BEST BETS: 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks, Odds, One & Done | The Early Wedge

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Welcome to the year of the Tuesday 5th Show. I'm your host, Eric Cohen.

You know, some of you who enjoy the no-bet list is hidden at 375.

Jeffus was baseball. I'd probably be leading the league and hitting eight tournaments or eight

weeks of tournaments. Three players on the no-bet list have hit. I'm sure the guys will give me

some grief later in the show. But let's bring them in because these guys are on fire.

We have the great C in the shot. Host of the early edge.

One of the great golf handicapers on the planet.

And this guy, one of the great golf, I don't know, writers, commentators, and two weeks in a row.

Jason Sobel, you have been on fire. We'll get to that in a second.

Patrick McDonald is hanging with the big wigs at TPC Sawgrass.

So he is not going to be with us tonight. But he did send me some insights to read on the show.

And we have some picks from him. So we will get to that.

But let's highlight what happened last weekend.

And Sobel, you and Cia, a few weeks ago, hit Austin Smotherman in FRL at over 100 to one.

And last week in Puerto Rico, Ricky Castillo at over 20 to one, 22 and a half to one.

We went five, one and one on tournament matchups.

I got that gotter up top 10 round one. It was a split.

Didn't include ties. So I got a little bit of that and plus 415.

But nonetheless, Sobel, I'm going to start with you.

You are on a heater. How confident?

Like everything's going through the bucket right now.

How confident are you feeling?

Ecy, this is why I have always said they should play every single PGA tour event in Puerto Rico.

Last week, I think you know, last year at Ricky Castillo, two years in a row.

Now, I don't know what it is about Puerto Rico,

but I'm just finding some long shots in an alternate field event.

It's pretty fun. And yeah, look at the whole crew out there doing some good work.

So I guess Lister's viewers stay tuned because we're on a roll right now and try to keep it going.

See, you are really on a roll. And one thing that's awesome that you do is you give out picks

for those who don't know on your ex profile.

And I'm in the sports line discord and you are absolutely crushing it right now.

What'd you go with? Something like was like five and one last week, something like that?

Oh, I didn't have a loss in the matchup department. It was five, oh, and one.

So I had a tie. Yeah.

I had a tie. Thanks to Matt Fitzpatrick.

So for those of you that just watched this show and for some reason don't watch the early,

it's just know that my round matchups are usually on the early edge,

sometimes in the sports line discord as well.

So yeah, while it's probably not reflected as much in terms of the early wedge recap,

early edge as a as a whole sports line discord was a really great week for me last week as well.

But I mean, shout out to Jason because that's two Puerto Rico's in a row.

I had some guys in the mix on Sunday at ADDC and Maddie Schmidt,

but I mean, it was really Ricky Castillo that ended up closing in a big way.

Yeah, I had, I mean, it was tough. Give out, you know,

Akshay Batia, some guy on the sports line discord.

Not real happy with me for fading.

Akshay Batia.

Stepstruck gave me a cheap thrill at the Arnold Palmer.

We'll talk about him a little bit later in the show.

But let's get to storylines.

And so, but we'll start with you.

It's kind of, this one's kind of a tough tournament to predict.

First of all, I want to ask you like,

is it, wasn't there a split that I used last year that didn't happen like

AMPM or PM AM? Do you know that off hand?

Because I think I gave it out to you what you got wrong last year.

I wasn't there much in the one that keeps track of all your ones.

You get wrong. I don't know. There's too many.

If anybody in the chat knows, I think there was like if you start,

if you go AMPM, you won like 15 of the last 16 players, I don't remember what it is.

If somebody remembers that, I think it was, it was PMAM.

But you also have to keep in mind who, who those winners actually were.

And they, you know, in a lot of cases, they're like the best golfer in the world.

You know what I mean? That's fair.

Now, Sobel, you think that recent form matters potentially over course form?

Yeah. In recent form, I think matters here more than it does most weeks.

Look, form always matters. You want to take guys who are playing well,

over guys who aren't playing well. We all get that.

That said, on this golf course, where I've said for the last two decades,

I first started going on a players championship back in 2005.

And I've been to probably 17, 18 of them, not going to be there this week,

but that's fine because I've been there enough.

All of that said is that we've seen superstars and long shots.

We've seen veterans and rookies.

We've seen long hitters, great iron players, great putters.

There's lots of different ways to get it done.

It's what makes TBC sawgrass such a good golf course.

As so many have said, it's a meritocracy.

Essentially, there's no one way to get it done there.

If you play your best golf, you have a chance of going out there

and winning or contending for this title.

But what I found doing the research for this one

is that over the last five years, what all of the contenders have in common

is that they've all played well at some point over the first two months of the season.

Then I went back and looked, five years,

26 players, one year there was a tie for fifth place.

26 players total have finished the top five.

Seven of them already had a win early in the season going into this one.

I believe it was half 13 of them had a top five.

And all but one 25 of 26 had finished inside the top 15

and at least one event coming into the players' championship.

EC, I know you can name the other guy, the one guy

that finished top five of the players in the last five years

that hadn't shown any form coming in.

I'm speechless who you got.

Annerban Lahiri and Kamal.

He's still on liver to the kick him off.

He's on live.

Okay, they didn't kick him off.

He didn't get relegated.

All right, see, you're the resident weatherman

and normally we rely on this during FRL time

but you're going to start us a little sooner

with some weather updates, I think.

Yeah, I talked to my guy, Patrick Scott Jim Cantor and Hito.

Actually, I did tweet at Kevin Roth.

Yesterday, very good.

He's good and he didn't really have a definitive answer

because we're a little too far out.

But what it is looking like,

and I think this matter is not just for DFS

but for your outrides, potentially,

your matchups, your finishing positions,

it does look like right now.

There may be an advantage.

And if there is, it could be a distinct advantage.

We know how this tends to work.

Sometimes it can become a distinct advantage.

AMPM looks like it's going to be

with the better conditions,

from particularly from a wind standpoint.

What that means is for those that are uninitiated,

Thursday AM, Friday PM, that's the group you would want to go.

If you were doing a weather stack in DFS,

or if you were, let's say this way,

if you had a tie in your outrides

and one was in the AM on Thursday and one was in the PM,

you might want to break that tie with the AM.

I can tell you, I tend to lean into those

a little bit more than others

and a lot of times it doesn't work out for me.

So it's really up to you in terms of your risk tolerance.

But I know I'm going to be leaning into Thursday AM

Friday PM more than most.

Our guy Mitchell Smith in the chat,

this is clutch right here and thank you.

So he tracked the last 20 winners,

11 were PM, AM, 9 were AM PM.

So not necessarily a trend there

of the last six four started in the PM

two started in the AM on Thursday.

So just good to know.

I appreciate you looking at out Mitchell.

Great stuff.

Always appreciate your contributions.

All right.

First of all, I'm going to get Patrick's storyline.

So I asked him, do you have anything for us here being on site?

He said major conditions for a major championship question mark.

Greens are brown crispy and making that thud sound already.

Really hot out.

Roughest sticking straight up going to play tough.

So that's some insight.

And so do you've been there a million times probably?

I mean, does that sound pretty accurate to you?

It does.

And what I'm hoping is that it doesn't get too baked out

which makes the tour go and try to change

a little bit.

I'm looking back now.

It was Ken Duke in 2016, exactly 10 years ago,

who shot a 7 under 65 in Saturday's third round,

which doesn't sound like anything to do special.

But the scoring average was like 75 that day.

I mean, he was 10 shots better than the field.

And so they are very, very aware of not letting the course get away from them.

So I know a lot of people here.

Man, it's it's crispy.

It's getting brown.

There's the thud sound on the greens already.

And we all think, man, that's awesome.

This place is going to be playing the way it used to play in May

and playing a little bit tougher.

I hear that.

It's almost like a warning because I know the PGA tour,

they don't want players complaining.

There's a PGA tour headquarters,

their flagship event.

The tour wants to make sure that guys aren't shooting 75.

The scoring average doesn't get out of hand

and that everyone's complaining about the conditions.

And that that takes over instead of the storyline

about this being a fifth major championship or whatever it might be.

So yes, I love hearing that.

And yes, I want to see tough conditions.

I'm just a little worried that they're too tough, too early.

And that the PGA tour decides to go like,

let's water everything down and make it softer.

So we don't embarrass these guys.

And that's great insight.

If you're going to bet round scores as I like to do.

And let's see, you got to put some round score,

parlay together now.

