Are the Bruins in DANGER of Missing Playoffs? INSIDE Look at Shocking Stats

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The Boston Ruins are currently holding on to a playoff spot, but there are a few key

stats that could keep them from clenching at seasons in.

Your Lockdown Bruins, your daily podcast on the Boston Bruins, part of the Lockdown

Podcast Network, your team, every day.

What is up Bruins fans and welcome back to the Lockdown Boston Bruins Podcast, part

of the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network.

I'm your host Ian McLaren and I am a lifelong Boston Bruins fan who's been covering this

team and the NHL for various maitler, maitler, major outlets for nearly 20 years.

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And today's episode, we are going to discuss a few key stats that could keep the Boston

Bruins from clenching a playoff spot.

They're in a wildcard spot at the moment thanks to the Los Angeles Kings tonight's opponent

beating the Columbus Blue Jackets in overtime last night.

We'll preview tonight's game against the Kings later on in the podcast after we talk

about Boston's penalty troubles.

They're penalty kill, ineptitude and some other more fancy advanced stats that are working

against them as well.

Let's just start with the penalty situation.

The Bruins have struggled in this area all season long.

Right now they are second in the NHL in terms of penalty minutes accrued so far this season.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have jumped out to a pretty healthy lead thanks to some banger

games against the Florida Panthers and now the Buffalo Sabers have turned into arrival

of theirs.

They've got 930 penalty minutes so far this season averaging 15 again, which is pretty

wild when you think that they are one of the top teams in the NHL this season.

They're second in the Atlantic, third in the Eastern Conference despite this huge penalty

minute total that they have accrued.

The Bruins by comparison have 812 penalty minutes so far this season.

They're averaging 12 minutes and 53 seconds of penalty minutes per game and their net penalty

rating is by far the worst in the NHL.

Let's look at the penalties drawn versus penalties taken.

While the Tampa Bay Lightning have taken 321 penalties, they've drawn 315, which gives

them a net penalty differential of minus 6.

The third place team in terms of penalty minutes is the Florida Panthers.

They have a positive net penalty differential because while they've taken 370, sorry, 307

penalties, one more than the Bruins, they've drawn 325.

So the Bruins, they're not just taking a bunch of penalties but they're failing to draw

penalties as well.

They are, where do they rank in terms of penalties drawn so far this season?

I mean they've drawn the fourth most amount of penalties so far this season at 266.

However, they've taken 306 so that net penalty is minus 40, which is the worst in the NHL.

They need to take fewer penalties to better balance a decent amount that they have drawn.

So that's kind of the, one of the big stats for the Boston Bruins.

They have to reduce their amount of penalties taken.

They need to maybe draw a few more penalties as well and limit the amount of time that

they are shorthanded because one of the other key stats that we've been talking about

all year long is the Bruins, excuse me, penalty kill issues.

And I should add, since January 1st, the Bruins have been a bit better in terms of penalties

taken and drawn.

They've taken, this is since January 1st, they've taken 96 penalties which is 8th, they've

drawn 90.

So since the new year, their net penalty is minus 6.

So far greater improvement over the last several weeks than what we saw earlier on this season.

But when it comes to Boston's penalty kill, they're still really struggling or they have

been prior to the Olympic break anyways.

This season, look, if you're taking a lot of penalties, at least if you're penalty killers

are succeeding, then it's not as big of an issue.

But right now for the season, the Bruins are 25th in the NHL with a 77.3% success rate

on the penalty kill.

That's not good at all.

The Bruins just have not been able to kill penalties with much success so far this season.

And when you're taking a lot of penalties, there's a couple of things working at you.

It's a bit of a catch-22, right?

If your penalty killers are struggling or ill-equipped for that task, that's one thing.

But if you're taking a lot of penalties, you're relying more on those players and also

taking your better players off the ice.

So for example, Morgan Geeky, David Poschenok, they don't really kill penalties.

So if you're taking a lot of penalties and finding yourself at a disadvantage, regularly

you're not able to deploy your best players in those situations.

Then you're putting out guys who are getting more than expected ice time and they're not

exactly thriving in those roles either.

Some guys have come on, Murat Hussinudinov, Fraser Minton, but they're still young guys.

I can't always be relied upon to kill penalties with the greatest efficacy as we had with

Radmarshawn, even Jake DeBrusque in the past.

