Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 Final Bets, One & Done | Insights From The Course | Final Word

coming up on the Pat Mayo

the final word for Bayhil

who sitting next to me li

so Phi Center, I do want

not only to smash the like

of the newsletters, up a

smash like some of the c

stuff. There is some boom

us for like five minutes

the show. It goes away a

if you can't hear us, you

again, but obviously you

you need in the newsletter

Let's start the show at

experience.

Welcome to the Pat Mayo

from the so Phi Center. I'm

we've never done a show

not in person. That's for

the line.com. You get the

to join Keith's newsletter

I did. I did. I figured

up. I thought you might

how about congratulations

Keith. Congratulations on

Pat. But like that kind of

Nico is what half of what

when it came to smother

on his top three. So it

a lot of new people are w

we found out. So are you

losers this week? I have

going to lose. Hey, you

I'm here to tell you about

a couple of picks. I think

that's what it's all about

at the same time. I mean, we

we got stuff behind us here.

We got a road with the robot

cam is on the move here on

the TGL green. I mean, that

could be part of this shot.

I'm just not sure yet. I don't

know if it's down. It's kind

of freaking me out. Are we

moving or is the ground moving?

Oh, the ground's moving. Oh,

yeah, the greens move it.

That's it. So here we go. All

right. Tell me about Bay Hill.

Bay Hill near and dear to my

heart. I spent my formate

years as a golf professional

in Orlando across the lakes

in the way. We got my

career. I was on the

28th of 2003. I played Bay

Hill, a zillion times and

shoot out at lunchtime. But

you're, but your best score

my best score over there.

Oh, it's tough golf course.

Exactly. No, no. I'm to say

79, 717, 1 really like just

done. Just even without the

setup, the thing I got going

on is that tough. Yeah. It's

just long. Ah, it's just,

it's just brutally hard. It

over in Terrap, Iowa, but, uh, golly, you can tear up like no to some of the other courses

in town, but that course in particular, it just really, really tests that mid-iron, well,

it's mid-iron for Victor Havelin, it's long iron for you and I, you're up in fives and

hybrids and that.

Yeah, all the time.

And, um, and the one thing is about Bay Hill, and this will come up, but it's extremely

redundant as a design, and what I mean by that is that most people don't, don't look at

a golf course the way I do with like my PGA eyes, but there's so many holes there that basically

are the same hole.

It's almost like a template.

So you think about the third hole, it's just a dog leg left around a pond, very similar

to the eleventh hole, a dog leg left around a pond or number six, a super long dog leg

left around a pond.

Or, you know, three goes into four, so four is a pill par five, eleven is that dog leg

left around a pond, twelve is an uphill par, par five, and then you come back down with

a short par four.

That same set of three holes happens on both nights, um, you know, like a big dog leg

right off the tee.

Well, that's a let, uh, that's ten and fifteen.

So, you know, the par three is the really hard downhill, two hundred twenty plus yard

ones, two and seventeen.

So what I always found at Bay Hill is that if there was a certain hole I struggled on, I

was going to struggle multiple times that day.

So that's why I also believed that Tiger one there eight times, because the one thing

he could do is he could separate with his long iron play.

So that's what you needed to do there in two thousand, it's now mid-iron play, but you

get the point.

So what we should be doing is like we've been looking at the best long iron players in

the field.

Yeah.

So my guy Alex Nordens is going to win.

He's a game.

We're done.

We're done here.

Grab it up, Tyler.

We're all set.

Um, you know, one key thing about Alex Nord, I would say, uh, that he's packing along

in his, in his travel luggage is the around the geek, the, the around the green

acumen, right?

And, and that's going to be key this week because I've talked to a bunch of people up

there.

There's still people that I know work on the property.

There's people that work across the lake and I've asked, you know, I was like, how's

your weather been and the place is a brick.

It's, it's like this table.

It's a brick.

It's, it's going to be a fiery bay hill.

And what most people don't understand and I wrote about this in the newsletter is that when

you look at bay hill, yes, you see the, the lakes that they, they hit shots around

and whatever.

But there's a series of lakes called the Butler chain of lakes and they're massive.

And they, they surround the property as a whole.

So the wind of there in central Florida, can pick up in the afternoon and we're going

to see, we're going to see a lot of action.

I know it's a limited field.

We'll get deep evening, but that, that like three to five o'clock range is got, is

got to be excited because the bay hill balance is going to be in play.

So when I looked at the first round leaders, I think weirdly enough, I think they were all

PM guys from the past three years, which is interesting.

Well, it doesn't make them more score.

Like, can you get more run out on your drives when it starts to get like, if it gets windier

and it's already firm, can the wind just start to help you at some point?

Once you get deeper into the round earlier in the round, whatever it might be, like, I

didn't know that for, I think it was two years ago now.

We had a single whole problem.

That was on 16.

It was birdie or better on 16 and they're all paying even money.

But that day, everything was downwind.

They were even giving you like a nine times multiplier on eagles.

And guys were making eagles that day because you were with the wind on 16, which is everyone

dumbied the whole.

But if it was in your face, I would assume it would be pretty difficult.

Well, the, the predominant wind there is 16 down, 17, 18 in, which you would think would

Dick Wilson designed it should have been the other way around because 16 is the reachable

par five at five or 10 yards down hill.

And they have you ever been to the hill?

Nope.

So that T box is a peninsula that's already out in the lake on 18.

So they can't go any further.

It's literally on the back of the T box.

They'd have to build more land to make it longer.

It's 500.

It's a 510 yard par five.

Why don't they just buy the town like you guessed a national and then they can move all

the T boxes they want?

I mean, if already was still alive, they probably would own the town, you know, but

actually, I know that I take that back.

The mouse owns the town.

They're not buying it from them.

So let's see.

Yeah, last year, Wyndham Clark was the first round leader, 67 PM wave, Lowry the year before

that PM wave, Ron the year before that PM wave, then Rory in the morning and every one

of the morning went out and dominated.

When you say PM wave, well, it was different than, I mean, last year, I guess would be

a little bit different.

I guess the let the second half of guys on the course is what I'm calling the PM wave

this week.

They might have started 11 a.m.

I have no idea.

So like when it used to be, you know, a full field tournament and those guys that went

off at one o'clock, they would just get, they would just get beat up.

They would get destroyed.

Is that why we've seen so many chasers do well on Sundays here, like start five groups

back and these other guys are just left on the course playing late.

They can't do anything.

But hopefully this year, Nikolai Oygar goes shoots eight under like the mullinari year

over the, even the Rory year when he just couldn't miss on the greens, just firmly

comes to mind that chasers do well here all the time.

They absolutely do.

And the course just gets fire and fire and fire and that, of course, there's a little

bit of pressure in play and that people start to think about whether it's Jack's place

or Tigers event or now Arnie's event, right, earning that red sweater carries a little

more weight than when in the C.J. cup.

How dare you?

Okay.

How dare you?

Magic.

Magic.

The American Express?

There you go.

Is that better?

I don't know.

You can get, she cans with like a mummified Bob Hope.

Is that what you get there?

I think you probably get the American Express CEO.

Do you get like a bloody start with dance or what I guess they probably all have black

cards anyway?

They probably get rid of the CEO chatter on the, or Ali, if you're going to have to have

the CEO of cognizant come out, or I guess it would be master card this week, can we

get an actor to play these people?

So at least maybe like hire an actor who can speak on both on master card and golf.

So it's not like, what are we doing here for 10 minutes?

I'm just going to go back to the beginning of this, this little conversation, I guess

what are we doing here for 10 minutes?

I mean, there's going to be more playing through that when they're having that conversation

meaning that the CEO conversation should be in the small box muted while we get the

golf live in front of us.

Listen, you're going to have the, I don't need, if you have it on the screen and you

show the names, I know what's going on.

You can let Mr. Mastercard talk for 25 minutes.

I can watch what's going on.

I just need to see the shots.

I mean, you're preaching the choir.

