Nick Valdez looks at 4 different commodities. Oil, Bitcoin, Natural Gas and ,,,, WHEAT! The markets are correcting but for different reasons. A little greed, a little bit of political actions and of course market forces reacting naturally!
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Transcript
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I gave you this in January 27th.
And if we look at January 27th, we went along on oil all the way back in January and I gave you the call.
We put this in the discord, we have a link down below.
January 27th, I said keep an eye out on USO.
I'll explain what this means in a second.
Now January 27th, these shares were trading for $8.84.
You zoom into today, they're trading for over $20.
And in fact, spiked above $30 today.
And USO just stands for the United States oil fund.
And when we made the bet back in January 27th, this was trading for $75.
Now it is trading for $114.
And the way our bet works is we were just saying by July 17th, this would be trading for at least $105.
And you can see right now we're almost $10 above that price.
Which is why this USO option is not trading for $22 when it was only trading for a dollar in change.
In today's video, we're going to look at oil, we're going to look at natural gas, we're going to look at Bitcoin.
And then I'm going to give you my fourth commodity trade.
This is where I'm putting my oil profits into.
And it's all part of the same thesis.
Now you see the markets pushed it down.
So why is oil declining?
Reason number one is going to be greed.
If you look at this, this trader took a huge risk on oil.
He did a 20 x long, enter in at $101.
And so you can see right here, it looks like he got one of these dips right here, got in at 101.
You can see it counts with compounding interest and it's gone.
Reason number two, we're seeing a slight correction in oil is going to be what Trump is doing.
So Trump is reviewing a set of options to lower oil prices as soon as today amid their historic surge.
His options include restricting US exports of oil, also intervening in oil futures markets,
and also waving some federal taxes.
You can also lift requirements under the Jones Act, which said domestic fuel must only move on US flagship.
So now opening up more ships to transport oil.
Now the White House is saying they're worried that surge in oil prices will hurt US businesses and consumers.
And he's reportedly considering the mid term election implications of higher oil prices.
And this is breaking from today.
Now like I said, we gave you this call in the discord at a dollar and change.
I would then put out a short and it was only trading at $3.45.
Now because we had doubled our money by that point, we did take some profits at three.
We took some profits at six.
We took some profits at nine.
And now we're holding the rest for a moon bag.
But there's other reasons why we're seeing oil correction.
This is why we're going to be rolling our profits into this fourth commodity.
I'm going to tell you in a second.
Now this right here, this is oil WTI.
This is crude oil prices.
And right now we are seeing a topping tail on this chart.
Now we told you about the bottoming tail.
Bottoming tail is a bullish signal.
A topping tail is a bearish signal.
And the way you would need this topping tail to work.
This WIC cannot take less than 75% of the area.
And you can see right now it is, it is well above 75%.
So this candle body has to be in the lower quarter of the entire length.
In a topping tail.
This is a garasol away pointing this out.
Topping tail also gave us our silver top.
If you look right here, he was short silver.
A lot of people are disagreeing with him.
I made a comment about silver going down.
I think I made a prediction of 125.
We end up going to 122.
You would have thought I was trying to spit in people's babies faces.
People are very mad at me when I said silver looking like he was going to top.
This right here is a topping tail.
You can see the WIC is more than 75% of the entire length right here.
And no candle would be able to close above this range.
Got scary one day.
But then after that boom, look at that huge move to the downside.
And so right now oil is creating this topping tail.
Still a few hours in the market.
So you know, just keep an eye out on oil.
Chart number two is Bitcoin that we're going to do net gas.
And then we'll look at my fourth secret commodity here.
Bitcoin is showing a lot of influence.
I have three indications saying this might play out.
So we have our long bull flag here.
Now this is a floppy flagpole.
You know, this is a droopy flag by all indications.
And don't always wanted to go below 50% right now.
You know, this body right there is right there at the cusp.
Right now it is still looking good.
So we do have the bulls on the upside.
We keep talking about this tealine.
This is just simply the previous all time high for Bitcoin back in 2021.
You go back to where we're at today.
You zoom in.
Look at that.
Also, Bitcoin's flirting with the 200 week moving average right at this area.
When you zoom into the one hour, you see look at that.
Boom, try to hit against it.
Try to beat against it.
Was not able.
Maybe keeping out on this parallel rate.
The rest of the flagpole pennant here.
Let's go ahead and do the target.
Like I said, there's three things pointing to this price.
The bad side about a bullish flag is the longer it goes, the less bullish it is.
