Bitcoin Bears Are Calling a Major Crash, The Data Says THIS | James Check | BFM239

Bitcoin dropped from a peak of $126,000 to around 60K and the critics are out in full force

calling it a bubble yet again.

But is this a market collapse or does the data actually tell us a completely different

story?

In this episode, I'm joined by James Check.

In a market, saturated with clickbait and panic, he's become the go-to analyst for

anyone who actually cares about the data.

Removing past the Doomer headlines to look at what the coins are actually doing, regarding

of what the talking hats on the news or X are screaming.

And keep watching as James is going to reveal why he thinks your favorite market indicator

might be a lie, a prediction for a 2028 that most people are still too scared to believe

and what smart money is signaling right now.

If you're enjoying my content, it would mean a lot to me if you could subscribe to the

channel and like my video to support my journey.

Thank you.

Alright, let's dive in.

James Check, welcome to Bitcoin for Millennials.

It's good to be finally.

It took us a few days.

Finally.

Yeah.

We made it.

Yeah.

I'm super happy you're here.

I think you are a breath of fresh air and I really enjoy how you approach, you know, all

the charts, analysis, price actions, stuff like that.

So when the prices at all time high, there are basically no critics, right?

There they are.

Extremely silent.

Now that we're hovering between 6070K, still up multiples, by the way, from 2022 lows,

but it is Bitcoin is dead.

It's a Ponzi again.

It's a tulip again.

It's, you know, I always wonder who runs the Ponzi or the Pyramids scheme, but they

never really replied to that.

From a data perspective, what is the blind spot you think exists that allows all these

people to come out and ignore a trillion dollar asset class until it, you know, breaks down

by or no, you know, crashes a bit by 40%.

It's a great question.

There's a few angles to this, but to answer the question directly, I actually think the

thing that just like, there's a few elements, but I think the one thing that drives people

mental is that it's not physical and they can't reason about it.

That's what I think is so interesting about what one of many things that's interesting

about Bitcoin is the digital scarcity thing.

So it's not tangible.

It's not a gold coin.

It's not a house.

It's not a car.

It's not a thing that I can like, it's like an object.

Is it an object?

I think that just trips a lot of people up because it does require lateral thinking to

be like, I kind of trust the mathematics and the code and the structure and the incentives.

You do have to do work to understand it.

And I think another element to it.

So when I left my job as an engineer to move into the world of Bitcoin full time as

Nannos, I left because I didn't really talk about it a great deal at work.

And then on my last day, people started to work out, he's not going into finance.

He's going into Bitcoin.

What the hell?

So anyway, I draft up an email to all of my closest colleagues where I said, look,

yeah, so I am going to be a Bitcoin analyst.

It's something that's just captivated me over the years.

Here's 10 bullet points that you probably haven't heard, right?

Taking the energy side of the equation and just all the different components.

Why it's important?

The scarcity.

So like 10 bullet points.

One was all about the media.

And I said, you can probably count on, you know, one hand how many positive media articles

this would have been in 2021.

How many positive media articles you've ever seen about Bitcoin?

And I said, just think about the incentive structure.

Most people, because Bitcoin is so new, most people have never bought it.

They've never ridden the wave.

Which one's going to get more clicks?

You are right to have ignored this thing.

It is a scam.

It's a Ponzi scheme.

It's collapsing once again.

You made the right decision by staying ignorant and not buying it or, yeah, remember that article

we wrote that was really bearish on this thing?

It turns out it's actually like quite an important innovation and you probably should have bought

some.

Sorry about that.

Which one is going to get more clicks confirmation bias?

People are going to go for the confirmation bias.

So at last point on this, because I think there's actually a lesson here to be learned on

human psychology, which is my favorite lens to look at the market for both the bulls and

the bears.

You're right.

At 126K, there are no bearish headlines, because it doesn't feel safe for the journalist

to pen an article that says it's going to zero, because they've just their recency bias

is just green candle, green candle, green candle.

Once it's down 50%, this is why journalists write bearish articles at the bottom, because

it now feels so safe to jump in the bearish pool.

The other way around is also very, very true.

I got no calls this cycle from like new people coming into Bitcoin, like should I buy

some, whatever.

I got tons of calls in around July, August, as we're breaking above 110 for the second

time, heading towards the all time high from existing Bitcoin is saying, where's the

best place?

Do you think for me to lever up and borrow against my Bitcoin to buy more?

And I was like, it started, I feel safe for people to jump in the bullish pool.

So this is one of those things where it's all human beings like looking for it to feel

safe.

And then they make the exact wrong decision, because when it feels safe, it's because

everyone's already bought or everyone's already sold, right?

It's at the extremes.

You do see that a lot of people, even people that are into, let's say, broader crypto,

finance, also Bitcoin, also are hit, I would say, by all these negative, negative, this

negative coverage, basically, and I agree, it's all for the clicks.

But you are calling this a modern bear market, right?

So for people who think, oh, I lost all my 2025 gains, et cetera, how does the data that

you're seeing that you're looking at actually help people distinguish between structural

failure, Bitcoin is going to zero, the thesis is wrong.

It, in fact, was made by the CIA and his pyramid scheme, a Ponzi and tulip, all into one,

or just a mechanical flush, the market is clearing leverage, this is part of a broader

cycle.

I mean, I realized last week that I've been in five, 70 plus percent drawdowns, so looking

at the percentages here, it's quite okay.

Yeah.

So that is exactly right.

So the lens to look at this, we really didn't get a euphoric blow off top.

Now, how do you define a euphoric blow off top?

There's obviously all the mood and the feelings and everything to come with it.

But ultimately, it's, you get stretched too far away.

So markets from our mean reverting, they, any asset that is like worth owning, will

go through booms and busts, right?

And what is it oscillating around some kind of mean?

And there are many means, right?

There's things that the market just gravitates around.

So from my perspective, you can look at like technical indicators, two in a day moving

average.

The two in a day moving average is naturally, it is literally a derivative of price,

so it's going to oscillate around that over time.

There's also things we can look in the on-chain world, we can look at cost basis levels.

What's the average price everyone bought their coins at?

What about only the people who bought recently?

What about people who've only held for multiple years?

All those different components.

The market just oscillates around those things because when it goes too high, people sell

and take profit.

When it goes too low, people also sell out of panic and fear, which lowers the cost basis

to somebody else.

So these mean reversion models, they work both to the upside and the downside.

