Bill Kristol: End the War

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Hello and welcome to the Buller Podcast. I'm your host Tim Miller. It is Monday,

so he's back, editor at large of the Bullwork Bill Crystal. Hey, Bill.

Hey Tim, how are you? I'm doing pretty good. I'm disappointed on behalf of

all the Timothy Shalamay stands out there. It's three straight snubs for him at the Oscars. He should

have three already and yet zero. I think it's potentially discrimination against twinks.

It's a play here. It could be something to that, but I don't know. We're hoping for more

representation in the future. You should have them on the podcast tomorrow.

I've been trying. You want me to place a call? I can help with that, you know?

Okay. Thank you. Yeah, I'm sure you've been to New Yorkians.

I'm sure you guys have the same temple or something. We want to talk about Iran to start.

And you had Bob Kagan on yesterday, your Sunday conversations with Bill.

And as we've come to expect from Bob, not exactly optimistic about the state of affairs,

but super insightful and those region understand. So why are you just going to summarize what he

described as the fork in the road facing Trump and where we're at right now with this war?

Yeah, sure. You had him on about six weeks ago after his big piece in the Atlantic,

which is sort of pre-war, obviously, on kind of what Trump was doing to our alliances and

making the world much more dangerous. And I would say he views this war very much in that context,

people should go back and look at your discussion with him and then look at mine if they want

that I kept to the highlights in warning shots this morning.

No, I'm worried he's so good at it. I think Bob, he puts it in the bigger context.

And it is striking. I mean, this war has damaged our relationship with all of our allies,

basically. Europe not consulted. Can't believe we've got into this. Now we're calling on them for

after rejecting their help early on or mocking that idea that they could help. They care about

Ukraine. They care about Russia. And this war is helping Russia with the oil sales, the oil

wave of the sanctions. So from European point of view, the price is going higher.

Right. Right. Exactly. Yeah, which helps put it into double. What it seems like is

things would kind of rickety there. So from their point of view, it's like he didn't consult us.

He's gone to a war without a plan. It's helping Russia, which is really the existential threat.

We are having to deal with without Trump's help because he's not helping Ukraine these days.

And so now he wants us to help in the strait. And the German defense measures to this morning,

Pretoria's who I know I met once, but I mean, I gather from people who know this stuff is a very

pro-America and hawkish that kind of we've been hoping for a German defense minister like this,

building up Germans, defend Germany's defenses and working with the other European nations,

helping Ukraine just basically said forget it. I mean, pretty stunning would be from a very close

ally. So the German defense minister, not the French. Yeah, right. I mean, those fancy French

are cutting and running. Right. That's notable. It deepens the rift that was already there that you

and he just you and mom discussed six weeks ago and just makes it even harder to fix it. I mean,

it's, you know, Iraq, the Germans and the French, I remember well, did not agree with our decision.

We tried very hard to get them on board. We had endless meetings to you and security council,

but it's we got a lot of by the European nations on board. And we respected in a sense the German

French decision. I mean, members of Congress who made fun of the French with, you know,

the French fry was pretty surprised, but you know, the bush was polite. They we continued to

meet with them. They didn't go out of their way to cause trouble for the other European nations

that were helping us. So that preserved the alliance despite that pretty important rift, right?

We're in the opposite situation now where we're really deepening the rift in the alliance,

almost making it irreparable. Asia, the Trump people sold themselves as they're going to be tough on

China. And now Trump's asking for help from China actually to open the straight and pulling troops

out of the China theater to I don't know what maybe do a land operate, ground operation in Iran.

And if the Chinese are watching this, it's like we can't keep the straight open. You know,

the straight between Taiwan and China is it's a lot of tougher to deal there with the Chinese

military than the Iranian military. So I don't think they're getting very intimidated by what we're

doing here in Iran. We talked about this a little bit in a couple of the shows last week too.

And the, you know, the Japanese, South Koreans, like, okay, we were moving troops. We're also moving

weapon systems now to the Middle East. And also, you know, they are going to feel the energy

costs by even more acutely than we will. Because like, that's where they're getting their

energy from. Right. They're, they're, they get almost all their energy,

Japan certainly from abroad anyway, and a lot of it from the Gulf. So yeah, totally. No, so

they're losers on this. And again, we're consulted. Japan's kind of an important ally,

but I can make a decision on the Gulf based on Japan. And they wouldn't expect us to,

would they expect to get a phone call at some point, saying, hey, that heads up. And you know,

so again, just treating them as if we don't care what they say, which Trump doesn't, I suppose.

One point Bob makes that I hadn't really thought about is the Gulf states themselves. I mean,

they've sort of cast in with us, they've cast in with the Trump family. There's a lot of

deals. Let's just go on there, which have tried to cement that relationship in ways that are

not entirely, you know, legal or maybe or appropriate, but still, whatever you think of it,

it was a way of buying, I guess, getting them to invest with us. They have a huge stake in

out American investment. They're tourism at all. And our TV networks, you know, are golf

games. I know it's like, yeah. I mean, we're kind of like the junior partner to cutter in a lot of

ways like we're borrowing their used planes. And now they're getting pummeled. Some of them,

UAE, especially, and we're not protecting them much, apparently. And they've got to be thinking,

I don't know, the whole point of this was to make sure that big bad US was kind of behind us as

we cut all these corrupt deals and do our business dealings. And they've got to be thinking,

was that really worth it? I see all that reporting that MBS has been for this war and behind it,

which I guess must be true. But I don't think he speaks for the other Gulf states honestly. And I

wonder, even he's, I don't know what his foreign policy judgment is either. Anyway, so basically,

it's weakening us around the world. I think this is Bob's core insight that people, you know,

we look at these things so much in regional terms. It's understandable, obviously, and that is

the primary effect presumably with the degree to which right now, two weeks in, we look like we

don't know what we're doing. We went to war without a plan. It's not going well. We keep saying it's

going better than it is. We keep saying it's going to be over soon, but also we could be doubling

down and sending in ground troops. And people look at this as the US. This is the superpower.

