AI’s 10% Chance of Human Extinction: What You Need to Know

0:00All righty folks apparently the people at Anthropic and open AI are now saying the quiet part out loud. What is that? They basically believe that there is a greater than 10% chance that AI will kill all human life in the next 10 years. We're going to talk about this crazy thought process. We're going to talk to two guys that are a not engineers, but be sold this technology for over 30 years combined. And Matt I got to ask you again all over my X speed this morning and the topic person quits and discussed because he believes not enough is being done to save humanity and AI is going to be the death of all of us. What do you think when you hear headlines like that? Better have a cord that you can kick out of the socket. Still needs power right still got to have power. You know I mean I think it's you know how much how much life ends up imitating you know Hollywood right.

1:01And these these futuristic ideas and what that actually ends up looking like you know I sold the stuff as you did. And so for a long time you see how it can be a huge help. And so what we used to do is we used to automate human process and the reason that we did that was because companies had to reduce error rates. And they had to increase productivity. Yep do more so. Yep. And so you know people then wonder where all these amazing profits come from. They come from companies like IBM firing 8,000 people in the HR department. Yeah right. So you'll see more of that this is an essentially that is my play for less for for jobs that's my that's my play for jobs it's it's a long swing but I think we get to you know like I said I still think we get into the fives. We're starting to see some structural cracking you know now for sure. We're back to most guys looking at it and saying we're going to have to make cuts if we're going to make a revenue projections.

2:07Which seems like it might not be which seems like it might be counterintuitive but yeah I think that you know AI is. It's the road to hell is pay with good intentions. And I think that you never get something for nothing and so there's definitely going to be a trade off. I was working with a company yesterday and I I call my competition in my market I call the other I call the other guys that do what I do right. And they use they swapped over to AI. And it's pure garbage. Oh yeah. I'm just like this it sucks like your satisfaction rate with your clients is going to go into the toilet. Yeah. And so see my experience with Southwest Airlines never flying them again. Yeah. Exactly. It's horrible. It's horrible. So yeah it's scary stuff you know we'll wait and we'll see what happens. I mean the government doesn't really do anything well. Well yeah I actually have a couple thoughts. I mean because I have so many things running around my head.

3:08Yeah. First and foremost if and again I don't believe these stats but apparently this smart person does. Yep. If there if there was any technology that had a greater than 10% chance of killing all human life in the next 10 years. Wouldn't it be prune for all governments of the world to kill said technology. I mean wouldn't that make total sense? It would. Okay I'm just I'm just curious if that's where you know if you really thought that was going to be it's it's sort of like the rise of the Nazis. If you saw it coming don't you think you would you know step in front of that and stop that wave. Yeah. So again that's one so again the more that these loud mouths say stupid shit like this and spin up all the US citizens. We are not going to build data centers to because your point earlier kick out the plug. Well you know what what's better than kicking out the plug. Don't build the data center. Right. Don't give them the power. And you know Bernie Sanders and that ilk like him which I can never agree with anything Bernie says or at least near nothing I can remember.

4:08Yeah he's going to be proven right if you jackass is keep saying 10% of you know chance that all of us die Bernie's going to get bands on data centers. It's just sure it has to happen right. I mean you would think right. I think it's like it's like it's like it's already out of Pandora's box already right it's already out and so it gets. Unbelievably smarter every day that passes. I'm amazed because I've been a chat GPT user for a long time. I'm amazed at how much better this version is versus the first version that we got access to. Even for us like we started off in robotic process automation and then it became you know then we had to say things like so I my famous line was things work automatically not automatically. But here's the thing AI is taking that out of the equation it does work automatically now it still works off these large massive it's called a large language model it's large massive data sets. The question is is who's going to have the best data set that's most easily accessible and able to turn through you know I don't think that's the question again if I'm thinking of again I'm trying to play the angle that AI is going to kill us all not AI is going to make everything that's what I believe I think AI is a great technology.