So the reason I can say that we didn't really have a euphoric blow off peak is we never

really got to extreme deviations, probabilistically, to the upside.

There's also no reason that we have to hit a certain level.

Now on the downside, the pace and speed, I think, is kind of surprised.

I think a lot of people didn't expect a 50% drawdown, but it's like, well, you know,

why?

You know, as you said, 75.

And by the way, just to that point, I've also been through several 75% drawdowns.

How good is it in terms of like character building, though?

There's something very, like the amount of resilience it gives you as an individual

to like experience that is hardcore, 50% down, like, it's kind of another day in the

office.

And I find that I have to say, the randomness got to me.

I think like the randomness that you are referring to also, yeah, it's just strange.

At least for me, I'm not, I'm not a, I'm not a technical analyst or a chart guy.

What's so whatsoever?

So there are a lot of things that are similar in this bear market, but there were also

many things that are different.

So in terms of the similar component, we saw what I call a top heavy market, which is

where you just have tons and tons of sellers at the top.

But if you think about who a seller is selling to, it's buyers.

So when we got to the all time high in October, about 65% of what, there's a metric we call

the realized cap.

Think about as the invested wealth in US dollar terms, a coin board at 10k is worth 10k,

coin board at 100k is worth 100k.

So it's heavier if it's at a higher price.

70 or sorry, 65% of the wealth was above 95k.

Now that's a meaningful amount.

That's, you know, a super majority.

And as we sell off down through those levels, by the time we got to 105, half of that 65%

was underwater, right?

The price is now below its cost basis.

So there's just a lot of people who bought the top.

Now as the market sells off, more and more of those people go into loss.

They see there and there's three things that hurt in their markets.

There's the thing that people think about, which is I bought the top and now I'm underwater,

right?

Unrealize loss.

There's another one that people don't think about, but it actually hurts a lot, which

is, oh, I was up 150%.

Now I'm flat.

So watching there, unrealize profit evaporate.

And the other one is how long it takes, bear markets, like if you really take an honest

view, the 2018 bear market started in December 2017 and didn't end till December 2020.

That whole long sideways period through all of 18, 19 and most of 20, that is the bear market.

One big sideways chop.

2021, it's basically 2022 all the way through 2023 before we really got any serious uplift.

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Now the draw down at the moment is about 52% at the peak.

There's two kind of bookends that we tend to see in a bear market.

By the way, this is my current assessment.

Very happy to be wrong, but my current assessment is we generally have two, what they call

capitulation events.

Everyone gives up at the same time.

And how do you tell when people give up?

They just board at a higher price, like $100, $110, $150.

They just go, I can't do this anymore.

And they all sell and take a big loss on the same day.

Now, really?

On the same day?

Oh, yeah.

You see it all happened.

So a great example in 2022 in June, when three arrows blew up.

That was one of the largest capitulation events we've ever had.

The next one was FTX.

Now June, 2022, bottomed at 176, 176, 100 FTX occurred eight months later.

At 15.6.

Now, for people who are in an asset like Bitcoin, what's the difference between 17.6 and 15.6?

Nothing.

In price terms, it's irrelevant to the same price.

The difference is actually the eight months in between them.

And that's the key component.

You've got the price pain where the people who simply can't deal with number go down,

they usually capitulate at the bottom of the price.

And it's my view at the moment I'm working thesis.

That flush out at 60K in February, I think that was the price pain capitulation.

People who couldn't handle the market going down have said, I'm done.

I'm throwing them toys.

I've had enough.

Then we have the time pain component.

And this is gone from anywhere from 12 months to four months to five months to one day

in COVID.

The time pain component is this sideways shop where we hammer out a bottom.

And that who knows how long that goes on for, but a lot of people, you're now down

bad and you've got to carry it.

You've got to sit there and look at your portfolio being red and be like, this is never coming

back.

When will it come back?

And the narratives get worse and worse and you get like slightly lower lows in price.

But the difference between like, let's say, for example, the final bottom is like 15

or 55.

The difference between that and 60 is irrelevant.

It's the time in between.

So my view is that we're somewhere in that realm now to back to go back to your original

question.

What is different about this kind of bear?

Why do I call it a modern bear?

We didn't get the euphoric peak.

That doesn't mean we can't have a catastrophic low.

But we're already in my opinion getting a lot of, we have a candidate.

I would call it a bottom formation candidate between 70 and 50.

That is the zone where I think there is a very good chance that we actually do form

some kind of a meaningful bottom.

And if that occurs and we head higher, are people going to say that this was like an

FTX grade bottom?

Are they going to reset their cycle charts based on this 50% drawdown?

If we go to a new all time higher, people are going to call it a super cycle and say,

oh, it was a correction all along, it's all part of the same pool.

People aren't going to know what it is because it's kind of like previous bears, but also

has a lot of things that are different.

So I actually think this is a very good thing.

I actually hope and I would like to see and I would like to see this bear just break

people's mental frameworks a bit coin and stop thinking about this thing and this silly

four-year cycle dynamic because you can explain all of Bitcoin's price history without a four-year

cycle dynamic just based on what the world was doing at the time.

What the internal supply and demand dynamics were.

So anyway, I'll leave it there and that's my general thoughts on the current setup.

There's a popular meme, right?

That says technical analysis is just astrology for men.

You've built a career on data.

How do you respond to the critique that all chart analysis is just pattern seeking behavior

that kind of creates a self-affidding prophecies rather than actual insight?

Yeah, exactly.

It's all tea leaf reading, right?

Tarot cards and the likes.

At the end of the day, what is technical analysis?

If you go to the core, the analysis of price and volume over time, three components.

Price is what people respond to.

Think of it as both the answer and the incentive that drives people to make decisions.

What is volume?

Use people exchanging the asset at that price.

Now when you don't get people exchanging the asset at that price, you don't have a reason

like there's no support and resistance.

People haven't actually bought and sold and most importantly anchored their psychology

to it.

So I like to use the example of the Mount Gox coins.

Some of these guys were buying Bitcoin when it was like $10, $100, cheap, cheap prices

back in 2013, 2011, whatever.

They got their coins back in 2024 at about $68K, almost at the exact price route right

now.

Imagine you're one of those guys and you get given back your coins you've held, you've

huddled for what is it, 14 years or something and you get them back and you get them back

at $68K and the price sells off down to $50.

How are you going to feel?

