Bitcoin Rips to $82K in a Global Bond Crisis! Here's Why It's Just Getting Started | Truth Block

0:00Bitcoin's ripping above $80,000 today and it just crossed above the 50-week moving average for the first time since its bear market started and it's doing all of that in the middle of a global bond crisis. Yields ripped higher in nine countries at once. Tokyo and Washington spent a record $98 billion defending the yen and lost anyway. That should have taken Bitcoin apart, but the dip was shallow, it was short, and Bitcoin is back over 80k while the bond market is still burning. And Bitcoin's correlation to the Nasdaq just fell off a cliff. For the first time ever, Bitcoin is tracking gold more closely than it tracks text stocks. In one analyst says Bitcoin already sniffed it what's coming and at $300,000 could be next. So is the market finally reprising what Bitcoin actually is? And if so, how big does this reprice get? This is Truthblock. I'm Hurley. That's my truth. Last week I gave you my line. If Bitcoin holds 80k, then closes above the 50-week moving average, the bull market is officially underway. Well, the 50-week sits around 80,400 today and

1:05bitcoins above it. Now, the weekly candle doesn't close until Sunday, so this is not done yet. But Galaxy did the work on this one, and their finding is the reason it matters. In 11 of the last 13 bear markets, Bitcoin had already put in its cycle bottom by the time it managed a weekly close above the 50-week average. And the monthly already did it. A monthly close above the 10-month moving average has marked the end of every single Bitcoin bear cycle going back to at least 2016. We closed above it on Monday. And all of this is happening during a full-on global bond crisis. Japan's 10-year government bond yield just printed 3% for the first time since 1996. And understand how strange that is at the start of 2020, that same yield was negative. Meaning, you paid the Japanese government for the privilege of lending it money. Adam Livingston ran the numbers, and this is the part that should get your attention. Since October of last year, Japan's 10-year has moved more than twice as far as the US 10-year over the exact same window. The world spent 30 years treating Japan as the permanent source of nearly free money, and the price of money in Japan is getting reprised in real time.

2:07So, they're defending the currency. Japan's Ministry of Finance to close that between July 30th and August 26th, they spent 15.4 trillion yen holding up the yen. That's about 98 billion dollars in under four weeks. And the US Treasury confirmed to join in using its own foreign exchange reserves. So, 98 billion dollars later, and the end went down anyway. And they went right back into the market intervening again this morning. And this isn't only Japan. Robin Brooks put out a chart this week showing long and yields at or near multi-year highs in nine different countries at the same time. And when every developed government on Earth is losing the same fight on the same week, there's really only one tool left in the drawer. It ends at the printer. It always ends at the printer. Now, this combination should have been a disaster for Bitcoin. When the government pays you almost 5% risk-free, holding something that pays you nothing gets expensive. That's the whole bear case. And it's worked for Bitcoin's entire ETF era. Every time yields ripped, Bitcoin bled. This week, yields ripped about as hard as they can rip. And Bitcoin went up 5K. Mike

3:11Alfred was on the Wolf of All Streets podcast yesterday, and he had an interesting read. We have a game of chicken right now between the central bankers and bond yields. And I think it's early stages for that. I think Bitcoin snifed out that there's going to be significant intervention. The question is just how significant is that intervention? I don't think Bessent is going to back down very easily. I think he's a very proud guy. I think he wants to prove that he has domination over the bond market. I think that's a tough game. But ultimately, I think the bond market wins in the sense that Trump has to back off on the geopolitical stuff in order to stop the inflation in order to stop the fear around what's happening in the Middle East, etc. And then separately, Bessent may have to intervene more substantially than the market believes today. I think the combination of those two things could lead to a release of significant compression. In the market, triggering the completion over a year or two of a real business cycle, and in that environment, I could see Bitcoin at 300,000. Bitcoin snifed out that there's going to be significant intervention, because Bitcoin stopped

4:15trading the yield, and it started trading what they're going to have to do about the yield. And Alfred's read on Bessent is the interesting part. He thinks this is a proud man who wants to prove he can dominate the bond market. And that's a game the bond market has won every single time it's been played, and the losing move is always the same one. That's the road to the 300,000 Bitcoin he's describing. The compression releases, the intervention gets bigger than anyone currently expects, a real business cycle finally arrives for the first time since 2021, and a fixed supply meets a wall of money that is nowhere else to go. Now, if you're holding through a week like this one, there's a version of this that goes wrong, because if you hold a huge percent of your net worth in Bitcoin long enough, there's going to come a time when you need dollars. It tends to show up at the worst possible moment in a week that looks exactly like this one, when selling is the last thing you want to do. That's why this show is sponsored by Ledend. Ledend lets you borrow up to 50% of your Bitcoin's value, arriving in your bank account within six hours, with no credit check, and no capital gains event. It roughly half the rate of a credit card.

