ATP Weekly: Indian Wells Preview as Alcaraz seeks third title in the desert; Can Sinner bounce back? Can Djokovic reverse IW form? Can anyone else challenger? Shelton's tough draw

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Good afternoon. Good evening. Good morning as it is in eastern time, New York or New York state.

At least Steve. How are you close to the city?

About an hour. I'm about yeah just about an hour from the city.

The train takes about hour and five minutes.

So are you in the state of New York or not?

Yeah, state in New York. What's just your county?

You know if you go north of the city you're going to you're going to use it again.

You're going to head for Connecticut or Westchester County and I'm in West

chester County. Just before we went live we were just chatting about some of the

background that you have behind you and how cool it looks especially the

image of Pete Sampress which I know that you wanted to use for one of your

books but it didn't quite work with some of the background behind

Pete. Yes. What you use that by the way do you know?

That's Wimbledon 98. Okay. Yeah that was when he was going for six

years in a row at number one and even this bitch in the final that year.

And that's just a classic Sampress running for him.

Yeah I see. So one of my friend my photographer is

sent it to me for photographer friend named Fred Malayne to

took the shot and it's a beauty and so it's here in my office and

our prior on most of our prior podcast I'm in my second office which has

includes a big television and I sit in there it's a little more wide open

space but I do like the I like the I like it I like what's behind me.

Are you are you in touch with Pete at all?

Yeah I stay in touch I do stay in touch yeah.

And he's all right? Well yeah he seems fine you know I mean he doesn't

we're yeah it's been a few months or so but yeah he seems he seems okay he

seems fine. What how does he feel about tennis? Does he watch it? Is he

is he is he avid? Is he somewhere in between? Is he just completely switched?

I'd say I know he hasn't switched off no no and he and I you know he stays

as he told me when I wrote the book of Pete Sampress Greatness Revisiting

and which was actually came out in 2020 he he he stays in pretty good

contact with Federer and I and to some degree with Joke of it

and admires them both a lot he didn't know Rafa as well but I would say he's

in that in-between category you mentioned he'll watch some and

you know I'm shooting well watch his most of the Wimbledon finals and open finals

but I don't think he's going to be glued to the set you know week in week out

but certainly the majors he gets excited and and he certainly and he was he was

really a tremendous admiration for what those three guys did

yeah I enjoyed talking to him about that trio the iconic trio because there was

no resentment and he he always was curious how he would have how he could have

mashed up against them that we had fun talking to him about how he would have

played them and how it might have panned out and

Wimbledon courts would would be favoring him like the courts of 90s and

yeah that's true that's true although I think people underestimate what he

would have done even on the slower grass because

well we'll never know but I suspect having watched him play

incredible tennis on slow indoor courts

destroying Odyssey in the 99 championships on a pretty slow court I mean he

he was he his game was so imposing that I think people would have been

surprised and obviously it's all conjecture but

I will say this when I did the book and a lot of people talked about

I got a lot of people the likes of even Isvich when he was just starting to

coach Jokovic and I had talked to Rafter and all kinds of

people Mac and Rowe and I got them all to speculate on how he would have done

against those three guys and obviously they made a lot of the major point about

the grass but I think that most of them felt just overall being the athlete

that he was yet he would have been right in all those

libraries I'm sorry we didn't I'm really sorry we didn't get

especially since we got a little glimpse with him and Roger at the 2001 Wimbledon

that that couldn't have turned into a 20 match

rivalry or something along those lines and and I also think

there would have it might have even been more intriguing to watch him play Jokovic