Now two Boston's credit since the Olympic break and it's a very small sample size, but

they have drastically improved the penalty kill.

In fact, over the last six games, they have the third ranked penalty kill in the NHL,

selling off 88.2% of the penalties over the past six games.

Only Seattle and St. Louis have better penalty kills in that time.

It's a very small sample size.

It's six, it's like a 10% sample size for the season as a whole.

And for the season, the Bruins, again, 25th in the NHL on the penalty kill.

And that is a big area of concern.

Not only in terms of getting into the playoffs, but we know that special teams are so important

in the post season.

And it's unfortunate because the Bruins on the power play have been very, very good this

season.

In fact, they are the fifth best team on the power play this season up there with the Edmonton

Oilers far and away at the best team, Dallas, Vegas, Minnesota, and then our Boston

Bruins.

Which is pretty impressive, considering some of the penalty or the power play units that

can be thrown out there.

Edmonton, you can have Connor McDavid, Leon Drysaddle, Evan Bouchard on your first power play

unit.

Dallas, Mika Rantino, when he's healthy, Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskenin, Wyatt Johnston's

out there, even Vegas Golden Knights, Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel, Shay Theodore, Pavel

DeRofiev, Minnesota Wild, Quinn Hughes, Curel Caprazov, Matt Boldy.

The Bruins, it's like Maureen Geeky, David Posternauk, Pavel Zaka, Charlie McAvoy, throw

it in another forwarded defenseman there, like they don't have the highest end skill in

the NHL, but yet they're succeeding on the power play.

If you can balance that out with an even average penalty kill, then you have a far greater

chance of succeeding in terms of getting into a playoff spot, as well as when you get

into the playoffs.

So those are a few surface level key stats that the Bruins are struggling with, and that

could keep them from making the playoffs and or succeeding once they get there.

Too many penalties, too much time spent in the box, too little success when it comes

to killing those penalties, as well.

And when you're killing penalties too much, you're throwing off the whole deployment dynamic

where your better players in David Posternauk, Morgan Geeky aren't seeing the ice as much,

you're relying more on Shocker Alley, like your bottom six guys getting more than necessary

ice time, and you're overtaxing them as well, then it's just hard to kill penalty after

penalty, after penalty, night in and night out.

So those are two, three key stats that could keep the Bruins out of the playoffs.

As the podcast continues, we're going to look at a few other deeper stats that also are

working against them.

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All right, let's talk about a few more stats that could keep the Boston Bruins out of

the Stanley Cup playoffs this year and these are kind of more advanced stats that are indicators

of success.

Now I've talked every day as we'll remember about the money puck versus athletic models

and the athletic here this morning, let's see what they've got in terms of the Bruins

playoff chances versus money puck.

They kind of look at, you know, the teams shooting metrics as well as some more advanced

stats like expected goals and shot high danger shots, things like that.

Right now on the athletic, the Bruins have a 35% chance of making the playoffs while over

at money puck, they're at 61.2%.

And one of the reasons why some advanced stats models are not as high on the Bruins is

because they are routinely a and we're going to look at five on five.

We've already talked about their penalty kill issues and how they're struggling at five

on five.

The Bruins are not generating as much as the opposition.

The majority of the games played at five on five.

So if you're regularly giving up more shot attempts than the opposition, that means that

they have the puck more and they're getting the puck more towards the net, which just

increases the chances of goals going in.

The Bruins are 19th in the NHL when it comes to shot attempt differential and in terms

of shot differential, they are 23rd.

So the actual math they've generated, uh, 2000, 41 shots.

No, sorry, they've generated 1312 shots and they've allowed 1369.

So not a huge gap, but it is somewhat troubling when it comes to scoring chances.

The Bruins rank 23rd in the NHL in terms of that differential, they've generated 1312

and they've allowed 1389 when it comes to high danger chances.

And that's kind of looking in the home plate area.

The Bruins rank 27th in the NHL in that differential.

They've allowed 623 high danger chances and they've generated 531.

So that's like 92 more than them what they've given up.

Now you look at all those and you look at expected goals and that's just based on all these

different shot metrics and likely what should have happened based on the quality of shots

taken for and against the number of shots, attempts, high danger chances, etc.

And when it comes to expected goal differential, the Bruins rank 28th in the NHL at 5 on 5.

What that means in actual terms is they have an expected goals total of one, around 127

and a expected goals against of about 150.