Are you going to feel like, oh man, now I'm only up like $65,000 per cent.

Versus $78,000 per cent or are you going to think, damn, I could have sold at $68K and

here we are at $50K, probably the latter.

Exactly.

People's recency bias anchors to our last decision as a hodler.

If you've been in this market for a long time, you're well and truly up, you don't care.

But every time you buy, like you just do your latest DCA and the price goes down 10%

and you're, that's stings, that sucks, I could have bought 10% more, you anchored to your

most recent thing.

So the reason why I bring that up, price and volume, if you're getting people exchanging

the asset at that price, it's creating this support and resistance type dynamic.

So technical analysis is literally the study of human beings making decisions and the volume

is the confirmation that something has relevance.

People have chosen to actually buy and sell at that price.

I then go kind of in the next level and say, well, we've got a whole Bitcoin is like structurally

that it's a big database of transactions who bought and sold and held and at what price

and whatever else.

So we can basically analyze how people are moving coins, holding coins, how long do they hold

them?

When do people who bought a long time ago start realizing big profits?

And if you can believe it, they do it at cycle tops.

Why?

Because the price is going up.

So you kind of see this human psychology.

So sure, it's voodoo, it's, you know, it's astrology for men.

However, you're also basically saying that price, which is information, volume, which

is information and the Bitcoin UTXO set, which is a database of information, the claim

is basically that it is impossible for anybody with any skill level to identify human patterns.

And then I just go back and go, guys, look at the world around us right now.

It's the Roman Empire.

We're doing the same thing that the Romans were doing, right?

It's the exact same thing.

We just have computers now.

So, you know, human beings, the thing that I actually, my like core anchor for my analysis,

the price is different, the interest rates are different, Jay Powell's mood is different,

like everything changes in the world, but the human condition of making emotional decisions

to buy and sell an asset, to chase greed, to be fearful, those things are constant.

And all we're doing is studying pockets where lots and lots of people are going to be

very, very scared.

And that's how I actually model things when I, I was looking at this like 70K, 60K zone

when we're at the all-time high and saying, if we, I was just modeling, if the price goes

down to these levels, we will hit the same pain threshold that we've seen in every bear market

floor.

So, that's not a prediction to say, this is where the market's going to bottom.

It's saying, we've got to get below 80K and we will start seeing bottom formation things.

That was months and months and months ago.

Here we are below 80K and we're seeing bottom formation things.

And I was always targeting this 2024, where we chopped around in 2024 and saying, this

is where we hit pain thresholds.

And lower the whole, we get down here, massive capitulation events, $2, $3 billion a day worth

of losses locked in.

And if it's on a single day, my phone lit up like a Christmas tree.

I had podcast requests.

I had people saying, my clients are scared.

What do I do when we hit 60K and I was like, there it is.

It's human psychology doing exactly what it does every time it's given the same set

of stimulus.

Would you agree that in order to be or become a good hotler and kind of tune out this

noise of people that I always say, don't understand what they're holding, right?

What should they do?

Honestly, so a lot of people actually ping me and say, I don't read his work because

he writes for traders.

I'm like, I don't write for traders, I never write for traders.

I only write for hotlets.

And the reason I write for hotlets is, first of all, I found that that was actually a gap

in the market.

There's a lot of people who want to write and do analysis because they want to put like

entry prices, stop losses, take profits, I don't care about any of that stuff, I couldn't

care less.

I'm not a trader.

I hate trading.

I think trading sucks.

Yeah, no, it does.

It's horrible for the mental state.

It's just really bad for your health.

So what I prefer to do is just visualize why the market does what it does.

So the way that I try to write, and the kind of my, I guess, my business model, is very

much to just help hotlets tune out all the narrative and say, I see all of these stories,

right?

It's manipulated.

It's quantum computing.

It's this, it's that, it's that, it's the other, but in the data, and then you just

objectively look at the data and say, well, sure, there's manipulation happening.

But also see that like $3 billion a day of sell side by people who've held their coins

since the last bear market floor, and they're all selling today, yeah, they did that yesterday

as well.

And you know what?

They actually sold the same yesterday and the day before that, oh, look, they're still

selling.

Yes.

Like, sure, there might be manipulation, but it also could just literally be good old

fashioned sellers, could just be sellers.

So like you, you, you, and then when you see it over and over again, and you see so many

people jump on the latest bandwagon, oh, now Binance has manipulated the market.

Now it's Jane Street.

Now it's Coinbase.

Now they don't have the coins in the ETFs.

Now Sailor doesn't have any coin, just like, there's also just a lot of selling.

You know what I mean?

Like you, you can actually simplify and visualize the world.

So personally, I find, and look, some people aren't data driven.

That's why I try to use like charts and also just like tell these stories to make it a

bit more tangible, but the data tells the reality of what's going on.

Yes, you need a certain skill threshold and work to understand what you're looking

at.

However, the data is there.

It's all there.

And you'll be amazed how many people just simply don't look.

They just don't look and they don't actually want to answer the question because when you

answer the question, sometimes it's a bit dry like, yeah, guys, there's just a lot of

sellers.

You know, it gives me clicks and again, engagement for that.

I like that standard reply on X, you know, when someone says like, oh my God, what's

happening with the price?

And then it says, you know, you should just reply.

There's more sellers than buyers, you know, and that is true.

Right.

If you give it through a chart in front of them, be like, there's, and I've got charts

that try to do this.

Right.

It's like, here's, it's like a 30 day change in people's sell side versus buy side.

And like, there's this massive orange wave that shows the selling by hot loads.

And then down the bottom, there's this tiny little purple blip that's sailors buying.

And you're like, see that like thing down there?

That's like the 10% of all of that height.

And then the ETFs are like 20%.

Like everyone who's saying that sailors the only buyer, I'm like, you're kind of missing

the other 95% of where the hell do those coins go?

Who bought those ones?

Because it wasn't him.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Jokingly say, sell for what?

But there's a lot of reasoning behind this.

So I did this podcast episode.

But this is what I think people should do is like, okay, if you're into Bitcoin because

it's a trade or you think it's a get rich, quick thing, you know, you're going to be humbled

quite quickly, I would say, right?

And I really like how you approach what you just shared about, you know, how you want

to surface the hotlers.

I think it's both of those things, right?

What you're doing, but also just fundamentally, please try to understand what Bitcoin is,

why you should hold it.