because there would have been even more of a contrast so that

and Rafa too so we missed out with the timing was just off

just off well it was just but isn't there something poetic about this

this Roger Federer meeting in 2001 wasn't it

yes yes yeah it was poetic and it was it also was fitting it was fitting because

it was such a great match right five set not an epic not an epic but it was a

seven five the fifth of Federer and and they both played really well and

Rogers on his way up and Pete's in that in-between phase between winning

his his thirteenth major to set the record at the time being

rafter on the center court to to not winning a tournament so the 0-2

open so he was in the middle of what was a slump for him

and a kind of a decline but he got up with this match and

and I think he came away from that match really expecting the Roger would be

a great player and and the center court audience was in raptured and

obviously Peter had his streak of 90 he'd he'd won from 93 through 95

three in a row and then he lost a cry check and then he'd won the next four

97 through 2000 so now he was going for five in a row he'd been so dominant

on that court and then and then ironically Roger lost a

henman that year in the quarters but still

we knew he'd arrived um Steve you might have to film me in on this

Pete Sampress and Indian Wells is there is was it a thing um

I'll actually haven't a Google some stuff now yeah no no he won a couple of

times uh he didn't he wanted a 94 and 5 back to back actually beat

quarter at a five set final in 94 and then 95 he beat Augustine the

finals but he always talked to me about how the balls would fly on him out

there he even though the courts tended to be slow he found that you know with

his flat strokes the ball would fly that it so wasn't

an inserving issue it was a ground stroke issue and

some players in that environment you know thrive better than others but he did

pull off a couple in a row and he later got to a final

against Agassi um so if that was a no one he lost the finals of

Agassi played pretty well that year too so he but those two in the mid-90s

were his best and that's when he won it but I the conditions were never what

he would have felt were favorable to him got it um

just like I look at this as well there's a few people that uh

that are sort of very very useful on the clay people like Michael Chang

Jim Kudia uh right right there's quite a few winners here that were

pretty good from the baseline of course Raffa's done very well here as well

over the years now you mentioned of course mentioning Chang you know Chang

had a he won a 93 96 97 I mean so that court do you

definitely like that court Michael loved that you know that it was

it's a slow hard court he really suited him and maybe

and obviously the altitude did the issue of the balls flying did

from Michael obviously we was not that was not the case I think he really liked

it out there and that was some of his best tennis outside of the slams was

played in Indian Wells yeah uh Chang of course is working with um

TN isn't he learned TN? Yes yes doing it it's a perfect match you know

Michael was the little big man of tennis at his in his time you know you look

his size compared to Agacy Sampress Currier it's not that they were

giants but they were all bigger stronger guys than him and and

Michael it just seems so fitting that you feel and you feel like TN is

kind of like Michael they're both cerebral and I I have a feeling this is

going to be a long term association and that Chang is going to be around uh

and it's perfect by the way because think of what

the misery that Michael went through coaching Nishikori not that he

not Nishikori the person they're a very likable person but the fact that K

was always injured so I think Michael felt like he never was able to get him

where he wanted him to go and every time it would look like it might happen

there'd be a new injury and so hopefully that would not be the case with

learner TN and and they can they should have many great years together

I got to feeling the way things are going learner will we we did of course

our projection for this year but I'm even more encouraged after what

learner did to Medvedev and Australia and the way he started this year

that he he certainly I'd be now at this point I'd be shocked if you did not

end the year in the top 15 and I wouldn't even be

that astonished if you may if he got to the bottom of the top 10 this year

yeah I'd probably go just outside the top 10 but but yeah as you say top 15 I

think very achievable yeah looking at the the roll call of

on of course Novak did very well here between when he's first tidal in 08

and then yeah but his most recent title 2016 that feels like a long time

ago for Novak on a hard call yeah it does I mean I think on a lot of the

you know then he started having the elbow problems so it's 17 and 18 we're

never going to happen and then he wasn't that you know he'd won the Australian

in 19 and came there but didn't play well in 19 and it just sort of

then the covid years a lot of things happen and then it's hard to say because

he wouldn't have won all those titles you would have felt like he might have

won a few more after that but Novak has just never been had his best

and we're going to see how he looks this time around too it's just that

timing is tricky and he's playing less and he comes to

Indian Wells and maybe in a slightly different frame of mind than he did in

those years when he fully expected to win the title

yeah the only thing is though I think best of three

uh is obviously I think a real scenario for him to

if he's not going to win another slam um Steve to sign off his career in the next

year two years whatever with a master's one thousand whether it be here whether

it be Monte Carlo whether it be Miami or although more whatever

you know I think that would be pretty mega

I agree I agree obviously that would be the next choice on the list even

in much preferred I mean he was two sets away from winning that austrian open

things were looking pretty good after the first set of the final

after because he beat Carlos and barely over 30 minutes in the first set of

that final of blistum 62 and it couldn't have been going better and obviously

Carlos turned that match around him fanically but still

uh yeah I agree with you if he can't have number 25 he'd love to get

one more one thousand would and and and it's got i think it's got

to happen this year though this is the year um

who's to say next year what his thoughts and plans are going to be but

he needs to strike in in uh 2026 okay um

well how are we at let's have a look at some of the runners and riders especially

