🚨Bitcoin + Oil = MEGA CRASH?

Bitcoin and oil go together like oil and water and the tale of two cities is setting up for a massive potential crash for Bitcoin.

We're going to take a look at a key metric that is proven to be the general floor for Bitcoin's bottom in each bear market leading up to this current situation that just had a major change that might be painting some pain in the future.

As I said, the price to produce Bitcoin in these lows that we've experienced in past bear markets was that bottom trampoline point for Bitcoin to find its bid for support and start moving back on up to the upside.

In our current situation, just about a month ago, the price to produce Bitcoin was sitting right at around $74,500, but things have changed quickly.

Energy prices have spiked, hash rates have fallen, and advancements to Bitcoin mining machinery have caused some major changes to the average electrical cost to mine a Bitcoin.

You throw on top of this complex soup oil has spiked to a recent level of $113 a barrel and now is sitting at a ominous $97 a barrel and every single time oil goods up to the $100 mark.

We have some kind of big announcement of Trump. We've accomplished peace. We've solved the war and I ran only to be shortly followed up with Iranian denials.

Now we had the Trump pump on the peace announcements and the markets are still trying to hold on to the gains made from those announcements, but Iran came out and rejected the proposed ceasefire.

Dig a live look at the Strait of Hormuz and things are still looking skittish. Boats are waiting in the wings for their chance to pass through and it doesn't look like peace is on the table currently.

I am not worked up and scared about this situation in particular the scarier chart, but a tweet that I saw just about a day ago from a fellow named Ted pillows has me having trouble sleep at a night on my pillow.

The electrical cost for Bitcoin is plunging message from Ted pillows on X the Bitcoin electrical cost has just dropped below $50,000.

Just a few months ago, as I was mentioned at the beginning of the video, this was around 70K.

He expects electrical cost to drop below $45,000, which means that Bitcoin bottom ceiling will go lower.

In his opinion, this means that Bitcoin will eventually drop below that $50,000 level and could bottom around 46 to 48K.

This move would also coincide with the August 2024 lows, a scary thought to think about, unless you're excited to buy a cheaper Bitcoin, of course.

Now, let's take a look at where this information is coming from.

Now, this line is a modeled proxy based on network difficulty.

This takes an account hash rates, average hardware efficiencies and the electricity price.

And in short, this claim is true according to the specific electrical cost that Ted is highlighting.

Now, the chart is from a popular trading view indicator often called something like the Bitcoin electrical cost or R2D2.

And not the R2D2 that you're thinking of, okay, it's not this guy.

It is the total electrical cost for Bitcoin.

I know the two can be easily confused.

The shows of the estimated raw electricity, then the cost to mind one Bitcoin has indeed fallen to $49,785 as of the time of this recording.

But a few months ago, the same metric was hovering around the 70K region.

Now, when Bitcoin price dips below the red line, miners start losing money hand over fist on power and may eventually shut down their mining rigs

or sell the Bitcoin to cover the cost.

There is nuance to this discussion if you count the all-in cost of mining a Bitcoin.

This includes depreciation of assets.

This includes power cost, operation, and the hosting services.

Now, these total costs combined come still around the $70,000 mark.

And sometimes these overall operation costs are hitting $100,000.

But there is a dark horse in this conversation, new hyper-efficient rigs.

Some new rigs like the AntMiner S23H model can have a break even as low as $44,000 in cheap power regions.

Efficiency is increasing, and because of that, hash rate adjustments have happened, and some miners are upgrading the hardware even after the 2024 having.

But it bluntly, this metric of the electrical cost to Bitcoin, yes, it sits here, but it is a very fluid conversation.

And it really leaves a scratch in your head.

If things become more efficient, and the cost goes down, that might actually lower that baseline level where Bitcoin can fall to in the guts of its bear market.

If oil continues to skyrocket, and the strut of promote continues to be shut down, and we see a minor capitulation as these organizations are forced to sell their Bitcoin to cover cost,

we might be looking, honestly, below the $50,000 level in the next washout.

My heart is hopeful that Bitcoin is bottomed out or generally close to its bottomed out zone right now, but that's not guaranteed.

And all of this information is real data, but the end result is still a prediction on what it means for the price.

Looking at this general structure, I still feel that the low end of this ETF gatherup region at the $53,000 mark is going to be a buoyant point for Bitcoin.

Should we experience another washout and we do have some short term signs of hope is the daily as of the time of this recording in the morning of Wednesday 325 is showing a green dot on the daily timeframe.

Moving averages are looking strong and we are digging ourselves out of a red money flow pretty aggressively right now.

What I'm currently doing is trading in and out of Bitcoin and some of my favorite altcoins inside of this range.

And I will treat this as a range until it is broken to the upside or downside.

And what I'm doing with this tether is sitting it on the sidelines trading with it and keeping it available to back up the truck on spot Bitcoin.

Should we see that nasty washout down to the low 50s occur if you're interested in gathering your own tether during this time of chop I suggest you click the link in our description and join our discord to get the quant calls because he has been absolutely crushing it.

It's his time to stay focused to not let emotions take the wheel.

We're seeing some of the biggest tensions in geopolitical history unfold in front of our eyes and Bitcoin still is generally pretty damn good holding around the $70,000 region.

Bitcoin was built for the great time frame of change and that time frame is upon us.

So I'm not turning my back now while the kittens good and the prices are low.

Let me know down in the comments if you think we're going to 40k or if we are at the bottom right now I'm interested to hear your thoughts.

We're going to keep a close eye on the electrical cost of Bitcoin because I think that's going to be a very important metric when it comes to determining the bottom.

And we're going to see how this conflict with Iran pans out over the weekend.

Trump loves to put the bad news on us Friday after markets closed in the good news once markets are getting ready to open on Monday.

So we'll see this clown show when it continues.

I'm assuming more of the same sigh out from Trump, but you know what he's one of the more popular people on the planet.

So there's a lot of people that have his backing will see who's got the better edge in the markets when it comes to trading.

But for now it looks like oil is ready to make another move up and the Iranians are not ready for any sort of surrender.

So we'll stay tuned to this and I'll see you on the next one.