B.C. Conservatives rocked by defections. What happens next?

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1:02Shop official merch, including hats, mugs, tote bags and more. Designed for readers who like their journalism bold. Visit postmedia.store today. BC's conservative party has been rocked with defections in recent weeks, mere months after Carylyn Finley was elected leader. The events are the latest in a couple of years of turmoil in right of center politics in BC as the conservative party has grown as the main opposition to the governing NDP. I'm Dave Breakin-Rage and this is 10-3. Vancouver Sun columnist Vaughn Palmer joins me to discuss what led to Finley's ascension as conservative leader. Why some MLA's have jumped ship? And whether it means NDP premier David E.B. could call a snap election. Don't forget you can find us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google, Amazon Music. I'd love it if you could leave us a rating or review and tell your friends about the show.

2:02So Vaughn, we're going to talk about BC politics today and for those who may not know, politically BC is kind of an interesting place. You know, for a long time, the conservative movement or people tied to the conservative movement, well, at least I find this interesting. In recent years, they've been aligned with the BC Liberals, notably under the government of Christy Clark. But in recent years, we started to see a bit of a realignment on the right. When did that realignment start happening? Was it under Clark or after Clark? It happened after Clark and when the NDP got into power. So the NDP got into power 2017 and a power sharing arrangement with the group. The Greens and then went on and won a full majority in 2020. So during that period and this has happened in the past, the parties in British Columbia that are not the NDP, tend to reorganize themselves while the NDP is in power.

3:02In the past, they've managed to do that fairly quickly in the 70s. They did it in three years and three months. In the 90s, it took them 10 years. This reorganization is still a work in progress and I have to tell you, I checked the count this morning and I think there's like a half dozen political parties out there, all some without even a name claiming that they are going to be the party that's not the NDP for the future. So it's a work in progress and a lot of uncertainty out here. So what happened in the wake of the Clark government with kind of right of center politics, because I know the liberals wanted to rebrand and then you had kind of a resurgent conservative party under John Rustad. How did that all take shape in the wake of the NDP win? You know, I think there was a spill over effect from what was happening federally. Pierre Polly-Ebb and the conservatives were very, very popular out here, particularly when Justin Trudeau was the prime minister.

4:08And I think the conservative brand caught on and you also had the liberals changing their name to BC United. That didn't catch on, weekly led and Rustad at the last minute before the 2024 election, managed to capitalize and create a unity movement calling itself the BC conservatives, and he almost won the election. I mean, the 2024 election in BC, our elections tend to be close, but David E.B., the NDP, held on to his majority in 2024 by one seat and 22 votes, and had Rustad managed to round up 300 or 400 votes in another three or four writings. He would have been premier British Columbia. That's how close it was. So that's what happened, but it didn't cement his hold on the BC conservatives.

5:08But they forced him out last year. There was an internal party revolt, shook up confidence in him. He decided rather than split the movement and the vote and the province, he quit. They had a leadership race, and right at the end of May, a new leader, Carrie Lent-Findley wins the leadership, becomes leader of the conservatives, very, very narrowly. They had one of these point systems that you award to each writing. In the final ballot, Findley, there were 22,000 votes cast, and Findley won by 60 votes in the raw vote. So like a tenth of a percentage point against another candidate, Caroline Elliott. So very, very close outcome, and the troubles really started there as well. Going back to John Rustad for a second, what was it about his leadership that party members said, okay, you got us almost to the promised land, but that's not good enough. We want you gone.

6:14Is it just that they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, or was it something about his leadership that kind of rubbed people the wrong way? Why, if he almost unseated the government, did they not want to let him kind of build on that electoral growth, let's say, and establish the party as a government waiting? Well, I'm tempted to say this is a party with a death wing. You know, I mean, some of the stuff they've done does not make a hell of a lot of sense. And scheming against Rustad was one of them, but they did. And, you know, he made some mistakes as a leader who doesn't, but he had a lot of experience. He was strong on some issues, but, you know, what can you say? When he left, they got an interim leader, and in the spring of this year, that interim leader, Guy name Trevor Halford, and his caucus did a terrific job of holding the NDP to account.