at the top of the game at least to begin with

where are we at do you think with Yannick Sinner right now Steve

I think there's been i don't know how you i'm cute

i'm gonna go first because you've asked me and i'm really fascinated to see

what you think i think there's been an overreaction

i mean he lost a five set master joker was granted it was stunning in its way

given what had happened uh what what Yannick had

after he run up that string of victories against Novak starting with the

Davis Cup at the end of 23 when he saved those those three match points uh

and then you know obviously a couple of times last year at the majors and

the matches had not been close and sometimes Novak was hurting a bit

regardless it looked like it was becoming a bad matchup

but Novak played an an extraordinary match and saved 16 out of 18 break points

which was the key to him when and it's not as if Sinner across those five sets

played poorly by any means i it's okay he lost to a ten time while

straying open champion who was deeply inspired to win that night

and then then okay the next one the next tournament

losing a men's shake that was a bit of a surprise but we know that this we

know how good this kid is i mean we know how promising he is and

that one i thought that Yannick was a little bit uh

how should i say a little disheveled disheveled by his standards i didn't like

the way he played that match but he's entitled to one performance like that

let's let's just sit back and see what he doesn't

Indian wasn't Miami before we call this some kind of a crisis

because i think we just grew so accustomed to him being in the finals of

every tournament and this was during a phase when Carlos was

doing it until this last year Carlos was more up and down

especially outside of the majors but i'm not too worried about Sinner bouncing

back because those are two losses okay

uh i i actually think he's going to be really up for this tournament

i will be very surprised frankly if we don't see Sinner in the final of Indian

Wells okay uh yeah actually what what do you

thought you're your big picture thinking on him

yeah i i i i'm similar to you in fact i'd probably say even more chilled out

i think is if it depending on the nature of the defeats

who they come against uh but if he was to not win for example either Indian

Wells and Miami um i would still want to want to just hold off and just see

how the the two slams go in the summer at least um because

the nature of the two defeats he's had so far if we talk about the net which i

think is important i think of course we always talk about the sign of greatness

is winning when you're not playing well but i also think losing

and the manner of those losses unless it becomes a habit Steve if you keep

losing matches oh yeah tight matches where you had nothing

then that becomes a problem but we're talking about two matches right now

where in the you mentioned the eighteen break points only took two of those

against uh Novak he had break point opportunities including i think a 15-40

game uh against um uh against men's team and i think he had more he

one more points than men's team and i think he won more points in Novak as

well so you know there's a lot of if there's a lot of if spots and

maybe is in him and knowing how tennis works

these you keep knocking at the door and they eventually go your way

i think what might be a worry though is if he then comes up against

Carlos in the final of Indian worlds or Miami or both

and loses badly then then that would be that would almost

be worse for me than these two losses he's had already this year

because yeah he's still he's he's still one or two points away

from being in the final or semi-final of an 18500 where he probably then gets to

the final and he's also in the Australian open final and it is just one or two

points so i'm in a long way off i can't wait until after Wimbledon

before i looked at another big picture there if you like

yeah but i think you put your finger on something pretty crucial and that is

going to be the fact that we we haven't seen Carlos and and Yanuk had to head

this year yet in the last match Yanuk wanted

intern uh which was an important win for him given what had happened at the

US open against Carlos where he lost pretty emphatically in four sets so

he came into the year i think feeling pretty good having but but the the head

to head battles between the two that's going to matter a lot and

uh flip side of the coin suppose he plays one or two great matches against

Carlos and beats him in straight sets or beats him clear cut triants

then that does him a world of good because right now there was a time when he

went in feeling a lot of pressure in those matches and

maybe liking his chances knowing how great Carlos was but knowing

realizing these were important to him and his well-being as a competitor

and and now oddly the next time he put even if it's Indian Indian wells here

people are going to be looking at sinner as that i's an underdog instead of

maybe a pick a match maybe that works in his favor

definitely definitely i i think um this is obviously without seeing

either the two players play in the two tournaments as yet

but i would be leaning Carlos um as a some sort of favorite in their matchup

in Indian wells and maybe i would lean yannick in my amy uh given the the

performances of the two of them over the last couple of years at these events

of course Indian wells there was a semi-final between these two that went

three sets that Carlos prevailed in that one by the way that was 2024

that was the first tournament that Carlos won in i don't know seven or eight

months or something like that maybe even nine months right and i think since

i think he went from Wimbledon actually 2023 until uh 2024 Indian wells which

like eight know and people were blessing all sorts of panic buttons and

there was all sorts of articles out there saying Carlos is done you know

et cetera et cetera so yeah i think it's a lot i'm a long way from feeling

about yannick for sure yeah no i mean and i think you know it's

going to bring out a lot of pride by the way i think he's well aware of the

whispers he's well aware of the skeptics

and i can't be something he enjoys hearing and in that that's all a great

player need sometimes is to sort of try to silence those skeptics and

and he and his own quiet way will be trying to do that

have you been to Indian wells before yeah not for a long time though

not for i was gonna and i was i was gonna go out there the covid year in 2020

had my tickets everything all set and of course it got cancelled so it's been a

long time when was that when was can you remember when last time you were there

no i i i i couldn't even tell you know actually you know frankly i was there

at the prior site i was not at this site oh wow i haven't been out to the

tournament itself it's four runner it isn't the eighties

okay all right what did you make i'm going to show you

an image on the screen which i hope you can see but if you can't i'll run you

through it i've got Carlos Alcarazza's potential

loot to the title a Dimitrov at Manay now that would be exciting if it is

Dimitrov bearing in mind what happened in my army last year

yeah no absolutely the Dimitrov on his day and let's face it Dimitrov

recently we haven't seen this from him but let's face it he was looked like

he was well on his way to beating center at Wimbledon

last year and then had the terrible injury so he does enjoy playing the

best players and he does seem to match up reasonably well against both center

and Alcarazza yeah that would be interesting although i'm not sure it

Adman won't beat not me to a based on on current form

and he's intriguing too as a lefty and had that great Cincinnati last summer

and lost his center in the semis and had that string of winds over

coboly and fun say gun fritz hogaruna he had a great run out there hasn't lived

quite lived up to that since but he's dangerous and

and that that could be a maybe a slightly tricky match for for cars but

right now he's just so he's riding so high

to you know start the year with two titles and a 12 match winning streak he's

feeling pretty good about himself as well as well he should

there's there's there's interesting matchups for Carlos they

they're interesting in that oh there's a history there as we mentioned with

Dimitrov there's a history of postage founders answer up as well who obviously

beat him at the US open a few you know yeah matcha at all i don't know what the

history is between him and Alcarazza but i will say this the vassula of course

is still riding on the wave of winning that master's 1,000 total last year

Casparood it's obviously a big name

um it kind of actually that quarter final possibilities for Carlos as

with the exception of bublic i think it's not too enthralling there's a story

with nori because they um he's lost to nori a couple of times including last year in

paris bursi but if they played each other indian wells i think it would be very

comfortable for Carlos demonore is a terrible matchup for demonore against the

the yannick or Carlos as we see from their 20 odd matches between the two

and it doesn't necessarily get interesting until the semis for Carlos in terms of

