An 80-mile crack splits Lake Erie’s ice as the lake nears a rare milestone, plus an upcoming Valentine's Day storm to bring drenching rain to southern US

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Well a couple of days ago, we talked about Lake Erie and the possibility that it might

get to be 100% frozen over.

And it is almost there, but over the weekend, the frozen surface split in a dramatic fashion.

A crack stretching more than 80 miles formed on Sunday, running from near the Canadian

side of the lake toward the Cleveland area.

The break opened up after strong winds swept across the Great Lakes on Friday and Saturday,

pushing and pulling the lakes ice as another blast of Arctic air poured into the region.

The striking split is not unheard of when Lake Erie is heavily frozen, as winds shift

or ease and temperatures fluctuate.

Large sheets of ice can drift, collide and separate, creating long, jagged openings

across the lake.

Now those same winds also shoved ice towards parts of the shoreline, where it can pile

up into ridges and create some hazards, including the risk of property damage in vulnerable

coastal areas.

As of this week, Lake Erie was about 95% ice covered, according to Noah's Great Lakes

Environmental Research Laboratory.

Despite the bitter cold over the past weekend, the wind has helped keep some pockets of

open water on the western end of the lake.

Other Lake Erie can close that gap and reach 100% coverage may come down to the next few

days, especially if winds relax long enough for ice to spread and then lock in.

Lake Erie has reached 100% ice coverage only three times since record keeping began

back in 1973.

Now, Acquie weather's brand and Buckingham has his doubts that it will get to 100% this

year, saying that signs point towards a bit of a warm up in the next week that may limit

the chances of completely freezing over.

Ice coverage can also shape spring weather around the Great Lakes.

Acquie weather is already predicting a cooler than normal spring in the region, an extensive

ice candlelay the arrival of shoreline warmth, especially for communities within a few

miles of the water.

Well, a large storm is brewing for the end of this week and during Valentine's Day

weekend in the central and eastern parts of the U.S., snow and ice are predicted on the

storms northern flank, but one of the biggest concerns is the drenching rain and thunderstorms

that will affect the south central and south eastern parts of the U.S.

The tail end of a clipper storm moving along the Canadian border will bring a brief preliminary

period of rain to the southeast around midweek.

Now following that fresh pool of chilly air, a new storm will form over the south central

states late in the week.

While there could be a brief period of ice and snow at the storms on set in parts of North

Carolina and southern Virginia, most of the storm from Missouri to Kentucky and southern

Virginia will be rain.

The storm is likely to bring one to four inches of rain to parts of Texas and Oklahoma

and through parts of Georgia and the Carolinas from Friday to Sunday.

The storm will begin in the plain states on Friday and spread eastward to the southern

Appalachians this weekend.

Now that amount of rain over 24 to 48 hours will generally not cause problems other than

possibly some travel delays and some minor urban or poor drainage style flooding.

Much of the region could use a thorough soaking as well, which this storm has the potential

to bring.

The zone from Texas and Oklahoma to Georgia and the Carolinas is experiencing a wide

range of soil conditions from adequately moist to exceptional drought based on the latest

U.S. drought monitor, not depending on the overall intensity of the storm and the number

of thunderstorms, locally higher amounts of rain may fall with an acuether local storm

max of six inches.

Too much rain may fall too fast for some small streams and neighborhoods to handle, so minor

flooding may result.

Those planning a romantic Valentine's Day walk in some southern states will probably need

an umbrella at the very least.

The most likely day for heavy gusty and possibly locally severe thunderstorms would be on Saturday

in the zone from eastern Texas and Louisiana to Arkansas and Mississippi.

Some storms may erupt sooner, farther to the west and linger later farther to the east.

A more intense storm such as this could increase the stakes for severe weather over the Mississippi

and Ohio valleys and could push substantial snow and ice farther north into the northeast.

A storm tracking farther to the north could mean much less rain for parts of the southeast

as well.

While severe weather in the winter is much rarer than the rest of the year, there can still

be a few events in the winter especially in the southern states close to the Gulf moisture.

Navigation on the Mississippi River is closed in the upper portion due to extensive ice

cover, farther south along the main stem shipping is limited due to ongoing low water levels,

which are within several feet of the low threshold and multiple points along the river.

That's all for now.

You can find more regional forecasts and science-based articles at acuether.com and for your local

forecast at your fingertips, download the acuether app.

Enjoy the rest of your day.

Be safe. I'll be back tomorrow with more from Acuether.

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