There was a controversy from the Monday show, I'm sorry, because I was very upset about

Castileo last week.

Okay.

Now, apparently that's how his grandma said that you pronounce his name.

So that's how he pronounces his name, although it is not spelled like that whatsoever.

So that is the final, final word on that.

You have the final word on Bay Hill, the course.

I had the final word on the pronunciation guy to Ricky, Ricky, how steleo or something

like that.

No one in the world pronounces it this way.

I mean, I'm New Jersey born in rage, so I'm going to butcher that.

Still.

You know, I mean, it's either way, I mean, when you start saying like Castileo, now it

sounds like an Italian, not Spanish.

Right?

Like I said, so now in New Jersey, New Jersey, New Jersey, New Jersey, New Jersey.

New Jersey, New Jersey, New Jersey.

I heard it in my heart.

Yeah, for sure.

I mean, is he still wearing the shell necklace?

Yeah.

It's a good look.

I mean, John Pack to come back to two diamond studs.

That was very close to my heart.

Oh, John Pack, Jersey Kid, Scotch Flanes, New Jersey.

Love.

Yeah.

It's now.

I mean, come on.

Why couldn't it have been John Pack instead of Chris Goddard?

I'd much prefer John Pack.

So at the 2016 US junior, it was played at the honors course, which is just outside

Chattanooga, Tennessee.

And the honors is Pete Daikors, just, it just massacres golfers, right?

So it's 2016.

So you can imagine how old John Pack is at that point.

There's a student of mine there.

So I walk around and I knew John from my New Jersey coaching days.

And I see him and he's the only kid wearing pants.

And I'm like, John, we're, I mean, we're

Tennessee.

It's the US junior.

It's July.

So I'm like, John, what are you doing?

And he's like, I'm going to be playing a pants someday.

I might as well start now.

That's a good for you, man.

Good for you.

I guess what?

He made it, you know?

Did he win that week?

Or did he, like, have to be carted off due to heat exhaustion?

He made it into match play.

He made a good show.

He made a good show.

He couldn't have played on live.

Yeah.

Probably a good option for him.

He would fit right in over there.

He would double studs.

Well, he would be a kid.

Well, the PG needs characters.

He's a character.

What's going on?

So we can get in the Zurich.

We can get he and Rico with double studs as one team, OK?

And then the other team can be like 10, like a decade ago,

Ricky, when he wore the Puke shells,

with modern day Ricky Castillo, if you'd

have Ricky and Ricky Shells.

I mean, Ricky Fowler with Ricky Shell.

That's what I was saying, Ricky Shells.

I mean, he's like, he's still as skinny as like,

Ricky Castillo's like, skinny as man.

He's getting here in the auction.

I don't.

Actually, it was here the other night.

Actually, he's pretty thin.

He's the thin man.

What would you put his, like, if I

gave you 27 and a half over under waist size?

What would you take?

Under.

Wow.

So a couple of years ago, it was at Bay Hill.

And I'm walking with a group.

And it's a two-some because it's signature event.

And it's Willie Zee and Midmoo Lee.

And I guarantee you that the combined waist size

in that group was under 60.

I would have bet the farm on that.

So they would have been competing for the WCW cruiser weight

tag team titles, what you're saying.

They're not taking on earthquake and typhoon.

No, whatever the like, the 115 pound weight class was.

And now there's two guys pound for pound at will

when Willie Zee was healthy that could smoke it.

So they're putting on this driving display.

And like, just the tightest waist in the world.

And it's just like, you're just walking along.

I'm going to watch another group.

Best players from 150 to 200 yards this week.

Hotland?

So far in this season.

Hotland fits Gerard, Seewoo, Novak, still.

Rory Fowler, Kinayama, Harris, English,

Adam Scott, Harry Hall up there as well.

Harry Hall still playing off.

Well, Harry Hall still plays, not well.

But he actually made the short list guy.

I created in the rabbit hole, a spike model.

So you can see it in there.

Spike round performance.

And he pops up on it, really enough.

Because it was putting it.

Well, it's a first round leader model.

I'm like, what do you need to do to achieve being first round?

This is how I ended up on Smotherman and Kevin Roy last week.

And they're both like, and Zach Baushu,

who just pops up there every week.

And now it's going to be my main man, Old Yella.

He's playing in Puerto Rico, though.

Shooter Sean Yella Maraju.

I got it.

That's how you pronounce the name.

I was schooled on it.

For a second there, I thought you went over to the LPGA.

No, no, no, no.

I'm doing some names.

My friend, Arnold, on school me on it.

All right, well.

I was like, I can't pronounce this.

You helped me out here.

And he's like, just slow it down, and you got it.

I'm going to have to write that down.

Yeah, it's a lot.

We just got to clear that.

How about we just call him a shooter, McGavin?

That makes it way easier for me.

I thought that's what you were going with all of this.

Well, Old Yella is really good.

I mean, I'm a dog guy.

So there you go.

A chocolate lab at home, you know?

Yeah.

I'm going to give it one day.

Hopefully, so you won't live him,

that you're going to have to old Yella him.

I accept that so.

I mean, it's sad.

That's what's making me think of it.

No, I'm sorry.

I don't want to create the bad vibes.

That's what we're here in person.

We're going back to Thursday.

First round leader, charts.

So Scotty is number one, Rory is number two, Nikolai.

Number three, and that is a bet for me this week.

I have 45 to one, Nikolai Hoigard, first round leader.

Nikolai Hoigard, 11 under par on the week.

Nikolai Hoigard, that PGA national.

I think Shane Lowry was like 15 under par on the week.

And that PGA national.

Unfortunately, he was at one point, 19 under par on the weekend.

I'd be like two years in a row that the guy who like barely

made the cut would have won the turn.

Because remember, Highsmith made the number,

made it on the number, and then he ended up winning the turn.

And I was following the cut line, like intensely.

And I saw that Nikolai was there, Thor Bjornson was there,

there was a bunch of them.

And then like five of them moved up to cut them off, right?

And even I was I was very interested in Nikolai.

And I think Nikolai is a great play this week.

So there's a bunch of reasons why I think this is well.

Okay.

Of that, like, you have your upper tier.

And I would call the upper tier right now.

And I got into a conversation with a bunch of guys.

I want to get your take on it as well.

Rory versus Scotty right now.

Okay.

Like, let's just think about it in simple terms

of either bedding odds or draft kings.

Cause they're a bit correlated in that way.

Okay.

Like Scotty's $2,500 more than Rory.

Do you think that as they stand right now

on the first TFA hillbook, what we'd seen this year

is Scotty $1,500 better than Rory right now.

For the other example of that,

would you say that the gap between Scotty and Rory

is bigger or smaller than the gap between Rory and J.J. Spawn?

Right now.

Well, for Harry Hall.

Same price.

Scotty's all right.

Golfers.

Scotty's not right.

Golfers because he doesn't play in the TGL.

Why doesn't he play in the TGL?

I don't know.

But the TGL guys win.

Like, where's Spieth?

All right.

Why isn't there like the Spieth and Scotty team?

Where are they?

They're probably working on Texas.

The lawyers have them held up.

I don't know.

Let's like it sidetracked here.

It's easy for me to get tangential.

Which you don't.

What's more here?

This is the vibe time.

We never get to do it in person.

Well, we're going to get there.

There'll be plenty of things.

But the show might go on for like three hours.

Well, eventually the PA system's going to drown us out.

The show will get in it.

What Roger Steel comes in to start doing

is MC routine.

You'll everyone will know.

Golf fans, golf professionals, golf media people,

we all live in history.

We're always like, it's very tough for us

to give up our heroes, our Lord and Spieth,

or anything else.

Everyone's thinking that Scotty's going to break through.

He's going to break through.

You phrased it perfectly.

As they stand right now, he is not that much better than Rory.

If anything, Rory is going to be better than him.

So if you live in the now, which people should,

when they're betting, they're dollars,

they're Canadian and American dollars,

or whatever.

Were you a hoes or pounds or Australian dollars?