If you're an ally, you're supposed to depend on. And if you're an enemy, you're supposed to be

scared of. And in both cases, we've eroded that. Just really quick on the Saudis. I don't, I don't

want to pretend to be an expert on this stuff. I did do some work a couple years ago for some

Saudi Arabian dissidents who were being targeted by the regime. So, you know, I have a decent amount

of familiarity with the politics there. I don't think it's crazy that there could end up being

a little bit of inconsistency or incongruity between what they want and what like UAE and

and others want. Right. Because the big article in the Times of the weekend about how Dubai

might ever recover from this. The types of people that moved to Dubai are not really keen. They

have plenty of money and resources. And it's not really worth the risk that a missile is going to

hit their high-rise condo. You know, to live there, there are other fancy places in the world

they can live. And so, the Saudi and Iran, you know, geopolitical kind of competition is a play

here. So, you know, I don't think it's impossible at MBS is, you know, kind of working back to

on it with the president's son-in-law, supportive of this. And that maybe the other Gulf states were

like initially kind of supportive and are starting to get weak meat. I don't think that's a crazy

development potentially. Just one other thing in the Kagan conversation in addition to one of the

strategic problems that Trump has created throughout the rest of the world is just like he now is

kind of at a decision point a little bit about what to do. I mean, I think that many of us

thought just based on Trump's past behavior that he was going to do what he's done before,

which is kind of like clear victory. There's a guy I follow online. He said, one of Trump's great

political superpowers is he can always just say, hey, we did it, you know, and he'll have a

base of supporters that will believe him and go along with him. That's the advantage of having a

cult of personality. And so, kind of a lot of folks I think assume that was going to happen here.

I think Bob points out that that is like getting a little tougher to do now, certainly then in

the 12-day war, you know, for various reasons. And, you know, potentially, you know, at some point

they're going to have to have kind of a shit or get off the pot decision here that they both

carry different types of consequences and ramifications. I'd just talk about that a little bit.

Yeah, that was the second big point, Bob, and I see that New York Times is making this point

this morning, too. It is, yeah, we're getting to a decision for it. I guess Trump can delay it,

but you pay a price for that, too. I mean, do we go in in a serious way and try to secure the

straight? I mean, the regional goal, remember, the big goal was regime change. You don't

only hear much about that anymore. Now, the real big goal would be securing the straight,

which is kind of pathetic because the straight was open until two weeks ago.

And getting rid of their, like, missile capabilities. I think that's the other thing that

we keep saying now. Right, but that we probably have done. So I've assumed you would cut and run

out as soon Taco and with some more logical thing for him to do from his own personal point of view,

which is always his main point of view. I kind of still think it's slightly more likely, I guess,

than really going all in with a reading expeditionary forces landing on the Iranian side of the

strait and all the risks that entails. And then basically, once you go that far, you can't really

just get out without caring about what happens in Iran. Do you get out the shorter regime change?

Do you have troops there on Iranian soil? And I mean, when the IRG still running the country,

I mean, there's so many risks and that's such an escalation. So I still am 60-40 that he doesn't

do that. Bob is more of 60-40 the other way, I would say. He just thinks Trump has gone so far

down the road of bellowing about how, you know, this is so important and fundamental and it's

going to be such a great victory that little harder from the back down. I don't know. You can't

make a judgment about the war till we know which of those decisions he makes and then what the

effects of each of those decisions is both are bad, both are bad. He could have bugged out honestly

after the first 48-72 hours and I think taken credit and I don't think it would have been more like

June and he could have done a huge amount of damage to the missiles and all this and he could have

just said, you know, we have made the world safer where the area safer, we weaken this horrible

machine. We killed a huge number of their top leaders. Thank you. Goodbye. Little harder to bug out

two weeks in but I still think he could and the damage though making us look weak would be real.

The damage we're getting involved obviously with ground troops and everything that implies

is a higher risk and more fundamental. What I said to Bob, I guess I did push him a little on what

do you really think he's going to stick with it? It's so risky and Bob then sort of played the

final card on that side which is nothing which is are we sure that Trump doesn't see the advantages

of having a war go on for a while in terms of his domestic authoritarian agenda.

The presidents have used wars to crack down on free speech and crack down on dissent and clearly

they were interested in doing that and they got elections coming up and the national security

sort of excuse could be used to do all kinds of things and that was the slightly dark note

that the conversation closed on. Yeah, I definitely think that you can't rule anything out on this

front. We're going to get a little bit more into what they're kind of threatening right now though

it's been a lot of empty threats on this front I think too. We should also just be honest about

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episode. Back to the strait really quick in the coalition of the unwilling that we're creating.

You mentioned the Germans who rebuffed Trump. Just kind of pulling this up here. Italy rejected

Trump. Spain rejected Japan. France's hesitant Norway. No. Canada. No. Australia. No. Germany

no. You mentioned UK's at the sporting care. Starmer kind of saying we're still looking at it.

We're going to give it another look. We'll see in two weeks. Netherlands, no response, South

Korea, no confirmation. That's a pretty big rebuke for the United States on this one. And I think

this week's to kind of what you and Bob were talking about about how there's no work at all done

on the front end to get these folks involved. And now Trump just thinks he can boss them around.

I assume maybe some of them might look at Trump and say, hey, instead of us, maybe you should be

calling your friends at the board of peace to keep the straight open. You know, what about

Kazakhstan? Can they help? You know, Belarus. Maybe, maybe those folks are in. And it's pretty

noteworthy. I like who knows how things go in a week or two. But just that even the Trump

administration is kind of hedging on now with the ask is kind of saying, well, maybe it'll just be

after hostilities and that we're asking for this help. And then meanwhile, Trump was on the phone

last night with the FT called him. And he's like back to making threats at NATO. It's just it's not

a lot of evidence that he's in control on the situation. No, absolutely. And they've marked

the Allies including especially the UK, which they have a suit. And I mean, he has gotten

away with mistreating them, if I could put it that way. For an awful long time is they look,

they still depend on us. They still want the US to be involved. They've all sucked up to Trump

in different ways. And pull their punches, let's say, you get the sense here that this is maybe

the moment of a look. I'm sorry. When they don't want to do it. They don't, as the German

defenders said, we wouldn't even want us for. I mean, you got the US Navy. If you can't open this,

we can't help you open this. And so again, but it's sickly with Trump and Hexas rhetoric. This is

the mightiest military force in the world. I was overwhelmed. We're intimidating. We're crushing.