And if you're thinking about selling, please also look at all these other financial assets

that you could own, understand their characteristics, their flaws and how they, you know, stack up

against Bitcoin.

And yeah, I honestly, and I think you're a similar person, right?

I just ended up with Bitcoin because I'm thinking in a rational way, based on my self

interest.

Yep.

And also, like I actually feel blind when I look at, like I own, I own gold, there's the other

big part of my portfolio, I don't have anywhere near the amount of data that I've got that

I do for Bitcoin.

Like for Bitcoin, I know what I know, like the back of my hand, when I need to go, is

there too much leverage in the system?

I'll go and check.

I know all of the tools I need to do that for gold, you know, here's a $50,000 a year

Bloomberg terminal, which also you need this data input and like, you know, I tell you

and, and by the way, the data might be flawed.

It also might only come in quarterly and yeah, China's not sharing their data anyway.

So you're like, yeah, but they're kind of the biggest buyer.

So like, what, how do I judge this thing?

So there's so much gap in the market.

If you're not a privileged insider in the world of Wall Street, it's very, very hard to

get clean, accurate data.

You can get the price chart.

You can get the volume.

There's a lot of information there, but for Bitcoin, I can see, like I can see the whole

map.

I can see all of the terrain.

I can see when old money starts moving and when it, you know, people who bought the top

was the other thing.

It's all about like, what do you expect to see at the top?

I want to see lots and lots of leverage.

I want to see lots and lots of people who bought a long time ago taking profit.

And the narrative will be there is no top, right?

You put those three together and that pretty much describes who we're at and then flip

that around.

What happens in the bear market?

All the people who bought those coins go, I can't do this anymore and they sell down

to the same buyers so that they buy it often and they sell it back to them at a cheaper

price.

No one wants to take long leverage and we're there right now.

There is no long leverage at all.

People are just, in fact, people are going short, which is a great thing to see because

they feel safe to get the pool.

They want to go short at the bottom and win it all back in one trade and they end up

losing again.

So you just see like everything flips around in reverse and yes, you know, it's just

a process of appendulum going from one side to the other.

Yeah.

As a data guy, you live by your models.

Has there ever been a moment where Bitcoin did something that literally destroyed your

mental model or forced you to kind of throw a core assertion in the trash, like have your

models been destroyed?

All the time.

Yeah, all the time.

And so there's two ends to that.

One, I wake up every day looking for which expecting and looking for which models have

broken and I can consistently impress at how many don't now.

There are certain types of metrics and tools that certainly have broken over time.

And also my journey is an analyst.

I got a lot wrong in 2021.

I got a ton wrong in 2021 because it was, you know, on chain data was started in 2018.

We never really had a bull market until 2021.

And then even then most of the tools none of us understood any of them.

So there, and there's a lot of tools that over time we have to correct and adapt.

And it gets increasingly nuanced.

The more mature Bitcoin gets just as a kind of an example, Satoshi and all the lost miners,

they currently hold like $110 billion worth of unrealized profit.

But they can't spend them because they're lost coins, right?

They're not responding to the market signal.

In order to get to the break even price that we use in the on chain world, you have to

have $110 billion of people who are active and do capitulate losses and are real people,

they need to carry an equivalent amount of loss to get to break even.

So a lot of people are currently expecting us to get to break even because we did it in

every previous cycle.

And my case is well actually over time we should not be going to break even because there's

all this unrealized profit.

So there's those kind of weird nuances that I have to always be on the lookout for and

thinking through these things to modify, adapt and evolve.

There are many metrics that just simply don't work anymore, right?

And you could argue did they work in the past, but like some things in the Bitcoin system

change.

Since we saw ordnals and inscriptions and all that junk get put on chain, things like

transaction counts no longer matter and active addresses no longer matter for all sorts

of weird nuances.

So there's metrics that were super useful in 21, but now people are looking at them go,

look, this thing looks really bad.

It's like, no, but you've missed the nuance.

So there are tools that break all the time, however, a lot of the core set that I use,

I kind of look for them to break because then I'm like, man, now we've got to really

work to fix them, but they seem to be just humming along quite all right, actually.

So there's a lot of things I got wrong.

There's a lot of things I learn over time as any good analyst should do.

And I'm always looking for tools to break.

Most of them don't, some of them drop off the map every so often.

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Now let's continue.

I think you're the best person to ask the following, you know, the bigger thesis of Bitcoin

is obviously, you know, Bitcoin has no top because Fiat has no bottom.

But when you're looking at the charts and you're looking at the dollar price, right?

Every asset is basically denominated in dollars, right?

But we're looking at, but you would agree if you agree with the bearer thesis, right?

Like, if Fiat denominated trending to zero type currency, is that a good way to kind

of look at something like Bitcoin in a data analytics way?

Does that make sense?

Yeah, no, it is the ruler, right?

And that's constantly changing how can you make sure that how you look at Bitcoin is

a correct way.

So there actually is, I think, a very definitive answer to this question.

And that is, there's a great project, which I think is fascinating, called UTXO Oracle.

Now again, going back to the human, what do humans do?

We send round numbers, $100, $1,000, $10,000, $10.

Those round numbers, this UTXO Oracle project, they basically look at the Bitcoin blockchain.

They don't read the price.

They don't look at finance.

They don't look at...

Yep.

What they do is they identify that human beings love to send $100, a round number.

So if you can see that there's a band where lots of coin, like is in Bitcoin terms, that

varies as the exchange rate fluctuates, you can actually see the price of Bitcoin imprinted

into the blockchain itself because of these round numbers.

Now that doesn't exist anywhere near to the same extent for the euro or the Aussie dollar

or the gold price.

So people do think in the US dollar.

And remember, Bitcoin's a global asset.

So people in Turkey, people in Venezuela, people in America, people in Australia, people

are transacting in US dollar terms on the Bitcoin blockchain itself.

So that is why I think that it is actually the correct reference point, which in many

ways, I fall into the camp where Bitcoin is not going after the dollar.

It's going after the global...

So there's a global reserve currency and the global reserve asset.

And I think that's very much a bifurcation of currencies, medium of exchange, asset is

store of value, unit of account potentially.

The idea of these two things is I think the dollar is going to be around for a very,

very long time, for the foreseeable future.

The US dollar is going to remain that way because it is stronger and more desirable than

every other fair currency.

So the answer is the Lyra will go to zero and the Bolivar will go to zero and the Australian

and Canadian dollar will go to zero before the US dollar does.

