Back to Back Barries: Does Matt Canavan have a strategy to take on One Nation?

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This is the Guardian.

I'm Barry Cassidy and I'm Tony Barry. Welcome to Back to Back Barry from Guardian Australia.

Well, it took just two weeks. We are now involved in the war in Iran.

In a defensive role, almost a technical role the government insists defending our assets in the Middle East.

But is it the thin edge of the wedge? We'll get to that.

But at home, Matt Canavan has taken over from David Little Proud.

And he now heads up a national party. Matt Canavan has always been a big presence in the party.

And when you ask the question, is he the right person to take on one nation?

You first of all, I think, have to determine what your aim is, what the tax is, what the strategy are.

If your aim is to be more like one nation, to meet them so that people make a judgment.

Well, there's no real difference. We might as well stick with what we know.

Or is the strategy to argue that one nation is a menace, so they have no real solutions,

and build a quite a distinctive difference from them.

So first of all, Tony, the strategy. What do you think they're trying to achieve?

And is he the right person to achieve it?

First of all, I think it's pretty clear that David Little Proud jumped before he was pushed.

He'd be aware that national polling in the City of Farrah is diabolical, probably in single digits.

And of course, that's Tim Fischer's seat. Now, that was a very long time ago.

Tim was last elected in 1998, finished in 2001.

So basically, anyone under the age of 46 has never seen Tim Fischer's name on the ballot paper.

But it's an iconic seat. He'll buy two leaders, Susan Lee and Tim Fischer.

So I think David Little Proud realised that if he doesn't have the numbers right now,

he definitely would have had the numbers after that by election results.

So in steps, Matt Canavan, and I think the most interesting thing there is,

are we going to see Matt Canavan, the back venture or Matt Canavan, the leader?

If it's Matt Canavan, the back venture, he'll effectively become the leader of the coalition.

He'll dictate policy and effectively hold the little party to ransom,

which he did very effectively from the back bench, incredibly effectively.

He's a very smart fellow, Canavan. He actually has no regional credentials.

He grew up in Jim Charmer's seat and studied economics and went to the productivity commission.

So he's got a very interesting background, but no regional credibility to speak of.

But of course, being leader, as you know, Barry, you've worked for one.

Managing your back bench, managing relationships with coalition partners,

managing relationships with donors and supporters and media,

is a very different scenario, and that's going to be a real test of him.

I think he's got the capacity to do it, but it depends on what audience he wants to play to.

Does he want to play to their base? Or does he want to expand their map?

And when you see part of his responsibility is to manage his relationship with the Liberal Party,

and that's the part that they never seem to put a whole lot of time and effort into.

They just don't seem to care very much.

I can understand how Matt Canavan could not necessarily save seats in Queensland,

but limit the losses in Queensland.

But I think it's all bad news for the Liberal Party because he's a friend of fossil fuels.

He has this view that should extend the life of fossil fuels while they still exist.

I just can't see how he can make a difference in terms of helping the Liberal Party

where they need to win back their seats, and he might not even care about that.

Yeah, it's got to be a question of how much of the one nation vote can he win back,

versus what is he going to lose in those urban seats on behalf of the coalition?

He is very clever and articulate, and I think he's more persuasive than Barnaby.

I've always thought Barnaby was a little bit overrated.

He's great with the clever phrase and the media have always enjoyed that because he's good content,

but I don't think he's ever persuaded to people.

He's been catastrophic for a long time, including the regions where,

last time we tested it was net minus two.

Well, that's basically his base in the metros, of course, he's like net minus 20-something.

Canavan, though, whilst he performs very well on sky news,

the question now is, is he a bit of a flat track bully?

I mean, being handed a few half volleys by Andrew Bolt is not quite the same

as going out and facing the press pack in Canberra.

I think he's got a capacity to it, but does he have the want?

Does he understand that without the cities, the national party can't be in government

and therefore everything he says is merely theoretical?

I think there is a broader play going on.

It's been going on for a very long time and the merger of the LNP and Queensland,

which was a very long time ago, but I think that was the start of the process

to basically have emerged entity federally, which pivots to the right.

I think it's a project that not just Canavan and Barnaby Joyce,

but I think it extends to people like Tony Abbott and others who have this vision.

Abbott's got a reform network I noticed online starting up,

calling on Liberal Party members to reclaim the party.

So, I suspect they just want to destroy blow up the Liberal Party as it exists

and remake it in their own image.

Barnaby Joyce went on sky within quarter of an hour,

some of the new leader being announced.

And he knows Matt Canavan pretty well.

