ATP Miami Open Preview: Outright winner futures odds, predictions, weather conditions

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Please hit that subscribe button, as I say. Good morning, Joe. Good afternoon, Sean.

How are you doing, mate? Good afternoon, I'm all right. Thank you.

Looking forward to jetting off to Miami tomorrow. Yeah. That's all good. Thank you.

Is the Miami Open? This is the preview show of the Tournament winner market.

It is the second leg of the Sunshine Double. Yannick Sinner is looking to make history.

And when the Sunshine Double has got a chance, we'll go into the odds.

We'll look at the bracket. We'll break it all down on this show.

Before we do that, let's look back on last week. Sinner won the Tournament.

He was in great form, but I suppose the big story of the week was Medvediff.

I mean, incredible performance by him.

How he came back from getting out of Dubai seven hours drive to Amman,

as child flight to Istanbul, Istanbul across to the Indian Wells.

And then he reached the final puts in a very, very big performance.

So I think the big takeout was the Russian.

Yeah, he's been priced accordingly this week, hasn't he?

Half the price this week that he was last week in Indian Wells.

Yeah, playing more aggressively.

And I said in the preview that I did it the final, he stood a much better chance.

In that final against Sinner that he did against Alkaraz in previous finals

that he's had at Indian Wells when it was slow.

Yeah, as he was an odd one for me, I didn't really get the surface speed business.

It didn't make any sense to me because they relayed the courts the previous year,

and completely to a lake hold.

And everyone thought it might be quicker last year, which would make sense,

given that they changed the surface.

They didn't invent anything.

It was even slower.

And then 12 months later, Tommy Har said, oh, we like the way this tournament plays.

We like it being gritty and sort of slow as in high bouncing.

And it wasn't really that.

It seemed to be just the balls that I didn't really get it because it changed changing the balls.

You wouldn't have thought would make a massive difference.

But you wouldn't have thought done lot balls would be so much quicker than the pen ones.

So it's a strange one, unless they've been sort of leaned on by the ATP

to make Indian Wells a little bit quicker and use the same balls to make it kind of the same as Miami.

And they just don't want to say that.

That's perhaps where my conspiracy theory is going with that.

But yeah, but again, you know, with the top two, if one of them doesn't win it,

the other one will.

So it's tough for us.

That's outright better, isn't it?

Even Medvedev, you know, 25 to 1, not a massive price.

And yeah, it's tricky to get these two beaten in the minute.

Isn't Alkarazans in it?

And they're just winning everything between them.

Yeah, the two of them both in action this week in Miami.

And just give you a stat on that.

I did a little bit of research on it.

You know, the last tournament that they both entered,

where a different winner won the tournament,

went neither than everyone told it was.

No, how long have I got to think about it?

It was Madrid in 2024.

It was the last time they went, they went into the tournament.

I think it was run by Andre Rubeliff.

But they both entered.

Oh, is that when we had her, it was Rubeliff beat her.

Is it her casual hook?

I think it was.

No, it's rude.

That was rude.

It was rude.

But they've both been, they've both entered in 20 tournaments together since then.

And one of them was one 20 successive tournaments where it's Sinner and Alkarazans.

I don't want to be hearing that.

It's incredible.

They just showed you the dominance of the two of them.

It does not mean 20.

You know, any more highlighting of it.

But yeah, I would expect them to get beaten more in a tournament like this.

Miami having both gone deep in Indian Wells just a few days before.

I think this gives you more of a chance.

But you know, we're always, we're always kind of hoping a little bit.

Aren't we?

We're not fully confident because like you said, they, they win.

If one of them doesn't win, the other one does generally.

So we're up against it in men's tennis at the minute.

But this, this, this could be a week where there's a few shocks and surprises.

They normally is in Miami, but you know, we'll see.

Yep, there is a few shocks and surprises.

And if you want some shocks and surprises, you can follow Sean over in Miami on our socials app

because we win on Instagram.

We'll have a look at him over there for the next week or so here.

We're covering the tournament there for exclusive picks as well.

So make sure you check that out on our socials app because we win.

Let's move into the bracket.

So moving to the tournament this week over in mind.

And before we go into the bracket, let's have a look at the previous winners in 2025 last year.

Yacca Mensip shocked everybody by winning the tournament.

He beat Novak Djokovic in that final and Novak Djokovic had problems with his contact lens or his eyes or something.

Yeah, he did.

Yeah, I had a problem.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

The annexed in one in 2024.

Mevered everyone in 2023.

Outfresh one in 2022.

Her cash one in 2021.

He beat Sinner in the final that year.

There was no tournament in 2020 because the COVID feder in 2019.

Isn't there in 2018?

Feder in 2017 and Djokovic in 2016 as well.

Since James Blake has taken over as the tournament director.

The tournament is a lot quicker than it used to be.

And I've been there.

I think I've been there for three consecutive years.

And you'll find that the outside courts are much, much quicker than the main court.

Definitely the main grandstand court is a lot quicker, much more open in the sun.

And I suppose the weather is going to be one of the most important factors of this week.

Before we go into the trends, the weather's gone in the early part of the week.

It's pretty awful, isn't it?

And then it gets really nice towards the end of this week.

Yeah, the weather forecast has changed about three or four times since I first looked at it.

It did look bad.

Now it looks all right, actually.

So we're okay.

I mean, I can briefly touch on the weather first.

It's, I think most of the rain has just kind of happened and is kind of peatering out now.

We're talking on Tuesday.

There might be a bit around today Tuesday.

There might be some around Wednesday.

I think by the time I arrive.

Amazingly that the weather will be fine, actually.

Friday to next Tuesday looks looks fine.

