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It's the 705th episode of the Tennis Gambling Podcast and it's time to preview the men's semifinal matches at the US Open. Scott Reichel starts by quickly recapping what happened in the quarterfinals. Then, Scott previews the upcoming semifinal matches while sharing his betting advice. Lastly, the show wraps up with Scott's two favorite plays in the Lock & Dog segment.
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Tennis Gambling Podcast — ATP US Open Semifinal Picks – 9/10/26 (Ep. 705). Machine-transcribed; use the interactive transcript above to jump the player to any line.
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The tennis gambling podcast and sports game podcast. Now we're going to be brought to you by the free real football contest. Three cab for grabs. And today, sports game, box, calm slash free roll. And welcome everyone to the tennis game podcast. Here on the sports game podcast, no, we're currently Thursday morning, early Thursday morning, around 120 AM Eastern time on our sky show. It had breakdown. The men's semi-final matches. We already did the women's episode a couple hours ago. We're going to do the men's episode now. These various matches ended early against his end show. So the point is we were able to get the lines out early into record. So we're not going to really recap the lock and dogs because the women's matches haven't happened yet for the semis. Of course, these matches on the men's side, taking place on Friday. The women's matches are taking place on Thursday to keep that in mind. But either way we're going to break down the matches early because we have lines already. So why not? Before we get into the actual match, break down is a reminder that you can check out the podcast on YouTube Spotify or Apple. Like, subscribe on YouTube.
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Wednesday was awful. I'll get into that in a second. But Tuesday might have been one of the greatest US Open days of all time. Because if you factor in the two women's matches, all four matches went the distance. So we had two men's five setters and two women's three setters all on the same day. Now that lighting to the Alcarez and Shelton match ending at about four in the morning. And people were complaining about it. But that only happened because every other match was an absolute war. And we actually had three of the four matches and in a final set tie break, which is crazy to think about. For the lock, though, we had Tiofo on the money line to minus 142. He had a thrilling comeback against Mikkelsen. Mikkelsen was up two sets and a break served for the match and he ended up choking. And Tiofo came back and he ended up winning. I'll go a bit more deep dive on that in a second. But I'm going to come back win for Big Foe. For the dog look, we knew Koshanup was going to win. We mentioned specifically in the podcast that there was decent chance blocks was going to retire mid match,
which is why I did not want the minus one, napsets. And it's why I didn't want really any type of spread on the match. I thought blocks would quit in the middle of it. So we ended up being completely right about Koshanup. The problem was he was like minus 140 or so. And we wanted plus money for the dog. So we ended up taking Alcaraz money on as a parlay piece because we figured Shelton wouldn't beat him. And you know what Shelton did? Took about 4 1,5 hours and he wanted a final set tie break, but that sabotage the parlay as Alcaraz is a de-juicer ended up sabotaging the two pick. But the Koshanup read was so accurate that it really felt forced. And Zvariv, of course, was too big of a favorite that taking him wouldn't have actually made it plus money either. So Alcaraz fell short. The greatest fit set player of all time lost to Ben Shelton. It happens. But either way, I did lose the dog, but did end up winning the lock. Moving on to the recap, though, of the quarterfinals. You had Tiafo who somehow came back as he was getting absolutely killed.
The man could not land a first serve for the entire first two sets, basically combined. And to read off the actual serving numbers for Tiafo in those sets. I mean, usually his first serve is low, but it's usually around like mid-50s, give or take, for the set breakdown. Tiafo landed 42% first serve. He landed 35% first serve in the second set. And third set, he was at 53, fourth set, 63, fifth set back down to 58. The first two sets, though, the man could not land a first serve. And Mikkelsen was destroying his second serve. Then Tiafo found a way to get back into it. Mikkelsen, we saw him stumble a bit against Etcheverri as he served it out for that match. And we saw Mikkelsen double fault a couple of times in that game against Etcheverri, eventually fought off a break-pointer too and held on to win. But I noticed that nerves got to him in that match. And I thought it might happen again. And it did. He double-faulted immediately on the first two points
when serving for the match got broken. They didn't get broken again to lose the set. He went from up five four to losing. I think he was up five three actually. And he ended up losing the final four games in the third set. Then on top of that, Mikkelsen was up three nothing. One break into the fifth set. And he blew that too. So Mikkelsen had golden chances to put the match away. Tiafo hung around. And I specifically mentioned in the Tiafo money-line breakdown. Mikkelsen was 0 and 8 in fifth sets in his career. I know that some of those were next gen finals matches, which is first to four sets. A first to four to win each set. So not exactly the same. But the point is he is an abysmal fifth set player who seems to always shrink mentally in these big spots. And Mikkelsen shrunk again. Tiafo got the job done, won the final set tie break. And then Mikkelsen immediately broke down crying. Tiafo went to hug him after basically a four and a half hour marathon. The match itself took four hours and 38 minutes.
