Andrei Martyanov: IT’S OVER: Iran & Russia Just Made Their Boldest Move Yet

Analysis of escalating US-Iran tensions under Trump, examining military realities: US lacks capacity for successful invasion of Iran due to nightmarish terrain, robust Iranian air defenses, and risk of devastating asymmetric retaliation against regional bases and Israel. Iran's doctrine has shifted offensive after demonstrating resilience in recent conflicts. Discussion covers Turkey's precarious multi-vector diplomacy, Arab states' vulnerability, and Israel's dependence on US support for any strike capability. On Ukraine, Russia maintains firm political objectives—achievable diplomatically or militarily—with US remaining a co-belligerent despite Trump's attempted exit. New START treaty expiration heightens nuclear risks, though deterrence prevents direct confrontation. The world is undergoing volatile transition toward multipolarity, with BRICS and SCO forming the nucleus of a new global order as Western hegemony decays. Nuclear weapons paradoxically provide stability amid great power realignment.

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