April 7th, 2026: Top IRGC Commander Eliminated & Hormuz Traffic Rises

It's Tuesday, 7th April. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your

eyes and ears on the world stage. Alright, let's get briefed.

First up, another major blow to Iran's leadership, as Israel terminates the head of IRGC intelligence

and a top-coulds-force commander as well. I'll have the details.

Later in the show, even as Iran keeps its grip on the state of Hormuz, the number of vessels

transiting waterway is increasing, pointing to behind-the-scenes deals, likely evolving

payments to the Iranian regime in order to keep the oil moving.

Plus, a growing energy crisis has not slowed Ukraine's campaign, as Kiev targets Russian

oil infrastructure, despite international pressure to ease off. And in today's back

of the brief, North Korea appears to be preparing for its next leader, and, no surprise, they're

keeping it all in the family. But first, today's PDB spotlight.

Even as ceasefire talks stall, and another White House deadline approaches, Israel is

continuing a very different type of campaign, systematically removing Iran's leadership.

The latest example came yesterday, when Israel announced that Majid Kadehmi, the head of

intelligence for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, was killed in a targeted

strike in Tehran. He wasn't alone. Coulds-force special operations commander Asgar Baghari was

also killed in the strike. Now, Baghari had led that unit since 2019, overseeing covert

operations, targeting Israeli forces along the Syrian border, and helping coordinate the

transfer of weapons from Iran to its proxies. Kadehmi wasn't just another name on a long

list of casualties. He ran the most powerful intelligence organization in Iran, responsible

for domestic surveillance, counter-espionage, and monitoring foreign threats. In many ways,

this was the regime's internal shield, the system that designed to detect infiltration

and prevent attacks and protect the leadership. What makes this strike especially notable

is that Kadehmi had only been in the role since 2025, after his predecessor was killed

during Israel's Operation Rising Lion in June of last year. Since the start of the

latest war, several of Iran's top intelligence and security posts have turned over, managed

lots of headroom, as Israel continues targeting senior officials and commanders. And there's

another detail here that stands out. According to Israeli officials, Kadehmi had been moving

constantly, relocating in an effort to avoid detection. Well, apparently that didn't work. He

was tracked and eliminated. While headlines are focused on whether this war is escalating,

whether diplomacy might reemerge, or whether there's an offer at all, this campaign targeting

Iran's command and control has continued at a steady pace. Strike after strike, and

senior figure after senior figure. The goal appears clear. Degrade Iran's ability to operate

by dismantling the people who run the system. Not just the military, but the intelligence infrastructure

that keeps the regime informed, coordinated, and secure. And you can get a sense of just how

significant this latest strike was by the reaction coming out of Tehran. In a statement following

Kadehmi's death, the revolutionary guard vowed what they called a, quote, major retaliatory strike

under an operation that they've named, crushing revenge. Well, that's catchy. That threat is coming

specifically from the intelligence arm that just lost its chief. Meanwhile, as President Trump's

deadline looms, Iran is pushing back with what US officials are calling a maximalist response

to a potential ceasefire deal. As we reported yesterday, the US, Iran, and a group of regional

mediators led by Pakistan have been working toward a two-phase agreement, a 45-day ceasefire

followed by broader negotiations aimed at ending the war. But now we're getting a clearer picture

of why that deal appears out of reach. According to US officials and Iranian state media,

Tehran's response includes a series of sweeping demands, starting with a permanent end of the war,

not just a temporary pause. That's a key sticking point, and one that mediators are now scrambling

to resolve. Iran is also reportedly tying any agreement to wider regional conditions,

including an end to Israeli military operations in places like Lebanon. And there are additional

demands on the table, guaranteed safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, reconstruction

payments, and the lifting of sanctions imposed by the US and its allies. Taken together,

it's a package that one US official described as maximalist, and one that President Trump says

simply isn't good enough. Speaking to reporters, Trump said it's, quote, highly unlikely,

he'll extend his deadline, warning that if no deal is reached, he could order major strikes on

Iranian civilian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges. Iran, for its part,

is already signaling how it might respond, warning of retaliatory strikes targeting energy

and water infrastructure across the Gulf. All right, coming up next, Iran still controls

the Strait of Hormuz, but more ships are passing through the waterway. And Ukraine is pressing ahead

with strikes on Russian energy targets, despite growing global concern over global energy supplies

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Welcome back to the PDB. We're watching traffic through the

Strait of Hormuz climb to its highest level in weeks, but before we call that progress,

it's worth taking a closer look at how those ships are actually getting through.