Mikkelsen lost and immediately started crying on Tiafo's shoulder while still standing on the court. So Mikkelsen immediately unraveled mentally throughout the entire, I'd say, back end of the third set onward, then again in the fifth set. But he was emotionally spent. He broke down crying and he lost again in the fifth set. Fun fact, every single grand swam loss that he's had this year, all four of them were in fifth sets. So he's now O-9 in fifth sets. He did play well in terms of overall stamina. It wasn't like he got tired. It just felt like he definitely looked tight out there. And Tiafo was able to make enough passing shots to win, including the passing shot for the win on that point. But we backed Tiafo knowing it was not going to be an easy win either way, thought it would go four or five. And knowing Mikkelsen is an abysmal fifth set player, we leaned into that and Tiafo got it done. Was it the way we thought he was going to win? No, we did not think he was going to go down two sets and a break
with Mikkelsen serving for the match. But same result, nice one there for Tiafo. Four of the other match ended up seeing on, once again, Tuesday, you ended up seeing Shelton beat Alcaraz in a four hour 28 minute match. Alcaraz won the first set tie break. Shelton had a lead, lost the final four points in the first set tie break. Alcaraz actually served four of the set and he got broken. So kind of back and forth there. But Alcaraz once he won the tie break, he kind of thought Shelton blew his opportunity and he would unravel. Not so much. Alcaraz definitely dealing with some wrist issues still. Shelton buried him six-one into the second set, won the third set six-three, then Shelton punted the fourth set six-one. And you figure bold strategy, considering the fact that Alcaraz is the best fifth set player ever, that he was going to hand over the fourth set and try to beat him in five. Then Shelton had a couple of break points midway through the fifth set. Alcaraz had a break point in the two-two return game didn't convert. Shelton had three break points in the four-three return game for him.
So he had a couple of chances to serve it out to win six-three. Instead Alcaraz fought it off a couple of nice points there and then Alcaraz had a mini break. He was up five-three in the tie break. And you figure, you know what? He's probably going to win. He's Alcaraz. He seems to always win these big matches. And you know what, Shelton did not go away and Shelton wrapped it up with an incredible 146 mile per hour ace on match point in the biggest match of his life. So props to Shelton. I did not think he would beat Alcaraz. I thought Alcaraz was playing too well. And I thought that eventually the unforeseen error count would get up there for Shelton. But good for him. First time ever beating Alcaraz. First time ever winning a set off him on hardcore. He was on four on sets on hardcore against him. But do you sabotage your parlay? But now we have a guaranteed American in the final Shelton or Tiafo is our guaranteed spot in the US Open Final, taking on the winner of either Zverev or Gashanov. But we have a guaranteed American in the final,
which is very fun. Maybe, maybe the 23 year men's grand slam drought will end. We'll see what happens. But either way, two absolute epics that totaled to about nine hours of tennis. And that was definitely one of the best days of tennis of all time. A moving all note to the matches for Wednesday, the exact opposite. The women's matches were good. Both the women's matches ended up going to three. Promo was the men's matches when basically two and a half sets and three. As Gashanov beat blocks in a retirement, which we did predict, thought the back issue would come back to bite him again. Apparently it was a rib issue that also kind of led to the back. But either way, blocks was down, two sets and a break. And said, why am I here? I can barely move any end of the quitting. So not a shock there. But for the other match, Dazantial was off of a five hour marathon against Gia. We thought he would get destroyed. And he did. We picked three nothing at plus money back out there. Only one set was competitive. Second set had a seven five.