5:16With Ledend, your Bitcoin stays in secure custody and is never lent out, and Ledend has originated over $11 billion in loans since 2018 without ever losing a single Satoshi of client funds. So head over to learn.ledend.io, forward slash simply to learn more. All right, so the question is whether this week actually changed something or whether we're all pattern matching on seven days of data. Last week I showed you Bitcoin's correlation to gold hitting the highest reading in its entire history. Well, it turns out that was only half the story. Gray scale just published their rolling 90 day correlations. Bitcoin against the NASDAQ has fallen from the high 50s down to the mid 30s. Bitcoin against gold has climbed from basically zero a year ago into the low 50s. And in August, those two lines crossed. So Bitcoin is now tracking gold more closely than it tracks text stocks for the first time ever. Last week that was a flow story, the same money buying both for the same reason. This week it got stress tested because a global bond crisis is exactly the event that has always dragged Bitcoin down with the NASDAQ. And it didn't. Then Bloomberg's ETF analyst Eric

6:19Belchunis went and checked it. He saw the claim going around and didn't buy it. So he pulled the correlation matrix himself. Over the last six months, Bitcoin has had a lower correlation to US stocks than gold, then small caps, then emerging markets, and then long-dated treasuries. In fact, it barely moves with treasuries at all anymore. So what does it move with? Gold. More than anything else on the list. In his words, it blows up the claim that Bitcoin is just a NASDAQ. And this is exactly what Eric Yakes was describing of what Bitcoin did last week. The ETF inflow that came as a response to this, which is showing that this is like institutional and retail buying behavior. That's huge. It says, hey, Bitcoin's a countercyclical asset on this debatement trade. And that was a big thing that we were calling for in the annual report. The, I think the specific prediction we made was that it'll be obvious in 2027, but 2026 in hindsight will be the year that we view Bitcoin as decoupling for equities and broader risk assets

7:22and being viewed more as like a, whether a debatement trader or a countercyclical hedge. So this happening, it doesn't mean it's persistent. We have a lot of time. And that's why I said in hindsight, I think we'll look at it as the period. But I think this is the start of it. Like that was very major. You see the news headlines and the way people are talking about Bitcoin right now. And it has a 54% bottom paired with that. So what does that mean? It's less volatile than it used to be. When people are expecting 70 to 80% drawdowns out of the asset. And he's careful with it. He says himself one week doesn't make this persistent that it takes years of this behavior before anyone treats it as real. So what turns a week into years? Macroscope made the point this morning that perceptions set during a real market event can last entire careers. That's what's being built right now. In firms that allocate trillions based on what they remember and the money's already moving. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in over 52,000 Bitcoin last month. That's the strongest month since November of 2024. So we've just spent 10 minutes on what the

8:22institutions think Bitcoin is. Let's talk about what it is to you because there's a real difference between having exposure to Bitcoin and actually owning it. And that's why this show is sponsored by Bitkey. Bitkey is self custody without this single point of failure. It's multi-sigged by default. So it takes two or three keys to move your funds. Your phone, the hardware device, and a secure recovery key. With Bitkey there's no seed phrase to hide, protect, or lose, and recovery and inheritance are built right in. The new Bitkey even has a screen so you can verify transactions on the device instead of trusting your phone. Visit bitkey.world.forge.sash truth and use my promo code for 10% of the new Bitkey. All right, so that's what's happening to Bitcoin. Now let's talk about what they're planning to do about the debt underneath all of it. Lin Alden got asked a version of the same question this whole episode has been circling. Why did Bitcoin react that hard to a policy move that was in the grand scheme of things pretty small? But I think that the reactions make sense. Not necessarily because the actual macro moves are going to be this big, but because it gives us

9:24new information about what Secretary of Bessent wakes up and wants to do every day. It gives us a signal about what their intentions and goals are either at least leading up to the midterms that potentially throughout the rest of the administration. That whenever things heal a little tough, he's going to get dubbish in various capacities. I think we saw some of that with the Fed too, which is the Fed's not, obviously we have a above target inflation right now and they're being somewhat coy with what their play is for industry rates. I mean, they say no they would have less forward guidance, but they're also just being opaque in general. They're unclear and kind of not super clear. And so for multiple reasons, people kind of looking at that and say, okay, there's no play for the deficit. They're going to intervene. They're going to do financial oppression. So, buy hard money. So the size was never the point. The signal was, we learned what the Treasury Secretary reaches for when things get uncomfortable. And once you know that, you know what he reaches