Thursday looks all right as well.

Actually about 25 to 29 degrees.

That's about 75 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit.

A little bit of a wind still around though.

Sort of today Wednesday, sort of Thursday morning.

Maybe a little bit of wind the back end of those sort of thunderstorms that they've had.

But as far as the conditions are concerned, it's as you said,

it's much quicker since they moved it to a lake holding in 2023.

Obviously gets laid fresh every year because that stadium is obviously in use for other things.

The rest of the time so they can change it to whatever they want.

It felt a little bit faster last year than than the previous year.

As you said, the players say the state say that the stadium court is slower than the outside courts.

Taylor Fritz reckons that's because it's laid on top of a sports field.

Rather than laid on like complete concrete like the ones out in the car park.

If you want to call it that, that's his theory.

But anyway, it's as you said, it tends to be so doesn't get the sun as much either.

Does it that that main stadium court?

That's that's probably another reason we look at the stats of the last three editions on the lake holder.

Average is 82.6% holds 73% first points one.

That's that's not far off what Indian Wells was actually.

Wells was getting up towards that sort of level, which I never thought I would be saying.

But maybe that is the ATP's idea.

Get them both kind of similar.

And tie break matches 42% of them in the last three editions have featured a tie break.

Set one over 10 and a half games 34% of those matches have gone over 10 and a half.

That'll be odds of plus 194 as an average for that particular bet.

Over and under back is 22 and a half being the line 56% of the matches have gone under in the last three editions.

But there was a long history of Indian Wells unders as well.

And because they changed the conditions, it kind of flipped it on its head.

I don't I don't see James Blake changing the conditions too much here.

I think they're pretty much as he likes it that underdog winners since it was been played on the lake hold 34% on average.

Best round unsurprisingly being round one at 38%.

That's in the last 15 editions.

Underdog profit and loss if you bet $10 on every underdog in the last 10 editions, you'd be well slightly down minus $50 down.

No great excitement there. And moving on to the trends.

We've got some pretty pretty decent trends here.

No player since Roger Federer in 2017 has done the Indian Wells Miami double.

No fact jock which is the only number one seeds of won this title since Federer won it in 2006.

And no number one seed has even made the final since 2016 to not not great trends for our cars and just looking at some of the odds.

We've had as I say quite a lot of big price winners here.

Eight of the last 14 finalists in Miami have been priced between 30 to one and 250 to one.

And two of the last five winners were triple figure odds men's sick last year.

And I think her cash was the other one who was a hundred to one shot.

They are the trends and this is the only important bracket the draw.

This is the top half of the draw.

As you can see, the number one seed is Carlos Alcrass beaten last week by Medvedev his first defeat of 2026 looking to bounce back here.

He's extremely popular in Miami whenever he plays the crowd is there.

But he's got a very interesting second round match against Alfonsock.

I found second gets passed his first match against Marijan, which will be which will be very interesting.

The crowd do like the Brazilian as well.

That would be a great match to go to if you can go to there.

That's in his way before potentially play Sebastian quarter in the round of 32.

If we look at the bracket though, if we took to sort of the protected quarter finals of the Alcrass and Fritz,

obviously type a Jack Draper's in there, Casparoud as well as in there.

And then in the other section of the top half of the draw, Masetti will play Alex Diminor.

But it's got Arthur Fees in there, Tommy Paul as well.

Dangerous in his kind of service in the world number 10, Alexander Bublick.

In the bottom half of the draw, Ben Shelton up against Alexander Verif,

improbably one of the weakest sections of the draw.

Medvedev in there, Devon Oachvigin and Lerna Tien,

a lot of Americans in that section.

And in the bottom half of again in Q4, Fiditz Oachvigin had a seam as the number 7 seed.

He will play Yannick Sinner, but in there as well as the defending champion Mentech,

André Rubilev and the very popular Francis Tiff.

I know about Djokovic this week he yet to pull out through Indry,

but all the other main contenders are in there.

If we're looking at the draw before we come on to the odds,

I mean, you can't really say if there's an easier section or difficult.

I would say personally, I think that Q2 is probably the area where there could be a little value

to try to get someone into the semi-finals you can find someone gets through that section.

But I mean, there's no real advantage being in the bottom half of the top half, really.

Not really, unless Sinner is really struggling physically, which he might well be.

Yeah, just going through the course before I go through the bracket, actually.

Generally speaking in Miami, I would look to avoid those that went deep in Indian Wells.

Medvedev did make the Indian Wells final and then would Miami back in 2023.

So it is possible to make both finals, but it's pretty rare.

It's usually different finalists in Miami to Indian Wells.

And just looking at the first quarter, it does look a tough draw for Alkarazis.

It doesn't, it's Sinner's draw looks a lot easier.

You know, Fontsaker, if it is Fontsaker first up, that would be difficult.

You know, if he wins that sub-corder, those are two very, very difficult matches first up for Alkarazis.

He hasn't had that great a record here recently.

On the new surface, it was better when it was an old surface when it was slower.

On this surface, seven threes win losses, never made the final.

Lost the David Goffan here last year.

Alkarazis, you know, obviously that, I mean, that might be a motivating factor for him.

He might want to avoid doing that again, but looks a tricky draw.

And there's plenty of top players in that Q1 as well.

Aside from Corder and Fontsaker, you know, you've got the likes of Taylor Fritz, Jack Draper.

You know, in dangerous ones like Le Hedgeker, Casper Rude.

So I'm looking for Alkarazis to fall early here.

I know I'm kind of hoping and brain of it, but it's not that for Lorna.

I hope, really, when you've got Fontsaker and Corder as your first two opponents assuming it goes to that seeding.