The other two were six two and six one. But either way, Dazantial did actually have a set point and a break point. He had a break point in the three two return game. And he had a set point into the five four return game. Did not convert. Bumerang broken and then Zverov held that out to win. The second set. But Dazantial, well, good for him made to the quarterfinals. He played a five hour plus match the round prior. We thought he was going to be cooked. But either way, point is he ended up being cooked as Zverovied him comfortably in straight sets. So for the actual quarterfinals, we had one great day of tennis, all time great day of tennis, and one awful day of tennis. But either way, a point is definitely a fun collection of matches we have coming up. And hopefully the semifinal matchups end up delivering. Now for the recap of the outrights for the men's side, for the actual quarter picks, etc. Overall, pretty good. It was mainly chalky. Now, Alcarez did not work out. We had him a plus money to win the quarter, which of course ended up losing. However, we'd Zverovied's won the first quarter
at minus 110. We had hoder too, but Zverov got the job done for the second quarter though, ended up losing entirely. We had Fritz, Felix, and Kaboli that did not work out. Fourth quarter, we had Alcarez, Fis and Paul, those did not work out either. Third quarter, we had Jokovic, Anakashima, and most importantly, saving best for last. In addition to the money line, we had Tiafo at plus 800. So you know what? It wasn't exactly an amazing outright episode. Like we got the women's sweep. We got all four quarter winners correctly. However, for the men's, we got half of it right. We'd Zverovied at minus 110. But Tiafo, plus 800, single-handedly dragged us into the green of four of the actual episode. So Tiafo did us a double solid for the lock and for the outright. Plus 800, we know he always shows up here for the US Open, in good form, and he survived and advanced eight to one set of Tiafo, forgetting it done. For the hours to actually win the event, we still have life. We lost Fis immediately in a donation at 12 to 1,
lost Alcarez at plus 260. It was a great price. He was like minus 170 and during the quarter finals. But we have Zverov at plus 33, who's the prohibitive favorite to win the event. We'll see if he wins his second grand slam of the year. But plus 33 is a good spot. Massive favorite against Gashonov, and it'll be favorite against either Tiafo or Shelton and hypothetical final. But the point is Zverov still alive and we have a pretty good price at plus 33. Gonna wrap it up though for the recap of the quarter finals and move on into the breakdown of the semis, taking place on Friday. Before that, they're one of the brought to you by our sponsor. Check out Edgeboost, the Visa debit card for online, a gambling, earned at the 0.5% cashback, uneligible gaming spending, and make sure you check out the great perks of no deposit fees. Pause Instance 2477, 365 access to deposits that clear in minutes. Also, a reminder that you can check out the actual platform at edjbuse.io. Use code at Shpia when you sign up to claim your exclusive offer, $100 deposit match.
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Or the expensive. Sling lets you do that. Learn more at sling.com. Hey, what's up guys? It's Hayley Bailey. Okay, I need to tell you about something. I just got YouTube Premium. It's got tons of awesome features like offline downloads so I can download my favorite videos before I travel and watch them whenever I don't have Wi-Fi. Because we all know airplane Wi-Fi is the worst. I get to add free, I get back room play, and there's like a ton more in there. You should try it. If you like YouTube, you'll love YouTube Premium. Try it now for two months free at youtube.com slash premium. Try a eligibility varies, terms apply, cancel anytime. That's a mouthful. Parents, have you heard your kids say, I'm not a mouth kid. Well, with Mathnasium, every kid can be a Math kid. They customize their math instructions, so kids who are struggling are able to catch up and get ahead. And advanced kids are challenged to reach higher. Mathnasium makes math fun, so kids learn to love it. Parents say that Mathnasium has not only improved their kids' grades. It's given them a new level of confidence.
In Math and in school overall, visit Mathnasium.com to find a location near you. Welcome back everyone to the tennis game podcast. Finish recapping the quarter finals. Time to move on into the semi-final previews. Starting off, I know that right now the match times have not been officially announced yet. Save guests that Zverev and Kishana will go first. And the late night match will be the Americans between Tiafo and Shelton. So for the match and what I think is going to be the first one on the card, Zverev taking on Kishana. He's laying about 470. Kishana is around plus 390 for the over under. I do see the games at around 20, I'm sorry, you see the games at a 38.5 for the total. You're looking at the over under 3.5 sets. See the over at around minus 153. Under is about plus 133. Game spread minus 5 for Zverev plus 5 for Kishana. Of a bit of plus money on the 5 there for Kishana. And for the set spread, Zverev 3 nothing is at 160.
