADP to talk about.

A lot of money is already moving.

And ADPs are getting established earlier and earlier.

How static do you think ADPs are?

Is this something where you're going to actually see a lot of change?

Or ADPs are going to be pretty similar now,

barring injury when we're actually drafting in August?

Oh, that'll be a change of time.

I mean, just last year,

Amecha Agbuca was going like 110 overall.

He closed at like 40 overall or something like that.

I could come up with a ton more guys who's ADPs moved to tons.

So yeah, I think you'll see rounds and rounds and rounds of movement before August.

And some of that will be injury based.

Some of that will be vibe based.

Some of that will be coaching quote based.

I mean, Travion Henderson, nothing happened last year with Travion Henderson.

And his ADP went up like 30 spots within what, two weeks there at the end.

So yeah, there can be a lot of factors that change ADP.

I think what we're seeing now is I would not put a ton of stock into it.

What's the level?

Preseason touchdowns look pretty good for Travion Henderson.

The vibes were immaculate.

You had a couple of week period there,

but yeah, that didn't always work out.

Egg Bukka is super interesting.

Maybe we'll discuss him today.

But the player that I really want to pick your brain on,

when looking at bounce back candidates.

And it's weird to even talk about this player as a guy who sort of failed miserably last year.

But one of the worst picks you could have made at ADP was Justin Jefferson last year.

Complete train wreck disaster with JJ McCarthy behind center.

Was a locked in first rounder in 2025.

Now you're seeing him sort of at the one two turn area on underdog.

And similar range in these FFPC 350s.

Kyler Murray acquired by Minnesota.

I'm assuming you're on Kyler's going to win that job.

And how do you see Justin Jefferson in 2026?

Is this a absolute smash value?

Or do you still have like a little bit of caution with approaching him?

Yeah.

So in the Kevin O'Connell era, the only quarterback to fail is JJ McCarthy.

In other words, Kirk Cousins averaged 18 fantasy points per game in 2022.

Kirk Cousins 19 fantasy points per game in 2023.

Josh Dobbs shows up off the street in 2023 in relief of Cousins.

He gets 16 fantasy points per game.

Nick Mullins did it.

Sam Darnal did it.

Carson Wenz did it.

They all did it and supported Justin Jefferson.

The only one not to do it of that list.

And by the way, it's not the greatest list ever.

It includes Cousins Dobbs, Mullins, Darnal, and Wenz.

The only one to fail was JJ McCarthy.

And so I know like huge Kyler fan, but at 10th overall, 11th overall, 12th overall,

I think that Kyler will do enough to pay that off with upside for Justin Jefferson right now.

So yeah, I like Justin Jefferson to bounce back here.

I don't think there's a huge thing separating him from Amon Ra, CD, kind of that tier in there

with those guys, but I think he's right there, you know, CD Amon Ra,

Justin Jefferson there at the back end of the first round.

Yeah, and you can kind of go back to like early, early Kyler career.

Like his best season, early on was Deandre Hopkins and Arizona.

So like people sort of pointing at Kyler Murray, can he move the needle?

DeHop nearly had a wide receiver one season.

This is Justin Jefferson pretty much in his prime.

So I think I'm with you.

Also gives you the balance where you can start your draft.

Running back wide receiver, you can go wide receiver wide receiver with Justin Jefferson.

You can do so much very interesting stuff there.

So I think we're both in on him.

Yeah.

Another player who last year steamed up tight end one overall as a rookie,

Brock Bowers, there was sort of like people just steamed him up like crazy last year,

especially in the tight end premium drafts in FFPC main events per fantasy mojo.

He was like the fifth overall pick last August.

Similarly in the 350s, now he's going off the board as the tight end two behind

Tremac bride.

Do you see this as a he can be the Jackson Smith and Jigba in the Clint Kubiak scheme in Vegas?

How enthusiastic are you about Brock Bowers right now?

Current underdog value 23 and locked in in the first round in FFPC,

but usually a second half of the first round type guy.

Yeah, I think in those underdog formats, I think he is one of the more

undervalue guys that goes in the first three rounds is Brock Bowers.

You saw last year like you don't know where it's going to come from exactly,

but when you get a tight end spike score in the playoff weeks like we saw with Kyle Pits,

McBride had one.

It is just such an unlock to advance your team because so many of these teams in the best

ball playoffs are good.

They're deep.

They're healthy.

And then if you, but they don't all have good tight ends, you know,

and so if you get one that goes for 30 or 40, it's such a huge difference.

So just from a schematic perspective, if you were playing really large field best ball stuff,

I think that makes sense from a micro perspective, I mean, it just can't get any worse.

Going back to the preseason, I don't know if you remember, there was worry about Brock Bowers

in the preseason not playing all the snaps with the starters.

And a lot of these anti preseason freaks of which I disagree with many of them vehemently.

These people are like, it doesn't matter.

It's just preseason.

Fast word to the regular season, they came out of the gates before Brock Bowers injury.

He was not playing every snap.

He was losing snaps to Michael Mayer.

Okay.

I do not think that is going to happen going forward in any stretch.

They're also going to have better offensive line play.

They're also going to have better quarterback play with Mendoza.

I mean, and even despite everything that went wrong last year for Bowers,

he's still finished third in fantasy points per game,

month qualifying tight ends just behind George Kittle.

And so you mentioned Kling Kubiak.

Like, we'll talk about offense coordinators a ton on here.

I think it's really important.

Kling Kubiak, to me, is one of the sharper guys I actually want to bet on in the NFL.