So the US dollar is going to be the last man standing when it comes to fair currencies.

There will be other currencies that pop up around that because governments aren't going

to want to give away that kind of control.

But I do think that until it loses its global reserve currency status, which I don't see

happening anytime soon, human beings will continue and maybe even increasingly so transacting

in the US dollar, especially the stable coins proliferate.

So yes, I think it is the right reference point because human beings have frankly freely

in the market chosen.

That is the reference point.

Very interesting thought actually, even if the US wouldn't want to be the world's reserve

currency anymore, right?

People do.

Yeah.

And that's funny, right?

Because that goes back to part of the answer to the question, what is money?

Well, whatever people believe it is, right?

So if you are in one of the, I think there's like 14 countries that use the US dollar,

for example, as their main currency, but also just between people in general, if the

social consensus is a dollar trumps any other, whatever, you know, a bill or a coin.

And I'd rather have that from you than some rando, whatever coin in whatever rando country

in Africa, then the dollar is going to proliferate.

Even when the US doesn't want it to, right?

Yes.

You know, areas of the world that have adopted the Australian dollar for anything, you know,

like in many ways, it's like a casino chip that's only useful here on this land.

You actually can't use it for anything else.

But these people are also not going to sit down and be like, well, what's the new world

order?

Right?

Should we buy it as bricks, baskets of whatever?

I don't know.

I don't know.

Like, whatever they come up with, right?

So I think that's a very, that's, that, that, that, that is a very under-discussed

freely selected.

And actually, that's why I think things like Tether are so interesting because the market

selected Tether.

Tether didn't force people to use it.

It just came out with a dollar stable coin that people in the third world adopted in a

lot of places you can use it just as money.

So it's quite remarkable how the world just selects freely by their own choice, these

things.

And that's the market speaking.

I wish we had that in Western countries and they wouldn't force us to use their, their

currency, right?

Well, anyway, maybe, maybe that's a different concept.

Yeah.

So back, back to the data, you recently noted, you kind of hinted to that, like old coins,

right?

Like three to five years of age, they're kind of returning back to the market.

I would assume this is also a certain signal that, that you are following, you know,

like I said, I'm not an analyst, but I really like watching the huddle waves.

I think it's super interesting just in general that, well, maybe it's a bit lower now,

but I would say safely, you know, just from the top of my head, probably between 55 and

60% of all coins haven't moved in like three plus years, something around that, and

that signals to me, you know, these are people that understand what this is, right?

To go back to the underlying thesis understanding, right?

Like those are people that went from, or well, you know, five plus years is really back

to 16K, but like, you know, these people have had a huge drawdown bigger than what

we've had now, right?

If they keep on huddling, you know, they are turning into like actual long-term holders

because they just understand the product thesis, right?

But when you were looking at these three to five year old coins coming back to market,

yeah, what is that?

Are these, you know, is that smart money exiting?

Is this wills that have a certain threshold or like, how do you view that?

Because I think actually what I'm asking is I think three to five years is just an interesting

range in general, but also from now back to, let's say, COVID, top-ish area, basically.

Yes.

So, in terms of just like the general structure of things, from April, but really June

last year, so kind of middle of the year, all the way through to November, so just to

give you a bit of a frame reference, that's where we've gone.

We sold off down to, what is it, I think, 75K when liberation day and tariff tantrum and

all that stuff.

75K by April, we're bouncing, I think by July, we were up above 100K somewhere.

And then from July through to October, we're kind of chopping sideways, but with a slight

upwards tilt, right, 100, 110, 120, 125.

That whole zone, we saw the largest distribution that we've ever seen by old coins.

And this is like coins that are 15 years old, 10 years old, seven years old, five years

old, three years old, the whole spread.

It was the most diverse and large scale mass cell site event that we've ever seen in

dollar and Bitcoin terms.

So in my view, that was like a, I called it the great rotation at the time, because if

we think about where Bitcoin is in its life's journey, it's like that, it's at the estuary

where it's, it's dominated the freshwater lake that it grew up in.

It's the biggest thing in the freshwater lake.

And that is all the hotlers like you and me that bought it when everyone was telling

that it was wrong and blah, blah, blah, there's no ETFs, there's no infrastructure.

We got it to two trillion dollars.

We're now in the world where it's swimming out into the big bad salty ocean, and we're

at the estuary between, as those two waters mix, the salt and freshwater mix, and it's

kind of this, this rotation of the people like, I really do like Jordy Viss's analogy of

it being like the IPO moment.

People who have been in the company forever since the early days, they still believe in

the mission, but they're also really, really up on their position and like selling a little

bit to diversify and other stuff means you're just no longer 99% allocated to one thing.

And I certainly know for me, like I even sold any Bitcoin I don't choose to, it's my longest

duration asset, but I have bought at the margin less Bitcoin this cycle than I usually

do.

I've been buying other things, precious metals, a few stocks here or there.

Why?

We were talking before we hit record.

I've got a son now.

My life is just different at my current age.

I can't be 100% Bitcoin anymore.

I just can't.

Like as a practical thing, I need other things in my portfolio is a bit of ballast.

I can't have my entire mood swung around by the Bitcoin price.

So there's a lot of people who are going to be doing the same thing.

And what was 2025 on the other side on the buy side, we had institutions coming in for

the first time, we had ETFs for the first time, we had we had sailor buying just tremendous

amounts of Bitcoin amongst other treasury companies as well.

There was a huge amount of demand.

So the folks who got Bitcoin from zero to two trillion finally had the opportunity to

sell in size at scale to willing buyers who had the capital to actually take those coins

off their hands.

So we're talking hundreds of billions of dollars.

So that was really what 2025 was.

And here's a really key insight.

That sell side, that profit taking sell side stopped almost to the day when we sold off

in November and hit 80K, just completely off a cliff.

So there is signal there.

The old hands knew that above 100K was probably a bit frothy.

It's late stage in bull.

There's enough demand for me to actually exit.

Now is the right time.

Once we got to 80K, the signal was the opposite.

Now is not the right time to sell.

I've done.

I mean, back away.

So now we're in the stage of the people who bought that top, they're crystallizing losses

on the way down where we've switched over from a profit absorbing market to where now

just trying to flush out the top buyers who don't want to see the end of the movie.

So there's been a very clear psychological shift.