You know, I'm going to take it a little...

Don't tell us who we...

Let's give the odds first.

We're going to give the odds first.

Yeah, let's give the odds first.

Yeah, I'm going to give the odds.

Sorry about that.

We've got Yannick Senner as the favourite plus 105 to successfully become the first player to win the Sunshine Double,

since Novedruck, which...

Alkarazis plus 1-24.

Obviously you've heard that Sean is dowsing Alkarazis with a chance to do that difficult draw.

And just to sort of sum up how dominant those two are, if you bet both of them combined,

it's minus 1,000, that one of them wins.

You get 1,000 that someone else wins the tournament.

So it's a 90% chance that Senner or Alkarazis is going to win this tournament

and given that they've won 20 successive tournaments when they've both been in the draw,

you can see why Bet Rivers is trying to keep them on their side.

This could be the tournament you can get them beat.

12-1 Mevadev, a very, very short price considering where he's been in the world's game proprietor to do by.

22-1 is very after 30.

22-1 Draper, 31 Shelton, 35 Fritz, 35 Fritz,

45-2-1 Tommy Paul, 45-2-1 Jalfon Secker, who has that mouth-watering second-round match potential

against Alkarazis Alkarazis.

As I said to you, 62-1 R2-V6 is one-bubliq 70,

mintic defending champion 70 and in 110-1 Bar.

Now, you've teed it up.

You want to oppose Carlos Alkarazis and we've just pulled you away just at the moment

when you were just about to tell us who you're going to put the money on.

Who's our man this week?

Well, we've got a couple.

I'll sort of go quarter by quarter.

As I said, the first quarter, it does look really, really tougher

and if you are going to get Alkarazis, but at the last year it was Goffan,

which was a bit of a surprise.

I think we've got to go with our boy, haven't we?

The man, the Del Rey Beach champion.

We've got to go with Sebi Cordy, 110-1 I think.

It's a big price.

Plenty of big price winners and finalists have gone the distance obviously in my amy.

So this sort of fits the trends.

I just don't mind a bit of pizza money on him at 110-1 here.

I do like the guys generally that are very familiar and comfortable in conditions in Florida.

Cordy certainly fits that bill.

He's from Florida.

One Del Rey Beach for us a few weeks ago.

Doesn't have a great record.

I mean, unsurprisingly, he's done nothing since.

That doesn't surprise me at all because he's got a poor record at Indian Wells.

Cordy pulled out of Alkarazis as well because of the fatigue of Del Rey Beach.

He's not the strongest, not the best stamina in the world.

He also has issues with allergies in Indian Wells.

His record there is really poor, just the struggle there a little bit.

But loves the conditions here.

Obviously it's quicker, generally speaking than Indian Wells.

Quicker than Del Rey Beach as well.

He's still managed to win the title in Del Rey Beach even though that is a little bit slower,

I would say than here in Miami.

He's got to go through Carlos Alkarazis.

So, you know, what can I say?

Yeah.

I'm hoping here, Fonseca maybe gets through Nox off Alkaraz.

Asked to go through it Hercules and effort to do it.

Cordy then gets Pive on Saker and then we're into it.

You're not asking much, you're not asking much.

I'm not asking much.

That's what you've got to do in Miami.

I've had a couple of massive price winners.

I think John is in the back in the day, a hundred to one.

You have to do a similar sort of thing.

Obviously it's Alkarazis.

It's a little bit different.

But back in the day, there was Federer and Jockovich and all these guys.

It's not easy to land a hundred to one winner.

I can't resist a little bit of money on Cordy, given that he is in the form.

He does love it here.

It always plays well here.

A Florida guy.

There are plenty of other options in Q1, by the way.

But none of them really appeal as much.

Taylor Fritz is perhaps the obvious one in that bottom section of Q1.

But I'm just not convinced this knee business is over for him.

He isn't playing that well.

I don't think he's physically able to play as well as he can.

Which is off putting on him.

Jack Draper is in there as well.

As he got the stamina to go all the way in these hot sticky conditions, probably not

given the amount of tennis that he's missed.

It all depends, really, on the first couple of matches.

What happens to Alkarazis in the first two rounds.

But as I said, I can't resist a little bit of interest on Cepi.

Called a Q2.

As you said, a few minutes ago, really wide open.

I just can't settle on one player that I think could get through that section.

And then maybe beat an Alkarazis.

If Alkarazis does get through to the semi-finals.

Tommy Paul could potentially be the one.

45 to one.

He's not from here, but he's got a place in Florida.

He's got a place at 15 minutes.

I say from Delray Beach.

So he is comfortable in the Florida conditions.

His draw does look nice.

But again, he's got Paul record against Diminor, who's favored to perhaps come through that

section.

Bublic is another one.

He's possible in these conditions.

Doesn't have a great record.

Diminor, neither Diminor or Bublic have great records here, actually.

So again, maybe we're looking at the guy we had last week.

Arthur Feast made the quarterfinals in Indian Wales.

Again, I'm just a little concerned about him physically.

Again, Longish Week last week.

And he has missed an awful lot of tennis with that back problem.

Is he able to go all the way again?

I just can't settle on one.

I know whether you can.

I can't settle on a player in Q2 that is worthy of a bet.

Well, I really come down to Tommy Paul and Arthur Feast.

Well, I thought 45-1 on Tommy Paul was a little bit too short.

I'd want a little bit more than that.

I want to fade Masetti.

I think Masetti's had his year last year.

I think Alex Diminor to me is always a fade at the short prices.

And I thought Feast and Tommy Paul were the two.

But Feast would be my man, because he's been my man.

It goes to a man for a long time.

But I'm quite worried about how he performs against the top players.