5:24I think it will lead to more I think I think AI will be a massive net positive but I'm trying to play this angle that this jackass says that all of us are going to die in a decade. And to me it's not the letter language model that's the problem it's the agents that we we humans create sure of course that run a muck and we've already seen some of these right this you know this hack of this other system because it got to the web these zero day hacks. To me it's going to be you know the thing that I have a great fear of is you know these you know mom and dad people are setting up AI agents to do some kind of automatic trading. And that's just going to it's going to blow up spectacularly and people are going to go to zero not know what's going on and then they're going to blame AI and it wasn't AI you're the jackass that built the agent right yeah very what you want yeah very often people are interested in what we would always say you know when we were looking at our competition we would say we have you know 100. Thousands of bots deployed but we don't have any of those issues because of our testing process we have an iterative design process and because we have iterative design which means a step by step design process.

6:31And testing because we have an iterative design process we won't run into that will uncover those things before we actually go live. And that's where we used to be our competition and so very often that was the answer but I think where we are now is it's interesting that that's where the concern is now I'm going to say. And that's where the question is now I believe the biggest concern should be around quantum computing. Okay that's right. So I think so the level by which quantum is ahead of where we are today is. Galaxies away from where we are today okay but they're not that are making it happen so quantum computing is just faster right or no what what what would how would you what's the variable that is galaxies ahead. Chasins and laws of physics essentially oh okay like it it's just reading the quantum that's what should scare you okay. Quantum skids should share the scare that every living day lights out yet because it is advanced on and and they're not far off okay like they're not are off and and you know this is what you're going to.

7:46Very very large you know largely speaking the scary thing about AI the scary thing about quantum the scary thing about you know those things is that the government that does that the best is going to be the winner. So let's define the best because I think that's the fear right because again if you just play this game out 10% chance of killing all of us Bernie Sanders in the elk if the I mean if the masses revolt. Data Center Dana Sanders will never be built and thus the US will quote unquote lose to China yeah but I'm not sure what lose to China means right China has open source models now that you know you can download and run on your own system yes. Here's I can tell they're pretty good and cheaper than everything else what what does what does losing to China mean it just means we die by Chinese bots instead of US bots. Yes I think that I think that the information and control of data is power and then they would have all of it and we would have none of it and if you look at our suddenly poke back at that so let's just assume that let's assume we don't build and like an anthropic and open AI go bye bye because you can't develop AI anymore I'm just making shit up.

8:58Yep sure and then the Chinese keep doing what they're doing in you know 18 months from now they got a gentick AI and yada yada yada but isn't it possible that you can still download it on your own gear and run your own stuff and have your own data sets and it's just it's just another you know version of machine learning and all of that I mean yeah I think that so I think that you know we never get we never get the best right so we're always. We're always behind you we would be way far behind what they would actually and again if you look at it you know aircraft carriers planes fighter jets nuclear silos sure it's all computer based so if we give up and don't have something that protects the infection of that because you would be. You would be amazed at how criminally low tech air traffic control is in our country I've been in one of those towers yeah unbelievably it's I mean it's it's a step above paper yes step above paper and the skills and the pressure that those guys face like air traffic controllers that's the guy that I pray for on the day that I fly.

10:22Like those people are amazing with working with such low tech but there's always a conversation we need to you know we need to really revamp that when that anything gets revamped what is it get revamped with it gets revamped with a better system a newer system you know hopefully one that's more secure but how often is that the case it's just less it's just less secure in a different way right right so yeah I mean at the end of the day I think you have to look at it and say. Eventually we're all going to meet our maker and and I have no idea how that's going to happen it could be it could be AI it could be a bus it could be another another pandemic it could be anything I have no idea and so you know it it's it's humbling but it brings you back to a life lesson of you live you live life for today and you build what you're supposed to build and be a good steward of that over time and you know I I have the utmost confidence that the a great product will be used to do the wrong thing and governments will react poorly

11:32seems like a fair recipe consistency I just sounded so brilliant right there yeah exactly but let's let's play the yeah let's play the positive side because again I think I just think it's wild that these people are saying it's going to kill all of us I mean I why would you put that out there I mean it's just I mean talk about a dumb idea yeah so when you step back and just look at AI and let's let's let's say we survived the next 10 years so let's look out 20 years. I think the you think AI will be looked at like the internet as a net positive sure the internet has a dark side in the dark web and you know it can be used for money very bad things but I would I would guess on total on mass the internet is seen as a net positive yes do you think AI will be seen in the same like yes some black hat folks are doing some malicious things but for the most part it's good what where do you come down on that is social media a net positive oh that's a good question audience let us know in the comments below do you think social media is a net positive or not