Those are available on sportsbooks.

What Sobel said, just tread carefully Thursday, Friday.

Let's see what they do.

Maybe it gets a little bit easier over the weekend.

My storyline is we're adding a temporary member

of the no bet list just for this week only.

You will not go on the graphic.

I don't need any more Xs.

But I can assure you that this player

is not going to win this week.

And that is Rudy McElroy.

Who knows if Rudy McElroy is even going to play?

Now, Sobel, you could probably attest to this.

The guy has a back injury.

He withdraws from a signature event last week on Saturday.

When he was in contention and would have made

there about some $1,000,000 how he played halfway decent

over the weekend.

Not sure who's going to win, but nonetheless,

he would have played, would have made some good money.

He withdraws, and he's not even at TPC sawgrass yet.

He's apparently arriving tomorrow.

I don't know how you can bet him much less at 20 to 1.

Am I off base here, Sobel?

So look, everything says don't bet him.

I thought it was a little strange last week.

And it's not that the report was wrong.

Todd Lewis of Golf Channel, good buddy of mine.

I see him all the time.

Todd said that Rory told me it was for Prakashnary measures.

It just felt a little weird to me because that's

like something Rory does.

The Valero Texas Open if the Masters is next week.

With drawing from the Arnold Palmer invitation

when you're sort of in contention for Prakashnary measures

to be healthy for the players championship the next week,

that just seemed a little fishy to me.

And now as it comes out, Rory,

wasn't quite as close to healthy as he thought.

All of those things said, am I touching Rory this week?

Well, I wasn't until 30 seconds ago.

He's saying you wanted to put him on the no bet list,

which pretty much means I'm going to put a second

mortgage on Rory.

It's kind of a lock.

I'm not going to lie.

It's rare that I become speechless on this show.

We've just reached that stage where I just don't have a

retort after that.

Listen, 38% of the no best bet list is hitting at this this

week or this year.

Get ready if Rory hits.

I will let Matt and Josh put an X through that

just for this week only if that happens.

All right.

Let's move on to FRLs.

And this is where C&Jod and Jason Sobel the other week

gave you guys 110 to one.

Actually, Sobel, I think your price was around 100 to one.

It doesn't matter.

A lot of people made a lot of money.

And I saw a bunch of slips from around the world.

People sending not only posting them in the sports line

discord and on X,

but you guys made people a lot of money.

Let's see what you have this week.

We'll start with Patrick's,

who he has.

He is going to give us Russell Henley at 45 to one.

Tommy Fleetwood at 45 to one and Ryan Gerard at 66 to one.

Sobel, you have a two pack.

Patrick's going with three.

You have two.

Let's hear who you got.

Yeah.

So I don't want to go too far off the board with guys who really

don't have a chance of catching this.

I want good players, but I want good players with decent value

next to their names.

Adam Scott's been role that putter really well.

We're 22 years past him winning the players championship.

And you would have thought back in 2004 that there's no chance

Adam Scott at 45 is still playing this thing.

He's not only playing playing some good golf so far this year.

And I can see him being inspired.

The putter gets hot and all of a sudden Adam Scott goes out

there and shoots.

What would it take 16 E forish?

I think is kind of the usual number on a Thursday morning.

Saeed Thigal is another guy that I like him for a four-round

investment, but I probably like him a little more

for a single-round investment shot the round of the day on Sunday.

Look, it doesn't always work out this way.

Almost never works out this way, but post the round of the day on Sunday.

You're feeling good.

You have confidence.

Four days later, you go out on Thursday and go try to replicate that.

So I like trying to chase Saeed's round of the day from Sunday at Bay Hill.

All right, fair enough.

See ya.

People tune into this show just to hear these picks from you.

That's how electric you've been.

Now you and Sobel, obviously, as I talked about,

get the other way, but people absolutely love what you got.

And now you have four picks this week.

So speaking of four picks, I had four picks last week as well.

And I shared this in our group text.

And this isn't really me padding myself on the back.

I mean, it is a little bit, but it is instructive in terms of maybe DFS.

If you liked my first round leaders, what I did last week is I put my four first round leaders in a lineup.

I added Kim Young and Daniel Burger because I also liked them last week.

Just didn't like him as first round leaders.

That lineup was a single bullet and 8300 person $5 contest.

It was in first place for $10,000.

It dropped to second place thanks to Ludwig hitting one of his very many 25 foot puts.

It ended up winning $3,000 though on a $5 entry.

So I'm not saying that's going to happen again even this year.

But I am saying that like I am trying to locate these guys with upside that are going out

at the right time of day and all of those things.

And last week we didn't hit the first round leader,

but all of those guys I recommended were near the top.

Colin Moore-Kawa, I mean, this is going to be a familiar theme.

It's going to sound like last week.

We hit Colin Moore-Kawa in every way possible outside of the outright last week.

I like him here quite a bit, like the course fit.

I think the putter can be live for a round.

I honestly think it could be live for four rounds potentially.

But Colin Moore-Kawa and C. Wu-Kim, I just think fit this course so perfectly.

You look at the recent approach play.

You look at the weighted T-degree numbers.

You look at the accuracy off the T.

These guys can light it up here and they have the history to prove it.

Victor Hoblin is interesting because his approach play has been unbelievable,

not only at TPC sawgress, but also lately look at him off the T.

He's gained four out of five times here at TPC sawgress off the T.

The around the green play is probably why I don't really have him as an outright.

But we saw him completely dialed with the putter last week as well.

So I think it's a really good time to cash in on Victor Hoblin first round leader at 45 to 1.

But Colin is all admit something I added like late in the game and I was doing what people do.

Strokes gain narrative style.

Who's got a birthday on March 12th, March 16th, whatever the case may be.

Sometime during the tournament, I found out that Nikolai Hoigard by the way,

his birthday is this Thursday.

He goes out in the PM, he's 74 to 1 if you want to take that you can.

But but Colin has a birthday on Monday, March 16th right after the tournament.

Now yes, I am narrative shopping a little bit, but when you look a little deeper on

Bud Colley, you see that last year, he really popped here, gained across every single

Strokes gain metric and oh, by the way, we haven't seen Bud Colley in a little while

until last week in terms of him actually being good, where he was T18.

And you look at him last year, he kind of like fumbled around a little bit at the beginning

of the year, but then he got hot on the Florida swing at the players at the Valspar,

the tournament after that.

So maybe Bud Colley just warms up this time of year.

It's 98 to 1.

Do I actually think he's going to be there?

No, do I think he can be there?

I'm willing to put a couple of bucks on it.

See, nobody's going to doubt you at 98 to 1.

You just hit 110 to 1 the other week.

Go ahead, Sobel.

Local guy from just down the road loves Florida golf.

So that helps.

Secondly, see, you mentioned that it's this week.

It's Niklai Hoigard's birthday.

I was just wondering if you knew when Rasmus Hoigard's birthday is today.

Oh, that's so funny.

I wasn't even, I don't know why I wasn't even thinking of that.

That's hilarious.

All right.

So yeah, both Hoigard's.

Okay, good call.

That's a narrative.

They say, so well, I think you said at the other week,

like you can't bet one Hoigard without the other one.

I can't that for years.

Yeah, I like to do that.

I'm betting Niklai again.

That's spoiler alert for a few seconds down the road.

Go ahead, so here's the thing.

I mean, this is just me being an idiot.

Rasmus has an AMP MT time.

Niklai does not.

So we can play the birthday narrative for first round leader with Rasmus.

If you want to throw him in, I'm not looking at his number.

But I assume it's in the the 65 to 75 range.

Just though, I don't want to add too many to my first round leader list.

Rasmus birthday on Thursday.

Just saying on tomorrow's early edge.

Expect to see that as a CEO play.

Yeah.

The one of the Hoigards, if not both,

if Rasmus at that number, a nice number.

So mine is end to, you know, I'm not as smart as you guys clearly.

But I'm going to go end of round one.

Top 20 finishes.

No, I mean, this is these are good numbers.

I had good success with the top 10s.

Got Wyndham Clark the other week.

Got her up both over four to one.

So we're going to cut that in half

with Akshay Batiyah and Minwuli at plus 220 each.

So Akshay has top 20s in the first round in his last four events.

And he opened with a 67 here last year in the top five.

Minwuli has six top 20s in his last seven first rounds.

And he's two for three in the top five after round one here.

We're just asking for top 20s.

Now, this does not include ties.

So you have to chop the pot if your guys get, you know,

right towards the end of that top 20.