It's all currency.

And all of them.

Yes, whatever it is.

Some Dinar, although I think I got devalued again.

Deutschmarks, whatever it may be, the sterling,

Eek, you have got to live in the now.

If anything, doing this, having this conversation

with you every week, it stimulates me to think about

like the random conversations we've had about one and done.

And all these other different like aspects of how I take

the playability of the golf course

and then I throw it into the field,

it has made me like way more focused on living in the now.

And people have got to live in the now.

And when you ask me that question,

it's 1,000% Rory is in a better place than Scotty right now.

And you can't argue otherwise.

And Rory's three times the odds.

My whole point on this is I think that,

I mean, Scotty's obviously getting a rod

because of that history.

He's getting so much respect in the market.

Sure.

There's a lot of people out there who both Scotty

hasn't won in three tournaments.

He's obviously going to win this week

because we've seen that happen and that he wins three

in a row, whatever it might be.

But I think that people are so scared

that Scotty's going to make them look stupid.

They don't want to step in front of them.

However, if you've been doing that, it's been working.

It didn't work at AMEX, but there was no real challenge.

And I was, I mean, I think to go back and think about it,

I feel like my hypothesis was correct.

Just Scotty wasn't playing Scotty golf.

It's not that he couldn't win the AMEX,

but at plus 250, it was like, well, this is an easy course.

Someone can go out and shoot a score here

and just beat him on that day.

And if he would just shown up on Sunday,

he'd probably be cheffler because he was way ahead.

He just didn't and maybe that's part of the Scotty effect

that we have the Tiger effect

that maybe that there is somewhat of a Scotty effect now

on some of these guys.

There's all about a roundabout point of why

I'm betting Nikolai this week.

I'm getting back to it.

Okay.

I'm going to, I'm going to,

I'm going to reel this back in.

All right.

Absolutely.

All right.

So Scotty right now, should he be the favorite?

Yes.

Oh, yeah.

Yes.

And to look at the win probability simulations right now,

which I am looking at, which you can get

on the rabbit hole, betfordscolf.com slash mayo,

17% chance to win here,

which that doesn't equal three to one.

So he should really be like five or six to one.

Rory should be like 10 or 11 to one.

Like if Rory's going to be 10, Scotty should be seven.

He should be favorite over Rory.

He should be the betting favorite.

What a percentage.

But I feel like now they're asking you to pay

on the Scotty shop for that we saw for the past two years.

Not this guy.

And yes, he can go like that.

And he could have spent the week on the range,

went back to Texas, chilled out,

figured it all back out again.

Definitely.

But the difference between Scotty this time

and this struggle is, comes to him every week.

He sucks now.

He came forth.

But to think about it in that way,

but you're betting him like he's tiger.

Like that.

These are the odds that you're getting right now.

So you have to start thinking about it.

He's not striking the ball well.

He's doing it with chipping in a pot.

He's doing house members.

He's a little hot chipping in pot.

Well, remember when Speed started to suck,

but his results didn't suck,

as all we do was chip in and make pots,

Scotty's kind of doing the same thing right now.

Yeah, yeah.

And so, but if he was first T to green,

he's like seven T to green or something like that.

But if it was like the driver is like second in the field,

the irons are by far better,

which was his cheat code on everyone.

And the chipping was like, oh, yeah,

a bad way chipping and he lost six strokes potting.

He'd be like, well, that's going to turn around.

But irons don't tend to turn around like that.

Like, if you don't, they don't flip a switch.

That's a sure thing.

We saw this from Morakawa.

This happened to Morakawa over three years.

Morakawa was the best iron player in the world for 18 months.

And then he just became a very good iron player,

so well above average, so one of the best.

But he was so much better on a consistent basis

than everyone, he won two majors.

And then he wasn't at that 99th percent to style level.

He was at the 80 percentile level,

and he didn't win for three years.

And Scotty is so good at everything.

Once you start taking away how good he is with these irons,

it makes him beatable again.

And that's to say he'll win three times this year

and some seven.

You know what I mean?

And if he only wins three times, these are horrible odds.

Everyone's biggest concern right now should be,

you spelled it out.

It is basically like 160 to 220 yards

is where you're going to hit a value.

You're going to hit like, you know,

what, 45% of your approaches,

50% of your approaches this week.

That was his superpower.

That's how he's separating.

We're Scotty the Chair in that, right?

He's not using his superpower.

He's 15th in this field in that.

Yeah, in this field, which is all the best players.

Yeah, but normally he's first by a lot, by a ton.

There was a point in this tournament a couple of years ago

when he wanted that he hit more greens in regulation

that he was hitting pots inside eight feet percentage wise.

Right? So he was hitting like 80% of his greens inside,

right, 80% of his greens, period from any yardage.

And from like pots inside eight feet,

I remember listening to the coverage.

I was like, wait, I had to rewind it.

I was like, say that Kent.

His greens in regulation percentage was better

than his conversion rate on the green from like eight feet in it.

And now that's kind of flipped a little bit.

It's just interesting.

But you know, the game comes and has ebbs and flows.

I mean, people still to this day,

they keep talking about trying to make the Scotty Tiger comparisons.

And to a certain degree,

the dominance that he's shown the last couple of years,

it's starting to become comparable.

But Scotty's, there's no way that Scotty walks.

You and I are not near having a conversation

where Scotty walks into a event and he's even money.

And Tiger was in that position at Bay Hill in 2000.

Here we go. There we go.

In 2008, right?

He wins five out of six to close 2007.

He starts 2008, he goes to farmers,

and he's like, I don't know, plus 110.

And then he wins that.

And then next thing, you know, he's like second at WGC,

he wins another one, and then they go to Bay Hill,

and he's even money against a full field with a cut.

And it's like, like we're talking about this.

Scotty's never gonna miss this cut, right?

So strike me down and he ripped the roof off.

I mean, why would that ever happen, right?

Like, so the point being is that like,

he's always gonna, like, he has the advantage of knowing

he makes the cut, you know?

And he's gonna get through this field, like, he's straight along.

We're just not even close to the Tiger bedding days.

This is my point, I guess.

Yeah, I just wanted to have that Sheffler discuss today.

And like, even when Blicco and I were talking

about it a little bit, and he brought up the great point

that when he's hitting the ball,

he's kind of pulling his feet now.

He's turned into Ted Scott and being like, what's going on?

Like, he's low, he's short.

For two straight years, Scotty, he might have been left,

but it was pin high, 98% of the time.

Like, that's, and it's not something

that can't be improved upon once again, and he gets it back.

But until that happens, I would rather continue

to step in front of him right now in the bedding market

until he gets that back,

because we're still getting the advantage

of him being listed at three to one,

winning, he should probably be double that.

And some of these other guys are now slipping down.

So really, you might see whoever you choose,

like pick your own poison here,

of who's down the list of who should be better.

For me, it fits this week.

I mean, for a lot of people, it's fits.

I read you off who the best players are from 150 to 200.

It's fits.

There's no one striking them all better on tour right now

than Matt Fitzpatrick.

Somehow, he can't put any more.

Yeah, he's played this tournament 10 times.

He's never lost strokes putting.

So this could be the first.

It's still putting, it's still random,

but I will step in front of that.

If you're asking me that all Matt Fitzpatrick needs to do

right now is make eight foot puts.

I mean, that's something he's done for 10 years.

He just hasn't done it for the past four weeks.

Yeah, plus he has it as bank that he beat him one time.

Head to head.

You know, it was a major obviously Scotty.

Maybe he didn't have his superpowers and what.

Yeah, he was a 22.

Well, that's the CCC.

Yeah, I see.

I bet on Sheffield 17 to one that week to win that tournament.

So obviously he couldn't win.

And Fitzpatrick was 28 to one.

I remember because I had fits that week.

I had Scotty and Zau.

That's how it works.

Yeah, we've all been there.

We've all been there.

What concerns me about Fitzpatrick is

the golf course conditions are really, really hard.

He's a low flight player, right?

