America’s Economic Divide, Global Energy Crisis, AI Job Losses, Bitcoin’s Future

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Are we going to avoid a recession?

Are you able to move fast enough?

We have a recession if you're poor.

We don't have a recession if you're part of a big infrastructure build.

If you're part of the tech world, there's parts of the economy.

You're in great.

I said the Biden economy and the Trump economy have the same problem.

It's a k-shape recovery.

It's good for the people that are in the knowledge business,

in the tech business and the infrastructure.

Now power business and it's harder and harder for everyday citizens.

Welcome to all things markets.

I am Anthony Scaramucci.

And I am Mike Novigratz.

Michael Novigratz.

Nothing going on in the world as you and I both know.

Well, not really.

Okay, the world is unwinding as we're speaking.

So let's go right away to oil.

Everybody listening in knows that the United States has been in a air war effectively

over the last 11 or 12 days.

We did go from a homani to a homani and one Scaramucci,

Mike Novigratz.

So that's what you call regime change and less than a Scaramucci.

But crude went to 120.

It's now backed off to 90.

84.

84.

Okay, 84 now.

Okay, looking at it, you're right.

Dow is down 900 points on a Monday finished up.

Prices look good today up again.

Where are we, Mike?

You know, listen, this is all geopolitical.

It's all trying to figure out when does Trump talk about, right?

Listen, we went in, I think for righteous reasons, right?

I like you had a shit regime that was murdering their own people.

And this is my interpretation.

I think Donald Trump said I'd already drawn a red line

if they were going to murder their own people and they did.

And I'm going to do something about it.

I'm going to be a hero.

We had the Israelis who have always been wanted to take out,

you know, the Iran, the Iran hierarchy.

And so those two things lined up,

we restocked up the fear of nukes

that we had actually obliterated six months earlier.

And we've changed our reason to be in Iran about four or five times.

The current reasoning is we want to debilitate

the regime from being able to show power in the world,

show nuclear power, show any kind of power.

Terrorism power, financial power.

And so it's kind of just to devastate the regime.

And maybe hoping regime shame comes from that.

But it's no longer a regime change.

Even though Trump did at one point say it was.

And so the market is saying, well, if that's the high bar,

we're pretty damn close to it.

And all Trump has to do is declare victory

and say we've debilitated the regime

and walk away and the straits open back up.

And yeah, well, that's what I want to talk about, though.

So how do you get the straight opened up?

It seems to be generally closed.

Very few tankers are going through there.

They've attacked one of our tankers.

How do you get the straight to open up?

You know, talk about the strength of the U.S.

dollar, you and I talk about all the time,

dollar debatement, but in a world like this,

dollars to tallest of the shortest people in the room, right?

See how clever I was?

I didn't use the word midget, right?

Because we're in a woke society.

See that?

What's interesting is day one of a crisis,

markets start adjusting.

And day two, it's always a correlated risk on wind,

which means people sell the shit they're in.

They stop at what they're short.

They sell what they're long.

And so things like Yerai Boer,

you know, German short-term interest rate

futures sold off 60 basis points,

pricing at a full 50 basis point hike,

what we had thought they were going to be cutting rates.

That's because lots of the big European macro fronts

had huge positions at it.

People were short oil.

You can panic that, oh my God, if the the the straights

are closed for 10 days,

they've got to cut off

production in places like Saudi,

because they have nowhere to store it.

And it takes a long time to get production back on.

And you know, that's a 20% of the world's oil

flows through the straight.

And prices are set on the margin,

which means you'll pay anything for the last barrel.

And so prices skyrocket up.

Then they collapse because

everyone who needed to stop out or get along not long.

And I think oil now is going to trade between

70, 75 on the low side and 105 on the high side.

And it's going to jump back and forth with rumors

before it collapses again back to 60.

And so it's not nearly as scary anymore being short oil

into into extensions because you already had the blowoff top.

Just like we had a blowoff top in silver,

we're not getting back to that silver price.

Like those things happen once,

what everyone gets squeezed.

I want to roleplay with you because I like roleplaying in life

and you're Kevin Worsh.

And I am your econometric analyst.

And you've already gotten approved.

Tom Tellus has waved you through Kevin Worsh.

You're now the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

And I'm sitting here with you.