10:26for next time. Because just look at the box the Fed is in. James lavish laid it out in a post this week. If the Fed raises rates, government interest expenses go up, deficits get bigger, Treasury has the issue more debt, and long-term rates go higher. If the Fed cuts rates, bond investors get scared about inflation, they demand more premium to lend, and long-term rates go higher. That's two scenarios with the same result. And Lou Gromans had the same thing last week and added the part that matters. The rules are different under fiscal dominance, and most of the market is still playing by the old rules. And while Washington was working through that, the President of the European Commission stood up in Paris and explained what she wants to do with 10 trillion euros sitting in ordinary bank accounts. Lazy, that's her word for money that European workers earned and chose not to spend.

11:28She says she has to put it to the service of European companies. The plan is to secure it and supervise it. Savings are stored labor. A European worker earned that money, chose not to spend it, and kept it liquid because the opportunities in front of him weren't good. And if Brussels wants to know why that money isn't moving, their own competitiveness review has the answer. European companies pay two to three times what Americans pay for electricity. That 10 trillion sitting still is a signal about what it's worth building in Europe. Brussels heard the signal and decided to manage the people sending it. Which brings up the only question that actually matters here. If money that sits in an account can get reclassified as lazy, where do you put savings you actually intend to keep? That's why the show is sponsored by the Bitcoin Way. The Bitcoin Way offers one-on-one white club council from real human Bitcoin experts. Anything from your self-custody setup to running your own node, to locking down your security. And even inheritance planning so that people you love can actually receive what you built. No question is too basic for the Bitcoin Way. So visit thebitcoinway.com forward sash early and your first 30-minute consultation is completely

12:32free. Alright, let's zoom out and let's talk about gold. Because gold has been the smart answer to all of this for two years running. Gold ripped through 2025 while Bitcoin went sideways. Central banks spotted by the ton. That was the trade and it was the right trade. But Lin Alden thinks it's turning. She said this week that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio looks like it's bottoming and that she's bullish on Bitcoin on a 2-to-3 year view. Eric Yakes put a number on what that actually looks like. You know, as that expands and gold continues to move the way it does, if Bitcoin continues to do that, then I think it's like we see very small basis point percentages of the marketing gold start to move Bitcoin. It is just like, okay, gold could go to 10,000. Gold could potentially go higher than that. But we could watch Bitcoin run from 80K up to 800K and in that same period. And I think people are going to view the return potential and you know, the riskiness of Bitcoin is valuable. Once they just get very comfortable to stand.

13:32That's the scenario, but he's clear about the condition. Bitcoin has to build a track record of behaving like a debatement hedge first. So that asset managers get comfortable with the downside. Yakes isn't describing the world dumping their gold. He's describing a few basis points of the gold market moving. And we already know the size difference. Gold is a $30 trillion market and Bitcoin is around 1.5. So a rotation like that doesn't require the world to change its mind. It requires a rounding error to change its mind. So go back through this week and look at what actually happened to prices. The Japanese 10 year is a managed price. The yen is a managed price. The long end of the US curve is a managed price and everybody knows it. And 10 trillion euros of European household savings is on its way to becoming a managed price. And the woman managing it has already told you what she thinks of you for saving it in the first place. Bitcoin is the only number on that list that nobody was managing. And it's the only one that went up. And here's the part I keep coming back to. Every bit of this Bitcoin did on the signal alone. Bitcoin went from

14:3264K to 81K. That's 25% in a week. And it came off an announcement. Not printed money, an announcement. Nobody has actually printed a single dollar in response to any of this yet. So the honest question is what Bitcoin does when the money actually shows up. So what do you think? Did something real change this week? Did this Bitcoin go rag back to trading like a tech stock the moment the bond market calms down? Is the rotation out of gold and into Bitcoin actually starting? And where do you think Bitcoin tops out this cycle? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and don't forget to like the video and share it with somebody who still thinks Bitcoin is just the Nasdeck with extra steps. And don't forget to subscribe to simply Bitcoin if you haven't already for analysis like this every single day. Thanks for watching. Have a great Labor Day weekend and I'll see you next week.