We only fight tips, tweaks that we can crush. But hey, could you guys all help? And instead of

the number one country on that list for the other to eat or whatever was five or six countries

who was asking for China, how pathetic does that look? And if you're in Japan, you think,

really, wait a second, are we supposed to be like, he's inviting China to come into the

straight of four moves? I mean, I don't know. It's just the degree to which this sort of spiraling

out of control fiasco effect, I think, is what strikes me.

It's also in pretty big contrast to the whole, how long ago was it that there was a lot of high

minded foreign policy analysts talking about how Trump was changing the world order? And we're

going to do the Don Roe doctrine. And spheres of influence are all the rage now. And we're focused

on Greenland because of its strategic importance on our side of the globe. And it's like, well, okay,

well, how did this spheres of influence Don Roe doctrine turn out? Because now we're in a quagmire

in the Middle East and Trump wants help from people in Asia and Europe, and they're not going to

give it to them. I mean, the JD Vance is the world, if they would say what they really think,

would say, I guess, I mean, truthfully, I guess, look, hey, that all depended on us bossing around

little countries in the West and hemisphere, or maybe Greenland sort of in the West and hemisphere,

I guess. And, you know, and that's kind of what that whole Don Roe doctrine was. This is why

Vance, in a way, is more consistent if you're America first. You shouldn't get involved in

these things in the Middle East, but you can't really pull this off, you know, in the same way.

But Vance has been kind of quiet, hasn't even, you've been following it closely there.

JD has been quiet. Greenland is in the Western hemisphere, right? You have me for a second,

just like just because of the time. I don't know, I don't know, I'm confused.

Those maps are very misleading. That's curving. I was pretty good at the geography

B in third grade. I was like, I think that that's right. But, you know, your memory starts to fade.

Yeah, JD's been pretty quiet. Let's talk about the MAGA response to this a little bit. I don't

want to come back to economic stuff too. JD gave one kind of speech where he was doing like the

condescending JD thing where he was talking about how you guys want me to tell you what I really

said to the president in our private repartee in the, you know, in the skiff. And I would not do

that because it would be illegal. And, you know, he needs to get good guidance. And we're not the

same as the liberals that, you know, that tell everything to the New York Times. And so I know

it's like what he tried to do. He hasn't been, he hasn't been fighting on social media. You know,

I mean, I just, I think all you have to do is point to the gap between this and what happened

after the Alx Freddie and Renegade murders. I mean, Renegade got killed by a government agent.

And JD Vance was at the White House briefing room the next day, insulting the victim,

insulting the people that were concerned about it, insulting local law enforcement and talking

about how good and right it was that we had mass people in the streets like cracking down on free

services. So JV saw that as a political victory that he was in line with like, and he was arguing

with people on social media about it like, like, like a random troll. Not now. You know, simultaneously

to that in this intro right few of you and following Megan Kelly versus Mark Levin. Just the,

I just saw what are two tweets. It's not the most elevated, uh, discourse, I would say on

the internet. And that's saying that's that's saying. Well, we've got Mark Levin saying that Megan

Kelly is a shill and doesn't know anything in a stupid and I can Kelly said that Mark Levin has

a micro penis and as wrong Marjorie Taylor Green this morning said this. I wholeheartedly support

Megan Kelly telling the world that Mark Levin has a micro penis. It's the most deserved insults

and I don't care if it's vulgar. And Trump's gigantic defensive Levin only enrages the base more.

People are done all caps. Maga destroyed by micro penis Mark. So that was, uh, MTG. She's a little

bit sharper on the nicknames. Trump's nicknames are starting to taper off. But I think there's

something there from MTG, you know, how much do these people matter how much influence they have?

And we see in the polls, the Trump does have a cause of personality. There's a big group of people

who go along with him with whatever, but it's pretty telling that like Trump is out there complimenting

Mark Levin who was the never-Trumper was all in for on DeSantis. Was that a never-Trumper in the

sense of like voting for the Democrats, but within the Republican fighting, he was always anti-Trump.

Now Trump is complimenting on how great Levin is. The more mega folks, traditional mega folks

are attacking Levin and at least with MTG, Trump himself. JD is kind of hiding in the bushes

a little bit. And I think that just all tells you what you need to know about the weak political

position. And one dark reason why I think the mag is split could be more serious this time is

that the America first stuff dovetails with anti-Israel stuff, which dovetails with cement,

a cementic stuff. And gee, Mark Levin, what are the co-incents that going after him?

And Ben Shapiro for that. And Ben Shapiro, yeah. And those are the guys who on the one hand and on

the other hand, it's MTG, I guess, and Tucker Carlson and they're true. I mean, they are true

were America first-ish people. They also are pretty vitrallically against Israel and against

pretty into sort of conspiracy theories about Israel and the US and the Jews and the Jewish lobby.

And so this could go into a very dark place. But I think, unfortunately, there is support for that

and some chunk of mega world. Well, particularly among younger folks. And there's a little bit of

young old split. And I think you see also this is a strategic thing that what Megan and Tucker are

doing. I don't, you know, I can't get inside Megan's heart, but this doesn't all seem authentic

to me. And, you know, you just look at the polls. I don't have it in front of me. It's somebody

that a Gen Z poll of mega. And it's like a shocking number. I believe in Holocaust denialism,

believe that Jews are bad for the country. Like they also think that Muslims are bad for the country

by the way, but some other groups too. But I think that for people who don't follow this closely,

they might assume that like it's the older mega Republicans who are more

bigoted, right? Just because that's kind of like the stereotype, like older generations. And,

you know, but that's like not, not true. Actually, it's inverse. I feel like the numbers.