I'm saying, hmm.

Flation is ticking up.

slower growth than expected.

92,000 jobs lost.

But gas prices.

I'm not ready to say Anthony.

This is stagg.

Like it's not really stagflation.

The oil input us is a one off.

It will come and go.

Right.

Up down.

You know, so you're going to.

I mean, how much are you cutting rates,

Jeff?

How much are you cutting rates?

I'm starting with a 25 and I'm going to watch them.

I'm going to get 75 done by the end of the year.

Are you going to single that to the market?

It depends if the market allows me to.

Which I mean by that is,

I'm going to look at whatever that PPI CPI trend is.

You know what the like the last jobs number was just horrific,

horrific, horrific.

And so one more bad jobs number.

I'm maybe even cutting 50.

Like worse things rate should be a lot lower.

Right.

He's made that clear to people he's spoken to before he got.

That's not because Trump, like give him credit.

It's convenient because Trump wants some lower,

but it's not because of Trump.

And I think he will signal that quickly,

especially if we get another reach out.

Mr. Chairman, are we going to avoid a recession?

Are you be able to move fast enough?

We got to be careful with words like recession,

because we have a recession if you're poor.

Right?

We just do.

We don't have a recession if you're part of the big infrastructure build.

If you're part of the tech world.

You know, and so these companies are making so much money.

I was out with a spectacularly bright tech investor yesterday.

He was like, damn it.

Anthropic is going to get to 100 billion or revenue.

100 billion.

He was a company that didn't exist three years ago.

I mean, that's the most breathtaking prediction.

I'd heard a long time.

This guy was telling me he thought

2027.

NVIDIA is trading at 10 times earnings.

Like, that's how much profits being built into these things.

So there's parts of the economy doing great.

This is like I said, the Biden economy and the Trump economy had the same problem.

It's a k-shape recovery.

It's good for the people that are in the knowledge business,

you know, in the tech business and the infrastructure.

Now power business.

And it's harder and harder for everyday citizens.

Now your Mike Novogratz again.

Okay, you've been pretty vocal because I watched your interviews.

Okay, away from this network.

You've been pretty vocal about fiscal recklessness.

You talk about your time working in Washington and had a benchmark things.

I feel like your own pal has done an okay job.

You disagree with that or you?

I think pal gets a star.

Okay.

All right.

And so where do you think the dollar will be then

if we're going to be jamming rates down 75 basis points by year end?

I think Euro makes it back to 130 or what it won 16 now

as a barometer.

I think dollar, Brazil and dollar, Mexico had lower, right?

We've all everyone had to get out of those trades

because shit when the world blows up,

you want to just put everything in the dollar for a second.

But I think the moment the world's unblown up,

people start selling dollars again.

All right, there's some movement away from the U.S.

I mean, listen, you might like what Donald Trump has done

in Venezuela.

We should talk about that in a sec.

And in Iran, from a geopolitical perspective,

but the way we've done it is not endearing ourselves

to a lot of people around the world.

No question.

And there's already been a, this is a different America.

It's a bully.

It's a power winds.

It's not the America that came up with the Marshall Plan.

Right.

It's not the America that crafted the economic and political

infrastructure that ruled the world for the last 35 years.

And so I just think that's sell the dollar as people rebalance.

Oh, I mean, listen, I mean, remember,

you know, those guys were not idealist, Michael.

They were strategists.

They knew that by setting the world up like that

and creating a rules-based order,

was actually going to help America,

because it would allow America,

despite its power and military strength,

have natural alliances.

We're now busting that,

and we're creating all these unnatural things.

But go to Venezuela for a second,

because you met recently.

That's a global prize winner.

Which, you know, famously gave her Nobel Prize to

President Trump.

And I have to say, you know,

she stayed at my house for two hours.

She was unbelievably engaging.

She answered, I ask a lot of weird questions and hard questions.

I start giving you a weird question.

How are you born rich middle class or poor?

She has more rich.

Okay.

Nice.

You still married.

No, she's divorced.

Or do your kids live outside of the country?

Nice.

But the story of her

last two years,

in hiding,

and then getting on a boat,

breaking her back to try to get to the Nobel ceremony,

missing it by a couple days,

is this herring story?

And I was like, wow,

that was, oh, 80 days ago.

