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It's Monday, the 6th of April, for those of you who celebrate, I hope you had a very
happy Easter.
Welcome to the president's daily brief.
I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage.
Alright, let's get briefed.
Next up, after a tense, multi-day search behind enemy lines, US forces have successfully
rescued the second crew member of that downed F-15E in Iran.
All out of the details.
Later in the show, fears are growing that Russia is testing a familiar playbook in Estonia
as a pro-cremeland campaign pushes the idea of a separatist, Narva People's Republic
inside, of course, a NATO member state.
Plus, Kiev may be opening a new front against Russia, with reported drone strikes launched
from Libya, targeting Moscow's shadow fleet in the Mediterranean.
And it stays back in the brief.
ICE detains the niece of Kasem Soleimani, after the Trump administration revokes her
green card over alleged ties to Iran's regime.
But first, today's PDB spotlight.
The US woke up to some exceedingly good news on Easter morning, the second crew member
of that F-15E downed over Iran on Friday has been rescued.
As we reported on Friday, the aircraft was shot down over southwestern Iran, marking
a rare loss for the US Air Force in this conflict.
One of the two crew members, the pilot, was safely rescued shortly after the plane went
down.
But the second crew member, a weapons systems officer, couldn't be immediately located.
And for the better part of the last two days, this became a race.
A race between American forces trying to find and extract him and Iranian forces trying
to do the exact same thing.
What we know is that the downed officer did exactly what he was trained to do.
Using survival evasion, resistance and escape, what's known as seer training, he moved
away from the crash site, avoided detection, and made his way into mountainous terrain.
At one point, officials say he climbed a higher ground, hiding along a ridge line, and
later in a crevice, limiting his communications to avoid giving away his position.
He was injured, and according to reporting, had only his sidearm to defend himself, while
Iranian forces attempted to locate him.
The governor of the region, where he was suspected to be located, put the word out to civilians.
The government would pay a reward to anyone who could capture or kill the American.
Iranian revolutionary guard units and affiliated militia were actively searching the area,
and Iran got into him first.
This would have, of course, been a major propaganda victory.
A captured American airman, undoubtedly paraded on state media, used his leverage, it could
have changed the conflict overnight.
Instead the US searched everything it had to prevent that from happening, and what followed
appears, based on what we know so far, to have been an extremely complex combat search
and rescue operation.
It was an operation involving hundreds of personnel, special operations forces, Air Force
para-rescue teams, intelligence assets, and dozens of aircraft operating overhead.
The CIA played a key role, not only helping to locate the airman, but also running a deception
campaign, designed to confuse Iranian forces, pushing the idea that the pilot had already
been recovered and was being moved out of the country.
At the same time, US aircraft were actively shaping the battlefield, conducting strikes
and using drones to keep Iranian units away from the area, where the airman was believed
to be hiding.
Eventually, American commandos, reportedly including members of SEAL Team 6, were able to
reach him, treat his injuries, and begin the extraction.
But that final phase unfolded under fire.
We're now learning that multiple aircraft were damaged during the operation.
Two rescue helicopters reportedly took enemy fire, with crew members wounded, at least
1-8-10 providing cover, was lost during the broader mission, though its pilot ejected
and was rescued safely.
In addition, two US aircraft on the ground had to be destroyed by American forces when
they became unusable, simply to prevent them from falling into Iranian hands.
In the end, additional aircraft were brought in and the entire rescue team, including,
of course, a downed airman, was successfully extracted and flown out of Iran to safety
with the officer now receiving medical treatment in Kuwait.
But based on what we do know, this was an extraordinary effort.
It's a reminder of the level of coordination, capability, and the risk involved in bringing
a single American home from behind enemy lines.
Alright, before we go to break, just a quick reminder that if you love the PDB and hopefully
you do, well, and you want to listen to it at free, just consider becoming a premium
member.
Just go to PDBpremium.com.
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Coming up next, Russia may be testing its Ukraine playbook in Estonia, reminding us
of Vladimir Putin's often stated desire to rebuild the Soviet Union in some fashion.
As Kiev, reportedly, opens a new front from Libya, targeting Moscow's shadow fleet.
I'll be right back.
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Welcome back to the PDB.