I mean, he got absolutely blitzed by our Cresgroves.

He blitzed by us very.

And I'm worried about that when he gets up to the top level,

could he beat, could he challenge those players?

And that's a worry for me.

But I think you will bet someone there.

And you're going to get semi-finals at a fairly decent price.

And hope that our Cresgroves can get beat.

So that would be the way I'm looking.

But my pen come down on Tommy Paul.

I pin come down on Tommy Paul and Arthur Feast.

Q3.

Obviously, Zverev is probably the main man you expect to go through.

But I quite like Ben Sherwin.

I don't know what you thought of that.

I thought is that the same.

I thought is that the same.

Ben Sherwin is my man.

Again, the Florida connection lives in Florida.

You know, played college tennis for the Florida Gators.

Unlucky last week, he was sick in Indian Wells.

He played.

I'm not sure he should have played.

He didn't look well at all against, against Leonard TN.

And he hasn't said anything about that since I assume it was a sick bug

or something that he had.

No, but a little bit unlucky.

You would expect him to be refreshed after, you know,

pretty early exit in Indian Wells and straight back to Florida to get back to,

you know, the conditions there.

And it's always, it's always very of a quarter.

It seems to me that I always feel like I want to attack it.

I took Shelton in this tournament last year.

He lost to Coleman Wong in his first match, 76 in the third.

I remember it distinctly.

But is that, you know, that's not going to happen again.

His first match here would be against what's left of Matteo Ronaldo.

He was at an awful lot of injury problems.

You know, he hasn't been able to play anywhere near his best tennis for a long, long time

with the injuries on Aldi or Chef Chenky.

He wouldn't expect him to lose that.

He's already a master's 1,000 winner on hard cuts, of course.

We're in Canada and, you know, the likely quick conditions here.

They, they should really be to his liking.

The obvious stumble blocking that in that top section of Q3 is,

it's obviously Medvedev.

But he did beat Medvedev in their only career meeting,

which was actually in Lavercup.

So slow conditions on indoor hard.

Shelton did win that.

It's probably not that relevant,

but it will be to Ben Shelton.

He'll fans here.

I feel like he does have the game in quick conditions

to take advantage of Medvedev.

And you know, Medvedev's got to be a bit legging hours in India.

Dubai, Indian Wells.

The very short time.

It's really well to get to Indian Wells final.

Very short switch from a 12 hour time zone change.

I know he's the marathon man.

And he played at most of his matches,

if not all, were in straight sets.

But I think it's a massive ask for Medvedev to do it again.

And he's too short now for me.

He don't want 12 to 1 as I say.

He was 25 to 1 last week.

I think it's a big ask for Medvedev.

So I do like Shelton in that.

That top section.

And it's very, it is, you know, he's ever the enigma, isn't he?

And again, too short for me at 20 to 1.

I talked about him on the Instagram.

He went, you know, head of the match against Sinner.

And he actually started that match against Sinner.

Great. The semi finals.

The first two service games.

He looked like he really meant business.

Didn't, you know, barely lost a point on serve.

And then couldn't find his first serve.

Got flummoxed because Sinner changed his return position.

That did zero.

It was very heavy.

And he never really recovered.

So I always think he's opposed.

Well, I think he's not got a fabulous recent record here either.

It's very heavy.

So happy to take Ben Shelton and Q4.

It's obviously where we find Yannick Sinner.

And it does look a decent draw for Yannick Sinner.

However, is he, is he fit enough to make back-to-back finals in Indian Wells Miami?

He didn't look fresh to me in the, in the Indian Wells final.

He didn't look great in the semi-finally.

They got a back, back issue.

I don't, I don't trust him playing basically three and a half, four weeks back-to-back,

super-hot conditions.

We've seen it before from Sinner when he's tried to get back-to-back.

He's often entered at retiring or withdrawing.

And the question then is, who's the one likely to take advantage if Sinner does sort of fail to go the distance in that section?

I think the obvious ones are a men's sick Felix and TFO.

I think they're probably the most likely three if Sinner's not fit.

You would have to say, obviously, men's sick is a defending champion.

But you would have to say he had a quite a lot of luck on his side last year.

He got, he got a withdraw from Mahatch.

I had Mahatch, so I remember that very well.

He got an exhausted Arthur Fees who had played an epic match the day before running on fumes.

Then he got the jok of it, you had that eye problem.

And he won every single tie break he played, which was quite a few.

He played seven tie breaks, men's sick in Miami last year, won every single one.

So a substantial slice of luck, Goni's way.

It'll still be very dangerous.

I just wonder whether the look's going to fall like that on his side again.

TFO is interesting.

Looks like he's sort of back to a bit of a bit of his old self.

Felix has not got a particular good record at all in Miami.

I'm just as if I can find it.

He's not one back-to-back matches here actually since 2019.

Felix, I much prefer him on indoor hard rather than somewhere that can be windy,

like Indian Wells and Miami.

I don't fancy him that much in those sort of conditions.

So it's all on sinner.

I mean, what sort of condition is he going to be in?

If you don't believe he's going to be fit, then there are other options there.

As I say, men's sick TFO, you know, maybe Felix would be my three possibly rub left.

But I'm only going to have a couple of bets.

Just Shelton in in this half and and sebi quarter and either half.

So there's two Americans at decent prices against the top two of the market.

We're going to go for Ben Shelton each way at 30 to one.

Is it half unit each way?

I'm just going to take a quarter of a point each way on quarter.

I mean, that would make sense.

I think slightly more on Shelton, maybe a third of a point each way on Shelton.

Obviously, a shorter price.

A better prospect, you would say.

Quarter is a hopeful pick.