He, we have got to get Maddie Fitz.

If you want to get Maddie Fitz across the finish line this week

and he could certainly do it.

He was in your last night, didn't miss a shot.

It was very, very good.

Could he putt?

Okay.

A lot of guys struggle in here putting it.

It's not a, I don't, there are a lot of things in here.

I don't consider a good gauge.

I'm not worried about them chipping off turf

where the lie is perfect.

It's like how can robots go in a round?

Freaking people out while the robot is always going around.

Billy Howard would yell at it one night.

So the robot came behind him like while he was chipping

and he like smashed, he like barked at it.

It was, it was pretty funny.

But we've got to get Fitz to hit some.

It's not going to matter off the tee.

But as he's approaching some of these greens,

he's going to have to hit the,

he's got to learn to hit the ball a little higher this week.

Because he flights it really, really low,

hit it in.

It's going to be very, very difficult.

The greens are going to be purple.

And we're not, we're not expecting as much wind as some years

where it's going to be.

That is true. That is true.

So it's not going to be like annihilation with it.

So I would think that the more enough,

because I remember the year that it was the annihilation

when the hat and ear Fitz was the only guy to break 70

on the weekend, it's probably because of that ball flight.

Well, that, because of that and because of his short game,

incredible short game player.

And you know, you talk about, you're right.

This year he hasn't been making everything inside of 10 feet,

but he notoriously makes everything inside of 10 feet.

He's a really good up and down player.

He certainly is the type of guy.

He is a US open style player.

That is what he is built to do.

That's why he is one one.

That's why he will be good at Bay Hill.

That's why he has been good at Bay Hill.

But what concerns me is that this week,

with the lack of wind and everything and other players

are going to have just as equal of an opportunity

to kind of hit it through the wind, right?

I wanted to hit it a little higher.

I'm concerned about that.

And when I looked at the board, right?

And at the top, there was two iron players

that I had my mind.

One you love and the other one you're betting this week, right?

So I haven't seen more of how I hit it like this in years.

I've seen him hit it live more times than I can count.

And for like two years, we've been like,

where's this iron game?

Where's this iron game?

He is playing with so much confidence right now.

It's scary.

And what really gets me excited about where he's at in this game

is that he seems to have shed whatever the deal was

last year.

Are the demons here?

Is this where the demons live at Bay Hill?

Where they got them?

Oh, man.

I mean, but I think the demons were traveling around with them.

Oh, God, I mean, like he would do things

that were very uncollon like at all these different tournaments.

I'm like, what is this guy doing?

But his next two weeks are tailor made, pun intended,

for him and his style of game.

As someone who bets more counter at the players every year,

and does not want to sant off of it, I'm with you.

It does.

You know, of course, actually sets up perfectly for him?

Cognizant.

Oh, yeah.

Get him to the coggy wins.

Well, one of the things though, other players

can play from the rough at the cog.

They can't at Bay Hill.

And Bay Hill does it right.

They widen the fairways enough that accuracy off the team

makes a difference.

And that's why Headley and Colin and those guys.

But last year seemed like such an outlier

where it's funny because when we get to the live Hong Kong

picks a little bit later on, that style of players

who you want at live Hong Kong.

So like answer, Paul Casey, those sorts of guys.

And they're best comps on the PGA tour now, Corey Connors,

Russell Henley, just great off the team.

Not long, but great off the team.

Gain a ton of stroke.

Seewoo would be another one.

Seewoo great.

Yeah.

Great with her.

Seewoo legitimately cannot punt this course.

Or punt general.

I mean, there's so much that Seewoo does.

Let's just talk about this real quick for a second.

You talk about off the tee.

Seewoo left to right.

Predominantly, you can't miss left here.

All right, you cannot miss left.

You could throw it in the bottle.

So Taylor Moore unchecked.

Taylor Moore's name.

Case in the left.

Yeah, good thing Steven Yeager is in here.

You know, all size of case in the left's right now?

Scotty Shetler.

Well, it's been known to happen.

There's another guy that everybody loves the bet, you know,

the kid, Ludwig.

He got a little bit of that long left pole going on

with the driver from time to time.

He figured it out of Genesis.

I have my money on him this week.

He's fine.

Don't worry about Ludwig.

I should wait.

The ball striking coming back to Ludwig

never concerns me.

It's just that I don't believe that he has a major

championship short game.

So this is what that's what concerns me here.

This is what I found really interesting.

And Blickelbrob has course fit model

and it's something that I've just observed over the years.

You know who chips really well at Bayhill?

Guys, it's suck around the greens.

It's a non-pred, is less predictive at Bayhill

than any other tournament because that rough is so thick.

Well, yeah.

It's a lot of chunk and run.

And weirdly, a lot of the guys who are the worst

short game players are some of the best ball strikers.

So Victor's the perfect example of this.

Who's done really well around the greens here.

So I was trying to get Blickelbrob to like, why is this?

Like, why do you see no predictive value

and how good guys are around the green versus somewhere else?

He's like, well, a lot of these great ball strikers,

they don't miss by much.

So it's not like they're buried 10 yards from the green.

They're like nestled up against it

or they're two yards away that they can just bump it on

and it rolls out to the pin.

They're not asked to make a Patrick Reed type save

because they're not missing by as much.

So I think, I'm just not even considering

around the green here.

I just want the ball strikers.

I think that the less you have to rely on around the green

and I think that the lives can be really random here too,

whether you're buried or like if you hit into the bunkers,

you're way better off than hitting into the rough.

These are some of the easiest green side bunkers percentage wise

on tour to get it up and down from the rough.

It's like impossible.

Yeah, because if like the difference would be like next week

at the players, right?

That you have these shaved off surfaces,

Justin Thomas is going to take his wedge

and Scotty's going to take his wedge

and he's going to put it to one inch and go tap it in.

He can move those guys this week.

Scotty's going to have to chunk it out of that rough.

He's going to leave him seven.

He's going to leave himself seven feet

prepared and have to make those pots.

It's just like a lot of guys,

like it mitigates the impact that you don't have

that sort of control, right?

So yeah, there's definitely more of an unknown factor

when it comes to around the green here,

your field village, and that's why you see the guys

that do have a great short game week

kind of elevate on the leaderboard.

But that's a climb easier.

But some of the some of the stuff around the short game,

like numbers is you know, you chip in once or twice.

Now you're like, you had the best week ever.

Well, you've heard the metrics, right?

Yeah, or you're billi-o and you chip into the water.

And then you lose three strokes at you, like, yeah.

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All right, we're back.

I got picks across three tournaments this week.

You need to sub to the Mayo Media newsletter.

If you just want the cheat sheet for this,

it gets sent out on Wednesday afternoon.

It'll hit your inbox.

It was very profitable last week.

I have my doubts, it will be as profitable this week.

In fact, you'll probably lose money.

I mean, I made a profit over in Singapore.

The Singapore sling game there.

I woke up in the morning.

I'm gonna get a hand of green.

Hand of green, all right?

That's okay.

That's all right.

You had a big week, all right?

I live in my, as a main character,

I live in my own world.

That's right.

I'm happy to be gilligan to your skipper, all right?

Just don't get us lost.

I don't want to be drowned out.

I want this to drown at the best.

People need to hear the best this week.

I have all projects.

Yeah, you project, all project.

Okay.

I didn't realize there's a rat concert in here.

I mean, we never know what's going on in this place.

There we go.

There we go.

We got Nelly coming in a little bit later.

All right, Arnold Palmer invitation.

I hear my bets.

Matt Fitzpatrick.

I played all of these with three places at Bet365.

I additionally played Matt Fitzpatrick

and the PME Boost at CoolBet.com.

Hit the description if you're in Canada.

Outside of Ontario, I have Matt Fitzpatrick

boosted up to 30 to one over there

for Justin outright win.

And I have Michael Brennan in Puerto Rico

boosted up to 42 to one, which is,

20 points better than the market at this point.

Because he got shale.

