ATP Indian Wells Round of 64 Predictions: Tiafoe-Brooksby, Mensik-Giron, Khachanov-Fonseca Best Bets, Odds

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You're listening to Betting Weekly Game Bet Match on the Betrivers Network.

Hello everybody, welcome on in.

It's Betting Weekly Game Bet Match.

It's your number one tennis betting podcast and YouTube show, Fortune Association with Betrivers, your hometown sportsbook.

I am Nigel Seedy, different surroundings, different room, but same place, still here in Dubai waiting to get home.

Back to the UK, to see my old Muckishon Calvert, who is sitting in his bunker, fully protected, trying to find us the winners at the INV World Tournament.

Thought through or how are you mate?

I'm fine, thank you.

Yeah, I'm in my bunker, if you want to call it that, in my garden office.

Sun is shining, it's actually not bad.

Just waiting for you to come back in and set foot on the shores of Blighty, which hopefully will be very soon.

Well, yeah, I mean, it's a waiting game.

It's a waiting game.

You buy your raffle ticket, so hopefully you get the call you win in number and when you win in number you go and collect your prize.

That's how it feels at the moment.

But anyway, we're soldering on.

We're in, we're doing a show of unfortunately, the sound quality, obviously on the show is not as good because I can't get into that.

I can't get my microphone, my system plugged in, but we're trying to give you some winners.

The first show in a week we did, we gave you some big outright picks and we gave you some selections.

But I tell you what, I haven't watched the tennis, can't watch the tennis.

But I'll just tell you something, but I can't watch the tennis, but I tell you one thing I did.

I looked at the results and looked at the figures from our match bet speaks.

We were bloody unlucky, weren't we?

We've had some pretty room luck on the match bets in the last sort of month or so, really.

A little bit unlucky last night, I wouldn't say massively.

We've had some ridiculous bad luck in previous weeks.

Those two last night, a little bit unlucky.

Balucci should have won the first set against Diallo.

He was in command of the tie break.

Three, love and four won and then made a ton of mistakes.

He talked about it after the match actually.

Balucci was saying he should have done better in certain situations.

If he had won that set, he would have thought he would have gone on to win the match.

As it happens, he lost it and then, you know, you're in a difficult situation.

Similarly with Manorino, won the first set.

He should have won it very, very comfortable.

He won the first set, ended up losing 7-5 in the third against Baratini.

It was some effort from Baratini to be fair to Baratini.

It was some effort to come back from that situation and a big effort.

He was cramping at the end, Baratini as well.

So, yeah, a little bit unlucky.

But, yeah, you know, you find the value.

It doesn't always win.

He's a little bit of luck as well.

But, you know, we sold your all.

A couple of people stranded out here today.

I found someone who works for Wimbledon, tennis and breakfast department.

She was saying to me, she knew about all the ACP tour players stuck out

and they might see all the stories about that.

And this is tennis court until tennis courts was the road.

And, in there, today was, I can't remember his name.

I'm losing days and names and stuff like that.

You asked me a week, I'll tell you his name.

Do you remember the Korean player?

I think they used to wear glasses.

Yeah, he on chunk.

Yeah.

He's played at my result playing on the table.

I don't know if he lives here because there's a residency here.

Or he's stuck here, but he's practicing on the courts.

Across the road from where I am.

Well, there was a challenge.

There wasn't that in that area where you are that was cancelled.

The cancelled mid tournament.

Maybe he was playing in that.

I don't know because he's had so many injured problems.

His career is virtually wrecked by injury.

Made the Australian open to something final, didn't he?

Many of them.

Many, many, many.

Him and Kyle Edmund, actually.

They both made the semis, didn't they?

I think it was the same year.

And both of them really had the careers.

I won't say ended in Jong's case, but massively, massively derailed by injury.

Jong hasn't really been seen at what you would call a good level for quite a few years now,

which is a shame because he was a real promising player as was Kyle Edmund.

So it just shows you the sort of fickle nature of this sport.

Both had their careers, you know, pretty much decimated by injuries.