You would suggest it some ways.

But I think 110 is decent.

So slightly more on Shelton.

It's slightly more on Shelton of 30 to one and 110 to one for Sebastian quarter.

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Okay, let's move on to some matches.

And we have four matches for the opening round.

Tournament starts tomorrow.

We don't know the order played just yet.

But we do know the matches.

The first match we are going to discuss is Denyschappervile off against Bottich van der Sandschup.

The winner of this match will face Taylor Fritz.

I believe it's Taylor Fritz.

I think it's Taylor Fritz waiting for the winner cops.

Yes, it is.

It's Taylor Fritz.

Yes, it is Taylor Fritz.

Let's have a look at the first one.

Body van der Sandschup is the underdog.

It's plus 155.

Chappervile off is $2 spread.

Here is 2.5.

And the total here is 23.5.

There is a whole host of markets available on the bet rivers app.

And if you do have a bet on this match, you can use that offer as well.

And you can also watch it live stream on the bet rivers website or the app.

The two have met twice before, both in 2024.

They met the Indian Wells and Chappervile off when it's 6164 in round 1.

And then they met in the US open in the same year.

And body van der Sandschup gained revenge with a straight set to win 647564.

Both of them have started the year in pretty poor form.

Chappervile lost these three and five on hard.

And body van der Sandschup was three and four.

But it comes into this match losing his last three matches.

How do you see this one?

Sure.

Yeah, this just looks short on Chappervile for me.

Minus two dollars.

Sure about that at all.

Not on outdoor hard in sort of gusty conditions, you know,

with Chappervile of its feast or famine, isn't it?

He looks a million dollars on a good day, but his bad day is a plentiful.

And he has a poor record recently against the top 65 ranked players in the world.

But van der Sandschup's at the bottom of that 65, but he's better than that.

Chappervile's only won eight of his 21 matches against the top 65 in the last year.

And of those 21 matches of those eight wins.

Is anyone in straight sets three times in 21 matches against against top 65 players,

immediately at the handicap is of interest.

Van der Sandschup obviously beat him.

As you said, straight sets as a plus 255 underdog at the US open in their most recent meeting in 2024.

The head to head is very, very close indeed to meetings both on hard, both kind of one sided.

So the totals are almost identical, 111 to 99 in favor of Shapo hardly anything in it at all.

The story of those two matches with Chappervile of played poorly in New York and Van der Sandschup played poorly in Indian Wells.

As I said, most of Chappervile's best work tends to come indoors where the conditions favor him.

Six of his nine career finals have actually come on indoor hard.

If you look at what he's done on outdoor hard at main level, it's not as good as Van der Sandschup over the last 12 months.

Chappervile of, it's not much in it, but it's Van der Sandschup with a slight lead.

Chappervile of 52% win rate and the service points won and return points won total 100.5.

Van der Sandschup 53% win rate and a total of 101.2.

So on the bare hard court stats and nod to Van der Sandschup with a slight one.

Then we move on to last 10 matches versus the current top 50 on outdoor hard at main level.

Chappervile of just a 20% win rate and a total of 93. Van der Sandschup 30% win rate and a total of 95.

Yet Chappervile of his is minus two dollars.

It doesn't make any sense to me again with Chappervile.

If you always feel like he's got to play a really clean match to justify those sort of odds, maybe he will.

Highly likely that he might not looking at the numbers that I've just come up with there.

I'm going to take a little chance on Van der Sandschup on the money line here with these two.

I mean, you really don't know what you're going to get with these guys, but minus two dollars.

Chappervile of not for me, he has too many days where the double faults really stack up.

The unforced air is really stack up and he gets his air off with it.

And it's if it's not going his way, you know, he's not want to kind of dig in and try and grind it out.

That's not Chappervile of at all.

So a little bit of interest to 0.75 of a point on Van der Sandschup on the money line plus 155.

I believe he is a better rivers.

The order of play isn't known just yet, but check that out.

It'll be tomorrow at some stage.

You've got plenty of time to get across to the Betras app.

Download the app and place your bet on botic van der Sandschup at plus 155.

It's a first bet. It's a nice price bet for us here.

Let's move on to our second match.

It's Giovanni and Petri Perigard is minus 230 against Hugo Carriabelli plus plus 180.

Spread is two and half total who is 24 and half set.

Betting set spread available there.

The two of them have met once before and Petri Perigard won that back in the challenger in Lima in 2022.

7575 on a hard court.

And Petri Perigard is not in great form.

He's lost his last two matches.

Sorry.

It was Clay, wasn't it?

Clay, sorry.

Petri Perigard isn't in great form.

He's lost his last two matches.

He's got been due by Gintzer.

He's always had to see him a match.

I watched actually before the troubles went off.

And he was served as trosiously.

I remember that.

Terrible. Lots of double faults.

He looked like he got injured in it.

And then he went and played a mic shack in Indio-Melsingor beat as well.

It's all about the serve for Petri Perigard.

And I've seen Hugo Carriabelli play here on the centre court.

He played...

No, not a bit of a joker, which a couple of years ago.

Maybe last year or even before.

And he pushed him really well.

Second set, I was in the first.

Yeah, it was close game.

I think it lost the first set, six love.

And in the second set, you think you made it competitive.

Because I'm done with the handicap.

I think it was something like that.

Anyway, that's our match.

There has been a bit of money for Hugo Carriabelli and the build up to this match.

And when you put these kind of matches up,

I always know you're probably going to go with the dog in some capacity.

You are correct.

In some capacity.

I mean, conditions will obviously favour in Petri Perigard.

If he serves well, which, as you said, is not always a given.

I think it was 4-1 up in that second set against Felix.