7:14The new Democrats, their approval rating was David Ebis approval rating it down around 30% at one point. The government had a lot of problems. The government had been in power for 10 years, and when you've been in power for 10 years, you're aware of everything. You know, massive deficits and problems with street crime and disorder, waiting lists in the ERs, even though they'd spent a fortune adding the health budget. So you really had the party in a great position when they picked the new leader. But, finally, in my view, took the wrong approach. When you win that narrowly, when you win by 60 votes or the 22,000 cast, the first job should be unity, bringing everybody together, recognizing that the only parties in BC history that have ever beaten the NDP are a mixture of the political spectrum that isn't NDP.

8:17She didn't do that. She cleaned house, she demoted some of their most effective critics. She cleaned house in the opposition leader's office and brought in some very controversial people, and she cleaned house at the party. And she acted like somebody who won an enormous mandate she had not done so. And after, well, we've won three months now. You've had a whole bunch of people leaving saying they just don't think she's the electable. They don't think she's a unifying candidate. They don't think she's got the essence of what in the past has defeated the NDP in BC, which is a party that attracts liberals, conservatives in the past to attract reformers in a long time ago to attract social creditors. And they just don't think they think Fingley is acting like a winner-take-all person who has this enormous mandate, which she does not have.

9:18And I want to talk a little bit about Carolyn Finley. She's, many Canadians may not know who she is, but she's far from a newcomer to politics. What's her background and how did she come to provincial politics? Yeah, you know, that's a good point. She's a former federal cabinet minister. In fact, she was in, I guess, Harper's last government. She's a federal MP. So we saw it this week. They had an all candidates debate. She's in a bi-election, right? She's tried to win a seat in the legislature for when the house sits in October. And so they had an all candidates debate. And she presented well. And she knows issues. She knows her stuff. She's fairly well informed. So it's not so much policy. And it certainly isn't lack of experience. It is much more the approach she's taken to leadership. She brought in people. Well, she said to fire one of them already. And another has left. So really it's a question of her judgment in building a unified party.

10:30I'm taking a kind of winner-take-all approach rather than deep fundamental policy divisions, although there are some of those. We'll be right back. The end is now available everywhere in the US. So you can get in on the sports action no matter where you are, including these places. This year, most rewarding season ever with Fandru, agent location restrictions apply, product availability varies by market. CFandru.com for eligibility gambling problem called 1-800-Gemma. There is so much NFL on ESPN right now. Monday night football, plus pregame and postgame. NFL live, NFL prime time. Everything you need to stay on top of every game every week. Unbelievable. And now NFL Network is on the ESPN app. More football, more coverage, more ways to watch.

11:36Football's on. All season long on ESPN and streaming on the ESPN app. So going back to the leadership campaign, you know, leadership campaigns in party politics in Canada can be interesting because you get, you know, in some ways candidates are all kind of cut from the same cloth. And then they're trying to differentiate themselves. I remember one of the last federal conservative races. I think it's the one where Aaron O'Toole won, where everyone was trying to be, including Peter McKay, who a lot of people would not have necessarily equated as being staunch, true, blue torries, right. And Aaron O'Toole ultimately won that race. But how, what was the leadership campaign like? How did, how did Finley position herself? How did her Carolyn Elliott position herself? And how is she trying to position the party as compared to the NDP and now the rebranded liberals under BC United?

12:46The biggest and most bitter division in the leadership was that Elliott, who'd never been elected to the legislature before and who had ties to the old BC Liberal Party and BC United parties, brought in some organizers from Ontario, particularly Corey tonight. And that was a, just you don't say a red flag when you're dealing with a blue party, but that was a patient with conservatives, particularly conservatives whose loyalty was to Pierre Paulier, because tonight was associated with Doug Ford and with some attacks. Now, it's hard to believe that that would be the kind of thing that could decide a leadership race except Finley only beat Elliott by 60 votes. So it didn't take much to tip it. And that really was it, it was that more than any deep policy divisions that affected that race.

