Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul - Preview & Prediction - 2026 US Open

0:00Hey guys and welcome back to the channel. We have Alexander Bubliak versus Tommy Paul for the third round matchup at the US Open. I'm really looking forward to getting stuck into this one because these are two players very, very different styles. And Tommy Paul does actually lead the head to head 3-1, but the most recent match, which was at last year's US Open, Alexander Bubliak got the win in five thrilling sets. So does Tommy Paul have some scar tissue from that matchup? That remains to be seen, but I have to say, it's an interesting one. And actually, I think he was at the same, it wasn't the third round, I'm pretty sure. It says round of 32, so I'm pretty sure that's third round. And I mean, it would be poetic, but also heartbreaking for Tommy, the Bubliak beat in this one. They're seated relatively similarly, Paul's 20 and Bubliak's 15. As I mentioned, Tommy does lead the head to head.

1:00They've played only twice on outdoor hard. That was once in Miami last year, Paul won in three sets very closely, by the way, 67, 75, 64, and then of course, Bubliak won at the US Open in five sets. So, question is, how is this one going to play out? Well, Tommy Paul has been playing pretty solid. Bubliak started off not playing incredibly well, I guess a pretty tougher potent, I guess awkward opponents J.J. Wolf. Then came up against another very tougher potent, an awkward opponent in Manorino, and one that won very convincingly, 636-161. One is first match against Wolfen 4. Tommy Paul, on the other hand, beat Coleman Wong in four sets, coming from a set down, and then beat Prismich in four sets. Before we do get into the detail of this, please do hit that like button if you enjoy this video. Also, leave in the comments section below. You think it's going to be a win or why? I always wanted to hear your guys' thoughts on this, because it's just so intriguing to hear, especially for a match up that on paper, I think is very close like this.

2:01Subscribe if you're new, lots of US Open content coming, and if you're listening on a podcast platform, please leave a rating on review. Okay, let's break this down then, because I just want to talk about this. So, Bubliak, let's talk about him. The way he's going to hurt Tommy Paul is a few ways, right? He has to play on the front foot. He's got a huge serve, he's got incredible hands, great drop shot, and of both wings, he can hit winners, he can hit with power and pace. I would say the forehand is quite spinny, backhand's quite flat. He can flat down the forehand as well. He is prone to making mistakes on both wings, because he tries to play quite aggressive tennis. The issue that he's going to have, of course, is that he's going to once come forward. Now, if he's serving huge, coming forward is not necessarily too much of an issue, but in those instances, and Tommy Paul is arguably top five athletes on tour, in those instances where Tommy Paul pits a neutralizing return, or he's able to get into the rally,

3:01and maybe Bubliak's approach choice is not quite good enough, or if Bubliak's variety doesn't quite the matter drop shot, for example, Tommy Paul making pay. He'll get to those balls, he'll pass him, he'll make it awkward, because he's an incredible athlete, and he's able to pass off both wings pretty comfortably. He's a very good defending, and I think a lot of this match is going to be Bubliak, being the aggressor, and Tommy Paul trying to neutralise the feeling of trying to transition from defense to attack. The one positive that Tommy Paul has in his game is that he is not a bad serve of himself. He's been hitting around, well, both matches, nine aces, he's been hitting a 78% first, so points, one, 82% of first, so points, one. So it's been pretty high, and that's because his first serve, he can hit past 1-30 mile par, Mark, he can hit big, he can hit the kicker out wide as well, he has that variety, he hit the slider out wide from the juice side, and he is trying to be very aggressive off the forehand or backhand, off that plus one, trying to know it's important that he tries to go up front foot,

4:03and then trying to dictate in the rallies. If he does that against Bubliak, and has him on the back foot a lot of the time, Bubliak is not going to have much success, he's not a particularly good defender. Yes, he can slice him, dice him, he has a variety of the backhand slice, and the forehand slice, and I get that, but that only really works when he is in control, or at least at a minimum in neutral in a point, because when he does it off the back foot, it's not particularly effective, he's not someone who's going to be able to stretch, and hit a very good defensive forehand slice, that's not really his game, and it's pretty awkward for him, especially being whatever, six foot six, and get down low like that, he is not going to do that, he's going to try and be aggressive, he needs to be aggressive, he needs to be on the front foot, and this is going to be a real tug of war, I think, in this one. The other issue is, Bubliak is not particularly good returner, so there are going to be games that Timepool gets through, which are going to be pretty quick, but occasionally he will have those games where he'll just click, and he needs to then be really clinical in those games, and try and capitalize on the opportunities he gets on Tommy's serve, Tommy needs to be switched on and try not to get

5:05lulled into a full sense of security in his service games as well, and for Sasha, I think, Alexander Bubliak, I think it's really imperative that he is serving well, and I think playing with variety, and that might mean serving volley, it might be serve full hand plus one, it might be serve drop shot, it might be serve full hand, drop shot, it might be serve, I mean, I don't think he's necessarily going to go with a serve at a backhand slice or full hand slice, but I think he needs to keep Tommy guessing, because if you play with a lot of rhythm, and it is quite predictable, Tommy has the ability to get into a rhythm where his ball striking just goes up a notch, and that's exactly what Bubliak doesn't want. In terms of a prediction, it's really tough. I'm going to be honest, but I think Sasha might do it again, and I'm going to go, Alexander Bubliak in four sets, I think it's going to be a big boy performance from him, let me know in the comments section below what you think and why. Thanks very much, good bye, stay six more, we'll see you next video.