ATP Barcelona + ATP Semifinal Picks – 4/17/26 | Tennis Gambling Podcast (Ep. 630)

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And welcome everyone to the tennis gambling podcast here on of these sports gambling podcasts.

No work currently, Friday, night, April 17th, around nine PM Eastern time. I'm Rosso Escaro

and show once again going solo for this pod. Time getting to the breakdown of the semi-final

matchups taking place in Barcelona and in Munich. So I'm going to write down those four matches

taking place on Saturday. In a few minutes, pour it into that though. A brief reminder,

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or Spotify or Apple. So once again, check it wherever you get your podcasts and let it

slide. So moving on into the actual recap of what happened in the last episode for the lock-and-dog

picks. Back to back sweeps for us. A nice, easy collection of winners there. For the lock, we had fun

second and Shelton first four games. Two, two, a minus one, 30. Never end out ended up getting

there pretty easily. As we saw, both guys hold and really never threatened. I believe Shelton had

a duce in the first service game. I don't believe Funseka had a break point in that game.

I want to quickly just check to make sure I'm not, you know, remembering this incorrectly.

Yeah, we had no break points in the first four games. So a nice, easy win there for the lock.

Eventually, Shelton did break and win the first set, but not our problem as we had the first

four games. So nice win there for the lock. For the dog, never end out, we backed

holder once again, who's been on the warp path and he beat Nory Handley. Again, for the second

time this year, as he really took control, he had a hard time holding serve early, then he settled

in and we know Nory is not a great server anyway, but holder has been really, really good and

unfortunately for Nory, he just could not keep up. So a nice win for holder who keeps winning in

straight sets for about the third straight week at this point, but either way, we keep backing

him and he has been our newfound cash cow for the podcast. Nice sweep there again, though. Back-to-back

sweeps will try to keep her rolling for the semi finals. Now for the actual recap of what happened

on Friday, we had a little bit more drama on this day than we did on the previous day,

but still not much. I mean, for Barcelona, no drama at all. We ended up seeing a very straight

forward collection of matches as Rubelev ended up beating Mockich in straight sets. We thought

he'd cover and he did a Majedovic B-Borgis. A Borgis had a couple of chances there to win the first set,

didn't do so, lost in a breaker, ate six, and then got steamrolled in the second set. So nice

win there by the qualifier as Majedovic advances into the semis. Rubelev, though, one comfortably.

Fees ended up beating Mockich. Match was closer than the 6364 indicated, but either way,

Fees seemed like he was the better player for the entire match. Not going to call that a fluke

outcome by any means. Fees, though, faced zero break points in the entire match. He kind of

hosted throughout and nice win for him. And then we had holder who once again beat Nory in straight

sets while only dropping five games in the entire match. So really no drama besides the first set

in the first match, which was Majedovic taking on Borgis. Every other set was pretty straight forward

and we saw basically chalk win every single match handily. Fees, though, was a slight dog,

pews even money. So once again, not that much of a dog, but besides that, it was pretty smooth

sailing for a lot of the favorites and Fees was able to beat Mockich in straight sets as well.

I'm moving on to Munich. This one was a little bit more, I'd say entertaining.

Caboli did be Capriva 6362. It was close for a bit and then Caboli jumped them at the end of

the second set at the end of the first set, I mean, and that carried over into the entire second set.

It's a nice win there for Caboli. Zverev, though, beats Rondolo in three fun match there. Zverev was

up a break into the first set, gave it back and then got broken again. And then he absolutely buried

Serondolo in the last two sets, lost the first set 75 and then he lost two games in the rest of the

match. He won 6062. So Zverev flipped the switch and was able to dominate the rest of the match for

the last two sets. Shelton, though, and then a beating funseka in the biggest upset of the day

as Shelton was around plus 175. Good for him. I won the first set and he dropped the second

and you figured funseka would find a way being on being on a play, of course. And then

Shelton found a break midway through the third set and then a holding and he just played very well.