Lots of five games in a row, I think.

It was up in the first set.

It was 3-1 up in the first set.

It had a break early doors.

And then he got injured.

The physio one.

It was certainly 4-1 up in one of them.

It was awful.

It was a little bit of hitting misses in the...

Yeah, the bear conditions you would expect will favour in.

But it's shocking return game.

Combined with Hugo Carriabelli's ability to keep things tight against big servers.

It does make the set one over as viable here.

Normally, that would be minus money.

Set one over ten and a half with Petri Perigard.

Because it's kind of almost a given.

But here, they've looked at Hugo Carriabelli and thought, yeah, a clay quarter.

That's not going to be happening.

But that's not the case.

Hugo Carriabelli's played four completed matches against the big servers

in my database on each occasion.

Set one has gone over ten and a half games.

And one of them was a match I watched last week against Martin Dam.

Big server in lefty in Indian Wells.

A pelker.

Riley a pelker on grass at Queen's Club.

That went over ten and a half.

That went to a tie break.

Taylor Fritz at the US Open.

No less.

That opening set went long as well.

And the one we mentioned about.

And Petri Perigard, you know, on clay seven five.

On clay many, many years ago, I want to probably not that relevant.

But you know, so Hugo Carriabelli has shown that he's more than capable of holding his own deal

and staying competitive, particularly early on against big servers.

And just the numbers of Petri Perigard, they don't change.

They're still shocking in terms of return.

That's 12 months and outdoor hard at main level.

27% return points, one and just 9% breaks of serve.

It's played one match in Miami predictably.

It was seven seven seven six, which he lost to Jordan Thompson.

And the only one 18% of return points that day.

I know Thompson's a bigger server than Hugo Carriabelli.

But it's it's all even against the poor servers.

Petri Perigard doesn't break.

You know, anywhere near enough.

Hugo Carriabelli actually beat Alex Mikkelson here last year.

Which is an excellent win.

And as you said,

well, as I said, he's played a tie break in his last four matches against Miami.

One of the ones was the one you mentioned against Novak Djokovic.

You'll probably be aware that, you know, South Americans,

they do tend to get a ton of support here.

They certainly have over the years that a lot of South Americans,

a lot of Argentinians do go to this tournament.

They'll be cheering for him.

I'll probably hopefully I'll be at this match.

And I can have a little bit of a cheer as well.

But I think the bet has to be set one.

Given everything you go, Carriabelli's dawn against the big servers,

given the way in Petri Perigard serves,

but doesn't do anything on return.

So I'm going to take half a point over 10 and a half games in set one.

That's plus money, plus one, one, three.

That is what bet rivers.

I think that's a decent spot.

You never really know with him, Petri.

But I think it's a decent bit.

It'll be a value for a small wager.

Yeah, you've got to remember as well.

That's obviously Sean's database.

It's to neither the Overs is the way to go.

Carriabelli over 10 and a half set one in the match.

Goodon and Petri Perigard and Carriabelli.

So I'm interested in match for us as well,

because the winner of that match will play our 110 to one pick,

Sebastian Corder in round number two.

Now the next match is the match from Jalfon Secker and Fabien Marigian.

And we're all saying that Jalfon Secker's just got to win this match

and he'll play with sort of taking it for granted.

That he's going to win this match and place Carriabelli's in round two.

He's got a very, very decent opponent in Marigian.

Mario's beaten Algrasm before a player that has beaten Fonsecker before

fairly come to be in Rome 6376 last year.

And you know, there's only seven spots between these two in the world rankings,

but the odds are very, very, very disrespectful, I think, for Marigian who's a proven player.

Minus 335 for Fonsecker.

Plus 255 for Marigian, spread three and a half total.

He was 22 and offset paying sets, breads,

and lots, lots, lots more to come on the Betruz app throughout the day today on this match.

But I think I'll make Fonsecker the favourite, but minus 335, not for me.

Yeah, the money's come for Fonsecker.

He was bigger than that.

People are just betting him a betting him here against Marigian.

Not convinced at all.

I mean, as you said, everyone's expecting Fonsecker Algrasm, probably hoping for that match.

I'm not totally convinced it'll happen.

You know, probably will, but I wouldn't be completely sure by any means.

You know, Marigian is another one of these hitting misguys.

He's like, you know, some kind of a moody player.

Sometimes he's on it and he looks great.

And you think, you know, this guy could go deep at this tournament.

And other times he's, you know, dropped maybe a drop to set and maybe setting a breakdown.

He's just faded away.

Does that all too often?

Marigian, but he's beating Fonsecker.

As you said, he's beating Algrasm.

He'll fancy this.

He'll be thinking, well, this is a tough draw, but beating both of these guys.

A bit at the same tournament, actually, not the same year, but a bit in both in Rome.

And he won that match.

Very, I was there that day, Fonsecker Marigian.

I didn't watch that match.

It was on the super tennis arena.

I'm pretty sure, which is the new arena they've got down there, which is just by the football stadium.

I didn't have tickets for that one.

But he won it 113 to 87 in terms of service points.

One of return points, one of the titles did Marigian.

It's not a fluke, a very, very overwhelming one-sided match.

And Marigian made the quarterfinals here in Miami in 2024.

And he's got a service points one and return points one title of 102 in all his matches at this tournament.

And his record in Masters 1000 is very good.

It's better than his record in lower level tournament, actually.

He's got 24 wins and 18 losses in Masters 1000s for a 57% win rate, which is very, very good.

It's a very, very good indeed for a player ranked around about 50 in the world.

And his record, if you compare that, is record in two 50s and 500s alone is 45% win rate.