there's a lot of intrigue in matchups because of what's happened before

but this is also a different Carlos now to the one that lost a botuch in

New York for example a couple of years ago or the one that even lost to

Dimitrov also a couple of years ago in Miami

yeah absolutely he settled down now he he seems

more sure himself week in week out and he can still

be kind of experimental with his shots at times but there's more discipline

and there's more consistency so yeah i he is

we got to see if it'll stretch out across the entire year there but there's

every sign that it will and that there won't be too many dips so i agree with

you the draw you look at that draw very unlikely we see him

struggle too much all the way into the semis and then you know the enticing

prospect of playing Novak in the semis mevada we don't know if he's going to

make it to this event jacket he stuck it you know after

winning last winning the title last week he stuck over there and he uh

they don't know when when they're going to get out Rubleb is in the same boat

yeah indeed uh hatching off i believe as well unless there's been a

development he lives there and so yeah he's also struggling to get out

and of course there's a bunch of physios and umpires and officials as well

so yeah we're obviously still monitoring that situation i think there was

optimism that they would leave today but i haven't heard any more on that

optimism uh so um i do suggest to anyone who's tuning into

go and check that out looking at Yannick's path to the final it looks

a little a little interesting in that i think Shapo would be a lot of fun

took a set off him in New York last year yeah um

Tommy Paul has pushed Yannick albeit over one set rather than

three or five but he's made a lot of very interesting sets against

against one last year um men's sick is a is a obviously

somebody who is lost or beat so Yannick recently uh

Shelton i think it's about time that we saw Shelton push Yannick either

either like a seven five in the third even if it's a loss

or you know three tight sets or even just a couple of seven sixes

it's about time we saw i think the real Shelton turn up in this particular

matchup and uh i've seen just a quick interjection i totally agree i'm just

not sure this is the place though these courts the slower courts

i'm not sure i i worry about Ben i see it happening maybe

Miami or or or Wimbledon on Wimbledon or the hard court season i'm not sure if he

doesn't good if he plays him tight here it's a very good sign for Ben Shelton

agree i think he might get some some bounce on the serve though he might get

that yeah that's true but i agree listen i just want to see

Ben anywhere probably off of clay in particular anyway just just to have a

really good matchup with Yannick and and why not here in Indian Wells and

and i just want to see because i think it's i do think it's there because it is

there for three games or six games or or a period of matches where he's either

the better plabby he just can't seem to do it across three or five sets against

Yannick and and really push him close and he should be he should be doing more than

just barely laying a glove as he has done in some of their slam meetings over

the last year or two uh yeah by John if it's not if it's not Ben

let's just looking strictly at Indian Wells and let's say Ben doesn't get there

and it's men's chick again that that would be that'd be fascinating to see them play again

so soon and Yannick coming off the loss obviously i would expect i would expect

sinner to avenge it but might be another hard fought tight could be another three center

yeah i think uh Paul Benoff's in his draws well it's pretty rough i think he's got ADF

perhaps early on in the tournament he's also got men's sick and the fourth man i don't think

they come much tougher than that when you when you're seated as high as Ben is so he's got a really

rough boot and then obviously if he does get through those then get Yannick in the quarters um

the semi-final for Yannick could be Zvedev but Zvedev has never got to the semis in Indian Wells

before amazing yeah hard to believe hard to believe but again you know maybe i don't know because

with that serve hard court slow hard courts or not it's it's it's a little inexplicable to me

and he's just come off at the disappointing loss last week yeah it cuts my out of it's just

beat him and uh he he was tiring again by the way in that match in akipoko he looked like he was

fading physically at the end again and having little trouble breathing and it was it was a night

match it wasn't i think i'm not sure it was maybe under 80 degrees maybe it maybe it was a little

bit stifling but that was concerning but his history here is probably even more concerning so i

out yeah you know maybe he's maybe he's due to fight fight let let's let he's due for a good

Indian Wells and maybe this is the year he i mean he wants to get he wants to kickstart his year he

thought he looks back on Australia and obviously it really laments the fact that he served for the

match and couldn't quite get across the finish line against Carlos so he'd like to really get

things moving swiftly now uh jock of it's his route i'm going to bring up on the screen as well

in a moment now but i do know that it has maybe mutei which i'm you never well you kind of sort of

know which mutei is going to turn up is in like it's going to be an unpredictable one and i would

like to see that match up um because i think it could be a lot of fun of course jock of it she's

in the same half as um Carlos alcovas so that's i don't really know well that that that for that

fourth round looking at at your chart here and i this is one of the ones i noticed immediately when

i looked at the draw but of draper uh that would be fun they've only had this one match of wimble

in years ago and he took a set off of no back on the center board and no back went on to care of

him from there but yeah we have jack trying to re-emerge here and you know he he just needs matches

right now and that would be a that would be a fun match for the spectators that this great lefty

server again against an explosive player coming up coming up against no back and i think the fans

would get uh get they that's one they would relish absolutely relish i actually think now having

i saw this draw yesterday but i'm watching it again uh i'm seeing it again and i think it's not

that great for no back compared to the previous two players we just looked at with yannick i think

her catch round three is not ideal they're a really good tussler wimble then i'm still waiting from

maybe her catch to do three months of really good solid tennis having come back from that injury

so i i'll see him in spells like he'll have a good like tournament pre-Australia and then at the

australian opening he he lets himself down a bit i think who be as he often does at slams in my

opinion so that's not ideal anyway for no back draper round four fritz i think medvedev is also

a possibility in the quarter final medvedev despite it being slow hard core is kind of funny

because he's still been in a couple of finals here and i've been more over the years fritz fritz