He employed him for a while.

And he said that Canavan's policy position is a million miles from those of the Liberal Party

and a million miles from those of his deputy.

I would add to that that until he was made leader,

he was one dummies bit away from joining one nation himself.

Look, this is a huge policy divide that Barnaby Joyce identified.

He may have done that for political purposes,

but there's a lot of evidence to suggest that he's right on that school.

Yeah, and I saw Laura Jays, who's an excellent journalist.

She has a nose for a good opportunity and she had Barnaby on the other day

and she tried to convince him to do a weekly segment,

him versus Canavan, on panel, which would be, you know,

you pay good money for that.

I think the other interesting thing that I noticed,

though, was Paulian Hansen herself came out and went after Canavan.

I don't know whether that means that she sees that Canavan could tap into that,

some of that vote that they've gained and bring it back.

But it was unmistakable.

It might have been because he had a go at her right from the top.

Yeah, and people were waiting to see what approach

she's going to take and call into one nation.

He just basically said they're pointless.

Yeah, I think it's going to be a fascinating contest to watch

and see what happens there.

But, you know, those internal relationships will be very interesting.

And Darren Chester is the deputy, the one who Barnaby said

there's a million miles from Matt Canavan in Nikki's service book,

earthquake.

Somebody, I think, a second hand.

But quite a Darren Chester is saying that he was like the Japanese soldier

who'd been in the jungle and only emerged years after the war.

Yeah. Chester is very good.

He's a very impressive fellow, very progressive.

Yep.

I think he was one of the first ones to come out on same-sex marriage

party, which was brave, but principles.

So, I'm actually a little bit surprised that he's made the rise

to deputy leader.

That's going to be interesting again to see how that plays out.

It may be that they know that Darren Chester can be more effective

in terms of winning national party votes in Victoria

and parts of New South Wales.

But you can't be too cute on that.

You really can't have Matt Canavan saying one thing in Queensland

and Darren Chester saying something all together different

in Victoria in this age of communication that we caught out pretty quickly.

Yeah.

And I mean, this is part of the Coalition's broader problem

is you've got some high-profile MPs going on the sky

and other forums and calling for spending cuts

and the government spending too much and they go on Facebook

and they say the government needs to fund this project

in my electorate.

So, you know, it's that lack of a coherent narrative

that I think is part of the Coalition's broader problem.

And I think before they keep on swapping leaders all the time

and it's coming like a white swan event

changing leadership in the Coalition,

they just need to sit down first of all

and get back to their basic values

and a few guiding principles for economic reform

to give voters hope, especially those younger cohorts

where they've disconnected from.

And rather than sort of just playing this tactical game

of I think this sort of question time was a really good performance

and we're going to win back some of this vote.

Yeah.

It's engine, you mentioned Farron,

you don't really give the nation as much of a chance here

and I wouldn't give the Liberals a huge chance

like the latest poll that I saw in this had one nation,

candidate of 29, primary vote, Michelle Milford,

the independent on 25.

The thing that I think slightly overlooked here though

is that they asked the question about their ALP as well

and they probably won't stand.

So, there's 9% available in primary vote to one of those two

I'd imagine Milford would get the line share of that.

So, it could be based on that poll

that Milford would go into the end of the violation

in front of primary votes

and she would have a very good chance

wouldn't she of getting the preference for that?

Yeah, seats like Farron are very, very hard to poll

because they're so expansive.

And so, to get a properly weighted sample

with townships of, you know, a few hundred voters

to weight it properly is very, very difficult.

That said, I think everything is against the coalition there.

Susan Lee's primary vote was 43% last time.

She didn't win a single booth in Aubrey,

which is the major voting center there.

Milford starts with 20% effectively

from the last election.

So, that's a great head start.

If she can get to mid-30s,

then she's absolutely in with the chance of winning.

I mean, I put my money on her at the moment,

but it just seems like, you know,

the stars are aligning for one nation.

I think the fuel shortage,

which of course will really impact seats like Farron.

And it's already impacting Farron.

There's a lot of balsas already closed,

which I've seen reported in the media.

But that is just a gift to one nation, I think,

because it goes to those self-sufficiency messages.

And that is a theme ever since COVID.

But they go to seriously blame the Australian government

for a shortage of fuel during a war and a run.

Yeah, but I think it taps into that grievance.

And that theme of self-sufficiency

and supply chains has been there since COVID,

where people are like, oh, what do you mean?

We don't have these medical supplies.

We've got to import them from China,

which is, you know, we'll shut down at the moment.