You know, 80 days ago,

she's literally eight hours at sea,

breaks her back,

getting to some rescue boat

to leave Venezuela.

She gave Donald Trump that Nobel prize,

not because he wanted it,

I mean, partly,

but because she said,

for years,

we've been under this dictatorship in Venice,

whether this club of literacy,

this criminal organization,

and everyone gave lip service to help,

because no one helped us.

And the way she saw is the first person that helped them.

And so I think about that in this context.

She had, like,

what would be the equivalent of the ad of the diaspora,

80% approval.

Right? She is a legend in Venezuela.

We've decided,

right or wrong,

we're going to keep

the old vice president,

who is very dislike,

both domestically

and certainly by the diaspora,

in charge,

just to keep stability for a while.

In my argument to the Trump administration,

is Iran's going to be hard.

You guys want to win.

Right now people think,

if you're a skeptic,

oh,

they took Venezuela for the oil,

and Trump took the money and sent it to Qatar,

and it's just more corruption.

I'm telling you if they had announced elections,

six months from now,

nine months from now,

12 months from now,

free and fair elections that we will monitor.

Trump will turn Venezuela into this glorious victory,

because people will say,

damn, we did it for the right reason.

America will be proud of what we did.

Venezuela's will love us.

I literally think the Trump administration

has this amazing opportunity

to clear elections for nine months forward.

And then the story goes,

my god,

we did go in and do something really wonderful

for this part of the world.

So much money will flow into the capital,

into Venezuela.

I got some money already invested.

They're all put a lot more in

if I think there's rule of law.

And so,

that transition will take the cynics and optimists.

And he's going to need that

because Iran is not going to be easy to fix, right?

We got a guy that's half alive

that is, you know,

just murdered his father and his wife

and half his family.

So I don't think he's going to be a guy in for regime change.

We don't know,

you know, when Israel goes in and bombs their,

bombs their oil tanks

that creates smoke,

galore, and then black rain

and all of fricking Taran is covered in greasy oil,

does not endear yourself to the people.

Like we had started saying,

we're going to take out the bad guys

and leave infrastructure alone

and somehow we lost our patience.

And so,

I think they're going to need some PR help

and I think Venezuela is a great way to get it.

And listen, like I said,

I actually kind of thought

regime change is a great,

is a great goal,

even though it's hard to pull off in Iran.

And you know,

we'll see, we'll see,

the juries out,

I do think they're going to end,

they're going to end this war in the next 10 days

because they have to.

The allies in,

you know,

we were talking to some senior people in Abu Dhabi,

they've had it.

They've like, dude,

like you got five days left.

And there's been promises made back and forth,

at least I'm told, you know.

Okay, but Michael,

let's,

so in five days,

if it doesn't end,

then what do the people

in the Emirates

or other allies in the region do?

What would their recourse be?

The amount of trust they have

for this administration,

which was starting at 100,

right?

Right.

They were big backers of Donald Trump.

Abu Dhabi was,

Qatar was,

Saudi was,

you know,

they have leverage

because they've invested,

they promised to invest all this money.

They're in all these deals,

uh,

and so,

I don't think you want to piss off your banker.

That's like rule, rule 101.

Uh, let me say this to you,

they're dying to ask you this question

for the whole week.

And I want to,

I want to frame it

in the following way.

The markets have a co-dependent relationship

with Donald Trump.

They're like a boyfriend and girlfriend.

They're like,

John,

Kennedy Jr.

and Carolyn Bassett

arguing

in the park,

right?

And you know exactly what I'm talking about.

They watch each other,

the market watches Trump,

Trump watches the market.

And so, you really saying

the geopolitical outcome of this war

is going to be related to Trump

market washing and pressure

from market participants?

I think the geopolit,

yes,

I do.

I think the geopolitical outcome

this war

is going to be how much pain Trump can take

before he declares victory.

He can declare victory tomorrow.

And so, it's a short fuse,

right?

And the,

and the straight reopens.

Listen,

we've done the insurance thing.

That's coming in a week.

We've got

France's navy and our navy say,

well, that's short things.

And so,

like,

that's all meant

to calm things down and get the oil price low.

But the only way it really flows

is you have hostilities.

Okay, so Michael,

but just so I'm clear,

you and I are going to do a show next week.