I mean, simply put, you won 84% of his first serve points, 68% of his second serve points and the

break that funseka had in the second set was the only break point chance that funseka had in

the entire match. So once again, Shelton served very well and funseka really had no answers and

you ended up seeing Shelton break away in the third set. But nice win there for Shelton as

he advances into the semis for the second straight year in Munich. Last but not least, though,

Mulcan as an even money underdog beat Choppo. We did call that one. We thought there was some

value on Mulcan who is a very solid clay player when healthy. The issue has been durability

for the last couple of years. But he was a former top 40 guy years ago who's a clay specialist

and he really gave Choppo fits. It felt like Choppo, of course, an unforced airway didn't happen.

He saw Mulcan keep it in play and really did a good job of picking the right variety.

To mess with Choppo's timing and Choppo just pumped it away too many shots. But nice win there for

the dog as Mulcan won in straight sets. But once again, out of the eight matches played, six of them

ended in straight sets. So once again, not too much drama on the actual card. But either way,

we had a very good episode as we ended up sweeping back-to-back episodes with the first four games

prop, which I still love as a niche prop and draft Kings does have the best price on that market.

And then holder who keeps rolling as we had him in straight sets as well. So once again, good

episode for us before actual tennis. Not the best of days, but overall still a couple of three

setters so it could have been worse. Now for the update on the outrights, we're looking decently

for both not as good as we were looking the day before. For Barcelona, we did lose one of our two

outrights as we had Musetti at 16 to 1. And of course, he got buried by fees. However, we have

holder who's still available at 28 to 1. So hopefully we end up cashing that long shot.

Going to be a tough road, but it is what it is. 28 to 1 to a semi can't really complain there.

And for Munich, we still have Zerev at around 225. And that's it. We'll head Fonseca when

they're losing a 9 to 1. And we had to be low as the long shot who lost two Fonseca in the first

round of plus 5,000. But we still have Zerev at 225. And we have holder at 28 to 1. So we still have

one outright left for each event in the semis. And hopefully we get there. But we'll see what happens.

Zerev, of course, is a decent favor against Caboli in the semis and he is defending champion in his

home country. So that one does look pretty good. But we'll see what happens. We'll see if we can

catch a couple more outrights. But either way, only time will tell. Anyway, before we get into the

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Welcome back everyone to the tennis game podcast. Finish going to the recap of what happened

in the quarter finals time to move on into the preview of the semis. Now for the actual schedule,

once again, you have the unique and Barcelona matches starting at the exact same time.

So we are going to be doing Barcelona first. Now this one should be entertaining,

but I do think it is going to be potentially very, very intriguing because there are a couple

of matches that look pretty competitive on paper. So starting off at the first match for Barcelona,

we have Rublev taking on Magetavitch. Magetavitch, of course, being the qualifier who's been looking

very sharp so far in the event. And Rublev, we know as a solid clay player, should be a fun matchup.

However, Rublev, despite being a top 10 Calder player or top 20 Calder player against the qualifier,

not that big of a favorite. He's minus 182. Magetavitch is around plus 145.

For the spread, minus 2.5 Rublev, plus 2.5 Magetavitch, and the overrunner is at 22 and a half

game. So for the sexual matchup, there is no head to head history between them. However,

you have some stats for the event so far. Reading off the paths right now, you have Rublev,

who has been looking fine. He's gone off to some slow starts though, but he hasn't been able to

bounce back as he has won all three matches in straight sets. Good competition, too. A beaten

Navone, who just won his first ever title on the ATP in Bucharest. So he beat him in straight sets,

beat Sonnego in straight sets. So he knows how they're pretty underwhelming career for his actual

skill set, but he still has won a couple of ATP titles. So that's still a good straight set win,

and Mocketsch who ended up beating in straight sets. Now for Magetavitch, he has been good as well

through qualifying, only dropping one set in the entire tournament, beat Galbus in straight sets,

beat Hallis in three that was qualifying, beat Trungoliti in straight sets, beat Diminauer in straight

sets, and beat Borgis in straight sets. So once again, we have two guys in very good form,

and that might be why the line is pretty short on Rublev. It was actually shorter. There were some

minus 140s when the line just dropped. Of course, money came in on Rublev, but the point is it's still

not exactly a massive number in terms of money line price on Rublev. Now for the actual numbers,

though, in terms of serving, Magetavitch has been serving a lot better than Rublev, which might

be why the line is shorter than you might have expected. So for the actual numbers, Magetavitch is

winning right now 74 plus percent of his first serve points, and 57 plus percent of his second

serve points. By comparison, Rublev has been winning 66 percent of his first serve points,

and around 49 percent of his second serve points. So Magetavitch has been serving much better,