13:52You know, in general, the parties in BC that have defeated the NDP tend to be economically and fiscally conservative, but not necessarily socially conservative. It's not, it's a more secular province and it's not a province where all of that social conservative issues necessarily do all that well. So that was where the division was in the leadership. And again, you go well, you're one by 60 votes, you probably should be going out there building a lot of bridges to people and build on what happened in the spring, which is you had a very effective opposition. And again, I think opposition parties work best when they hammer away at the government's weaknesses, but when a party is this divided internally and you've had nine people quit already over in nine MLAs quit over Finley's leadership.

14:54They've generated more headlines about their internal splits than they have holding the government to account. And I emphasize this is a government with huge, huge problems. Record setting deficits, no plan to bring the books back into balance. They got caught. They had to admit over the summer that they made a $1.5 billion miscalculation in this year's budget regarding tax gas revenues. So as does that government this got huge problems, but you know, it's an old line in politics that you know, you don't need to be a 10 to win an election. If your opponents are two, you only need to be a three. And we're seeing a David Amy must be one of the luckiest politicians around because he's doing okay at the moment because the conservatives are such a mess. So I know you talked about in the wake of her win, she, you know, she cleaned house in the party and and you know, tried to really put her stamp on the party. And that's led to defecions and we will talk about the defecions in a second, but I'm just wondering when she first won his leader and started to put her stamp on the conservative party, what were you hearing in terms of reaction to her victory and her approach?

16:14Right from the beginning that she was pushing aside some of the best and most effective critics she had that she was pushing aside key staffers who had had a lot to do with the party doing so well. And the irony I mentioned that Elliott got in trouble for bringing some guy in from Ontario well a couple of the people that have quit the conservatives are mad because Finley brought in people from gas Alberta right. So you know it it's like as I said right from the beginning she was on an agenda that didn't make sense from the part point of view of unifying a party after such a narrow win. And really that problem continues although there's a buy election two weeks from tomorrow in a seat in the legislature where one of the conservatives resigned her seat got a job as chief of staff to Finley and Finley is now running in the seat and she probably win.

17:22In fact the NDP is nominated a candidate against her former cabinet minister but we're kind of going to the NDP really want to win this by election you know they'd probably be just fine if Finley gets elected and that divided party is what's represented in the legislature because you've got five departed conservatives who say they're going to be a new political party in the house when it sits October the fifth they'll be the third largest party in the legislature. And you've got three other parties out there at least claiming status as the one true party of the center right this is just a mess. Sounds like a huge mess. You talk about you know Finley bringing in staff from Alberta and I know one of the names has been floating around in media reports is someone who has ties to a separatist party here in Alberta. What's what's been Finley's position regarding Alberta separatism and is there concern that that either the higher of this individual who I believe is no longer with the party or even just being friendly to Alberta separatists hurts the conservative movement in BC.

18:33I think it probably does I mean but if you go back to what I said about one of the reasons that Rustad did well was a spillover effect from how well polyev was doing when Justin Trudeau was prime minister the liberal brand was not popular out here. One reason why the then leader of the BC liberals Kevin Falcon decided to change the party named to something else was because the brand wasn't popular. But if you now look at what happened here just recently you had a bi election in BC Mark Carney won an easy victory the liberal brand now federally is more popular in BC and in fact you got some people out there who want to bring back the liberal party in BC so I mean eventually. So I think part of the spillover effect that helped the conservatives back when polyev was very popular and the liberal brand was badly damaged out here that's kind of flipped now you know you look at our opinion polls out here and the liberal brand and now you know Carney is as much by much higher approval rating here as well as he does the rest of the way across the country.

