Are the Buffalo Sabres Playoff Locks? + Blue Jackets Surge & Nick Schmaltz's Huge Extension

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The Buffalo Sabers are up to fifth in the entire NHL.

The Columbus Blue Jackets are making a late push for a playoff spot, and Nick Schmaltz

got himself paid.

You're Lockdown NHL, your daily podcast on the National Hockey League.

Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

Hello everyone and welcome to this Thursday edition of Lockdown NHL.

I am Nick Zarrars, the host of Lockdown Oilers.

It is my good friend and one of the co-hosts of Lockdown Penguins Hunter hoodies and we

want to thank everyone that is making Lockdown NHL their first listen of the day, Lockdown

NHL is a part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, the number one streamed podcast network.

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So on today's show, we're going to bounce around three topics as per usual.

We're going to start out talking about the miraculous Buffalo Sabers, the surge they've

been on since the GM change, what their odds look like big picture, some of the big improvements

year over year and some of the individual performances that are really driving this

performance this year, the team's performance this year and our second segment will dive

into whether or not the Blue Jackets under Rick bonus can make this late push and leapfrog

their way back into a playoff spot after being in last place in the entire Eastern conference

the day they hired Rick bonus and then we'll tie a bow on today's show, Discussing

Mitch Malts' extension with the Utah mammoths, what it means for the market this summer and

players in general.

So to start out, coming into the year, Buffalo was in the category of teams with Ottawa

with Detroit where we thought if things broke right for them, they could be in the mix

for a playoff spot that very similar to what we saw from Ottawa last year after a long

dormant layoff, you things break right for you around you, you get reasonable divisional

alignment, you get in and Ottawa got into the playoffs as a wild card.

They played pretty well at even strength against Toronto in the first round, but ultimately

bowed out in six games.

What we're watching in Buffalo is a little bit different.

This is not a team backdoring into one of the last playoff spots in a week east, you

know, if you remember last year, Montreal and Ottawa were pretty low in the pecking order

as far as the teams to get into the postseason coming from that division.

Buffalo is in fifth place in the entire NHL right now and the underlying numbers are interesting,

but more than anything, I really think it's a testament to the power of morale because

for so long, that has been a dead endormant team.

We've been waiting for an explosion from and they got their igniting moment and a lot

of guys on this team have are talented, you know, that's never been the knock against

the Sabers.

They have had talent here for quite a while.

They've picked in the top 10 for quite a while.

They've accumulated interesting pieces and it's starting to come together now and we

can discuss the merits and we will in the segment of this team as a contender.

Can they challenge Tampa Bay?

Can they be Carolina?

More than anything, you just kind of have to feel a moment of relief for not only the

guys on that team, but for a fan base that feels like it's probably gone crazy at this

point where they look at the roster on paper every single year and say to themselves,

how are we not in the playoffs?

Well, it looks like your prayers have been heard.

Right.

I mean, for the Sabers, I have them as one of the three playoff locks right now in the

Eastern Conference.

I feel confident saying that today Nick on March 12th, this is a playoff lock.

They are breaking their curse this year.

They are getting into the playoffs and this team is a ton of fun to watch.

They play the penguins the last week in Pittsburgh and outside of the guinea malking, just

being a complete moron and slashing Rasmus dolly in in the head.

He got crushed a couple of times, which is like, okay, man, you don't get to whack your

stick at his face.

I just don't understand what he was doing outside of that Buffalo was just so impressive

in that game.

The way that they come at you and waves, the way they play defensively, their goal tending

has been great all year.

Alex Lyon has been the quote unquote savior for them at times.

Hugo Pechaluchin, when he's been healthy, has also been really good.

And you and I on the show, you know, we kind of clowned the Sabers a little bit for bringing

back Lindy Ruff.

He's done such a great job behind the bench tech.

We have to be real.

He has done a great job with that team.

And also, ever since they've made that GM change, it's really been like the GM bump.

Usually a lot of times you see the head coach bump.

It's been the GM bump where they have been a completely different team since basically

the start of December, where they have just taken the league by storm.

And I watched a lot of that game against Tampa Bay or the weekend.

That was probably the game of the year so far.

The way those two teams were just trading blows with one another.