8 percent better on first serve, and 9 percent better give or take on second serve, which might

suggest that Magetavitch is actually quite life to win this match. And I think that Rublev

will keep this match once again, of course, under his terms, which is a lot of, I'd say,

hard-hitting forehands and backhands, and we'll see if the Unforced Air count rises. But both

guys do play with a lot of firepower, and I do think they're going to end up seeing a bunch of

holds of serve by comparison to most clay events. I don't mind the over in this one. I think

you're looking at what should be a close matchup. I think that the line itself is kind of daring

to take Rublev, and I think even if he does end up winning, I think Magetavitch can serve well

enough to hang around and keep this match close. So I don't actually mind going for the over

in this one at 22 and a half at around minus 125. You can also take the Rublev team total over,

which I saw it around, like, minus 130, minus 135. I think the match would be close to them people

think. I think that Rublev could actually be an upset alert for this one. But I do think that

Magetavitch is not going to go down quietly. I think I'll end up swinging, and I think he might

end up being able to win at least one set in this matchup. I think it's close, though. I think

Rublev is picked by a lot of people to cruise because of the ranking differential and because of

Rublev's history of winning ETP events. He's won 1,000 events before, for example, on Clay.

But I do think Rublev is once again serving significantly worse than Magetavitch, and that might

be enough to open the door to a certain degree of Magetavitch might sneak in and steal it. So I

think there's some value, actually, on the over in this one. I think Rublev wins, but I think that

the over 2.5 sets of intriguing. You can find that at a decent plus money price. That's around plus

125. You can probably shop around and find a plus 130. But I do think Magetavitch hangs in there,

so I'll go with Rublev's team total over and the full match over as my main thoughts for this one.

Moving on to the next matchup. Another close match on the books. This one's actually closer.

We have fees taken on Hodor, and for this one, fees minus 150 give or take. Hodor's around plus 120

give or take as well. For the spread minus 1.5 or fees plus 1.5 for Hodor, and the over under is at

22.5. Now for the actual path so far, both players have looked quite sharp to up to this point.

As we saw fees almost lose early in his first match at the event, as he had an absolute war

against op main. Since then, though, he's been good. Beat Nakashima in straight sets handling

the beat Musetti, and he wants to get not facing a break point in the entire match. Now for Hodor,

he's been a madman. As we saw him win in Markech, he won the entire tournament, first in his

career, and on top of that, he has been rolling through sets. In fact, he has won a total of,

let me just quickly check this right now. That's 10, that's 12, that's 13. He's won 14 straight sets.

So he is absolutely rolling right now. So we'll see what gives. He is of course in Spain,

so he does have the crowd support here for the 19 year old. I think this match is an absolute

banger. I think it's going to be the match of the day. I think it could go either way.

Fees has looked good enough to definitely beat Hodor, and beating Musetti in straight sets

is impressive. However, Hodor, we've seen dominate. I'd argue though, Fees is better than the players

he has beaten during this actual run that he's been on. Reading off the actual win streak here,

LaHovitch, who we know is solid, but still not the guy used to be, but still a solid clay player.