Remember in 2024, when Kling Kubiak was with the scene, they were shredding.

And then they just got injured.

Everyone car went down a lot of everything.

They were shredding.

Then he goes Seattle and he shreds there.

He's just super adaptable to his players.

So I don't want to say he's going to be like,

Brock Bauer is going to be the JSN for Kling Kubiak.

But I do think he's a talent maximizer for his best players.

So yeah, I think Brock Bauer is just a smash at 23 overall right now and underdog.

Yeah, I mean, the JSN one, it's a little bit of hyperbole.

But when you look at the target competition,

he dodged any sort of bullet so far this this offseason.

I mean, they could conceivably add one of these veteran wide receivers through a trade.

But right now, it's like Jalen Nailer, Tucker, Jack Bash.

There's minimal target competition.

And I think Kubiak's scheme has just been so consolidated in the touches.

So I'm feeling really, really good about Bauer's.

And I haven't found anybody to kind of say anything negative about Bauer so far.

So yeah, we're all in on Brock Bauer's.

His ADP is going to rise.

The only other thing I'd say is that like when you're doing data,

driven stuff and you use historical sample,

how much do you throw out of injured samples?

In other words, Brock Bauer's is really playing through an injury last year.

Lamar Jackson was clearly playing through an injury last year.

How do you adjust for that?

I think right now, the reason Brock Bauer's ADP is down at 23 is because people are using

the data set of last year in which Brock Bauer's is playing hurt for.

So yeah, I think that's just something to watch out for.

Just briefly, the other two tight ends that are obviously up there,

Tray McBride is going somewhere in the top six in FFPC.

He's the tight end one off the board on underdog.

Everybody would have expected that one.

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Holston Loveland's sort of in his own little tier on both underdog and in FFPC.

Tight end three on both.

FFPC, you have to use a late second round pick.

Just your brief thoughts.

Are you embracing the other two highly drafted tight ends at cost right now

when you're looking at best ball and then early redraft ADP?

You know, the amount of times that Jacoby Bersett was dropping back last season

was like so outrageous.

It's tough to normalize what he was doing.

He was consistently averaging 45 to 50 dropbacks a game.

Most quarterbacks you're going to be around like the 30 per game mark.

And so you get these really inflated numbers for McBride and Michael Wilson.

The thing is, the Cardinals are so bad.

They're probably going to run it back with Bersett.

What's stopping him from dropping back 40 plus times again this season?

And if he does that, yes,

Trey McBride is going to absolutely smash a lot of his points last year.

If we're being fair, came in garbage time.

They were down 28 to seven.

And Trey McBride started having these huge drives with Bersett.

That's kind of a tough archetype for me to bet on at this cost.

But he is such a good player.

I'm willing to do it.

I'm not going to be like heavy Trey McBride though at this cost.

Like I'll probably be even with the field.

Loveland, incredible player.

I think there's some hidden upside in that Colcomat could still move on.

If that happened, I think it does matter.

But either way, it's so clear Colts and Loveland is so incredible.

I think he's a buy at current cost for me right now on Loveland.

Yeah, Loveland, I keep coming up with like reasons not to draft him.

And every single format, Dynasty, Bestball, Redraft,

he's so appealing because we saw the 15 target game in the playoffs.

And it's just like he's got some grok to him where he could just take over games,

put up huge smash weeks.

And if there is a player that's going to be the tight end one over McBride and Bowers,

you don't have to go down too far.

I think Loveland has the clearest path.

And then the year two, Johnson offense could really, really take off.

It was last year and year one.

I think they were like eighth and scoring.

They could break through and be like a top three scoring offense this year.

So a lot to believe in in Chicago.

What do you have going on this time of year over DTR?

Oh yeah.

You know, as you mentioned, everything coming earlier and earlier,

Bestball and everything else is up right now.

But you guys are watching this on YouTube.

We put a ton of effort into some fancy graphics and make myself not look as disgusting.

So head to establish the run on YouTube.

You can check out everything we're working on there.

Totally free on the ETR YouTube.

Yeah, good stuff over there.

I'm actually having John Dagle on Dynasty Life soon.

So you guys are definitely putting out some great stuff.

Let's talk about the running back that you specifically are looking at as an ADP value.

And I think a lot of people are thinking, oh, he's going to talk Kenneth Walker.

You're actually on Travis ETN.

And I really like this one.

ETN last year was an ADP winner.

Completely crushed as ADP.

There was a lot of like discussion in the offseason between him and Basel Tutin.

And ETN was coming off for really, really poor 2024 season where he was an ADP failure.

So now he's signed with New Orleans.

And he settled in on underdog right now.

He's going off the board at like 30 overall.

And he's going in a very similar range as the running back 15 and FFPC.

32 overall in the last 10 days in the 350 streets over there.

So right in that dead old school dead zone range.

But some really, really appealing traits with ETN in this in this offense in New Orleans.

Yeah, you know, you talked about guys whose ADP could change.

One way to think about this is what personnel moves could happen.

That would affect ADP.

In other words, I mentioned Colcomat maybe moving on from the bears.

I'd give that maybe like 10% or 15%.

But Alvin Camera either retiring or moving on in some way.

I would put closer to 50 or 60% and if that happens,

if and when that happens on Alvin Camera moving on from the Saints,

then where's Travis ETN's ADP going to be?

You know, I think that's the biggest thing holding it back right now.

As people are like, well, Camera is still going to be there on passing downs.

That's not good for ETN.

Camera being gone though.