And you have Kishana of plus 2.5 at minus 185. For the head dead, Zverev has been quite good in the head dead. However, they played two times faster and hard court. And they split. Kishana got injured, had to retire in Cincinnati. Was a 75 though in the first set. But in Toronto, they played last year and Kishana of Beatom. As that was the year on the 16th, I see one in a final set tie break. So we have seen a couple of close matches recently. And at least in terms of the last year, Kishana of has at least won something in the matchups. Zverev though has been dominant. Besides that win for Kishana of, but he did beat him in Montreal in 2019 as well. Their meetings are very dated. But Kishana of does have three hard court wins against Verve. One was in Paris 2018. One was in Montreal 2019. And one of course was in Toronto last year. But three wins on a hard court against Verve is still not too shabby. And Zverev has been in good form recently. But so is Kishana, who was really bad for the last year or two. I thought he was washed. And suddenly he's back in the semi to the first time in a couple of years.
And we'll see how he does. But both guys look quite good. So far into the event. Zverev had some scares lost and ended up losing a couple of sets to Sonnego one in five. Lost a couple sets to Halus one in five. Beat to Bolo three nothing. Beat Darderry three nothing. And beat Duzantjope three nothing. Now to Bolo had a tie break into the second set. Darderry had a tie break in the third set. And Duzantjope had a seven five with a set point in that set as well. So even those Vervev has been winning three nothings recently. He has allowed opportunities for the opposition actually get potentially a set. I mean to Bolo is mainly a clay guy. Darderry is definitely a clay guy. Both of them went to tie breaks. And Duzantjope had a set point. So keep that in mind as well. But Zverev's been good. Think the door might be open though for Kashonov to do a little bit of damage here in this one. Kashonov's been great. So far into the event. Beat Barchaga three nothing. And then beating Felix who was a top seed in a four very good win there. Beat Bonzi three nothing. Beat Tien with the crowd against him in five.
Tien was undefeated in fit sets before that. And beat blocks in two and a half sets courtesy of a retirement. So Kashonov's had a pretty decent balance between easy opponents and tough opponents. I mean Tien in New York is tough that was a solid five setter. Felix he dominated against and blocks as a talent de player. But the injury kind of resulted in basically a buy for Kashonov in that one. So the match was pretty simple. Do I think Zverev's going to win? Yes. I think I'll end up winning. And I see Henry mentioning that Kashonov lost to Tomic. Winning only five games right before the US open. That was in Mexico and now he's suddenly in the semi's which is crazy to think about. But either way a point is I do things. Varyble end up winning this match. Kashonov I think will make it competitive. But I think I'll end up losing. I think that's Varyv right now is serving too well to read off the actual serving numbers for both players. Zverev has been serving absolute bombs recently. Zverev just for reference is the numbers are pretty similar actually. Except he's averaging roughly six more East's poor per match.
Now he's also landing classics Varyv 68 plus percent first serve. Which is insane when you're hitting it about 135 plus on a given basis. Kashonov though is winning 4% more second serve points. But he's landing 12% more for serves. So Zverev serves going to be tough to beat and break. And I think Kashonov might have maybe a couple of chances. But for the actual numbers here in terms of break point numbers. Zverev has faced 23 break points. Kashonov's face 29 so not that far behind but still. For break points converted Zverev has forced 81 break points. And Kashonov has forced 55. I mean Zverev is the better return. Kashonov might have a break or two in store for this match up. But Zverev I think should end up winning in this one probably in four or five. But I'm not going to pick a three nothing. I think Kashonov actually can win a set here. And he's been in some semi-finals before in the US open even. So it should not be a nervous environment for Kashonov.
He is completely free rolling. Nobody give him a chance entering the actual match. And everyone's on Zverev. So I think that once again you're looking at Michelson having a spot where the draw was open. He had a chance to make it to a semi for the first time ever. And he completely unraveled. I don't know that's going to happen for Kashonov. Yes, I know he's never been to a grand slam final before. He has one of 1,000 titles though to keep that in mind. But I think that Kashonov will definitely give Zverev all of a handle. I think he'll lose. But I'm going to go with the over in this one. I think we'll end up seeing a close match up. I think Kashonov ends up winning at least one set. And both guys are good servers. We've seen a lot of tie breaks lately for each of them. In fact, tie break in the match is at minus 185, which does both well for the over. But I do think Zverev won the winning. He's minus 530 in some spots as well. I think I'm getting the job done. But if you want to go for the over liable, which is once again, Zverev to win and both players to win a set, that's at around plus 130. I don't mind that, but I'll go for the over as my thoughts on this one.
