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Really, really good sweet 16 lineup.
Four games tonight.
Four games tomorrow night.
Two of those four tomorrow night right here.
In DC at Capital One Arena, Duke will be in one of those games
against St. John's and then Michigan State Yukon in the night cap.
But man, there are good games.
I'll have my smell test picks later on in the hour.
The smell test at 14 and eight against the number
since the tournament began.
Joining us is one of my favorites to read.
Ben Fox does such a good job
as the senior sports betting analyst at Yahoo Sports.
You can follow Ben on X at B Fox 22.
Ben joins us right now.
Before we get to the sweet 16, I just noticed something
and I'm wondering if it's unique.
The Major League Baseball odds.
I've got a consensus number in front of me right now.
The World Series odds, the Dodgers are two to one plus two hundred
and next after the Dodgers are the Yankees at plus a thousand.
Has there ever been a season that started
with that prohibitive of a World Series favorite?
A two to one versus the next in line is 10 to one?
I think you're you're giving me assignments here, Kevin.
This is something I got to look into to
which is great.
I would guess that there probably has been
but not for a long time.
So just the Dodgers, I remember looking for an article last week.
I think that's their best world,
their shortest World Series odds since 1985 just for Ben as a team.
And then for any team, I think it's the shortest since the Yankees.
I want to say in 2003,
who are a little shorter to win the World Series.
And then some of those Yankees teams, I think in the late 90s,
had very good odds as well.
But it is very rare.
It's kind of reminiscent a little bit
to some of those Warriors teams, right, with KD and staff
where you kind of have this one team.
Even then, you had the Cavs, at least it's kind of a second team
that had deepened odds.
But this is just, yeah, they're in the plus two
hundred plus two 20 plus two 30 range.
And everyone else is kind of like you said,
10 to 11 to 11, 14 to 1.
And it kind of makes sense.
I mean, odds makers aren't going to give you a plus 500
if people are going to be betting.
I think at Bad MGM today,
they had 14 percent.
The Dodgers are the most best team to win the World Series
as you would expect with 14 percent of all majors.
They had over 32 percent of all of the money in the World Series
as well.
So the public obviously betting the Dodgers.
And so if they're going to bet them at plus two 20,
why would you give plus 300 plus 400 plus 500?
And they're just so,
they've won two World Series in a row
and they had so many pitching injuries last year
and they got better.
So that's the difficulty when you're thinking about it.
It seems like it's too short, right?
It's plus two hundred.
The season hasn't even started or is starting today.
But also, if you feel comfortable,
is going to beat them or even be in the World Series
potentially to face them.
You know, again, before we get to the sweet 16 while I have you on,
because I've been looking at a lot of the NFL over
under-numbers for next year and a lot of the odds.
First of all,
it's no surprise to me and I'm wondering if it's a surprise to you
that the Rams are the Super Bowl favorite right now
at somewhere between, you know,
called plus 650 and plus 750.
Somewhere six and a half to seven and a half to one.
I mean, I actually thought they were the best team
the league even in the postseason.
If they had had bad special teams instead of horrific special teams,
I think they'd be the Super Bowl champions right now.
But do you see it the same way?
Does that make sense to you that the Rams
are the preseason Super Bowl favorites?
Yeah, so it makes complete sense.
I mean, I think it's next year is so fascinating
for so many reasons.
Number one being that they're the first team
to play an Australia game, right?
And so the number one concern heading into last season
was they have an older quarterback who has a bad back, right?
And that was what I think through people off the scents
a bit for the Rams was just, okay, yes,
they're very talented, but Matthew Stafford,
is he going to get injured just during the course of the game?
Can't he play? Remember, he wasn't.
Well, this time last year, but not to interrupt this time last year.
We weren't even sure he was going to resign.
Right, right.
There was the, was it the New York Giants?
Was it, you know, I mean, some of that is posturing and leverage
and some of that is true.
But ultimately, very incredibly talented team,
odd makers had them essentially as the top power rated team,
most of the second half of the season.