I want to move now to Eastern Europe, where there are growing fears that Russia may be attempting
to replicate a strategy that it used to destabilize Ukraine.
This time in neighboring Estonia, which of course is a NATO nation.
At the center of those concerns is the city of Narva.
It's a small but strategically sensitive border town of about 50,000 people, sitting
right along Estonia's frontier with Russia.
Now on its face, nothing has changed on the ground.
And online, a different picture is emerging, one that looks increasingly familiar.
In recent weeks, pro-Russian social media channels have begun pushing the idea of a so-called
quote, Narva People's Republic.
Posts are calling for autonomy, encouraging residents to arm themselves, and even urging
acts of sabotage against the Estonian state.
Some feature flags and maps and mock government structures for this imagined breakaway region.
Others include videos of masked individuals calling on supporters to quote, act together.
Now, Estonian authorities are moving quickly to tamp this down, calling it a coordinated
disinformation campaign.
Intelligence officials say there's no evidence of a genuine grassroots separatist movement.
Instead, they see the hallmarks of something much more deliberate, an influence operation,
designed to create confusion, stoke fear, and test the cohesion of Estonian society.
And of course, we've seen this playbook before.
Back in 2014, in eastern Ukraine, Moscow backed creation of so-called People's Republics
in Donetsk and Lansk, what started as online narratives and local agitation quickly escalated.
Armed groups emerged, Russian intelligence operatives moved in, and before long, those
regions became the focal point of a broader conflict that ultimately drew in conventional
Russian military forces.
The strategy Russia used is well established.
First you amplify claims that the Russian speaking populations are under threat.
Then you introduce the idea of autonomy or outright independence.
From there, you encourage unrest, build parallel structures of authority, and create a pretext
for intervention under the guise of protection.
Narva fits several key elements of that model.
Roughly 90% of its population is Russian speaking, making it an obvious target for
this kind of messaging.
And while there's little indication that residents feel oppressed, that hasn't stopped
Kremlin-aligned narratives from pushing exactly that claim for years.
Now to be clear, there are no signs of an imminent Russian military move into Estonia.
Most analysts agree that Moscow is unlikely to open a second front while its war in Ukraine
continues.
But that doesn't mean that this situation should be dismissed.
What we may be seeing instead is the early stage of a longer term pressure campaign.
A way to probe NATO's defenses, not just militarily, but psychologically.
Because Estonia isn't Ukraine, it's a member of NATO.
Any escalation here carries far greater risk.
And that raises a difficult question.
If a crisis were to erupt in a place like Narva, would NATO be prepared to respond decisively?
Or would hesitation create an opening?
There are already forces positioned nearby.
A German brigade stationed to Lithuania, roughly 400 kilometers away, is part of NATO's
broader effort to maintain a presence.
In the event of a conflict, those units could be called in quickly, but whether they would
be, then how far that response would go, well that remains an open question.
Timing matters here too.
Estonian officials have noted that this campaign is ramping up, as global attention of course
has shifted elsewhere, particularly toward the ongoing war with Iran.
Now as Russia leans into a familiar playbook in Estonia, we may be seeing Ukraine adopt
a page from an entirely different playbook.
Kiev has opened a new front against Moscow, and it's nowhere near Eastern Europe.
It's in Libya.
According to multiple reports, Ukrainian military personnel are now operating inside Western
Libya more than 200 officers and specialists, working with the internationally recognized
government in Tripoli.
The Ukrainian troops are reportedly spread across several sites, including a military airbase
in Miss Rada, a drone facility near key energy infrastructure and a coordination hub
in the capital.
Now neither Kiev nor Libyan officials have confirmed any of this publicly, but if the reporting
holds, well it points to something much bigger than a quiet partnership.
It suggests that Ukraine is expanding its fight with Russia far beyond its own borders.
And here's where it gets more interesting.
Some of these Ukrainian units are reportedly involved in launching naval drone attacks in
the Mediterranean Sea.
One incident in an early March targeted a Russian-linked liquefied natural gas tanker, part of Moscow's
shadow fleet.
That's the network of vessels of course used to skirt sanctions and keep energy revenues
flowing.
The strike reportedly damaged the ship's engine room, leaving it dead in the water.
If true, well that's a significant shift.
Ukraine isn't just defending territory anymore.