Moving on to the next match up, the Battle of Americans for a spot in the final. You have Shelton taking on Tiafo. Shelton massive favorite minus 310, the perks of beating Alcaraz. You have Tiafo at plus 275. For the actual set spread, minus 1 after Shelton is at minus 145. Tiafo to win two sets is at plus 129. Over 3.5 sets is minus 175. The under is plus 154. For the actual game total, it's the 39.5 for the game spread. You have minus 4.5 for Shelton plus 4.5 for Tiafo. So they've faced off four times before. Shelton's been quite good. A Shelton is 3 in one lifetime against Tiafo. They have faced off two times in the US Open and they've split a Tiafo beat him in five two years ago. And they faced off three years ago and Shelton beat him in the US Open in four. Now, I will point out though that three of the four meetings did not end in straight sets. The one exception was the meeting last year, most recent one in DC as Shelton did beat Tiafo. However, it was a 7664.
It was definitely competitive, but Shelton got the job done to nothing. Now, for the path so far, Shelton has dropped a lot of sets, dropped two against Alcarez, and then a beating 60 plus, comfortably, three nothing, dropped one to Shapo, dropped one to Hercache, and dropped one to Reaksport. For Tiafo, he had a five-setter against Damien Round 1, Beat Sakamoto, Beat Vaturo, and Mevative all three nothing than when five against Mikkelsen and somehow found a way to win. So both guys have dropped sets in the event and the head to head. So I see a close matchup. Now, who do I think is going to win? I think Shelton's better. Tiafo is not in that gradient, he's lefty lately, which I think boads well for Shelton in this one. However, I do think it will be a close matchup. Both these guys know each other very well. They're friends in general off the court. I see a close matchup. We saw Tiafo make the final instance in Addy. He's been a very good hardcore player over these past couple of summer months, but the fact is, lefties have given him trouble recently. And I think that'll be an issue in this one.
For reference, by the way, his numbers against lefties. Well, I'll put it this way. He does drop a lot of sets against lefties. You win five against Dam, but I will point out that each of his last four matches against lefties have not ended in straight sets. So Tiafo tends to do a little bit of damage, but I think that Shelton based on his form and based on his serve. It's going to be tough to beat him. If Shelton keeps landing 145 on his serves, and Tiafo keeps serving in the mid 50% of for his first serve, I think he's going to lose. Just simply put, I think Tiafo has the land probably around 60% for serve to have a chance. And I'm skeptical of that potential, I'd say, I'm actually, the potential outcome actually happening. But I think Shelton's going to win. However, Shelton, we know can be quite streaky. Dropping sets the shoppo and de Greeks War. I think one bad set couldn't be on the cards here for him. We know that Shelton is still erratic at times with the unforced error issues. And I think he might end up hunting a set. I got Shelton in four as my thoughts on this one.
