American farmers were already struggling, then came the Iran war

America's farmers can't seem to catch a break.

I'm trying to choose between the words bleak and brutal.

Mark Mueller is a fourth-generation farmer from Iowa.

He mainly farms corn and soybeans.

He's also the president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association.

There are problems that have been going on for years.

Now, I will say this.

The current administration has not done many favors.

The previous administration did not do many favors.

And this past year has been especially turbulent.

President Trump's tariffs and other trade policies

have disrupted export markets.

And his immigration crackdown has exacerbated

an already serious labor crisis in agriculture.

And this administration, it's made so far,

empty promises.

Farmers have gotten a lot of lip service,

but we have not seen much more than that.

We get lots of platitudes.

President Trump loves farmers.

He's our best friend.

But until we see some trade deals, some meaningful trade deals

and not just empty frameworks announcing trade deals,

agriculture is going to be on the ropes for some time to come yet.

Now, the war in Iran has caused a spike in fertilizer prices

because half of the world's nitrogen fertilizer exports

come through the straight of our moves.

If the pain persists for farmers,

Mueller says it might bleed into the midterms.

Our farmer is going to turn wholesale against Trump.

I don't know, but I'm going to guess that he'll have

markedly less support of the Republican Party

will have less support than it did at the last election

from the farming community.

I'm hearing people grumble, but not loudly yet.

Consider that some of President Trump's policies

are testing the support of farmers, many of whom voted for him.

From NPR, I'm Scott Detro.

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It's considered this from NPR,

a series of Trump administration policy decisions,

deportations, tariffs, and the Iran War

are ratcheting up the pressure on American farmers.

It's a group that tends to support the president

but persistent challenges may test their patience.

NPR's Danielle Kurtzleben reports on how agriculture

is getting squeezed.

Dave O'Brien is straightforward about how

the Trump administration's policies are affecting farmers.

They're choking us.

We are getting choked out here.

This is not this is not going to end well.

O'Brien has been growing corn and soybeans

for 50 years in Northern Illinois.

He's voted for Republicans and Democrats in the past

but he's frustrated with the GOP and the Trump era.

Since the US bombed Iran, for example,

the closure of the straight of Hormuz

disrupted the flow of nitrogen fertilizer,

sending the price spiraling upward.

And that's on top of what farmers will spend

filling up a couple of fuel tanks.

You know, you and I go to the gas station

and we're shocked.

We got to spend $36,000 to fill our darn tank up, right?

These farmers are going to be filling those combines up.

It's going to be costing $3,000 to $5,000 a throw.

Can you believe that?

$500,000, times $4, $5, there you go right there.

It's just crazy.

Beyond those higher costs, deportations

have thinned out the ag labor force.

Tariffs increase the price of goods like machinery

and cause tensions with China.

Those tensions aren't over.

Last week, the Trump administration announced

that a planned meeting with China,

the US's number one soybean export market

would be delayed for weeks.

That helped send soybean prices tumbling.

Joseph Glauber, a former USDA chief economist,

says farm balance sheets aren't looking good.

If you just look at the cast side of the business

in terms of what they receive for their crops

and what they have to pay out,

those margins have been tight

and in some cases negative.

And the challenges can build on each other.

Nitrogen fertilizer, for example, is used on corn

but not soybeans.

So if corn growing gets more expensive...

Market analysts are thinking that maybe

a million, a million half acres

or more could switch from corn into soybeans,

which, of course, is that is also contributed

to a lower soybean prices.

Farming is always unpredictable.

The weather, political developments in other countries,

all sorts of things can make markets chaotic.

But US policy choices can make it much harder.

In the first Trump administration,

for example, Trump's tariffs led China

to trade more with South America,

importing more of their soybeans in place of US soy.

That has persisted.

President Trump seems to know farmers are hurting.

He recently demanded in all caps on social media

that Congress, quote, pass the Farm Bill now.

And in a statement to NPR,

agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins said,

quote, our farmers are moving into planting season

and the president is aware of these challenges.

We are looking at every potential option

to lower fertilizer prices.

The department also emphasized the assistance

the administration has given farmers.

In December, they announced a $12 billion program

designed to support farmers through

as the administration put it,

and the recovery trade market disruptions

and increase production costs.

Altogether, federal direct aid to farmers

told more than $30 billion last year.

That helps, says Glauber,

but the government can only do so much.

You got to think that providing $20,

$20, $30 billion in additional monies

to the ag sector is not something that's going to happen,

you know, year in, year out.

Gary Wirtish is president of the Minnesota Farmers Union.

He also advised Democratic then-Senator

on agricultural issues and has farmed for decades.

To him, Trump's subsidies look not just like assistance

but a political gambit,

as Trump tries to stay in farmers' good graces.

It's not right for the US taxpayer

to keep bailing the farmers out,

which obviously the farmers need it now,

but we need policies that don't require bailouts.

We need a good farm bill.

We need policies that the farmers get their money

from the marketplace.

I ask David Olman, former co-chair of the Iowa Republican Party

if that's a fair assessment,

that subsidies are also a political ploy.

Well, I think it's the truth.

If you want to look at it that way,

and he isn't the only president or the only person

from a particular party that's trying to do that,

and he agrees with Wirtish

that farmers may need the money now,

but they'd prefer stability.

Most farmers, if they level with you,

would tell you they'd rather have certainty

than uncertainty looking out one, two, three crop years.

Then they can really plan.

Do they want to buy more acres?

Do they want to make six-figure,

capital equipment purchases?

Things of that sort.

He adds that if the pain persists for farmers,

it could drag on the GOP in the midterms.

Generally speaking, though,

Trump has received strong support

from farmers and rural areas in general,

and Trump has encouraged them to take the long view,

saying policies like tariffs

are short-term pain for long-term gain.

O'Brien is just one farmer of many,

but he dislikes that logic.

By these statements about,

well, there's going to be a little hurt

to be spread around,

but that'll all get better.

I, Craig Frank, you don't like that talking at all,

whether you're talking about farmers or veterans.

That's almost an insult,

but we're supposed to take it in the ribs,

but I guarantee you'll get it better, okay?

O'Brien is a Vietnam vet,

and so when he looks at the war in Iran,

he sees it not only through the lens of his business,

but his military experience.

It's so, so frustrating, you know.

And now you tell me,

where is this war going to end up?

This to me, this just smells like Vietnam 2.0.

I'm telling you,

this is going to not end well.

And whether it's Iran or tariffs

or any other policy affecting farmers,

the question is not just how it ends,

but when?

That was NPR's Danielle Kurtz Laban.

This episode was produced

by Christine Erasmith,

Alejandra Marquez-Honsei,

and Karen Zamora,

with audio engineering by Ted Mebein.

It was edited by Rebecca Metzler

and William Troop,

our executive producer is Sam Niannican.

It's considered this from NPR,

I'm Scott Detro.

Support for NPR in the following message

come from Washington Wise.

Decisions made in Washington

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Washington Wise from Charles Schwab

is an original podcast that unpacks

the story's making news

and how they may affect your finances

and portfolio.

Host Mike Townsend and his guests

explore policy initiatives

for retirement savings,

taxes, trade, and more.

Download the latest episode

and follow at Schwab.com slash

Washington Wise,

or wherever you listen.

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