I think you could probably see ETN get up into like 20th overall in ADP.

And so they get to play the Falcons, the Bucks, the Panthers, six times.

They get a ton of dome games.

I think most importantly in free agency, not only do they add ETN,

David Edwards gets this huge deal to play left guard.

David Edwards from Buffalo, of course.

Their offensive line could be really, really good.

I'm still waiting to see what Brandon Thorne thinks when he comes out with his rankings.

But yeah, I mean, I think Saints offensive line could be really good.

And then you have Kellym Moore playing at the fastest pace in the entire league.

And I don't think the defense is very good either.

They're going to get in some shootouts there as well.

So I don't really understand why Travis ETN would be the 15th running back off the board.

Other than people are giving Camera too much work in projection sex.

Yeah, it's a really interesting take.

And I think that the market is not fully in on Kellym Moore year two.

This could be a breakout offense.

We saw some real positivity with Tyler Schuck towards the end of the season.

At least being able to sort of move the needle and keep this offense in a higher level.

And I think with ETN, just the lack of backfield competition when you go past Camera in terms of the

targets, like ETN, we've seen him have a few decent seasons.

And we saw towards the second half of last year him have a couple of spike weeks as a receiver.

I think you're talking about potentially a 65 catch season if it all sort of falls his way

this year in New Orleans.

So really, really like that value, especially at the running back 15 range.

It's just there's some players around him that I want no part of.

And I think structurally he allows you to add a really strong RB two and a range that's not

going to cost you a lot.

Another player that last year was a huge ADP failure was Lad McConkey.

I mean, I remember a main event draft in Vegas where I took JSN over Lad McConkey.

And the guy next to me, it's like, as soon as I said Jackson Smith and Jigba, the guy next to

me is like Lad McConkey.

And so like he gets to Lad McConkey, I get JSN.

Like that sort of, that sort of like OTC decision sway drafts last year.

McConkey ended up being out targeted by Keenan Allen,

Quentin Johnson out out out performing him, especially the beginning of the season.

McConkey had some solid games in the middle.

And then the end was disastrous, including the NFL playoff.

So really heading downward, then you get the huge Mike McDaniel signing.

And the markets all in on McConkey returning value, he's at 38 overall, an underdog.

So you're not really getting a huge discount, but you're still very much in on him.

You're not getting a discount, but he's going like right after Garrett Wilson,

like right next to Mecca, Igbuka, you know, it's not a discount, but on underdog,

the wider series are going to get pumped up a lot.

And so at 38, I do think he's a value.

I think the reason that people are maybe think this is too high on McConkey is because of the

Keenan Allen stuff. They're not waiting enough how much Keenan Allen affected lad.

When the guy wins, Keenan Allen wins in the same area of the field,

Lad McConkey likes to win. It's really hard.

And Keenan Allen throughout his career has been a huge target earner.

I mean, that's just what he does.

He doesn't maybe do a lot with the targets.

But how many times have you looked up and seen Keenan Allen got 10, 12, 15 targets in a game?

And that's what happened to Lad McConkey last year.

I do not think Mike McDaniel is going to bring Keenan Allen back.

Mike McDaniel likes fast guys.

If you look back at what Mike McDaniel has done, going back to Miami,

he's always bringing in super, super fast guys.

Obviously, that's not Keenan.

So if they're going to roll with Lad,

Tray Harris, QJ, Gadsten, that is a chance for Lad to work inside,

work the middle of the field where he does it best.

And now have Mike McDaniel also.

So yeah, I just thought it was such that I was just wrong.

I didn't love Lad McConkey.

I didn't take a ton of him.

But when the Keenan Allen thing happened, I was like,

that's not going to affect Lad that much.

And it turned out it affected him massively.

I was just wrong.

Yeah, I think a lot of us didn't factor in as much just how locked in,

Justin Herbert was with Keenan Allen.

It was like his guy in some of his best years.

Keenan Allen comes back and it's like, okay, veteran's deference.

I'm going right to Keenan Allen.

I do think that helps a lot.

I think it's interesting with Lad.

The charger's offense is going to, we know it's probably going to score more points.

It'd be a little more fantasy-friendly with McDaniel.

I mean, I'll be shocked if it wasn't.

But there's a bunch of guys sort of at cost.

Are you sort of in on this entire offense taking a big step forward?

You mentioned Lad, but Omari and Hampton has sort of a hive right now.

He's going with the one to turn in some of these FFPCs.

Aronde Gadsten's everyone's sleeper tied in.

Then I think Quentin Johnston still has people believing in him.

I think they might take a wide receiver in the first round too or trade for one.

Are you just kind of all in on this offense?

Are there guys you're sort of a little cautious about?

We're behind ADP on Hampton.

We have Hampton around 1920 overall.

He's going 15th overall on underdog, just because I think Keenan Mitchell's good.

And I think Kamani Vidal is going to play also here.

So yeah, I think Hampton is one that's overbound.

There's a lot of trade rumors around.

Quentin Johnston, I know there was some aggregated headlines that

they weren't going to trade them.

I don't know.

Like that just keeps coming up the Quentin Johnston headlines.

And you mentioned the first round wide receiver stuff.

So I'm like in kind of wait and see mode on QJ right now.

I know that Harbaugh had a ton of faith in QJ.

Are we sure that Mike McDaniel has a ton of faith in QJ?

I am not.

So yeah, I would say Hampton and QJ would be the two guys that I probably

am a little queasy about.

And then like in the punt range, I think both

Keenan Mitchell and Trey Harris are interesting as young guys.