Yeah, no, no, no, no, no, we lost the rap.

Are they just doing every genre?

You know, what is the road?

We interview the robot if they hand us the mic.

I mean, so it happens.

So Fitzpatrick, 33 to one with three places.

Look, big 66 to one with three places.

Here's in Cudi.

My guy, 90 to one, three places.

Struck it and noran 110 to one, three places.

Nikolai Hoigard, 100 to one with three places.

First round leader, Nikolai 45, Keith Mitchell, 55.

In Puerto Rico, Michael Brennan, 42 to one again.

That number is at CoolBet.

And all of the rest of them are played with three places.

David Ford, 75.

Shooter Sean Yellow, Marajou, 110 to one.

Zach Baushu, 110 to one.

Davis Riley, 140 to one.

Chandler Blanchett, 140 to one.

And the guy sits on his hand to give himself some relief

here.

The stranger, Jimmy Stanger, 273, 275 to one with three places.

Then we're going overseas for some late night stuff,

Liv Hong Kong, answer 33, Bermister, 40, Paul Casey, 125,

and Wade Orbsby.

Wade Orbsby, 1350 to one.

In a live event.

In a live event.

Turn around, he's one twice.

Three.

Now, draftings, hung that number for an entire day.

It's at like 500 to one, or 400 to one now, but 1350 to one.

He's one at the Hong Kong Club.

He's one, two tournaments there on the Asian and DP world

tours.

And he's not playing bad golf at the moment.

He's not.

The fact that I know that somewhat kind of scares me.

I won't go live, I'll go LPGA.

Too late to just keep an eye on Austin Kim and Lyndy Duncan.

This is another one of those limited field events

where they're going to like import in, like 40% of the field

is from the China, like women's professional tour.

We're going to throw in like another 10 sponsor's exemptions.

And the best player in the field is either Yaka Fieraway

or Hyde and Choi, both are in about 10 to one.

In a normal field event, they'd be about 25 to 30.

So, saying it again in case people got to try,

I apologize for the background here.

If you're listening to the audio, it's just

what we're dealing with here.

Anthony Kim, you said he's going to win on the LPGA tour?

He won on live.

Now he's going to conquer LPGA.

Austin Kim.

Oh, OK.

Austin Kim.

I don't know what from a limp.

Austin Kim, 316.

Yeah.

He's going to stun her China.

I mean, listen, Austin has stun her China in the past.

Yeah.

And Lyndy Duncan.

There's two names for you.

Everyone got upset last week, because I talked

a bunch about Geno.

And not the pick that one.

Well, again, if you could read the line, right?

In the description, hit the link.

You can get the picks.

They get sent to you in case I forget to ask about Anna Green.

So people I'm interested in at Bay Hill.

Oh, once I have three more here.

Sorry.

I won a lot of money last week.

We're going to give it all back.

I'm making a charitable donation to the sports book this week.

Let me write this down.

Davis Riley, 70-1, Chandler Blanchett, 70-1,

Jimmy Stanger, 80-1, 1st round leader in Puerto Rico.

The whole method behind it, and I really

want to have a, say, make some noise.

I don't want to make that much noise or have noise

be made behind me.

I can see that out of my eye.

So I have a whole Michael Brennan thing that I want to do.

But I hit Phillips here last year,

based on he had two spike rounds with approach at the call.

I think he came like T-39, but just to look at his approach,

while you're like, man, he was really sharp.

And Davis Riley and Blanchett both missed a cut last week

and both gained right around like three and a half

four strokes on approach.

They drove into the water like three times,

and they were just cooked for the week.

You're probably not going to be driving it too much

into the water.

You might think you can go bad in Puerto Rico,

but I have elite drivers, and I have elite iron players

this week, and I'm hoping that one of them

can show up and make some pots.

Because between Faucio, Shooter Sean, and Michael Brennan,

we have like N-D even Ford.

You have four of like the best drivers out there.

And then you have, I mean, Stanger just looked

to E-Pop twice driving and with irons.

Last week in separate rounds, put that stuff.

He can third here last year too.

Put that together, he's in play.

So it's out, it is a lot of bets.

I can see that, but I only have one bet under 50 to one.

So here's the thing.

There's a lot to comment on there.

Okay, I want to get one take from you, all right?

Yeah.

Michael Brennan's driving is the single best skill

on the PGA Tour right now.

How good he is at driving the ball.

Scotty is second to him in strokes gained off the tee

by almost 0.2 strokes per round.

He hits it fairways at the same rate as Mora Coway

in Henley, and he out drives Henley by 30 yards.

He can't do anything else, but yeah.

It's interesting that some of these modern guys,

like a Thor, you know, how well,

how accurate it is and how long he is with the driver,

and then also the greens and regulation.

He also whenever he sees water in his line of time,

he hits into it.

Well, drop the hammer, Thor.

All right, between Bay Hill, Cog and 3M,

he has struggled off the tee.

Brennan, he flushes it, man.

I saw a lot of e flushes it, but here to your point,

when you are navigating the waters through some

of the lower ranks, there are a number of people

that you brought up.

I can't see everybody in a week, you know,

someone's like, oh, did you see this guy?

Did you see this guy?

I'm there, right?

And they're like, oh, you didn't see Brooks.

I'm like, I'm not a stalker, right?

Like, okay, like, I'm doing, like,

I might be able to show when you were,

I might be doing something else.

Like, I'm trying, folks, I'm doing my best.

There's over a hundred guys pointing the view.

So my point is this, the different people I talk to,

but there was a couple of people that came up last week.

Marty Dow being one of them.

All right, so you had made some favorable comments

about him, fucking that, right?

Fucking that, right?

So, but approach play, primarily, yeah, right?

So my point in this is that when you start to talk about,

and you're navigating the lower waters there,

the deepest, you know, reaches of the ocean,

and you're talking about Davis Riley

and betting on these guys, right?

You have a knack for finding the right guys

at the right time, because Marty Dow

on approach was unbelievable last week, right?

And, you know, I watched him hit balls,

and I'm like, that move right there has staying power.

Like, I need to start to pay attention to this guy.

Down the bottom of the board.

Is he going to be an 8,000 player on the draft gigs?

Never, you know what I mean?

But, you know.

You need to find the right events

where these guys can use those skills.

He's going to get a bigger field.

My end cognizant is, as you pointed out to me last week,

this is a pure ball striker's course.

Like, if you strike the ball well, PJ National,

you're going to score.

Oh, yeah, you absolutely well.

It's flat green, it's the same thing at Bay Hill.

You could strike it really, really well, and this week,

but the caveat here is, and hold the green screen.

Yeah, and it's from 50 years longer.

Well, and you could hold the greens

then you're going to score.

So who's big puts here?

So who do you like this week?

All right, I like Colin.

Okay, I like Colin.

You and Farnberg like Colin.

I really, and I'm never a big Colin guy,

much like you're always a Colin guy.

I'm not the hugest Colin guy.

What I've seen at a Colin in the confidence,

and like, what's going on between the ears?

I think he could go on a run.

Okay.

I really do.

And I think this is a good golf course for him.

How do you feel about masters for Colin?

He's played very well with Augusta.

It doesn't seem like he should be good there, but he is.

So I always feel very good about him there,

because you don't have to be a good putter to win the masters.

That's fact, it's proven.

Just look through the ears.

Same as Bay Hill.

Okay, same thing, right?

Okay.

As you've said, I'm not certainly completely in this camp,

but you don't have to be a great short game player

to win at Bay Hill.

And you don't need to be, you need to be at Augusta,

but you don't need to be a good around the green player

to actually be good around the, look at Bubba.

Bubba can chip in free places in his life.

Yeah.

And when he does, he wins.

Bay Hill is the first shock off course.

So we hear that all the time about Augusta.

It's a second shock off course.

So Colin's iron game right now.

You talk about Michael Brennan being good.

And I know you're saying that different guys

have better approach numbers.

Where Colin's going to take his iron game right now

with his comfort level?