Markech, that one went three. That's still a good win. A more dropped out because he ended up

getting injured, so that was a retirement win. Beat Carabelli ended up beating Trungoliti,

which was of course the Cinderella story in that final. Beat Munnar, who would not play it for

a couple of months, beat Carabelli again, and beat Nori. So the best opponent there is arguably,

once again, Markech, and Fees, of course, is definitely better than Markech. So yes, I am aware

that Hodor has been cashing us a lot of bets lately on the show. However, I'm not going to blindly

take him, assuming that he's going to be able to continue dominating, because Fees is definitely

better than the opponents that I just listed during that winning streak. So I think the line makes

sense. I think Fees should be favored, but I do think Hodor, of course, is going to be tricky to

deal with. But if Fees plays the way that he did against Moosetti, he's going to win. I think Fees

just right now is playing at a level that is tough to pick against him. Even though crowd support,

of course, will be heavily in favor of Hodor. I think you can argue if you want to go for Hodor

money line. That could be an option, because he has been great. You want to take him on his

home surface in Spain. But I think Fees probably wins. I think Fees is playing at a level

that can definitely at least match Hodor, or at least potentially outplay him. Hodor has been

solid, but I think Fees can return as well as he did against Moosetti, especially in the back end

of that first set. I think that he'll be able to win this. I don't mind Fees minus 1-0 games.

I think he'll end up getting the job done. I hope I'm wrong, because we have Hodor to win the

event of 28-1. But Fees does look really, really good. And beating Moosetti that handily on

clay definitely deserves some recognition. And I'm going to give it to him. Now, Hodor once again

has been rolling in all these sets against bad competition. But Fees is really, really good.

So based on that, I agree with Gretztek, who's saying that Fees is served as much better than Hodor's.

I agree. I think that Hodor has a pretty decent serve. I think that Hodor is improving on that,

because he's only 19 years old. But I think that Fees does have more firepower and at least from

a serve perspective, which might be enough to get the job done here. So I agree. I think that Fees

will be able to hold more regularly than Hodor. Hodor, though, is a great returner. So watch out

on some potential Fees' second serves, because it could be a bit vulnerable. And we've seen Hodor

really just be willing to unload on second serve returns. So I do think Fees is first service

better. The second serve, though, can be a bit of a liability at times. And maybe that's the path

for Hodor. But for the actual number itself, I think that Fees minus 1.5 games is how I would go

about it. I think it'll be close, but I think Fees right now is more proven. And I think that he

has once again beaten better competition so far into this event, because we know how good Musetti

can be on clay. So I'll go with Fees. I hope I'm wrong, though. I hope Hodor survives a 28 to 1.

But I think that Fees once again, it should be a little bit more expensive. I think it should be

like minus 170 by the price of myself. But I think that'll go with Fees minus 1.5 games for this one.

Moving on to Munich for this one, you have lines that are a little bit larger than what we saw

in Barcelona. For the first one, we have the largest spread by a mile on the card. Zverev, who's

around minus 5.30 against Caboli, who's around plus 360. For the spread, minus 4.5 for Zverev,

plus 4.5 for Caboli, and the over under is at 21.5 games. For that territory, they faced off a

total of two times. One time in the French Open last year, one time in Hala, and Zverev didn't win

all five sets without dropping a set. For an joke, another was one tie break in the middle,

but there was a 6-2 and a 6-1. So Zverev won pretty comfortably, besides one set. And if you

want to mention grass, even though, of course, different surface, it was in Germany. That one was

close as Zverev did win 6-4, 7-6. Though we know Hala plays extremely fast, and we saw Zverev not

get broken in that entire match. So Zverev, I think, should be a big favorite. Caboli, though,

is very talented. We saw him show it in the last set and a half against Capriva in the last round.

He hasn't dropped the set yet, though, ended up beating the Dura Palo Merro, ended up beating

birds in straight sets, and beat Capriva in straight sets. For Zverev, we saw him drop a set

to Cigmanavitch and a set to Surondolo, but he has been winning. So the question is, can Caboli keep

this match somewhat close, or is he getting buried? I'm picking Zverev to win. I'm not going to

pick an upset, but I think Caboli can hang in there. I'm not picking to get totally destroyed

in this match-up. Yes, I understand that Zverev played insanely well in the last two sets against

Surondolo, but he also did drop a set. I'm not going to ignore that happened. I think that Caboli

can play well enough if he is firing properly to make this a competitive match-up. Will he win?