Because your breakout is just going to keep lowering and lowering and lowering.
But maybe it needed to wait until this point.
Let me tell you why.
Look at this area right here.
So we're going to go back to the say three day here.
This area right here.
This was really, really close to where we found support after we dumped.
When we started losing those moving averages.
And if you look, it also goes straight across right here.
Candle bodies.
The wicks hitting right here at this range.
We're going to throw down the horizontal line.
But right here, zoom back in.
Boom, you can see it acted as support right there.
Boom, acted as support right there.
This is really cool.
If you go to Bitcoin's, you know, big, big run up in 2024, Donald Trump got elected.
Slowly started to go down.
Slowly started to head down.
Look at this area right here.
So really, really close to these candle bodies.
Wicked down to here.
Wicked down to here.
One, two, three, four, five different times.
And last thing on the Bitcoin chart, you even have this potential trend line coming to a point, you know, maybe right around that range.
So, you know, keeping out on this trend line right here.
Keep an eye out on this area as a point of resistance.
You got the flagpole.
You got this trend line.
You got to just the previous support.
So now it's going to be resistance.
And the dollar amount here is going to be around 81, 300.
So if the bulls can take over, that's going to be an area I would be paying attention to.
All right, trade number three is going to be net gas.
Now we are in some net gas options as well.
Net gas hitting against this 200 day moving average.
You can see rejecting off of this.
So this is wicked up this high.
Got rejected.
But net gas is also part of the Iranian story.
Everyone's talking about the straighter homoos and its impact on oil.
A lot of people might not realize a lot of net gas flows there as well.
Around one fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade transits the straighter homoos in 2024.
So the straighter homoos is a critical oil choke point.
It's also a critical net gas choke point.
Now the net gas ticker that we're trading is you in G and we're doing some $20 calls.
And our expiration date is also July 17th and we got in on the straight at 29 cents.
And right now it's trading at 77 cents over deep in profit.
But might go ahead and keep most of this one open.
I think this one can still have room to run.
And so now it's time for the fourth commodity trade.
What am I looking at?
That's going to be wheat.
And we're going to be trading wheat through the tecririum wheat fund ETVs.
That's ticker WET wheat.
And if you look at the price of wheat, wheat is down historically.
Wheat is way lower than what I mean is it is very, very cheap.
This is a representing bushels of wheat.
And you can see what is this spike right here?
This is the previous geopolitical conflict.
This is Russia Ukraine.
So we can act very emotionally just like silver, just like oil.
Maybe even more emotional because if you just think of the implications.
People don't want to talk about starvation or any kind of crisis event.
And so this one's going to have a lot of emotion behind this trade.
And we don't want to trade with emotions.
We want to trade into the emotions.
We want to trade when the market's using a motion.
And similar to net gas, it is coming up against a pretty important expenditure moving average.
We got the EMA 100 up right here.
And this is the 100 week moving average.
You can see that we're going to be able to do that.
This is the 100 week moving average.
You can see it rejected.
It rejected.
It rejected.
If this uses it as support, wheat is going to go crazy folks.
So keep an eye out on wheat.
And the position I'm looking at is actually down today.
That's going to be wheat $25 calls.
And this is also going to be $717 expiry.
I can walk you through the process here.
So we're just going to click one.
And I always recommend use limit order.
So you can see it's trading on 133.
They're saying my 135 will fill.
You can play with this.
You can see.
All right.
130 will not fill 135 high fill likelihood.
I could say here and you know, play with the two pennies there.
We'll just do $1.35 hit review order.
And that's just going to cost us 135.
So you're paying for the ability to buy 100 shares.
So there you go folks.
Keep an eye out on oil, net gas, Bitcoin and wheat.
It's going to be a very, very volatile week in month.
I'm DZ4 Discover crypto.
And I'll see you in your commodities at the top.
And if you want to trade with us, join us in our trading discord.
We put everything in there.
We have our take profits.
We have our stop losses.
We have our entry points.
We have how much leverage.
We tell you how to trade.
This is in the trading signal calls in the discord and the trading chat.
We're very active in there for answering your questions.
But in both of these channels on the top, you'll see pinned messages.
Click pin messages.
And then you can see our free crypto future trader manual.
Look at that.
It'll tell you how to enter in these trades.
Get you the ability and the confidence to enter these trades in with authority.
And again, all of this is free.
All you have to do is go into the discord.
Give us your trading UID.
Put it in here.
We'll confirm it.
And then after that, you get access to all of these channels.