12:37I don't know that it is either but I will say that so the internet more broadly right the internet no question no question no question the internet the internet has has helped the masses get reached and given people the opportunity to say yes or to know to pursuing something better than what they're doing today. Okay so we both agree on the internet now social media so again great question hadn't thought about it got 60 seconds for stalling yeah one of the things that I think social media doesn't get enough credit for so this would be a positive is it allows voices like you and me without backing from NBC or CNBC or Bloomberg or whatever to share our opinions so there's not there's no king makers sure so I think that's a net positive obviously you and I see the dark side people monetize fear and stupidity you know you have child trafficking and all that other stuff likely caused by social media as well I think social media is a closer call no doubt

13:44I don't you know and again advertising and it's just a nice I don't know I think social media is going to be a net positive but it's close it's not a slam dunk like the internet. I think it's a I think personally it's a net negative okay just based on you know everybody so many people have an opinion many of them are based not on fact it's made things more divisive than ever true yeah you get you get into your own little tunnel you you have more kids with anxiety disorders inability to communicate I see it young kids you know I've got eight eight eight years old almost nine down to two and a half right and and I see my friends with their kids and I see that you know the guys in their 20s with the loneliness epidemic and every girl thinking that she's you know an eight deserves a guy who makes seven figures.

14:44It's just all of these it's really warped reality okay I think so I think it's a net negative I personally the way that I see AI and this is you know a lot of people would say well you know there's only 17 million jobs in tech those aren't the jobs they're coming for you dummies yeah they're not coming from yeah they're and here's the thing you're going to lose plenty of those jobs plenty of them right but you're going to lose largely you're going to lose very large swaths of companies and departments HR largely going to be bye bye you know there's going to be a little bit but not a whole lot they're just isn't going to be a whole lot and and then just as you go through it the problem the AI the problem that AI solves is it takes a lot of the lower tier jobs away so I'll give you two examples one McDonald's or Wendy's fill in the blank yeah instead of 13 to 15 people on a shift year down to two or three people on a shift number one now customer satisfaction through the roof because I've yet to go to a Wendy's that had AI they got my order wrong.

15:59Every freaking time is right and that's pretty awesome but the problem is is that who those people eliminating they're eliminating the $20 an hour employee right that is a renter through true so I look at that and I go okay what are the what are the threats to my business the threats to my business are AI because too many people get replaced with this on a lower level and they're typically the renters number one number two is then you look at you know organizations when it comes to AI essentially being able to replace them again it's low dollar you know high effort low dollar low paying jobs you know we would do we had a massive health system that used our product they doubled their revenue and they needed 200 fewer workers. Yeah now so you so you're definitely on AI is going you and you've been here for the whole time we're just kind of summarizing you think AI is going to take unemployment rate higher.

17:00That's my only basis truthfully that's my only theory and basis for why I still believe unemployment will continue to get worse for years. Yeah and that's that's the only basis because I saw the work that I was doing and I didn't enjoy it. I in the very beginning I loved it because I was like hey this is awesome we're saving these companies a ton of money. The problem is is that when everybody finally when it gets that general adoption you and I were with early adopters that's something that's technically known right early adopters. Yep and they were bleeding edge they knew that they were going to get cuts they know things were going to suck sometimes they knew things would break they knew that they would have massive cost overruns in some cases but we worked with early adopters and that was through basically through the through the teens we worked through those early adopters well now you're getting more general adoption. Right and when you start to hit that wave of general adoption it's what's it going to take it's going to take the everyday person. Yeah you know again I think that is your belief certainly is in the masses I think most people are where you are.