The way you saw Brandon Hagle just going after Raspberries, darling, there was a fight

basically every other shift.

But what impressed me the most was the way that Buffalo came back in that game.

They showed to Tampa, at least to me, this is my opinion.

We can play with you guys and we can beat you.

Like yeah, Tampa Bay, they've been the bullies in the East before, before Florida, you

know, punch back and they became, you know, on the same hike as for while it was big brother,

little brother.

Now they were on the same height.

Now the Sabers, they're trying to send a message saying like, hey, we know that Tampa Bay

has been great this year.

Don't forget about us.

And I want to see seven games between those two teams in the playoffs because I think

they might kill each other by the end of that series.

The Sabers have just been an absolute wagon.

Dahlene has played like a top five defenseman in the world.

Cage Thompson is playing just on another level.

Josh Don, I think has also had a really good year.

Alex Tuck.

I've got some Josh Dones.

Thanks for you.

So I'm excited to share.

Yes.

I'm going to get there in a second.

Alex Tuck is going to get a lot of cash this off season.

Jason Zucker from a penguin, of course, has another 20 goal season.

Everyone fits their role so well on this team.

They're well coached.

They defend well.

They get good goal tending and their five on five numbers, at least offense wise have

been solid.

Like this, this team is just mowing through everyone.

And I can't wait to see Buffalo rockin for the playoffs.

Like there was a couple of videos that I saw after that Tampa game.

You should have seen the scenes outside of the arena and even inside the arena, everyone

is going crazy.

So it's been the bills town for a while now, Nick.

Don't forget when the Sabers are good.

That's a hockey town too.

They had Chad Michael Murray at a regular season game on a weekday banging the drum before

the game.

The Sabers got some motion again.

So some stats for you.

Last year, 482 points percentage this year, 662, an 18% jump in points percentage.

It's the biggest jump of any team in the league this year, this year so far.

You know, the math could change over the course of the final months, but the biggest jump

so far.

It's taken advantage of the fact that Florida, Toronto, Ottawa, the Devils and the Rangers

have all underperformed expectations.

They have a higher share of high danger chances and expected goals than last year.

They have a higher rate of expected goals and high danger chances.

They are creating off and set a very dangerous clip.

Their team save percentage at a even strength is 11% better than last year.

That jump from a very dinged up goalie room last year where you had Pechaluchin and you

had spurts of Devon Levy.

This year, Alex Lyon, who again was an unrestricted

free agent that any team in the league could have signed, got basically nothing money wise

and has been a starting caliber goalie for a close to league minimum.

And then you go even deeper.

I was talking about Josh Dome before amongst all forwards in the NHL, 33rd and scoring

chances per game, 33rd and goals for per game, 21st and expected goals for per game of all

forwards in the entire NHL.

That's not, that's a little crazy for someone who's a middle six tweener who doesn't

get full time first line minutes all of the time, but you have to be blown away by what

you've seen from a guy who's third NHL season of serious NHL regular time.

And then I mentioned Alex Lyon before this year, 913, 265 goals against 26 goals saved

above expected, which is seventh compared that to last year.

UPL 897 save percentage all situations, 3.2 goals against and then a negative eight goals

saved above expected last year, just a night in day difference.

And some of that is vibes, you know, if the team around you's playing a little bit better,

the defense is a little bit tighter.

The goal-tending responsibility isn't as serious so the goal is able to build some confidence

in themselves.

And I really do think the sabers are a great testament to what a good mindset and just

of morale change can do.

This isn't a fundamentally different team than it was prior to firing Kevin Adams and

hiring YARMO, but it's worked out.

And the shot in the arm they've had over the last two months is nothing short of remarkable.

And I am ecstatic for this group.

And we talked about this last week, just there's some new blood in the mix, you know, it's

going to be the first time in a while for some of these teams to make the playoffs.

That's good for the league that we're going through life cycles and teams are finally

starting to fade and new ones are finally starting to emerge.

I agree with you.

And it was funny still when I was watching that game against Tampa for a while, Nick,

it felt like Tampa was trying to send a message like, Hey, I know you guys are good, but

it's still our time in this conference.

Like we're the veteran team we've been here before.