So that's what 23 fewer goals expected than they have scored.

When it comes to actual goals though and this is where people will say well all that matters

is the actual goals and that's not wrong.

But right now the Bruins rank 7th in the NHL I should say in terms of goals for differential

at 5 on 5.

They've scored 138 and they've allowed 117.

Now compare that to the expected goals, right?

I said earlier they have their expected goals against is maybe I said 150, it's actually

for the Bruins it is 145.

So they've allowed 117 goals but the expected goals is 145.

So that's far fewer goals allowed than expected.

They've also have accrued an expected goal differential of, sorry, expected goals of 125.26

and they've actually scored 138.

So that is 13 more than expected and about 30 fewer than expected.

That's a pretty big gap in terms of what has been expected to happen based on all the

metrics that you look at versus what has actually happened.

If you look at the actual numbers again 13 more than expected and about 28 fewer than expected.

Why is that?

Well you look at the Bruins shooting percentage they rank 4th in the NHL in terms of shooting

percentage 5 on 5, 10.52 and they're safe percentage of 5 on 5 ranks 8th.

So they've been getting some pretty good as they say puck look both have 5 on 5 shooting

percentage and 5 on 5 safe percentage and for other criticism that Jeremy Swaman gets

it's pretty unwarranted because the Bruins have been kept afloat this season by goal

tending and yes that does include Unis Corbisalo who up until the last couple games have

been rock solid especially in 2026.

The Bruins are getting a huge boost by basically scoring way more goals than they should have

and it's reflected in their shooting percentage which ranks 5th or 4th at 5 on 5.

They're also allowing far fewer goals than what is expected based on the numbers and that's

a testament to the play of Jeremy Swaman and Unis Corbisalo.

Now if you add up the shooting percentage and the safe percentage at 5 on 5 you get a

number that's called PDO and that's basically yeah combining the shooting and safe percentages

and generally teams will average out around an even 100 and if you look right now the Columbus

Blue Jackets one of Boston's direct competitors they're at 100.4 and they're 16th in the NHL

the Maple Leafs on the other side at 997 and they are 17 so those are the teams right in

the middle and that is right around that 100 mark.

The Bruins are at 102 which means there is some possibility of regression coming here not

only in the goal tending and we saw that recently with Unis Corbisalo and I really do believe

that it should have been Jeremy Swaman getting the start in those more high pressure road situations

instead of Corbisalo who started against Nashville and against the Penguins on the road and pretty

much failed miserably. So the Bruins experience regression in terms of shooting percentage and

Morgan Geeky is a prime example of that shooting like 24% this season. That might fall back a

bit the offense might fall down and we'll see a leveling off of the expected goals versus the

actual goals and that could mean the Bruins are on the other side of things when it comes

to the scoreboard here down the stretch. So all that to say the Bruins A need to take fewer penalties

they need to continue this trend of improved penalty killing which again is top five since the

Olympic break only six game sample size would still they also need to allow for some of this

regression to come by controlling possession more getting the puck towards the net more creating more

high danger chances getting to the net getting some rebounds getting some ugly goals like in that

home plate area around the crease and continue to get that solid goal tending because if the shooting

drops off this team could really be in a bit of a pickle here as they look to clinch a playoff

spot. They'll have an opportunity to pick up two points against the team that played last night in the LA

Kings and that's a game we'll preview here as the podcast continues. College basketball is nonstop

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game. Hey everyone this is Ross Jackson one of the hosts of the Lockdown Podcast Network thank

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Bruins Kings tonight at TD Garden the Bruins will be looking to extend their home winning streak to

lucky on lucky 13 games and shout out to the NHL schedule makers for giving the Bruins a bit

of a break tonight as they will be facing a King's team that played last night against the Columbus

Blue Jackets we would have loved to have seen a King's regulation win unfortunately it was an

overtime decision the Blue Jackets picked up the point and they're now only two points behind the

Bruins in the race for that second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference the Ottawa senators

are creeping up as well they won last night they're only three points back in the Bruins the

capitals still lingering at five points back but they have played 65 games whereas the Bruins

Blue Jackets and senators have only played 63 so hopefully the Bruins can catch a Blue Jackets team

that is a bit tired and we will see Darcy Kemper in net there number one goalie he's a 15-13-9

record so far this season 8-96 point percentage which is actually not as good as what Anton

Forsberg brings to the table he's got a 903 save percentage but he played last night against Columbus