Well, one thing we did today is try to keep us busy during the day.

We had a tennis tournament.

I drew him in round one.

He won the tournament.

He's going to get a gold medal at the reception tonight in the lobby.

I've got been in round one, why?

True.

No, I'm joking.

It's only a second.

But he's here.

So in practice, during the day, you can go back and know you sort of fun for up.

Anyway, we are here for the tennis.

We're here for an Indian world.

It's a big thought of it.

It's the fifth tennis major.

We were talking on the preview show about the conditions and how the statistics come through

that didn't really back up your feeling, how you thought the tournament would go.

We've seen a set of matches now.

What is your magic machine and your graph or your figures tell you about how the conditions are this weekend in the world?

Yeah, it looks pretty much the same to me.

Maybe a fraction quicker, but not hugely so.

I mean, the new balls, the new Dunlop balls that they're using here this year probably react slightly differently to the pen ones.

The old pen ones, maybe that's just the difference.

The players haven't mentioned any difference.

I'm sure Medvedev will within within five minutes of him arriving.

I'm sure you'll have some things to say, but on the naked eye, it's not it's not easy from the TV act.

I always find Indian worlds a bit easy to watch and get a level on from from court side where you can really see the grittiness of the court and the way the balls fluff up on the way that way it bounces.

It doesn't look massively quicker to me.

I'd say it was pretty similar.

I'm sure, you know, in the next couple of days and players, you know, once the big bigger names come in and stop playing their matches today tomorrow, they'll tell us a bit more, but it doesn't look overly different to me.

One thing that I mentioned in the show on Sunday, which is relevant to today and probably tomorrow as well is that there is a very big trend for straight sets wins in this round, round two, going back many, many years.

71% of the matches in the last 12 additions in round two of ended in straight sets.

So if you are a better that does get involved in set betting, it's a it's a pretty strong trend. It's, yeah, 71% of the matches finishing straight set.

So yeah, good trend there to have.

And we have a decent size favorite to get involved in in round two.

Now, this is round two where the CD players, the 32 players get involved in the tournament and we have them in the tournament and they have the play pool who got through from the first round.

So the first matchup is a very, very interesting matchup in round two, a decent matchup as well.

Who is showing some signs of the form that might maybe won the win the title in Miami last year.

Obviously, he's got Miami in a couple of weeks to defend and that must got to be a prize. He always points to your defense.

His minus 278 to beat Mark and June plus two 15 spread. He was three and a half 22 and a half is the game.

So we're looking at set besting here.

Menchick is minus 109 to win this to two sets. I love you want to get that two sets of love trend.

There is a load of markets available on the betboard as website.

And the hate to hate is one meal in favor of Jacob Menchick.

He won in 2025 at win wouldn't win in this match three sets to one.

And it was 42 games in that best of five sets.

Menchick always good for over sets, so one and a half.

But I suppose your look at Menchick and think.

Is he is he look at those points? He's got defend next week in Miami, rather than this week even in New Wales.

Yeah, I think conditions favor a bit more there than they do here.

It looks a short price to me on on Jacob Menchick. I wouldn't be playing the two-neil Menchick here.

I certainly hope it doesn't come in because I'm kind of going the other way.

Not not two-neil gear on, but.

I suppose in Menchick in some way, just think it's a big advantage here for Marcos gear on.

Having played one match in these tricky conditions already.

Menchick coming in cold, he has not played for 10 days.

Okay, he's been hitting here or whatever, but it's not the same as the match court.

And it depending on what court he's hitting on and then what court he plays on.

There can be a massive difference. Beretini talked about it last night.

The difference between, I think he was on stadium two, Beretini said in one or two.

And he practiced on the outside courts and the difference is huge,

particularly if you've got a night match as well.

You know, gear on showed against Naveoni that it takes time to adapt to these Indian Wales conditions.

And it's a tough opener for Menchick and he is unproven so far in these unique conditions.

If you look at the Indian Wales records, gear on.

Pretty good win rate, 57% win rate here.