No. I think that eventually the unforced error count will get up there. I think Zverev's too

consistent, and I think that Zverev eventually will wear him down over time. But can I see a path

for Caboli? There's still a very solid top 20 caliber player. Can I see a path where he ends up

keeping this match close and then it loses in like a breaker and like a 6-3? I can see that. I'm

not picking him to get totally buried in this match-up. I don't see any value on Zverev to dominate.

Zverev's straight sets is like minus 165, which you can argue might be a little bit on the

cheap side. I thought that should be like minus 180 minus 190, but for the actual game spread,

I'm really not going to lay four and a half. I think it's Caboli your pass for the actual

game spread, but I do think Zverev does win in straight sets. But if you want to hand me like a

6-4, 6-4 win, a straight forward straight set win, which does involve Caboli still covering

the four and a half game spread, I think that's intriguing. So I'm going to go with once again,

Caboli to cover the four and a half, but I do think Zverev ends up winning and probably wins

in straight sets. If you want to go for the team total angle here, Caboli is at eight and a half

games. You can get the under at even money and I don't mind that. Yes, I understand you can still

get a potential tie break in there and still have a chance to win because Caboli can still lose the

set 6-2, et cetera. Or like I said before, 6-4, 6-4 could be an option. But I don't mind

maybe Caboli if you want to go for him to keep this match competitive. There's definitely a path

for the team total under to get there at even money. And I think that's kind of intriguing.

But give me Zverev once again to win straight sets though at 165. You can argue for, but I think

team total under for Caboli at eight and a half even money. The value I think is better when you

compare the two of them. But I think Caboli can keep this match somewhat close. So once again,

I will not be taking Zverev to cover the four and a half. I think it's Caboli plus four and a half

or pass from a spread perspective. Moving on to the last match, we have Mokan taking on Shelton.

Shelton minus 250. You have Mokan at around plus 195. For the spread minus 3 and a half for Shelton plus

102. Plus 3 and a half for Mokan at minus 134. For the overrunner in games, I see 22 and a half.

Now, Shelton to win straight sets, by the way, is around plus money. It's plus 107.

Mokan to an ace set is minus 140. Now for the path so far, Mokan we know used to be a very solid

clay player at a bunch of injuries. And because of that, his rankings plummeted in the ATP rankings.

But recently he's been healthy and he's been good. We saw him win a couple of rounds there in

Bucharest, did a lose to Navone in three there. Shut up in Munich when they're qualifying,

ended up beating Nava, B-Bublik, sorry, beat Altmeyer and B-Choppo. So not exactly elite competition,

Bublik is a very good win and he beat him handily, even though we know that clay is not his best

surface. But still, he looks comfortable and he's won four straight matches in straight sets.

It looks very good in Munich. As for Shelton, he looked good as well. I did have a struggle

against a Nava. Did he blocks in straight sets? Blocked though a couple of set points in the second

set, but he still won that one in straight sets. And he ended up beating Fonseca in three,

which was definitely the best win that he's had on clay in a while. Now for the actual pricing,

no head to history, by the way, I think Shelton should win. I think that his firepower will translate

well. He is the defending runner up of this event before. And beating Fonseca does his

or flowers. I thought it looked very good. Once again, only one break point faced in the entire

match. Mulcan does use a lot of topspin, a lot of looping forehand. So maybe he can be able to

make it an absolute grind behind the baseline. But Shelton should win a lot of free points on the

serve by comparison. Mulcan does have the lefty slice serve out wide, but still not a great serve.

It's wise a clay specialist. I think Shelton eventually gets the job done. But I don't see it being

close. I mean, I don't see it being a lopsided match. I see it being close. I think Mulcan has proven

that you can't really underestimate him in this environment. And the fact of the line is a little

bit short on the spread of three and a half plus money on Shelton tells me that Mulcan can keep

this match close. I mean, you're looking at the tie break odds. Tiebreaker is plus one 12,

which is once again, pretty cheap when you have one player who's just not a great server.