Our friend Nick Fuente is there. That guy you follow. You keep an eye on him, right? He's probably

following. I keep an eye on Nick Fuente. But Nick Fuente is a song on the again, like he's

intimately told on the Megan MTG side of this. Right. So it makes sense. You know,

I mean, you can have a really nasty stab in the back by BB kind of ruining mega,

ruining America first, dragging us into this war. It's the Jews. We're one step from that,

I mean, that narrative is out there already. Obviously, in Fuente's world, the question is,

could it permeate into sort of more political elected official world? I think we're a bit away from

that, but I don't know how far. Yeah, I agree. Hey, there. It's Ryan Seacrest for Safeway.

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Speaking of Tucker, see what he is a little monologneous weekend?

No, like I said, it's good that you keep an eye on this. You and Will Summer are really

indispensable for this year. It seems to me that Tucker is at the highest level of doing geopolitical

negotiations with our foes, so it is kind of important to check in on him. Unfortunately,

it's not just he's not just ranting from his main basement or whatever. Again, it's important,

I just want to say anytime I say something that Tucker said, I like to caveat,

Tucker has demonstrated himself to be just a liar and a fabulous, not just a conspiracy theorist.

He just lies and makes up stories, exaggerate stories to suit himself.

I assume the story is exaggerated. I guess it's what I'm starting up. He does a big monologue

about how the CIA says that he got a call from DOJ. I'm looking into his conversations he was

having with Iranian nationals before the war started and the CIA. Tucker says that the CIA has

hacked his phone. It's looking through his text messages and they had information about his

text messages. That led to serious people on the right saying that Trump was using him as a

useful way to get back channeling that information to the Iranians. Our old friend Mark Caputo

reported that that is not what happens. Trump was not doing 40 justice with Tucker when Tucker came

to visit him and tried to convince him not to be the war. But I don't know. I guess it's not

worthy if it's a lie that you have Tucker now doing a full frontal attack against the Trump

deep state because that could set up something down the line in 2028 for Tucker or some other

you know, vassal candidate for Tucker. And it's also noteworthy. It's true. I don't want to weigh it

like totally eliminate the possibility that there is some. I guess I think it would make sense

that the intelligence agencies would be spying on Tucker. I mean, he's talking to Putin. He's

talking to the Iranians apparently. He said that he's talking to the Iranians.

We're a war. I don't know. Do you think that's crazy? Well, especially given, I mean,

who knows which intelligence is given that Tulsi and Patel are running them. You know,

we have all the normal constraints on spying on American citizens or whatever metadata,

all those stuff we want to do. I want to do better because they were actually legal constraints.

And one had to think about those things. I want to assume they're all gone. So who knows? I agree.

I really thought about this. Do you got it up? Do you agree to which you have a Tucker,

MTG, younger, grouper, anti-Israel, anti-Semitic, America first thing that could build up on the right?

I don't know. Is that trivial in Republican primaries in 28? Is it right now? It's presumably 10

or 15 percent against, you know, a JD Vance marker would be a, you know, field. But I don't know.

It could be 25, 30 percent. It could be. It's trivial as long as Trump is around because of the

cult of personality element. Just like, I just, you know, I don't want to overstate like the

degree of the splintering. I think that it's at an elite level and at a younger,

activist level more than among the electorate. I'm afraid it was talking to you about this. But if

you look at the, the internals of the polls about Iran, it's kind of strange. Like people who say

I'm a mega Republican are more supportive than people who just say I'm a Republican, right? Because

like if you say you're a mega Republican, like that's basically like saying, like I'm part of

a lifestyle brand that I support anything Donald Trump does. So like, it'll be interesting to see,

like assuming Trump leaves and, you know, and there's a lot of potential if stands or buts. But like

in theory, I think that if there was a vacuum on the right, I think it would be a very significant

force to talk around TG wing. And I think that the idea that he's laying the groundwork

that the Trump government went after him, I'm not saying I think Tucker's going to run for

president would be a favorite or anything. But like, to me, that is laying the groundwork for

like an actual whatever pincer tack on on the Trump part of MAGA at some level. So anyway,

we'll keep monitoring that. Just really quick while we're talking about crazy right wing stuff,

I do think it's important for our listeners also to just be a little vigilant about,

I don't even know if I would call this crazy left wing stuff, but crazy conspiracy stuff that

gets into the left pipeline, including, for example, this weekend, the idea that BB was dead,

I had several regular people, normals in my life, not, you know, not randoms on the internet,

like texting me, asking me is BB really dead. They had been following influencers that were like

doing a pruder film style, like looks at these videos that BB put out that did look kind of weird,

I would say, but like, you know, kind of saying you had a sixth finger when there's just a shadow

or, you know, doing deep analysis about his coffee, like why it didn't spill.

I just want everybody like, if you're following an influencer that's doing a frame by frame on why

BB's coffee didn't spill, like, I think you should just be a little bit skeptical about the material

that they're providing. And I know, I know we have some legitimate complaints about the MSM

these days, but like, there's a reason why there's, you know, editors out there and some of those

outlets. So I don't, BB's alive. Hey there, it's Ryan Seacrest for Safeway. It is stock up savings time,

now through April 2nd, spring in for store wide deals and earn four times of points, look for

in store tags to earn on eligible items from smart water, healthy choice, cotton now,

whole in the spring, Red Bull, St. James, Tillamook, and Special K, then clip the offer in the app

for automatic event-long savings, stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top

of savings when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions

apply, see website for full terms and conditions. Do you want to talk about the hill first or the

economic stuff? Why don't we talk about the hill? Then we'll go back to the economy. I saw this from