But I think I could have gone more aggressive and put these guys in the top 10s.

So at plus 220, I think we have some value on both these plays.

You can use these just to kind of make some of your money back

after you sprinkle all of these outrides.

Go ahead, Sobel.

Here's a question for you guys and for everybody in the chat there

that myself and Scott Harrington were going over

in the post game show after the end of the API on Sunday evening.

If I give you one player from this week through the end of the season

at the end of August to choose from, do you take Akshay Batiyah

or Daniel Berger?

I think the very fair question.

I know a lot of people are jumping on Akshay.

I thought Akshay did a little bit with Smoke and Mirrors.

Look, that was the best wedge plus putting performance.

We've seen from a winner in the shot link era.

And he still needed to go to a playoff to win that golf tournament.

Look, we know that T-Degrean stats are more sustainable than short game stats.

Berger's been better at T-Degrean.

I think I go Berger.

I know everyone's into Akshay Batiyah right now and he played so well

and deserves that win.

But I think I go Berger over the next what five months or so.

Interesting. See you.

So I was on Berger last week.

I liked him quite a bit in like DFS.

The problem with Akshay, the problem going with Berger over Akshay is,

yeah, it was Smoke and Mirrors a little bit last week.

I mean, honestly, Berger should have won that tournament.

I just feel like I feel like I say that with conviction.

Yeah.

With that said, Akshay has been doing this from a ball striking

and putting standpoint for a few tournaments now.

So yeah, last week did look like Smoke and Mirrors.

But I mean, the off the tee play and the approach play and the putter

have been really clicking for him almost for the entirety of 2026.

So that does give me pause because if we're comparing the two

from a pure upside standpoint,

I think I would probably go with Akshay if we're talking about,

you know, floors and we're talking about making cuts

and things of that nature.

Maybe it's Berger, but I think they're both in really good position

to have some high finishes for the rest of the year.

I will say I thought about adding Daniel Berger to the no bet list

after blowing a lead like that.

But you know what, that clutch putt on 18 on the 72nd hole,

sent it to a playoff of 15 footer shows,

you know what, it wasn't that he played bad.

It was that Akshay was clutch on the back nine.

I'm not going to fault Berger for that.

So he just narrowly avoids the no bet list.

Sorry guys.

If I can draw out real quick,

Michael was just in the chat asking about finishing position

parlay's from last week.

And I did look, last week was the first week

for those of us in Florida who only have access to one sports book.

It was the first week that sports book,

let us parlay finishing position plays.

Moe is jealous of everybody that can do it

around the country.

We only have one book here.

Michael said in the chat,

hey, try it.

It's working now.

I went and did it.

I parlayed six players for top 40s last week.

Granted, a 72 man field,

but I'm like, this is pretty safe.

I got seven and a half to one there.

We're in all favorites.

And it hit pretty easily.

So thanks to Michael and the chat for you.

I wouldn't have known that we could even do that.

No one had told me and I've tried to do it before.

It hadn't worked.

Last week was the first week.

So Michael, shout out to you.

Thank you for that.

And yes, we did it.

I've got a fun 41 to one finishing position parlay

for later in the show.

And for the record,

I will note that yeah,

it's good that that hard rock is doing that.

We know DK, you can do that as well.

DK this week, I think maybe for some of the bigger tournaments,

they're including the including ties,

not just for the top 20 top 10 top five market,

but also for the T30 T40 market.

So that finishing position parlay

and the finishing positions that we're going to offer

later on in the show,

those are going to include ties

in that top 30 40 market as well.

And I have a five legged for the top 40

a little bit later in the show in honor of Jason Sobel.

And just because of what you said,

Cia, I did that.

Coming up next,

if Patrick McDonald was here,

he would yell at me for one of my picks

in the matchup section.

Instead, we'll leave it to Cia and Jason

to see what they think of one of my crazy plays.

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Rated R.

You know, speaking of college basketball

in the chat is our buddy, Jeff Hoffman.

Check it out.

This guy is on fire.

He's a great handicapper.

Loves to make college basketball picks.

Love being on early edge with him.

See you with you guys.

So obviously, this is the greatest

college basketball betting week of the year.

And see you.

Well, my air is on a wildcat.

I wore this shirt on the show just for you.

Just right now, I want you to call your shot.

Will they be in the final four or no?

No.

They'll lose in...

They'll find a way to lose in the elite eight.

So they know they won't make the final four.

I will say this.

There's a duke injury that is going to help Arizona

potentially win it all.

But no, Arizona's going to let you down

like they always do, my friend.

Sobo, will my air is on a wildcat's

be in the final four?

Yeah, you're nay.

I am the wrong guy to ask college basketball questions.

You certainly do not seem like you're on a heater right now.

So I will pretty much bet against anything

EC related.

So I might just go

outright win for what Vermont state

in the opening round against Arizona.

That's cruel.

I expect that from Patrick, not you.

By the way, Rick and the Chats has been

down. That is the model of the University of Arizona.

Thank you, Rick.

You are a great friend to the program.

Jeff Stenberg, you are not a great friend of the program.

This is Arizona's dog water.

That is not appropriate talk.

So we will move on back to golf here.

All right, let's get to it.

And I'm going to start with my first pick.

Usually you guys go first.

Guys, I know we like to make crazy bets on this show.

You guys out there in the chat,

you love to make crazy bet.

There will be a hole in one on the 17th hole at TPC

saw address.

And we're going to play that at two to one.

And I have a stat for you.

Okay, this is crazy.

But there have been six in the last seven years.

And since 2016, excluding 2020,

we have had a hole in one on 17,

at least every other tournament.

And there were none in 2025.

So based on that, I mean, we're getting 360 tries

to get in the hole in one.

And I think we're going to get one.

So I'm playing that at two to one.

See ya.

So we'll start with you.

What do you think?

Little insight here.

There are probably 3,000 people up on that hill by 17

every single day, all day with some corporate boxes,

both behind and behind the T box and behind the green.

Look, the tour would like nothing more than first.

Someone to make a hole in one at some point.

You can't put the ball in the hole for them.

But even if it's a little like we can put the hole here

or we can put it a foot closer here

where it's in more of a little bit of a funnel

and it has a chance of going in.

They want to see one.

It makes for great highlight reels.

It makes for great look.

Sports center top 10 plays and everything else.

It behooves the tour to have a hole in one

on the signature hole of their flagship event.

So I like that bet.

I also don't like betting no against hole in one

because you're sitting there from Thursday morning

rooting for nobody to make a hole in one.

That's no fun for four days.

Our guy props to us always says it's under until it's over.

It's what he's taught me in the past.

That's why every time I go on the show with him

I always have to bet under, see ya.

But I mean, it's a no until it's a yes.

So I understand those who want to fade that

but we're going to give it a shot at two to one.

But I'm going to let you start in this from here.

You have a round one three ball, including a guy

that's trying out a lot of drivers on the range right now.

How do we feel about Scotty?

So okay, I'll do the column one first,

but I'm not going to let go too far into it

because I explained this one on the early edge this morning.

Y'all know I've been betting column more.

That that train is not going to be slowing down

until I start missing some bets,

which certainly could happen this week.

But I really like column more.

I was formed over Russahemlee both great course fits.

But Russahemlee, if you hadn't noticed,

the approach play's been a little bit off.

I'm sure he can rebound here,

but I just love the state of column more.

Cow is game over Russahemlee right now.

I think this should probably be in the minus 130 range.

The way column more cow is striking it.

And I'll take the minus 122.

This Scotty Sheffler one is interesting.

You know, I'm trying to,

I'm trying to come up with the tournament matchup.

I didn't love any tournament matchups.

Okay, so I'm laboring over and I'm laboring over.

And then I said, okay, well, I've got a round one matchup.

Maybe I'll have two round one plays on the show

since those are generally pretty successful for me.

I couldn't find a head to head.

And then I looked at the Scotty Sheffler one.

And I said, oh, this is a head to head.

It's a three ball that includes Justin Thomas.

And let's just be really honest about Justin Thomas.

Yeah, he was great here last year.

You know, he had a really nice round.

He's a great golfer.

But he's coming back from an injury

and he's coming to a place that just does not suit his game.

And oh, by the way, lost 11 strokes ball striking last week.

Wasn't very good with the putter either.

I just don't think he is in play here

when you're talking about the caliber of golfer

of Scotty Sheffler and Tommy Fleetwood.

So I'm boxing him out.