Because right now, every transit depends on Iran. Over the weekend, 21 ships made it through

the Strait, including 15 on Sunday alone. That's the highest level we've seen since the early days

of this conflict. But let's take a closer look. Traffic is still down more than 90% from pre-war

levels when roughly 135 vessels were moving through the waterway every single day. So yes, more

ships are moving, but it's nowhere close to normal. And more importantly, it's not a reopening.

It's a system that's being tightly controlled. What we're saying is countries negotiating

directly with the Iranian regime just to move ships out of the Gulf. Iraq was granted an

exemption for a shipment of crude. India has managed to move several LPG tankers, including some

tied to Iranian supply. Even vessels linked to China and Japan are getting through, but often

only after multiple attempts and behind the scenes coordination. In total, ships from a range

of countries, including China, which has probably received the most large s from the Iranian regime.

Turkey, Greece, and Thailand have made the crossing under these conditions. And that tells you

something important. Because it's not about freedom of navigation. This is Iran inserting itself

directly into the flow of global commerce. In many cases, ships are being routed along paths

that appear to be dictated by the regime, often hugging Iran's coastline. Some vessels have

started testing alternative routes, but the reality hasn't changed. Passage still depends on Iranian

approval, and the terms of those approvals are often unclear. In a handful of cases,

governments are going even further to secure access. Pakistan, for example, has reportedly been

offered 20 transit slots, more than the number of its ships currently stuck in the strait,

and is now weighing options, such as reflagging vessels, to secure critical supplies like fertilizer

and oil. And while some of these agreements are acknowledged publicly, many of the details do

remain opaque, negotiated quietly behind closed doors. At the same time, Iran is still moving to

formalize this control over the strait. Regime officials are advancing legislation that would

regulate transit through the strait and codify fees for passage, turning one of the world's

most important shipping lanes into a toll system. Ship owners say that in practice some of these

payments are already happening, with Iran framing them as compensation for war-related damages.

Now, as our regular PDB listeners know, the strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical

choke points in the global economy, carrying roughly 20 percent of the world's oil and gas supply.

And instead of open access, what's emerging is a system where a single regime can influence

who gets through when they get through and under what conditions. The US is signaling that it will

not accept that situation indefinitely. President Trump warned of severe consequences if Iran

doesn't fully reopen strait, because at the end of the day, allowing a hostile actor to control

a critical transit route so important to the global energy markets, carries serious economic

and strategic risks. But for now, Iran holds the leverage. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Navy, or, I suppose, what's left of it, has made clear that the strait will, quote, never return

to its previous condition, particularly when it comes to access for the US. So yes, more ships

are moving, but this isn't stability. It's now a tollway operated by an authoritarian regime.

An authoritarian regime that's extorting the international community in order to move oil and gas

through the strait. Turning now to the war in Ukraine and Kiev is doubling down on its campaign

against the Kremlin's energy infrastructure, hitting oil facilities inside Russia,

despite allied calls to ease off amid constricting global markets. This week, Ukrainian drones again

pushed deep into Russian territory, hitting a luke oil refinery roughly 800 kilometers from

the Ukrainian border, and an oil terminal near the Baltic border of Primozk, one of Moscow's

most critical export hubs. Now, local officials are acknowledging damage, citing fires at fuel storage

sites and disruptions at refining facilities. Videos and pictures posted to social media

reveal massive explosions. Ukrainian officials, including Kiev's unmanned systems forces commander,

say the strikes were ultimately successful. The Russian defense ministry did claim it

intercepted 87 drones across the western part of the country and in occupied Crimea,

including 19 over the Leningrad region, where key oil export terminals like Primozk and Usluga

are located. But despite those defenses, Ukrainian drones are still getting through. The governor

of Russia's Nizhny Novgorod region said the brief from intercepted drones damaged facilities

at the luke oil refinery. In the Leningrad region, the governor initially reported the strike

on an oil pipeline near Primozk, then clarified that fuel storage tanks at the site had caught fire.