Punchbowl this morning has jumped out to me. And I think it does kind of relate to the conversation

we're having about Maga and the factaining on this. Punchbowl is the capital hill,

insider newsletter rag. There it is. The White House Pentagon and Congress leaders have begun

talks about a supplemental funding bill for the Iran War. We've had several sources suggest

the package may carry a price tag of 100 billion or more. Lawmaker see this as potentially the

last must-pass bill of the year. It's March 16th, isn't it March? Aren't we in March? And they

may try to attach their own costly proposals to it as well. Wow. And I just think that there's a lot

to unpack there about, you know, it kind of relates to what Kagan was talking about about how they're

like planning for a more extended conflict that they don't have. I think I don't know. It will

create questions to the Democrats on what to do about this. I think, you know, talks about just how

neutered capital hill is. I mean, could have there been less powerful, same-party leaders in

the history of Congress and Thune and Johnson that they're like, this is the only thing we might do

all year? Anyway, so go ahead and riff on any of those elements. Two obvious points. Hey,

what is as Trump launched the war? Some of us thought, gee, well, before the war, some of us thought

Trump should get approval if he's going to do this. As he was threatening to do it, he did it. We

saw, gee, Trump should get approval now that he's begun to do it. At least there should be a war

powers act type vote 30 day, 60 day cut at deadline. And now we're talking, the Marine Expeditionary

Force. I think the 31st view is heading towards the Gulf. The series talk about the war's not

letting up. TagSafe boasts that it's more intense each day. You know, literally, we're now going to

fight what weeks, months with no congressional authorization or no even threshold appropriations,

just nothing. I mean, no testimony instantly from them to the hill on the hill either, except in

a couple of secret sessions with some committee leaders. It's a new level and just cutting them out

entirely. And the Republican leadership is obviously totally pathetic. And at some point,

it's one of these people who's allegedly privately very concerned. The Roger Wickers of the

world are all these characters. I think I say something. I think I could seeably vote for a war

powers translation type thing. I mean, probably not for a while, but it is pretty astonishing.

How did the Democrats handle this? Traditionally, the Democrats have even when they

opposed wars, like, let's sell this in Iraq, like, there would be Democratic senators who

opposed the war, but they did, they would vote for the funding because you didn't want to

see any anti-trubs. You don't want to make sure the troops had the resource if we're going to be in

the war. I don't like, I don't, I don't feel like this is that situation, particularly on this

first vote, right? Especially if you're not going to have a war powers vote. I feel like the Democrats

have to be aligned just a hard no on this. A hard no with a caveat that the hard no should be

obviously will appropriate funds for 30 days to make sure our people can exit this area safely.

Or we will consider appropriating funds if if a there's a 60 day deadline, b there's a plan

submitted, see, you know, there are things they can do to make it they have to be better

back with a little bit of probably not to undercut the troops who are actually in harm's way.

But I think, you know, you can easily pretty easily say 30 days 60 days to get them out of

harm's way or let Trump come back in 30 days and say he really needs the money to this case

for keeping them in harm's way. But yeah, I think it's pretty hard no on extending the war. I mean,

he's fought for 16, 17 days now already. I mean, I think the Democrats just have to say no blank

check for ground troops in the Middle East. That's what I think. I mean, I, I don't disagree with

those caveats you offered for the behind the scenes negotiations. I just think that the Democrats

need to be a little bit better at having the top line message be absolutely not. I don't think

you see some Democrats who are good on this Rubens guy goes and good he was on recently because

Murphy there've been some others. But I just I feel like every time I see Chuck Schumer talk,

he's like starting with the caveats. And it's just like give me the top line, which is that

this was war they didn't come to us to support it's illegal like they did not come to Congress

for approval at the beginning. And they haven't offered a rationale and it's been a total

shit show. And we're against the details can come up after that. I totally agree with you

about the top line and the need to be very firm on that and sharp on that. And I think the phrase

that maybe does that is end the war. End the war is not the same as undercutting the troops or

a backward looking you should have come to us, which is Schumer spends too much time talking

about, you know, just end the war. It's not working. We're risking more the war. We dig

or we deep the ticker. The deeper we dig this hole. We dig. Yeah, stop digging this hole.

The digler we deep. Exactly. Whatever we dig. Yeah. So I think end the war is a good thing

that they need to say over and over. And I think that's and sadly that's honestly their view.

I take it. It's honestly my view. You know, so to say it.

On economic consequences, you do hear, especially from the more ra ra folks about the war

and about the way that we've annihilated the Iranian capabilities, you know,

when it comes to the economic part, there's a lot of, oh, this is a short term thing, you know,

like this is a shock. It's going to take a few months. Like it'll be, you know, we'll be back

down to normal by the end of the year. I kind of wonder if any of those people were awake during

the COVID inflation situation, which, you know, spiraled out of control and ended the Biden presidency

basically and, you know, it happened years after we already had the job and like, you know,

it's supply chains. Like the stuff just doesn't remedy itself overnight. You shared this.

It was on CNBC. I believe Jeff Curry from Goldman Sachs. There's a commodities analyst.

And I thought it was pretty compelling. I just want to play it for everybody.

This is not just a disruption oil. It's gas. It's fertilizers. It's metals. It's petrochemicals.

The list goes on and on. And then you've disrupted supply chains in countries all over the world.

The ships are in the wrong places. The insurances have been cancelled. You've taken the pressure

out of the fields that you've shut in in places like Saudi Arabia or Iraq or even in the UAE.

I can just the list goes on and on. The damage is going to take months to unwind. But I want to

bring it to the immediate. There is no policy response that can stop the succent and crude none.

And yes, you've paid this 400 million barrel headline. Flow rate is what matters. You know,

the maximum sustainable flow rate is 2 million barrels per day. So 400, that'll take them

200 days to get that out. And you put that in the context of a disruption of, you know,

let's net it out of this. It's got to be somewhere around 18 million barrels per day right now.

You're just a minuscule in terms of offsetting it. So again, there's not many options here.