You guys haven't, but the way that Buffalo was able to respond and basically clap back

saying like, Hey, we not only can play with you, we can beat you, it just that's a big

message, I think going into the playoffs, like if we get this playoff series, you'll

just the way that Buffalo fought back in that game, I think that can just do really big

dividends.

And yeah, I know playoff hockey, it's different from regular season hockey.

But this is a Buffalo team that show that they can beat Tampa, they have all the confidence

in the world right now.

And, you know, when you're also as well coached as they are, that goes a long way.

And look at the way the fans are behind this team.

There's on an empty seat in that house on any given night.

It's awesome to see and I am so happy for their fans, so happy for their organization.

It's going to be awesome seeing the ratings for the playoffs this year.

Now that they're back in it, because even when they're not in it, usually Buffalo's in

a top 10 for cities that watch pile hockey, it's going to be for me top three.

If I had to guess maybe even number one, just with the fan support that they have.

So I'm glad that you brought up those stats to the show, but I am just having a blast

watching this team.

They are awesome.

We're going to take our first break on today's edition of Locked on NHL when we come

back.

We will dive into speaking of bumps, the new coach bump, the blue jackets are experiencing

whether or not it's going to be enough to get them into a playoff spot right after

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Hunter, the Blue Jackets are a team that massively overachieved last year.

One of the great stories in the league, Zach Orensky,

Norris Trophy Finalist, Sean Monahan,

the 20 goal season coming off of the serious injuries,

all against the backdrop of the Johnny Gidro loss,

and you think about where they were two months ago.

You know, they fire, they change coaches on January 12th.

They're 19, 19, and 7.

They're dead last in the Eastern Conference on January 12th

when they make this coaching change.

They fire Dean Everson.

Underrick bonus, they're 14, 2, and 3 since the change,

and they are surging.

They are very much in the mix.

There are only a couple points back in that last playoffs spot,

and it's not out of the question that if the islanders

or penguins have a bit of a funkier,

they get in the mix for one of the Metro wild card spots as well.

But I think we talk about this a lot.

The idea, the new coach bump is a short-term solution to a long-term problem.

The question now for me about Columbus,

beyond just getting in the playoffs,

which would be nice for them, they haven't been,

and the full playoffs in a long time,

dating back to 2019 when they are upset Tampa Bay,

where do they go from here?

Because this is a team we keep waiting for,

the Adam Fantilles of the world,

the Johnston's of the world,

to make that leap.

Because Werenzki has really solidified himself

as one of the five or 10 best defensemen in the world.

Carill Marchenko, every time I see him play in person,

I am blown away that more people don't talk about him.

They have seemingly found a passable goal-tending solution

with Jack Greaves.

And they are now a team that we're waiting to see just how good they can be.

Then we can start wish-casting guys there.

Then we can start, you know, like last week on the show,

when we were trying to get Robert Thomas to the Sabers,

or the Canadians, or the Hurricanes.

If the Blue Jackets are going to be serious,

they're going to make the playoffs here.

This summer, we can talk about, well,

maybe they make a push for Vinnie Troszek.

Maybe they make a push for Robert Thomas,

and they try and say,

we're ready to go now if the rest of this year goes the way it could.

I do think that makes sense.

And I will say, yeah, they did make it in 2018-19.

They did make it in 1920 for COVID as well.

They did get in the first round against Tampa Bay.

I will say that now.

They lost in five games.

I just wanted to throw that out there before,

potentially a few Blue Jackets fans come and attack us.

I just want to put that out there.

They have no one big player.

Yes, they have not made the playoffs since.

So you're correct on that aspect.

But this Blue Jackets team, you know, it's funny.

I didn't think Rick Bonus would ever come back to coaching.

I thought he was totally fine.

Being retired, he goes, hey, this is the right situation.

I'm going to come out of retirement for it.

And outside of a few games where they are giving up,

you know, some leaves, too many goals.

They are playing overall Nick better defensively under him

than they were under Dean Everson.

And that's expected.

Rick Bonus is a defensive head coach.

You saw Nick when he was in Winnipeg, for example.

Those teams, very defensive oriented.

They were very good at suppressing chances.