Either way, the outcome is the same. Critical energy infrastructure that drives Moscow's war

machine was hit. For those of you who are unfamiliar, Primozk has been targeted repeatedly in recent

weeks, with Ukrainian forces striking the site on multiple consecutive nights at the end of March.

Now, we're seeing a sustained campaign, one that's reaching deeper into Russian territory,

and focusing squarely on the infrastructure that keeps oil moving to global markets.

Oil exports remain one of the Kremlin's most important sources of income, of course,

and right now, with global prices rising, those exports are even more valuable.

So Kiev is making a calculated decision to continue these strikes even as allies, including

Washington, urge restraint, aiming to deny Moscow the windfall that comes with higher energy prices.

As mentioned, the conflict in Iran, now in its sixth week, has disrupted supply, driven energy

prices higher, and left allies increasingly concerned that continued strikes on Russian infrastructure

could push oil prices even higher than they already are. Still, Ukraine is pressing ahead anyway.

At the same time, the Trump administration sanctioned major Russian energy companies

like Lukoil and Ross Neff in late 2025, targeting a vital source of Moscow's war funding.

But that was then, this is now. After the outbreak of war in Iran,

the Treasury Department issued a temporary license, allowing certain Russian oil shipments to

proceed in an effort to stabilize global markets and prevent even sharper price spikes.

So on the one hand, the Washington's moves to ease the sanctions on Russian oil,

in order to contain the market shock and keep prices from spiraling,

while those moves serve to put more money into Putin's war chest.

On the other, Ukraine is actively working to cut off Russia's ability to benefit from those

rising oil prices. It is, to use a fancy word, a conundrum.

All right, coming up in the back of the brief, North Korea's next leader may already be in training,

as Kim Jong-un's teenage daughter takes on a growing public role. Oh, good. A teenager in charge

of a nuclear arsenal, what could go wrong? We'll have the details.

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In today's back of the brief, North Korea may be preparing its next leader, and it is all in the

family. According to South Korea's intelligence agency, it's now fair to view Kim Jong Un's young

teenage daughter as his likely successor. That's the strongest language that we've heard yet,

and it marks a clear shift from earlier assessments that she was simply being groomed behind the scenes.

Over the past few years, she's been stepping into the spotlight in ways that feel anything but

accidental. First appearing alongside her father at a ballistic missile launch back in 2022,

every teenager's idea of a great day out, and she's since been featured at a growing number of

high-profile events, military inspections, weapons factories, even climbing into the driver's

seat of a tank during a training exercise, okay, to be fair, if I was a teenager, I would find

that very cool. In one recent appearance, she was photographed firing a pistol under her father's

watchful eye, not literally. The message here is pretty clear. This isn't just a child tagging

along. This is a carefully managed rollout. State media has already begun laying the groundwork,

referring to her as Kim's, quote, most beloved, and, quote, respected, child. That's going to

cause some sibling rivalry, and according to South Korean officials, those public appearances are

designed to build up her military credentials, and importantly, soften resistance to the idea of a

female leader in one of the most rigidly male-dominated regimes on the planet. That would be a historic

shift. Since it's founding in 1948, North Korea has been ruled exclusively by men from the Kim family.

First, there was Kim O's song, and Kim Jong-il, and now Kim Jong-un. A daughter stepping into that

roll would mark the first break in that pattern while I'm still preserving what really matters to

the regime. That would be their dynasty. And speaking of internal dynamics, there's another

interesting detail here. Kim's sister, Kim Yo-jong, long believed to be the second most powerful

figure in the country, is now being described by South Korean intelligence as having no substantial

independent authority. In other words, no real obstacle to a fourth-generation handoff.

Now, there are still plenty of unknowns. Kim Jong-un is only in his early 40s, and North Korea

remains deeply secretive. Even basic details about his daughter, including her age and name,

haven't been officially confirmed, as anybody looked on TikTok. Some analysts remain skeptical

that a female successor would be accepted by the regime's inner circle. And, as we mentioned,

with the hermit kingdom, there are always plenty of unknowns.