Jeremy Swammon should be the guy in net 24-13-3 with a 906 save

percentage and I believe his next win will tie a career high he set in 2023-24 of 25 games

or 25 wins I should say so nice bounce back season for Jeremy Swammon so far and he's got to

keep it going here down the stretch the Kings 36 and 1 over their past 10 games they have added

a couple players of course in Artemi Panarin Scott Lawton's been pretty good since he came over

from the Toronto Maple Leafs their leading score over the past five games is Adrian Kemper who's

got seven points four goals Brent Clark leading the way with four assists from the point they are

without one of their top players in Kevin Fiala who was injured of course at the Olympics but still

very deep with Panarin Kemper Quentin Bayfield on the Copa Tower still doing his thing

and this is a team who's scrapping for every point themselves over in the Western Conference

for the Bruins five points sorry four goals eight points for Pavel Zaka in his past five games

including that hat trick that was wasted the other day four goals four assists to lead the team

in both goals and assists over the past five games when it comes to special teams the Kings

pretty brutal on both ends they've got the 27th ranked power play the Bruins are up to fifth

on the power play and the Kings are one of a few teams whose penalty kill is worse than the Bruins

for the season they're at 28th the Bruins coming in here tonight at 25th the Kings are

scoring only two point six goals per game that's a big reason why they went out and got our

Tommy Panarin to help beef up the offense 29th ranked in that respect the Bruins are 10th

averaging 3.33 goals per game team defense for the Kings is a bit better though 2.92 which is 9th

the Bruins allowing 3.13 goals per game which is 18th the Kings right now are on the outside looking

of the playoff picture i mentioned yesterday that over in the Pacific division the number one

team is the Anaheim ducks at 73 points and 73 points puts you in 10th place in the Eastern

conference right now so there's three guaranteed playoff spots over on the Pacific point total wise

none of them would crack the top eight in the Eastern conference which shows you how bad that

division has been this season but also how the Kings could easily move up from where they sit

right now at 66 points on the outside looking in but jump up to second or third or even first

in the Pacific if they go on a bit of a run here so you know they're going to be desperate

for a couple more points after picking up two last night against or yesterday afternoon against

the the blue jackets it's the second and final meeting between these two teams this season

the Bruins won in overtime in LA back on November 21st Morgan Yiki with two goals in that one

including the overtime game winner and the goalie for the Bruins in that one was Jeremy

who made 31 saves on 32 shots they're going to need him to be in fine form here at this evening

in terms of scoreboard watching you've got the Canadians and Maple Leafs playing tonight the Bruins

are only two points back of the Canadians for the first wild card spot forth in the Atlantic

the Canadians do have a game in hand the Bruins are three points back of Detroit for third in the

Atlantic and they've got a game in hand on them and the Red Wings are playing a Panthers team

tonight that kind of out of it but still looking to play spoiler a little bit a Brad Martian

out weeks for them likely you know they're likely going to be kind of trying to do what the Bruins

did last season which is maximize their draft pick in kind of a lost season here they will not be

defending their title as a playoff team most likely well it's got the blue jackets taken on the

lightning and any other games that are relevant blues islanders penguins hurricanes it's a pretty

busy night tonight with 13 games around the NHL and lots to keep an eye on maybe today on the

bonus podcast will bring you all the latest in terms of what to watch out for tonight lineup changes

for the Bruins if there are any as well as uh yeah just all the latest on this team I'm seeing

this morning Lucas Reiko has arrived in Providence he's skating with Matt Potra and Georgie Mirkylove

so that's something to keep an eye on as well down the stretch here in terms of uh the Providence

players guys who could be called up or what their playoff outlook is going to be as well

expect to tight ones tonight Bruins again needed overtime to beat the Kings last time in LA one of

their few road wins and how do I not even talk about road records when it comes to those stats

obviously that's a huge stat that needs to improve as well for the Bruins we'll talk about that

more I guess it wasn't on my mind because they're at home tonight but that road record certainly needs

to change as well 11 14 and 5 and you simply cannot be that bad on the road and expect to be a playoff

team and succeed once you get there especially as a lower seed they'll hit the road again this weekend

when they go to Washington a couple games next week so we'll focus more on that road

woe is again as that comes up that's it for now for locked on Boston Bruins thank you so much

for taking the time to listen thank you for subscribing on your favorite podcast app and on

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