And the way I see this,

it's a Scotty Sheffler head to head matchup against Tommy Fleetwood.

Now, what should that line be?

Minus 190 minus 175 minus 210.

I'm not 100% sure.

I could have probably looked into that.

But the point is it's certainly not going to be minus 115.

So you can make the argument that, hey,

you know, you're boxing Justin Thomas out

and you probably shouldn't be completely doing that.

That's what I have decided to do here.

I think the analysis here is Scotty Sheffler

versus Tommy Fleetwood.

And if it's minus 115, I'm getting a pretty good deal.

So I think Scotty Sheffler is going to rebound just fine.

Bad Scotty Sheffler days in Stilt Beach, Tommy Fleetwood,

especially considering Tommy Fleetwood had a bad week last week.

Scotty Sheffler minus 115 in the round one three ball.

Absolutely. Love it.

I mean, I like Tommy Fleetwood this week,

as I'll talk about later in the show,

but that is a really good number.

See, I mean, that's great logic.

You just throw Justin Thomas in his plus 14 out from last week.

So I'm with him.

Yeah, go ahead, so sorry, a little note on Scotty too.

Scotty said during his press conference earlier today,

that his ball striking is Iron Play for the first three rounds

last week was, eh, it was just okay.

He said he hit it in round four,

as well as he has all year.

Now, he was asked this question about stats

and how much do you look at the stats?

And what do they mean to you?

And he actually lost strokes on approach last year for last week

for the first time in I think three or four years.

That said, Scotty pointed out something really interesting

and he's not wrong about this at all.

It's not an excuse.

But he said his ball on the par three, 14th hole,

stayed up in a tree, never came down.

Well, you're gonna lose a bunch of strokes

on your approach shot if the ball stays in the tree.

And then on 18, he said, big gust of wind,

I hit a really good shot.

Wind blew as soon as that ball got in the air

and it went in the water.

Look, that's, that's going to change your strokes game

approach on a pretty big, big differential there.

So yeah, I get it.

Their stats and it happens to everybody.

And if we're going to start looking at every single shot

and say if and but then we can go through that all day.

But Scotty, I thought broke it down pretty well

that on 16 holes, he hit pretty good approach shots

on two of them.

He really got kind of screwed

and he got screwed to the point where the stats

are going to look really bad.

Hey, Scotty, your own risk this week, though,

I believe all of us are.

We'll talk later about that in the program.

But so, you have a couple of picks at minus 105 here.

And I really, really like this first one,

Setstrucka had a great run on Saturday

gave what the definition of a cheap thrill.

That was Setstrucka.

I got him at 66 to one to finish

behind Daniel Berger heading into round three.

Boy, I was feeling really good about that number

when it dropped to like five to one on Saturday night.

He didn't get it done with a bad back nine on Sunday.

You like him at minus 105 over Betia

for the first for the tournament.

Setstrucka is one of those guys

who's criminally underrated.

I think we just look at him as like,

pretty good second, third tier player.

He's a top 10 player in the official world golf ranking now.

We can certainly debate whether the official world golf ranking

ranks players the way it should.

That said, Set's been very good for a long time

and he's been very good on this golf course.

It's weird.

He's a big dude.

So I think people look at him and go,

man, that guy hits it a long way.

Actually, this hits a lot of fairways.

He doesn't hit it that far over Oxay Betia this week.

Again, I'm going back to the fact that Oxay's tea

the green game got better as the week progressed.

In the first round, he was dead last off the tee

and first with the putter and everything

sort of the differential closed and narrowed a little bit

as the week continued and he wasn't bad on Sunday in the win,

especially on the back nine.

All of that said, look, a lot of emotion of winning,

a lot of mental energy expended.

I will go with Setstrucka's an underdog in that matchup

on the golf course where I believe he has three top 20s

in his last four starts then.

Harris English, somewhere.

And I hope it's somebody in our chat,

not for their sake, but I just hope we can find this person.

Somewhere somebody has bet Harris English top 20

every single tournament he's played this year.

Because you know why he's finished

between 20 second and 28th every single time.

Does not have top 20 yet this season,

but he's played really good, solid, high level, floor golf.

And so I'm going to stick with Harris English

for a couple of reasons.

First of all, like I said, he's playing well.

Secondly, Kurt Kidayama has a decent record here.

I think it was top 10 a few years ago,

but that doesn't do a whole lot for me.

And thirdly, you don't think Harris English

is going to grind if he gets to,

let's say the 15th C on Sunday afternoon,

looks up at one of those big scoreboards

and sees he's in a share of 23rd place.

Guess what?

Other guys are like, you know what, kind of doesn't matter.

Let's just get this thing in the house,

maybe we ain't make a birdie.

Let's not make any mistakes.

Harris English is like, I'm finishing in the top 20.

He's a little motivated right now

to go just get one notch better

than he's been over his last six starts.

So I like Harris English

for a bunch of reasons in this matchup over Kidayama.

So I can't argue with that, make sense.

So see, you know I love to make these kind of bets.

You and I, with the top Canadian,

I hit that last week, Corey Connors, plus 150.

There's three guys from South America

in this week's event, Nico Etcher-Barrilla,

Emiliano Grillo and Johnny Vegas.

This is, this was rough.

It was also like these guys have pretty bad course form

in recent years.

Nico's over three and making the cut here.

Vegas seven for 11, Grillo five for nine,

but the other two not really great finishes.

But I'm gonna take Etcher-Barrilla

plus 112 for top South American.

He has the best current form by far

and the best historical putting splits on Bermuda.

It's all I needed to see to break the tie

of guys that probably could all miss the cut.

I know some people like Nico.

It's funny in our group text that we have among the show,

Patrick on Thursday texted Nico at 250 to one

when he got off to a great start on the front nine

and he proceeded to get back five on the back nine, I believe.

So Patrick, if you had Nico last week,

you can blame Patrick McDonald for why he went South.

We'll just say, just wanna point that out.

All right, let's go to finishing position.

See what you guys have.

Let's start with Patrick.

He has Ryan Gerard for a top 20 at plus 250.

That's a great number considering how good Gerard

has been this season.

See, you have a couple of top 30s with a couple players

who played really, really well last week

and played well this season.

Let's hear it.

These are including ties.

So I wanna make that very clear.

Both of these guys, by the way,

I treat these very conservatively.

If you wanna change it up and you wanna do top 20,

you're more than welcome to or even a top 10

maybe in Ben Moody's case in particular.

But yeah, Daniel Berger has been playing really well.

It's part of the reason I was on him last week,

particularly in DFS.

The ball striking is there.

The putter certainly hasn't really been there this year,

but it's coming around a little bit.

He's very comfortable out here.

I think in really all the Florida courses.

So I think top 30 at plus 110 is a very comfy number.

Minemoo Lee, so I think we need to start addressing

that some of these golfers are just different now

than they were before.

Minemoo Lee, top 30 at even money.

Again, you could be a little bit more risk tolerant here

and take a top 20 or a top 10,

but he's really raining it in with the off the tee play.

Like the accuracy happens to be there.

We know he's a long hitter, but the accuracy is there.

The approach play has not been bad,

which usually is really bad.

And we know he can get with a short game

he can really get there.

So I think Minemoo Lee is a guy that is going to start,

I'm not start, continue to scare leaderboards on Sunday.

Wouldn't shock me at all if he is contending this week.

I'm taking a conservative approach

in terms of the top 30 at even money,

but again, you could top 20, top 10 this with Minemoo Lee.

He's very much in play.

The betting market has respected him for like a good month now.

And on the front end of it, I was kind of like,

I don't really know what the short money is doing here.

I get it now.

Minemoo Lee is legit.

Yeah, I'm betting him later, spoiler alert.

Okay, sobel, you have some aggressive numbers here

with a top 10 and a top 20, I kind of like them both.

Yeah, I'm going to talk about Minemoo Lee

in just a few minutes as well, spoiler alert there.

Russell Henley is a guy that I don't bet very often.

So if I've got Russell Henley on the card,

you know that I really like him.

And look, this is a high level floor play on a guy

that I think fits what the golf course is doing right now,

which from everything I've heard from everybody on site,

you've got to keep it in the fairway,

you've got to hit greens, you can't hit it in this rough,

you're just going to be hacking it out.

I'm going to take a guy that hits more fairways

than just about anybody in Russell Henley

and he showed he could play some good golf on this course as well.