Service points one over 10 points one, total of 98. Menchick has only played I think four matches.

He's won half of them, 50% win rate and his total is 98.5.

Very similar set as statistics.

Gear on played a lot more matches and won a few more.

Gear on made the last 16, actually last year beat Kasper Rude,

beat Baslash Philly, beat Papyrin, ended up losing a final set tie break to our two feasts.

And you know, we've beaten a few times this season, Gear on.

Again, a little bit unlucky with him.

We think we lost in the semi finals within Mid Auckland, which was unfortunate.

But he's been in great form generally this season.

He's also got Andre Agassi in his corner at the minute,

which is probably a good sign for him.

I feel like Agassi was there with him when he won the title in Newport a couple of years ago.

He's kind of, he's not a full time coach by any means, but they're quite good friends.

And you know, they've spoken a lot about tennis over the years.

And he has been in his corner several times, Agassi.

He's there right now.

I think Gear on said something like he'd having lost the first set to Navoni.

He said, I can't lose this match because I've got Agassi watching and he ended up winning it.

If you look at what he's done at main level this season, Gear on 62% win rate.

Service points, one every turn points, one title of 102.

It's very good.

Mensick is better, hence the odds.

77% win rate and a title of 104.6 for Mensick, which is very good indeed.

And that's where the odds come from.

But again, Mensick looking deeper into those stats.

He's relying very heavily on that first serve again.

Or still.

79% of those points won for Mensick.

Only 47% of second serve points won.

And if you're in Indian Wells, you know, first serves don't get you as far as other venues like Miami

and slicker, quicker conditions, you know, Dubai or whatever.

He's obviously defending next week.

I'm not saying he's going to 100% prioritize Miami, but I think if he loses early,

I don't think it'll be an absolute disaster for him.

I just think this tournament, you need to be a good returner as well.

Not that Mensick is a poor returner, but the second serve points aren't good.

If you look at their heads ahead, it's only that one match, as you said,

at Wimbledon on grass, of course, but it shows again, Mensick relying very heavily on first serve.

80% first serve points won in that match.

Only 40.8 second serve points won in that match.

Gear on won 51.5% of second serve points.

So it was Gear on that was the one that was the better from the back of the court in that match.

And it's the worry with Mensick.

It's too heavily relying on the first serve.

That was on grass, of course, where you can get away with being so serve dominated a bit more.

But here, much slower, much bouncing, much grittier.

Tougher to rely on first serves windy as well.

I didn't mention the conditions, actually.

The weather on Friday, 25 degrees and 12 mile an hour wind.

It just gets a bit swirly here.

By the way, the weather as soon as it gets towards the final, I think Friday sat at his sunday.

It's going to be about 37 degrees.

A real heat wave in Indian wells as the time moves on.

But 25 degrees tomorrow.

If we look at what Gear on's done against top 20 opponents in recent times, it's impressive.

He's taken a set at least in eight of his last 10 matches against top 20 opponents.

And he does look a bit of value on the side markets.

He tends to lose tight matches.

Gear on particularly against the better players.

But I think there's two ways to attack this.

Half a point on each here.

Open in set to him.

Open in set to gear on, which is plus 170.

I think we bet rivers.

And half a point on the game spread, the plus three and a half game spread,

which I think that's been nibbled in, actually.

It's minus 124 now.

It was minus 105.

I think when I looked at earlier.

But, yeah, I think those are the two ways to attack this.

If Mensik does win it too, Neil, I'll be impressed.

Yeah.

He's got lots to live up to next week.

A lot of points to defend.

A market sure on with the legend.

Andre Agassi in his corner.

We think he's going to put up a fight on them.

A set one and the handicap as well at three and a half.

We have a battle between two Americans in the next match.

Johnson Brooks, we get as far as the TFO.

Johnson Brooks, we did well here in Dubai.

A player I oppose in pretty much every round.

I need one every round.

I thought it would be too quick for him out here.

It wasn't.

This is more his style.

And he's up against Francis TFO.

And it's minus 112 of the pair.