And speaking to him and here and in the press room

and just kind of getting a feel for where he's at mentally,

he's going to go next level with his iron game

and whatever lines up for that, like just hop on board.

So next week, and next week there is a lot of short game.

I mean, you can just hit all the green.

No one, but thing is no one hits all the greens.

Eventually, you have to make a chip.

That's kind of the unknown secret sauce of that place

is that you have to be a good chipper.

Look at everyone who ended up near the top.

I mean, spawn was a bit of an outlier

because he like legit hit all the greens of regulation.

But everyone else, like even Glover

and like guys like battered, how they doing this?

I mean, option captain himself up there

by making every 10 foot putt for an entire day.

I mean, when he didn't have it,

you make 120 feet of putts a day,

you're going to do OK.

You're going to be fine for most hours.

Or more last week.

Yes, wow.

Or LaHoury until it stopped working.

So then I drift down.

And this guy, these two guys,

have never been approach merchants.

OK, all right.

They both drive it top 10 in the world, right?

They both kill it off the table.

See if I can guess.

OK, keep telling me.

One's American.

One reminds me kind of an oral Palmer, the American guy,

the way he plays.

And then the other guy is, he wouldn't be on the Ryder Cup team.

He'd be on the international team, OK?

He drives a game.

Both these guys put it, they put it well.

So Min Wu is one of them.

Correct.

Right?

He's not going to win here.

He's going to miss Scott.

Watch out for Min Wu.

He loves hitting into the water here.

Well, big fan.

He gets very hot.

I got off the point.

I was sweating.

I understand.

Going into the water.

I get the history.

The history is not strong.

It's not strong.

It's not strong, OK?

The guy that reminds you of Arnold Palmer, and he keeps.

This is look.

His swagger.

He's got some swagger.

It's got a little hair going on.

Oh, so you're betting Jake Napp again.

I like Jake Napp again.

Listen, I like Jake Napp enough.

And this was a conversation that Jeff and I had.

So I'll have it with you, too.

OK.

Rank these guys in the tears between Chris Goddard,

Jake Napp, and Pearson Cudi.

You want me to just rank together?

Just just rank those three guys.

You just put a bit order.

So Goddard, Napp, Cudi.

Now, as far as we're, so we're there.

Yeah, yeah.

Is Napp closer to Goddard or Cudi?

I believe he's closer to Goddard.

See, I think he's closer to Cudi.

But I might be overweight.

I mean, I bet Cudi to win this tournament.

So all the numbers like Napp this week,

but all the numbers also like Cudi.

And I was like, huh, I can just bet Cudi

for double the price of Napp.

Let me do that.

And that allows me to fit in Nikolai on my card as well.

That's the way that I thought about my card.

I don't think that you're wrong with Napp.

But I still see it.

If Napp and Goddard are up for the same number,

why wouldn't you expect Goddard?

If you think Goddard is better,

because this is the problem that I can counter all the time

and why I lose betting on golf.

Right.

So when you say better, maybe not for this course

in the play this week.

I'm always thinking about the timing of it all.

He's already won twice.

Good for him.

This goes back to BC than golf betting, right?

But the average PGA tour player makes 80% of their cash

in a six week span, right?

I think Goddard has hit that.

He peaked.

He peaked, right?

And he's going to peak again somewhere

because he's that level of player somewhere around the majors

again, but I think he's an all for a moment.

I think Napp is still on the tail end of that six weeks.

And I'm going to ride it until I start

to see things that I don't like.

The thing with Napp and Minu that they're doing right now

is that they have increased their acumen with their iron

game.

And doing that, you compliment that with their driver

putter, that makes them legitimate threats.

I don't know if Minu, because I've seen the same thing

you have with his iron play.

It's way better.

Way better.

And in that range, the longer I just don't trust

that he's going to keep it seems like such an outlier.

It's such an outlier for either he's way better now

and he has fixed this.

Or it's going to regress back to what he normally is.

Here's the thing.

There's a lot of times you and I agree on the final word.

There's something today that we're not agreeing.

We're not supposed to find a word.

The final word, we need to hash this out.

I think that short game is going to matter more

than you do.

I think it's going to play a bigger role.

I think bunker play is going to play a bigger role.

And I'm leaning in on somebody like Minu

if he's comparative to somebody else in that area.

That's why I like Nikolai, the short game.

Again, that's the way I feel about this.

That's from playing there.

It's such a well-rounded contest, right?

For all the reasons that we were going into Riviera,

we were like, hey, we love Xander.

Why?

Just because Xander shows up in all aspects of the game.

Why don't we like Xander this week?

I have no reason why I don't like him either,

but I don't like him.

One of the most impressive things last year was when

he had the cut streak on the line.

And this was the first event he chose to come back.

That cut streak is fucking fraudulent.

Well, when you play in no cut events in those counts,

then it's kind of fraudulent.

Well, I mean, Tiger, 25% of his 142 is no cut events.

Yeah, no, that shouldn't count.

Well, let's just take those ones out.

Then we'll go back to Sam Seen,

getting wins against four people.

The count towards the 82.

Sure.

Let's just start.

The Tiger was still able to be bad.

We'll do it.

We'll go in.

We'll go in.

We'll turn him in by turn of it.

That one doesn't count.

That one doesn't count.

That's off season content, kids.

OK, we'll save it for December.

So your bets are NAP, Minwoo, and Colin.

Those are your three?

NAP, and Woo Colin.

Nikolai.

Nikolai.

There we go.

If you want the rest, you're going to have to read the line.

But that was also a part of what I wanted to get to as well.

When I gave you the gotter up, NAP, and Cudi.

Where would you put Nikolai amongst those guys?

Would he be better than all of those guys, do you think?

Yeah.

I think so too.

I think so too.

Oh, 100%.

And therefore, he's a bet.

There's a major gap there.

Gotter up's next level.

He's a good above average PGH or iron player.

Gotter up to go next level.

He needs to be able to do.

So one of the reasons I don't like Gotter up here this week

is because he leans on it so much at impact, right?

Well, he just traps it so much.

Again, much like fits, right?

And it's played amazing in the wind.

So yes.

So in question.

So this is a really interesting angle,

I think, that I got a bunch of dead money already out there

right now.

But one thing we have seen at this tournament over time

is that wind can appear out of nowhere.

If you, right now in the forecast,

I'm using the Orlando Executive Airport on Windfinder.

That's what I'm using.

It's showing up to 18, which is windy, but not windy for here.

It's not going to be worse to that, folks.

I'll tell you.

But if we log in on Saturday night, or even tomorrow,

and it's like, oh, come in Sunday is 35 mile per hour winds,

all of a sudden, if Gotter ups around the leaderboard,

Gotter up, it fits, Norton, all these guys, Gerard.

You went under the hat in Saturday?

Yeah.

That was one of the most profitable days ever,

because every round, because it showed up at Friday at 6 p.m.

that it was going to, like, tomorrow was going to be a massacre.

And everyone had already set their rounds

that over-under threw the rounds the next morning.

And you just bet everyone over.

And everyone was over.

Except for fits.

It was the only guy who went under that thing.

Then you would have went like 80 to one.

80 to one.

Bryce and actually played well, because he made every pot.

That was your only chance that day.

The place was, first of all, it was like this.

It was firm.

It was unplayable.

And then they threw, like, 40 mile an hour gusts at you

on a place that has all sorts of non-land landing areas.

Water where you can lose a ball.

Was this the tournament where Phil laid up on the par three?

Oh, I don't know.

It was a hero, it was a memorial.

I can't remember now.

There was too windy.

Couldn't get it there.

So he laid up to the round.

Fucking Phil.

Right.

If it was to the right, then it wasn't at Bay Hill.

I think it was, I was thinking it was.

That's another thing.

16 of memorial, I think, that it was.

The one where the tiger has the chip from behind the green.

Oh, yeah, that was the one.

Yeah, yeah.

It's 100% was out.

Yeah, the one where everyone just flies it on the Sunday.