And they kind of blew the game in week 16 against the Seahawks
by giving up that special teams.
Like you said, there were turns touched down
to Rashid Shaheed that kind of turned that game.
And then they didn't blow the NSC championship game,
but it's essentially a 50-50 game.
They go down, they don't score the touchdown on the fourth down,
and they end up losing the game.
But those teams are very, very, even.
Well, it felt like return two, that was a massive win.
Exactly, exactly.
So, look, those are the things that matter
in a championship game between two teams
that are very close to each other.
And we saw how good that Seahawks defense was.
So, I think the Rams, you figure they were very good.
Almost everyone's coming back.
They used one of those two first round picks
and were able to sign in a choir Trent McDuffie,
which obviously their secondary was kind of one of the few issues.
And now they have that number 13 pick as well from the Falcon.
So, they have another first round pick
that's at a premium in the NFL lottery, I guess, as it were.
And they can add whether they get Kenyans to Deek
and other tight end, whether they get offensive line,
whether they go secondary again.
I think they have the opportunity
to improve their team a lot.
So, it's not surprising that they're, again,
just slightly over the Seahawks,
but they're the Super Bowl favorites.
By the way, I may be asking something
that you don't have the answer to.
But do you know what?
Like, I'm looking for, you know,
the odds on Washington's selection at seven.
I'm going to guess that Tate and Love
and, you know, probably Bane or probably right there.
But do you have that in front of you or not?
I still have in front of me.
Okay, no worries.
I think it also depends on the books.
Some books put out the top five.
I think right now I see the top four or five.
I don't see seven yet.
Yeah, I see the top five too.
You know, again, I love having you on
because we can talk about a lot of different things.
One last one on football and then we'll get to the sweet 16.
So I've kind of been a little bit,
I mean, I may be hypersensitive to this
as a Washington fan and as a big Jaden Daniels fan.
But I think you'll understand where I'm coming from.
In years past, when let's just say Joe Burrow mysticism
and was coming back or Lamar Jackson missed a bunch of games
and was coming back or Dak Prescott, you know,
really good quarterbacks out for the previous year
for the most part.
And it's like there's this assumption that,
well, since in Addies, you know, if Joe Burrow's healthy
and plays 17 games, they're going to be much better
than they were last year.
And I don't feel like Washington's getting that benefit
of the doubt with Jaden Daniels
who played in just four complete football games last year.
Only played in seven total, four complete start to finish.
This time last year, a lot of rankings had him
as a top five quarterback in the league.
And yet, and I don't want to put him in the burrow,
Jackson Mahomes, Dak class in terms of the, you know,
the points that he had sort of earned and built up.
But I find it interesting that a lot of the numbers
and a lot of the pundits don't really consider
Washington as a bounce back opportunity.
And yet the reason they were five and 12
is he barely played last year?
Yeah, I think it's a great point.
And look, the NFL is such a year-to-year league, right?
I think part of it is just that quarterback class
and you had that big debate and all of a sudden now, right?
Caleb William had that moment in the playoffs.
Obviously, Drake May leads his team,
leads his generous with some of those playoff games,
but is around on the team as the quarterback,
as the Patriots go to the Super Bowl.
And so all of a sudden, not based, like you said,
completely on his play, though he didn't play as well.
Obviously, it's almost impossible to play as well as he did.
Well, he didn't play.
That's the problem.
He only played in four complete games.
Yeah.
And when he was out there,
nobody else who was out there with him.
Right.
So I think that was also an issue.
And I think just you look at the division
and some of the other teams as well getting,
and now you can argue where the Eagles haven't gotten better,
but potentially the giant's new head coach,
the Cowboys reinforcing some on defense.
So whether some of the other teams have gotten better as well.
And I think Washington is aging roster
and then a lot of questions on defense as well
that you would know through free agency and otherwise
and address whether those will be more solved.
But I think they're also,
those are some of the concerns with maybe an older team
that also got injured.
Obviously, Jayden Daniels just getting injured separately,
obviously a younger player.