And then Aaron Rye fits exactly the same profile

as Henley does, a guy that hits fairways, hits greens,

doesn't make too many mistakes, played well here a year ago,

lives at the Pontavidra Beach area, so he gets to see

if not this specific golf course courses like it.

And so Aaron Rye's a guy that I like as well for a guy

that I think maybe some people aren't talking about as much.

We're going to talk about in just a few minutes,

some guys that everybody is on this week

or at least a lot of people are on this week.

Aaron Rye's maybe a guy that, if you're playing DFS,

if you're looking for a guy that has a little bit bigger

number next to his name, he might be the ones to look at.

So I can't argue with any of those

and you can't argue with Jacob Richmond for a top 20.

Now I know you finished 50 if he or last year,

this is C as guy, he is six for six inside the top 20

this season with ties at plus 200.

I'm going to keep playing it until it doesn't hit.

Nikolai Hoigard, as C, I mentioned,

it's his birthday on Thursday.

He's top 20 this season in Stroke's Game T-Degrean

Off the T approach around the green

and fifth overall in Stroke's Game.

All those numbers give me a top 30 at plus 138.

He is T-24 better in all four events this season.

The record at TPC Sawgrass is an amazing two missed cuts,

but at top 30 number at plus 138 considering

he's done it all season.

Let's ride the current form

as Jason Sobel told us earlier in the show.

Speaking of a guy that you got to ride,

I guess it's history here.

Tom Hogi, seven for seven, five top 40s in that time,

including two T-3 finishes in the last three years.

Now he has three top 40s and three missed cuts

and seven events this season.

So the current form isn't great, but I'll tell you what,

he's one of the best iron players on tour

and you're getting him top 40 with ties at two to one.

That's good enough for me.

I will be onboard Tom Hogi at this number top 40 at plus 200.

Coming up next, producer Josh is going to join us

and I'm sure it's going to have a lot to say

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All right, here we are.

Well, let's bring on the top, the no-bet list,

the, I don't know what to call it, top-fade list.

Yeah, there we go.

Well, it's got another X in it.

And yeah, I mean, there's not much to say.

We've got 13 names on there, I believe,

and three of them have already been crossed off.

And last year, I just want to say,

I did really good on this list until like August.

And then came young one and Tommy Fleetwood won.

This year, got not to a rough start.

I think we're going to be okay this week.

See, do you feel like I'm going to be in danger

with any name on this list this week?

Well, I have an outright that is on this list,

but to be fair, it's not the outright I have more,

like, it's my least favorite of the outright.

Let's put it that way.

So, Abel, you just gave out Russell Henley.

Is there anyone on here that you would

that I should be concerned about?

Yeah, I never like Henley to win outright.

I just like him as a high level floor player.

Hadecki can win this golf tournament.

Yeah, I know.

Hadecki sort of owed one here.

Remember, he had the opening round lead six years ago

when COVID happened and they packed it all in

and left so grass the next day.

That was kind of like my betting luck summed up

in like a lifetime, you know, based on that first round.

I had the right pick there with Hadecki to win the tournament.

He shoots a nine under 63 in the first round

and the tournament ends.

And I get no, and we didn't see golf for like four months.

Well, well, well, three months.

We saw golf two months later on the outlaw tour

where we were able to bet Yannick Paul and Jeremy Paul

and KK Limba suit and many, many others.

Even JJ Spon jumped on that tour for a few tournaments.

Had a ton of KK Limba suit.

Colt knows gave me so much grief at one point.

He was playing in one of those and I didn't even pick him that week.

I bet JJ Spon would he ducked in there and he missed the cut.

Yeah, those are those were in Arizona, right?

Those were my nettoes.

I think you're collo Galetti.

Yeah, I mean, there are some names.

Had I known what was going on,

I would have gone out and would have given me something to see in person.

All right, let's bring on producer Josh.

Let's see what we have outright time.

We're going to add in areas.

Josh, before we move on to outright,

do you have anything to say about the no bet list meeting its demise yet again?

There are many who aspire to be as effective

picking outright winners as the no bet list.

It is it is good stuff.

I will say it is it's hard to look at a list

that has Matt Fitzpatrick, Russell Henley and Hadecki on it and be confident.

You're going to get out of this week.

I you probably will, but those are three names that on Sunday.

If if they are holding a trophy,

I wouldn't be I wouldn't be totally surprised.

Okay, fair enough.

All right, let's bring on the outrits and let's see what the guys have actually

haven't cheated.

So I don't know what anybody has on this list.

We will start with Patrick McDonald,

who is going with a couple with a player on this no bet list,

Russell Henley at 30 to one,

Matt Rickdenley at 60 to one,

and Ryan Gerard at 70 to one.

Now, here's the thing.

So we're going to start with you here because all three of you have the same guy

on your list and he has been steamed down so much in my opinion to an unbetable number.

And that's Colin Morecala at less than 21 to one.

What do you say, Sobel?

I like everything about Colin Morecala this week, but one thing.

I'll start with what I like.

I like the fact that he's back to playing elite level golf with his iron.

So the approach play has been fantastic back to where he was when he was winning major championships.

He's now added a putter that, okay,

he might not be putting it like Jacob Bridgeman,

but he's still putting better than field average over his last three starts.

He's putting for a guy that hits it as well as he is.

His putter is good enough to win on any given week.

Here's the one thing that I don't like about Colin Morecala and it's exactly what you said.

You see everybody is on Colin Morecala this week.

The race is getting shorter.

I actually got them, I think in a bigger price than this before the week even started

because players championship odds were out earlier that said,

look, you can't go anywhere.

You can't go on social media.

You can't turn on a show like ours without people picking Colin Morecala to win.

I get it.

I understand it.

I like them the best too, but I don't know.

It's one of those deals where anytime everyone zigs in one direction,

you probably should zag the other way, but I'm ziggin with everybody else this week.

And by the way, begs the question.

And I will ask you guys this.

Colin Morecala was not the best golfer in the world.

We know that.

Who is playing the best golf in the world right now?

Is it Colin Morecala?

John Wrong.

No, stop.

Wait, are you saying from like a Stroke's Gain standpoint?

I'm saying less from a statistical standpoint.

I guess we can look at Stroke's Gain total and just go,

OK, here are the best players this year.

I think Rory's first and Jake Nap is second so far this year.

And I don't think Stroke's Gain total is a bad place to start when you're doing your research this week.

I just think over the last three starts and granted, these things are very fluid.

I think Colin Morecala might be playing better golf than anyone now.

Four days from now, five days from now, that's going to change.

And somebody else is going to be playing better golf.

And we're going to be talking all about the next guy who's playing best in the world.

But I think as of right this very second and a very small sample size over the last three or four weeks,

I think it might be more of a cow.

Sobel, I stayed up until one in the morning the other day to watch live Hong Kong.

And for some inexplicable reason, I don't know why I'm a savior.

It really was single behaviors.

I was really sweating that Lucas Herbert, top 10 that I had finished T8.

Nonetheless, wrong.

Two, two, one.

In three, I mean, this is a guy that right now,

I'm looking at betting his master's number at 16 to one.

I'm like, he's playing as well as any, I mean, say what you want.

I don't dislike that.

Look, when you said Ram is playing better than everyone, I kind of said,

Oh, come on, he's not playing anybody.

You know, Ram can come to my club and beat me and my buddies in a four ball.

And like, yeah, he's going to win, but he's not playing anyone.

That said, I don't hate John.

Where I'm doing the masters at all this year.

I kind of like it.

We're a month away.

We're starting to talk about that a little bit.

I don't think that's bad play whatsoever.

But the problem with Liv is that I look at these players.

I'm not really sure how to assess their games because who's John Rom beating right now.

There's not a whole lot of other players who are playing real well over there.

By the way, should I give my other two picks?

Yeah, go ahead and keep on going.

Victor Holland, Minwool Lee.

See, he talked about Minwool a few minutes ago.

I have seen a different Minwool Lee this year.

This is a guy who has fun on social media.

And everyone wears chef hats and let him cook.

And he's having a good time.

Look, there's nothing wrong with any of that.

He looks like a more serious, more mature player now.

He's 27 years old.

He had the invitation.

The offer to play Liv in the off season said, I'm not going anywhere.

I'm staying with the PGA tour.

Ever since then, he's looked like a guy who's intent on going out and winning golf tournaments

and playing better golf.

So I like a more mature Minwool Lee to play well here again.

Remember, he was in the final pairing alongside Scott and Sheffler just a couple of years ago.

Can't argue with that at all.

Now, see, you also, it's a Colin Moore, a collar week for you, explain your three picks.