I think the war will be over.

And the war will be over.

Okay, so where is the

probably over?

Okay, so where is the dollar

when Trump declares

that the regime has

unconditionally surrendered to him,

which is his very vague now elastic

definition of unconditionally.

He's not FDR channeling the Japanese

surrender.

So they unconditionally surrendered

to him.

In the meantime,

the regime is still intact.

Where is the dollar?

Where's oil?

Oil is back at 70, 75,

70, 75 because it'll work on its way to 60.

And the dollar is much weaker.

You know,

euros probably 119

headed to 130.

Stocks are higher.

Rates ironically are higher.

Like rates have had the weirdest

reaction because everyone say,

oh, this is inflationary.

And therefore, let's price in

less rate cuts or even rate hikes.

I just think it's crazy.

Oil impulsive is never inflationary.

It's short-term spike.

It's deflationary.

It slows the economy down.

And so, I don't know.

I think between this will slow us down some.

If there's already, right?

And so you're going to slow the economy down some.

You've got AI.

I mean, what do you think about AI?

It's a deflation machine.

I had somebody say to me today

that they're selling their house.

You're on Long Island.

And I said, why are you selling your house on Long Island?

You love Long Island.

Says, oh, no, there's going to be such massive

of job losses in the next five years

that my house is going to implode in value.

Are they exaggerating that?

Is that too apocalyptic for you?

Or is that something that you think

should be a legitimate concern?

I don't think people should be worried about their Long Island house.

Well, you know, the apocalyptic people are out there saying,

AI is taking every middle class, upper middle class,

white collar job.

I don't think it's going to happen as fast as everyone else thinks it is

because companies don't operate that fast.

I also think like we're looking at all these guys

getting fired from the Amazon's

and there's a big rumor that Metta's going to have a huge axe.

They're not going to try to reapply to other companies.

They're going to start their own companies.

You can now start a company

with a couple of people in Fricking Cloud Code.

And we're going to see all kinds of new businesses pop up

in all kinds of innovation.

I talked to a guy yesterday

who has it like my real tech savvy guy.

He talked to the guy and relayed the conversation to be clear

who has a fast food business in multiple states,

a pretty big one.

And he said, you know what?

I'm almost ready to fire my entire

corporate staff because I spent all weekend with this Cloud Code.

And I'm now because if you have good data,

you need data in the right place.

But he said he's got, you know,

look at its seasonal patterns of the different things

on the menu and the different states.

And like he put all the cues that

in Cloud did it in four hours.

And it would have taken three weeks,

a lots of calls and guys on vacation

and getting the data and spreadsheets.

And he was like, I don't need these analysts.

I don't need the safer.

So you are going to fire people.

There was one example.

You like Cloud better than Chad GBT?

You know, I'm not smart enough to know.

It feels like everyone I speak to is using Cloud.

And it feels like it's actually the Department of Defense.

They're still using it for six more months.

You think, so where do you think that's going to go, Michael?

You think they're going to lose the lawsuit?

Yeah.

I think, I think Cloud will

win out in this one.

And they listen, they might not do the Department of Defense stuff

after six months, but they're not going to be put on the bad, bad guy list.

Li-chain risk.

They're going to be designated US company,

designated supply chain risk.

Yeah.

That seemed to take about what the Silicon Valley people would say

to Trump on that.

I mean, it's ridiculous.

So before we go to crypto, because I want to talk about crypto,

I want to talk about China, Russia,

and the Gulf states

that are settling more trade outside the dollar system.

Okay.

There's a tiny bit of de-dollarization going on.

Tiny bit.

Okay.

More so than ever before.

Is that going to continue?

Is that something we can stop if you're the Federal Reserve Chairman?

And are you worried about it?

Trump is trying to stop it by edict, right?

I don't think, I don't think it's going to be big enough

in the short run that it makes a geopolitical issue.

And I don't think he can stop it.

You know, like, listen, people are going to do with their money,

what they want to do with them.

They can get around, you know, Trump's view was,

well, if they do that, we're not going to trade with them.

Like, we'll take our toys and go home.

Like, well, you can't take all your toys home and come to America.

We have a completely interlinked, you can see it with oil,

geopolitical economy.

And so like, we all got to learn to play together.