It started at 80K and once we got down to 60K, profit taking is just, it's basically

back down below 2023 levels, so pre-bull market stuff.

No profit over the last 30 days, a lot's happened in the last 30 days.

Less than 8% of all the coins that are moved came from a price below 60K.

The vast majority of people are people who bought the top that are currently transacting.

So we're in this like, you would know, right?

When you've been in Bitcoin for a long time, even if you sell some, you're not going

to be like, oh, I'm never going to look at that.

That's it ever again.

Like Bitcoin is this thing where like once you understand it, you literally go so far

that you make a career out of it.

You make a podcast out of it because it's like it's so fascinating.

What are these smart, old hands doing?

They sold the top.

They're now no longer selling.

They're in either weight and sea mode or they're in, I like that price mode.

And if they're in weight and sea mode at 80K, where do you think they are at 60K?

They're moving back towards that now is the time to step back in.

So it's just that psychological shift and it takes time.

That's what people get chopped up by.

They think these things are going to happen straight away, but it just takes time.

Yeah.

We did see a lot of outflows, you know, like we discussed earlier this year.

So if the fair value of Bitcoin is significantly higher, you know, based on what you are looking

at, why is the market ignoring this math and kind of like following, you know, the outflows

I mentioned was ETFs also mainly.

Is that just what you said before that's just human behavior?

Because in March, we do see beer in flows again.

We even see Morgan Stanley, Bitcoin ETF filing, right?

What do you make of that?

That's a weird Q1 if I describe it like that.

Yeah, yeah, totally.

So there's a few, there's many ways we can measure fair value.

My preferred model is the average cost basis for active investors.

We can use this with on-chain data.

I won't go into the details, but fair value in 2021 through most of the cycle was about

30K.

This model was around 30K.

It's where we sold off in the middle of 2021.

We broke below in 2022 and we chopped around underneath it on the way back up in 2023.

It was very much so the middle.

That fair value is now at 80K.

So it's added $50,000.

That's like the middle.

Now, what have we done?

We've traded above it.

120, 126.

We've traded below it, 60, 70, something, 68, eventually we're going to break back above

it.

So the fair value right now is 80K.

It was 30K and we used to be 8K back in the previous cycle, right?

And I don't know what it was, 250 bucks or something in the previous cycle.

So for all the haters, what's the trend?

Correct.

What's the trend you're seeing?

The ETFs, the ETFs have the very much the same pattern.

We see a monstrous amount of inflows and then a bit of outflow and then a monstrous amount

of inflows and then a bit of outflow.

So the cumulative chart just keeps doing this, keeps grinding high, comes back a little

bit, goes back up again.

So and to that point, when you look at the outflows, we've seen about $11.2 billion and I wrote

a piece about this recently, I'm like, how big is, I asked, you know, ask AI?

How big is it, like, give me a visual representation of $11.2 billion.

It's like, it's, you know, 10 Olympic swimming pools full of $100.

It's 20 African elephants and apparently it's 2 billion handbook big Macs.

I'm like, that's great.

I can really visualize 2 billion big Macs, thanks a lot.

So from that perspective, we had 11.2 billion about flows, but that compares to 63 billion

of all time inflows.

It's like 12%.

And the price is down 52%.

When you look at in terms of AUM terms, the AUM, so the total amount of coins that went

in versus came out, we only saw about, I think, 6 or 8% of the total coins went up.

It's very low.

And here's another layer to it.

When you overly, see me, futures open interest.

As far as I can tell, something like 80% of those ETF outflows look like somebody who

put on a basis trade by the ETF, short the future.

I'm just locking in the sprayer.

Don't care what the price is.

It's a structural.

It's like a, it's a trade arbitrage trade, not like a bought ETF thing.

So what we're not seeing out of the ETFs is Bitcoin's dead getting out of this thing.

I just hate it.

We're actually just seeing some dude doing some hedge fund doing window dressing as we

come into December.

That's like most of the outflows.

So it has this like, the hodlers in the ETFs are actually somewhat better hodlers than

many hodlers out there, which is quite remarkable.

Morgan Stanley.

They're putting their own name on an ETF after 12 have been active in running for a long

time.

They're stepping into an already saturated market.

Why?

Because they want their advisors to issue Morgan Stanley ETF as a recommendation.

And they believe that there's going to be a lot of demand for it.

I think it's the Bitcoin ETF is the most successful profitable ETF that BlackRock has.

So there is a lot of things where like, you know, if you look at fair value, it keeps

climbing over time.

The floor keeps climbing over time.

If we bottom somewhere between, you know, 50, 60, 70, if that's like the final, basically

we end up forming the previous base was 15k, right?

People love to look at top to top of what really matters is bottom to bottom, right?

You want to see where did the market say it's not going back down to those levels.

Those levels are ancient history now.

So from my perspective, I think that there is just a continual upwards growth.

We go up a lot down a bit up a lot down a bit.

And that is across every metric, across the ETFs, across the price, across the market

cap, across capital flows, up a lot down a bit.

Yeah.

From a long-term holdler perspective, I would say even though, you know, like I said

in the beginning, the down trend for me was quite unexpected without any reason.

I think what you're laying out is that there's a lot of things that are kind of overlapping,

right?

So there's maybe like a lot of structural liquidity actually just playing it like a trade.

There are these OG, longer-term hotlars that reach a certain point.

There is just talk of the four-year cycle, right?

And there's also other assets, right, AI, is like once in a generation trade as it comes

online, there was other stuff to buy that was competitive with the Bitcoin performance.

Yeah, there's a ton of stuff going on on that front.

So yeah, for the first time, like there was just actually something else to buy that

was suitable relative to Bitcoin's normal performance.

Yeah.

What I wanted to say is, let's say where did we go to, like 57, 58, did we touch 58 now

again, 58?

No, 60.

60 is a lot of stuff going on this, on this low.

Like, if that would be the actual bottom, even if 50, let's say 50 is the bottom, right?

That was easy.

Yeah, I want to say.

I want to say.

Like totally.

Like, if that is really it for, for, with all the build-up anticipation, like all these

ideas about 2026, et cetera, I would personally think it would be very bullish to be on.

No, it would be.

Yeah.

And I think one of the things that a lot of people missed, it's very hard to quantify this.

But think about how sideways 2025 was.

Like for the whole year, we closed it, whatever it was, 98 or something like that, I can't

remember exact number.