A couple of things I want to point out here, just some notes I wrote down with respect

to the betting market.

And I'll be short with my outright because there's a lot of, there's a lot of like repeat

stuff here.

Minwool Lee, just so everybody knows, from a tournament matchup standpoint, is a pretty

big favorite over Chris, Chris Goddard, we're talking tournament matchups.

And I just, I just want, I'm just trying to set the table.

He's minus one 38 in one place, he's minus one 50 in another place.

So in terms of the respect that Minwool Lee is getting, I mean, we all know Chris Goddard

was playing really good golf.

I don't think anybody would expect Minwool Lee to be a minus one 50 or even a minus one

38 necessarily against Chris Goddard up.

Other things I noticed, Siwool Kim was a huge favorite in a tournament matchup, minus

one 63 over came young.

So that's where I'm going to go.

Siwool Kim's 24 to one.

I'll mention that if you watch the early edge Monday morning, I've started to give out

outright on the early edge and pretty much hours, and I'm not saying it's related to

our show, but I'm giving them out Monday morning because I know the number is going to get

smashed.

It's happened for about three weeks in a row now, I've also put it in the sports line

discord.

Sometimes I'm tweeting them out.

Conmore Kawa was 25 to one on Monday.

It's a much better number than basically 20 to one year.

It was obviously longer prior to Monday, Jason probably got it up around 27, 30 to one.

I really like Colin, really like Siwool, those are two of my outright.

The outright that I think a lot of people will kind of question is Matt Fitzpatrick.

I'm going to go right back to him.

I'm actually taking him in the without Scottie Sheffler market because I still like the number

at 35 to one.

So that's the only one I'm actually taking in the without Scottie Sheffler market.

But Matt Fitzpatrick, he's come into this year with just being an awesome ball striker.

And somehow last week it just didn't work out for him, but the putter was there.

And we know two weeks ago or two tournaments ago, the putter wasn't there for him.

So I think Matt Fitzpatrick can still put it together.

I think the number is drifting long enough for me to consider it.

Josh, let's see who you've got on the screen.

Do tell us about not only Moorakawa, but Jake Napa, a guy that a few people in the chat

have asked about and then Berger in the without market.

Yeah, you know, I'll actually listen, I'm, I am nowhere near as well vetted on what is

value and what is not value compared to Jason and Siwa, but the, the, maybe the left

turn I'd take with, with Moorakawa is almost the last time in a field with Scottie Sheffler

that you could seriously say you think the guy that's 20, 21, 22 to 1 to win the tournament

is actually the most confident and believes he can win this tournament more than anybody.

I think you can make that argument for Colin right now on Tuesday of the players.

And it feels like it's been a really long time since that's been the case.

And you're kind of just talking to yourself into other people because you don't really

want to bet Scotty at three and a half to one.

So that's kind of fun because I do think Colin is the guy with the most confidence in

the world right now.

Obviously, you know, Rory's strokes gave numbers so far are really good, but the back will

be in his mind whether he, you know, admits it or not.

And I don't know.

Scotty talking about how a shot that ends up in the tree isn't actually as bad as it makes

it out to be.

That doesn't, that's not great.

I mean, you still hit it towards the tree.

He hadn't done a whole lot of that the last three years.

So, um, so yeah, I mean, he is, I mean, Colin, his numbers over the last 16 rounds are

just preposterous in this field.

I mean, it's, it really is gross.

He's like top three in everything and the things he's not top three in.

He's top 10 in and like five of those guys are playing in Gen Pop PGA tour events.

So, um, he's just playing that good and, and that confidence.

And, um, I'm excited to, it's a root form.

Um, as for NAP, 2026, T11, T5, 8th, T8 and 6th, those are Jake Naps finishes in 2026.

Um, the WD, I'm not that worried about, um, even if it was a back thing and not an

illness thing, it kind of feels like one of those if it was a major or if it was a playoff

game, he would have played, but he felt a little something and said, and let's, let's get

four days off.

Um, two guys total strokes game above two on the PGA tour so far this season.

One is Rory McAroy, the other is Jake Nap, um, at 50 to one.

I mean, that's, I mean, what's Rory this week, like nine to one, something like that.

Um, so I'm taking him and then you guys talked about burger a little bit, um, earlier.

I, I think, I don't think there's anything Daniel burger should take negative, negatively

from last week, um, it took a back nine 31 to beat him.

He made a clutch put on 18 to force a playoff and he shot two under on Sunday at Bay Hill

and it wasn't enough.

Like, if you handed him that on the first T, he probably takes it.

Um, and he hasn't finished outside of the top 20 in this event since 2019.

So 38 to one without all those guys down there at the bottom is, um, is something

I'm into gentlemen, please raise your hand.

If you are sweating the, um, Missouri state, FIU over so you can get one of your golfers

parlayed in this week, uh, no.

I did have a live play on a, uh, uh, bet that I lost.

It was, uh, who was Pittsburgh playing again earlier?

Stanford Stanford.

Stanford.

I had a live play on Stanford when they were down like six on the money line and the way

that game ended on that 30 second layup was, was pretty bad.

We're letting the five 10 guy get his own rebound.

Exactly.

After they already outhustled them to for like three loose balls on the same possession.

That was tough.

We're sweating Tommy Fleetwood at 20s, five to one, 27 to one, whatever it is with the,

um, I know because he burned you last week and already.

Why is Tommy Fleetwood at 25 to one better bowl and column work out at 21 to one, not

better.

Because Tommy Fleetwood had one bed week last week.

Otherwise, he's been rock solid.

And column work, how it might be the best player in the world right now here's the thing.

And I would never have said this last year, but I think Tommy Fleetwood is ready to win a

major caliber event, whether now or the summer.

I know he won the tour championship, but that's only 30 golfers in eight trips here.

He's gained more than 40 shots combined T to green has been positive T to green in eight,

in seven of eight events, elite ball striker, which is what you need to, to win at TPC

sawgrass.

And I'm just throwing out last week at the API.

It just was a mess.

I'm tossing it.

Tommy's going to get back.

He's going to give us a cheap thrill and spoiler alert.

He's my OAD guy.

Sorry, Josh.

He's going to, he's going to make amends for you last week, helping me move up the leaderboard.

Go ahead.

Tommy showed up this week, wearing his son's players championship hat to the players championship.

Right.

Love it.

Love it.

Come on.

It's like a moon sigger of a band like showing up wearing his own band.

That's me.

That's good to me.

I'm in.

If Tommy Fleetwood wins this golf tournament, you might never hear from me again.

If Tommy Fleetwood wins this golf tournament.

So, unfortunately, this is Josh's last appearance on the show.

I mean, Josh, here's how we're going to make more money this week.

We're not only going to bet Tommy Fleetwood to win because we're not we're fading Scotty.

I think Scotty's going to have a great week.

Don't get me wrong.

Tommy's going to win.

And then we have the, without Sheffler McElroy, Shafley Fleetwood market on DK, you also

bet burger in that.

I'm getting minimally at 31 to 1 in that market.

You guys have talked enough about Ninoo that I don't need to add anymore.

How about Seth Strock?

I'm going back to it in that same market at 41 to 1.

He's a ball striking machine.

He gained nearly six shots.

Shucks.

Easy for me to say.

Six shots ball striking here, each of the last two years, and he has two top 20s in

that time.

And two of his four career wins are on Bermuda, which is what we have here at TPC Sawgrass.

So I'm going to take a shot.

All right.

Hang on.

Hang on.

Okay.

Why is that market the winner without Sheffler McElroy, Shafley, and Fleetwood, but not without

the guy who's playing better golf than all of those guys and has a shorter number than

two of them.

It's really interesting.

It's funny.

You aren't the first person that brought that up to me today.

Well, it's, it's because the odds came out, or I'm assuming, because the odds came

out early.

And so now Holland, who was like in the, the low 30s, is now moved up to like, he's been

bet down to 20.

Yeah.

I was surprised with that.

So,

see, what do you think of Ludwig Oberg?

We haven't really talked about him here.

Somebody asked about him in the chat.

I can't remember who it was, but what do we think?

Are we back?

No.

I mean, I think you're, I think you're welcome to bet him.

I love his upside.

I believe if I, if I remember correctly, I can check in a second.

But I think he was pretty good here last year.

He's, he's starting to like, really round into form like we've seen it over the last

couple of tournaments.

I think he's a great upside play, which means he can absolutely win this tournament.

So I'm down with him.