We can change the rules a little bit.

We can enforce the rules.

But you just can't pick up your toys at this point and go home.

Again, we have a $27 trillion or $25 trillion supply chain investment in China.

Like, you know, there's no world in the next 30 years where China and the US

are not partners of some sort.

Michael, you still think the clarity I could get past?

I do.

I do.

I mean, unfortunately, there's all this other stuff that happens,

creates energy elsewhere and less focus on it.

The government's partially closed.

The president says he's not signing anything

until the state-back tickets pass.

All this sort of stuff.

The SAVAC will not get passed, certainly in the way it's written.

The crazy part is the SAVAC probably could have got passed

if it was written rationally.

You know, if you brought in the definition of what an ID was,

if you gave people a two-year pathway to get those IDs.

But like, I don't have a real ID.

I went to the White House.

I pulled out my driver's license.

I was like, oh, shit.

I usually carry my passport.

I've forgotten it.

So I couldn't get in the White House.

I had to come across the street and meet me.

I was like, it's a New York State driver's license.

Google me.

That didn't go over well.

I'm like, what do you think?

Right.

No, you need a real ID everywhere.

Yeah.

All right.

So, you know how many people have real IDs?

Not that many.

I don't.

I got one because I'm an avid traveler.

I'm guessing it's less than 50%.

Yeah, not that many.

I just told my wife, you can't pass a law that goes into effect

that half the country doesn't even have the ID to get it done.

Yeah.

100%.

Porty written law.

Michael Michael.

You and I have a mutual friend, a gentleman by the name of Michael

Sailor.

Okay.

Who is locked and loaded?

He's on fire again.

He's bonfire again.

And so let's talk about what he's doing.

Okay.

He has this security called S-T-R-C.

Selling 100 million of this at a clip.

He's on track to purchase another 15 to 20,000 Bitcoin.

I think he's single-handedly

propping up the market as you tell me otherwise.

He is driving the market.

I take what's interesting about this.

Yeah.

Micro-strategy versus...

And there's lots of ways to figure out what it's M-NAV or what it's

what it's fair value versus Bitcoin is.

But it traded below.

And Sailor was smart enough to say,

I can still sell stock even below NAV.

Because for me, what's more important is the Bitcoin price starts going up again,

which will rekindle the excitement around Bitcoin, which will rekindle the excitement around

Micro-Strategy.

And lo and behold, the buyers of crypto in the last three weeks have not been my classic Bitcoin

hedge funds.

They've been retail America.

And retail America either buys an ETF.

You know, I bet are one of the other ETFs or Micro-Strategy.

In Micro-Strategy, on most days, does more volume.

And so they buy Micro-Strategy as their Bitcoin plight.

He sells them the stock and uses it to buy Bitcoin.

And that cycle gets going again.

And as long as Micro-Strategy trades over par versus its M-NAV,

which my calculation, you got to decide how you think about the converts and the

prefers and, you know, is somewhere between 110 and 120.

The worst you can get it is like 101.

He's got room to keep selling stock and selling these perpetuals.

You know, the perpetuals are funny security because it says,

I'm going to pay you an interest rate.

If I don't want to, I don't have to.

And that 10% goes in perpetuity.

That's hence the perpetual.

And so I think people have realized he ain't going bankrupt.

Bitcoin's not going to zero or he's not going to 20,000.

And they take their 10% in a world where, you know, risk-free rate is 3.5.

They like it.

For the short sellers out there, I think it's important for them to know

that in this type of capital design that you're describing,

he's not taking any more debt at the company level.

Because he's selling the equity.

So it's going to be very hard to knock him out of business.

Am I wrong in saying that, Michael?

Yeah, listen, what would not Michael sell out of business?

You know, Satoshi shows back up and sells his whole bag.

You know, there's a electrical magnetic pulse and the whole system break.

Like, it would have to be something so catastrophic

that people just give up on, Bitcoin.

But barring, you know, point one delta,

uh, micro-strategy stock might lose.

It might trade to 70 cents on the dollar versus Bitcoin.

But you're not going to create a forced seller by Michael Seller of all his Bitcoin.

Now, I will go so far to say, I bet you in the next three years,

he doesn't sell a Bitcoin.

And where will Bitcoin be in three years?

64,000 dollar question.

