Are Polymarket and Kalshi decentralized?

headline are Polly Market and Kalshi decentralized, published at 335 PM March 6, 2026.

Polly Market, Kalshi, and other prediction markets have taken the world by storm,

and in the process seen massive support from the cryptocurrency industry.

Kalshi makes claims about democratizing finance, while Polly Market proclaims that

using decentralized blockchain technology removes the need for a central authority and trading,

which fosters fairness and open participation. Kalshi wasn't originally built on a blockchain at all,

however, it's expanded into tokenized positions on Solana, claiming that tokenization is the end

game. It is non-custodial, instant, and crypto-native. However, that's not how it currently functions.

Instead, it depends on Jupiter to handle the off-chain actions required, including to open positions,

manage positions, and claim winnings. Not exactly non-custodial, suggesting we're a great

distance from the end game. These prediction markets aren't meant to be truly decentralized,

unstoppable, or censorship-resistant like other crypto projects. Instead, they maintain

extraordinary control over the markets that are made available, sometimes even removing them

before resolution. Removing markets

Recently, Polly Market listed markets that resolved based on whether or not nuclear detonations

occurred. It then removed these markets following backlash from the community. Critics felt that

markets on nuclear detonation were Polly Market finding ways to profit from the possibility of

history defining calamities and destruction. Unlike earlier attempts at prediction markets,

such as auger, Polly Market, and Kalshi don't allow any user to make a new market.

Instead, entrusting that responsibility to the centralized actors that operate the platforms.

This is something that Polly Market is upfront with, noting in its help center that

markets are created by the markets team, and users cannot directly create their own markets,

though it does comfort them with the notion that they are encouraged to suggest ideas.

Kalshi also tells users that it loves community ideas for new markets.

Interestingly, although both Polly Market and Kalshi maintain the ability to remove markets,

that ability is much less advertised. It's not mentioned in any of the market's articles in

Polly Market or Kalshi's help centers. Screenshot of Search of Polly Markets Help Center for Archived.

ScreenshotofX.com Search of Polly Markets Posts for Archived.

Read more. Polly Market ends trading loophole for Bitcoin quants.

The Polly Market page for the nuclear explosion market now proclaims that market has been archived.

A search for archived in the Polly Market help center returns zero results,

as does a search on X for any Polly Market posts that include the word archived.

When a Polly Market event is archived, it's also no longer possible to retrieve details about

the event using the Polly Market API. The Polly Market API is meant to return the token ID,

which can be used to query the smart contract for additional details.

Users in the Polly Market Discord claim that after Polly Market removed this market,

they could no longer see the bet in their portfolio, with one user asking,

what happened to my money? Anybody who asks questions is directed to pay attention to the hashtag

market updates channel in Discord, where it eventually announced that losses would be refunded.

Polly Market and Kalshi Market Resolution

Polly Market's terms of service note that the company is not involved in nor responsible for

the resolution of any contracts displayed on the platform.

The resolution on Polly Market relies on UMA, a blockchain oracle that allows token holders

to resolve disputes about various outcomes. Kalshi, however, doesn't maintain the same claim,

openly noting that when you request to settle market, that request will then go to the market's

team, who will thoroughly review all the settlement requests. Both Polly Market's

Oracle-based resolution and Kalshi's resolution mechanisms have provoked a great deal of

controversy among users. In one Polly Market controversy, an Ethereum user with the Ethereum

Name Service name, born TooLate.Eath, manipulated the outcome of a Ukraine United States mineral

deal-related market by becoming one of the largest holders of the UMA token. This highlighted the

governance dangers centered around the market. Polly Market was also drawn into Polly Market several

months ago when it launched a market that was meant to resolve based on whether or not Ukrainian

President Vladimir Zelensky would wear a suit before July. Zelensky arrived at the NATO meeting in

a non-traditional suit, meant to emulate more militaristic aesthetics due to the ongoing Russian

invasion of Ukraine. The market was originally proposed as resolving to yes and ended up resolving

in favor of no, arguing that the suit he wore didn't meet the intent of the market resolution,

which read simply, this market will resolve to yes, if Vladimir Zelensky is is photographed or

videotaped, wearing a suit between May 22nd and June 30th, 2025, Eastern time. Even the Polly Market

Intel account on X, which has a gold check mark, and the Polly Market logo, which indicates that

it's an affiliate of at Polly Market, posted a video with the caption, President Zelensky,

in a suit last night. Polly Market would subsequently try to distance itself from this account.

This dispute was handled by UMA token holders, but that's not always how Polly Market deals with

controversial market resolutions. The platform had listed a market that was meant to answer whether or

not the so-called Department of Government Efficiency would cut three billion dollars of DEI contracts

before March. The resolution criteria for this market was whether or not DogeTracker.com

showed more than the three billion dollars in cuts. However, despite the resolution criteria

being met, Polly Market pulled the market and refunded losses, claiming that Doge-Tracker.com

wasn't reliable. Thus, markets don't always resolve according to their resolution criteria.

Both of these cases highlight the tension between stated resolution criteria and how users and

oracles expect the market to resolve. CalShi has also seen its fair share of controversy around

market resolution. In one case, X user ZeroX Tyrael claimed that they had lost money on CalShi,

as it ruled that Trump didn't say mom Donnie in an interview where he mangled the pronunciation

of the New York mayor's name. More recently, a market about whether or not Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

would be out as Iranian Supreme Leader resolved to know because the resolution criteria noted that

if the leader leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the

exchange will determine the payouts based upon the last traded price prior to the death.

Read more. Odds swing wildly as Polly Market bets on Iran's successor collapse. Despite

this being included in the resolution criteria, many users felt cheated, again highlighting the

tension between the resolution criteria as written and as understood. All of these various issues

highlight the difficulty of creating a way to consistently resolve markets, especially in cases

where resolution criteria are poorly written. Donald Trump Jr. Both Polly Market and CalShi are

intimately tied to the Trump regime, as both platforms have added Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor.

Additionally, Trump Jr. invested in Polly Market via the venture capital firm where he is a

partner, 1789 Capital. Additionally, Trump Media, where Trump Jr. is a director,

has announced that it will launch prediction markets in cooperation with Crypto.com.

All these prediction markets have benefited from the commodity and futures trading commission

being permissive in its regulatory oversight of prediction markets under the Trump

administration, and some portion of those benefits financially accrue to the Trump family.

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