I think he's a good, pretty good DFS play as well.

It's just, I went with guys who I trusted a little bit more with the ball striking.

All right.

Fair enough.

Let's move on to long shots.

Let's see what we have here.

I was going to throw my guy, Nikolai Hoigard in here, but I did not.

It's time for some parlay's Patrick's going with a miss the cut parlay of Brooks Capka,

Sam Burns, Ben Griffin, and of course, Patrick can't lay to miss the cut.

By the way, he's on the no bet list as well.

I don't know if I saw him on there, but he is, he is a staple in the no bet list that,

that we will not forget.

So those four to miss the cut, Capka Burns, Griffin, and Kentlay at 40 plus 41, 52, sobel.

You are given out a really long shot, one where you would almost need a tax form, not quite.

In Brian Harman?

Look, I don't think Brian Harman's going to win this golf tournament.

I was just looking all the way down the list for like somebody that's got some winek

with a really big number next to his name, and I'm going down there.

I'm like, Harman has not played great golf here or a great golf this year, but he's played

pretty well at the players championship over the years at 2.30 to 1, but I'll take a chance

on Brian Harman, why not?

You know, it's probably not a big play for me whatsoever, but if we're talking long

shots, I'm going to throw him out there for a long shot, then my top 40 parlay, and this

goes back to what I said last week, again, shout out to Michael and the chat who told

me and for me that Hard Rock and Florida, the only game in town is now doing finishing

position parlay bets, because they hadn't done them before last week, and so I'll throw

another six man top 40 out there, Fowler, English, Straca, Gerard, Figalla, and Aaron

Rye.

Love it.

Okay.

See ya.

You've got, well, how do you start with your outright here?

I think this is a really interesting name and a guy that I actually considered to do something

with in bets this week, and how it's only.

Yeah, and quick correction, Ludwig, he had, he had a miscut last year at the players.

It was the year before that that I think he was T8, also two tournaments in a row, gaining

across all strokes, gain metrics, over eight strokes, ball striking last week at the

API.

Yeah.

How tangly.

Listen, let's consider the number here.

This is the long shot section.

How tangly in the without Sheffler, McElroy, Shoffley, Fleetwood Market is still 115 to

one.

No experience at TPC sawgrass, but if, I mean, taking the experience part away, how

tangly is a really good ball striker and he can pop with the putter?

I think he has tremendous upside.

Now, can he miss the cut?

Yeah, absolutely.

Maybe perhaps the floor is pretty low here, but I actually think the ceiling is pretty

high.

And if I'm getting him at over 100 to one in a market where he can be that splash guy

that everybody's surprised about, and he can finish third behind Sheffler and Xander,

for example, I actually think that's kind of realistic.

So again, it's a shot in the dark, it's 115 to one in this without market.

But I think how tangling is a very good golfer and now I'm willing to say that I think

he's actually a pretty good course fit here as well.

The parlay is a top 30, top 40 parlay.

Like I like to do, it's 41 to one with a boost that a lot of books are offering.

You can get it to about 50 to one, three top 30s, Conmore Cowan, Seawoo Kim, Matt Fitzpatrick.

Those are my three outrides, if you recall.

And that's a very conservative way to play it, by the way, it's just top 30.

You can top 10, top 20 that if you want and take away a couple of these guys that I have

in the top 40 market, which are Daniel Berger, Leo Hissett-Sunei, who's playing really well.

And I think he's a pretty good course fit.

We already talked about Min Woo Lee.

So Min Woo, Hissett-Sunei, Berger, top 40, Mara Cowan, Seawoo Kim, Fitzpatrick, top 30,

41 to one.

All right, I'm going to go with a parlay of five players that have been relatively successful

in recent years at TPC Sawgrass, Substraka, Aaron Rye, Ryan Fox, Denny McCarty, and Taylor

Moore, all top 40s at a little over 60 to one.

And then just because I brought it up earlier, I had to do a live parlay, playing at Centosa,

golf course in Singapore.

We have John Robb, top five.

We have Lucas Herbert, who's been in the top 10 every week.

Dustin Johnson, been in the top 10 here the last two or a couple times here in the last

three years.

And Kim Smith, who's had some success here at Centosa, top 10.

So we've got Robb, top five, Herbert Johnson and Smith, top 10, all including ties at plus

3437.

For a tenth of the unit, you can do worse than throwing a parlay on the board.

Now, before we take the screen off, Josh, come to you.

If I were to say pick one of these bets that you like the most on this screen, what would

it be?

Hmm.

I kind of like, I kind of like to miss the cup parlay.

Brooks is the worst player in the field at 17.

I think.

Really?

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

He said that that hole has my number.

So like, he could play solid 34 holes and be like four over on 17 and miss the cut.

Like, that's, that's possible.

Patrick can't lay.

I couldn't move the needle less.

And those other two guys, you know, I don't know, 40, 41 to one for, for those, I kind

of like that.

That's not bad.

That's.

I agree.

That's pretty solid.

All right.

I also have some long shots.

I've heard that.

Oh, yeah.

Oh, that's right.

That's right.

Yeah.

All right.

Let's see.

Go ahead.

My man.

I missed that.

Oh, I love this.

I love this.

First round leader.

It's, I mean, like 76 to one, not the longest first round leader of all time.

But I wasn't here for the first round leader.

So I'm getting it in here.

Ricky Ciccio is like, if you were going to hang a painting of a first round leader,

Ricky Ciccio has the stat profile for it.

Good form.

One last week in Puerto Rico.

He's sixth on tour and birdie or better percentage.

He's eighth in first round scoring.

He has not shot in the 70s on Thursday yet this season.

In 20 rounds on tour this season, 13 of them are 68 or better.

You could talk me into a long shot, 110 to one to win this tournament.

But he won last week.

He's probably going to run out of gas.

But it's not going to be on Thursday.

He lives in Jacksonville.

He probably slept in his own bed a couple of times this week.

If not all week, I'm down 76 to one first round leader.

And his T time is like 845 on Thursday morning, something like that.

So Josh, just throw in real quick.

This is something that C and I were going back and forth on a text message last night

about.

If you're playing DFS this week, go look at Ricky Castillo and then see all the other

guys.

You can fit into a lineup.

He's sitting there at 6200.

You can have five superstars in a lineup.

And he's like 20th in the field in Stroke's games total over the last 36 rounds.

Also, Jason, your guys Sudarshan Yellow Maraju is a flat 6K.

And my guy Marty Dow, or I should say Marty Doe, is a flat 6K as well.

If you want to dabble in those waters.

Sorry, Josh, go ahead.

So that's my first round leader play.

My outright long shot, a little bit what Jason was saying with a big name with winning

that degree.

That's got a big number next to him.

I went with a guy in Jason Day, who has won this golf tournament before.

And it was only a few weeks ago after the way he started this season that we were like.

Really nice Jason Day 2026 coming.

I think he was a pretty popular MX pick if I'm remembering correctly.

And yeah, yeah, and then, and then was it Tori as well.

I just think the form is there somewhere kind of bubbling under the surface.

The Iron Play started off nicely hasn't been great the last couple of weeks.

But we've gotten flashes in this calendar year.

And it's only, you know, the first week in the first week of March.

And good vibes here.

He has a win a couple of other top eight finishes.

So that's my, that's my big name showing some flashes recently.

Even if it's not in the immediate past with a pretty big number next to his name.

And then, you know, for those of you who don't know, I'm also the producer of the Iron

College basketball podcast.

It's March wanted to get some, some comfort tournament action in here.

I went with Virginia to win the ACC tournament.

I think it's like six and a half to one or something on its own.

Duke is way better than Virginia, way better than Virginia.

Duke has injuries, Caleb Foster, Patton Gong, but I don't really want to touch Duke.

If they lost, I mean, they might just lose to Virginia in the ACC championship game.

But they also might lose early and just be like, let's just reset.

I wouldn't be totally surprised by that.

And I wanted to pair that with somebody who went to UVA.

So I went with Danny McCarthy, top 10, which on its own is like 12 to one.

Denny is not playing well.

Don't bet, don't bet.

Danny and he, and he like real way.

But what he does here is make cuts.

He's six for six making cuts at this tournament.

And you know, I just kind of think Denny is, is a dog I've heard that the, the rough is tall.

The greens are quick.

Like he could kind of slap it around, make, you know, have a hot putting week and, you know,

on a difficult TPSD sawgrass potentially sneak inside the top 10 again.

This is fun.

127 to one.