18:08I I'm going to come down on the other side. I don't think most people know that. Well I think I think most people say AI is bad unemployment go up I think they're that simple right they don't have the practical experience you have the real life. But I think most people I mean again anthropic CEO famously said 50% of you are going to lose your job. I mean that's what you say that enough time people are going to believe you and they're going to again kill the data center right. That is right. See I completely disagree I do believe there will be entire job sectors that are completely changed forever and not going back like customer service. Being one of them. But I still think when we zoom out 20 years AI will have created more jobs than it's removed. And again I say that is somebody who has studied every technical revolution back to the you know horse and carriage. I don't see why AI would suddenly be different I mean the internet was supposed to cause jobs to disappear it certainly didn't. Right true but I think that where a lot of those things are different you know it's it's um so play for me the case of how.

19:13Uh getting rid of 8000 HR people. Sure. With AI. Play for me the case where those 8000 jobs do what else what are they doing. Well again it's not about the HR jobs against some some jobs some things will be fundamentally changed forever and HR may be one of those. Sure again when you look at the total or zoom out 8000 people lost their jobs what might happen again I think there's like let's talk about software development. Sure. Software development or software developers engineers they were supposed to be the first jobs hit they were the most expensive. Right they're very expensive 200 K 300 K 500 K is not uncommon for a solid you know advanced software engineer. And what we've seen just in the last 30 days is there are more engineer openings today than there has ever been. Uh huh right because again what's happening is people are realizing they can do more with AI and oh by the way here's the kicker their competitors are. Yeah I think that's the race though I think where it is right now is where all those startups are in that race really to to they gotta be the first and they gotta get through the first and that just means that's just getting a plane to cruising altitude.

20:23So I think what they're doing is I think they're absolutely mortgaging there are a bunch of companies that are going to go bankrupt because they're AI plan sucked. And token maxing of stupid. Yeah like here's what's going to end up happening you're going to have all of those engineers tomorrow not have a job and will they be worth anything. 5 to 10% of them well the other 90% won't be the other 90% are still going to be the angry developer that doesn't want to talk to customers and. But frankly is like what i've been doing this for years yet great dude you are now you know working the night shift in McDonald's. Like and I think that's going to be the transition because I don't really i'm not really focused and concerned on the the white color jobs even though do you think we're going to have data analysts in the next 5 years Mike. Oh for sure but they will not be called data analyst will be called prompt engineers or. Right that's gonna be a lot fewer people it's going to be a lot fewer people. No I see I don't know i'm gonna be lifting with analyzing is is crunching through the numbers in the data. And there can be a lot less people playing with spreadsheets absolutely right but there'll be more people making decisions but that's the.

21:30Go to markets and all of that stuff AI is going to eliminate inefficiencies in a lot of areas that keep industries propped up the federal government. No federal government. I literally had to come eating with somebody and they were like well yeah this system didn't work I said so what do you I create another system and then we were like yeah but we don't. Exactly i've been in those meetings yeah and we needed to do another one this we created another system and I was like well but then we couldn't get the permissions around this then we created another system. So their entire life is band-aid and patching around things that they don't have access to. So and so I said to them I said all due respect that's the exact opposite thing I want to have happened in my business. I want everything pointing to the system of truth and only things being kept in that system of truth. I don't want anything else. I don't want anything that's not fully integrated where you can see the entire life history of the decision. Right we'll get decisions wrong but the idea is we want to see where we got them wrong.

22:32This is where we went wrong and then use that to make better future decisions. I just think that the part of the economy that's the most vulnerable right the part of the economy that's the most vulnerable is going to be the lower dollar lower tier. So I don't want to I don't want to leave the witness so again where you are at in this conversation it sounds like you are a firm believer that you be eyes coming. Yes I do yeah so universal basic income if you don't know what you be eyes folks. And I'm not for it. I don't know but it'll be it'll be frankly the answer to the Wendy's you know operator who doesn't have any job anymore. And there you go and that's why I started with housing better learn the rules now. Government housing is going to be a much larger part of any economy. Well it depends which means by government housing. Government paid housing yes. Housing housing choice vouchers. Yes yes yes. But not a government housing like you know no no no because and the thing is is like don't but here's the thing you know how many years out right I've seen the robots I've seen the sheet rock robots.