I think Tiafo will win a set, but I do think Shelton is simply put the better player. And I do think even though Tiafo got the job done in five against Mikkelsen, being down to nothing and a break to Mikkelsen is caused for concern. Where Shelton had an absolute war against Alcoraz, punted the first set and still found a win in five. He could have easily won that in four or even three nothing. Had he won that first set, but he showed a ton of mental toughness. And I think he's ready to make his first ever final. I'm going to go for Shelton in this one in four as my thoughts in this matchup. Don't mind on the minus one, F sets that'll add minus one, 45. They're up though for the breakdown of the two matches. Time to move on into the lock and dog picks before we get into the lock and dog. Our amount of the brought to buy our sponsor check out our fantasy. So there's a chance for you to be a millionaire. This football season down on Rogen, jump into the keep your million, start the million dollars and head your bet to cross 20 player projection questions by splitting your cash on higher lower. Keep whatever lands on the winning side. If you had zero, you're out, make it through all 20 rounds
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Welcome back everyone to the tennis game podcast, finishing it going through the preview of the semi finals on the men's side for Friday in the US Open. Time to move on into the lock and dog picks. Common theme here for the lock and dog. I am going to go with some overs. I think we're going to see a couple of close matches. For the lock, I'm going to go with the Kishonovans, Verib over 37.5, at minus 121. Great price. We have seen a lot of long sets between them individually over the last couple of months. There's been a 75 or a 76 set in seven straights, there are matches, even the three nothings against the B-Low and Darderry and was recently disansholped. All of them also had 75 or 76s, but Kishonov's also had a couple of marathons as well. There's been a 75 or a 76 in 12 of his last 17 matches. Tie break in the matches at minus 185. So I see at least one tie break, but Kishonov's playing very, very well. The path for Zverev has been very, very weak. Yes, he's been good in his actual matches,
but reading off the opponents once again ended up beating the likes of Sunnago. Who knows, talented but up and down, the Hallis as well, those two win five. Tobilo, who's Manuille Klaigai, Darderry who's Manuille Klaigai and Dazanshulp was his opponent in the quarterfinals, an absolute joke of a draw. Zverev has not faced an actual ranked opponent besides Darderry, and he's Manuille Klaigai. But it's a very easy path so far. Kishonov, those in great form, he's beaten him a couple of times on a hard court, beat him last year in Toronto, which went into the sidings set and a tie break. But the point is Tobilo is technically a ranked actually, he's ranked 28th, but two Klaigais mainly, now he's against a solid baseliner who thrives in three to five sets like Kishonov. And I think we're going to see a close matchup. I think Zverev wins, but I'll go Zverev in four. But I do think we'll end up getting at least one tie break, which boads well for the over. Give me the over 37 to have games here at minus 121 as my lock.
It's what the two meetings last year in the head dead. I do not see much intimidation for Kishonov in this one dealing with Zverev. And Zverev might get tight with dinner before, so give me the over as my lock for the show. Further the dog going to go with Shelton to win the match and both players to win a set at plus 130 are reliable. We have seen a lot of competitive matchups in the head dead between them. They have, they saw four times, three in the four did not end in straight sets. Both career, US Open meetings did not end in straight sets. And Shelton is three in one in the head to head. Tiafoh, look, he survived. Nice job by him. The problem is though the lefty damn gave him some problems in the first round. Big serve, but not really much else in my opinion that damn brings the table. And he still was up to set the one against Tiafoh. So Tiafoh has been playing well, but Mikkelsen was all over a second serve. I think Shelton will do a better job holding serve in comparison to Tiafoh. Tiafoh's first serve percentage is underwhelming. That second serve will get him into trouble like a digging his Mikkelsen.
And Shelton's serving though has been really, really good so far into the event. Think Shelton will simply put out last Tiafoh in what I think should be a four set win. But Shelton right now is winning about 3% more. A first serve points is also winning roughly about, let me just look this up right now. He's winning roughly 1% more second serve points, but he's landing 69.2% of his first serves. And Tiafoh is at 58.6. For break points faced by the way, Tiafoh's faced 46. Shelton is face 34. So I see Shelton holding more easily, but Shelton has lost at least one set in four was first five matches at this event. The one exceptional Sissy Poss, but even when he wins, tends to go a minimum of four sets. And Tiafoh has had a couple of marathons lately against lefties. Four straight lefties have forced Tiafoh to a deciding set basically. And the point is Tiafoh has really not been dominant against lefties lately.
Even went to five seconds damn in the first round of this event. I like this spot for Shelton. I think he'll win, but not in straight sets. I'll go for Tiafoh to win at least one. He'll be Shelton to win and both players to win a set at plus 130 as my dog for the show. Once again, the lock and dog, the lock's going to be on Kishanova's very of over 37.5 games minus 121. For the dog, Shelton to win and both players to win a set at plus 130. You're wrapped up there for the show. Back once again, for the women's final, we're going to wait for the women's matches to end on Thursday. Then we'll get into the women's final matches for Saturday to keep that in mind. But either way, it's going to wrap it up for the show. Back once again later on today after the women's matches. And actually, let me check the time for those matches because we might technically do it post-midnight. But we'll see how long the golf and rebuk on a match takes. So maybe we'll do it like early Friday morning around this time slot, but there will be an episode for the women's final. Until next time, good luck to all of you and all of your bets.
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