It's like about the strategic oil reserve offset choice there. I think you should listen to those

guys. It's like, even if he did, you know, take the fork in the road out now. I mean, that's months and

months and months and 200 days, you know, to get it back to where it was. Right. I mean, even that fork

in the road, he was only has some face-saving, you know, cease-fire negotiations. So we're probably

a week or two from that. But yeah, I guess the other part I'd make is just two weeks is a pretty

long time. Four weeks is twice as long as two weeks. Eight weeks is four times as long as two

weeks in terms of the disruption, right? I mean, it is the COVID-19 situation where yes, you can

manage these things as a short-term spike. But I think that's what the markets are telling us. They're

looking at it and thinking, you know, this could be, you know, much longer. God knows, I can't really

judge it. And I've talked to a couple of economists and they're a little cautious because these things

are pretty hard to judge in real time. But the economy was slowing anyway. And I've got to wonder

six months from now, when people look back at this first quarter of 2026, they say,

economy was slowing, big oil shock recession. I'm just put a finer point about it because,

you know, sometimes you're following this and it's like, oh, there's the one day it goes up and

goes down. And, you know, like you can be overly responsive to just, you know, sort of movements in

the market. I just pulled this up like the Brent oil barrel price. On February 17th, so one month

ago, it was 66 bucks. Right now it's 101. And like that's like not quite double, but a very

significant increase that is, you know, it has like just tons of ramifications through an economy

that, as you mentioned, was already kind of shaky. Like, you know, all of the jobs numbers, there's a,

you know, they've been doing the corrections, you know, looking back at the last few months,

those like turns out there are fewer jobs created than we thought. It's a dicey situation.

And I guess that's why Carolyn Levin just posted that Ben Shapiro praised Trump's strike as

the single bravest foreign policy move of my lifetime, because it is pretty brave to just

absolutely hammer your own domestic economy. And, you know, the rationale for your presidency

on behalf of a project internationally that it doesn't have like a clear outcome.

I can just take some courage to do that, I guess, some way.

Great, reckless is one step over from brave.

Half step at the half step.

Hey there, it's Ryan Seacrest for Safeway. It is stocked up savings time. Now,

through April 2nd, spring in for store wide deals and earn four times of points,

look for in store tags to earn on eligible items from Goldfish, Keyblur, the Ridos, all.

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along savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings

when you shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply

see website for full terms and conditions. So Brendan Carr was out talking about threatening

the network TV licenses for supposed misinformation about the Iran war. Trump posted that media

companies wrongly reporting on the war should be charged with treason.

There's some death penalty threats for journalists wrongly reporting on the war.

I'm not shaking in my boots personally on that one, but it is something that the president

said, which I've last week, the Secretary of War. It's talking about how excited he was for

CNN to be taken over by his friend. I mean, the degree to which they're trying to manipulate

the media crack down on free speech is pretty stark. Try as the keyword there. I mean,

they've had some success, obviously, in the private sector with the purchases and the takeovers

from the Ellison's. The using the force of government power has been not that effective so far.

Well, I actually have a caveat in that, but why don't you go first?

Well, just I mean, the next no Kings protest is in just under two weeks now. They tried to

describe the one in October. Remember, that was trying to govern shutdown. So that was the

militants, the rabid militants. I think I used the word terrorists. So we'll be out there demonstrating

anti-American and stuff. I take it part of the no Kings protest will be anti-war protest.

And in any case, there'll be other anti-war protests. I think there you will have real

Joe McCarthyite or 1919, depending on what his story is. This has happened before,

where people, you know, presidents who are fighting wars, label everyone who's opposing them,

but certainly anyone who's protesting them. As, you know, on the side of the your enemy and

kind of on the side of terrorism, I suppose, since Iran is a sponsor terrorism on the side of

and just treasonous and stuff. It's been pretty ineffectual so far. It's generally was for

the first no Kings protest, the attempts to either sell that or to weaponize it mostly.

There's been, you know, they've been executive orders and attempts to begin to lay the groundwork

for really going after people, but I don't know where to real war now. And so on the one hand,

not quaking my boots, but on the other hand, taking it a little more seriously than I would have

just month ago. Like there's a ton of evidence out there that Trump and this administration has

had success intimidating people in the private sector. It's having a conversation over the weekend

about this, about somebody who's working on projects that two years ago would have been approved

for, you know, that are in the politics space, news documentary type stuff that's just like they

don't want to do it. Like it's just not worth the risk of, you know, backlash from Trump

and these Hollywood studios. So like, there's been a chilling effect. Like there's been success in

that. Like the most robust effort that they had to try to silence people directly. It was over

Jimmy Kimmel when Brendan Carlos basically going to the local stations and saying, like, I'm going

to threaten your licenses. And you would think that those, they would be less able or willing to

to handle this kind of economic assault from our government than, you know, Disney or whatever,

some big multinational corporation. And that didn't work, right? Like it worked for a couple

days. Like he was off the air for a couple days. And then, and then, you know, everybody pushed

back. So we'll see. I guess I just think it's important to note that like while he's making these

threats, they've been pretty empty threats in the past. But, you know, I think also just looking at

it more globally. And this was the Hungary playbook. And it took time, you know, for Orban to kind of

take over these various companies. Trump made a post on true social that's like simultaneously,

like intimidating and mockable, you know, which is, it's a meme talking about how he's reshaped

the media. And at the top, it's like gone. You know, and there's some things that are really like

serious, PBS defund it. You know, but then it's like joy, read and Terry Moran fires. It's like,

okay, I don't know. I was poor Terry man. He's been on the show. He's doing great on sub-stag. But it's

like, okay, you know, Chuck Todd out at NBC. It's like, there's some of these things. And then the

reforms, it's like Trump is doing that interview is, you know, news bias. Onblood's been at CBS. So,

you know, Disney ends key DEI practices. It's like, there's like, it's this mix of like things that

have happened that have changed in ways that the media has accommodated itself to the Trump regime

that's chilling. And then it's tied in with other kind of silly stuff in Trump's like personal

beef with people on the stories that he watches on TV. But like, that took time, it took time and

hungry. I don't know. I have two minds about it. On the one hand, it's like it took time in hungry.