Now offensively, that's where I feel like

some of their teams ran into problems

where they couldn't generate as much

against some of the other top teams of league.

But overall, he has been a very good defensive head coach

throughout his tenure.

And I think he has helped that aspect in Columbus.

Another thing with Columbus,

I think they're goal-tening this year,

especially Jack Greaves.

He's been really good this year.

20 wins in 41 starts.

907, say, percentage 2.69 goals against average.

He has been above average this year.

Even Elvis, Merz Leakins, he's at 84.

I think he's been a little bit better as of late.

So that's keeping them in games.

But their high end talent has been really good.

I mean, we discussed Nick Zach Rensky last year.

I mean, he's one of the Norse favorites right now, in my opinion.

I think if you had to give a player in the Norse trophy right now,

I would probably vote for Rensky

and considering what he is doing this year.

20 goals, 68 points and 57 games.

And again, I'm not trying to disrespect any of the other defensemen.

But Rensky is doing it all for this Blue Jackets team in all three zones.

He's elite defensively.

He carries the puck in at will.

He generates a lot of offense.

He is elite on the back end.

I can't watch him enough this year.

Karel Marchenko, he's closing in on a 30 goals season.

He has been really good.

Got them a point earlier this week against the Kings.

When it looked like the Blue Jackets were not going to get any points

out of that game.

Trolley Coil is having a good year.

Fantilly is getting a bit better.

They're putting Varongkov back into line up.

So this team, I like a lot of their young forwards.

Defensely, Werenzky, obviously, he's great.

I still think they need a little bit more up front,

but that's more of an offseason thing.

But they're playing great right now.

And my biggest question with Columbus is,

are they running out of runway still too quickly?

Because they are very hot.

But the thing is, Nick, it's hard to make up ground

this time of year when the teams in front of you

are still getting a looser point.

For example, like the penguins,

they have been without Sidney Crosby for eight games.

They have points in six of those eight games.

Three of them are over time losses,

but it's hard to catch a team like that

that is still getting a point at least on a nightly basis.

The islanders have also been really hot as of late.

Now, we have to see if a team like the Red Wings Falters

because Dylan Larkin is out for at least the next two weeks.

Andrew Cop is the same.

Boston is still chugging along,

and they're very much in the race.

But Columbus, they at least have a chance.

They are in the race after it felt like they were left for dead

earlier this season.

My biggest question though,

do they have enough to get in just considering

how hard it is to make up ground this time of year?

Because it is.

It's really difficult.

So I have the math worked out on the next page of my notes here.

So right now, they're sitting at a 594 points percentage,

which would finish them with 97 standings points overall.

Boston is on pace for 100.

Detroit is on pace for 100.

So they're going to need to make up a 3 point deficit.

And we'll say the target number with those averages is 100 points.

100 points isn't a lock you get in.

There's a very real chance we see a team with 100 points

in the East not get in at all,

which would be crazy in spite of where we think the East is at.

We've seen Walker a while recently, Nick,

where you need like 92, 94 is point.

Yeah, it's different.

Montreal got 90 last year.

Montreal is really in last year.

And you know, and I know we've said on the show that the East overall,

it's still, you know, it's the West is really top heavy.

The West stinks this year.

I'll say that like the Pacific division is actually awful.

But, you know, the East, I would still say it's better than the West.

Even though I don't think it's, you know,

you know, as good as it has been in recent years,

but the West is just absolutely terrible this year.

I think it depends what you want.

So real quick, real quick.

They have 18 regular season games left.

That means they need to get something in the ballpark

of 24 points, 25 points over their final,

over their final pocket of 18 games,

which is crazy.

18 24 points in that window is not impossible.

You're going to need to probably win 12 or 13 of your final 18 regular season games,

which for a team like Columbus,

that's been really hot as of late.

Is it impossible?

Is it going to be tricky to sustain that high of a level for an extended period of time

for basically three straight months?

Yeah.

They don't stop at them to third hardest schedule to end the season.

Like Pittsburgh is number one.

Columbus is two or three.

It's a tough schedule to end the year,

but they've ever played one of the advantages of the way the schedule is set up

for a majority of these teams is you're going to have a lot of four point games down the stretch.

You're going to have two or three of those pretty much every other week for the rest of the way.