Mike Vidal clearly signed off on Keenan Mitchell.

And then Trey Harris, just like a young receiver going in the 180s

with a chance to get cleared out some more room if Quentin Johnston's gone.

That's interesting too.

Yeah, I just had Sigmund Bloom on a dynasty life.

And he's equally in on Keenan Mitchell from a dynasty lens.

Because it's sort of like the squint.

And you see some Devon H.Anne type plays you could run with him.

I really like that Mitchell pick up.

And I think if a lot of the markets sort of assuming

if a more in Hampton goes down, you'd see Kamani Vidal is like this high-end handcuff.

But Mitchell could be really electric in a McDaniel offense.

Very interesting stuff.

And I'll throw out just the real wild card for this offense.

You talk about a potential QJ trade.

Every time AJ Brown is mentioned as like, hey, after June 1st,

this guy's getting traded, it's going to be New England, etc.

Like the chargers always get mentioned as well.

And they have the cap space to make a big move for AJ.

So I don't think that that the door is closed on that one as well.

And then they've been linked to guys like Casey Concepcion at 22.

So really a fun offense.

And I think one we're going to be talking about all summer long.

A player that is sort of kicked aside right now.

And people are not even really discussing him is Travis Hunter.

And it's interesting because Travis Hunter last year

started to play really well, goes down with an injury.

And then Jacksonville acquires Jacobi Myers.

Parker Washington has this really strong end of the year.

And now you have people sort of arguing, who's the best value

between BTJ Jacobi Myers and Parker Washington.

Travis Hunter's ADP is like in the relatively free range at 153.9.

But you like him as a value right now.

I mean in redraft, if you're doing a redraft,

how could you not take Travis Hunter at 150 right now?

There is so much time until the season starts.

Think about all the things that could happen between now and then

from injuries to trades or whatever.

They have been adamant that they aren't going to trade Brian Thomas Jr.

And I don't really blame them for that.

I would not be in the business either of trading away 23-year-old

wider severs who are really cheap with Brian Thomas's skill level.

But yeah, I mean, clearly it's, I understand why people are out on Travis Hunter.

They go be Myers, got a bunch of money, guaranteed.

Parker Washington, they keep talking up.

They're not trading Brian Thomas Jr.

They're saying that that Travis Hunter is going to be a full-time corner.

He looked good as a wider receiver in those last two games,

man, when he finally started to get a lot of routes there.

At some point, offense is stagnating.

You don't know what's going to happen.

So with Travis Hunter, to me, it's just like at this price,

where can I get a guy that was actually going to win me weeks?

There's not many guys that go in the 150s that at any point

can win you a week.

Travis Hunter is one of them.

So I think in best ball, it's like worth a gamble right now at that price.

In redraft, it's like a no-brainer to put him in your bench

and see what happens over the next three, four, five months.

Yeah, I think it's a really strong take.

It's sort of you talk about all the range of outcomes.

If one of those receivers goes down with an injury, maybe Hunter, they have to use.

Maybe a cornerback develops, maybe they draft one on day two,

and they're able to use him more on offense.

There's just so many variables.

And when you look at the price that they paid to take him at two overall,

yeah, I think it's absolutely worth the risk.

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One other player that was sort of beat up last year,

and the marketplace, especially the dynasty marketplace,

was continually talking about how Isaiah likely is going to get this contract.

I remember when Jake Ferguson signed right before the season in August,

resigned with Dallas, people are like Isaiah likely is going to be the next one to get a very

similar contract in Baltimore.

Isaiah likely gets banged up, and we don't see the contract extension.

And in fact, Baltimore pays Mark Andrews,

which seemed kind of weird at the time.

But here we are.

Mark Andrews is now without Isaiah likely in Baltimore,

and you're back in on him as an ADP value.

He's cheap right now.

Oh, not only is Isaiah likely gone, but Charlie Kohler is gone also.

So I'm sure that they're going to add some tight ends, this draft.

I don't know though, man, like Mark Andrews could be back to a total full-time player.

And by the way, it feels like he's been around forever.

He's only 30. He'll be 31 in September.

Well, Mark Andrews.

So for tight ends, that is not even old.

I mean, you're getting there, but it's not even that old.

At the tight end position, I have some concerns with Todd Monk in leaving Baltimore.

I think that hurts the new kid.

They have a toy, and I say kid, with all due respect,

29 years old is going to be called plays this year for Baltimore.

I don't know a ton about him.

So there gives me some pause there, but he mentioned the cost.

I mean, it is like free on Mark Andrews,

who when healthy and playing a full-time role has been one of the best fantasy tight ends,

just really, really good producer.

So I think at this price, like, yeah, I see the flags,

but I'm definitely willing to take the gamble on Mark Andrews here,

and really all formats, I think.

Yeah, and I love how you put the when healthy,

because sometimes we've seen these guys take a while to bounce back

from the tight robe surgery.

We saw it with like Tony Pollard.

So, Andrews, if we're giving him some of the benefit of the doubt on the injury,

hey, he's the last man standing here in Baltimore.

Certainly, he's had a lot of success with Lamar Jackson.

So, interesting player there.

And for FFPC drafters, right now you're able to get Mark Andrews as the tight end 18.

This is the cheapest we've really ever seen him since his rookie year.

That's his average draft position on fantasy mojo right now,

is the 10-9 behind guys like Joanne Johnson, Dallas Goddard, Travis Kelsey.

So I think there's some, and Isaiah likely,

there's some ranges where he really smashes that one.