And hasty has been trying to tap into that a bit.

And don't underestimate how powerful that is the moment

for a lot of Australians.

That sense of self-sufficiency.

Now, there is overwhelming economic arguments

as to why Australia can't store most of this fuel.

And I've noticed Abbott has been very quiet lately

because, of course, the final two refineries

closed under his government.

It wasn't because of him.

It was a 25-year process,

where it was uneconomical to maintain them,

especially with environmental regulations,

but the cost of it.

And so consequently, we only have about 30 days reserved.

But when you're the government,

it's your problem to deal with.

And what Australian voters really hate right now,

which is why they're running to minor parties,

is this hatred of the two-party system

where they blame one another

or sort of try and make excuses.

Because, of course, Abbott,

Albanese came out and Bowen said,

there's no problem.

And 24 hours later, they said,

okay, we're fixing the problem,

which was a mixed message.

It's a response, which is good.

But it's not ideal for an incumbent government

who probably aren't going to run in that seat.

But to tap into that sense of grievance and frustration

with both major parties,

I think it's fodder.

There's South Australian election, of course,

so just over a week away now.

And you just get the feeling

that if they work up the Liberal Party work up

on the Sunday morning to the headline

that the Liberals still have a pulse,

they'd probably take it.

They must be phasing this with genuine trepidation.

I think when we first started this podcast,

we were talking about how it was going to be an extension

level event in South Australia.

The Liberal Party's got massive structural problems

over there.

Alexander and the right have effectively

hollered out the party, including professionally.

And Peter Malinuskas is a political athlete.

I mean, he is the real deal,

as far as a political performer goes.

He's not without an issue at the moment, though.

Yeah.

And I think this is a classic summary

of where we're at in Australian politics right now.

He won four years ago on ramping and hospital beds.

And as you know, Barry,

if you start a campaign on day one,

talking about an issue,

and in this case, Malinuskas, it was ramping,

and you've finished 33 days later,

still talking about the same issue,

then you're probably going to win

through just rich and repetition.

And that is his one vulnerability,

allegedly, is that was his single reason

for vote considerations.

However, ramping on all the statistics

has been getting worse under his watch,

and a story blew up hugely in Adelaide a week and a half ago,

where the health minister in response to

the very sad passing of a fellow called Stephen King,

subsequently released to the media,

emails sent to the Premier's office

from a fellow also called Stephen King,

but it was a case of mistaken identity.

So putting aside the complete arraigessness

of a breach of privacy,

and treating it like a PR problem,

instead of a policy problem,

picked it into his credit,

came out very quickly,

and apologized, and said it was a mistake.

But at a time when they should have

the Labor government on the rack on this issue,

it is the one thing that Malinuskas

does not want to be talking about

with a week and a half to go.

Instead, the little party

talking about themselves again,

because they have had a candidate

running in the seat of right,

which is not a winnable seat,

he works in headquarters,

he's a paid campaign professional,

and perhaps not unquincidentally,

as the time this picked and story broke,

comments that he made on an American podcast,

a evangelical podcast have come out,

where he said in part that he actually witnessed

a witch melt in church, right?

Yeah, that was probably the least concern,

but he said,

yeah, the rest was horrible.

It was the feminism and homosexuality is demonic.

The fact that a paid campaign professional,

when he nominated for the seat,

which is to run the flag,

there's no expectation of winning,

but for a paid professional to go,

hang on a sec guys,

there's probably a few things I've said that,

you know,

might be considered controversial,

so perhaps I should nominate.

Maybe it didn't occur to him,

that it was controversial.

Yeah, I suspect that's probably the case.

You know, the problem though

is when a party starts to disintegrate,

they're not only have trouble getting the right candidates,

really good candidates to contest winnable seats,

this kind of thing goes on in the seats they can't win,

because you want to fill the whole table, don't you?

You want to candidate in every seat,

so you've got to find somebody who's prepared to run and lose,

and that's when people like this emerge.

Yeah, especially about that.

Especially about that now,

because public funding is now so huge,

it's a major part of the political apparatus,

so the problem for the South Australian Liberals

is that private donations are now basically eliminated,

and they will get funding based on their primary vote,

which will be catastrophic.

And so that means that is effectively funding

for the next campaign.

So instead of being 40% primary vote,

or 35, or something like that,

it could potentially be around 15%.

We'll move on now to the war,

and it's the government right from the start has been cautious,

I suppose, careful in its positioning.

Maybe too careful in the sense that it could have nuanced.

It's an original support for the conflict,

because others managed to do that Canada, in particular,

I think by saying that we can understand why this is happening,

but we don't think its legal Australia went all in.