23:36Yeah I've seen those things I think yeah yeah exactly like I think in the next 10 years I think those things are pretty awesome. And here's the thing when those work like it will have to stop for an hour or two hours to take a charge or to you know get a software update at night or something like that. But that still means here's the here's the efficiency. I no longer have to depend on guys working eight hours a day I can now depend on a robot working 20 hours a day. I'm getting two and a half times as much done and here's the crazy thing those robots. You know my one of the mutters and tapers I work with which is she rock one day guys they went over a hundred grand a year. I will buy that damn robot. Yeah I want the damn robot because I can get the same job done two and a half times faster where if I'm trying to get something to market I need fast yeah no scheduling issues and no holiday. No holidays no hitching no complaining no drunk drugs. Yeah but here's the thing is that so we would agree that that's probably going to take out.

24:40An industry and reduce it greatly right now there will be guys will jump in and do repair but what's going to be the ratio there. One guy to thirty robots one guy to a hundred robots one guy to two hundred robots what's going to be the ratio and that's where that's where the apple cart gets upset is that it's not AI is not a hundred percent job loss. AI is in reshifting the economy and in reshifting parts of different verticals that's going to be what makes the biggest change. So you be is ten years out. I wish I knew you know I think it depends on how not not tomorrow not next. No no no no not tomorrow not tomorrow but you know you look at a lot of these programs and you know. Does everyone does anyone know that housing choice vouchers in section eight under Biden grew twenty percent. Well here's the problem with those vouchers is at least in my market everybody's market's different I think I have a two and a half year waiting list.

25:45Yeah that's the problem you don't it doesn't matter that you're by twenty percent five year waiting list yeah it doesn't they could double. There's not enough supply. But but here's but here's but here's the problem that we end up getting right which is they eventually fix that problem the government then funds that problem right well this is what I'm saying this is where you buy comes in yeah yeah because they look at it and they go okay well what's the biggest thing that we need to solve for people well it's living somewhere. Well we as a government we don't do well building multi-family properties right we've proven that they turn into projects they turn into high primaries they time in California rail for just an example of government. Yes see Philly Philly housing Boston housing like they it's not good it's not good and so they don't do big projects well right and that's where the projects that's where then the partnership comes in worth working with landlords. The issue is that then they set the rate and when they are a tenth of the economy right when they're a tenth of the economy it's not that big of a deal when they're a third or they get to half oh yeah yeah then they start making those rules right so that's where you know so again my concern is not that AI makes all jobs disappear AI makes the most vulnerable jobs largely disappear.

27:04I think there's plenty of light collar jobs that disappear like I said when you have teams right you have data scientists. Sure there's a lot of times what they like to call themselves. Oh yeah I remember that right that was the job title for a lot. Go on freaking hell right you're just like no you don't understand what data scientists did you get your degree in data science? No so shut up then. Who's in the other? I'm a sales scientist like give me a freaking break you know whatever yeah and there are true data scientists out there but they're much smaller than you. Oh yeah there's people in the same data science. Yeah same thing with CMIOs chief medical information officer very often that's somebody that not only practices as a doctor but also is the liaison to the chief information off chief information officer for hospitals. And that role didn't exist 10 years ago or 12 years ago and then in the first five years there were 70 or 80 because they were the biggest organizations and now a ton of organizations have CMIOs because they have a lead doctor that basically talks to information technology and says this is what are people because this is what we have to attract the doctors if you want to have your if you're have want to have your hospital make the margin that needs to be because you need operating room's fall and you need surgery is being done.

28:17So I don't think it's an entire loss of those jobs but you look at data analysts I think data analysts as a as a role is going to be down 90% in the next 10 years. Because you will get all of the efficiencies in AI and I've seen it you know I can literally somebody goes out there and says I I didn't experiment I hired somebody off a five or that was a research expert. And I said I want you to not use AI I need 100% created on your part so no AI you got us do your searches and then follow up on Lee etc. He's like okay and they said I'll pay them a thousand bucks to do on one topic. In five minutes I had a much better description from AI than he did in a thousand dollar effort. Sure. That's going to be everything that's going to be everything and so where you have these like little pieces of expertise. Now the key will be air gap like can it jump into the physical world well that's what the AI robots are and there's a lot of companies are coming out with these robots and they will do tasks but what does it it's funny you it's funny you bring that up because I saw just the other day there was this little duck.