And there is a lot of power and danger in government censorship and control of media. On the other

hand in this brave new world, like reality kind of does end up finding a way, not in the way that we

want is like the old Jurassic Park life finds a way. I don't know. I mean, their efforts to intimidate

the media into silence over the Iran war don't seem to be working based on the polls. So I don't

which side of that do you kind of follow? I tend to come down on the optimistic side of it with

the caveat that people need to fight. And I do think, you know, the merger with parent. I mean,

this is where people have to have a, if I could use a stupid term that I don't like, normally,

a holistic view of what's happening. You need to fight on many, many, many fronts. The merger

stuff, which is a business story and not one that I personally pay much attention to and that people

in the media sphere, that are thing, you know, unlike direct intimidation of Jimmy Kimmel, whatever.

But it's kind of important if they're only allowing mergers to trump friendly people.

Oh, that part is super. Yeah, it's really important.

They're so chaotic and so mockable and such jackasses. But they are pulling a lot of levers at once,

I guess, is the way I would say it. And we need, we, if I can say, we, the democratic opposition

smallty that needs to be alert to that and pulling whatever counter levers that once it can,

too, you know, I mean, it can't just be sort of the courts work. I really like that one. And

it needs to be an aggressive response on all fronts. I agree. And I want to caveat my caveat,

just also, which is with technology, the degree to which reality can find a way might change.

You know, I think that in some ways, you know, this stuff is all like progressing and changing.

It's like a river and, you know, the 80s crackdowns by fascist governments on, on media. We're

like very effective because there are so few media outlets, right? I feel like it was happening,

you know, kind of the Soviet sphere of influence, right? You know, right now, like, and obviously,

the disinformation was effective enough to get Donald Trump elected twice. It's not like nothing.

But like right now, there also is other information is getting out. It's just like question of whether

it's getting to people, right? Like it's different than the type of censorship we've seen in the past

from fascist regimes. And, you know, eventually, again, like Trump lost his second election,

and right now he's losing politically. So I just think that it's important to deal with that reality.

But as the technology changes with AI and, you know, these guys controlling TikTok,

it's controlling the big tech companies, you know, I think the threats get much, much greater.

And like to that point, I'm not talking about some immigration stuff too. There's a federal

case in Oregon where ice officers said under, oh, it's something we've kind of, we've known already.

But number one is that they have the daily arrest quotas. But seconds that they're using the

Palantir app elite for like mass surveillance and targeting. And again, those have been watching

us have known this because like fucking little Greg Bavino is like taking his phone up and

putting in people's faces and telling them that he was putting their face to a facial recognition app.

But that technology is advancing very quickly. And the government now using this with impunity,

targeting citizens, not that it'd be okay for them to do it, targeting undocumented people with

they're doing it, targeting citizens, protesters, people that are here legally, people that are

suspected of being here legally is pretty chilling. I mean, libertarians have been upset for a

long time. I thought excessively, but not crazily about the 702 program. I don't even, you know,

the NSA, it's not even understand all that stuff. But pretty carefully monitored and restricted

actually uses with the federal government thought they wanted to understand some conversations with

foreign nationals like Tucker Carlson with Iranians and or Putin. But careful in how they

getting Pfizer warrants, all that stuff. We are now totally blown by any of that kind of stuff.

We're blown by the notion that we should have a debate about whether, well, maybe I shouldn't

be allowed to do this. The Congress, the United States, could actually pass a law saying they can't

have such a register of terrorists. Well, I want to ask you a question on the Republicans in Congress,

would we discuss it from it up? I mean, did they just endlessly go on? I just no point to

enough of them say, wait a second, that you really begin to get a crumbling. We've seen sort of

hints of it. And of course, we've solved been ultimately disappointing, I think so far. But

a little bit of crumbling in the, in the ability for him to hold 50 Republican senators and

218 Republican House members. And again, it was so infuriating, of course, is it would take a

handful of them, right? To say no, about a whole bunch of areas. You know, look up to the midterms,

who knows how to be, how do people act when they're in the minority? How might they act in the

Senate if it's really a one vote situation rather than three? Right. Maybe you see some difference.

I don't know. I just think it comes back to the short-term incentives. Like this is like the

massive primary is interestingly in Sam talked about this last week, right? It's like we still now

10 years in. No one has really challenged Trump directly and won and survived. The caveat to that

would be the Georgia guys, Kampin Raffinsberger. And so all credit to them, honestly, but like the

state elections are a little bit different. At the federal level, House or Senate, you know,

there hasn't really been anybody. You know, everyone that has challenged is either retired or one

run Quixotic primaries like was Cheney did, you know, nobody is really like dug in. And so the

nasty primary in Kentucky, I think is very important and a function point on that. But I just think

it's like they decided it's not worth it. They said it's not worth it. And look at this, the primary

in Louisiana, for example, so I get the TV ads for Bill Cassidy and Julia Lutlow. And you would think

that Bill Cassidy was the biggest Trump fan in the universe if all you're doing is just watching

basketball and seeing the ads and not getting any news otherwise. And that Julia Lutlow,

the Trump endorsed MAGA candidate is, you know, Bill Crystal, some woke, never Trump to switch.

Like if you're just watching the TV ads, that's what you'd get the sense of. As long as that's

the case, that they feel like they need to have the Trump halo to survive. I don't I don't expect

to see a lot of this perch. My question back to you on the health stuff. You were out early on

the Democrats needed to be offer a middle ground on the DHS shutdown and just saying, hey, look,

we're in a fully fun FEMA TSA, these other elements, anything else that's related to domestic

terror threats, et cetera. They've done that, but I don't, I haven't really like done a big pressure

campaign on it. I wouldn't say, where do you think this stands? I mean, it's pretty crazy that

DHS is still like not funded, given the state of affairs. I actually got a call from a member of

Congress. My staff showed me your tweets and yeah, I want you to know, we do agree with you that we

we're for no additional funding for ICE and Border Patrol. We're fine with funding the rest of it.