And maybe he's this year's version of Dallas Goddard,

a guy who catches a ton of touchdowns.

All right, let's talk about him.

Bucky Irving last year was drafted as the RB-9.

Now you're getting him as like the RB-18, RB-19,

going around the 3-4 turn.

We had Zach Robinson sort of as the ultimate hype man,

saying that we can use them like Bijan Robinson,

he can do everything Bijan can do.

And then Tampa Bay goes and signs Kenneth Gainwell,

who was top five last year in running back receptions.

And Sean Tucker is going to be back.

Do you think Tampa Bay is sort of telling you what they think of Bucky Irving with these signings?

Or is it really just more of an anti-bucky fade at this price?

So, I think like something was off last year with Bucky.

Like, he got hurt.

But the injury should not have sidelined him for as long as it did.

And there were some rumors I heard from multiple people

that there was stuff going on off the field mentally with Bucky.

I'm not sure that the Bucks want to trust him for full workloads.

So, they go out and add one of the leagues better passing down backs,

two minute backs, four minute backs in Kenny Gainwell.

I don't think that they signed him to that deal,

not to use him in that role.

And then even last year when Bucky was healthy,

they used Sean Tucker at the goal line.

Now, maybe that flips back, maybe Bucky's got his head on straight,

everything's good, and he gets the goal line work.

But they brought back Sean Tucker to play that role, I think.

And so, if Kenny Gainwell is going to be in most of the passing situations,

and Sean Tucker is going to be at the goal line,

and I'm a little queasy about the offense in general,

where does that leave you with Bucky?

It's not that exciting.

And like, there's all this lingering stuff with me

on his all field condition also.

So, those are just like a lot of red flags for me on Bucky,

where I'm probably just going to be a pass here at the 3-4 turn.

Yeah, I think it's an interesting take and probably one that I kind of lean towards.

It feels kind of like a dead zone back.

And I think we're kind of gravitating towards what he did as a rookie

and the sort of the volume that we saw for the first month of last season.

But it's a new offensive coordinator as well,

so we've got that little variable.

People are looking at it as like a net positive.

It could also be a net negative.

And Gainwell was awesome last year.

Like, people are totally brushing Gainwell aside.

I've loved clicking the button on Gainwell in Bestball Drafts.

I mean, he was fantastic.

He had like five out of six weeks,

as finishing as an RB1 down the stretch.

We were all starting him in the fantasy football playoff.

So the idea that he's going to fade away after his career season,

I'm not buying into that one at all.

And Tucker's just one of these kind of good at football guys

that's been with the organization for a long time.

And we know he's capable of finding the end zone.

Maybe he absorbed some of those goal line runs.

So a lot of things to not like about Bucky.

Just curious, he's going alongside Kyron Williams,

Javante Williams.

Are you more into those two guys at cost?

Are you leaning towards the wide receivers?

Yeah, I mean, you know, in Redraft, I've had this kind of strategy

where I go super running back heavy early.

So like two running backs in the first three rounds.

Running back, running back starts.

That's been really profitable in Redraft the last two years.

I haven't really formulated a strategy yet for this year.

But my gut is if those are the third and fourth round running backs,

starting like running back, running back,

and then getting into wide receiver, tight end, quarterback,

through those mid rounds.

Is interesting to me because I'm not excited about either of those guys.

That excited about either of those guys either Javante or Kyron or Bucky.

Dead zone might be back.

I mean, the last two years, people have been able to hit the dead zone heavy

and not be punished for it.

This year, it might actually be back.

We're going to talk about that all summer.

You mentioned Garrett Wilson earlier as a guy that you liked less than Lad McConkey.

Really seems like you don't like Garrett Wilson at cost.

Devils advocate will be, hey, Adam, this guy's going to have a 35% target share.

And he's had all these years, 100,000 targets.

Don't you like targets, Adam?

What are you talking about?

So Garrett Wilson here at the three, four turn,

target chasers are going to click that button, but you're off of that.

I mean, that was the argument they gave me last year about Garrett Wilson.

I think I clicked Garrett Wilson zero times last year.

I know he got hurt.

My question always with guys like this is like,

do I ever get buried at this cost?

Right?

Like, yeah, what's his real ceiling outcome when Aaron Glenn is his coach?

And Geno Smith is the quarterback and the offensive line situation and the offensive culture

situation is what it is.

Does Garrett Wilson ever bury me at this cost of 36.9?

I just don't think so.

I think I'm way more likely to get buried by Lad or Luther Burton or Rishi Rice if he's on the field

or Teterioria McMillan.

I think those guys are way more likely to just go out there and bury me.

So I get it on Garrett Wilson.

If he stays healthy, I'm sure he'll be fine on compiling volume.

I just think it's going to be hard to go completely nuts when you play for the Jets.

And it's not his fault.

It's just it is what it is.

Yeah, Jets have been one of these teams where they've had really talented skill

position guys in Garrett Wilson and Breeze Hall and terrible quarterback play,

terrible offensive coordinators.

Geno Smith behind center again, the ultimate bridge name.

Two overall, they're going to miss Mendoza by a pick.

Your thoughts on Breeze Hall this year?

Because we were really rooting for him to maybe end up in a Kansas City either last year by a

trade at the deadline or this year as a free agent.

I think a lot of fantasy managers were hopeful, beyond hopeful, that he'd get out of New York.

He's back in New York and the cost is somewhere around 30 overall on both underdog and FFPC.

Are you in on Breeze?

Are you also fading him along with Garrett Wilson?