But they are saying it's defensive,

it's technical in terms of the involvement.

When you talk thin edge of the wedge thing,

I can recall when advisers first Australian advisers went into Vietnam,

and even then there was a sense of foreboding,

a sense of inevitability, advisers on the ground.

It won't be long before there are forces involved as well.

I don't really get that sense this time.

I think there's a separate consideration.

There's a thought going around that why is Australia doing this,

or why are they defending the UAE?

There are 24,000 Australians living and working in the UAE,

so we not only have defence assets to protect,

but we have a lot of Australians living there.

It's booming economies.

Australia is the beneficiary of that,

either through expats working over there,

but also great trade partners on many levels.

This is an entirely disruptive campaign so far,

and you just get the sense that Trump is just making it up as he goes.

The messaging is all over the shop.

It's not a war.

It's a mission.

Hegs have then sort of declared it.

I think he said to the press conference saying,

you know, they started this war,

which is not entirely obvious to me,

but it's also, you know,

goes to that sort of complete chaos and confusion,

which Trump thrives on.

You know, that's his sweet spot is chaos and confusion.

But we still go back to that problem of, you know,

one of his major pitches to the electorate

was that he was the only president since Jimmy Carter,

I think, who hadn't started a war.

Somebody pointed out the other day,

that if you were writing war and peace from the beginning now,

the title military involvement in peace

wouldn't really have the same ring about it, would it?

But he will give you a deadline on the war,

a censor that's ending just to manipulate the markets.

Now, how long can you keep doing that before people,

the markets don't even respond to it?

I want to raise one thing that Penny Wong said,

though, in terms of Australia,

defending its position on the war,

and she said this week that it's for the United States

and Israel to explain the legal basis

of both the conflict and the actions they take.

It's for them.

I just think from the outset,

when they took their position,

surely they made assumptions of their own.

They made assumptions about the legality of the actions

and how it would be defensible over time.

I don't think you can just dismiss it by saying,

you know, we were in, but the US and Israel

can explain their actions.

It's, I'm not sure that's got much of a lifespan either.

And on oil, of course,

that's, this is going to be week.

We talked about that earlier anyway,

in respect to the Farabia election,

what one nation might do with the issue.

But the two things the government can do

is keep an eagle eye on price-carging for a start.

That's something they should be doing better than that.

They just have to do everything they possibly can

to release reserves and try and keep the field flowing.

With this war doesn't end,

mission, sorry.

And the next week,

then you're going to start seeing catastrophic implications

for the global economy.

I do want to talk about a couple of things.

People want Dennis Richardson bailing out

of the Royal Commission.

Did we have Decemitism?

And just to work on the final judgment on Robo debt,

that will take a break.

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Right, we're back in just a program note that back-to-back barries.

That's us.

We'll be conducting a live event at this year's Sydney Riders Festival.

It'll be a breakfast recording of the program.

It'll be on Thursday, May 21.

So you can go to the Sydney Riders Festival website for bookings.

We've got an email this week from Philip Orgel,

who starts out by saying that he enjoys the program.

And he thinks we're two very articulating and form presenters.

Tony and that he likes the fact that you update polling stats.

It's a magic combo.

I don't know why we chose to use email,

but here's the point.

He says that he and his wife have had 17 years in the Middle East.

And that's what we're going to do.

We're going to do a live event.

We're going to do a live event.

We're going to do a live event.

We're going to do a live event.

We're going to do a live event.

We're going to do a live event.

We're going to do a live event.

We're going to do a live event.

We're going to do a live event.

We're going to do a live event.

We're going to do a live event.

We'reāng to the extent that his family is in the Middle East.

And he has friends in the UAE and in Tehran.

And he's also a byma and he agrees with last week's

comments on the United States interventions

Over the years in international conflicts.

And I'd like the coming from him,

From someone who's lived in the region.

That he sees parallels with this particular experience.

And it's the background of this needs to be kind of pointed out that he was appointed

to hit up a review specifically into the intelligence and services and whether they might have

made errors and they run up to the terrorism attack at Bondi.

He was appointed at a time when the government was still resisting a Royal Commission.

And then the Royal Commission was established and the idea was to fold Dennis Richards and

into that.

What happened from then on was a failure in process, undoubtedly a failure in process

so that it either didn't occur to them or they didn't think they needed to deal with

the fact that there were questions around that.

What if Dennis Richards and makes his own finding in his own recommendations?

By April, that was his deadline.

What happens to those?