But I think that's one of the potential concerns as well.
It's just okay.
How do they have they gotten better or worse compared
to some of the other teams and divisions?
Obviously, you would say healthy, Jayden Daniels.
They're probably not getting as big a bump as they should.
All right, we're talking to Ben Fox,
senior sports betting analyst at Yahoo Sports.
First of all, for those that haven't been paying attention
to sort of the numbers part of this, the gambling part of it,
let's just talk about the favorites in this tournament
through two rounds, not only straight up,
but against the number.
Yeah, I mean, it's kind of, I guess,
well, it could be a blessing for both.
I was going to say a blessing in court.
It's mostly a blessing for betters.
I think favorites I had at 28 and 20 against the spread.
And obviously, depending on a couple of numbers,
that can be plus one, minus one.
But basically, 28 and 20, and then we saw laps Friday,
something we hadn't seen since 1992.
And that was every single favorite
win their game in the first round, 16 and 0 on Friday.
And so in March Madness, it's funny because for the most part,
or I do think the public likes to bet favorites,
then they do, and they tend to stack some of those money lines
together.
But March Madness, they also like to bet the underdogs, right?
Yeah.
And underdog in a money line and high point in some of these others.
So it was something where I think sports books didn't do
as poorly, as if that was, let's say, an NFL Sunday
and 13 favorites, or something like that, all ended up
winning and covering.
But it also leads to some great matchups in the sweet 16.
It's kind of like the college football playoff, where we always
are rooting for that team to get in the Boise State,
or someone else.
And then the first round comes and they lose by 25.
And maybe there was some drama on the spread,
but the game isn't that interesting.
And so I think we still have, obviously, Iowa and some other teams
like that a little further down, Texas that are surprises.
But you got your St. John's and your Duke.
You got Arkansas, Arizona, Illinois, Houston,
like some really, really good games that you would expect to see,
maybe even later on the tournament.
What was the most surprising sweet 16 number
when you saw it for the first time on late Saturday night,
late Sunday night?
I think there was a little surprise that Duke was probably
that high, that they were six and a half, six and a half,
seven over St. John's, just because, and look,
St. John's can go minutes without scoring.
And sometimes it was like a final four team.
And sometimes you're not really sure what's going on with them.
But Duke just hasn't really looked the part kind of
of a number one team.
And obviously, potentially before the tournament,
maybe that line is eight math, right?
So it probably has come down from where it might have been before.
And obviously, St. John's boosted a bit,
won the Big E title and has moved on in the tournament.
Well, I was just interested in that in St. John's
while they beat Kansas, they were three and a half point
favorite, so they didn't actually cover that game.
So that was one that stood out.
And then I was a little surprised that Houston was that low
as well to open the two and a half point favorite,
asking odd makers, they gave about a one point bump
because that game's being played in Houston.
So essentially a home court advantage, they don't have to travel.
So just with those two, I was a little surprised that was that low.
And no surprise, the public is back in Houston,
but that's just such a great matchup again.
We have this great defense against this great offense in Illinois.
Yeah, those two surprised me a little bit.
The other one for me is I didn't think Arizona would open up
at eight and a half.
I thought that was a little bit high against an Arkansas team
that's really, really looked good.
I thought that was a number that I would
guess six, six and a half, something like that.
The ticket, Lady Jennifer of Coons.
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And the sharpest I've agreed with you
because that's open to eight and a half.
And there's been sharp action.
Eight and a half, and at eight, pushing that down
to seven and a half, public, slightly on Arizona.
But I think Arkansas, you start thinking a little bit
about, obviously, they have a coach who's been there.
And also, if you have various hiccups
and you just have potentially the best player left,
you could say, regardless of any player in the nation,
but certainly left in the tournament,
if he's a guy, again, as a point guard,
who can control the game, right?
Sometimes with big men, they have to get the ball.
They're not bringing it up, they're not controlling.
He can control the entire game, you know.
He's like a quarterback, right?