Just like, let's go take it behind and come back down.

Yeah, you made it over to the fairway to the right,

because it's like kind of this crescent moon type of setup.

So par three, par three scoring this week.

Could be something you're between two guys.

Take a look at that.

You can see the new ranges on par three efficiency tab

on the rabbit hole now.

We got, we've parsed it over from fantasy national.

It finally got done.

We had the 50 to like zero to 150, 151 to 175.

This is our, these are our two ranges here this week.

200 to 225, 225 points.

Oh, great playwright, did I got that?

Ryan Fox.

Ryan Fox, we talked a lot about Ryan Fox.

We talked ourselves into Ryan Fox on the Draft King show.

Just looking more and more.

It's like, you know what else I went back to this week?

Austin Smotherman.

You see, you need, if you want to play Scotty Shetler,

which it's funny that I did the big rant about Scotty,

but Draft King's wise, I did.

How do you feel about Jacob Bridget with this week?

I don't.

I don't feel.

You want to talk about guys who probably peaked.

These guys, good player.

He's a very good player, but this is no, he strikes me.

I don't know what he did in his, his week off.

Of the fact that he didn't show up to his hometown event,

leads me to believe that maybe he did a,

a bit of like what Bobby Mac did when he went to the Canadian

open that time, had some fun and then came back

and really struggled for some reason,

but very tired the next time that was on fatigue.

Yeah.

But Smotherman just out of the $6,400,

like no one's good at the bottom of this list.

Like just, I'm going to read you some names, say,

give me the first guy you stopped me when the first guy

you would play on Draft King's is Brian Campbell,

Andrew Putnam, Andrew Novak, Billy Horsill,

Jonathan Vegas, Bud Cully, my guy, Michael Kim,

Tom Hogi, Brian Harmon, Joel Damon, Austin,

so Damon maybe, so Joel and Joel 63,

Smotherman 64, then you're into more Rogers,

potgator, Kirk, Denny, Poston, Matt McCarty.

I mean, I might, at least Smotherman

can spike with his irons.

You can.

And honest to God, if he had just made a few pucks

on Sunday, he wins that tournament.

100% just, he stopped putting on the weekend.

I, again, winning is hard.

And picking out rights is like splitting hairs.

But if you're the first round leader and you maintain,

and you're Austin Smotherman, I'm not talking about Scotty

being the first round leader, like maintain,

like spots to field nine strokes on, on Thursdays now.

But like, I just, like, I got all the credit in the world.

He helped it together.

It's hard to do on the PGA tour.

And as I mentioned, no, shit, the Irish bear couldn't do it

on Sunday.

No, listen to me.

If he stopped wearing black on Sundays,

he wouldn't be so hot that he wouldn't have to go for the dip.

Hey, man, I, I know a lot about the golf swing,

that T-shirt on 16, that will live.

That will live in his mind rent-free for an eternity.

Lowry did a bunch of things that I do on the course.

Like, he makes this outrageously long birdie pod.

And what does he do on the next shot?

Topses drive.

I knew that.

That's what I knew.

I mean, what, what am I gonna do?

I'm gonna play it safe and hit an iron on the tee.

What I do?

Oh, I hit it out of bounds.

I, I, you know, I didn't have a vested interest in the very end.

So when he hit the tee shot on 17,

click, I got better things to do.

That was it.

I know.

I don't know how, Nico won.

That's it.

Oh, yeah.

Oh, I do.

His, but his bunker shot on 16 is net.

No one's going to remember it.

It had to be one of the shots of the year.

Oh, to put it to like a foot.

It's like, oh, my God.

In the moment.

I was like, I was like, oh, he's gonna make,

he's gonna make triple here.

Nico's gonna be winning.

And he makes this bunker shot.

I'm like, of course, fucking courts.

I mean, the, when you've lost for so long,

you just expect when things start happening

and breaking your way late.

It normally goes the other way.

Like, oh, no, my guy has hit it.

Nico, I hit it in the desert and got stuck behind a cactus.

It made triple.

He's done.

Oh, he lost by a shot.

Great.

He had just taken that drop that they would have given him.

How many?

He would have won.

How many times have you had the break of the wrong way?

Like, it's crazy, right?

One thing that I've tried to be good at

and I will continue to be good is remember

when it works in your favor.

And remember that it's a, that's a great PSA for everybody.

Because it's hard to win as it is and pick these winners.

But when things do break your way,

like you banked up some luck for a while now,

now things are going to go against you a little bit.

Or maybe you're on like a bit of a heater.

Because sometimes this comes, I remember coming out of COVID.

It was, I got a bad loss in the playoff.

I had Xander ended up winning at Colonial.

No burger ended up winning at Colonial.

Oh, Xander and Mora Cala, who both,

one of them lost the burger.

Yeah.

It was like, here we go coming out of it.

And then we had a winner for four straight weeks.

Like, Web Simpson couldn't miss a putt

at Heritage Island.

And then Dustin ended up at Dustin.

They hung like a 25 on him at the travelers

against Brendan Todd.

The Todd father did not hold up.

Yeah.

I don't know if you saw that.

Yeah.

When the guys WD'd.

Yep.

So I talked to a few people who did this now.

So guys bet random dudes all the time,

which Justin Hicks was the guy people were betting last week.

Yeah.

And Brendan Todd was another one.

I think it was Brendan Todd.

Either way, when draftings pulled their market down,

they set everyone to minus 10,000.

A guy bet on Brendan Todd,

like 20 bucks on Brendan Todd,

or I don't know, a hundred bucks or something.

Yeah.

Something worthwhile.

And then they reset everyone's odds

to my money.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

And then they reset everyone's odds to minus 10,000.

So the algorithm gave them a cash out at minus 10,000.

There was one guy who cleared 400K.

Joe told me about that.

And I thought that they didn't get their money.

They did get their money.

There's nothing Joe told me about that.

They can't play a draft.

Kings anymore.

But they got their money.

There's other places.

Yeah.

There's other places.

Underdog.

Code mail.

It decayed as a payout.

No.

Probably so.

Yeah.

For sure.

All right.

One and done.

Before we get out of here.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I don't hate that.

I don't really know what to do.

Like.

Is this a spot where you would burn Scott?

Maybe something.

Maybe play it.

All the grass not going to teach.

Yeah.

This is going to be the pick this week.

Sure.

Sure.

He's the.

He's the Lowry of last week.

And there's four million.

It's not 3.6.

Yeah.

So.

I can see a lot of Rory.

You can see a lot of fits this week.

But I do.

I think Zander or Collin are kind of a little bit of a pivot there.

Yeah.

I agree with.

I like Collin more than Zander.

I was thinking about using Sheffler.

So.

Because as much as I talk shit against Sheffler.

I still think he should be the favorite to win.

And I do think that the narrative is starting to become a little bit like.

If I'm talking about it.

I'm not the only one talking about.

Yeah.

That.

This could be.

He's already used in 25% of leagues that I'm looking at right now.

Is this a week where people go to him or do they wait like.

Maybe he's in better form for Memorial when you're going to get the same amount of money.

Or you just burn him here.

Hope he wins.

Peace out.

See you later, feel.

At the beginning of the year.

I'm not going to use him at the players.

For me, it's between Bay Hill and Memorial.

If it Bay Hill, he's not ready.

I'm going to use it Memorial.

If it doesn't work out of Memorial, there'll be another spot.

You know, you will.

And you still have him late.

And some people will burn him by that.

And then at that point, you're making a nice pivot using it.

But what I'm thinking now is he actually the pivot in this field.

He could be very much well.

We're going to be more on than he is.

Fits is going to be more on than he is.

Yeah.

And eventually like people will want to like talk.

I've already used Tommy and Zander.

So I can't use them.

So it's important to understand the rules to any contest that you enter.

Right?

So I got entered in Gary Williams golf channel.

Right?

The five clubs guys they invited me to be in there like pick them pool.

And I figured it was like a one and done.

So I was treating it as a one and done.

And I'm in last place.