It's going after Russian economic targets wherever they operate.
And Libya, as it turns out, is the perfect place to do it.
The country remains fractured, split between rival governments in the east and west, each
backed by different foreign powers.
Russia has long supported strongman Khalifa Haftar in eastern Libya while the Tripoli-based
government maintains ties with Western and regional allies.
Add in the presence of Turkish forces, US Africa command and various European actors,
and you've got a crowded volatile environment where deniable operations can thrive.
In other words, a classic proxy battleground.
From Ukraine's perspective, this kind of move makes strategic sense.
By operating out of Libya, Kiev can extend its reach into the Mediterranean, targeting
Russian ships and forcing Moscow to defend its assets far from the front lines.
It's a way of raising the cost of the war without escalating directly inside Russia itself.
But of course, as you might imagine, it also carries risk.
Libya is already unstable, introducing another layer of competition, especially one,
tied to an ongoing war, raises the chances of miscalculation.
And while these operations may be deniable, there's always the possibility that things spill
over in ways that neither side can fully control.
OK, coming up in the back of the brief, the federal agents arrest a relative of deceased
former senior Iranian commander Kasem Soleimani in Los Angeles, as Washington moves to expel
foreign nationals linked to hostile regimes.
We'll have the details.
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In today's back of the brief, federal agents have arrested the niece of slain Iranian
general Kasem Soleimani in the US.
After the Trump administration revoked her legal status over alleged ties to the regime
in Tehran.
According to the State Department, Hamad Day Soleimani Afshar, who had been living in Los Angeles,
was taken into custody by US immigration and customs enforcement, or known as ICE, along
with her daughter, and they're now facing removal from the country.
The move came after Secretary of State Marco Rubio personally revoked their green cards,
citing national security concerns.
Officials alleged that Afshar wasn't just a relative of a high-profile Iranian figure,
but an active supporter of the regime itself.
According to the State Department, she promoted Iranian government propaganda, praised attacks
against American forces, and openly supported the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC,
which the US has designated as a terrorist organization.
Secretary of State Rubio said Afshar had, quote, celebrated attacks on Americans while
living what officials described as a comfortable life inside the US.
Afshar reportedly entered the country on a tourist visa in 2015, was granted asylum in
2019 and later obtained a green card in 2021.
But according to the Department of Homeland Security, she traveled back to Iran multiple
times after receiving that status, raising serious questions about the legitimacy of her
asylum claim in the first place, and given the exalted status that her uncle, Sam Soleimani,
had within the IRGC, one could argue that her claim for asylum was completely bogus.
And that's a key point, because asylum is granted based on a credible fear of persecution.
If someone is voluntarily returning to the country they claim to be fleeing, well, it
tends to undermine that case.
And in this instance, officials say it may have been fraudulent, really, you think so.
Her daughter followed a similar path, entering out a student visa, receiving asylum, and
eventually becoming a lawful permanent resident.
Now if one were churlish, one could point out how this might be an indication of just
how screwed up US immigration policies are.
Now both are now in ice custody, and they're not alone.
The State Department says it is recently revoked illegal status of other individuals tied
to senior Iranian officials, including the daughter of a former regime figure who has
already left the US and is now barred from returning.
This appears to be part of a wider effort by the Trump administration to tighten security
on foreign nationals with ties direct or indirect to adversarial regimes, particularly
those designated as state sponsors of terrorism.
The message appears to be relatively straightforward.
Legal status in the US is a privilege, it's not a human right?
And if officials believe that privilege is being used to support hostile actors, now they're
willing to revoke it.
And that my friends, is the president's daily brief from Monday, the 6th of April.
Now if you have any questions or comments and I hope you do, please reach out to me at
PDB at thefirsttv.com.
And I hope you had time over the weekend to catch the latest episode of our extended weekend
show that of course is the PDB situation report.
If not, you can find it and pass episodes on our YouTube channel, just go on over to YouTube
and search up at President's Daily Brief and of course on podcast platforms all over
podcast land.
This weekend we had great guests including Benham Ben Taliblo from the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies to provide insight into the Iran conflict as well as Gordon Chang
providing important analysis of the relationship between China and Iran.
And I hope you'll tune in.
I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin.
Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
The President's Daily Brief