He's touching the ball every single play.
He might just be that good, and we might look back
and say, wow, how were they getting seven and a half points
if they go on to potentially beat Arizona,
who is very deep and a good team,
but just sometimes, again, leaves you wanting a little more, too.
Yeah, for sure.
All right, so of these sweet 16 games,
tell me the sides from what you've gathered
and you do a good job of this,
of where the books will have a need.
You know, who are the books going to be rooting for,
whether it's a side or a total in these, you know,
the next eight games?
So I think one of the games tonight,
certainly they will definitely be rooting for Texas.
So Texas to probably to cover, not necessarily to win,
although it does depend.
Certainly on the book that MGM has the biggest bet
that I've heard, which is a $100,000 bet on Purdue
to make the final four that was placed before the tournament
at six to one odds.
So that's a big landline, certainly,
that they would, you know, like to avoid.
Obviously sometimes sportsbooks will be happy
to take the short-term hit for the game
to avoid a longer-term hit with a big bet like that.
But the public produced the most bet side
at that MGM of all the games.
It's obviously, you know, one of the games today,
but 65% of the bet's 80% of the handle on Purdue
at that minus seven and a half.
So that Texas is certainly one that they'll be looking at.
And then I think depending,
I think the books will also be rooting for some of the unders.
There's been a lot of action on several of those,
several of those overs, so that's something to keep in mind.
But I think those are the biggest,
a lot of tonight as well, a probably rooting for Iowa.
Seems like Nebraska is the popular,
more popular choice, 70% of the bet, 75% of the handle.
So I think those are probably two,
that's probably also on Houston.
So as of right now, they'll be rooting for Illinois.
Illinois.
Those are kind of one.
And Illinois probably to win outright.
Is there a lot of exposure for Houston
to win this whole thing or not?
Yeah, there's definitely some.
There's a $50,000 bet at that MGM at, I think, nine to one
that was from before the tournament.
And they're definitely a team now that has started.
People have been on as well throughout the tournament,
just because now we look,
hey, if they get past Illinois,
instead of having Florida waiting there,
yeah, Iowa, or Nebraska,
or potentially down the line,
a dude's team that hasn't looked as good
as you might have thought before the tournament.
So that road has gotten a lot easier,
not to mention, obviously, they play their next,
potentially two games in Houston.
So that's another advantage that they have,
and they've experienced, right?
They've been there last year,
much like the Spurs, right?
That season they lost to the heat.
You're not necessarily saying Houston's on that same
kind of vengeance tour, but they were right there,
and some of those players know what that's
to obviously Calvin Samson knows what that feels like.
They have a very good team,
and I think they'll be right there.
They were my pick to win it all.
We'll see if that comes or fruition,
but they seem like, obviously, their path has gotten
a little easier if they can get by Illinois.
It was a very good team.
Was there a first two round result
that really hurt the books more than any other,
and one that really helped them more than any other?
I would say, I mean, one that certainly helped
was Sienna, I mean, both Sienna and Howard,
the 16-feeds covering, I guess the one seed,
because that's always gonna help.
I think that a decent amount of people
were on high point to beat Wisconsin,
so I think that was one, and that had been pushed down.
I wanna say that opened around Wisconsin 12, 12 and a half,
and got down to like nine, nine or 10.
So there were people betting high point to cover,
and then betting on them as well.
Thanks to those were a couple.
I'm just looking over the bracket quickly.
I don't know, it feels like so long since those.
Some of the big favorites.
Yeah, go ahead, sorry.
Right, yeah.
I was gonna say some of the big favorites like Alabama,
looked like there was a lot of Hofstra action
because of the injury, I'm sorry,
because of the suspension of the player.
That one, you know, in the first two,
in the first round that came was on Friday, I think.
That had to be a good result, right?
Yeah, and I think some of the favorites as well,
it's rare, right?
Usually you see bigger spread.
The sharps taking some of that, you know,
taking the underdog and pushing it down,
and some of these like an Iowa State Tennessee
or Houston, Idaho, even Yukon, I know a good Vagga.