But we were basically flat on the year, right, down 6% or something, which is nothing.

So we were flat for the whole year.

There's a lot of pent-up frustration with Bitcoin just not going up while other stuff

did.

So like, in a way, we kind of served the first part of our bear market sentence in the

bull market because people were so frustrated by watching other stuff go up, inpatient,

so that when the price goes down, it was just this big unloading at 80K November and

60K in February, I'm done, I'm finished.

So we kind of, we kind of speed around the capitulation, in my view.

We got there really, really quickly because of all that pent-up energy.

We've still got to hammer out the floor, but there's a very, very good case.

Basically, when you look at it from a supply structure standpoint, the current zone we're

in has about 18.2% of all the wealth that's ever been purchased in Bitcoin, I mentioned

before, when you got like 60, 70% who bought the top.

Now we've got 18.2% who bought in this current trade range.

We normally, in 2018 and 22, when you get to a quarter, 25%, both of them have it like

the bottom has been in and we're actually training higher again.

We were at 10% before we got here in February.

So we've seen 8.2% of all the wealth ever invested in Bitcoin accumulated between, kind

of in the last 30 days, because we only sold down here on the 5th of February.

So this zone is the candidate, as it stands, can we go lower yet?

But this zone is by far the most likely candidate for us to form a bottom.

So I'm really kind of catastrophic sort of happens, kind of break that, the back of that

thing, I think.

Yeah.

I have a question now that you're saying this that I didn't write down, but yesterday

I tweeted.

I thought it was really yesterday, Sunday, yeah, like in the weekend, you said maybe something

has to happen, right?

Multiple wars, I don't know, there's always there, right?

So you could say, son, well, it's not Black Swan-ish, but maybe it could get worse.

What I thought was interesting that in all of this uncertainty, oil going up, Bitcoin

going down on a Sunday, I actually thought was interesting, I tweeted something along the

ways and I wonder what you think.

And I also said this could be cope, but okay.

I think that it looks like Bitcoin is actually used as a liquidity tool, right?

Because if stuff happens on the weekend with oil, for example, right?

People have to cover whatever their positions are on Monday morning, and there's several

people that I've talked about this before, like Bitcoin is the only thing that trades

24, 7, 365.

It does seem that Bitcoin is used as a certain liquidity parking area for bigger traders

that are playing macro-type developments like this.

What do you think about that?

Yeah.

So if you think about it from, so generally speaking, if you just look at the long arc

of Bitcoin's price history, generally it goes up over time, it generally goes up.

Most of the time statistically it actually goes sideways, but most of the time in the

long term when you zoom out, it actually goes up over time.

So as an investor, right, someone who's a long term oriented person, you see the market

could go down on Sunday because of some geopolitical headline, and then over the long arc of time

it goes up.

So you're like, hey, I should actually own some of this and I should probably buy some

on those scary R steps.

So for the long term investor, it actually makes sense to buy it, especially on those

low liquidity sell-off type events.

If you're a trader, much more short-term thinking, which is what you're referring to, you

see that, hey, big headline goes, I can actually get liquidity now because it's Sunday.

I can use it on my Monday morning, and then you see that over the long arc of time it tends

to go up again.

So you go, hey, that's actually not the worst parking spot of all time.

I actually parked some capital there because I might need it for something.

So this is one of those, if you bring it back, like Bitcoin gets more useful the bigger

it gets.

When it's a couple of billion dollar market cap, you know, you can't really park much

capital in it.

When it's trillions of dollars, multiple trillions of dollars, you can park billions of dollars

in it and tap that on a Sunday night and there will be the liquidity for it.

So the bigger Bitcoin gets the more that what you just described actually comes true.

And this is where I think a lot of people go wrong is Bitcoiners are so into Bitcoin

that we extrapolate our opinion of it and assume everyone else has the same opinion and

it's just isn't so.

Most people couldn't care less about it, right, because most people couldn't care less

about most things, frankly, they care about the football.

So for us as Bitcoiners, we extrapolate our deep understanding and assume everyone understands

it the same way and it just takes years to decades for people to reach even a fraction

of what most people who've been in this space for a long time understand about it.

But it happens slowly but surely and gradually.

So if we bottom down 50%, that's by the way, that's a hell of a difference to 75.

Going from 50% down to 75 isn't another, it's another 50% draw down from here, you know,

going down 95% is going down 90%, then going down another 50%.

So the asymmetry of us not going down 75% is actually massive.

It's a whole regime shift.

50% was like a nasty dip in 2021.

So if we start talking about like Bitcoin getting bigger, draw down, it's getting volatility

starting to compress, there's a lot of things here which just it looks like that estuary

of we're just swimming out to a much bigger seat and there's a lot of sharks out there

in the ocean, right?

They're fresh water pond where the biggest thing in there.

Now we're swimming out in a world where there's a lot of big bag nasties.

It's going to be a bumpy ride, but it's also part of the maturation.

If you keep staying in the fresh water pond, you run out of food.

I would fully agree with that.

For your cycle, you said it doesn't exist, right, or it doesn't exist anymore.

What is the new thing you are following or you think people should pay attention to?

If not the halving, like what kind of data point should people watch to kind of understand

the cadence that we're in?

Yeah.

So there is no reason why Bitcoin will follow the calendar, right?

So the reason why I say that the four year cycle is kind of irrelevant.

It's not that it hasn't been like an approximately four year phase, right?

I can observe that and see it like anybody else can.

My view is that people who anchor to it and say it has to be a four year cycle will go

through a process of ignoring information that shows when that breaks, right?

When that is no longer the case, their bias will say, no, it has to bottom in October.

Not it might bottom in October, it has to bottom in October.

So they start believing something why because the calendar says so, right?

It's which calendar?

Mine one.

So from my perspective, it's like, I prefer to look at what our investors are actually

doing.

So for example, my view is we've seen the price capitulation event in February.

It moved to 60K has all of the hallmarks of December 2018 of June 2022.

What happened after that in 2018?

There was four months or five months of sideways chop four months in 2022.

There was eight months.

Then we had another dip and then we had another two months of sideways that the bottoms

can be all shapes and sizes.

But I will never forget in 2018 where I was studying the 2015 bottom and saying it has

to, it's going to be 12 months of sideways chop because that's what happened in the past.

And it was four months.

And I'll never forget the pain that I felt to the upside in 2019 because I had my engineering

spreadsheet out.