19:49So let's talk the defecions now you as you said there's a number of defecions i guess how many people have left caucus and and are we talking about some you mentioned in the spring session they were like a really competent opposition who really held the government to account and really kind of battered the NDP. Did some of those people leave caucus. Yeah they did actually they lost some fairly impressive effective critics so all in the conservatives won 44 seats in 2024 so just a little under two years they're down to the high twenties now so they've lost like 14 15 members some of those people left under rest that are we're kicked out so not all of them. Happened under finley but there's nine now left under finley and five of them have banded together they're seeking approval of a new party name from elections bc and they say we'll have that name and they'll be in the legislature when it sits up to the fifth so that's what's going on out there.

20:59Some of their most effective members a woman named alia warbuss who was the house leader brand new mla did a terrific job as house leader for the conservatives. She was pushed aside into a nothing job and she's quit peter miller bar now he was a leadership candidate but he was also their finance critic very effective he's he quit he's now. She's now expected to be the leader of this new party and you could run through the rest of them some of their most effective members have quit and just said they just don't have any confidence in finley and fact they said she's on electable well we'll see how on electable she is in the by election in two weeks because she's probably going to win now but whether or not she can win a general election with these kind of divisions is another matter and look there's a lot of rampant. speculation out here that e b who has a very thin majority himself in the legislature one seat at the moment is looking for an opposition an opportunity a window to call a snap election he was asked the other day.

22:16What are the odds of you calling a snap election he said that's a fun question now fun is not a word that one associates with governing these days especially when you have as many failings is the ndp but you can't really blame the premier for going to one seat majority in this house if i can take advantage of these people and win another majority in it with a bigger one. He's probably going to take it so we think there's a chance election later this year or more likely early next year. So for her part what has Carrie Lynn Finley said about the defectors or above the state of her leadership or even the state of her party in the wake of this mess. She's deeply in denial that any of this means anything really bad I mean she's wished the people that left well but she's suggested that you know and some of her supporters have suggested kind of good riddance and they're not loyal and they're not giving her a chance.

23:18She's you know she's pretty tough right she's not a pushover by any means and she's stuck to her guns and to her position she says that she's going to win the by election and she's going to go on and win the next provincial election and look given how close it was last time it's not out of the question is there a sense that. I mean among those who've left I guess that. If enough people left not that Finley would leave but in the event of a snap election it actually could actually cause the NDP to win a bigger majority as you say the eb may want to take advantage of this is there worry I suppose that. Their internal squabbles could actually do more harm to the province in their minds because another four years of an NDP majority isn't what they want. No that that's all true there was a meeting this past week eight of the nine departures met with us you know some back room types and one of them said you you people don't have much time to get your act together right the premier could call an election.

24:30As later this month or in October. You could be into an election very quickly you need to get your act together very quickly and those all yeah we're working on it right but no I mean. There isn't a lot of time to deal with this situation and there isn't a lot of unity yet there's five people five of the nine who left. Are going to form a political party and they told us they're getting a name and they'll be in the house when it sits in a total. The others well going to wait and see and then some of these other loose fish that have been out there independence for a while they're they're looking at it too so. And and this week this week. Last if you will a group of former people associated with the old BC United BC Liberal Party they threatened legal action to get the rights to that name back so they can start a political party called.

25:31BC Liberal United or whatever the hell so they succeed we'll have a party called center BC we'll have the unnamed party but name to be named later we'll have the conservatives we'll have a party called itself one BC which has one member in the legislature and then who knows we may have a party calling itself BC United and. BC Liberal or God knows what and this is why David EB as I say it's got to be one of luckiest politicians all right well you know it does sound like a bit of a mess and we'll see how things shape up once the legislature returns in BC on October 5th Vaughn it's been a pleasure talking to you more to come exactly thanks very much for your time okay bye bye. I'm Dave Breakenridge thanks for listening.