Like I'm literally last place below behind like J billis and like the whole crew.

And they're all like Keith, which probably I go, it's one and done.

Like you guys have already burned all these people.

They go, no, you could pick everybody five times.

Oh, God.

Are you kidding me right now?

So they were like.

I saw I was like, oh, you should know the rules.

So know the rules.

So this week, they were like, everyone get your picks.

And I was like, Scotty done.

Right?

And and and be quite honest with you.

I think what you I'm going to go call on this week.

But I think Scotty's a fine is a great pivot this week.

I love the pivot place.

And you listen to it.

If you if you use Sheffler and we'll see how the season turns out.

But if you don't get a winner or a second place from him in a major elevated event,

you've made a bad pick.

And that could cost you your season because you used him at the wrong time.

100%.

However, I do think that fits will be the most owned.

I think that Rory will be the second most owned.

I agree with you there.

And then how much does that leave for Sheffler?

Do enough people think like me that they're do enough people think like me

that they're being sneaky by taking Sheffler that all of a sudden these 15%.

It was the worst pick in the world.

Then the penalty wins.

Then the pivot's probably Zander again.

Zander has ever played well here.

Is Andrew ever played here?

You know, he played last year, came back from the rib and Jerry made the cut.

If you were going more off the board.

So I think that if you were just looking like you're and you have to remember

that the size of these contests matter.

Oh, yeah.

Like in our three man one and done, I use fits.

Like there's no downside to using fits.

Yeah.

I used fits in that one.

I used Lowry last week.

I didn't touch Lowry in the big ones.

Big sense.

But in the three man.

Lowry perfect.

You give me a T8.

Lowry were good.

I used a whole guard last week.

Yeah.

But in the big one that I'm in, I used Rasmus Huyger.

Because I figured everyone's using Nikolai or Lowry.

I'll use Rasmus.

No one's using him.

I was right.

He came nice for whatever he came.

Yeah.

But it didn't work out.

That's good.

Well, okay.

But the fact that Lowry didn't win.

What was ninth then?

Only probably 100 grand.

100 grand.

So I lost 600 grand of the field.

I dropped 20 in the race for the Mayo Cup.

I went from 20th to 26th.

Oh, yeah.

It was no big deal.

Yeah.

If Lowry wins, I go to 60th.

But because he doesn't win and gets a three-way chop a second.

He doesn't get that much money.

Oh, yeah.

I feel like the difference isn't all that big.

And it was sort of a fade on him,

knowing that he was going to be the most popular guy.

Which he was.

He, Nikolai, and Gerard were way above everyone else.

So this week, I think that the Rory and Fitz

are going to be way above everyone else.

Yeah.

You can use them.

I'm not saying don't use them.

I'm just saying that I'm not going to use them.

Again, you and I.

Because I get this is one of my favorite conversations of the week.

Because they are weeks where I don't believe in pivoting.

And this would be a week still where I think with four million on the line.

You want to use someone good.

I don't want to say.

I'm not saying don't take me down further.

I'm going to say somebody like I so I'm looking at the board there.

I think Hadecki is a good place.

Oh, okay.

So this is where I want to get to.

If you had to go to this next level.

Yeah.

I think that Harris English is a good play.

I'm not betting him.

I did.

I barely used him.

I would take that's Yama over English.

Okay.

And Matthew almost are even used by 40% of the field too.

Which is helpful.

That fewer people are going to use him.

I just know that no one's going to like.

You're getting Harris English like 0.5%.

And I think that.

He isn't proved so much with his driver.

Yeah.

And he fits that.

If you just purse this back to last year, right?

Yeah.

Russell Henley's the winner.

Yeah.

Who's the bigger cop for us?

The only thing Harris English like the same guy.

They gain their strokes exactly the same way.

Good driving.

Henley's better with his irons.

I would say that he's just better on a player.

Which is why I'm like.

Yeah.

But Harris is a good.

He's a good iron player.

There's a.

Harris again.

Great US Open player.

And this style player.

This is that.

That type of golf course.

I'm going to swing it back to the first thing that you told me about Bay Hill.

The repetitiveness of the whole.

The same.

Detraction.

Everyone puts on Tory Pines.

Yep.

Harris is one of Tory Pines.

Jason Day is one of Tory Pines.

Jason Day is one of Bay Hill.

We've seen a lot of guys win a Tory and win a Bay Hill over the years.

So look, that's.

I can't push back on Harris.

I know.

I don't know if I'm going to get there.

But I think that like in this range, people will use nap.

They will use Ludwig.

You know what I mean?

Yeah.

No one is touching him.

And I bet you if I look at the win simulator, English is above the ball.

I bet.

Well, let's go find out.

That's my theory on the matter.

We have the data to see if I'm right or wrong on this.

Tournament simulation.

Win equity in this field.

Scotty, Tommy, Rory, Xander, Nico etcha, Varia.

He was second last week.

Russell Henley, Strocka, who I did.

Oh, I love to see Strocka out there.

See who, Minwoo, your boy, Minwoo.

Yep.

No, so nap would have been.

So I was wrong on English.

I hate English.

Don't listen to me.

I think that he's a good play.

English.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

He fits this type of, fits this type of golf.

When I think about, like, throw the stats out, the players that would do well.

Yeah.

Here's English comes to mind.

Yeah.

Keith Stewart, tell everyone about Read the Line.

Read the Line.com.

We've definitely covered the PGA Tour, the LPGA.

Go there.

Subscribe.

Try us for free.

There'll be some fee picks there.

If you love it, like $10 a month, folks.

Come on.

We won.

Hannah Green last week, 27 to 1.

Nico.

Nico.

I mean, the show was, the show was scintillating last week.

We had the final word for once.

You are.

We're going to try to get the final word on Bay Hill again to make it easy on you.

I put the link to Keith's newsletter down in the description.

Hit that.

My newsletter too.

That's also completely free.

You ain't never going to get charged for that.

You can find all the losing bets, but sometimes winners.

Sometimes winners.

You can find them down there.

So smash the like and sub to the channel while you're here.

I'm Pat Mayoth.

Thank you.

That's so fast.

Oh, what's here?

Come on.

I was almost out of here.

We got to go rapid fire.

Hit me.

We're live rapid fire.

That's true.

Yeah.

Yes.

Biggest pet peeve on an airplane.

You were on one today.

The lady sitting next to me.

There we go.

I kept leaning over to look at the fucking window.

At one point I had the window seat.

I had the window seat.

I told her, I will switch seats with you.

If you need to be looking out the window, she's, oh, no, don't mind me, don't mind me.

Now, she's leaning over.

I was like, if you want the fucking window seat, buy a fucking window seat.

If you want to look at the window the entire goddamn time.

And then I'm offering.

It's like nicely before I'm agitated about it.

Like, I don't care where I sit.

I prefer to sit on the aisle because I drink like 18 coffee.

I need to go take a piss.

And I'm not going to go take a piss and try to like get around you.

I'll sit here, scratch my knees and make sure it goes away kind of thing.

I would prefer to be on the aisle.

You would very clearly prefer to, I'm already sitting now.

Like, Jesus fucking Christ.

Just driving me insane.

Normally it would be just that people would stand up right away like fucking get a life.

But I know some people.

You're a tall man.

I can see you like wanting to stretch your legs.

I'm a short man.

Like my legs are stretched out the entire time.

I can sit on the smallest seat on the plane.

I am comfortable.

It doesn't matter to me.

I have an aisle guy for sure.

But like, I like aisle and I like first class.

That's what I like.

Oh, I mean.

But that's not what I had.

So I offered to like, I'll just take aisle.

How about that?

But no, no, no, no.

I'm already sitting.

Fuck off.

I could tell you're bougie.

All right, Scotty, you're Rory this week.

Rory.

Do you have any phobias?

No, nothing that would like be debilitated.

You know, I don't like heights.

But that doesn't mean I didn't go bungee jumping in Paris, Alan.

Ooh.

Like, I go bungee jumping?