where we at with Taylor fritz right now by the way because i'm not really sure about taylor and his

health etc it's hard to say you know he just came and played this past weekend in that tiebreaker

event in the west coast yes where which okay granted you don't have to really tax yourself

and it's a little bit hidden giggle the guys enjoying it you didn't feel like he was in

danger of injuring himself there but it's like taylor never wants to put the racket down there's

never a turn there's never a tournament that he doesn't want to play he can be pretty beat up

and he still wants to go so i'm like i'm with you and i'm i'm a little bit uh uncertain what to

expect from him right now uh he should be able to uphold his seating and get to the quarters but

i'm not i'm not i'm not that sure you know based on on the early season start and

not really knowing the state of his body right now lost that tough battle in Dallas

to shelton great match match match points and three match points and great effort from bend to pull

it out but but then of course he goes right on to del ray just keeps playing so i i'll be fascinated

to see what level we get out of taylor fritz who of course is one this title you know he wanted

in 22 and when when both he and raffle were both beleaguered beaten up figures you know

was a question of who was injured more that day and good good for taylor because his coaches

were very worried about him going out on the court that day and he just said i'm playing and

in that case he was vindicated so look he has nice feeling nice history year with that triumph but

right now i just don't know how he's feeling an underrated match from that particular tournament

by the way is raffle against carlos in the semis i thought that was so much fun and it was a lot

of wind that day yes yes that semi that semi final i think it was probably the last time i know

they played each other again in Madrid i think later the same year and carlos won that particular

match but it was probably the the only time when i think those two came up against each other

somewhere near sort of either the peak of their powers of course raffle is in probably his last

best year on tour i know he came back in 2024 but he was a shadow himself carlos is still growing

as a player but that was the year he arrived he would go on to win his first grand slam that year

and of course he had a great one in Madrid as well but i just i mentioned but it was the only time

that those two really went head-to-head in a sort of evenish way because they played there a year

before carlos was still a boy and he looked like a boy in their Madrid match in 2021 but by 2022

carlos was very much a man and ready to take on raffle in in a place where raffle had done so well

before yeah now i think yeah that was a fun it was a fun match to watch and the conditions were

miserable yeah they were they were and a raffle was so good i can think of so many times you know

when he dealt with with with absolutely impossibly different and impossible winds and and turn it

to his advantage yeah and use his slice back in and measured his forehand well and just

uh and in that case he he was much more capable in those conditions than carlos but it still

was a terrific match so and and and of course it was bad luck that we could have had a whole

string and look what we've gotten even if even if no back in carlos never played again which is

highly unlikely now i think we're gonna see a could could see it here again this week but we're

certainly likely to see it two or three times this year at least that that they will have ended

up having a really in intriguing and enjoyable rivalry and that's more than we could have bargained

for when they first started when they played their first match in in Spain back in 22 yeah indeed

which was a third third set tie break to carlos by the way they they started right out of the

blocks with a with a tremendous match yeah that was a great match yeah and in fact we then had to

wait i think basically more than a year i think they didn't play each other again until the

fence open of 23 right right that's right well because that was that that was you know a tricky year

for for uh no back and and he was missing events and wasn't wasn't the open and it's true we did

we had a long wait but it was well worth it and then starting in 23 20 but look we've just had a

smorgas board since then you know i mean granted carlos cramped up at the French that year

which was too bad and it was it was painful to watch him those last two sets dealing with full

body cramps but two great sets to start the match that they split and then of course we've

we had their epic at the Olympics a two tie breaker win for no back we had a no back since an

Adi incredible match showcase from match point down in the summer of 23 we had the RC quarter of

last year the final of this year carlos beating or no back into semis in the open last year's

now i mean they haven't all been blockbusters but they've had so many first rate battles

absolutely yeah right i've got a couple of questions regarding these sort of the big three i

guess that we have at least going into this tournament uh is jock of itch making the semis

i'm saying i'm always i'm always a big believer but i'm saying the odds are 40 i'm saying 55 45

against yep i would i would maybe go a little bit stronger just because of some of the inexplicable

losses he has i almost feel that i like to see jock of itch a bit on edge and something to prove

and yet i don't think he feels like that in the end well he's won the tournament a few times

enough to give him you know it's i think Monte Carlo maybe he might just feel like i've got to do

something here but yeah no i agree i agree and you know you put your finger on something again

John because think about that that press conference in australia where he got asked by i think one

of the british reporters asked him about in the in the notion of chasing he was always being the

one who was chasing now he was chasing carolos and sinner he took offense to that understandably

because the guy left out that as he put it you know you're forgetting about the 15 years in between

when i dominated the slam yeah but that seemed to really rouse i mean i feel that it's something

to do in the end with the performance against sinner that that gave him that extra push that just

extra edge of motivation so you're right is that if he he's more likely to find that in in in

Monte Carlo i think he's just hoping in in new wells at least get a couple of matches in

yeah and and i don't think he'd leave that disappointed at that with the case but by