29:31That's some Chinese firm that has built it's you know it's supposed to be a kids toy. Yeah but it has AI in it. And like you're supposed to hook it up to your you know Wi-Fi at your house I'm like I'm not bringing that shit in my house. You get it. It's really funny so I I had done I done research on iRobot iRobot they're a Massachusetts company. Okay. They had and then there was Roomba which was the vacuum. Yeah. Yeah. Amazon turns that into combining basically combining the two and now the way that they actually when they when you try to get software updates and such. It actually creates a floor plan for your house so you have a floor plan for your house of how it goes around furniture right now your entire house is mapped out based on your Roomba. It doesn't take that long to create that map so for me guess what we tossed we tossed the Roomba I said I can roll a vacuum i'm a well yeah but this is but this is where I think that you'll just see so will.

30:41Will things get significantly better for in some ways for the population absolutely. Okay. However how many kids today can do basic math in their head without whipping out their phone and doing a calculator. This is that on steroids. So you are in the basically AI might be net negative. That's where you're coming down I think so well I think I mean i've not heard anybody and I would love to hear it in the comments if somebody's heard of somebody that explains out. How we then don't live with long term high end unemployment and you're talking double digits at this point this is what i'm thinking i'm now i don't think i don't think the collapse of. Society in that in that in that AI kills us all I don't think that but I do think that it shifts it enough where look it overseas you look at you know the the invasion of the invasion of Spain from Morocco.

31:52You know you look at it across the country and it's all people in their 20s and 30s that don't have a job. That want a job there are no jobs and it's because they they're socialist societies are collapsing because of corruption and a lack of a lack of understanding of fiscal responsibility. You see other countries you know really turning the corner when they you know I think it was a was it Venezuela. Venezuela is doing very well now Argentina I think was Argentina was another one the problem that I think we have again the problem that I think we have long term is that I don't think that AI. Creates nearly as many jobs as it takes away I think it's going to be a probably a one to five or one to six ratio. Wow it could be that bad and it's going to and where it's different is it's not only taking out the low end it's going to take plenty of the mid mid tier. Sure. Like how many people like you don't understand I got into it like imagine think about what the mortgage approval process is.

33:00And tell me why that's not a seven second AI AI. AI algorithm tell me why it's not it's not. Yeah. And and rocket mortgage you know I use them I like to look at the guys that are like winning based on tech. Rocket mortgage is awesome their platform is freaking awesome the problem with it is that when you have a problem you get somebody on the phone. And they literally can barely put a sentence together they are not smart. And they don't know what really what they're doing the only thing they know how to do is I see that we're still missing this document that's all they are right. The issue is is that is that job going to be needed when AI becomes more advanced it's not going to be needed it's going to literally send an alert to the customer and say. Here's what's missing out of your profile please upload it otherwise we cannot make a decision right. It's going to make things a lot faster. All right all right folks we're talking AI here again we started with these crazy folks that are in traffic and open AI saying we're going to kill us in 10 years do you believe that you think that's crazy.

34:04Are you with Matt you think AI is a net negative do you also see double digit employee unemployed and you be I coming because of AI. Let us know in the comments below I expect this comment section to get spicy Matt where can they find you. Lumberjack landlord you can find me on Thursday nights 9 p.m. Eastern time and to be clear I don't want you be I don't want it you just think it's coming. I just sadly think it's going to be coming just the way it goes. Well I gotta tell you if this goes the way you kind of proclaim it's the only answer. Correct. Yeah. Whether you like it or not it's the only answer. Well so you know we look at it with my sister-in-law spent a lot of time over in Spain and people in their 20s it is high double digit like it's like 18 17. Yeah it's yeah crazy percentage of unemployment that means one in five. Yeah. It's crazy. Aver body men. That's how wars start when you get enough able body men in their 20s not doing anything that's not good.

35:07Especially when somebody maybe has a silver tongue and they start making promises see New York. I don't know that's not going to work out very well I don't think New York is not going to work out very well. And so sadly now you're hearing a lot of these things and a lot of people you know that voted for him and feel pumped up about that. The problem will lie in what that creates as a market there afterwards and it's not going to be good. No. All right buddy I appreciate your time. Have a great week. Thank you so much. Anytime pal talk soon.