Once we get into the end of March early April,

where it seems like we're only playing division opponents.

And those are your opportunities when you're Columbus.

If you're playing one of the teams that's directly ahead of you,

those four point swings,

especially in this loser-point environment,

are really essential.

We're going to take our second final break on today's edition of Lockdown in HL.

We'll come back.

We'll dive into the Nick Schmaltz extension.

What it means for Utah?

What it means for Schmaltz?

What it means for players?

Because I don't think there's anybody going to be on free agency on July 1st,

other than Hunter or I.

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Thank you so much to everybody that is hanging out on this Thursday edition of Lockdown NHL

with Hunter and I making it their first listen of the day.

And Nick Schmaltz was somebody that we had at least surmised similarly to Alex Tuck

could be there on July 1st.

Somebody who, depending on how the season played out,

depending how competitive the team was,

maybe they get traded at the deadline,

maybe they go right into July 1st and see Schmaltz opted to stay.

And we have seen Utah more than willing to doll out money in the early phases of that

in the new ownership group in the new city.

And they are putting together a really interesting team.

I think they're a team that very much has a chance to qualify for the post season.

They're in a playoff spot right now.

I would give them a puncher's chance against whoever wins the Pacific.

I wouldn't really against the avalanche,

but that's a different conversation for a show later down the road.

For me, this is an interesting one.

At 30 years old, he's well on pace to have a career year,

eight years, eight million dollars.

And the sticker shock of that is still real.

I know we're in a different salary cap environment now

and the going rate for points has gone up.

And it's weird to say that because you would think,

well, if there's more money in the system,

that would depress the wages, wouldn't it?

If there's more money to throw around at guys,

wouldn't teams be more conservative in their allocation?

But no, everyone's just putting stuff on their credit cards now.

Everybody is just putting money into the future.

Eight years, eight million dollars for a guy whose career high in points is 60 something.

Seems crazy to me.

We're not far removed from guys like Nathan McKinnon

being under contract for six million dollars.

I know that's a restricted free agent deal

that was signed really long early in McKinnon's career.

And it aged nicely.

But you think about what that says about where we're going, price is wise.

And that's, I think, my biggest takeaway.

Schmultz is a really good player.

He started out of the gate really hot,

like 15, 16 points in the first 10 games.

Really looked to be blowing up fringe consideration for the US Olympic team.

And he's having a really fun year.

He gets to play with Clayton Keller and JJ Paterco.

That's a really fun unit to watch on a really fun team.

And we'll see, we'll see as far as Utah goes.

But if you're Utah and you have money to burn

and you think you're relatively close, I get it.

Yeah, I probably wouldn't have done this.

If I was Utah, if I was Bill Armstrong,

but I get why they did this.

Yeah, I get it as well.

I mean, they're trying to make the playoffs this year.

I had them as a playoffs team going into this year.

I really like the young talent that they have.

I like their defensive group as well.

And I felt that they could just get average goal

to name for this year.

I think they'd be fine.

And so far, they are a playoffs team.

And I do think they're going to finish this off.

And I do think they get it.

It's an interesting gamble.

He's already set a career high in goals.

He's eight assists away from tying his career high in assists

or last year when he finished with 43.

He finished last year with 63 points.

That he's already at 59 this year.

63 points is the most from his career so far.

He is going to break that pretty easily this year.

I think he's going to finish with 70 plus points.

So he's riding the career gear bender

to get that big extension.

It's funny.

If we were, you know, two, three years ago,

I would have probably been like,

ooh, that's definitely a really big overpay.

I think right now it's a slight overpay

that has a chance to look really good

if he continues some really solid production

into his early to mid 30s.

Because, you know, does he finish that contract with Utah?

Time will tell overall.

But I understand why they made that bet.

I understand why they didn't want to let him go.

Just considering when you look at the free agent market this year,

it's not very good.

Maybe they didn't want to, you know, bet on the trade market.

Because right now you don't fully know

all the players are going to be on the trade market

that you could have out there to replace him.

So I think they're just like, hey,

we have a player who we know is still going to be good for a bit.

Let's just get this done here, get them off the market.

We got money to burn and let's get this done.