Monte Carlo the juices might be flowing more by that yeah i don't like the draw that much for him either

which is another you know you put it i wanted to comment on that yes just to get back to your

earlier point let let's say he had to play parry card and then her caution then draper might not

get a heck of a lot of rhythm there you know a huge server in parry card a huge server in her

caution and then a lefty big server in draper yeah those are not the kind of matches that allow you

to develop any kind of back court rhythm so that would be it that that that's why i worry a bit about

can he get through all of those given that this is his first tournament since Melbourne right and if

if Taylor in particular is to get his first win over no back it might well be in the desert and in

the quarters for example and even if mevadev as well as there it's i think it's about time that

mevadev reversed the trend that he's had against no back over the last few matches so yeah and i

just think therefore there's just too many if spots and maybe and also just because we've seen

some pretty rough losses for no back in indian wells that well it's yeah yeah you're right the

last two years have been very strange but i think it's just all gets back to like he is constantly

trying to figure out how much he can play in realizing he has to play last but then that leaves you

more susceptible to these losses because you're not match tough i mean it would have done him good to

if he if he'd been able to play do by you know or dohar if he if he played one tournament in between

australian here he might and and did okay then he comes here maybe ready to to make much more of a run

so i think it's it's a real catch 22 don't play too much because you could get injured play too

little and you you leave yourself vulnerable yeah indeed so the only other question i have is

i mean it's really just saying Carlos is the favor like to win the title between him and him and

Yanukid it's it's Carlos yes oh it's Carlos given given his history here giving his start to the

year i think he's the clear favorite yes and that's why i say if center somehow got center gets

the final which i don't say somehow on the final i expect him to be there but if he's somehow

toppled Carlos and the finals here uh that would do him a world of good because i think he knows

that people are looking at Carlos as yeah as the prohibitive favorite yeah one or two people there's

one or two murmurings and at the moment they're just murmurings but i have seen one or two podcast

as out there and journalists suggesting that there might be a little bit of a gap opening

between Carlos and Yanuk i would want to see those two play each other a couple of times this year

before i started saying that if Carlos beat him over the sunshine double a couple times for

example especially if one of them was comfortable then i might be more comfortable about talking about a

gap but until i see them then play each other because if we talk about you know Carlos has

sometimes these inexplicable losses to botich in 24 the uh the us open uh against gap goffan a year

ago even maybe camnorian in power spursy as well yeah right Yanukid still not having those losses

Yanuk's losses to no vacan men sick are very very different in terms of the caliber of the

opponent and the now in us of the defeat as well but let's just stop let's just stop for if you don't

mind brief comment to look back over the rivalry you know okay so the recent rivalry especially the

fact that Carlos had won the five in a row uh and and and i'm a and sinner with all kinds of

chances and all those matches and uh it's the the the most devastating obviously being rolling

garros ways two sets to one up and five three and the fourth love 40 on Carlos has served triple

match point and he loses seven six in the fifth and uh that was the end of the five in the right

that was the last of the that was the last of the five exactly that made it five in a row and that

was just a crushing blow that he did bounce back beautifully to beat Carlos and the wimble and

final in four then he yeah then since an adi was not a real match frankly i don't think

sinners should have stepped on the court but he he tried to play then the open was disappointing for

center that it wasn't closer and that's when he started talking about how he needed to add all

that variety in his game he needed to make some changes it comes back and beats him in turn so

it's he's he's shown a couple of times when he had when he was in one of those must win situations

he did come through so that Carlos didn't develop this just huge confidence against him that i

i can't lose to this guy i mean Carlos has great respect for him so i just think i'm with you

in the sense i want to see their next two or three matches what happens then how well it now

now if sinner were to get badly beaten in the next two or three then that then then then

the then he's got a serious problem on his hands but i somehow i don't see it i don't see it i'm

not saying he won't lose to him i'm just saying i don't see him losing badly and i i see i see him

splitting the next two matches in my mind yeah i wouldn't be surprised i wouldn't be surprised if one

goes one way in my in indian wells in the other way in in my army but that's a uh a little bit down

the road um what i'm probably struggling with most is i think that whether you whether you

want or think or ultimately believe in indianical Carlos that may be um up to you to decide and i'm

talking about you plural as in the audience but um but i think it's also pretty objective and you

can layer out pretty clearly why Carlos is the favorite going into this tournament um i also think

we've given our reasons as to why we have doubts on Novak making the semis what i am struggling with

is then beyond that because if we start thinking about the next sort of layer well we've already

spoken about Ben Shelton his tough draw maybe the conditions as well so there's a doubt

as to whether he can get even to the quarters potentially um tailor fits we've already highlight

his issues in terms of form and injuries as well mevadev and rooblev and hatching off we're not

even sure when they're going to arrive in indian wells so that's huge huge concerns over there

not just uh going deep in this tournament but also participation and what kind of condition

they'll be in demonore has somebody called Carlos Alcarazini's path in the quarters so i think

demonore going beyond the quarters is it's going to be tough plus he might have to play bubblyk

as well uh on route so it's quite difficult draper of course it would normally be in the conversation

for a deep run and maybe even getting to the quarters or the semis but but his issue of course is

that he's just not quite i think whenever i'm assuming draper doesn't win the title and whenever he

loses as long as it's not too early we'll go another great great tournament for jack couple of

matches under his belt some good wins going out to Novak for example no share in that etc etc

and i think and we'll just go you know what it just wasn't quite ready to to win say meant

me new wells are going to the final but there's not there's not really a player who we're going

this guy look out for him he's making the semis or he's a shoe in for the quarters

Casparoude is somebody who i do think should be doing well in indian wells but he's also got