So he's got a much better record in a higher level of tennis than the smaller events, which is quite unusual.

There's not a great delineate in the last 12 months and outdoor hard at main level either.

Marisan 50% win rate and the total of 100.

So he's very curious slightly, but a 57% win rate in the total of 101.9.

But that doesn't equate to the odds that I'm seeing here.

Fonseca's only winning 34.5% of return points, which isn't great.

And on Clay against Marigian, he only won 27% of return points.

He really was rushed by the Hungarian that day on a slow-ish clay surface.

And the way I'm going to attack this is probably going to be Marigian opening second.

Marigian is often a very fast starter. He's either on it or he's not.

He's won 27th of his 50 opening sets at main level in the last year.

That's 54%.

And he's lost a further eight of those matches, either 75 or 76.

So in 70% of his main level matches in the last year, he's either won the set or lost it very narrowly.

It feels to me like Fonseca might have to do this the hard way.

But the two one to him is a reasonable option.

If you like the set betting, that's a plus two 50 chance.

I believe you bet rivers.

He will have the crowd support. Most of the crowd support you would think Fonseca.

That might just drag him over the line.

But these money line odds, not for me at all.

I'm going to take half a point on Marigian to win the opening set plus 1.95.

A bet rivers. I think that's, I think the price is just too short on Fonseca for me here.

Very, very short prices on Fonseca.

I think when the draw comes out, everyone just thought,

oh, that's going to be a second round match against Agress.

It might be, but...

It might be, but...

Damn odds are...

No, not for me.

You see, he's a player that Marigian.

I would never bet him as a favor, but as a big dog, I like him.

Yeah, correct. I wouldn't match it here.

Yeah, I wouldn't...

I will actually look at his odds as underdog.

It just feels to me like he's a player that prefers that scenario.

I think you like this situation of not being expected to win

and just knowing that he can beat Fonseca and beat him well.

I think it's a good situation for Marigian.

We'll see.

All the crowd against him as well.

Let's crowd against him.

Yeah, I mean, I highly doubt I'll be able to watch this,

but I imagine this will be on...

I haven't got tickets for the main arena.

You know me.

I like to prefer the outdoor, you know, the court, 15.

Watching and pet you against Hugo Carabelli,

but maybe it'll be on Grandstander,

which is one that you can go into.

So we'll see.

Our next game might be on court number 15.

It might be actually on court number 16,

because it could be right out there.

Well, the end of the card mark.

Yeah.

Jijing Zhang against Adrian Manorino.

Zhang is minus 143 for this.

He's lost his last three matches coming into this tournament.

I'm just saying Manorino, the veteran plus 107.

You never know what Manorino's going to turn.

It's plus 107.

It's spread is one and a half.

Total's high at 23 and a half.

Low to different markets as well available.

Couple of air for you on the graphic.

Manorino 7.

A dreadful time of it at the moment.

On the hard court this season.

Only one win from his seven matches.

And that was against Bricknell.

Bricknell.

I think they're even over in the, in the Phoenix Channel.

Blake Bayes-Bicknell from Jamaica.

Well, the 370 ranked player.

So that shows you the kind of form that Manorino is.

This is going to be a tough one for both players

who are struggling for form.

It's a most, you know, it's out of all the matches

we've discussed.

It's the most evenly matched in the betting.

But I think both of them better come with a little bit of a,

you're going to, you're going to need for a little of a roller coaster ride

whoever you take here.

Sure.

Yeah, you are.

I mean, Manorino's form has been,

all right, he's done well on indoor hard.

You know, he'll find Le Montpellier, I think,

off the top of my head and played pretty well in Dallas outdoor hard.

I'm not worried about that because a lot of the outdoor hard

that he's played on so far, not the Australian Openput since then

is it's all been very, very slow conditions where he wouldn't fancy

manager.

In fact, we took him on, didn't we, with Shimmer Bakuro in,

I think it was Acapulco.

So Manorino is a generally a player that goes well in conditions

that suit and not in conditions that don't suit.

I think conditions suit him here.

I'm really not sure about these odds on Zhang.

I think this is the wrong favourite to be honest with you.

You know, Zhang's been injured for a long time and he's only played

eight main level matches in a year.

He did win the Brisbane Challenger last month,

but it was a poor quality tournament.

There wasn't barely anybody ranked inside the top two, three hundred there.

And he's lost three of his four matches since, as you said,

including last week at the CapCan of Challenger.

He lost to Colman Wong there, I think.

Not overly experienced in Miami's, and he played three matches

at this tournament at all levels, including Colis and he's lost two of them.

And he's record against top, he's record against lefties.

He isn't great against good lefties.

He's record against top one hundred ranked left handers, Zhang.

Five wins, ten losses on all surfaces.

And on hard courts alone, one win and six losses.

So not good at all record against the better left handers in the game.

He beat Manorino easily on the clay in Rome, but that shouldn't have surprised anybody.

He was 1.3 there in decimal Zhang to win that match.

And Manorino's record, by the way.

How many matches do you think Manorino's ever won in the main draw at Rome?

None.

Yeah, none.

He's lost all eight matches he's ever played in the main draw in Rome.

He barely tolerates the clay swing Manorino.

He kind of does it because he has to, but not a clay man by any stretch of the imagination.

But conditions will suit him here a lot more, you know, fast, kind of slick,

lowish bouncing, hard court.

That's got Manorino written all over it.

And he's won three of his five matches here that have been played on this new surface prior to that.

It was a slower hard court.

And he's beaten Jerry Shang, Ben Shelton.

He'll be her cash.

Those are his wins here.

He's lost a couple of tight ones.

Couple of tie breaks to to you banks.

And a tight one as well.