And it felt like when I was listening to 32 thoughts

that term had been a bit of a sticking point.

And, you know, this is just me guessing.

Maybe Utah just, you know, cave to him on term.

And they said, hey, all right, we'll walk you up

until, you know, you're in your late 30s here.

But, you know, again, if this were a few years ago,

I really not like it.

But now with the cap especially going up,

I don't think it's going to be as bad

unless he just really falls off a cliff or something like that.

But another takeaway I have, Nick, what does mean for Alex Tuck?

Because I think he's going to get quite a big payday this summer.

If it's not, it's going to be someone else.

We've heard that at least in the early stages

of that bargaining back in December or January,

was he was looking at the campaign number

and campaign's got a crazy number.

Like what's campaign at like 12 something,

which feels ludicrous for a guy who's a second line winger.

But if everybody has money, you just throw it.

You know, that's the thing.

It's grocery shopping hungry.

And we'll see over time,

if everybody having money makes free agency better or worse,

I think there's a strong argument.

It's going to make it worse.

Because everyone's just going to lock six to five million.

So a little on 10.6.

Yeah, 10.6 going forward.

So if everybody has money

and everybody locks up their pending UFA's,

all free agency is at that point is third and fourth liners.

It's depth guys.

And those guys are already the ones who get massively overpaid

because they're they're getting signed to play bigger roles

on lower on worse teams usually.

And it creates a very weird system.

You know, we've seen a new economy

develop in baseball to the point that there's probably

going to be a labor stoppage next year

because the economics of the sport have gotten so out of whack

between the bottom and in the high end.

And it's largely gotten rid of the mid level player.

A lot of teams in baseball and we see this in football as well

where teams would rather pay for someone who's either

at the best of the best at the highest end of the

salary scale or they'd rather have a rookie in that spot

and say we'll let them play their way into a bigger role,

grow into it and get better over time.

The mid tier guy, the average player,

they don't have a lot of life span in baseball or football anymore

just because the economics of having that type of guy on your roster

don't really make sense.

And we'll see if hockey gets there.

But and I think we'll know very quickly

based on how the next wave of big contracts go out.

I think the first real one that'll tell the tale is the

Quinn Hughes one that'll get agreed to next year.

And I think there's a good chance

Quinn uses the first 20 million dollar a year player

if everything goes the way I think it will over the next two years.

And what that means is, well, if we're paying the top end

of the roster 20, 22, you know, 25,

it's not out of the question three years from now

when McDavid's a free agent his for his deal was 25 million a year

based on where the economics of things are going.

And what does that do?

Well, if we're paying one guy 25 million,

we got to trim the fat in the middle of the roster

because we can't afford those five six seven million dollar

year players.

And I think that's the long term recourse of this.

And I think if you're a player, I understand why you want that

eight year term right now because the economics of the league

have a chance to change under foot really fast.

And you want to be secure.

And I entirely get why guys go for term, you know,

it's not my money.

If I were an agent, I would have told him go to July 1st

get as much money as you possibly could

from whoever's going to give it to you.

You know, do you really want to live in Toronto and play on a

six place Leafs team?

Not really, but they're going to have 30 million and cap

space to burn this summer.

And you could have taken a lot of that money.

So we'll see, you know, the economics of this are

infinitely interesting in comparison to what I mean,

all we're going to have to talk about on July 1st is,

is if getting Malkin going to play another year or not,

is John Carlson going to stay in Anaheim?

You know, it's going to be really slim pickings come July 1st.

Is Alex Ovechkin retiring or is he coming back to Washington for another year?

Yeah, it's that's the way the market is going.

And that's why I think you might see more bigger trades this summer.

I think you're going to see teams try to go after players with a little bit more

term maybe at cap hits that they like a bit more just because they don't like

them way the the free agent market is going.

So I can really see the trade market heating up this summer in a big way.

That's the hope, you mean, that's the because that's really the only

recourse because if there's this limited to player movement,

the trade market is really going to be your only way to make to find your

solutions because free agency looks like a dud at this point because everybody has money now.

So that'll do it for this Thursday edition of Lockdown NHL.

Thank you so much to everybody that listened to today's show,

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Hunter and I will see you guys next Thursday.