It's a pick a match with bet rivers.

Now, if you show me those odds two weeks ago,

I would have thought that positive.

If I was one of the best bets of the year at minus 112.

But the headhead here is very much in frame of a Johnson Brooks.

Three nil.

The headhead.

Max three times three times.

Brooks is one green in the match in Houston in 2025.

And every single match Brooks, we has one two sets to love.

We took the two sets to love trend here.

Minus 112 of the pair.

22 and a half.

The games.

Two and a half.

That's right.

Two nil Brooks.

B is two to one.

Two nil.

TFO is two to one.

Are we going with the headhead?

Are we going with the trends?

Or are we going with the Francis TFOs in a bit of a bit of form?

But we're hoping for him to show his class here.

And what could look a genuine good price?

Yeah.

I think if you're going on the head to head,

which I think I'll have to hear.

You'd be all in on Brooks.

As a slight underdog.

Again, the odds have moved since I've written this.

They're kind of joint favorites now.

But yeah, you would you would be all in.

It's it just looks a very tough opener for the seed with with Brooks.

Be obviously having played that one match already.

I mean, the headhead is is overwhelming.

Service points one and return points one.

Tells 115 to 85 in favor of of Brooks.

Be Brooks be bearing in mind he's not the strongest server by any means.

As held is served 90% of the time against Francis TFO.

And Brooks be one 45% of return points against what is the biggest server in TFO.

And a couple of those matches were played in quick conditions.

We're in 45% of return points.

Brooks be also winning 71% of second serve points against 43% for TFO.

Huge difference.

So much better in all areas.

Brooks be been in those three matches.

As I said, two of them were quick conditions at Lanter where it was very hot and quick.

Washington DC also very hot very quick.

Obviously slightly slower in Houston on the clay.

But that isn't slow clay.

By any means in Houston, it's slightly different to the European clay.

But TFO always puts in 100% in in Houston.

You can't always say that about TFO.

Doesn't always put it in or hasn't over the years in certain tournaments.

But in in Houston, he does.

And Brooks be beating in the final there.

The other factor is TFO is coming off a really physical week in Acapulco.

You know, he puts some real hard yards in there, particularly against Nakashima and Caboli as well in the final.

So he's probably going to be a little bit leaky.

What concerns me about betting Brooks be here is that TFO will not.

He'll be very aware of the nil three record.

And he'll be very keen to put that right and not go nil four against Brooks be.

But wanting to do it and being able to do it two different things.

You know, it's I think it'll take a massive effort from TFO.

In the circumstances coming off that Acapulco final and everything.

It's gone on there and a little bit of illness and stuff.

And if we look at Indian Wells records, you know, Brooks be obviously enjoys the conditions here.

70% win rate at this tournament.

Service points one in return points would turn up 103.4.

Very, very impressive indeed from Jensen Brooks be in and TFO just a 53% win rate in a total of 100.5.

And again, some surprising stats.

Brooks be actually held serve more often in Indian Wells than TFO has.

Brooks be able to 82% at the time at this tournament just 77% for TFO.

He has been hitting miss a TFO. He's had some good years and poor years.

Last year we lost to what a new key.

Obviously a poor defeat there.

And he has been very hit and miss at this tournament.

So just going to be half a point because I am concerned that TFO is going to be absolutely desperate to overturn that ahead to head.

But I think you can't overlook what's the two factors that the career series and the fact that Jensen Brooks plays really, really well in this tournament and throwing the fact that he's had imagined TFO hasn't.

It just points to a little bit of an interest on Brooks be half a point on the money line minus 112 for better rivers.

Yeah, half a point minus 112.

I think that's a very important factor that you say there when players have actually had the advantage of playing conditions like this were changeable.

I think it's a very, very factor.

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We have two more games to quickly run through.

The next match is the match between Flavio Caboli and me more kickman rich one won the head here between these two players.

Those surprise bet rivers can hardly separate and Flavio Caboli minus one free kickman of each minus one 22 spread a half total 22 and a half last time they met was literally last week in a Capoco where Caboli one two six to one.