I was saying, I'm going to DCA so much between 4K and 3K, look at all the coin I'm going

to have.

And then April, it just shoots to 14K.

So what did I do?

I bought a bunch of capital at 14K and I went through a second bear market, which was

2019, right?

That was a whole other thing.

So what I did is I anchored to an unnecessary bias, which is that this bottom is going to

be like the previous bottom.

This cycle is going to be like the previous cycle.

You introduce the simplifications, yes, but based on what?

What is the mechanism that causes why will we bottom in October?

Because we topped in October?

Because I ran a study recently where I looked at, I used eight different methods, right?

And do we break below the 200 and moving average when do we break below this level?

Things that happen in early bears.

And then I fixed every pre because we have hindsight.

I looked at every previous bear when was the bottom in, right?

And I fixed that date and I said, how many days did it take from the bear market starting

thing until we got to that bear market end?

And then I modeled them all.

I said, well, what is the average time duration between event and here?

When did the event happen in our current cycle versus that end?

We don't know where the endpoint is.

And what I basically found is that the only model, the only model that said, we have to

bottom in October, was the model that goes, what we topped in October, to which I'm like,

I love the rigour.

I love the rigour.

So I'm very glad I'm averaging that out because all of the other ones say it's probably

not going to go that far.

I wanted to jokingly say because it's a fractal bro, and look markets are fractals, right?

So there are people who are going to behave and say, well, for you, therefore for you,

but there are also, there's going to be a point in time where you drop a rock and a pond.

The ripples initially come out.

They're nice and uniform and consistent, but then you start getting interference.

It bounces off the sides of the pond.

The ripples interfere with each other.

Someone else throws a rock in and then eventually you're like, where's the original ripple

gone?

And people are like, but it used to be four years and like, they just get lost because

they kind of don't adapt to new information.

Some, some shorter questions to wrap up.

What would make you say my bull thesis is actually broken?

Good question.

The price angle is hard because it very much depends on the structure of how the market

is performing and there's a lot of other things that happen.

Honestly, from my perspective, it would actually be if the Bitcoin system, the people around

it, start getting funny with the code, right?

We start trying to say, oh, we don't like the price action is doing, yeah, we don't

like the price action is doing this.

So maybe we can like burn people's coins or we can like stop these people from spending

or starting to play around the edges to look to try and make price a consensus decision.

That's where I think things get really hairy because now you're introducing the one thing

that Bitcoin does tremendously well, removing humans from the decision system.

Once you start getting people playing around in the code, thinking that they're magic

and that they can solve all of Bitcoin's problems, right?

I'm here to fix Bitcoin.

I've heard about Bitcoin.

I'm here to fix it when those people are allowed to start making changes, then you start

getting into hot water.

So for me, it's much more in that like fundamental when the structure of the system is starting

to get compromised by humans when we let humans in the door and for that perspective,

that's where I start to get concerned.

So what is the most spicy view that you are holding right now, like something that you're

you are 90% sure will be consensus later on, but that people would think is crazy today.

People say 20, 30.

People sell Bitcoin.

People sell Bitcoin all the time.

So yeah, the spiciest view actually, I mean, generally speaking, the pool of people like

you and I who like so deep in the Bitcoin rabbit hole that is like our thing where there

are very, very, very, very few of us, if you look on chain, there's at most getting rid

of all like small dust transaction, there's 14 million UTXOs thereabouts.

How many people have multiple UTXOs across multiple wallets a lot?

So sorry, I think it's addresses rather than UTXOs.

So it doesn't really matter.

So the point is, there's about an upper bound.

If every one of us had one coin, then there'd be 14 million Bitcoins on chain, but then

you got to remove exchanges, you got to move ETFs, you got to move all that stuff.

They've got a lot of consolidated wallets, but the number rapidly shrinks when you consider

the most holders have 10, 20, 30, 50 depending how long they've been in the market and what

their frequency of DCA is, suddenly you're talking about like a million people who owns

on chain Bitcoin.

So I would say, if I was kind of live thinking this through, my spices pin is I think we've

probably saturated the number of like on chain Bitcoin as it will ever exist.

I think we're very close, maybe, maybe if we have a lot of kids, there'll be more, but

like I really think it was saturated, the hardware wallet space.

There's only so many people who are going to buy a steel plate and bury it in their backyard.

This is why the ETFs are popular, this is why just people are not going to self-custody

not because that's not the right thing to do.

It's really hard and like, you can't have to really deepen the weeds.

Most people just aren't and why do that?

Okay, wait, I'll ask you a bonus question because I asked this a lot to different people.

Okay, so I like your approach.

My question is, okay, how many people understand Bitcoin at the level you and I where we are

at?

Just what is the number?

It would be under 100,000, well, and truly, I would think, you know, and like this grades,

like I would say people who listen to more than like one or two Bitcoin podcasts a week,

I would probably put them in that bucket.

That's probably like a couple of hundred thousand at most.

Yeah, okay, globally.

Yeah, in my mind, I'm at like a hundredth K. I have people that I really respect.

They say, no, no, it's like, it's like 10 or 15 K.

Yeah, yeah.

So you've got to define depth, right?

If you listen to two podcasts a week, you're into it.

That's like 100 K.

Probably.

Yeah, that's true.

All right.

Last question to wrap up and I ask everyone the same question, which is, what is a core

belief that you will never let go of?

That you have to just be honest, you know, to honestly, part of our like I've written

down in our like internal docs for my business is like, just don't be a grifter and that is

actually a business model in this space.

I like, to me, just being honest and like having high integrity, it is so, and I get it is

so easy to go down the path of like, but I could get more sponsors.

I could get so much more attention, clicks, all the rest of it.

If I went down the click baity path, I could make a ton more money.

Click baity is also, it would be your name.

Click me exactly.

It would just be the most unappealing thing to me ever.

So I value integrity and honesty very, very highly and it's also like there's some people

who no matter what you do, they'll be like, oh, you're just doing this because you want

paid subscribers.

Like, dude, I could get so many more paid subscribers if I stop doing exactly what I'm doing,

which is like being nuanced and trying to go through the data and being thorough and

like spending two days compiling everything, I could make a lot more if I just became click

baity, right?

But it's just not, it's just not my thing.

All right, well, checkmatey, thank you.

Really appreciate your time.

It was a really great convo and I hope people find it valuable.

Let's say in touch.

Thanks mate.

Cheers.

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