Carlos Alcaraz fairly early on in his path so it's quite difficult picking out a sort of a fourth

player you know i don't i don't have the answer no i think that you summed it up well i feel the

same way and it's such a hard tournament to gauge you know in a lot of ways john you look at the

year and obviously everybody jumps right into the deep water quickly when they go to australia it's

boom you're right into your first major of the year you've got a couple a warm up tournament or

it's just not a lot it hasn't been that long at offseason and you're right out there playing a slam

and then that period after australia pride in in wells it's i don't think everybody's paying

that much attention to got but now it's like suddenly the year starts in earnest in a way

because we go from indian wells to Miami through all the clay to roll in garros to three weeks of

preparation wimbledon hard court season us open it's just a it's such an impactful five six months

coming up and i i somehow indian well as it sort of gets the ball rolling but it's becoming

harder than it was in years going by to other than expect other than those two it isn't hard to

imagine i still say the odds are quite good on a sinner alchora's final yeah and that much i

think we can feel fairly comfortable saying but beyond that even who's going to play them each of

them in the semi-files i i'm not putting myself on the line and you know that i usually am happy to

do that not this time not this time i feel it really really tough by the way i'm done if you can

see this section of the draw i'm sharing on the screen with you right now yeah from this from eight

to twelve i can read out some of the names anyway and this is just a small section of the draw and

it has ben shelton in it it has learner tn it has allahandle to davidich faquina

yes right i'm en sick in it as well right right all of those players you know could make a semi-final

if the if the draw was okay for them doesn't even need to be a great draw just a normal draw and

that and they could but they are all i mean you got you got shelton perhaps playing learner tn in

the third round and then shelton potentially playing yaku mensic in the fourth round and then

potentially no that jock of it's in the court finals and that's the number eight seed you know

a number eight seed should be having a nice ish route potentially to to the quarter finals but

no that draw i it's a night you you said it well i mean that draws kind of a it's a very

arduous path for ben i mean for i would only get i'm only giving him a slight edge over learner tn

yeah and yeah well it's not it's not great for yaku mensic either davidich faquina in the third round

no no followed by i agree i agree although i'm for my kind of like mensic getting through the

davidich faquina match but i but then i don't know what to expect against the winner of shelton and

learner tn so it's that kind of a tournament and in some ways i think that's a positive thing that we

that we can pretty much count on carlos and just about count on sinner to to do their thing but

that these other guys we we don't know quite what to expect and there's some that section is maybe

the most interesting in the entire draw what you have up on the screen now i i think so too um but

yet it's really difficult to say we need to talk about this guy because i mean maybe artifice is

someone i just thought about as i was looking at the draw maybe that he's in not too bad a section of

the draw i'm just going to go up to his section here he has got potentially Lorenzo muceti but

muceti hasn't played since getting injured in australia so again we'll talk about being a bit too soon

for certain players muceti as well as never never been as that super deep he's not being the same

as all the final anyway so maybe there's this section here rublev as we say we don't know about

his participation he's in the same section uh Felix is in here as well but yeah maybe maybe artifice

is a is a guy who could could really you know go deep especially as he is now really returning to form

and coming off a final that was a great performance he beats menschick after menschick had beaten

sinner and granted he got obliterated by by Carlos but i still don't think that was a devastating

blow he was thrilled to be in the finals and wish he could have made it closer with alchoraz

but so be it yeah he could be dangerous here i mean i do expect him to get by muceti and

and then we'll see about rublev or Felix after that but that's an interesting section wouldn't

surprise me at all if he's if he was the one they get through that section indeed all right um

i'm going to give you about i'm going to give you two or three players and i want you to just

to choose one and talk about them in a bigger picture uh let's go with either uh kaboli

tiafo or um tomipal give me give me one of those three that you'd like to just talk about

before we wrap things up well we just saw that final between kaboli and and tiafo and

because it was a nice win for for kaboli to take that title it was an uplifting week for

Francis who hadn't played well for a while there's just getting to the finals and

scraping some matches out i mean it was that was that was the kind of development that he needed

uh i don't know i i want to see kaboli because is it too soon is he sometimes these guys coming

off a title run to have a letdown and physically they're not up to it that's the only thing

the word right i could play each other again by the way in round for him so put that in that

chat again yeah that would be interesting i'd still favor kaboli although i think the difference

this time would be the crowd would be more even more more animated for for for Francis you know an

american crowd and i and who was the you mentioned the third after kaboli and tiafo yeah the other

one was tomipal just because he's not seen for a while lots of injuries last year well good

dowray good dowray yeah to the finals and and uh and that was important he did lose the quarter

there uh but that wasn't that wasn't uh that was that was a that was a good thing it was good to

see him in the finals he had a good week played a great match against learner tn i thought an

excellent strategic match yeah uh so tommy tommy could do very well in the desert and you were

mentioning more at the top of the show about his attributes and uh i look again it's just

wildly unpredictable you know there's anybody counting on anything through these it's just

it's so wide open among between and among these other players when we get past the the top two

seeds that that's what's going to make this a particularly interesting in he was we're going to have

more interesting early round matches i'd say really from the second round on but particularly from

third round on from 16's on i think i think that there's the there's a van of 16 i've seen all the

potential sort of van of 16's and i did see some really good ones in there even round three but

there's some good round four potential matchups you know um men's sick against shelton being one

of them jokovic draper you know these are pretty mouthwatering and i also been reasonable you know

i think jokovic and draper have some rounds of of optimism to get that far as well so yeah there's