Relication.

Yeah, I like kickman of each year.

Against just a little bit annoyed that the odds have moved slightly in the last sort of hour or so.

Which is you know often happens unfortunately when we do this show sometimes the odds do move.

I mean it's very difficult as I talked about with TFO it's always tough to come from energy sapping conditions in a Capoco where Caboli obviously won the title beating TFO in that final.

And it's you know it's a massive effort for him the way Caboli plays he doesn't win too many matches that easily it's often a physical battle with him.

He's got to come from there to obviously different conditions in Indian wells and conditions he's yet to perform in really.

Prior to that Caboli also went to the semi finals in Del Rey Beach the week before so.

He may well be a bit leaky here um Caboli as you said the pair met in the semis in a Capoco and Caboli did obviously edge it in in a final set but it was.

Yet another of those matches that catch Manovich should have won and ended up losing it in a decider he actually led that match three one in the final set.

He had a better performance rating of 7.8 versus 7.5.

He led the service points one in return points one title 104 to 96 and lost she's not unusual at all for for Keck Manovich to have bad habit that he's had his old career actually.

He's actually managed to win slightly more deciding sets this years one three of the eight he's played.

You know it could be worth betting the two nil here given the trends and given the possible fatigue about about Caboli because Caboli is yet to win a match in Indian wells he lost a Colton Smith here last year.

As a presumably quite a big favor lost to Roberta cobache by aina here.

The year before so he zero and two Indian wells Keck Manovich a good record he's I think he's made the quarter finals.

I think he's made it twice I think he made the quarters as a qualifier or lucky loser one year.

So looking at their Indian wells record Keck Manovich 57% win rate service points one in return points one title 102 so he's very comfortable with the conditions here and has had success here Caboli obviously a 0% win rate.

And a total of 92 in the two matches that he's played so it's it's a tournament that Caboli is yet to get any sort of grips with.

Keck Manovich is obviously had one match to get a tune to conditions only half a match actually because Daniel up Meyer ended up retiring I think in the second set but it's still an advantage to have played a match in you know in match conditions got yourself used to the these unique conditions here so there's a lot to like about Keck Manovich and therefore I'm not surprised that the money's come in for him I'm tempted with the two nil.

It is at the bottom end now of the odds that I would accept minus one 22 won't go any lower than that that's for sure but I'll stick with the money line one point on Keck Manovich but I wouldn't put anybody off taking a ponton on two nil here.

Yeah minus one 22 Keck Manovich plus one 80 head across the Beck Rivers app download the app you'd be able to live stream these matches as well we don't know the order of play just yet.

I will know the mobile and our course of the evening you'll be able to watch those matches progress on the bedrooms that our final match is a match we can carry into child off and Jalf on second minus one 12 to pair pick him again in another matches 22 and a half the O there's total 3 and a nil is 20 and a half 58 different markets available in this match.

And you know what you're not at like I'm when you simply the bit through I just thought I've got I've got a frequent on from secondary I just thought they could child off what he's coming through to get there.

The emotional feelings he's been having over here in Dubai again across to a market across the Istanbul getting across to Indian worlds I mean it's courageous at the best and I don't know how he can focus on the tennis match because I certainly can't focus on much going on here.

And I think from second I know you're going on a lack private jet and things like that but I think on second minus on to what an opportunity for hopefully you agree me.

Yeah I do agree with you I mean again this has moved a little bit since since I looked at it earlier you he was.

I want to say clear favorite cash on up when you certainly favorite I'm not surprised the markets at a bit of a rebase here because you said he's he's one of the players that has struggled to get to Indian Wells.

He only left to fly to L.A. yesterday and obviously the time difference between Dubai and Indian Wells is huge it's 12 hours.

So jet lag is an obvious issue issue plus all the stress that you mentioned of trying to get out of Dubai and all the rest of it that we've talked about.

And you know Fonseca has been here for several days you know he came to Indian Wells after a confidence boosting win that they played an exhibition tournament.