I mean, it's just it's I feel the same way I love Breeze as a player.

Like honestly, like one of my favorite I think underrated running backs in the NFL as a player.

If you're not going to score a lot of touchdowns at the running back position,

like how does he bury me at this cost?

You know, is he going to score more than six or seven touchdowns?

This year it seems really, really hard for me to see that unless Geno plays way better than he

did last year. And by the way, I do think Geno will play better than he played last year, but

not by a ton, you know, so yeah, I feel the same way about Breeze as I do with Garrett Wilson.

I don't think he's going to bury me at this cost and I'll probably be significantly underway.

One other player that you listed as overvalued is Carnell Tate, who's the odds on favorite to be

the first wide receiver off the board in this year's NFL draft.

He's going off at around 56 overall on underdog and for you, FFPC managers going somewhere

in that 65 through 68 range. So he's getting pushed up, but not to a point that we've seen some of

these rookie wide receiver one selected guys like Marvin Harrison, Jr., Malik neighbors,

etc. He's going lower last than last year with Teteron Macmillan at this time.

Your thoughts on Tate and why are you fading him at this cost?

Yeah, you're going to have to explain this one to me because I, you know, I'm getting out of my lane

here. I am not a dynasty prospect bro whatsoever, but how does a guy who has never had more than 52

catches in his season? And I understand he had a lot of good players on his team, but never

wanted 52 catches in his season. And then in the biggest games this past year against the toughest

competition against Texas, he has two catches. Indiana, big 10 championship, four for 45 and one.

Against Miami in the playoff games they lost, 3370. In the biggest games, there was no production.

And so like, I, and you want to take him, you know, I say, oh, he's, he's crazy town. He's a crazy

good route route runner. Normally those guys go in like the 20s. How does Carnell Tate end up

in everyone's mock to the Cleveland Browns? And by the way, if he's going to go to the Browns,

how exciting is that for fantasy? But anyway, how does he go to the Cleveland Browns in the top six

with that kind of production level? So I don't know, man, it just scares me from a prospect perspective.

And then if he's going to go to Cleveland, how excited can we be about that either? Yeah, the Cleveland

wants the interesting one because it would just be like a death sentence. You can make, you know,

make arguments that if he ended up in Tennessee, he could be established himself as the wide receiver

one there like we could sort of get behind him at a table offense. And then I think if he avoids

Cleveland though, my question to you would be let's say he avoids that landmine for Cleveland.

Let's say he goes off the board as like Washington's pick at seven. Are you more open-minded to him

with obviously you are, but with Jaden Daniels in Washington, which has been another,

some of the Washington beat reporters are sort of insinuating that they're really like Tate,

they might take him there. Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, clearly like he's a better player than

the production has shown, right? Because the NFL would not be like all over him as a top seven pick.

So I get it from that perspective. I do think it's interesting that

you mentioned all the guys like the rookie fever has gotten so hot, especially in basketball

that normally these guys go way higher. So like I don't want to be like too firm on this because

I don't want to be out on a guy who is going to go six or seven or four overall and is going

in the 50s because normally like you said, those guys have gone in the teens or even higher. But

yeah, man, I'm just queasy about the whole thing right now. I'm just right now. I'm just going to pass

for now. Yeah, we'll keep an eye on Carl and El Tate in the landing spot. I think I like him a lot

more than Adam does. We're going to try to break you down, Adam, and turn you into an El Tate.

Tell me why he did nothing. Why did he do nothing? And if he's so good, why did he do nothing in

these huge games? Well, I think that the target competition is real. I think Jeremiah Smith,

even though it's the the 2027 class of quarterbacks, we might see like six quarterbacks in 2027,

draft in the first round. I think Jeremiah Smith still might be the first pick in the NFL draft,

like a special, special wide receiver. Tate, every year has had to play with these guys. It was

like Buka the year before. So the teammate competition, like that's a real thing in Ohio State. But

a lot of the tape is really positive. It's sort of like a George Pickens if he was a better

separator and didn't have any of the like the off field locker room type concerns early on.

And I think one of the reasons he's also going higher is you know this. This is a draft that

is a little more wide open. The best players in this draft class are like a safety and offensive guard.

So we and only one quarterback going off the board. So and Jeremiah loves going to be a top five

picks. You've got all these like off positions. So I don't think people really know what to do. But I

think they do like carnal Tate and I think his draft capital reflected. So we'll continue talking

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I participate in McDonald's while supplies last. Let's talk about a little rapid fire.

I'm going to just kind of say what the guy was last year in his current cost and you tell me

if you're interested or out. Sakuan Barkley last year, of course, coming off of his magical

2,000 yard season the year before. Philly wins the Super Bowl. Naturally, Sakuan goes inside

around one and the first half around one. We saw him go anywhere from like the 102 to the 106.

Now he's kind of locked into the second round. Are you in on a Sakuan bounce back season?

I would lean more towards out at this cost. I think Jeff Stoutland leaving the Eagles matters a

lot. Their offensive line has gotten older, more injured, not as good. To me, that was one of the

biggest issues last season. Obviously losing. I was getting rid of Kevin Petulo. I think helps a

ton. So I would lean underweight here on Barkley. The biggest issue with Barkley is like they don't

really use him in the past game. Jalen Hertz does not throw the running back a lot. And then when

they get to the one yard line, they're going to touch bush. And so it's hard to find outs for

Barkley when he's not breaking off long runs and scoring touchdowns on those. So the floor is

is lower than I think people realize on Barkley. Yeah. And I'm looking at Barkley. I want to be

more in than you are, but it's sort of the opportunity cost of taking him at 20 overall. He's going

ahead of Drake London. He's going in this is FFPC going ahead of Colston Lovelin. We talked about

Colston Lovelin, especially in tight end premium could be a smash pick. And then if I want to chase

an old guy with volume, I'd probably take another year of Derek Henry overtake one Barkley as well.