I'm not sprinting to bet Denny anywhere else.

But these two things together 127 to one is, is, is a fun way to spend the next, you know,

five days.

All right.

See.

I'm going to ask you permission.

Now, I mean, Josh is the producer of the show.

So I mean, obviously we're allowed to do cross-sport parlays, but in the future for the

long shot section, will you allow me to do cross-sport parlays?

I actually love this idea and, and I know because I feel like, I feel like Patrick's done

it before as well, with like a Steelers future or something that was never going to win.

But I, especially with March Madness and with, you know, baseball futures and whatever,

baseball games, we've had, we've had, who was it, somebody in the chat that's always

doing the home run parlay with one of our outright winners, yeah, I grant you permission

for that.

I want to do it myself.

All right.

So next week, here's the challenge to you guys and you guys in the chat.

I want the best parlay with a Valspar outright or a Valspar finishing position and somebody

in something in March Madness.

Some March Madness future, whatever it is, so you two, I know you're not a basketball

guy per se.

Give us something.

You just pick you of A to win it all, it's super easy.

Nonetheless, Valspar, I want you guys in the chat next week as well.

We'll see our best.

We'll, we'll put it on the show and Mitchell Smith, yes, I think somebody can beat Michigan

in the Big 10 tourney.

They have a tough draw.

I actually like Michigan State on the other side of the bracket, it's seven to one.

I like Josh just thinking there.

Other side of the bracket in the ACC or Virginia's on dukes side of the bracket.

Nonetheless, seven to one team in the Big 10 tourney, seven to one team in the ACC tourney,

there's your parlay right there.

Okay.

Let's move on.

I'm trying to delay guys because OAD has been rough here.

See ya.

65th.

Josh, 115th Patrick, 2.93rd, me, 4.82nd, you guys are going to be editing my dating

profile before long and sobel, 599th, you like, sorry, Danny S. Congrats, 4.5 million.

I am jealous.

You're killing it.

Mike in second, Jay Mac in third, Collins in fourth, we got anybody's watching that's

doing well.

Let us know in the chat.

All right.

See ya.

We're going to start with you.

Who you got?

You know, this is an uncomfortable pick for me.

I'm trying to separate the name from what I'm seeing in terms of like, you know, the

course fit and the course history and things of that nature.

I wish I still had Colin.

I made money off Colin last week.

I really wish I still had Colin and that I'd maybe use somebody else last week.

But believe it or not, I'm going to go with Seawoo Kim.

I just absolutely love how he's striking the ball.

I know he can gain with the putter at TPC Salagrass.

This is a big event and I'd rather not use a Seawoo Kim, but I'm also trying to play

like not scared.

I'm trying to play what the, what my eyes are telling me and what the data is telling

me as opposed to just the name recognition and name value.

So given that I've already used Rory and I wouldn't use him anyway.

I've already used Colin.

I don't want to use Scottie yet because I'm really not sure if he is fully informed.

When I look at the rest of the names, Seawoo Kim is the one that jumps out to me over

anybody else.

So that's who I'm going with.

All right.

Josh, you're going with everybody's flavor the week.

Are you insolable?

Colin or Colin?

Yeah.

There's a small part of me that thinks anybody who doesn't, who still has Scottie not playing

Scottie as a gross overreaction, um, thought about it.

But whatever there are majors to be played and the travelers and the memorial, like I'll

find a place to, to play Scottie.

Um, yeah.

I just think I, I think Colin, I find it hard to believe that Colin doesn't finish

in the top five.

Um, I don't have any reason to suggest that that's not the case and I won't be surprised

if he wins.

And so I have him and I'll be plenty happy to play Scottie somewhere else with the big

purse.

Mm hmm.

Even if I'm a little scared of not putting Scottie's name on this page this week.

Sobel, you're almost two million behind, uh, Josh, but you're going with more Akawa

as well.

You know, some of us are in real money out here and say this fake one and done money.

So, um, I'll play last play that was crazy, that was crazy.

I didn't really have the Puerto Rico open on this thing for some reason.

So I'm playing under protest anyway.

That's true.

Two weeks ago, I took a guy that was like way off the beaten path to get leveraged because

I was so far back last week.

I went with the complete opposite and I took Scottie just to catch up to everybody and

that didn't work.

So now I'm going to take the guy who's probably 80% owned in this thing and I'm just going

to go down flames with everybody else, including Josh.

So I don't know how to do this thing.

I don't know.

I don't know.

Wow.

A lot of confidence here.

Can I pay you to pick somebody else?

Yeah.

No, it's whatever we should.

Yeah.

Okay.

The thing is the table will offer.

If Colin wins, these guys are like cruising.

These guys are half a million, right?

Four and a half million this week to the winner.

Nope.

Something like that.

So I mean, like, we're still so early where if even if you burned a guy or two that

you didn't want to burn, if you could hit one of these and actually get an outright

with Colin Moore, Kawa, like you are, you are in very good shape.

So I mean, we've got a long way to go.

I hope you guys are all ready to answer one of the dating profile questions for me.

It's been a rough go here.

We need to rewrite this thing.

Dating life is not good.

My OAD picks aren't good.

Hopefully Tommy Fleetwood can help at least, well, he's going to help one of them.

I don't know about the other ones, hopeless.

So I'm going to pick Tommy Fleetwood this week, Patrick's go with Russell Henley and

he is 650K pretty much above me.

So we're going to find out how that goes here this week.

Good luck to everyone out there.

Let's see where these stand after that.

I believe this is the richest tournament of the year in terms of purse money.

So you got to hit this one.

Let's go Tommy Ladd.

Just for you, Josh.

Just for you.

All right.

Final thoughts.

See ya.

Give me something.

Give me a final thought.

Anything related to tournament?

Well, I was going to say something like completely unrelated to the tournament.

This is such a cool.

Anything regardless.

It's such a cool time in sports.

We've got the players.

We're on the cusp of the masters.

I mean, we're just a few weeks away from that, maybe a little bit more than a few weeks

away, right?

How many tournaments are we away from masters?

Either way, we've got baseball starting.

There's just a lot going on.

So this is just a really cool time.

Thanks for dialing in with us and I can't wait to keep it going.

Always glad to have you guys here and to see what always say and you guys have done a great

job in the chat.

Say this.

Make sure to please like this video before you click out of it.

Please like this video.

Next.

Last one here.

I'm already submitting an early entry for EC's dating profile, which is please show up more

than once a year like Tommy Fleetwood.

That feels like a fun wrinkle finding a way to everything about your dating profile, having

something to do with a player or a bet that you made or that do not, that's, that sounds

great.

But we will take screenshots and write it on the air live on the last episode of early

wedged if I am not an OAD.

Go ahead, Josh.

It'll be like filling out a bracket.

That would be great.

I think it's such a swing and a miss that the PGA Tourists spend so much time trying to

make this tournament the fifth major.

I think it's, I think it's so silly because the players is already one of the more unique

events on the PGA Tour schedule every year.

Like there is, there really isn't any other tournament quite like the players.

It is, it's in a really interesting spot between PGA Tour events and the majors and I get

it.

Everybody wants to be a major.

It's not that I don't understand, but there are just so many things about this tournament

that are unique and like more unique than some of the other, that some of the majors.

Like there are things that some of these majors need to have happen for them to be incredibly

compelling.

Like the US Open needs to play difficult.

Like that is, that is a pillar of the thing and if it's wet and not windy looking at

you air and hills, then they rip it apart and it's kind of leaves you going in.

The Open Championship is awesome, but like there's a little bit of a crisis of like how

long are all of these courses that we love going to hold up to major championship golf

where just hope that the weather is kind of really brutal and we get that championship

test that we're looking for.

It almost doesn't matter what happens this week because you have sawgrass because you

have the way this thing finishes.

It's just, I think is, it's just a cool tournament and they spend so much time trying to make

it something that's not and it is the Florida golf tournament.

It's been 40 years since the, since a major was played in the state of Florida.

40 years.

They just spend the entire time trying to make it something that's not so it's going

to be an awesome week.

I wish they would chill on that just a little bit.

Thank you guys.

This is an extended show the longest one we've done yet this year.

Thank you guys so much for sticking with us.

Great job in the chat.

Always entertaining.

Producer Matt Great job.

Producer Josh Great job on the air this time.

For Jason Sobel, see you in a job and the two aforementioned producer Matt producer

Josh.

I'm going thanks for listening and as always, as I always like to say, let's hit a big

good luck.

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