Some very good players in there in a Casper Roode and a pelker and all these guys and Fonseca won that exhibition in Vegas obviously not very far at all from from Indian Wells.

Now he's come to Indian Wells you know had a hit you know relaxed confident one is first match here against against Collinio.

It was always a tough player so he's he's clearly going to be far better attuned to the conditions than than Koshan off and the other factor is the only time they did meet.

Which was in Paris at the end of last year Fonseca was not in a good physical condition at all it was in as I said it was in Paris in October.

Just a couple of days two or three days after Fonseca it actually won the title in Basel.

He played it actually played the Basel final on the Sunday Fonseca.

Two days later he played Shapa Valov in Paris at a match that I watched in Bursi during that match with Shapa Valov he had a medical time out for a hip problem.

He was certainly looking a bit a bit be dragged in that match ended up winning it. Shapa Valov wasn't in the best condition either.

Ended up winning it then he had to play Koshan off the next day and lost it in three sets and it should also be noted by the way that Koshan off had breathing issues that day certainly towards the start of that match in the middle of that match but he was much fresher Koshan off you know Fonseca was struggling with his with his fitness with his energy levels with with his body so I wouldn't put too much store in that particular result and then we move on to Indian Wells records Koshan off never done that well here.

He's lost five his last seven matches that this tournament only got a 50% win rate in the main draw here is best ever finishes one quarter final never done any better than that.

Fonseca obviously has limited stats at this tournament but he's got a 67% win rate and a service points one and return points would tell 103 so he started well and you would think the conditions would suit him here you know slower higher bouncing kind of clay like almost and he's obviously way more

tuned to the condition so I just think all told if all that together I just think it's a big ask for Koshan off to win this certainly as favorite as he was again I'll just take off a point because we are we are getting sometimes with these players when they go through these things it kind of galvanizes them which is kind of what I'm slightly worried about but I think the obvious bet here is is is to take Fonseca this could turn out to be a very good price in the end he's obviously being bet.

I can see why he's being bet so yeah half a point on the money line for Fonseca for me here.

I genuinely think Fonseca will start around about minus 125 for this match I really do because he made that he made that move Koshan off made that move from Dubai got the car across to a man it doesn't matter who you are.

You know you could be the number 25 tennis player in the world or Joe Blocks you got you got to get across that there's a get to a strange country get through possible control wait for a flight.

I don't know the private jet wait for safety still all but that the emotional here I think I think on second there and I agree with you that he does galvanize I suppose these rush wires are sort of like they're built differently aren't they you know if anyone's going to get free control of room left never know what kind of players are built for this match.

But I do think that Fonseca minus one 12 will be a price that I'm not saying he's going to win and there's logic why you think he's going to win but I think you'll be holding a very decent price to get I think it would be minus 125 because the public perception.

We want to get with Joe Fonseca to win this match so yeah Fonseca and minus one so if I was going to say I'm going to join you making a one point bet but let it.

I don't know if he's rushing you guys if it was if it was Jack trying to go across the desert I think I'd have a five point out I'll say it's not hard individual but I think the Russians are built slightly different to us.

So that would be my wife but yeah Fonseca minus one 12 is our bet that remember that India Wells offer that we have with that rivers as well.

Remember all the content coming away here on the better week the studio is 11 o'clock Eastern time every day Monday through to Friday.

We live all European team Thursday and Friday now throughout the month of March through the tournaments in Indian Wells and in Miami.

We have Mitch and Dustin on Betty weekly tennis lives and at 4 p.m. Eastern time we have the American crew of Mike and Doug breaking all down the best bets on days action state side as well.

We'll be joining me again tomorrow here on Betty weekly game that match and I'll say that hopefully I won't be here to speak to Max here on Betty weekly WTA.

If not he will be joined hopefully by going around in one of the little words of the museum to see if you can call for me if I'm hopefully I'll be flying back home to the UK.

But anyway take care be safe and short I'll switch you again tomorrow mate take care.

Thanks for listening to Betty weekly game bet match on the bet rivers network.

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