The final set to Tianan粉 both both sort of big serve as Zhangs.

Not I wouldn't say he was a big serve.

It's it's all right pace.

I wouldn't class him as a big server.

And Manorino's loss is that they don't bother me too much in in Acapulco Indian Wells and Phoenix.

That wouldn't worry me because they're all too slow and bouncy for Manorino.

Although he was a little bit unlucky.

I thought against Beritini in what were quicker Indian Wells conditions.

Seven five in the third.

It was pretty close and a little bit unlucky there.

And statistically there's no reason to make Zhang favorite since the start of 2024.

Main level and outdoor hard.

Zhang, 33% win rate.

And the service points won and return points won until the 96.

Manorino better win rate at 37%.

Percent better total 97 only by one point but still better.

I slate that to last 50 matches each on this surface at main level against the current top 50.

Zhang, 24% win rate.

And a total of 94.

Manorino, 30% win rate and a total of 95.

I slate it further to the current top 20.

Zhang, 13% win rate and a total of 91.

Manorino, 24% win rate and a total of 92.

So there's nothing in the stats that would suggest on this surface Zhang should be favorite.

And given that Manorino would enjoy these conditions.

I'm happy to take a point on my old friend.

Adrian Manorino, I believe is plus 107.

We better reverse.

Plus 107 for the veteran.

Manorino, we're still tipping him up.

We said to him a quite a few times this season actually.

You know, I'm not quite sure he's done for us, but he's it's something.

We got him.

Well, great case there to make.

We had him in Baratini, didn't we?

They ended up losing 75 in the third.

Probably should have gone for the handicap.

They're the handicap covered.

We went against him the other week against him.

Shima Bakura only lost in straight sets.

That was kind of, you know, that that was again.

This is what Manorino is.

Slow, gritty, high bouncing.

He's not generally going to do well, but a slicker, quicker hardcore.

You know, he certainly has a much better chance there.

Just from my memory, I would say that Botti found this answer.

And Manorino featuring more of our first round shows than anybody else in terms of match.

Matches to discuss.

Probably because.

The archie obviously doesn't doesn't rate them as much as you do.

I suppose that's probably what it is.

Bottich, he just never know.

If he's on a good day, his high level is very, very, very high.

If he's on a poor day, obviously it's not.

But that's why I get tempted in a lot with Bottich.

Manorino is a different story because if he's, if he has got what I consider to be the right conditions,

then he's extremely dangerous and extremely difficult player to play against with that style.

So yeah, it's, it's the two players that on their day can be super difficult to beat.

So there is a few official plays for us on the first round in Miami.

Remember, the action starts tomorrow.

The order of play will be announced and it'll be available on the bet rivers app.

Any of those matches you have a wager on, you'll be able to live stream them as well.

And remember, you can follow Sean who touches down in Miami tomorrow and our socials at because we win.

Sean, before I let you go, give us a quick recap of our official plays and the points.

Sorry, little fly there coming onto my microphone.

Yes, first one then one point on Adrian Manorino on the money line against Zhang plus one oh seven.

Next one half a point on marriage into in the opening set against Fonseca plus one ninety five.

That is a bet rivers.

Another small bet half a point over ten and a half games in set one in the match between Ugo counterbelly.

And then Petri Perico that's plus one thirteen chance of bet rivers.

And the first match bet that I talked about the aforementioned vandals and school three quarters of a point on him on the money line plus one fifty five against Shapa Valov.

A couple of outright court for a point each way on sebi quarter a hundred and ten to one and a third of a point each way on Ben Shelton thirty to one with that rivers.

And remember, if you're liking those short bets and you want to get a sunshine double profit booth, you can in the second half of the sunshine double.

The Miami open is underway and you can enhance your best bet with a generous profit boost from bet rivers and to the code BW three one six in your bet rivers app and you'll receive a hundred percent profit boost to use on any Miami open bet up to twenty five dollars.

That code again is BW three one six the offer ends on March the twenty ninth must be twenty one or over.

Editor players only gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler.

A really, really good profit boost available for everybody there to make sure you use on one of those picks there and cheer them home for us.

Remember, there's loads of content coming your way here on the channel.

So make sure you subscribe.

The Champions League returns this evening.

I'll be at the Emirates Stadium for arson against my leave a cousin.

You better follow me on the app because we're in Instagram as well and we'll have me on Ben and weekly live today.

Tomorrow, it'll be Will White's turn the the Europa League on Thursday and James Eastern will join us and they will start at eleven o'clock Eastern time.

As well as that Ben and weekly live PM with Doug and Mike will cover all the American sports as well at four PM Eastern time every day through Monday through to Friday.

Tomorrow, I'll be joined by Tim Dennis on betting weekly WTA and there was a WTA show out now live preview in the women's draw here in Miami.

And tomorrow live on Miami, sure we're joining me on our next Ben and weekly game bet match.

That's it for today.

Sean have a very, very safe journey. Enjoy yourself.

One tip.

Do yourself a favor spend the afternoon. Go down to little Havana.

Have a little afternoon.

Little Havana. You'll love it.

Really good.

Really great.

The music.

The vibe.

That would be interesting.

It would be a little Havana.

You'll love it.

The old guy's paint dominoes.

It's really, really good.

If you get a chance, go down there. You'll have a good cycle.

That's it for today.

Follow Sean on Instagram.

Hopefully we're getting down a little Havana.

And we'll take it off from there.

How many cash from tickets? Good luck for everybody.

And we'll speak to you all again tomorrow on Ben and weekly game bet match and Ben and weekly WTA.

Take care.

Thanks for listening to Ben and weekly game bet match on the Bet Rivers Network.

Thanks for watching.