So you need to make that point a little more emphatically in my public judgment. And this person

said, yes, well, we're beginning to rose to the Lord did have actual legislation. She's in

leadership in the house. Patty Smith is, I don't know, the, uh, Smith. All right, all right.

Patty, by the way, I was just a singer. Yeah, I know. Thanks a lot of church there.

Patty Murray, the appropriations. I think ranking member in the Senate asked for you that it was

consent to do that actually last week. The Republicans blocked it. And this member of Congress said,

we've had some internal debate. Some people thought we had more leverage. If we kept the whole DHS

closed, I said, come on, really, that's not, it's negative leverage at this point with TSAs.

And this person said, yes, that we were this, you'll see this week, we will make clear. Our position

is we will not give additional funds to ICE and Border Patrol apps that the kinds of reforms

they've demanded. We want to give these other funds and it's the Republicans who will prevent

you. And I think it's a pretty easy argument to make. It's a true argument. And they just need

to really hammer at home this week and they say they're going to. So we'll keep an eye on that.

All right, final topic. There's a candidate that I want to highlight out in America.

I sometimes have said some pretty negative things about Alabama on this podcast and our Alabama

listeners. So I appreciate have not always appreciated by, you know, stereotyping of Alabama,

the use of the word Alabama as a slur. We have a candidate here that I think is interesting.

His name is Jamel J. Brown. He's a pastor and an influencer who is running for governor of

Alabama. Now Tommy Tuberville is running on the other side. I think that's an uphill battle.

And so you got to have some creative thinking. And on the podcast, I've been discussing how in

red states, we need heterodox Democrats. You know, I don't, they don't need to be squishy moderates,

but they've got to stake out some different points of view. And here's Jamel Brown's list of 20

executive orders that he is going to sign on day one to put the people of Alabama first.

Legalize and tax marijuana for personal use. Part in nonviolent offenders and state prisons,

eliminate state tax on groceries. That's good. Legalize and tax the lottery. Okay.

$3,000 stimulus checks for those of you under 100k. I don't, it's a little Keynesian for me,

but okay. Restore law and order in crime ridden cities. All right. We're pivoting a little bit

to the right here on on law and order issues. Put parents back in charge of education,

people like that. Number eight, legalize sex stores. Number nine, bring prayer back into schools.

It's an interesting pairing, but I like it. I don't, you know,

I'd separate some church of state and all that, but I do think that the Democrats,

reaching out to religious people is important. Legalize sex stores and bring prayer

back into schools. Number 10 of us now have a businesses for the Chamber of Commerce class.

Eleven pay raise for all state employees. Public sector. That's nice. Number 12,

make my Gumriestress. Number 12, make my Gumriestrip club city.

No, I don't know what that entails, exactly. But I'm interested.

Is that a thing you could be like in some cities, sanctuary cities,

other cities, or a club city, sanctuary, sanctuary cities. We should call this camp. He's

very accessible. I think on line, I think we can just direct he and him and ask him what exactly

is that? I've never been to Montgomery, for example, and I might consider it. Now,

I know I'm not a strip club guy myself, but just as a cultural thing, just as a curiosity,

make my community a strip club city. Three months grace period for utility bills. That's good

to support our veterans. Anyway, there goes more. I like it. I should say that Doug Jones is also

in the governor's race. And I think is the more prominent candidate for the nomination. And I

don't want to dis endorse Doug or say anything negative about him. But I just, I think that what

Jamel is offering is something different. He's trying something. And I want to make sure I'm

highlighting that. So that's all. Do you have any thoughts on the Jamel Brown candidate to see?

It'll be great when Doug, I know that some of you do, when Doug is a serious kind of

earnest guy, when Doug gets asked today, you know, after people watching that, maybe they

saw the original tweet by just out of the discover I was rivaled, but maybe after they,

on the day after they watch the show, Doug gets asked, where are you on making Montgomery a strip club

city? And then it becomes the biggest issue in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Alabama.

And a lot of times, particularly in presidential races, the niche candidates bring an issue to the

floor, you know, and the more mainstream candidates co-opt it, you know, because they see the popularity.

And maybe that could be making Montgomery a strip club city. Okay, Bill Crystal, thank you.

I don't even know what to expect for tomorrow's show. So we're going to see. It's going to be fun,

I think, but it's going to be a little surprise for folks to stick around for that. We have

the next level podcast also comes out on Tuesday. So a lot of a lot of material. And then we're

in Austin later. So Dallas and Austin, Dallas Wednesday night, Austin Thursday. We got a surprise

guest in Dallas Wednesday. That'll be your Thursday podcast. Then Friday, it will be me with a hangover

after a night out in Austin with somebody. So that's the schedule for the week. It's going to be

pretty good. Bill, thank you so much for doing it. And the tickets are still available in Austin,

the volick.com slash tickets. That's the biggest venue we've ever played. We already sold over a

thousand tickets. So it's awesome. How do you keep going? But if you want to pop in, go check us out.

Anything else, Bill? If we can kind of be kind of the strip clip city, we need to do a

little work about there, obviously. You know, just don't you think? I'm not that I would go,

I'm just make that clear. It just just absolutely as a kind of gesture of rewarding, you know,

freshly outside the box, thinking, you know, totally agree. Montgomery, we'll see you in 2027.

Everybody else, we'll crystal see you back here Monday. Everybody else will see you tomorrow. Bye.

I just want to see my come re in the rain.

The Boark podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.

Hey, there. It's Ryan Seacrest for Safeway. It is stock up savings time now through April 2nd.

Spring in for store wide deals and earn four times of points. Look for in store tags to earn

on eligible items from smart water, healthy choice, cotton now, hole in the spring, Red Bull,

St. James, Tillamook, and Special K. Then clip the offer in the app for automatic event

long savings. Stack up those rewards to save even more. Enjoy savings on top of savings when you

shop in store or online for easy drive up and go pick up or delivery. Restrictions apply,

see website for full terms and conditions. It's tax season and by now we're all a bit tired of

numbers. But here's an important one you need to hear. $16 billion. That's how much money and

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