Will they stand the test of time?

Will they be released at the interim report?

Well, they apparently had these internal discussions and the Royal Commission had decided

that there wouldn't be recommendations and findings in the interim report.

You can understand why that would have frustrated him because as he said, he was now surplus

to a requirements that he felt like a researcher and you know, those findings now, he obviously

felt there was a sense of urgency about them and now there's even a question as to whether

they would survive the whole legal process that is to come with the Royal Commission and

seven or eight months from now they could disappear.

So you can understand his frustrations around that.

It was all pully handled and that's it.

Yeah.

Porsacale broke that story this week about the Royal Commission resisting Virginia Bell

resisting his recommendations at this point.

Dennis Richards and I think it's worth noting is one of the more respected and celebrated

public servants in Australia by both sides.

In fact, Kevin Rudder points at him is the head of DFAT when he was prime minister and

as we know, that is Kevin Rudder's passion project is foreign affairs.

So that's not something he would have done without weeks of thought.

But he's held an incredibly high regard and I think that's one of the reasons why

Albanese appointed him straight away because he thought this is somebody who, both sides,

respect enormously and won't be causing any sort of conflict in the media about his

appointment.

So it was a huge move for him to resign.

I think he did it as neatly as possible and as professionally as he possibly could.

But the briefing coming out to Porsacale was pretty telling.

Yeah, I think when you said how he handled it afterwards, it would have been a danger

that to walk away from something like this would be seen as a bit churlish.

But he went out there and did a lot of media.

He did a single day.

He stood up there and took all the questions and was quite frank.

Look, I have to declare an interest.

I work with Dennis Richards and one stage of socialized with Dennis Richards.

What I know of him is that when he gave a full-time work eight and nine years ago, he probably

didn't really know what lay ahead, but he's taken lots of responsibilities like this.

It's the sort of person that if the Prime Minister foams up and wants something done, he

would say, yes, you know, he'd feel the kind of a obligation to do it.

So it would have been a big step for him to step away as he did.

The Robo debt, I guess final finding the National Anti-Corruption Commission, they had six

people referred to it for examination.

One of them was Scott Morrison's, it turned out.

He was cleared.

Two public servants.

It was found were engaged and serious corrupt conduct, but I don't think there might be

any prosecution around that.

But I just want to say about that, that the government did pursue hundreds of thousands

of people.

In fact, figures are 470,000, that's almost half a million people were wrongly issued

with debt notices and were repainting for.

And another 200,000 were still under review, or they had that review waived.

And it just seems to me the language used around it at the time that it was a strike force

they were going to aggressively target fraud.

And when people received these notices, a lot of them had no idea of what it was, the

money, the money that was owed, they had no knowledge of it, a astonishment, they were

traumatised and they didn't know how to deal with it.

So it just seems to me in the end that no corruption on the part of any of the politicians

involved, but I think it's fair to say it was unforgivable and morally reprehensible.

It was driven by a massive indifference to those who were affected and impacted.

And also I think driven by an obsession to exploit the so-called welfare sheets issue,

we should never forget it.

But I think what concerns me the most about that report this week is that the likes of

Alan Tudge had his reputation shredded, and quite rightly so, on a number of different

issues he's had his reputation shredded.

But the two public servants referred to in that report where they said there was evidence

of corruption.

I mean, they should be hauled before courts.

Because there is a real question mark there, I think for listeners who don't know, these

departments receive all sorts of pictures from private companies with software ideas

that, you know, and RoboDept was obviously one of those ways to capture money that was

perceived to be wrongly paid.

And public servants make an assessment and then recommend it to the minister and the minister

and that they've had their reputation shredded.

But there's real question marks as to the role of the public servants in this.

And I'm very disappointed that the commission hasn't progressed that forward.

Yeah, the phoning wasn't that the public servants had been unfair, the allegation was that

they knew what they were doing was illegal and it went ahead anyway.

Well, that's it for this week, just a reminder that we will be at the Sydney Rottest Festival

on Thursday, May 21st.

You can look that one up.

This podcast was made on the sovereign lands of the Wurundjeri people.

It was produced by Carisma Bithria and Joe Coney and video production Burton The Wind.

The executive producer is Hannah Parks.

I'm Barry Cassidy and I'm Tony Barry and this is back-to-back Barry's regarding Australia

podcast.

Hi, everyone.

This is Karine, the voice of Simon Fairchild from the Magnus R-Guys.

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Ryzen and T-Mobile customers to 12 months on the Boost Mobile Unlimited plan.

For full offer details, visit BoostMobile.com.

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