certainly some mouthwatering and by the way the other ones can be mouthwatering in their own way i just

maybe not going to be paying that much attention to yannick and carlos for the first week or so

fascinated by some of these other matchups as well but um but when they come up against carlos and

yannick i'm probably going to be switching over to a different core yeah no i agree the other

matchups are going to be uh they're going to be very intriguing i mean you you you point into the

sections of the draw that offer the most uh that that are so appetizing for all the spectators so

it's going to be great tv and great viewing for those in indian wells and i think we're going to

have one of the better additions of the tournament this year here are here are some of the

projected round of sixteenths by the way so this is obviously just going on seed and there's all

sorts of things that can go on but uh alka as casparoud philix against musetti jokovic jay draper

shelton mencic medvedev fritz hatchen of sinna kabolli's vetev and bubliq demonore i think um i think

we've already sort of highlighted but i think jokovic draper and shelton mencic would be the two

most interesting of of those uh eight matches potentially i think so i think so i mean i don't

i don't expect caspar to do much of anything against karlis he's a he's a he's a wildly veteran

i unfortunately sadly i mean he's he's going to remain a top 15 player for quite some time are

we're going to see that the the version of casparoud had made it to three grants them finals two

it rolling garros and one at the us open i don't think so you know at that time i mean you look

back at the moment pin the strike steve you know sometimes there's a sweet spot you know chillich for

example when he struck on those occasions um you know the other other other players that have won one

stroke two slams they've got in there they've taken their chance and hats off to them he probably

needed to strike somewhere in that in that spell well i think if casparoud was going to strike

karlis at the 22 open it come off three five centers in a row three three in a row and he plays

root of the five he was up a break on no back in the first set and he had a smash on top of the net

that he missed when he was up a break and that in the end of game this is in the first set in

roll on garros now who knows he loses in four sets but that's more interesting than it was

yeah yeah because then no back being in the in straight bill of the third set went to seven five

now that's true but but the match with karlis was also quite good for hard fought four center but

you think that might have been the time because karlis that was his first major so maybe you're

going to get outmired i think even in humid karlis because he'd been on the court so it's so long

yeah yeah he'd been through the wars but but but again and then we've lost the two french

finals to get beaten badly by raffa in 22 and then you mentioned the no back match in 23 but

i'm just saying i don't i don't see more of that for him in the future i see lots of

some quarters and some semis it slams possibly but i don't see any more finals for him and i

and in in terms of beating alchorize here and anywhere as i know i think it's kind of a four and four

and five type match yeah agreed uh steve i've written these some of these books here in in the can

you see that in the um description they're just below um some of these books i've got i've got

Pete sam was great we're visited match of the 20s said 20th century and the greatest tennis

matches of all time i've got those titles correct i hope yes you do and then the new one will be out

in uh in it will be out on august 4th uh it's and it's called the immortals of american tennis

okay those are my sketches on about it comes out to eighteen players and then some on a bunch

of honorable mentions as well sketches of them and their historical impact and it's more of a coffee

table style book but still about three thousand words i write on each each of these players going

back to tilled and bud chelan was moody all the way up to serena and pete samperous and

and you know the modern generation march on some of those older players excuse me

is it hard to research on some of those older players no no i mean i've done it before too i've

done written on them in different ways in the greatest matches book and uh no i have quite a bit

as an historian i've got plenty to draw on there but you want to bring it across to readers

in a way that's going to make it interesting to some sixteen-year-old picking up the book today

and i hope it'll just make them more aware that the game didn't start uh the the game tennis didn't

start with with jokovic jokovic nadal a feather you know and it's hard for a lot of young

enthusiasm to believe that but it but it was it you know it was an astray and publisher that came

to me with this idea and i'm i'm happy about it it's a good looking book and so that want to be out

about six months oh i good well we'll we'll get you on again to talk about that later on in the year

great terrific terrific look forward to a job but this was fun and so in the end i i will say this

the final alchoraz versus sinner i am going to give you the prediction there alchoraz six four five seven

six three all right three sets here i could could even be straights for me that's obviously a little

down the line but i do i do obviously i'd want to see how the next ten days pan out for those two

players but i think our conclusions after the draw sometimes i'll i'll be like you know um what i

what i often like to think about post-draw um Steve is does this is this player's uh chances

enhanced or or made worse uh or diminished i should i think the word i was looking for um or are

they about the same and i think for yannick and carlos i think maybe yannick's chances of

making the final are equal and i think carlos's chances of making the final have enhanced post-draw

and therefore his odds on winning the title of shortened uh and i think probably the chances of

Novak making the final or the semis have diminished slightly so that gives you a sort of a slight

balance in my opinion on how the draw panned out nice for carlos okay for yannick maybe not not so

Novak yeah i'd agree with that i mean obviously we don't know exactly what to expect from Novak

we don't know what happens if he gets his teeth into the tournament and gets on on a on a bit of a

role and but as i say i don't i don't think the types of matches he's going to have to play

i would rather see him play some baseline is that allow him to get in some 16 18 stroke exchanges

and find his range and find his rhythm and i don't know if he's going to get that chance here

because he's going to be playing big servers and quick points and and you know it that that's

that's not ideal when you're not when you haven't played since you since you're uh since the

Australian open indeed right big thanks for joining us today Steve thank you john enjoyed it

and to everybody else you know the trick if you enjoyed this video make sure you hit that like button

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