That was pushed up as well.
And so some of those scenes like a Houston
who covered in that first round,
that wasn't as good for the books,
because there was a lot,
there's always gonna be public money on the favorites,
and then obviously those money line parlates as well,
but even just the spread, those were some Illinois as well.
That was pushed up, what were they?
24, 25 point favorite over Penn and Cupboards.
So those were a couple where when you have those favorites,
not only winning, but covering,
and then a bunch of them in a row that can add up.
All right, I got two more for you.
One basketball and then one back to football.
So we have, you know, a home court situation,
a home city situation with Houston,
playing Illinois tonight and then potentially
an elite eight game against Purdue on Saturday.
And then the final four is an Indianapolis
if Purdue advanced that they'd certainly have some benefit.
But my question to you is from an odd standpoint,
because of the corporate nature,
when we get to this point in the tournament,
the kind of crowds that show up for these regionals,
and then of course for the final four,
what kind of benefit is given to Houston point spread wise,
or would be to Purdue in the final four as a home venue?
I mean, the Nebraska situation was legitimate,
you know, against Vandy, like that was a great
Nebraska crowd in Oklahoma City.
But how do they view that, especially when we get to this stage,
where it tends to be at least in the best seats,
a lot of high priced, you know, corporate kind of crowds.
Yeah, I mean, I would say so the best seats, obviously,
you know, even if people are priced out,
ultimately it's gonna be who's the loudest
and how many fans there are, right?
So we saw that with Nebraska.
I mean, that was a, you know, a red sea.
That was awesome to watch.
I mean, there are fans running for everything.
Yeah, yeah, so I think for that,
I mean, he talked to the odds maker,
he had given it about a point for that difference
between Illinois and Houston.
He would have opened that up,
maybe Houston minus one and a half,
and so the minus two and a half,
if it was at a true kind of neutral court.
And I think it's also just important to remember,
like we sometimes forget, these are still college kids.
And, you know, this is momentum is real,
and all of a sudden, if it's kind of in a way game,
the team's going on a run,
and now the crowd is into it as well,
that definitely has an impact.
So I think that we'll see that.
I think it'll be a little less potentially,
but it would probably be about the same for Purdue,
maybe half a point, a point, if they get that far,
and also to your point,
I think the further you go,
the potentially, you know, fewer seats available
for, you quote, unquote, true fans, right,
versus corporate, like we see in the Super Bowl.
So it's not necessarily a, you know,
conference championship game versus Super Bowl,
but I do think in those regionals,
you're going to have a lot more fans versus the final four,
and the championship game,
you're probably going to have, you know,
a little more of a, that, not necessarily a neutral court,
but not as big a home court advantage,
with as many fans there.
All right, let's just look, look ahead to the draft,
real quickly, and I just want to ask you,
like do you have a gut feel on what Washington will do
at seven, not from a gambling standpoint,
but you're, you know, you're a fan of this thing,
what do you think they'll do at seven,
because that's been a big discussion point
of who might be available and what they may do.
Yeah, man.
It's okay to know.
No, I'm just excited the draft is so close.
Yeah.
I think it really just, one,
it depends on how much you value Jeremiah Love, right?
I think he is kind of the inflection point
for a lot of that top five.
If you assume, as, you know,
we do in the betting markets do that Fernando Mendoza
is going number one,
and then the Jeffs probably are taking defense
in some capacity, whether that's David Bailey,
or our bell reads from Ohio State at two,
and the Cardinals are probably offensive line
or defense.
I think Tennessee is that, is Jeremiah Love?
Does he go there?
I've seen Caleb Downs high.
I've seen Monroe Freeling, you know, to the Browns.
I know Mel, type or has sunny styles.
It's always tough to take, I think, a linebacker at seven,
but ultimately, I think it's going to be how much do you,
are you really trying to bolster that offense, right?