I think it's a similar bet. But with Henry, we saw him really smash down the stretch last year.

And some things to like. Like you said with Declan Doyle coming over to Baltimore. Let's continue

this one. Kenneth Walker, who last year was one of the biggest bus sort of relative to cost at

the running back position. He was going at the three four turn in FFPC drafts. Obviously had very

similar points per game to Zach Charbonne. Now Kenneth Walker completely flips the script was

unbelievable in the NFL playoffs ends up being the Super Bowl MVP Seattle wins the Super Bowl.

And then he goes and lands in what many considered to be the nuts landing spot for running back in KC.

He's up to running back 11. So running back 14 last year. Now running back 11 and climbing

in FFPC and on underdog. Are you in on Kenneth Walker and fully embracing him in an Andy Reid

offense? I think so. And because it's like I it's almost ironic to me because the entire fantasy

community was like Kenneth Walker's good. You should play Kenneth Walker more. Why is Kenneth Walker

losing snaps to Zach Charbonne and to the point where people in the fantasy community like like

stop talking about Kenneth Walker. He sucks. It's annoying. And see Zach Charbonne is playing more than

him. And then Zach Charbonne gets hurt and everybody's like oh yeah they should have been playing.

Do they even win the Super Bowl if Zach Charbonne doesn't get hurt? I don't know. They might not.

You know, so they finally got everyone to see what Kenneth Walker can do. He's never had more than

228 carries in his season. I think he'll eclipse that. But most important to me is yes, he's really

bad in past protection. It's really hard to use him, especially if you're trying to protect

my homes in past protection. But Andy Reid has always been really good at scheming screens to his

running backs. Kenneth Walker in the screen game is awesome. 1.64 yards per route run last year.

For Kenneth Walker is a lead at the running back position. And he was over 1.3 yards per

route in each of the last two seasons before that. And that stuff is important at running back.

The guys who like show up and fail at running back are often like really bad yards per

route run like below one. So I think Kenneth Walker's four ceiling combo is really really strong

here. And maybe they change how throw heavy they are in the red zone here. They've had such bad

running back play like they're always among the league leaders in red zone throw rate. Maybe Kenneth

Walker gets changes their mind there and they call more run plays inside the five yard line.

Yeah, and it's really interesting because we haven't had a blue chip running back like this

in an Andy Reid offense sense like young Kareem Hunt. And you go back to like some of the names

associated with Andy Reid, the shady McCoy's guys like that who had such immense success. So I think

I'm in on it. I do worry that like when he keeps steaming up and up and up, it could end up being

a little bit more of like a do I think he's the league winner at cost? No, but I think it's like

a structural bet where you talked about being able to embrace running back running back. Maybe

start your draft out with a Jonathan Taylor followed up with a Kenneth Walker and then you could

hit wide receiver after and sort of avoid those dead zone guys. So I think he makes sense where he's

being priced. I just wonder if it's going to be is this going to be like a league winner. If

you're searching for the league winner in the second round. I don't know if it's him, but I think

you make some really, really good points on that one. Talk about Malik neighbors where we don't

really have clarity as to when Malik neighbors will be fully back. He's still going off the board

as the wide receiver eight, which you have to use around the two 10 in these FFPC drafts very

similarly priced on underdog. If not a little bit higher, do you think the market is maybe a little

too optimistic or you like this is the injury discount I've been searching for? Well, you know,

this is all do you think Malik neighbors will be healthy and at what point will he be back to

100% the latest quote we have is from Joe Shane, but this was a month ago and by the way, Malik

neighbors coming off ACL and Maniscus tears Shane said the plan is hopefully for neighbors to be

ready for training camp again. Don't hold me to it. Things change. I mean, I'm sure you guys also

saw the video of patching my homes throwing this week just a hundred days removed from his ACL tear.

The way that this injury stuff is gone, I went from leaning super pessimistic on guys like this,

maybe three, four, five years ago to now I'm way more open and optimistic on it just because of

the way that rehabs and modern medicine has changed things. So I like neighbors. I want to bet on him

to be healthy. My big concern here, Theo is I have a sticky note here on my desk and when I'm drafting,

I look at this sticky note and what it says is do not put a lot of money on true doles and by

true doles, I mean Shane Waldron, Arthur Smith, Nathaniel Hackett and yes, Matt Nagy also who is

now with the Giants. So that gives me some pause because I think Matt Nagy is just like a stone

cold doll in the realm with those other guys, but yeah, I mean, if neighbors is healthy,

it's really hard to say you're not getting a discount here. Yeah, and on the flip side,

you mentioned the fear of Matt Nagy, which I think a lot of us have, but you've got this really

mobile quarterback who was really successful on a fantasy point per game mark last year, Jackson

Dart, who used to talk to some people and they're like, I have to take Jackson Dart, especially in

Bestball. This is a guy who could put up all these spike weeks. It's a no brainer and it's a type of

like low end QB one that could smash for fantasy. Last year, we saw a year or two quarterback end

up being sort of the league winner at the position. Are you also sort of trepidacious and cautious

about embracing Jackson Dart for your builds or is that a different guy? It sucks. No, I mean,

it sucks as I love Jackson Dart. I think he has like not the way Josh Allen looks or plays this

early, but the way he accounts for fantasy scoring points. In other words, when the Giants score points,

Jackson Dart is so likely to be so heavily involved in all of it where they're running for touchdowns

or running or throwing bombs and stuff like that. Just like Josh Allen did when he was and does

really. So yeah, I like Jackson Dart. I don't even see what's his cost now on underdog. God.