I think this year we're 60 to 80 until we take out 80.

Uh, I'm optimistic that we've traded so well in the last, you know, week and a half.

Um, I do see sellers at 80 or at least people that say they will.

So I don't think we go through there the first time.

But I think in three years, we should be back to new highs and and then you're in price discovery.

Um, in some ways, it has to be if this industry is going to, you know, the industry can't

go sideways for too long, right?

It's built, it's built on this story that brings people into it.

And if you can't create a story that brings people into the system,

the system is going to shrink.

You mentioned Satoshi.

So since you mentioned, let's bring them up.

Uh, I don't know where it is in the calcium markets, but uh,

what are the odds that a Bitcoin or many Bitcoin gets released from that while?

I think zero.

Okay, tell us why.

You know how hard it is to hoddle.

To hold like if you bought Google, I bet you bought a share of Google sometime in the

early 2000s.

And I think you still don't have that share.

I only have one funny story, right?

I bought some Microsoft in a Goldman Sachs account left Goldman Sachs,

forgot that it was in the account and thank God because without it,

in other words, I didn't sell it because I didn't know I had it.

Otherwise, I would have blown it out there in the bomber years, right?

So it's a big lesson to people not to sell quality stuff.

But yeah, but so you think someone who could stay on that that pile of money,

be the rich man or not sell a coin.

Unless they had such unbelievable income from somewhere else that it didn't matter.

But I just think almost somebody, somebody put that stuff together,

ripped up the keys and said, but somebody died.

Okay.

Yeah, I mean, died with the secret.

Yeah.

That secret ain't coming back.

And quite frankly, it's really they can quantumly protect that.

Think about goal.

You think it could be quantumly protected that wallet or it's going to get cracked.

That is beyond my pay grade.

I hear both sides of it.

I think if, listen,

crypto's real challenges as we get close to quantum that the core developers have to agree

on the upgrade of the code.

We saw the big fight between Roger Verne and the rest of Bitcoin,

between Bitcoin core and Bitcoin classic.

You know, I think they'll agree because it's existential.

If they don't, it's over.

And so Occam's razor tells me, of course, they'll agree.

But we'll see.

My bet is they'll agree.

Any parting words?

You're wrapping up.

You get weeks like this once or twice every couple of years.

And you know, you learn a lot.

They're fun to participate in.

There's one lesson that I would give younger investors.

The moment you see what looks like what we call a correlated risk unwind,

when everyone's trying to get out of risk,

your best bet is to go to zero.

Step back, take a deep breath,

and then you're a velociraptor.

Then you're buying the thing that sells off 50 basis points.

When it rallies 20, you're selling it back out.

You're making money.

You're selling crude at 120 and you're buying it 100.

You're so much more free to take advantage of other people's pain if you're not in pain yourself.

And what mistakes everyone makes is like,

well, I'll sell my peripheral stuff, but not my core stuff.

You've got to learn the discipline to say,

we're going through a two-week rewrite tumbler.

And I don't want to be in that tumbler.

And listen, it's hard.

I've talked to some of the best fun managers of the world.

They have some of the worst weeks of their life.

You think about things like Japanese stocks and Korean stocks,

which were darlings that just got eviscerated.

And they got to levels that are problem worth buying.

And so that's the take away.

You've got to be faster than everybody else.

You've got to stay nimble.

You're coming out of this week pretty bullish.

The war is going to end.

Things are going to stabilize.

Oil is going to stabilize.

The people are going to be able to return to their beautiful Dubai condominiums.

No problem.

I tell you what, I think people, the people that left made a mistake.

I'm telling you, I've been going to Abu Dhabi since 1994.

And that's a place that just

worships loyalty.

They admire loyalty.

It's a culture of loyalty.

They're the greatest investors once you have them in

because you're part of their family.

And for the guys that said, oh no, it's a little bit

it bolted, picked up and left,

willing to pay anything to get out.

Weenies.

And I'm telling you, the Emirates are kind of forget who those guys were.

All right, amen.

Well, look at you and I will be back at Abu Dhabi finance week.

And November, I'm not going anywhere.

Either are you.

All right, well, that's a wrap for this week.

We'll see you guys next week.

All good.

All right, brother.

Well, you know, we're got the Anthony Scare Mucci.