And have a let's say Jeremiah Love, a carnal tape,
or if it's, hey, there's a defense piece here,
whether that's Ruben Bay and sunny styles,
or, you know, Caleb Downs,
who everyone agrees is an unbelievable football player,
just again, a safety, which has kind of less value
in the top ten, and it's very rare to see that.
So ultimately, it's just going to be,
do they want to, if you really value Jeremiah Love that much,
now let's see, they have some questions that running back,
you can just imagine defenses trying to prepare
for a read option with Jeremiah Love and Jen Daniels.
So that to me is, like, makes a lot of sense.
I feel like that was the hot pick in mock draft,
and it's kind of gone away from that a bit,
as, you know, people have mocked Jeremiah Love
as high as four to the Titans, maybe five to the Giants,
but to me, that would still make a lot of sense,
just there's certain players that are that good,
and could make that big of an impact,
if you just look at it, who's going to make the biggest impact
for your team next year?
I think it'd be hard to argue with Jeremiah Love.
Right, I actually lied.
I just wanted to ask you real quickly.
Other than football is March Madness the most bet on thing
in the US?
Yeah, so just for comparison, I think the AGA,
American Gaming Association estimated men fanwomen,
there was over $3 billion for March Madness,
and the Super Bowl was estimated, I want to say,
like, 1.6, 1.7.
So obviously a lot more games with March Madness.
Yeah, right.
Women's tournament too, and it's over a longer period of time,
but yeah, there's certainly plenty of money,
wager, and that's not even putting in all the office pools
and everything else that's out there.
All right, enjoy the rest of March.
Thanks for doing this.
Hope you're well.
Thanks, Ben.
Anytime.
Ben Fox, everybody at B Fox 22 on X.
He is the senior sports betting analyst at Yahoo Sports.
I'll have my Smeltest Suite 16 picks at about 12.45.
Coming up next, do you want to go back to something
about the draft that I don't think everybody knows?
That's next.
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Come on, baby.
Get with the times.
Right, so we shouldn't get the parachute pants.
These are making a comeback.
I think.
Discover is accepted at 99% of places
that take credit cards nationwide,
based on the February 2025 Nilsen report.
Did you know that you can buy your car completely online
on auto trader?
Really?
Just visit autotrader.com, filter and search
through dealer listings for the car you want,
make, model, color, and all the features that matter to you.
Go ahead, get picky.
Whether you're into subcompacts with heated cup holders,
crossovers with all-wheel drive,
pickups with kicking sound systems,
or SUVs that can survive whatever chaos your kids unleash.
Just drop in your info and you'll only
see cars in your budget.
Really, once you find your one and only,
you can do the whole deal online
and have the car delivered to your driveway.
Or you can pick it up at the dealership
and drive your new ride right off the lot.
Really, autotrader makes it easy to buy your car online
because the whole process is designed around your wants
and must-haves.
Autotrader, buy your car online.
Really.
This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance.
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Get more out of every mile when you share the ride to work.
With carpooling, you'll have time to relax,
save money and pick up new friends.
Commuter connections can help you find carpool partners
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Even if you're commuting just a few days a week,
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Carpooling, every dollar saved, every friend made.
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This is attorney Amida Zari from Zari Law.
If you've been injured in an accident
and feel like no one is fighting for you,
it's time to fight back.
Paul Zari Law at 888-828-Hurt.
That's what one call you can put a proven legal team
on your side.
Zari Law has been serving the DMV for over 15 years,
proudly fighting for our local community.
I was born and raised right here in the DMV,
and my team is made up of experienced,
reputable local attorneys dedicated to fighting
for injury victims just like you.
Follow us on all social platforms at zari.law.
That's a-z-a-r-i-dot-l-a-w.
Don't wait, don't settle.
Fight back with Zari Law.
The office is in Maryland, DC, and Virginia.
My team and I are ready to stand up for you.
Call 888-828-Hurt.
That's 888-828-HURT.
And let us fight back for you.

The Kevin Sheehan Show

The Kevin Sheehan Show

The Kevin Sheehan Show