I mean, yeah, Jackson Dart, Jackson Dart's down there. I know for for FFPC, it was similar for

he's he's actually steamed up more in FFPCs like the QB six, but again, there's not a whole lot

of a whole lot of sample size here underdog. He's probably QB 11, QB 10. Yeah, yeah,

exactly. We have him as QB 10 in our rankings and underdog ADP is QB 11. So yeah, I like being

a little bit high on Dart right now. I don't want to go nuts. I don't want to go nuts. Yeah, it's

some like he's surrounded by Herbert and Lawrence where we're like, okay, Liam Cohen, Mike McDaniel,

or you could take Jackson Dart, who's like, you know, can mat that naggy get it together. So I

completely get it. But the the scrambling ability makes him very, very appealing click, especially in

basketball. Let's speaking of mobile quarterbacks, what's really interesting is, you know, in the FFPC

streets last year, we saw QB two and QB three steamed up considerably. Like last year, it was like

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were neck and neck in ADP. You had to use like a mid third round pick

in Redraft on Lamar Jackson. And then Jaden Daniels coming off of his magical rookie season was

the QB three. You had to use like a three four turn. It was actually extremely common. Jaden Daniels

is one of the most common FFPC picks last year. The thing people were doing in like main events was,

I'm going to take Jaden Daniels at the at the the three 12. And then I'll take Terry McClure

at the four one. I'll get that correlation. And it's sort of buried a lot of teams. Now the

quarterback marketplace is weird on both underdog and FFPC. Josh Allen is in his own tier. You're

using like a two three turn pick underdog a second round pick on Josh Allen. And you're getting

access to QB two and QB three a lot later. It's still Lamar Jackson and Jaden Daniels. But like in FFPC,

it's 30 spots later. Lamar Jackson going 30 spots cheaper. Jaden Daniel going Jaden Daniels going

about 35 spots cheaper. So when I ask you in on the QB two and QB three, it's a little different

than last year. It's a much cheaper bet. But are you embracing this sort of range of quarterback?

I take it for best ball. Take it for redraft. Take it any way you want.

Well, I thought one reason that quarterbacks were getting pushed up last year is because round three

was so weak. And if you guys remember drafting last year was like, God, who do I take in round three?

Who do I take in round three? And a lot of times it was just and I thought this was good too.

Take Josh. Take Lamar. Take Jaden. Take one of these really, really safe quarterback bets.

It turns out that when your rushing ability is sapped in Lamar's case by injury in Jaden's case

just by getting hurt for the year or not being able to play through it, yeah, it's going to look

really, really bad. I still want to bet on mobile quarterbacks as these really safe floor ceiling

combos, especially in leagues where I think I'm better than my opponents. In other words,

like a 12 team home league, I'm so much more likely to take Lamar or Jaden because I can just

know that I'm going to win there at quarterback and I can beat them at running back and wider

receiver and tight end in a million other ways draft, waiver, wire trade, whatever. In more competitive

stuff like FFBC or best ball, I'm going to think more about it structurally. I don't have a strong

take yet. My initial gut, though, is that it's just too much of an overreaction to injuries last

year. Lamar Jackson last year only ran the ball. I believe it was five times per game. Yeah, 5.25

carries per game last season for Lamar clearly, clearly, clearly, he was playing through injury.

He peaked at 11.7 pairs carries per game when he won MVP. I think this year getting him back into

that eight or nine carries per game, that's where he needs to be for the Ravens and for fantasy.

And then Jaden, Jaden wasn't even a leg injury. It was an elbow injury that he ended up getting shut

down with. So I think Jaden will be fine. So my initial gut is that those guys are going too far away

from Josh, like the gap should be closer. Yeah, I think I might be even more in on Daniels

with Lamar Jackson. It's sort of like getting a little older, was banged up last year. The

rushing production went down. But with Jaden Daniels, I feel like he's just such a smash pick.

And you get a little bit of delta between the two. It's maybe 10 picks cheaper on some underdog

draft. So I've been drafting a ton of Jaden Daniels. And I think it'll continue in the redraft

season. This was so much fun today breaking it down with you. I also had a good time on your

guys channel the other day. Check that out on establish the run YouTube. If you're watching this

on fantasy points YouTube, Pat Karein and I joined Evan Silva, John Dagle and Adam. I

broke down a dynasty rookie draft. That was fun. I know Adam, you're a big dynasty guy now.

You're getting that reputation out there. But let him know once again what you have going on

heading up into this off season. Yeah, you guys can check us out. Totally free on YouTube. And

obviously totally free on Twitter at Adam Levittin all one word. But yeah, check us out on the YouTube

machine. If you like watching YouTube fantasy stuff, we try to get as virgin as possible as we

can for the hardcore guys trying to make as much money as they can. Yeah. And check out the

previous fantasy football days. I had Matt Harman on had JJ Zachary Sinon. Sigmund Bloom joined me

on dynasty life and John Dagle of established the run will be joined me on dynasty life.

If you're watching this on the YouTube channel, make sure you're checking out fantasy points dynasty

YouTube channel for all of my dynasty life episodes. We'll see you soon.