But I see it being close. I think that Shelton won by winning. I can see three sets in this one.

I think that Mulcan will not go away quietly. I think he can win a set. I understand why it's so

juiced for him to win a set. But I do think that Mulcan will keep this match close. If he beats

Shelton, would I be shocked? No. I think Mulcan is really good on clay. But I will pick Shelton.

I think Shelton's firepower will get the job done eventually. I think he'll come forward a bit

to shorten the points. And I think that Mulcan's serve is still vulnerable enough for Shelton to break

a time or two in each set. So give me Shelton in this one. But I think Mulcan, once again,

keeps it close. I'll go Shelton in three as my thoughts for this one. Anyway, that's going to wrap

it up for the preview. I actually realized accidentally had the wrong banners there for the last

couple of minutes. I meant to say the semis for Munich. So my bad, I did not mean quarter finals.

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Welcome back, everyone, to the tennis game podcast.

Finish going through the preview of the semi-finals in Barcelona and in Munich.

Time to move on into the lock and dog picks.

For the lock, I'm going back to the last match in Munich that we talked about,

and to go to the Shelton match as he takes on, once again, Mulcan.

Give me the Shelton team total over 12 and a half at minus 135.

Shelton has been a bit of a marathon guy lately.

He's gone over this team total in four straight.

So we've seen a couple of three setters in there, a couple of tie breaks in there,

a couple of ways to get there.

But I do think Shelton will find himself in another long match or at least a long set.

And I do think there's some value on this team total over.

Each of Shelton's last five matches, by the way, against lefties have been wars.

Five straight matches against lefties have not ended in straight set.

So Shelton, for whatever reason, has not been that sharp against lefties.

And I do think that might end up being a common theme in this one as well.

I see it being tough. Mulcan couldn't theory win this match.

And if it goes three, I still think Shelton can get to this team total,

despite not winning.

But with the recent hit rate, four straight going over,

and with Shelton's recent struggles against lefties,

I do think that the team total is a pretty good value play for Shelton.

I am not picking him to lose in straight sets.

So I do think Shelton will get it at least one set under his belt

before we might end up getting a marathon.

So give me the team total over as my lock for the show.

For the dog, I'm going to go with the match between Magetovic and Rubelev,

bit of a D Gen prop here.

I will take Magetovic to break surf first at plus 110.

I read off the serving numbers before.

Magetovic, though, has been serving much better than Rubelev so far.

74.4% of first serve points and 57.1% of second serve points.

Rubelev is roughly 8% worse on first serve points and roughly 9% worse on second serve points.

So Magetovic has been serving like a madman in the event so far.

And Rubelev has been serving OK, not exactly that well.

But he's gone off some really slow starts in these matches.

Rubelev has actually been broken first in all three matches at this event.

I believe he's gone broken in his first service game in all three matches of this event.

Now the problem is Rubelev immediately breaks back and then he breaks again.

And that's why he's not dropped a set yet in the event.

But he has been a breakdown in the first set in every match so far.

So I do think that Magetovic could jump him early.

We've seen everybody break Rubelev early in the first set.

And Magetovic has been serving very well.

So I like the price here, plus 110.

It's backing a current trend.

Magetovic's serve has been really good in the event.

I think plus 110 is a good price.

I'll take it.

That's on draft Kings, by the way, if you're looking for this prop.

So once again, the lock and lock picks for the semis, the in Barcelona and Munich.

Locks going to be on Shelton team total over 12 and a half games at minus 135.

For the dog, give me Magetovic to break first in the match at plus 110.

It's going to wrap it up for the show.

Back once again for the final matches in Barcelona and Munich next episode.

Until next time, five minutes later, I show radio.

Check out the podcast and Spotify or Apple.

Check it out on YouTube or on once again, the SGP and app.

And when you check it out, also help the show grow.

Like, subscribe on YouTube.

Leave a rating and review on Spotify or Apple.

Until next time, good old tall of you and all of your bets.

Bye everyone.

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We're betting on game day as made easier with all the promos and player props you need

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