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Today, oil prices are on track for their steepest weekly fall for six months.
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After President Trump extended a deadline for strikes on a run for 10 days.
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And SpaceX could file for a record-breaking IPO any day now.
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This is Reuters Morning Beats bringing you unfiltered market news and analysis straight
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from the Reuters newsroom seven days a week.
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I'm Peter Devon in London.
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And I'm Elena Cassas.
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It's Friday, March 27.
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So Peter, oil prices look like they're on track for their steepest weekly fall in six months.
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After President Trump last night extended a deadline for airstrikes on Iran's energy plums.
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For another 10 days, that's until April the 6th.
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That announcement came after the close on Wall Street,
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which did clock up its steepest fall since the start of the war in Iran.
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The S&P closed down 1.7% and the Nasdaq confirmed a correction.
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So that's perhaps not unconnected to Trump's announcement, is it?
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Well, maybe a sigh of relief, but maybe more just a moment for the market to really just
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take the breath and take a breather.
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I mean, you're right, look at yesterday's moves, the steepest drop since January.
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And generally, that was because the press conference from President Trump yesterday
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seemed more like a precursor for a mass invasion rather than any sort of peace talks.
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And the markets are looking at these peace talks with a bit of a sketchy eye.
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So really, this decision today just seems like kicking the can down the road.
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We know that President Trump is very sensitive to what Wall Street does.
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I read this week that Deutsche Bank traders have created a so-called TACO index,
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a Trump chickening out index, where they've put in his current popularity ratings,
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the average price of gas at the pump, US Treasury yields,
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and the performance of the S&P to try and calculate when exactly President Trump might do a U-turn.
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And that just shows how difficult traders are finding it,
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to figure out what's coming next from government policy
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and therefore price in what might happen to oil.
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Well, let's use President Trump's words here.
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He said yesterday when he was asked about the deadline
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that a day is an eternity.
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And I think that's how traders are looking at it.
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No, they've got 10 days to win through masses of headlines.
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I mean, we've already seen some that this is just a delay tactic
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to maybe add more trips to the Middle East preparing for who knows what.
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So there's a minefield out there, and that's what's really hurting traders.
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Well, if it is a delay, that's not really what they're pricing, isn't it?
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At this oil price, it still looks like oil traders are assuming a relatively quick resolution.
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Macquarie said that prices could fall very quickly,
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if the stage of farmers is opened up.
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But it's still an enormous if and they said in the same research note
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that $200 a barrel is still very possible
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if the war continues until the end of June.
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Well, you've hit the knee on the head.
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There is all comes down to the street of Ramos
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and all these entry energy infrastructure in the Gulf
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is still looking a bit risky.
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So there's still lots to be wary of.
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11 million barrels a day are being taken out of supply
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by the closure of that straight.
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That's really significant.
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Asian countries are starting to run down their reserves.
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And as you say, what could change everything
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is further airstrikes on energy infrastructure
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and they got all further damage?
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We have seen some, of course,
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with the Cotari LNG facility that was hit by drone strikes
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but any more significant damage to energy facilities themselves
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could have a huge impact.
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Well, let's look at maybe some of the warnings we got this week,
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some big closer to home ones about recessions.
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Moody's said that there are probability of recession over the next years,
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Now, usually about a throughout a 12-month period,
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the probability is about 20%.
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But this is the highest it's been for years
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and they really note that if oil prices stay
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as high they are right now,
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maybe to run Memorial Day for our non-uslisters,
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that's about the 25th of May,
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or even to the end of the second quarter,
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the US is looking into recessions.
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This is really hurting.
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Certainly inflation forecasts are moving up across the developed world.
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Fed cover and Elisa Cook said yesterday
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that the risk is very much tilted to the upside
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in terms of inflation.
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And that will only increase predictions
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that the Fed will be obliged to height-rate this year,
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which, as you say, could have quite damaging consequences
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given that the job market already looks precarious.
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Well, let's look at those Fed comments there.
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As you said, Elisa Cook,
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but we all started from Jefferson and Barr
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noting about the risk inflation
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and those concerns are just getting lighter.
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Barr and Jefferson, as well,
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saying that they're looking at a hold knife
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from the Fed for a certain time period.
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And that came in through from Reuters poll this week,
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economists still seeing a hold to bite September,
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but maybe holding on hopes for a cut still.
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So it does seem to this be two voices emerging,
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economists and analysts may be saying this is transitory,
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which is a complete flip from what we saw
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on the Russian Ukraine crisis in 2022.
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Well, amid all this around us, Peter,
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we shouldn't miss out on another big story
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that could break in the next couple of days.
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SpaceX has expected to file for an IPO
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potentially before the end of March,
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which is expected to be the biggest in history.
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It's set to value the company at $1.75 trillion.
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That will be huge for the market, wouldn't it?
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So Elon Musk is hoping to raise
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around $75 billion per year.
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Let's look at the last record.
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It was about $30 billion from Sorodio Ramco in 2019.
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So he really wants to smash that record.
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Let's look at the pitch deck here.
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SpaceX is dominating the commercial space industry.
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But there are some critics here a bit skeptical,
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though they worry that funds could be a siphoned off
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towards XAI, so there are some worries still there.
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It's interesting that as much as 30% of these shares
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are expected to be made available to retail investors,
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a normal amount for an IPO would be more like five to 10%.
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So Elon Musk is really relying on his own personal fan base
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to buy up these shares.
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It's very much a vote of investor confidence
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on the man himself, this IPO, isn't it?
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And for today's recommended read,
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check out Jamie McGeevers' column on why,
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despite the war, oil price swings and all the uncertainty.
6:00
US stocks may actually deserve a more bullish outlook right now.
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We'll drop a link in the description.
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